Dowager Stakes 2026 Analysis (10-18-26)

The Grade 3 Dowager Stakes is the marquee event at Keeneland on Sunday, October 18. The race is scheduled as the seventh race of the day, with a $350,000 purse for fillies and mares going a mile and a half on the turf course. Post time is scheduled for 4:12 p.m. Eastern.

After reviewing the 12-horse field, the projected pace, and the recent speed-figure patterns, I’m looking for a horse who can handle the demanding mile-and-a-half distance and deliver a strong finishing effort.

Dowager Stakes Field Analysis

#1 Massarat (20-1)

Massarat enters the Dowager with three career wins in 13 starts, along with two third-place finishes. She is winless in one previous attempt at Keeneland at this course and distance.

Her last two starts came in graded stakes company, finishing fourth in the Grade 2 Glens Falls Stakes and fifth in the Grade 3 Waya Stakes. She was beaten four and a half lengths in the Glens Falls and four lengths in the Waya.

Massarat figures to save ground behind the early speed, but she will need to improve her recent performances to contend for the win.

#2 Malibu Smart (15-1)

Malibu Smart has three career victories in 29 starts, with her last two wins coming in mile-and-a-half turf races against optional claiming company at Saratoga and Kentucky Downs.

She was forwardly placed in both victories and should have another opportunity to secure a good position from post two. Her tactical speed could be an advantage if the pace develops slowly.

The biggest question is whether she can transfer that recent form to graded stakes competition. She was fourth (beaten 9.5 lengths) at 1 1/2 miles on turf at Keeneland in April, and she faces a class test here.

#3 Sky Low Low (50-1)

Sky Low Low is still a maiden after 12 starts, with four second-place finishes and one third.

Her recent races came in $50,000 maiden claiming events for New York-breds on the turf at Saratoga. She has been competitive in those races, finishing second, third, and second in her last three starts.

However, she will face a much stronger field in the Dowager and needs a significant improvement in speed to compete with these stakes runners.

#4 Pretty Tapit (9-2)

Pretty Tapit enters the race following an impressive victory at Kentucky Downs, winning an entry-level allowance race at a mile and a half by more than seven lengths as the favorite.

That performance makes her an interesting contender, particularly because she has already demonstrated an ability to handle the distance.

The concern is whether she can reproduce that effort at Keeneland against tougher competition. She is winless in two previous starts at Keeneland, with no top-three finishes.

Her recent victory is encouraging, but I want to see whether that Kentucky Downs performance translates to this spot.

#5 Fionn (3-1)

Fionn is the morning-line favorite for trainer Brad Cox, with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard.

She has seven career victories in 13 starts, along with one second and one third. Much of her success came last year, when she won six of eight starts and earned nearly $2 million.

Her 2026 campaign has been disappointing so far, with no wins or top-three finishes in three starts before the Dowager. However, her latest performance in the Grade 2 Flower Bowl Stakes was a step in the right direction.

Fionn finished fifth, beaten less than three lengths, in a race won by Kathynmarissa. She was making a late run after sitting well back early and showed signs that her better form might be returning.

Last year, she won several graded stakes, including the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and the Grade 3 Regret, Dueling Grounds Oaks, and Jockey Club Oaks.

The distance should not be a concern. She has already demonstrated the ability to handle longer turf races, and the Flower Bowl suggests she may be ready for another improved effort.

Fionn remains a major contender if she can recapture anything close to her 2025 form.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Raven Run Stakes 2026 Analysis (10-17-26)

The Grade 2 Raven Run Stakes will be run at Keeneland on Saturday, October 17. The $400,000 event is scheduled as Race 9, with a 5:16 p.m. ET post time. The race is contested over seven furlongs on the main track and is restricted to three-year-old fillies.

This year’s field features several talented sprinters, including the accomplished Keeneland performer Percy’s Bar, the improving Conceit, morning-line favorite Mashallah, and the versatile Movie Night.

Here is a closer look at the field for the Raven Run Stakes.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Army’s Marauder (30-1)

Army’s Marauder enters off a maiden special weight victory at Churchill Downs on September 12, where she pressed the pace from post 10 in a 12-horse field going six and a half furlongs. The runner-up returned to win next time out, providing some encouragement about the form.

She earned a respectable 132 final-time rating in that victory. However, this is a substantial class jump, and she will face several proven stakes competitors. She has some early speed but will need to improve considerably to compete with the leading contenders.

2. Mythical (12-1)

Mythical has the tactical speed to secure a forward position and enters with a record of seven wins, one second, and one show finish from 13 starts. She has one win from three attempts at seven furlongs.

She was beaten five lengths in the Grade 3 Prioress Stakes last time out. Mashallah won that race, with Hen Party finishing third.

Mythical earned a 132 final-time rating in her latest effort, an improvement over several of her recent performances. She has demonstrated an ability to compete at a high level, but some of her best performances have come at Gulfstream Park.

3. Hen Party (20-1)

Hen Party has seven career starts, recording two wins, two seconds, and a pair of third-place finishes. She finished third in the Prioress Stakes last time, adding blinkers while switching from turf to dirt.

Her 129 final-time rating was consistent with a previous 129 earned in a Grade 3 turf sprint. That suggests she handled the surface change reasonably well.

She has also shown ability on all-weather surfaces. However, she has no previous experience at Keeneland or at seven furlongs.

4. Coco Connect (50-1)

Coco Connect has three wins from eight starts, including a maiden victory over seven furlongs at Keeneland. She has also won twice on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park, including a stakes race.

Her recent form is less encouraging. She finished ninth by 20 lengths, fourth by eight lengths, and 11th by nine lengths in her last three starts.

Her best recent speed figures came on synthetic surfaces, and even those numbers appear insufficient for this assignment.

5. Yo Fancy (30-1)

Yo Fancy has finished in the money in all three career starts, showing a strong closing kick. She finished second in her debut, won her second start after rallying from 10th, and then finished third by half a length as the favorite in her most recent race.

Her final-time ratings have improved from 98 to 104 to 114, a positive progression that suggests she is developing nicely.

The concern is her lack of early speed. She could find herself too far behind if the leaders establish a manageable pace. She is also attempting a longer distance than in her previous races.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Perryville Stakes 2026 Analysis (10-17-26)

The Grade 3 Perryville Stakes is one of two graded races at Keeneland on Saturday, October 17, featuring a $350,000 purse for three-year-olds competing over seven furlongs on the main track. The scheduled post time is 4:12 p.m. Eastern.

This year’s field features a number of interesting contenders, including a promising favorite in Deep Flame, a proven dirt performer in Obliteration, and Chief Wallabee, a horse with experience against some of the best three-year-olds in the country.

After reviewing the field and the Today’s Racing Digest past performances, I’m looking for a horse who can take advantage of a potentially contested pace.

Let’s meet the field and examine the key speed figures for the Perryville Stakes.

Perryville Stakes Field Analysis

1. Solitude Dude (6-1)

Solitude Dude makes his first start for trainer Joe Sharp, with Jose Ortiz taking the mount. He has four wins, a second, and a third from eight career starts and has won twice at seven furlongs.

His most recent outing was a disappointing fourth-place finish, beaten more than eight lengths as the favorite in a stakes race at Charles Town. Not every horse handles that bullring oval, so I’m willing to give him a mulligan.

He should show speed from the inside post, but his recent form has been inconsistent. His best numbers fit with this field, although the combination of his rail draw and other early-speed contenders makes him difficult to trust on top.

2. Trouble Calling (20-1)

Greg Foley trains Trouble Calling, who will have Luis Saez aboard. He has four wins and eight top-three finishes from 10 starts.

He has run well in both of his Keeneland appearances and is one-for-one at seven furlongs. He exits a wire-to-wire victory in a turf sprint over yielding ground.

The challenge here is returning to the main track and racing without Lasix. His last three final-time ratings were 135, 134, and 131, suggesting he needs to improve to win this race. He should be forwardly placed, but the faster pace could make his task more difficult.

3. Chief Wallabee (8-1)

Trained by Bill Mott, Chief Wallabee has one win, three seconds, and a third from seven starts. He is one-for-one at seven furlongs, having won his career debut at that distance at Gulfstream Park while tracking the pace and defeating The Puma.

He subsequently stepped up to longer distances and competed on the Triple Crown trail, finishing second in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and third in the Florida Derby. He then finished fourth in the Kentucky Derby after adding blinkers.

The distances became a concern in the Belmont Stakes, where he weakened to fourth after hitting the front early in the stretch. He later finished second behind the runaway winner Sea Strike in the Curlin Stakes, then returned to a one-turn mile against older horses and finished second again.

Now he gets another opportunity at the seven-furlong distance where he began his career successfully.

His earlier Digest ratings of 140 and 149 demonstrate that he has the ability to compete with this group.

I particularly like his position from post three. With several horses likely to show early speed, Chief Wallabee could settle just behind the leaders and save ground. If a gap opens in the stretch, he could have the opportunity to deliver a decisive late run.

At a morning-line price of 8-1, he offers an appealing alternative to the favorite.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Santa Anita Park Pick 6 Carryover Analysis (10-16-26)

The Pick Six at Santa Anita Park offers an enticing opportunity on Friday, October 16, with a carryover of more than $54,000. The $2 base wager begins in Race 4 and concludes with Race 9.

In this analysis, I’ll examine data from the Complete Digest, including track profile stats, speed and pace projections, final-time ratings, and trainer statistics to identify the horses with the best chances of winning each leg.

Let’s take a closer look at each race and identify the leading contenders for Friday’s Pick Six.

Race 4: California-Bred Optional Claiming — One Mile on Dirt

The opening leg is an optional claiming event for California-bred fillies and mares going one mile on the main track.

Santa Anita’s track profile at this distance shows an advantage for horses with early-pressing speed. Front-runners have won 33% of the 12 races in the sample, while pressers have accounted for nearly 42% of the winners. Midpack runners have not won in the sample, and rear runners have won 25%.

The speed and pace projections identify Dorie Miller as the leading contender in the Fire Number category with an 84 and the best projected Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR) at 120.

Dottie Hinson leads the Fast Fig category with a 116, while Kool Mariah has the best projected final-time rating at 117, narrowly ahead of Dorie Miller’s 116.

Dottie Hinson has the best last-race final-time rating at 122, but Dorie Miller owns the best overall, surface, and distance ratings at 134.

Top Contenders

#1 Dottie Hinson is a logical win threat. Her speed ratings have improved in each of her last three sprint starts, climbing from 105 to 111 and then 122.

Breaking from the rail with Juan Hernandez aboard, she should have an opportunity to establish a forward position. Trainer Andy Mathis has performed well with horses stretching out from sprints to routes, winning 10 of 51 starters.

#3 Kool Mariah is one of the top players because she has already demonstrated that she can handle a mile. In her first route attempt at one mile on turf, she went wire-to-wire to graduate with a 110 final-time rating and a 135 pace rating.

Her other mile attempt produced a 117 final-time rating in a clear, distant runner-up finish behind Christel Clean after chasing the pace.

Kool Mariah returned to sprinting in her most recent start, finishing an even fourth in a six-furlong race. Now making her third start following a layoff, she stretches back out to a distance at which she has already shown ability.

Tyler Baze returns aboard for trainer Ian Kruljac. The jockey-trainer combination has recorded two wins, two seconds, and two thirds from 10 starts together.

#5 Dorie Miller deserves consideration, particularly after the projected figures she has posted. However, her overall record raises concerns: she has just two career victories from 38 starts. She frequently finishing in the money (19 underneath finishes).

Race 5: Starter Allowance — One Mile and One-Eighth on Turf

The second leg is a starter allowance event for three-year-olds and up traveling a mile and an eighth on the turf.

Top Contenders

#4 Caisson is a strong contender for the Pick Six.

The horse comes off a starter allowance victory at Del Mar over one mile on turf. His final-time ratings have shown a steady upward progression, moving from 104 to 110, 116, 125, and 135.

That pattern suggests continued improvement. The main concern is his record over Santa Anita turf routes, where he has won just once in 12 attempts.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Breeders' Cup Classic 2026 Video Preview

Video preview of the 2026 Breeders' Cup Classic. 

The BC Classic will be held at Keeneland on Saturday, October 31, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Santa Anita Turf Pick 3 Video Picks (10-12-26)

Video analysis of the Turf Pick 3 at Santa Anita Park on Monday, October 12, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Santa Anita Park Turf Pick 3 Analysis (10-12-26)

The Monday, October 12 card at Santa Anita features a $3 Turf Pick 3 covering Races 5, 7, and 9. The sequence begins with a $25,000 claiming event for fillies and mares, continues with the $80,000 Swingtime Stakes, and concludes with an optional claiming turf sprint.

In this preview, I’ll use the Complete Digest data to evaluate the top contenders for each race.

Race 5: $25,000 Claiming — Six and One-Half Furlongs on Turf

The first leg of the Turf Pick 3 is a $25,000 claiming race for fillies and mares, restricted to non-winners of two lifetime.

Top Contenders

2. Jenny’s Wine Girl (5-2)

Jenny’s Wine Girl has the strongest projected Digest numbers.

Looking at her last six starts, she recorded ratings of 104, 116, 114, 120, 116, and 122.

That sequence illustrates both her potential and her vulnerability. She is coming off her best effort in the series of races, but her ratings have fluctuated considerably. If she reproduces her latest 122, she could be tough to beat. A regression, however, would leave the door open for her rivals.

Jenny’s Wine Girl is adding blinkers and appears capable of securing a forward position. She fits well on the projected figures and class ratings, making her a leading contender.

6. Watch Over Us (9-5)

Watch Over Us is particularly interesting because she has made only two career starts.

She won her six-furlong maiden claiming debut at Los Alamitos by more than three lengths, earning a 108 final-time rating. She then moved to the turf at Del Mar for a five-furlong sprint and finished third, beaten five lengths, while finishing a length behind Jenny’s Wine Girl. She earned a 113 rating in that race.

That second effort suggests she may be capable of improving with experience.

Trainer Peter Miller is effective with turf sprinters, and jockey Joel Rosario has a strong record riding for the barn. Watch Over Us needs to make up only a small amount of ground on Jenny’s Wine Girl, and further improvement could make her a serious threat.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest