Video analysis of the Grade 3, $300,000 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs (9-12-26). This is the first Kentucky Derby 2027 points race.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Saturday, September 12, 2026
Woodbine Mile 2026 Analysis (9-12-26)
Using past-performance data from the Complete Digest, I break down the field, examine the numbers, and identify the contenders.
Woodbine Mile Field
1. Deterministic (2-1)
Deterministic enters the Woodbine Mile in excellent form for trainer Miguel Clement and jockey Kendrick Carmouche.
The 5-year-old is 10-for-16 in his career with three seconds and a third-place finish. He is also 3-for-3 this year and already owns multiple Grade 1 victories, including the Fourstardave at Saratoga on Aug. 8.
Deterministic figures to be forwardly placed from the inside post. His ability to establish a good cruising speed could be an important asset, particularly if he gets an uncontested lead.
However, this one-turn mile presents a slightly different challenge. Much of Deterministic’s success has come at longer distances, including a mile and an eighth and a mile and three-sixteenths.
His strength is his determination and ability to keep fighting once he reaches the stretch. The concern is whether he can outkick horses with a stronger closing burst.
2. Gas Me Up (12-1)
Gas Me Up is looking to repeat his successful pattern from last year.
He won the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes last year before finishing third in the Woodbine Mile. He has now won the King Edward again, taking this year’s renewal by a nose.
The horse has six starts at Woodbine, with four victories and a third-place finish, and he is a three-time winner at one mile.
His 146 final-time rating in the King Edward was solid, but this year’s Woodbine Mile appears deeper. At 12-1 on the morning line, however, he could be interesting for the exotics.
3. Notable Speech (1-1)
Notable Speech is the morning-line favorite and strictly the horse to beat.
The Godolphin runner is trained by Charles Appleby and will be ridden by William Buick, who regularly rides the horse.
Notable Speech has won nine of 18 career starts and has earned nearly $4 million. He won this race last year before adding another major victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
He has also won two Group 1 races overseas this year, further establishing his credentials at the highest level.
Most importantly, Notable Speech owns the strongest closing kick in this field. That could prove decisive if Deterministic is in front turning for home.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Pocahontas Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (9-12-26)
Video analysis of the Grade 3, $300,000 Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs (9-12-26). This is the first Kentucky Oaks 2027 points race.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Super Derby 2026 Video Analysis (9-12-26)
Video analysis of the $250,000 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs (9-12-26).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes Analysis (9-9-26)
Kentucky Downs presents a unique challenge for young horses. Its undulating turf course can be difficult to navigate, and some horses handle the course considerably better than others. With several runners stretching out in distance, switching surfaces, or making their Kentucky Downs debuts, local experience could be especially important in this race.
The following analysis uses past performance data from Today’s Racing Digest’s Complete Digest.
Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes Field
#1 Sir Hansen (8-1)
Sir Hansen won his debut at Ellis Park going one mile on good turf, tracking the pace before finishing in a dead heat for the victory. He earned a 107 final-time rating and finished with a strong 24.3-second final fraction.
Flavien Prat takes over in the saddle, which could be a significant positive. From the inside post, Sir Hansen should have an opportunity to save ground while staying reasonably close to the pace.
He looks like a legitimate contender if he can improve his speed figures in his second start.
#2 Caribbean Warrior (15-1)
Caribbean Warrior improved when he stretched out and switched to turf in his second career start at Ellis Park. He went wire to wire at one mile and earned a 107 final-time rating.
His 85 Fire Number is the one of the best in the field, and he figures to be involved in the pace again.
The presence of a next-out winner among the horses he defeated last time is another positive.
#3 Agate (12-1)
Agate is one of the more interesting horses in the race.
After debuting at five furlongs on turf, he stretched out to one mile at Ellis Park and responded with a convincing victory. He was involved throughout the race, then kicked away to win by more than four lengths.
His final-time rating improved from 92 to 113, while his pace rating climbed to 117. He also finished with a strong 24.4-second final fraction.
Agate has already shown that he can handle the mile, and another improvement could put him right in the mix.
#4 Otherworldly (12-1)
Otherworldly ships in from Ireland for trainer Joseph O’Brien and will have John Velazquez aboard.
He has raced three times in turf sprints overseas, finishing second twice. His most recent effort came at seven furlongs on yielding turf, where he finished second in a 15-horse field.
The lack of U.S. past-performance figures makes him more difficult to evaluate, but his overseas form suggests he deserves some respect. At a morning-line price of 12-1, he could offer value underneath.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Dueling Grounds Oaks 2026 Analysis (9-9-26)
The past-performance information used in this analysis is provided by Today’s Racing Digest, whose Complete Digest product includes the speed, pace, and past-performance information used here.
The Dueling Grounds Oaks Field
1. Bless Her (15-1)
Bless Her is trained by Graham Motion and will have John Velazquez aboard. She was fourth of eight in the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks last time out at 14-1.
She is 2-for-7 overall, with a second and a third in addition to her two victories. One important consideration is her lasix history: her two wins and a nose defeat came when she was racing with lasix. She will not have lasix for this race.
Bless Her has enough tactical speed to potentially secure a forward position, particularly because this field doesn’t contain a confirmed front-runner.
2. Charm of Venice (20-1)
Charm of Venice is 20-1 on the morning line and will make her first start for trainer Brendan Walsh. Brian Hernandez Jr. gets the mount.
She won at 1 5/16 miles on soft turf in Ireland on June 20. The biggest question is where she fits from a class standpoint against this American group.
Walsh has had solid results with horses shipping in from overseas, so this is a horse worth keeping an eye on despite the lack of U.S. speed-figure data.
3. Haute Diva (10-1)
Haute Diva is trained by Patrick Biancone. She was sixth in the Grade 2 Beverly D. at Colonial Downs last time out, where she faced older fillies and mares.
That class drop back into a race restricted to three-year-olds could help. She earned a 131 final-time rating in that Beverly D. effort and previously posted a 134 on an all-weather surface in a stakes race.
She may need to improve slightly to win here, but the return to her own age group is encouraging.
4. Turner’s Charm (10-1)
Turner’s Charm is another Brendan Walsh trainee, with Ben Curtis returning to ride.
She missed by just a head in the Pucker Up Stakes at Ellis Park on August 2, rallying from off the pace in a 1 1/8-mile turf race. She earned a 135 final-time rating in that effort, an improvement over her previous numbers.
Her past performances suggest that longer distances have brought out her best. Her three longest races have also been her three best efforts, including victories at 1 1/16 miles and the strong second-place finish at 1 1/8 miles.
That makes the 1 5/16-mile distance particularly interesting.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Monday, September 7, 2026
Del Mar Closing Day Stakes Analysis (9-7-26)
Using the past-performance data from Today’s Racing Digest’s Complete Digest, here’s a look at both stakes races, including projected Fire Numbers, CPR Ratings, Fast Figs, and Final Time Ratings.
Race 6 – I’m Smokin’ Stakes
The I’m Smokin’ Stakes is for 2-year-olds bred in California and will be contested at six furlongs on Del Mar’s main track.
The distance has generally favored speed horses. In 21 races at six furlongs, front-runners have won 57% of the time, while pressers have accounted for nearly 29% of the victories. Midpack runners have won about 9.5% and horses coming from farther back less than 5%.
That makes this a particularly important race for horses with tactical or early speed.
The Field
- #1 Little King (6-1) – Maiden after two starts
- #2 Prime Splash (20-1) – Expected to show speed
- #3 Cupid Cowboy (8-1) – Maiden winner at 52-1 odds
- #4 Fumano’s Fire (15-1) – Expected to show speed
- #5 Empire of Ash (6-1) – Maiden second-time starter
- #6 Net Par (8-5) – Graduation Stakes winner
- #7 Early Encore (8-5) – Third in the Graduation Stakes
Speed and Pace Forecasts
The Today’s Racing Digest speed-and-pace forecast gives Little King some of the strongest individual numbers in the field.
Little King earned an 85 Fire Number in his debut, indicating strong speed throughout that race. He also recorded a 129 CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating) in that first start, along with a 129 Final Time Rating.
However, his numbers dropped considerably in his second race. His Final Time Rating fell to 93, meaning the key question is whether he can return to the level he demonstrated in his debut.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
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