Saturday, August 27, 2016

Del Mar recap + Travers 2016 video

In case you missed it at The Runaway Horse, here is my Del Mar recap followed by my Travers 2016 video analysis.



Del Mar Weekly Recap (Aug 17-21)

Wednesday, August 17

Fast main track and firm turf course. One wire-to-wire winner in the 5.5f opener on dirt. The winning turf course running styles were a stalker at five furlongs, a stalker at 8.5f, and a stalker at one mile (rail at 30 feet).

Two turf wins for jockey Jamie Theriot.

Tara's Tango returned from a vacation and turned back in distance to take the G3 Rancho Bernardo Handicap for Martin Garcia and Jerry Hollendorfer. She will probably return to the route game in the near future.

Thursday, August 18

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt (5.5f, 8f). The winning turf course running styles were a stalker at one mile, a  patient runner at one mile, and a stalker at eleven furlongs (rail at 30 feet).

Flavien Prat and Phil D’Amato teamed up for two turf wins.

Friday, August 19

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two wire-to-wire winners at 5.5f on dirt. The winning turf course running styles were a stalker at 8.5f, a patient midpack runner at one mile, and a stalker at eleven furlongs (rail at 30 feet).

Rafael Bejarano and Iggy Puglisi both booted home a pair.

Frenzified enjoyed the eleven furlong turf jouney and picked up her first US win in the CTT and TOC Handicap. Santiago Gonzalez rode the winner for James Cassidy.

Saturday, August 20

Fast main track and firm turf course. California Chrome was the only wire-to-wire main track winner on Pacific Classic Day. The winning turf course running styles were a last-to-first closer at 8.5f, a patient runner at 9f, a forwardly placed runner at 11f, and a patient runner at a flat mile.

Martin Garcia and Gary Stevens both booted home a pair.

The highly anticipated Pacific Classic was over as soon as they broke from the gate. For some inexplicable reason, the competition, notably Dortmund and Beholder, let California Chrome coast along on an uncontested lead through moderate splits and the outcome was eerily similar to Game On Dude's Pacific Classic romp in 2013.

The no passing zone signs were out in full force as Beholder chased throughout in second with Dortmund (3rd), Hoppertunity (4th), Dalmore (5th), and Imperative (6th) all basically running in place from start to finish.

Come on guys, at least make Chrome break a sweat and work hard for the money like Luis Saez and Go Maggie Go did in the Alabama. Saez went right after Songbird from the start and made her earn the win and she did just that but at least it was a horse race instead of a coronation.

My top choices suffered tough losses in the other two stakes races. Stays in Vegas appeared home free in the Del Mar Oaks but Harmonize and Decked Out both nipped her in the very late stages.

In the Del Mar Handicap, Ashleyluvssugar had a clear lead and held off my charging top Metaboss to win by a desperate nose. Gary Stevens stole this one and the beats do not come tougher than this!

Sunday, August 21

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two wire-to--wire winners on dirt (5.5f, 6f). The winning turf course running styles were a front runner at one mile, a stalker at 8.5 furlongs, and patient runner at five furlongs.  

Hat trick for Rafael Bejarano. Two wins for Stewart Elliott. Phil D'Amato and Chris Hartman both saddled two winners.

Midnight Storm is fast and sharp and went all the way in the G2 Del Mar Mile, holding off Om by a 1/2 length and earning a 106 BSF. The latter ran a big race off the bench and the top two were well clear of show finisher Ohio.

TRAVERS 2016 VIDEO ANALYSIS

Saturday, August 20, 2016

Del Mar's Pacific Classic 2016 video preview featuring California Chrome, Beholder, and Dortmund

In case you missed it at The Runaway Horse, here is my Del Mar week 5 recap + Pacific Classic video preview.



Wednesday, August 10

Fast main track and firm turf course. Three wire-to-wire winners on dirt (6f, 6f, 6.5f). The winning turf course running styles were a stalker at five furlongs, a front runner at one mile, a patient runner at one mile, and and a stalker at 8.5f (rail at 30 feet).

Kent Desormeaux, Santiago Gonzalez, and Flavien Prat each booted home a pair.

Thursday, August 11

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt (8f, 5.5f). The winning turf course running styles were a front runner at one mile, a patient runner at one mile, and and a stalker at five furlongs (rail at 30 feet).

Rafael Bejarano booted home a pair on turf. Mike Puype saddled two winners at one mile on dirt.

Friday, August 12

Fast main track and firm turf course. Only one wire-to-wire winner on dirt (5.5f). The winning turf course running styles were a patient runner at one mile, a stalker at one mile, and a patient runner at five furlongs (rail at 12 feet).

Norberto Arroyo Jr. booted home a pair.

Why Two stalked, pounced, and kicked away to win the Green Flash Handcap by a length and a half for Arroya/Machowsky. My top choice Richard's Boy was 2nd and 55-1 outsider Horse Laugh was up for the show.

Saturday, August 13

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two wire-to-wire winners on dirt (5.5f, 6.5f). The winning turf course running styles were a stalker at 8.5f, a closer at 8.5f, and patient runner at eleven furlongs, and a front runner at nine furlongs (rail at 12 feet).

Santiago Gonzalez guided home four winners. Rafael Bejarano rode three winners and Tyler Baze booted home a pair.

Baffert first timer Big Gray Rocket took a ton of money in the 7th race but blew the break and ended up 2nd behind 14-1 LA-bred debut winner Superior Status (Baze/Mullins). One race later, Baffert the prize he really wanted when Klimt easily captured the G2 Best Pal Stakes over Big League and Thirstforlife.

Sunday, August 14

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two wire-to-wire winners at 5.5 furlongs on dirt. The winning turf course running styles were a front runner at five furlongs, a stalker at one mile, a front runner at one mile, and a stalker at one mile (rail at 12 feet).

Rafael Bejarano and Flavien Prat both booted home a pair.

Bob Baffert was at in again on Sunday with smart debut 2-year-old filly winner American Gal. Fellow first timer Partyinthepaddock was clearly second best and another Baffert firster Facts of Life was along for the show.

My Sunday Best Bet Majestic Heat did not have an easy go of it but she did hold on by a nose from the outside post in the Solana Beach Handicap. 14-1 longshot Tiz a Kiss just missed and second betting choice Singing Kitty checked in 3rd.

Pacific Classic Video Analysis

This is the race we have been waiting for! Defending champion Beholder will take on California Chrome and Dortmund in what figures to be an outstanding renewal of the Pacific Classic. The supporting stakes on Saturday are the G2 Del Mar Handicap and G1 Del Mar Oaks.

The G2 Del Mar Mile on Sunday, Aug 21 wraps up the biggest graded stakes weekend of the meet.

Saturday, August 13, 2016

2016 Secretariat Stakes handicapping video featuring Beach Patrol and Long Island Sound

The Grade I Secretariat Stakes from Arlington Park attracted a nine horse field including likely favorites Beach Patrol and Long Island Sound.


Del Mar week 4 recap: Exciting juveniles Champagne Room, Straight Fire impress

In case you missed it at The Runaway Horse, here is my week four recap from Del Mar.



Wednesday, August 3

Fast main track and firm turf course. Three wire-to-wire winners on dirt (5.5f, 8f, 5.5f). The winning turf course running styles were a patient runner at five furlongs and a stalker sitting in 3rd behind a runaway early leader at one mile (rail at 30 feet).

No riding or training doubles on Wednesday.

Green With Eddie ($4.60) pressed the pace from the outside post and kicked away to post a 3-1/2 length win in the Graduation Stakes for Mario Gutierrez, Doug O'Neill, and Reddam Racing. California Diamond was 2nd and Milton Freewater (also O'Neill) was another length back in 3rd.

Thursday, August 4

Fast main track and firm turf course. Two wire-to-wire winners late in the card (6th and 8th races) on dirt (6f, 5f). The winning turf course running styles were a pace presser at five furlongs and a stalker at a mile and a sixteenth (rail at 30 feet).

Santiago Gonzalez and Wesley Ward teamed up for two turf wins.

Arrogate auditioned for the Travers against two rivals and was a very comfortable 1-3/4 length winner under Rafael Bejarano after sitting at the back of the compact field for the first half-mile or so. The Baffert/Juddmonte runner is lightly raced and talented.

Friday, August 5

Fast main track and firm turf course. Three wire-to-wire winners on dirt (6.5f, 5.5f, 5.5f). The winning turf course running styles were a midpack stalker at 8.5f, an outside stalker at one mile, and an inside stalker at five furlongs (rail at 18 feet).

No riding or training doubles on Friday.

So Sweetitiz stalked and pounced her way to a 4-1 victory in the Daisyutter Handicap under leading rider Flavien Prat. Late Spring got 2nd by a head over Long Hot Summer. Post time favorite and defending champ Shrinking Violet stalked and weakened to finish 7th. She is in foal to American Pharoah.

Saturday, August 6

Fast main track and firm turf course. Only one wire-to-wire winner on dirt (Straight Fire – 6.5f). The winning turf course running styles were a front runner at 8.5f, a stalker at a flat mile, a front runner at one mile, and a front runner at 8.5f (rail at 18 feet).

Kent Desormeaux and Joe Talamo both booted home a pair.

Champagne Room got the better of Miss Southern Miss in the G2 Sorrento with front runner Auntjenn checking in 3rd. The winner was graduating in her second career start and the top two finishers should both get better as distances increase.

Straight Fire put on a show for Team Desormeaux in his fast, romping maiden win at six and one-half furlongs. The aforementioned Sorrento girls stopped the clock in 1:16.35 and the son of Dominus got the same distance in 1:14.94 (98 BSF).

Speed was strong on turf and Free Rose ($59.80) took full advantage in the G3 La Jolla for Talamo/Baltas. Lucky Bryan was 2nd and Moonlight Drive was 3rd. Monster Bea, the upset winner of the Oceanside, ended up an even 4th as the overbet favorite.

Sunday, August 7

Fast main track and firm turf course. No wire-to-wire winners on dirt. The winning turf course running styles were a stalker at five furlongs, a patient runner at 8.5f, and a stalker at one mile (rail at 18 feet). 

Hat trick for Rafael Bejarano.

Noted and Quoted ran into subsequent G2 Sorrento winner Champagne Room in her debut and had no trouble graduating (1st by 9.5 lengths) second time out for Bejarano/Baffert.

Sobradora Inc ($20.40) made her US debut a winning one for Bejarano/Callaghan in a competitive renewal of the Osunitas. The pace fell apart in this one and the winner was able to outfinish Prize Exhibit by a 1/2 length with Elektrum another head back in 3rd.

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If you are interested in full card analysis, I am selling DEL MAR full cards each weekend at The Runaway Horse. You can check out full card recaps with highlights on our What You Missed page.


I also post free daily tickets from DEL MAR at Pick 6 Blog. You can also read my recaps at Pick 6 Blog.  

Photo by Stacy Edwards

Saturday, August 6, 2016

2016 West Virginia Derby video featuring Cupid and Suddenbreakingnews

The 2016 edition of the Grade 2 West Virginia Derby features two strong contenders with very different running styles.

Morning line favorite Cupid likes to get involved from the opening bell and figures to do just that from the inside post. He might get brave if able to sneak away early.

Likely second betting choice Suddenbreakingnews likes to sit at the back of the pack and make a big late run. He owns a powerful kick when on his game and is training well for this event.

Mo Tom and Economic Model were expected to take betting action but both horses have been scratched.

Tuesday, August 2, 2016

Del Mar week 3 recap: Stellar Wind beats Beholder and American Cleopatra wins debut

The third week of live racing is in the books at Del Mar and highlights included Stellar Wind upending Beholder in the Clement L Hirsch and American Pharaoh's sister American Cleopatra winning her debut.



Wednesday, July 27

Fast main track and firm turf course. The dirt speed bias that appeared on Sunday, July 17 finally disappeared. There were no wire-to-wire winners on the dirt oval Wednesday. The winning turf course running styles were a stalker at five furlongs and a closer at 8.5 furlongs (rail at 24 feet).

Rafael Bejarano booted home a pair.

Gold Rush Dancer made a smooth transition from turf-to-dirt to capture the Real Good Deal Stakes at odds of 14-1 under jockey Flavien Prat. Tough it Out was 2nd and Mrazek finished 3rd.

I got home the late Pick 4 on July 27 at Pick 6 Blog. The winning .50 cent Late Pick 4 ticket paid $588.55.

Thursday, July 28

Fast main track and firm turf course. Forwardly placed runners performed well on dirt and there was one wire job winner in the 5.5f finale. The winning turf course running styles were a dueling early runner at five furlongs, a patient type at one mile, and another patient runner at eleven furlongs (rail at 24 feet).

I am offering Del Mar weekend full cards and they are available to purchase on The Runaway Horse Sales Page.

I am also posting daily free Del Mar picks on The Runaway Horse Free Picks Page and bonus free Del Mar plays here.

Friday, July 29

Fast main track and firm turf course. Forwardly placed runners performed well on dirt and there was one wire job winner at 5.5f. The winning turf course running styles were a dueling early runner at one mile, a stalker at a mile and a sixteenth, and a front runner at a mile and a sixteenth (rail at 12 feet).

Three wins for leading rider Flavien Prat. Jamie Theriot booted home a pair.

You're Late beat Love a Honeybadger and race favorite My California in the CTBA Stakes. Stewart Elliott rode the winner for Jeff Bonde.

With Honors (Keith Desormeaux) and Elwood J (Jerry Hollendofer) both looked good winning juvenile races on Friday.

Saturday, July 30

Fast main track and firm turf course. Four wire-to-wire winners on dirt (5.5f, 5.5f, 8f, 5.5f). The winning turf course running styles were a patient runner at 9f, a front runner at five furlongs, and a closer at one mile (rail at 12 feet).

Tyler Baze and Victor Espinoza both booted home a pair.

An impressive maiden win turned in by Big League in the 3rd race. What'sontheagenda was a clear 2nd and Blame Joe was up for the show. Peter Miller trains the winner for Rockingham Ranch.

Trainer Jeff Bonde won another 2-year-old filly race with Miss Sunset.

Stellar Wind turned the tables on Beholder in a stellar renewal of the G1 Clement L. Hirsch. Beholder looked like the controlling speed on paper but Victor Espinoza put Stellar Wind in the race earlier and that made all the difference.

Sunday, July 31

Fast main track and firm turf course. Forwardly placed runners performed well on dirt with two wire-to-wire winners (5.5f, 6.5f). The winning turf course running styles were a patient runner at 9f, a stalker at one mile, and a midpack stalker at 5f (rail at 12 feet). 

Stewart Elliott booted home a pair. Bob Baffert saddled three winners and Elliott rode two. 

American Pharoah's juvenile sister American Cleopatra was seemingly dead on the board at 7-1 but that did not stop her from going virtually wire-to-wire and easily graduating in her debut. Everybody was so focused on the winner after the race that they forgot about the excellent effort turned in by runner-up Union Strike. The Union Rags first timer broke slow and showed professionalism while racing along the inside, splitting horses in traffic, and finishing a clear 2nd after finding racing room in the lane.

Lord Nelson sat a perfect outside stalking trip en route to an easy four length score in the G1 Bing Crosby. He has turned into one of the top sprinters in the country for Bob Baffert.

* American Pharoah photo by Stacy Edwards