Santa Anita Park Stakes Analysis (5-23-26)

I’m taking a deep dive into all five California-bred stakes races at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, May 23, using the past performances and proprietary ratings from Today’s Racing Digest. The data throughout this analysis comes from the Complete Digest, which remains one of the most valuable handicapping tools for identifying pace advantages, class edges, and projected performance figures.

We’ll go race by race through the stakes action, breaking down the projected pace scenarios, key speed figures, and the horses I believe offer the strongest wagering value.

Race 3 – Thor’s Echo Stakes

6 Furlongs – Dirt – California-Breds

The first stakes race on the card drew a seven-horse field, and this race profile strongly favors speed. Front-runners at this six-furlong distance have been winning at a high percentage, so tactical position should be critical from the opening break.

Formidable Favorite: Big City Lights

The horse to beat is clearly Big City Lights, and the projections back that up across every major category.

Rating	Big City Lights
Fire Number	100
CPR	153
Fast Fig	132
Final Time Rating	152

The Fire Number measures speed throughout the race, and Big City Lights towers over this field with a projected 100. He also owns the top CPR and Fast Fig, and best Final Time Rating.

Last time out, he returned from a layoff stretching from November to May and immediately fired a winning effort at seven furlongs while earning a 100 Fire Number and a 152 Final Time Rating. That race confirmed he came back every bit as sharp as before.

His dirt sprint record at Santa Anita is especially impressive:

• 8 dirt sprint wins overall
• 6 wins from 8 Santa Anita dirt sprint starts
• Consistent in virtually every effort

Kazushi Kimura rides back for Richard Mandella, and this proven class edge makes Big City Lights the clear horse to beat.

Other Horses to Consider

Lonesome Stew has tactical speed and enough back class to compete if the favorite falters. His prior 150 Final Time Rating shows he is capable on his best day.

Uncle Chilly enters sharp off back-to-back victories and continues improving, although this is a meaningful class rise.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Paradise Creek Stakes Analysis (5-23-26)

The seventh race at Aqueduct on Saturday, May 23 is the $150,000 Paradise Creek Stakes, a six-furlong turf sprint for three-year-olds on the outer turf course. This competitive field features a pair of inside pace players, multiple stakes-tested runners, and a few improving types that could take a step forward at the right time.

Using the past performances from Today’s Racing Digest, I broke down the field from both a pace and figure standpoint to determine which runners are most likely to get the right trip and deliver their best effort.

Projected Pace Scenario

The pace complexion looks fairly straightforward on paper. Chasing Freedom and Track Tiger appear to be the primary speed influences, with both runners showing consistent front-end intent in recent starts.

From the rail, Chasing Freedom should be aggressive early after wiring a field at Fair Grounds in his maiden victory. However, I do not expect him to get an uncontested lead here.

Track Tiger has tactical speed and picks up aggressive rider Kendrick Carmouche, who is unlikely to concede early position. Just behind those two, horses like Intricate Spirit and Twilight Delight should work out stalking trips within striking range.

Closers such as Azizam and Itza Lock may benefit if the pace becomes heated, but this race does not project to collapse the way the Palisades Stakes did at Keeneland.

Digest Figure Analysis

1 – Chasing Freedom

Chasing Freedom earned a 146 Pace Rating and 128 Final Time Rating in his maiden victory at Fair Grounds. The numbers are respectable, especially for a lightly raced horse making his first start against winners.

The key question is whether he can reproduce that effort while stretching from five and a half furlongs to six furlongs against significantly tougher company.

2 – Track Tiger

Track Tiger owns some of the stronger sprint credentials in the field. Two starts back, he wired an allowance field with a 140 Pace Rating and 144 Final Time Rating while earning a 96 Fire Number.

Last time out, he finished second as the favorite in the John Shear Stakes after setting the pace throughout. The concern is whether softer ground at Aqueduct could dull his California-based speed profile if forecasted rain impacts the course condition.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Santa Anita Park Analysis (5-22-26)

I’m taking a look at all nine races on the Friday card at Santa Anita Park, and there’s added value on the program thanks to a Pick 6 carryover beginning in Race 4. I’ll be using data from the Complete Digest, including Fire Numbers, CPR ratings, Fast Figs, and Final Time Ratings to break down the card race by race.

Race 1 — Starter Optional Claiming — 1 Mile Turf

The Digest numbers point clearly toward Rehearsal, who owns the best overall profile in the field with strong Fire Numbers, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Rating figures. She’s the obvious contender on paper.

Wildfire Princess has a legitimate chance to control the pace while stretching back out around two turns. She already proved she can handle this distance when winning a maiden claiming event at Del Mar last fall at one mile, and she followed that effort with a competitive third-place finish routing at Santa Anita.

Her recent sprint races weren’t bad at all, especially the runner-up finish going 6 ½ furlongs on turf in February. Juan Hernandez climbs back aboard, and that’s a major positive considering he guided her to one of her better recent efforts.

Race 2 — Maiden Special Weight (Cal-Breds) — 6 Furlongs Dirt

This race looks fairly straightforward. Otto’s Magic owns the strongest projected numbers across the board, including the top Fire Number, CPR, and Final Time Rating.

At even money on the morning line there’s not a lot of wagering value, but from a pure handicapping standpoint this horse simply looks best.

Race 3 — $32,000 Claiming — 6 Furlongs Turf

The Digest projections strongly favor Cosmo Friday, who is expected to post the top Fire Number, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Rating.

What catches my eye is the return to the rider combination that already produced a win earlier this meet. Emisael Jaramillo guided this filly to a maiden claiming victory on March 13 going six furlongs on turf, and if she reproduces that effort she can absolutely beat favorite Eva Lea.

Race 4 — Maiden Special Weight — 1 Mile Dirt

This race kicks off the Pick 6 carryover sequence, and I think it runs through Decisive Win.

Broheim actually owns the best projected Digest numbers, but I have concerns about the surface switch. His better efforts have come on turf, and I’m not convinced the dirt route is what he truly wants.

Decisive Win exits what looks like a key race. In his debut he dueled early against Crudo Velocity, who has since won multiple races including the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile while earning triple-digit speed figures. Civil Liberty, another horse exiting that race, also returned to win next out.

That race experience matters, and now Doug O’Neill stretches this colt out around two turns with Antonio Fresu returning aboard.

Race 5 — Starter Allowance — 6 Furlongs Turf

This is one of the more competitive races on the card from a numbers standpoint. Several runners share similar Final Time Ratings, and the projections are spread among multiple horses.

I really like the cutback in distance for Burning Rubber. This gelding already owns multiple strong turf sprint efforts, including a maiden win at six furlongs and another victory at 6 ½ furlongs with Juan Hernandez aboard.

Last time out he stretched back to a mile and still ran competitively, earning a solid figure despite finishing fourth. Returning to a sprint feels like the right move.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Belmont Stakes 2026 Video Preview

Belmont Stakes 2026 video preview. Early hopefuls: Chief Wallabee, Chip Honcho, Commandment, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, Growth Equity, Ocelli, Ottinho, Potente, Renegade.

The Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, June 6, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.       

Preakness Stakes 2026 Video Recap

In this horse racing video, I recap the 2026 Preakness Stakes. 

The 151st Preakness Stakes was held at Laurel Park on Saturday, May 16, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.       

Preakness Stakes 2026 Collaboration Video

In this horse racing video, The Runaway Horse and Trackside Profits team up to analyze the 2026 Preakness Stakes. 

The 151st Preakness Stakes will be held at Laurel Park on Saturday, May 16, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.      

Preakness Stakes 2026 Analysis at Laurel Park

The 2026 Preakness Stakes takes place at Laurel Park this year while Pimlico undergoes construction, and this year’s edition shapes up as a fascinating pace and trip handicap. Using the numbers and pace figures from the Digest past performances, I’m looking for the horses most likely to capitalize on what should be an aggressive early pace.

This is my hometown race, and I’ve been following the Preakness since 1980. I’ve covered full Preakness Day cards online since the 1990s, and this race often rewards horses that can adapt to pace pressure while still finishing strongly in the final furlong.

Pace Makes the Race

This year’s Preakness projects to feature a contested early pace with several runners preferring to race forwardly placed. That dynamic could dramatically influence the outcome.

Horse	Running Style	Key Figure
Taj Mahal	Front Runner	152 Pace Rating
Napoleon Solo	Speed	180 Pace Rating
Pretty Boy Miah	Forwardly Placed	Back-to-back 143 FTRs
Chip Honcho	Pressing Style	132 Final Time Rating
Incredibolt	Closer	152 Final Time Rating

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1 – Taj Mahal (5-1)

Taj Mahal improved his Digest numbers in each career start and earned a strong 149 Final Time Rating winning the Tesio Stakes. He blasted out to the early lead despite an outside draw, slowed the pace in the middle stages, and then kicked away again.

From the rail, he figures to go forward again, but unlike the Tesio, he probably won’t get away with relaxing through soft interior fractions. With other speed signed on, the pace pressure should be significantly tougher this time.

2 – Ocelli (6-1)

Ocelli is still a maiden after seven starts, but he outran massive odds in the Kentucky Derby when finishing third at 70-1. He rallied effectively into a collapsing pace and briefly threatened in the stretch before flattening late.

The projected setup helps him again because multiple pace horses should ensure legitimate fractions. The concern is whether he can reproduce that Derby effort while still seeking his first win.

Bettor’s Edge

Closers become far more dangerous in Triple Crown races when several speed horses are committed early. Identifying the likely pace flow is often more important than simply comparing final speed figures.

3 – Crupper (30-1)

Crupper wired the Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn and secured his spot here with that victory. His 134 Final Time Rating was respectable, but his 117 Pace Rating suggests he benefited from softer early fractions than he’ll likely encounter in this race.

To stay involved here, he’ll need to show significantly more speed in the opening stages.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest