Ashland Stakes 2026 Video Picks (4-3-26)

Ashland Stakes video analysis at Keeneland  (4-3-26). This is a Kentucky Oaks 2026 points race. Road to Kentucky Oaks 2026 video record (28 13-5-5).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Kentucky Derby 2026 Video Report (3-29-26)

 In this Kentucky Derby 2026 video, I share my Exceptional 11 Derby contenders (3-29-26). 

I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my channel. Road to Derby video record (33 13-4-6).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Road to Kentucky Derby 2026 Report (3-29-26)

The Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, and UAE Derby were the latest road to Kentucky Derby 2026 prep races and Renegade, Commandment, and Wonder Dean punched their tickets to Louisville. In this report, I will recap the Arkansas Derby, Florida Derby, and UAE Derby, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.

I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 33 points races, my top choices have 13 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 6 show finishes. The road to the Derby continues with Blue Grass (G1), SA Derby (G1), and Wood Memorial (G2) on April 4.

Wood Memorial field (race 12): 1 – Napoleon Solo, 2 – Talk to Me Jimmy, 3 – Right to Party, 4 – Steel, 5 – Ocelli, 6 – Minorinconvenience, 7 – Albus, 8 – Courting, 9 – Bravaro, 10 – Red Zone Runner, 11 – Ottinho, 12 – Buetane, 13 – Iron Honor.

My longtime top ranked Derby contender Paladin was injured after a workout in Florida on March 28 and is off the Triple Crown trail. He suffered a non-displaced condylar fracture of his right front ankle and will need surgery. Two screws will be inserted and he will miss all of the big targets this summer and fall.

More bad news for Chad Brown. Tampa Bay Derby (G3) show finisher Canaletto is injured and out of action until fall.

Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps

Grade 2 UAE Derby at Meydan (3-28-26): This one was cut and dry. Six Speed controlled the pace and had a clear lead. Wonder Dean emerged from the pack and came after the leader, and he had more stamina in the stretch and won by 2 1/2 lengths. Six Speed was clearly second best and my top choice Pyromancer never had a chance. He raced wide throughout and was best of the rest in third. The winner and runner-up might travel to Louisville to run in the Kentucky Derby.

Read more at The Runaway Horse

Kentucky Oaks 2026 Video Update (3-28-26)

In this Kentucky Oaks 2026 video, I share my updated Fabulous 5 Oaks contenders (3-15-26).

I cover all of the Kentucky Oaks prep races, and through the first 28 points races, my top choices have 13 wins, 5 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.   

Road to Kentucky Oaks 2026 Report (3-28-26)

Two more Kentucky Oaks 2026 prep races are in the books and Counting Stars and Prom Queen were both impressive winners. In this report, I will recap the Fantasy Stakes and Gulfstream Park Oaks, update the points standings, and share my top five Oaks fillies.

I cover all of the Kentucky Oaks points race on my Runaway Horse YouTube channel, and through 28 points races, my top choices have 13 wins, 5 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes. The next Kentucky Oaks points race is the Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland on Friday, April 3. The Gazelle Stakes and Santa Anita Oaks are the final two Oaks points races on Saturday, April 4.

Kentucky Oaks 2026 Points Race Recaps

Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn (3-27-26): Even money favorite Explora spiked a temperature and scratched, and that left a field of five. 41-1 longshot Empath set the pace as expected and her stablemate Counting Stars ($3.80) chased from second, took over, and cruised home by 5 1/2 lengths (92 BSF). Search Party rallied for the place and she was 9 1/2 lengths in front of clear show finisher Taken by the Wind. Sticker Shock was a disappointing fourth and Empath retreated to last. Francisco Arrieta rode the winner and Mark Casse saddled the winner and place finisher. Fractions: 24.07, 48.69, 1:13.68, 1:38.22, 1:44.47. 

Read more at The Runaway Horse

Florida Derby 2026 Analysis (3-28-26)

The Road to the Kentucky Derby rolls through South Florida with the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. This $1 million test at 1 1/8 miles is one of the most important final preps, offering critical points toward qualifying for Churchill Downs. With a mix of proven stakes winners and improving contenders, this year’s field presents a fascinating handicapping challenge.

Using the Digest past performances, I’m breaking down the field and identifying key speed figure patterns.

Field Overview & Early Pace Thoughts

The scratch of Redland Rebels (#5) removes a key speed influence, which could significantly impact the race shape. That potentially leaves horses like Nearly, Wayne’s Law, and possibly Albus to contest or control the early tempo.

This race may favor tactical runners—those capable of sitting just off the pace and making the first decisive move turning for home.

Contender Breakdown 

1 – Albus (20-1)

Improved sharply last out with a 123 rating at Tampa Bay, but he loses Lasix and steps way up in class. He’ll need another big leap forward.

My Betting Takeaway: Inside draw helps, but class test is steep.

2 – Chief Wallabee (2-1)

Lightly raced with major upside. His 140 Final Time Rating and strong tactical pace numbers make him dangerous. The concern is whether two tough races in quick succession take a toll.

Bettor’s Edge: His 143 pace rating suggests he’ll get first run on deep closers—always a major advantage at Gulfstream.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Arkansas Derby 2026 Analysis (3-28-26)

I’m breaking down the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, a $1.5 million Kentucky Derby points race at 1 1/8 miles. This race consistently produces serious Derby contenders, and this year’s field brings a mix of proven stakes runners and lightly raced upside types.

From a pace perspective, Redland Rebels figures to be aggressive from the rail, with Litmus Test likely sitting just off the pace from the outside. The rest of the field features stalkers and closers who should benefit if the tempo gets honest early.

7 – Napoleon Solo will not run in this spot. He has been rerouted to the Wood Memorial.

Past Performances Breakdown (Using Today’s Racing Digest)

If you’re playing this race seriously, I highly recommend reviewing the Complete Digest, which provides key metrics like Final Time Ratings and Fire Numbers that I rely on heavily.

1 – Redland Rebels (15-1)

• Improving early in career, especially on turf
• Peak 143 Final Time Rating came on grass
• Faded in Tampa Bay Derby after setting the pace

Takeaway: Likely pace presence, but questionable at this level on dirt.

2 – Silent Tactic (5-2)

• Ultra-consistent closer
• 150 Final Time Rating (Southwest Stakes win)
• Narrow loss in Rebel Stakes after pressing pace

Takeaway: Dangerous late runner with proven numbers.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest