Del Mar Pick 6 Carryover Analysis (11-8-26)

I’m breaking down the Sunday, November 8 Pick 6 sequence at Del Mar. The carryover amount is $45,175, with the sequence beginning in Race 4 and continuing through Race 9.

I’ll identify my top choice in each Pick 6 race, and you can watch my video below for more extensive analysis.

Race 4: Maiden Claiming $16,000 – Five and One-Half Furlongs on Dirt

Top Choice: #3 Cherry Candy

Cherry Candy added blinkers last time and showed improved pace figures, jumping to a 131 pace rating while earning an 86 Final Time Rating.

She finished fifth in a maiden claiming $20,000 race, but now drops to the $16,000 level. Kyle Frey returns, and I like the possibility of this filly getting out there and controlling the pace.

If she can establish the lead without using too much energy early, she could take this field all the way.

Race 5: $25,000 Claiming – Non-Winners of Two Lifetime, One Mile on Turf

Top Choice: #6 Jenny’s Wine Girl

Jenny’s Wine Girl was claimed out of her last start by Tim Yakteen and now makes several interesting changes.

Yakteen is 5-for-10 first after the claim, and he has a 30% win rate with horses removing blinkers.

Jenny’s Wine Girl added blinkers last time, pressed the pace in a six-and-one-half-furlong turf race, and finished fourth. Now she removes the blinkers and stretches back out to a turf route.

She has run five times at this distance, recording two seconds and three third-place finishes. She also finished third in her lone Del Mar turf-route appearance.

Juan Hernandez takes the mount. I like the possibility of Jenny’s Wine Girl getting to the front and controlling the pace. If she can settle into a comfortable rhythm, she could be difficult to catch.

Race 6: Allowance Optional Claiming – Six Furlongs on Dirt

Top Choice: #5 Himari

Himari has the best projected Fire Number, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Rating.

She earned a 134 Final Time Rating last time out at Santa Anita, along with a 141 pace rating. She removed blinkers and finished a close second in that six-and-one-half-furlong affair. She also won her debut at Del Mar at the same six-and-one-half-furlong distance.

Bob Baffert trains, and Juan Hernandez rides. I like the combination of her early speed, strong recent figures, and proven Del Mar sprint form.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Churchill Downs: River City Stakes Analysis (11-7-26)

The Grade 3 River City Stakes headlines Saturday’s turf action at Churchill Downs on November 7. The $300,000 event, scheduled as Race 8, brings together an eight-horse field of older turf runners going a mile and an eighth. Post time is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. Eastern.

Lambeth, a sharp closer coming off a victory in the Grade 2 Sycamore Stakes, is the 9-5 morning-line favorite. However, the shorter distance and potentially modest pace could make his task more difficult. Ole Crazy Bone, a Grade 2 winner with proven class and tactical speed, could take advantage of the projected race shape. Kupuna also deserves serious consideration after putting together a consistent series of stakes performances.

Here is a closer look at the field and the Today’s Racing Digest numbers.

River City Stakes: Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Carcano (20-1)

Carcano will break from the rail for trainer Vicki Oliver. He is winless in two previous starts at Churchill Downs, without a top-three finish, and will make his first appearance at a mile and an eighth.

He won an optional claiming event at Colonial Downs at a mile and three-sixteenths two starts ago. Last time, he rallied strongly in the Colonial Cup Stakes at a mile and a half on turf, missing by just a head.

Carcano should attempt to save ground from the inside post and make one late run. His 149 final-time rating from his most recent race makes him interesting from a numbers standpoint, but I am concerned that he could be too far behind when the field turns for home.

2. Mercante (8-1)

Mercante returns with blinkers and reconnects with Walter Rodriguez, who guided him to a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 Kentucky Cup Classic at Turfway Park in March.

His most recent victory came at Churchill Downs in May 2025, when he won the Grade 3 Arlington Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth on turf. He has also finished third in the River City Stakes and second in the Grade 2 Wise Dan.

Mercante has been competitive in several stakes races, although he has gone through a lengthy winless stretch. He has finished in the top three in three of four starts at this distance.

The inside post and tactical speed could help him secure a favorable trip in a race without an abundance of early speed. I prefer him underneath rather than on top, but he is an appealing candidate for the exacta and trifecta.

3. Vote No (8-1)

Vote No is a late runner for trainer Kelsey Danner, with Umberto Rispoli listed to ride.

He finished second in the Tapit Stakes at Kentucky Downs, beaten by a half-length after rallying from far back. Last time, he finished third in the Grade 2 Sycamore Stakes at a mile and a half, closing from approximately 16 lengths behind.

Vote No has the numbers to compete with this group. His final-time ratings in his last three starts were 140, 155, and 144. His projected Comprehensive Performance Rating of 140 is the best in the field.

However, he faces a significant distance cutback, and his closing running style could work against him if the early fractions are moderate. He has enough ability to make an impact, but I would prefer to see a stronger pace scenario.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest 

Belmont Park: Carle Place + Mother Goose Analysis (11-7-26)

Belmont Park features four stakes events on Saturday, November 7. I covered the Pumpkin Pie and Dwyer earlier this week. Now, I’ll take a look at the $175,000 Carle Place Stakes (Race 7, post time: 2:41 PM ET) and the Grade 2 Mother Goose Stakes (Race 9, post time: 3:43 PM ET).

The Carle Place is for 3-year-olds dashing six furlongs on the inner turf course, and the Mother Goose is for 3-year-old fillies traveling 1 1/16 miles on the main track.

Let’s find the contenders, identify potential betting value, and see where the best opportunities may be.

Carle Place Stakes: Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Big Destroyer (6-1)

Big Destroyer enters this event following a third-place finish in the Bricks and Mortar Stakes at seven panels on turf. He previously finished second in an allowance event, so his recent form has been competitive.

Several horses from the Bricks and Mortar return to action, giving us another opportunity to evaluate the strength of that performance. Big Destroyer earned a 140 Final Time Rating in that event.

He figures to come from off the pace and should benefit from saving ground under Antonio Fresu. The jockey-trainer combination with Miguel Clement is winless in seven starts, with one second and two third-place finishes.

2. Capanaparo (12-1)

Capanaparo is trained by Rick Dutrow and exits a close third-place finish at Belmont on October 29. He previously finished fifth in an allowance race, so he’s stepping up into stakes company.

Paco Lopez is listed to ride. The jockey is two-for-three with a third-place finish when teaming up with Dutrow.

Capanaparo needs to demonstrate that he can compete against this stronger group.

3. Oscar’s Hope (9-2)

Oscar’s Hope has plenty of experience, but that also limits his upside compared with some of the developing horses in this field.

He hasn’t won any of his last six starts, although he has finished in the money four times. His most recent effort was a third-place finish in a five-and-one-half-furlong allowance turf sprint at Keeneland on October 8.

Before that, he finished fourth in a Grade 2 event at Kentucky Downs going six-and-one-half furlongs on turf.

His most recent Final Time Rating was 137. He had Lasix in that Keeneland race but will not have it for this assignment.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Dwyer Stakes 2026 Analysis (11-7-26)

The $200,000 Dwyer Stakes goes as Race 8 at Belmont Park on Saturday, November 7. The one-mile dirt event is restricted to three-year-olds, with a scheduled post time of 3:12 p.m. ET.

Saturday’s Dwyer features an interesting combination of stakes winners, improving sophomores and the return of last year’s two-year-old champion Ted Noffey. I went through each horse’s recent performances, speed figures, pace ratings and class to determine which runners have the best opportunity to win.

1. Bravaro (15-1)

Bravaro has three wins and two runner-up finishes from eight career starts. He exits a stakes victory at Charles Town, where he rallied from fifth in a seven-horse field to win by a half-length at seven furlongs.

His latest performance produced a 147 Final Time Rating, 97 FIRE Number and 146 CPR. Those are impressive numbers, but I have reservations about whether he can duplicate that performance at Belmont Park.

His previous five Final Time Ratings were 129, 129, 108, 110 and 123. That makes the latest figure a significant jump forward. I’m not convinced the improvement is sustainable, particularly when considering the different track configuration. The bullring oval at Charles Town has nothing in common with Belmont Park.

He should attempt to save ground while tracking the pace. I respect his recent victory, but I need to see him reproduce those numbers at Belmont Park.

2. Overtime Rules (15-1)

Overtime Rules has won two of three starts and enters this race following back-to-back front-running victories at Colonial Downs and Keeneland.

His Final Time Ratings have improved from 92 to 117 to 149. That’s an encouraging progression, and his pace ratings of 147, 153 and 156 show that he has considerable early speed.

The Samuel Marin-Arnaud Delacour combination has performed well, recording a win, five seconds and a third in eight starts together.

However, this is a significant class test. He will encounter several horses with early speed, and the competition should be considerably tougher than what he faced in his most recent allowance victory. He also loses Lasix.

I like his improving pattern, but I question whether he can maintain his speed when facing this kind of pressure.

3. Stimulate (6-1)

Stimulate is a son of Tapit with two wins and a third-place finish from four starts. Both victories came with Lasix, and he was prominent on the pace in each of those performances.

His Final Time Ratings were 99, 137, 128 and 138. He has demonstrated the ability to compete at seven furlongs and one mile, and his latest performance came in the Bourbon Flight Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth.

Last time, he chased the pace from second before taking the lead and eventually finishing third, beaten a little more than seven lengths.

The cutback to a one-turn mile should be helpful. He has enough tactical speed to secure a favorable position, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he runs a competitive race.

My biggest concern is the absence of Lasix. Both of his victories came with the medication, and he will not have it in this event.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest. 

Pumpkin Pie Stakes 2026 Analysis (11-7-26)

The Pumpkin Pie Stakes analysis centers on a six-horse field at Belmont Park on Saturday, November 7. I see a good opportunity for Senza Parole to earn a stakes victory, but I also have my eye on Amalfi Drive as a potential pace player who could offer some value underneath.

The $175,000 Pumpkin Pie Stakes is Race 6, a seven-furlong dirt event for fillies and mares. Scheduled post time is 2:10 p.m. Eastern. This is one of four stakes races on the Belmont Park card, and I’ll be covering the other three in separate previews.

Pumpkin Pie Stakes Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1. Indy Bay

Indy Bay could show speed from the inside post for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., with Micah Husbands back aboard. She has five wins, four seconds and two thirds from 15 career starts. Her record this year includes one win and three runner-up finishes from seven starts.

I’m willing to forgive her most recent effort, when she finished fifth and was beaten 11 lengths in the Princess Rooney. She had been the even-money favorite in the Sheer Drama Stakes two starts earlier, finishing a clear second behind her stablemate Kerry’s Kiss, who subsequently won the Princess Rooney.

Her three previous strong efforts included a 141 Final Time Rating while winning a seven-furlong race by seven lengths, followed by a 149 and a 143 in runner-up finishes in stakes company at Gulfstream. The latest figure was only 110, but the earlier numbers make her a contender if she can rebound.

Indy Bay has early-pressing speed, the rail post and a race shape that does not include a confirmed front-runner. I can see her being forwardly placed and making her presence felt throughout.

2. Amalfi Drive

Amalfi Drive has the best overall pace ratings in this field, and I expect her new rider Antonio Fresu to be aggressive. There isn’t an obvious confirmed front-runner, so this could be an opportunity for her to get position on or very near the lead.

Her recent Final Time Ratings include a 131, a 126 and a 137 when she finished second in a stakes race. Her last two stakes figures were 120 and 129, so she needs to get back to that 137 effort to be a realistic win threat.

The pace numbers are what make her interesting. She has posted multiple 146 and 173 pace ratings, which could give her the ability to establish the early lead. If she breaks sharply, I expect Fresu to send her.

Her most recent race came at Timonium in a six-and-a-half-furlong stakes event. She rallied from off the pace to finish fourth, beaten only three-quarters of a length. That bullring configuration is unusual compared with this assignment at Belmont, and she showed some late interest last time.

I also like her earlier Churchill Downs effort, when she battled on the pace in a one-turn mile and won by more than two lengths. If she can reproduce that form while using her pace advantage, she could be dangerous.

3. Beauty Reigns

Beauty Reigns is a legitimate trifecta contender for trainer Bill Mott, with Junior Alvarado named to ride. She has five starts at seven furlongs, with two wins and two thirds, and she has generally been competitive at the distance.

Her best recent effort came when she earned a 152 Final Time Rating and defeated Senza Parole at Saratoga in July. She had Lasix that day, however, and will not have it for this race.

Since then, she has posted a 131 and a 129 against strong Grade 1 and Grade 2 company. In the Grade 2 Gallant Bloom, she finished third behind R Disaster and Senza Parole. Our Disaster controlled the pace, Senza Parole chased and finished a clear second, and Beauty Reigns was best of the rest.

The company she has been facing is a positive, and she could bounce back in this non-graded stakes event. Still, I have some concern about the race flow. She may not get the ideal setup, and I prefer others with better tactical speed.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Breeders' Cup Saturday 2026 Video Recap

2026 Breeders' Cup Saturday video recap.

The 2-day BC was held at Keeneland on Friday, October 30 and Saturday, October 31, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Breeders' Cup Friday 2026 Video Recap

2026 Breeders' Cup Friday video recap.

The 2-day BC was held at Keeneland on Friday, October 30 and Saturday, October 31, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.