With multiple early-pressing types entered, the fractions should be honest, creating opportunities for stalkers and late runners. Here’s a horse-by-horse look at the field.
Pace Outlook
Four horses possess enough early speed to make this an honest race from a race flow standpoint.
Simply Joking, Seismic Beauty, A Thousand Miles, and Euromia all figure to be involved during the opening stages. Whether they engage in a prolonged battle—or one horse clears without pressure—will likely determine the final outcome.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
#1 Chasten (4-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Chasten enters this race in outstanding form after dominating a listed stakes at Delaware Park by open lengths. She has improved significantly this season, posting some of the best speed figures of her career while winning two stakes races.
Although both victories came in listed company rather than graded stakes, she previously held her own against much tougher competition when racing wide early and splitting a 10-horse field in a Grade 1 at Churchill Downs. She didn’t threaten the winner that afternoon, but she wasn’t disgraced against a deep cast.
The rail draw should allow Florent Geroux to secure a ground-saving trip behind the early leaders. If a fast pace develops, Chasten might get first run turning for home.
#2 Hey Jesse (12-1)
Trainer: Sean McCarthy
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Hey Jesse is somewhat of a wildcard.
Most of her success has come on turf, where she’s won three races, but she did win her lone dirt start. She exits a fifth-place finish in the Possibly Perfect Stakes on grass and now returns to the main track.
Her closing style could benefit if the early leaders soften each other up, but she’ll likely need significant pace help to threaten this field.
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