Keeneland Fall Meet Stakes Picks (10-4-26)

Keeneland’s Sunday card features three stakes races that offer very different handicapping challenges. The Grade 3 Indian Summer Stakes brings together a talented group of 2-year-old turf sprinters, the Grade 1 Spinster Stakes features a short but accomplished field of fillies and mares, and the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes gives another group of 2-year-olds a chance to establish themselves over a route of ground on turf.

Using the speed, pace, class and final-time ratings from Today’s Racing Digest, here are my top selections and horses to use underneath for all three stakes.

Race 8 — Grade 3 Indian Summer Stakes

$350,000 • 5½ Furlongs • Turf • 2-Year-Olds

The Indian Summer has a fairly balanced distance profile at Keeneland. Front runners, pressers and midpack runners have each won approximately 29% of the races at 5½ furlongs, while horses coming from far back have won less than 12%.

There are several horses capable of showing speed, including overseas shipper Adonius (IRE), Fanshell Beach, Cactus Closer, Ciarlatano, Wood Island and Ruiva. With relatively little confirmed closing speed in the field, a horse capable of securing position without getting caught up in a contested pace might have an advantage. A horse shaking loose early could also be dangerous.

Value Play: #7 Wood Island (7-2)

Wood Island is 2-for-2 in his career. He won his debut at Saratoga going 5½ furlongs on dirt, then came right back and won a stakes race at 5½ furlongs on turf.

His figures also took a major jump between those two races. His final-time rating improved from 119 to 138, while his pace rating increased from 113 to 140.

That’s the kind of progression I want to see from a lightly raced 2-year-old.

George Weaver has a 17% win rate with turf sprinters, and Flavien Prat returns to ride. Prat already knows the horse after riding him in his most recent victory.

Race Favorite: #8 Ruiva (7-5)

Ruiva deserves plenty of respect.

She has run well in all three starts, including a seven-length debut victory at Churchill Downs and a third-place finish in a Group 2 turf sprint stakes race at Ascot (27-horse field).

She then finished second in the Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar, where she battled throughout and finished well clear of the remainder of the field.

Trainer Wesley Ward has plenty of experience with these types of 2-year-old turf horses, and the addition of Irad Ortiz Jr. makes Ruiva particularly dangerous.

The problem is the price.

At 7-5, you’re being asked to take a very short price on a horse who has already lost her last two starts.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Oak Leaf Stakes + American Pharoah Stakes Analysis (10-3-26)

Santa Anita Park has a pair of graded 2-year-old stakes races on Saturday, October 3: the Grade 2 Oak Leaf Stakes and the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes.

The Oak Leaf is a Kentucky Oaks 2027 points race for 2-year-old fillies, while the American Pharoah is a Kentucky Derby 2027 points race for 2-year-olds. Both races also serve as important tests for horses looking to run in the Breeders’ Cup World Championships at Keeneland later this month.

Race 3 — Grade 2 Oak Leaf Stakes

The Oak Leaf Stakes carries a $200,000 purse and will be contested at 1 1/16 miles on the main track. The scheduled post time is 5:01 p.m. Eastern.

1 — Quattro Passi ( 5-2)

Quattro Passi is trained by Bob Baffert and is a $190,000 daughter of Girvin, with Blame as her damsire.

She finished second in her debut, with stablemate Holmby beating her that day. Quattro Passi came back in her second start and romped by more than nine lengths under Mike Smith.

She has drawn outer posts in both of her first two starts but gets the rail here, which should allow her to save ground.

The most encouraging part of her form is her final-time-rating progression. She improved from a 113 in her debut to a 122 in her second start. She also improved while stretching from five furlongs to six furlongs.

Now she’ll have to stretch out again, going from sprint distances to a route, but the improvement pattern is encouraging.

2 — Holmby (9-5)

Holmby is another Baffert trainee and is a $55,000 daughter of Corniche, with Lemon Drop Kid as the damsire.

She won her first two starts, including the Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes. She progressed from five furlongs to six furlongs and then seven furlongs before finishing third in the Debutante at Del Mar.

That last race was disappointing, as she was beaten by a little less than eight lengths.

Her final-time ratings also aren’t moving in the right direction. She went from a 120 in her debut to 119 and then 105.

The pedigree suggests she can handle the distance, but at a 9-5 morning-line price, she may take more money than her recent form warrants.

3 — Domain Expansion (20-1)

Domain Expansion is trained by Leonard Powell and is coming off a runner-up finish in her debut at 20-1.

The interesting factor here is that she already has experience around two turns, having raced one mile on turf.

She’ll switch surfaces for this race, however, and remains a maiden.

She earned a 63 Fire Number, 120 CPR and 105 final-time rating last time.

The question is whether she can transfer that turf form to the main track.

4 — Free Closer (6-1)

Michael McCarthy trains Free Closer, with Joel Rosario scheduled to ride.

Her form has been inconsistent. She won her debut, was beaten by about a dozen lengths in her second start, won the CTBA Stakes by eight lengths, and then was beaten by 10 lengths in the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante.

Her two best races came at her shortest distances — four-and-a-half and five-and-a-half furlongs. Her two longer races, at six and seven furlongs, resulted in double-digit defeats.

That makes the 1 1/16-mile distance a significant question mark.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Champagne Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (10-3-26)

Video analysis of the Grade 1, $500,000 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday, October 3, 2026. 

This is a Kentucky Derby 2027 points race. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Breeders' Futurity 2026 Analysis (10-3-26)

The Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland is set for Saturday, October 3, as the ninth race on the card. The $650,000 event is for 2-year-olds and will be contested at 1 1/16 miles on the main track, with a scheduled post time of 5:16 p.m. Eastern.

The Breeders’ Futurity is also an early stop on the Road to the 2027 Kentucky Derby, awarding qualifying points toward next year’s Derby.

Breeders’ Futurity Field

1. Coach Pope (4/5)

Coach Pope is the clear morning-line favorite for trainer Kenny McPeek, with Jose Ortiz returning to ride.

The son of Tapit cost $350,000 and has won one of his two career starts. He finished second in his debut, rallying from off the pace in a race that has turned out to be productive. U. S. S. Valor, who finished just a neck behind him in that race, returned to graduate by 13 lengths.

Coach Pope came back as a heavy favorite in his second start and dominated, winning by 12 lengths at Churchill Downs.

His Today’s Racing Digest numbers are strong, with final-time ratings of 135 in his debut and 140 in his second start. His pace ratings improved as well, from 131 to 150.

The inside post should allow Coach Pope to save ground while using his tactical speed to stay close to the pace.

2. Q B Rocket (2-1)

Q B Rocket is a major contender in his second career start for trainer Brad Cox. The son of Gun Runner sold for $1.9 million and will have Junior Alvarado aboard.

He was the favorite in his six-furlong debut at Saratoga on August 15 and delivered a professional performance. Q B Rocket went straight to the lead, opened up in the stretch and won by 1 3/4 lengths while being eased up late.

The runner-up from that race has since won, adding to the strength of the form.

Q B Rocket earned a 132 final-time rating and a 134 pace rating in his debut. The expectation is that he can improve with experience, and his pedigree suggests that stretching out to 1 1/16 miles should be within his capabilities.

Keeneland can favor horses with speed, and Q B Rocket figures to be one of the fastest horses away from the gate.

3. Phone Booth (12-1)

Phone Booth ships in from California for trainer Doug O’Neill, with Umberto Rispoli scheduled to ride.

The son of Pavel has three career starts, with one win and two runner-up finishes. He won his debut at five furlongs before finishing second to Hughes in both the Grade 3 Best Pal and Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity.

Hughes will return at Santa Anita on Saturday as the favorite in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes.

Phone Booth’s speed figures have been inconsistent. He earned a 134 final-time rating in his debut, dropped to 111 in his second start and rebounded to 125 last time.

He has progressively stretched out from five furlongs to six and then seven furlongs. Now he’ll have to negotiate two turns at 1 1/16 miles.

While he has shown ability, the inconsistent numbers and questions about the added distance make him difficult to put on top.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Frizette Stakes 2026 Video Picks (10-3-26)

Video analysis of the Grade 1, $500,000 Frizette Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday, October 3, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Alcibiades Stakes 2026 Video Picks (10-2-26)

Video analysis of the Grade 1, $650,000 Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland on Friday, October 2, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Belmont Park Graded Stakes Analysis (10-1-26)

Belmont Park will feature a loaded Thursday card on October 1, highlighted by six graded stakes races worth a combined $1.9 million. The unusual Thursday program comes after Belmont canceled its September 26–27 weekend card because of severe weather, with four of the six stakes rescheduled for Thursday.

In this analysis, I takes a fresh look at all six stakes races, revisiting the races that were originally scheduled for the previous weekend and examining the new opportunities created by the rescheduling.

The stakes action includes the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom, Grade 3 Winter Memories, Grade 3 Belmont Turf Sprint, Grade 3 Vosburgh, Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, and Grade 2 Flower Bowl. The distances range from six furlongs to a mile and a half, with races contested on both the main track and turf.

The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic headlines the program, while the Flower Bowl and Vosburgh are both Breeders’ Cup Challenge races.

Race 3: Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Stakes

The third race is the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom Stakes, a 6½-furlong sprint on the main track for fillies and mares.

#1 Senza Parole (9-5)

Senza Parole enters this race in good form and has posted her best Today’s Racing Digest numbers in her last two starts, earning a 150 two races back and a 147 last time out.

Those figures are considerably faster than her previous efforts, suggesting that the lightly raced 4-year-old may be improving.

The biggest question is the absence of Lasix. Senza Parole appears to have done her best running with Lasix, although she has won without it in the past. If her recent improvement continues, she could overcome that concern.

#2 Beauty Reigns (3-1)

Beauty Reigns is a late-running mare trained by Bill Mott. She earned a 131 final-time rating when finishing third in the Grade 1 Ballerina last time out.

It was a respectable effort, although she was beaten by more than six lengths.

She also owns a 152 final-time rating from a victory a couple of starts ago with Lasix. Like Senza Parole, however, she will have to race without Lasix here.

#3 Munnings Express (6-1)

Munnings Express has been extremely consistent in dirt sprints.

In 11 starts, she has six wins, three seconds and two thirds, making her one of the most reliable horses in the field.

She won a seven-furlong New York-bred stakes race at Saratoga last time out while racing without Lasix, earning a 129 final-time rating.

She figures to be involved throughout and should be considered a contender.

#4 Queen Jubilee (15-1)

Queen Jubilee has won her last two races, earning final-time ratings of 110 and 128.

The concern is class. She is stepping up to face significantly better competition, and she’ll need another step forward to compete with the top horses in this field.

#5 R Disaster (8-5)

R Disaster is arguably the classiest horse in the field and is a Grade 1 winner.

She won the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff at Churchill Downs two starts ago with a 153 final-time rating and a 149 pace rating.

Her most recent race was much different. She recorded a 171 pace rating, indicating that she had to move very quickly early while chasing fast fractions. She eventually faded badly, earning just a 105 final-time rating and finishing 15 lengths behind in the Grade 1 Ballerina.

If she gets back to her best form, R Disaster could be difficult to beat. She could also be the horse to catch on the front end.

#6 Paradise City (12-1)

Paradise City earned only a 116 final-time rating in the Ballerina last time out.

She will need to improve substantially to contend with this group.

Race 4: Grade 3 Winter Memories Stakes

The fourth race is the Grade 3 Winter Memories Stakes, a one-mile turf race for 3-year-old fillies.

This is a wide-open event with several interesting contenders, including multiple runners from trainer Chad Brown.

#1 Alone Time (20-1)

Alone Time comes off a close third-place finish in an optional-claiming turf route at Saratoga on August 29.

She earned a 125 final-time rating in that race and could be competitive if she moves forward.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest