Keeneland Maker's Mark Mile 2026 Analysis (4-10-26)

I’m breaking down the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland, a $650,000 turf event for older horses going one mile. This is a deep and competitive field with proven Grade 1 talent, rising contenders, and several runners with legitimate pace and trip questions that will ultimately decide the outcome.

Field Overview & Early Impressions

This race features a strong mix of tactical speed and late runners, which should ensure an honest pace. Horses like Deterministic, Wolfie’s Dynaghost, and potentially Bear River (if he runs) can push things early, while closers like Notable Speech and Tiz Dashing will look to capitalize late.

The key handicapping question: Will the pace set up for a closer, or will a tactical stalker get first run and hold?

Using Today’s Racing Digest Metrics

When analyzing a race like this, I rely heavily on Complete Digest data—especially Final Time Ratings and pace profiles—to separate contenders from pretenders.

Key Speed Figures (Recent Peaks)

Horse	Best Recent Final Time Rating
Zulu Kingdom	159
Deterministic	159
Tiz Dashing	158
Notable Speech	155
One Stripe	155
Rhetorical	150

On raw numbers alone, several runners can win—but trip, form cycle, and pace dynamics will be decisive.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Kentucky Derby 2026 Video Update (4-6-26)

In this Kentucky Derby 2026 video, I share my Exceptional 11 Derby contenders (4-6-26). 

I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my channel. Road to Derby video record (36 13-4-6).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Kentucky Derby 2026 Report (4-6-26)

The Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby, and Wood Memorial were the latest road to Kentucky Derby 2026 prep races and Further Ado, So Happy, and Albus punched their tickets to Louisville. In this report, I will recap the aforementioned three Derby preps, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.

I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 36 points races, my top choices have 13 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 6 show finishes. The road to the Derby series concludes with the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland on April 11.

Lexington field (race 10): 1 – Corona de Oro, 2 – Exhibition Only, 3 – Decisive Win, 4 – Enforced Agenda, 5 – Mister T, 6 – Ramblin, 7 – The Hell We Did, 8 – Trendsetter, 9 – Ezum, 10 – Confessional, 11 – I Did I Did

Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps

Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland (9f): Further Ado ($3.70) made short work of this crew as the strong favorite. He stalked while out in the clear, took over, and romped by 11 lengths (106 BSF). Ottinho rallied for the place and Talkin stalked the pace and was best of the rest in third. Creole Chrome (4th), Great White (5th), Reagan’s Honor (6th), and Moonstrocity (7th) also ran. Class President and Ocelli scratched. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode the winner for Brad Cox. Fractions: 23.60, 47.71, 1:11.80, 1:36.63, 1:49.58.

Read more at The Runaway Horse

Road to Kentucky Oaks 2026 Video Update (4-5-26)

In this Kentucky Oaks 2026 video, I share my updated Fabulous 5 Oaks contenders (4-5-26).

I covered all of the Kentucky Oaks preps on my Runaway Horse YouTube channel, and my top choices had 14 wins, 7 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes (31 races). My top choices showed a flat bet profit in this series.

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.   

Kentucky Oaks 2026 Update (4-5-26)

The final three Kentucky Oaks prep races are in the books and Percy’s Bar, Meaning, and Always a Runner punched their tickets to Louisville. In this report, I will recap the Ashland, SA Oaks, and Gazelle, update the points standings, and share my top five Oaks fillies.

I covered all of the Kentucky Oaks preps on my Runaway Horse YouTube channel, and my top choices had 14 wins, 7 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes (31 races). My top choices showed a flat bet profit in this series.

Kentucky Oaks 2026 Points Race Recaps

Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland (8.5f): The track was listed as good. Zany was the strong favorite and Percy’s Bar was making her first start since finishing third in the G1 BC Juvenile Fillies last fall. It came down to those two and Percy’s Bar ($7.12) never left the rail. She saved all the ground tracking French Friction, and she scooted up the rail in the stretch and won by 2 1/4 lengths (87 BSF). Zany raced in traffic early, stalked outside, changed leads late, and was clearly second best. Star Actress rallied from last of 6 from the outside post to finish a clear third. French Friction weakened to fourth and Omaha Bay and Hollybygolly also ran. Luan Machado rode the winner for Ben Colebrook. Fractions: 24.70, 50.37, 1:15.24, 1:39.47, 1:45.72.  

Read more at The Runaway Horse

Santa Anita Derby 2026 Picks (4-4-26)

The Road to the Kentucky Derby rolls through Santa Anita Park with the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, a $500,000 event for three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. This is one of the most important West Coast prep races, and I’ve been tracking all the Derby points races closely—producing 13 winners, along with multiple exacta and trifecta finishes along the way.

Using data from the Complete Digest, I’m breaking down this field from a pace, speed, and class perspective before giving you my contenders.

Meet the Field

• #1 Cherokee Nation (Bob Baffert) – Dominant maiden winner last out
• #2 Potente (Bob Baffert) – San Felipe Stakes winner, undefeated
• #3 Vitruvian Man – Longshot facing a big class test
• #4 Robusta – Strong runner-up effort in the San Felipe
• #5 So Happy – Grade 2 winner trying to rebound
• #6 Start the Ride – Appears overmatched
• #7 Intrepido – Grade 1 winner as a juvenile, improving

Speed & Pace Breakdown

Key Today’s Racing Digest Metrics

Horse	Fire #	CPR	Fast Fig	Final Time Rating
Cherokee Nation	100	134	125	147
Potente	96	137	128	143
Robusta	100	133	128	143
So Happy	94	123	125	135

Fire Number highlights early and sustained speed, and Cherokee Nation and Robusta both top the field there. Meanwhile, Potente leads in CPR, signaling the most complete performance profile.

The Final Time Rating shows Cherokee Nation clearly on top with a 147—making him the fastest horse in the field based on recent performance.

Class & Form Analysis

Cherokee Nation is the wildcard. He struggled in prior stakes attempts but exploded last time out with a 10-length maiden win, earning elite pace and speed figures. That effort suggests major upside.

Potente is undefeated and already a graded stakes winner, while Robusta proved competitive at this level in the San Felipe.

Intrepido brings strong back class, including a Grade 1 win at two, and could improve second off the layoff after skipping the San Felipe to target this race.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Blue Grass Stakes 2026 Analysis (4-4-26)

I’m back with my latest Road to the Kentucky Derby breakdown, and this time I’m diving into the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. This $1.25 million Derby prep is one of the final and most important stepping stones on the trail, with three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on the main track.

Let’s break down the field, evaluate the numbers, and identify where the betting value lies.

Field Overview & Early Impressions

This is a competitive group with a mix of improving runners, established stakes performers, and a few question marks. Several entrants are stretching their limits in terms of class or distance, while others appear poised to peak at the right time.

From a pace standpoint, there’s a strong possibility of a forwardly placed runner controlling things early—something I always pay close attention to at Keeneland.

Speed Figures & Key Metrics

Using the Digest past performances, I focused heavily on Final Time Ratings and pace progression to evaluate each contender.

Top Figure Trends

• Reagan’s Honor: 99 → 122 → 149 (strong upward pattern)
• Class President: SCRATCHED
• Further Ado: 153 (maiden peak), then regression and partial rebound
• Great White: 135 last out (synthetic surface question)

Horses showing both pace and final time improvement are typically the most dangerous in Derby preps, and that’s exactly what we see from the top contenders here.

Contender Breakdown

4 – Reagan’s Honor (5-2)

This is the horse I keep coming back to. His numbers are improving across the board, and he’s shown he can wire fields going two turns. His pace figures (114 → 140 → 170) suggest he can control the tempo.

If Keeneland is playing even slightly speed-favoring, he becomes extremely dangerous.

Bettor’s Edge: A lone-speed scenario at Keeneland is often a winning formula—especially in route races.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest