2027 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 analysis.
This pool opened on October 28 and closes on Friday, October 30 at 4PM ET.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Thursday, October 29, 2026
Breeders' Cup Juvenile 2026 Handicapping Article (10-30-26)
I’m looking at more than wins and losses in this $2 million Grade 1 championship. The key is figuring out which horses have demonstrated the necessary ability, which ones benefited from favorable race flow, and which juveniles are still improving as they stretch out around two turns.
This is also a Kentucky Derby 2027 points race. These young horses are still developing, so I want to identify the runner who can deliver the best performance now while keeping an eye on those who could improve with more experience and distance.
Horse-by-Horse Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Analysis
1. Damavand (20-1)
Damavand enters at a 20-1 morning line for trainer Todd Pletcher, with Luis Saez named to ride. He was beaten by more than nine lengths in his debut before returning at Keeneland for a one-mile-and-a-sixteenth race.
In that second start, he tracked from third in an 11-horse field and won by a neck. His numbers improved substantially, with a Final Time Rating of 96 in his debut followed by a 125 in his second race. His Fire Number rose from 64 to 80, while his CPR climbed from 84 to 128.
Those are encouraging improvements, but I have a concern about the circumstances of that latest victory. It was a slow-early, fast-late race, and he benefited from being able to track the pace before making his move.
He will face much stronger competition here. From the rail, I expect him to save ground and track the pace, but he must demonstrate that he can produce another step forward against this field.
I respect the numerical improvement, but I need more evidence that he can compete at this level.
2. Gaudreau (8-1)
Gaudreau is trained by Chad Brown and Manny Franco is named to ride for the first time after Flavien Prat switches to Hughes.
He won his debut while pressing from second. Two runners from that race, Coach Pope and USS Valor, subsequently won their next starts by wide margins. He then faced USS Valor in a one-turn mile and was no match for that rival.
In the Grade 1 Champagne, he dueled on the lead and finished second, best of the rest behind the winner. That was a respectable effort, but he needs to run much faster to win this race.
The jockey change also catches my attention. Prat moves to Hughes, and that makes sense given Hughes’ recent performance pattern.
He has some useful form and a Grade 1 runner-up finish, but I need a faster performance before backing him.
3. Salahudin (6-1)
Salahudin is a major contender for Bob Baffert. Tyler Gaffalione is named to ride him for the first time. The $325,000 son of Uncle Mo is undefeated in three starts, and he has improved with every race.
His progression is particularly attractive:
| Figure | Debut | Second Start | Third Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final Time Rating | 107 | 117 | 129 |
| Fire Number | 76 | 83 | 90 |
| CPR | 94 | 104 | 120 |
He moved from six and a half furlongs to seven furlongs and then to a one-turn mile. Each time, his figures improved. In the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes, he broke slowly and raced wide but still won by a half-length.
He also had a bullet workout at Churchill Downs on October 25. The biggest question is whether he can get away from the gate cleanly and avoid leaving himself too much ground to make up.
Salahudin looks like a colt who should appreciate longer distances. His long stride and steady improvement suggest two turns could suit him, although the added distance does not eliminate the risk of another slow start.
He has the improving pattern to be dangerous now, and I expect additional ground to remain a positive as his career develops.
4. Earth Song (20-1)
Earth Song won his debut by 11 lengths as the odds-on favorite, but that race featured only three horses. He then faced better competition in the Grade 1 Champagne, finishing fourth and beaten by more than nine lengths at 24-1.
His figures moved in the wrong direction:
| Figure | Debut | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Final Time Rating | 140 | 122 |
| Fire Number | 92 | 82 |
| CPR | 135 | 111 |
That decline concerns me. The impressive debut came against just two rivals, and he failed to reproduce that performance when he stepped up in class. Now he faces another strong field while stretching out to two turns.
I am leaving Earth Song at the bottom of my rankings. He needs to reverse a negative figure pattern while proving he can compete against better horses.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Breeders' Cup Juvenile 2026 Video Picks (10-30-26)
2026 Breeders' Cup Juvenile video picks.
The BC Juvenile will be held at Keeneland on Friday, October 30, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies 2026 Video Analysis
2026 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies video picks.
The BC Juvenile Fillies will be held at Keeneland on Friday, October 30, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Sunday, October 25, 2026
Breeders' Cup Classic 2026 Video Report
2026 Breeders' Cup Classic video report.
The BC Classic will be held at Keeneland on Saturday, October 31, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile 2026 Video Preview
Video preview of the 2026 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.
The BC Dirt Mile will be held at Keeneland on Saturday, October 31, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Street Sense Stakes 2026 Analysis (10-25-26)
The three previous Street Sense Stakes winners at this distance were Incredibolt in 2025, Sovereignty in 2024, and Liberal Arts in 2023. Each came from well off the pace to go last-to-first.
This is a road to Kentucky Derby 2027 points race.
Horse-by-Horse Street Sense Stakes Analysis
1. Ritzy Rags (50-1)
Ritzy Rags dropped from maiden special weight company into a $30,000 maiden claiming race at Churchill Downs last time and won by a head after chasing the pace. He was claimed out of that race, and Rafael Bejarano, his winning rider, stays aboard.
His pedigree offers some encouragement for the added distance. He is by Union Rags, with A.P. Indy as his damsire, so there is a reasonable pedigree argument for handling a route. He also recorded a bullet five-furlong workout on October 9 in 1:01, best of six.
However, this is a major class increase. He beat only four rivals in his narrow maiden claiming victory, and the Street Sense Stakes will demand considerably more.
2. Blessed Flyer (7-2)
Blessed Flyer is two-for-two, winning his debut at four and a half furlongs by a head before taking the Bashford Manor Stakes at six furlongs by another head.
He was scheduled to run in the Iroquois Stakes but ran off before the start and was scratched. He has not raced since June, and his workout schedule has included gaps. He worked five furlongs in 1:00 on October 18, the fastest of 15 recorded works at that distance.
He adds blinkers and his Bashford Manor pilot Brian Hernandez Jr. stays aboard. His Final Time Ratings improved from 104 in his debut to 126 in his second start. That is a positive progression, but both races were sprints, and now he must handle a mile and a sixteenth.
I’m concerned about the combination of the missed start, the interrupted workout schedule, and the distance increase. The talent is there, but he has more questions to answer than his 7-2 morning line suggests.
3. Card Man (5-2)
Card Man is the second choice on the morning line for trainer Chad Brown, with Flavien Prat aboard. He finished second in his six-furlong debut after chasing from third, beaten a length and three-quarters by Q B Rocket. Three horses from that race won their next starts, and Q B Rocket subsequently finished third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
Card Man returned for a one-turn mile at Belmont Park and delivered a five-length victory. He chased from third, moved forward, took the lead, and pulled away. His Final Time Rating improved from 126 in his debut to 129 in his second start.
I like that progression. He improved without making an enormous numerical leap, and that leaves room for another forward move. He now stretches out around two turns for the first time, but the way he finished his mile victory is encouraging.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
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