Mahony Stakes 2026 Analysis (8-16-26)

The Mahony Stakes at Saratoga is set for Sunday, August 16, with a scheduled post time of 6:06 p.m. ET. The Grade 3 event carries a $225,000 purse and is for three-year-olds dashing 5½ furlongs on the turf course.

The field features seven runners, including even-money morning-line favorite Outfielder, a stakes-winning speedster, and Intricate Spirit, who is looking to rebound from a troubled trip in his most recent start.

Here is a look at the field.

Mahony Stakes Field

1. Rebel With a Cause (8-1)

Javier Castellano takes over for trainer Lauren Robson aboard Rebel With a Cause, who has won three of five career starts and is two-for-three in turf sprints.

His most recent victory came in the My Frenchman Stakes at Monmouth on July 11. He chased the pace before winning by 1¼ lengths over Big Destroyer, who returns in this field.

Rebel With a Cause has been steadily improving according to the Today’s Racing Digest numbers. His final-time ratings have progressed from 120 to 131, 132 and 134 in his recent starts. His Fire numbers have also improved, reaching 88 in each of his last two races.

The inside post and tactical speed are positives, but he will need another step forward to defeat this group.

2. Outfielder (Even Money Favorite)

Outfielder is the horse to beat.

The Wesley Ward trainee has won four of seven starts, with John Velazquez aboard for all four victories. His best performance came in the William Walker Stakes at Churchill Downs on May 9, when he won at 5½ furlongs while pressing the pace.

That race produced an impressive 143 final-time rating and 183 pace rating from Today’s Racing Digest. Those numbers make Outfielder the fastest horse on paper in this field.

He subsequently traveled to Royal Ascot for a Group 1 event on June 19. Facing a large 22-horse field, he finished 10th, beaten just over five lengths.

If Outfielder returns to the form he showed in the William Walker, he could be very difficult to beat. Velazquez and Ward also give him a strong jockey-trainer combination.

3. Oscar’s Hope (8-1)

Oscar’s Hope is the biggest question mark in the field because he is switching from dirt to turf.

The good news is that his pedigree offers some encouragement. His sire, Twirling Candy, has been productive with turf runners, and Oscar’s Hope has already shown some ability in training on the surface. He worked four furlongs on the Saratoga turf on August 1 in 49 seconds, the second-fastest of 14 horses.

He has been consistent on dirt, finishing with four wins, three seconds and a third in 10 starts. His recent final-time ratings have included a 135, two 134s and a 138.

If he can transfer that form to turf, Oscar’s Hope could be competitive at a price.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

King's Plate 2026 Analysis at Woodbine (8-15-26)

The $1 million King’s Plate, the opening leg of the Canadian Triple Crown Series, is set for Saturday, August 15 at Woodbine. The 1 1/4-mile race on all-weather ground for Canadian-foaled 3-year-olds is scheduled as the 10th race with a post time of 6:12 p.m. Eastern.

The field features 12 runners, including a pair of fillies in Luster and Dixie Law.

Based on the Today’s Racing Digest past performances, Luster looks like the horse to beat, but there a few contenders who could give the impressive Woodbine Oaks winner a run for the money.

King’s Plate Field & Analysis

1. Luster (Even Money Favorite)

Luster is the clear horse to beat for Josie Carroll. She is 4-for-5 lifetime, 2-for-3 at Woodbine, and comes off a dominant victory in the Woodbine Oaks at 1 1/8 miles. She tracked the pace, drew off by more than five lengths and was geared down late.

Her Digest numbers are excellent, with recent Fire Numbers of 94, 94, and 98 and Final Time Ratings of 144 and 146. The Knicks Go filly has already proven she can win around two turns and should have the tactical speed to secure a favorable trip from the rail under her winning pilot John Velazquez.

2. Fire and Wine (30-1)

Fire and Wine has won twice at Woodbine, but his recent form is a major concern. His last three Fire Numbers are only 80, 48 and 76, well below what appears necessary to win this race.

His best races have come when he was able to get to the lead. He hasn’t been able to establish that position in his recent starts, and even if he does make the lead here, he’ll have to improve significantly to stay there for 1 1/4 miles.

3. Baaeed Alynna (30-1)

Baaeed Alynna was sixth, beaten seven lengths, in the Plate Trial. That was his first attempt around two turns, so there is some possibility of improvement with experience.

He did earn an improved 88 Fire Number last time, but his recent Final Time Ratings of 114, 113, and 125 leave him with plenty to prove from a class and speed standpoint.

4. Imyourmedicineman (20-1)

Imyourmedicineman has just one win from seven starts, although he has also recorded two seconds and a third. His lone victory came at Woodbine at 1 1/16 miles in November 2025.

He rallied to finish second in the Plate Trial at 28-1, which was encouraging, and his recent Fire Numbers of 98 and 90 are competitive. However, he hasn’t won in five starts since his maiden optional-claiming victory.

Red more at Today's Racing Digest 

Philip H. Iselin Stakes 2026 Analysis (8-15-26)

The Grade 3 Philip H. Iselin Stakes at Monmouth Park on Saturday, August 15, brings together a competitive field of six older horses going 1 1/16 miles on the main track. The $150,000 event is scheduled as the fifth race, with a 2:57 p.m. Eastern post time.

The 1 1/16-mile distance at Monmouth has generally favored horses racing near the pace. Early-pressing types have accounted for the overwhelming majority of winners in the available sample, while late runners have had a difficult time getting the job done. The inside posts, particularly positions one through three, have also performed well at this distance.

That could make early positioning especially important in this year’s Iselin.

1. East Avenue

East Avenue is one of the top contenders in this race after an impressive victory in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile at Monmouth on June 13. Breaking from the outside post in that one-mile event, he raced wide throughout but still managed to get up by a nose over Bishops Bay.

The victory was particularly encouraging because East Avenue demonstrated a new dimension to his running style. He had previously been much more dependent on being near the front, but this year he has shown an ability to relax and pass horses. He also stalked the pace effectively in the Grade 3 Oaklawn Mile earlier this year, finishing just three-quarters of a length behind the winner.

His Today’s Racing Digest numbers also point to continued improvement. He earned a 153 final-time rating and a 104 Fire Number in his latest start, both strong figures for this field. His best number prior to that was a 141 in the Oaklawn Mile in March, suggesting that he could be moving forward as a four-year-old.

The switch from an outside post to the rail should help, particularly at a distance where the inside posts have performed well. Tyler Gaffalione, who rode him to victory last time, stays aboard.

East Avenue has the combination of current form, speed, tactical versatility and a favorable post to make him one of the horses to beat.

2. Chunk of Gold

Chunk of Gold is an intriguing runner making his second start of the year.

The four-year-old has finished in the top three in 10 of 11 career starts, with three wins and six runner-up finishes. He returned from a lengthy layoff on June 28 at Churchill Downs, setting the pace before finishing second at 1 1/16 miles.

That race produced a slow early pace and a faster finish, which may have contributed to his modest 131 final-time rating. He should be fitter for his second start of the year, and his previous form suggests he is capable of a significantly faster effort.

He earned a 150 final-time rating in last year’s Grade 2 Clark and previously posted a 153 in a romping allowance victory at Keeneland. His past pace ratings have also been strong, including figures of 162, 155, 171 and 156.

The question is how much improvement he can make from his four-year-old debut. With his tactical speed and the inside-friendly post, he has a legitimate chance to take another step forward.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Smart And Fancy Stakes Analysis (8-14-26)

The Smart and Fancy Stakes at Saratoga Race Course on Friday, August 14, is a $200,000 turf sprint for fillies and mares going 5½ furlongs. The scheduled post time is 5:44 p.m. ET.

The race features a highly competitive group, and here is a look at the field and the top contenders.

Smart and Fancy Stakes Field

1. Me Governor (12-1)

Me Governor enters this race after finishing fourth, beaten a length, in a 5½-furlong turf race at Churchill Downs on June 28. She was claimed for $100,000 out of that race by trainer Joe Sharp, who has a solid record with horses making their first start after a claim.

She has raced nine times at 5½ furlongs, winning twice while adding a second and two thirds. Her ability to use different running styles could be an asset in a race with several horses likely to show speed. At her morning-line price, she is an interesting candidate to hit the board.

2. Delightful Flame (10-1)

Delightful Flame figures to be one of the main pace factors. She won her most recent start going wire to wire from the inside post in a six-furlong turf optional-claiming race.

Her lone turf start at Saratoga came in the Galway Stakes last summer and she chased the pace and faded to last of nine. If she can establish a comfortable lead, she could make things difficult for the closers, but that scenario seems unlikely.

3. Praying (8-1)

Praying makes a surface switch for trainer Robert Medina, moving from dirt to turf. Medina has a modest record with first-time turf starters, but the pedigree provides some encouragement. Her sire, Vekoma, has produced a respectable percentage of first-time turf runners, and her dam has produced a turf winner.

The bigger concern is current form. She has struggled in her last several starts, including Grade 1 and Grade 2 competition. She did post a solid turf workout at Saratoga on August 7, going four furlongs in 48.40 seconds, second-fastest of 24 horses. A return to her best form would make her interesting, but she has plenty to prove.

4. Le Amazonia (8-1)

Le Amazonia has been consistent, recording 11 top-two finishes in 14 starts. She has also shown an affinity for abbreviated turf sprints.

She has finished second in each of her last two starts at five furlongs on turf, and she has demonstrated the ability to rally from farther back when circumstances require it. Junior Alvarado reunites with her after guiding her to victory at Gulfstream Park earlier this year. Her versatility makes her a realistic contender to hit the board.

5. Capturing (5-1)

Capturing has finished in the top three in eight of her nine starts, including three victories, and two of those wins came at 5½ furlongs on turf.

She has also already won at Saratoga at this distance. At Keeneland in April, she tracked the pace in a 12-horse field before drawing away to win by 2¼ lengths at 5½ furlongs. She returned to Saratoga on July 10 and rallied to win a seven-horse optional-claiming race by a nose.

The distance appears to be ideal, she handles the Saratoga turf, and she should get the pace scenario she needs. Trainer Todd Pletcher’s Saratoga stable has also been showing improved form after a slow start to the meet.

The biggest question is whether Irad Ortiz Jr. will be able to ride. Ortiz has been dealing with a foot issue and his status is day-to-day.

6. Miss Vyvyanne (5-2)

Miss Vyvyanne is the most accomplished winner in the field, with 12 victories from 25 starts. She is also 6-for-7 in abbreviated turf sprints and 7-for-10 overall on turf.

She enters off a Grade 2 victory at Woodbine, where she went wire to wire at five furlongs. She has been in excellent form for much of the past year and possesses the early speed to make the lead.

The question is whether she can carry that speed an extra half-furlong. If she gets loose or establishes reasonable fractions, however, she could be extremely difficult to catch.

7. Itzel (8-1)

Itzel is another likely pace player. She set the pace before finishing second in a stakes race at Ellis Park last time out, going 5½ furlongs on yielding turf.

Her overall 2026 form is strong: five starts with two wins and three runner-up finishes. Tyler Gaffalione takes over in the saddle, and she figures to be part of the early pace battle.

8. Ratu Jawa (50-1)

Ratu Jawa faces a difficult assignment. She has just one victory from eight starts and is winless in three attempts at this distance and four starts on turf.

She did finish fourth, beaten a little more than three lengths, in her last start at 19-1 odds, but this is a substantially tougher spot. She will need to improve significantly to factor.

9. Zeitlos (2-1)

Zeitlos is the morning-line favorite, but she is still searching for her first turf victory. She has five turf starts with three runner-up finishes, including two seconds at Saratoga at this distance.

She rallied from last in a nine-horse field to finish second in last year’s Grade 3 Caress Stakes. This year, she again finished second in the Caress, which was upgraded to Grade 2 status.

Zeitlos should get plenty of pace to chase, and Jose Ortiz returns in the saddle. The concern is that she has repeatedly come close without winning on turf. She also benefited from a strong pace setup and an inside trip in her most recent race.

Check out my Smart And Fancy Stakes video at The Runaway Horse

Birdstone Stakes 2026 Analysis (8-13-26)

The Birdstone Stakes at Saratoga is set for Thursday, August 13, with a scheduled post time of 5:14 p.m. ET. The $200,000 event for three-year-olds and up will be contested at 1 3/4 miles on the main track.

The marathon distance should make stamina and proven dirt form especially important. Parchment Party is 2-for-2 at the distance and is the obvious horse to beat.

Before getting into the Birdstone field, it’s worth noting that last Sunday produced two video top-choice winners. Igniter won the Ellis Park Derby at even-money for trainer Rick Dutrow, while Zihnal, ridden by John Velazquez, won the West Virginia Derby at 3-1. Hopefully, that momentum continues into this week’s stakes races.

No. 1 Parchment Party (8-5)

Parchment Party is the morning-line favorite for trainer Bill Mott, with John Velazquez returning to the saddle.

The biggest positive is his proven record at this demanding distance. He is 2-for-2 at 1 3/4 miles and 2-for-3 at Saratoga. Both of his wins at the distance came in stakes races, including last year’s Birdstone Stakes.

Parchment Party defeated Interceptor in the Isaac Murphy Marathon earlier this year and also edged Jokestar in the Temperence Hill Stakes at 1 1/2 miles. His ability to save ground from the inside post should also help, particularly in a race where several horses could be looking for position going into the first turn.

His seventh-place finish in the Grade 2 Suburban can be forgiven. That race was essentially a prep for this event, and the 1 1/4-mile distance was shorter than ideal for him.

He is clearly the horse to beat, but at a short price, I’m willing to look for a little more value.

No. 2 Annexperience (10-1)

Annexperience has a respectable overall record, with three wins, four seconds and a third-place finish from 10 starts.

He is also 1-for-1 at Saratoga and has shown a particular affinity for wet dirt, winning both of his starts over wet tracks by a combined 17 1/2 lengths.

The problem is the class and distance hike.

He has been competing against New York-bred allowance and optional-claiming company and will now jump into a $200,000 stakes race while stretching all the way to 1 3/4 miles. He has also been effective when setting the pace, so he could be the horse to catch.

There are simply too many questions to make him one of my top four.

No. 3 Stars and Stripes (5-2)

Stars and Stripes is the second choice on the morning line for Bill Mott and will reunite with Luis Saez, who rode him to back-to-back victories at Oaklawn and Keeneland earlier this year.

He won the Grade 3 Ben Ali at 1 3/16 miles in April, but his most recent effort in the Grade 2 Suburban was a major disappointment. He finished eighth, beaten 17 lengths, after racing wide from post nine in an 11-horse field.

The biggest question here is whether he wants 1 3/4 miles. Mott had considered running him in a shorter stakes race at Monmouth (G3 Iselin at 1 1/16 miles on Aug. 15), but ultimately entered him here.

Stars and Stripes has talent, but the added distance makes him difficult to endorse at 5-2.

No. 4 Passing Game (15-1)

Passing Game is one of the more interesting longshots in the field.

Tyler Gaffalione gets the mount on a horse with three wins, four seconds and a third from 12 starts. He is also 1-for-1 at Saratoga.

The distance probably won’t trip him up. He has already competed in long-distance stakes races, including a two-mile turf stakes in October 2025 (2nd) and a Grade 3 event at Woodbine at 1 1/2 miles (3rd).

He also has solid dirt numbers, with two wins and two runner-up finishes from six starts on the surface.

His most recent race was a ninth-place finish on turf at 1 3/8 miles, but he drew post 10 and never really became involved. Now he returns to dirt for his third start of the year.

At 15-1, Passing Game could be an interesting underneath horse in trifectas and especially superfectas. I could see him tracking Annexperience from second and getting first run if the pace develops favorably.

No. 5 Waitlist (20-1)

Waitlist has three wins, six seconds and a third from 27 starts, but he is winless in four starts at Saratoga.

He did win an entry-level allowance race at 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct in April, but his last three starts have produced finishes of fifth, eighth and fifth, all against optional-claiming company.

Those races came at 1 1/8 miles on dirt and 1 3/8 miles on turf, so stretching out to 1 3/4 miles is a major question.

At 20-1, he will likely be overlooked for good reason.

No. 6 Interceptor (9-2)

Interceptor is a legitimate top three contender.

Trainer Mike Maker has a consistent horse here, as Interceptor has finished in the top three in each of his last seven starts. His overall record is three wins, four seconds and two thirds from 13 starts.

He has also already proven that he can handle demanding distances. Parchment Party defeated him by just 1 1/4 lengths in the Isaac Murphy Marathon at 1 1/2 miles, while Interceptor also finished second in the Excelsior Stakes at 1 1/4 miles.

Last time out, he tracked the pace, took the lead and finished third, beaten just 1 1/2 lengths. He missed second by a nose and finished six lengths ahead of the fourth-place finisher.

That tactical speed could be especially useful in this race.

The only real concern is the rider situation. Irad Ortiz Jr. is listed to ride, but he was dealing with a foot injury and missed mounts last weekend.

No. 7 Jokestar (4-1)

The key to Jokestar’s success is the surface.

He has been far more effective on conventional dirt than on all-weather or turf. On fast dirt, he has four wins, a second and a third from seven starts. On all-weather tracks, however, he is just 1-for-12, while he is 0-for-2 on turf.

His most recent start came in the Grade 2 Eclipse Stakes on all-weather at Woodbine. He finished fifth, beaten about 12 lengths, but I’m willing to draw a line through that performance.

The return to conventional dirt could make a major difference.

Jokestar was a stakes winner earlier this year in the Post Time Stakes at Laurel Park, winning by more than six lengths after tracking the pace. He also finished a close second to Parchment Party in the Temperence Hill Stakes.

That Temperence Hill performance is particularly encouraging. Jokestar was right there with Parchment Party, and now he gets another opportunity to turn the tables.

He also gets Jose Ortiz in the saddle and has been training well. Jokestar posted a bullet five-furlong workout at Woodbine on July 31, covering the distance in 59 4/5 seconds, fastest of five horses.

His versatility is another positive. He can sit off the pace, make a move from the middle of the pack or rally from farther back.

If the track is fast, I believe Jokestar has a chance to produce a rebound performance and upset the favorite.

No. 8 Carolo Rapido (20-1)

Carolo Rapido is the other big longshot in the field.

He has six wins from 22 starts and has put together several solid recent efforts. He won a $50,000 claiming race at Keeneland in April, was claimed that day, and then finished second in a $62,500 claiming race at Churchill Downs.

Trainer Norm Casse claimed him on May 14, and Carolo Rapido subsequently finished third in a starter allowance event.

The problem is the class hike and the outside post. He is moving into a stakes race, stretching out in distance and facing significantly tougher competition.

He looks up against it.

Check out my Birdstone Stakes video at The Runaway Horse 

The Triple Crown Series Is Broken----And Racing Made Things Worse

The Triple Crown has always been one of the most compelling storylines in American horse racing. Every spring, fans follow the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes, hoping to see a horse attempt something that has become extraordinarily difficult: winning all three races.

But the Triple Crown has been changing, and not necessarily for the better.

The latest developments surrounding the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes have created even more questions about where the series is headed. Instead of fixing the problems that have fractured the Triple Crown, Churchill Downs and the New York Racing Association (NYRA) have now announced an entirely new six-race series for three-year-olds.

In my opinion, that’s the wrong solution.

The Biggest Problem: Trainers Don’t Want to Run Back in Two Weeks

The fundamental problem with the modern Triple Crown is pretty simple: many trainers no longer want to run their horses back just two weeks after the Kentucky Derby.

That wasn’t nearly as much of an issue in the past, but it has become increasingly important in today’s racing environment.

We’ve already seen recent Kentucky Derby winners skip the Preakness and then win the Belmont Stakes. That’s a major indication that the traditional spacing of the Triple Crown races isn’t working the way it once did.

And it’s not just the Derby winner. Fewer Kentucky Derby horses that finish behind the winner are coming back for the Preakness.

The result is a Triple Crown series that has been increasingly fragmented.

Read more at The Runaway Horse