Video analysis of the $200,000 Johnstone Stakes at Saratoga (8-5-26).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Sunday, August 2, 2026
Saratoga Sunday Stakes Analysis + Video (8-2-26)
Sunday’s Saratoga card features three exciting stakes races, including two events that were rescheduled earlier in the week. The Curlin Stakes and Grade 2 Glens Falls were originally slated for Wednesday and Thursday before being moved to Sunday’s program, joining the Grade 3 Adirondack Stakes for 2-year-old fillies.
Below is my stakes analysis and top selections.
The past performance data referenced in this analysis and video is provided by Today’s Racing Digest using the Complete Digest.
Race 8: Grade 2 Glens Falls Stakes
$250,000 • Fillies & Mares • 1½ Miles (Turf)
The Glens Falls attracted a large field, and while the projected figures from the Digest point strongly toward Dona Clota, I’m willing to look elsewhere.
Dona Clota owns the top projected speed ratings across several categories after an impressive victory at Delaware Park. However, that performance came against softer competition, and she’ll have to overcome a difficult outside post while facing a tougher field at Saratoga.
Top Contenders
#8 Speed Shopper (5-1)
I’m willing to draw a line through Speed Shopper’s most recent start in the Grade 1 New York Stakes. Instead, I want to focus on her marathon turf races.
She owns an excellent Grade 3 victory at Keeneland at this 1½-mile distance and has consistently run well in longer turf stakes. Her tactical speed should allow her to secure good position early, and Irad Ortiz Jr. gives her another positive edge.
The biggest question is whether she’ll handle softer turf if rain affects course conditions, but if she does, I believe she’s the horse to beat.
#6 Survie (7-2)
Survie makes her first North American start after competing well overseas.
Although she wasn’t a prolific winner in Europe, she consistently held her own against quality competition and appears to fit nicely with this group. Flavien Prat takes the mount, making this an intriguing newcomer capable of making an immediate impact.
#9 Gezora (5-2)
Gezora clearly has the class to win this race.
She captured last year’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf before changing barns twice, but her first two starts this season haven’t matched that championship form.
Returning to a longer distance may help her rebound, but at a short price I’m willing to use her underneath rather than on top.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Friday, July 31, 2026
Clement L. Hirsch Stakes Analysis (8-1-26)
With multiple early-pressing types entered, the fractions should be honest, creating opportunities for stalkers and late runners. Here’s a horse-by-horse look at the field.
Pace Outlook
Four horses possess enough early speed to make this an honest race from a race flow standpoint.
Simply Joking, Seismic Beauty, A Thousand Miles, and Euromia all figure to be involved during the opening stages. Whether they engage in a prolonged battle—or one horse clears without pressure—will likely determine the final outcome.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
#1 Chasten (4-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Chasten enters this race in outstanding form after dominating a listed stakes at Delaware Park by open lengths. She has improved significantly this season, posting some of the best speed figures of her career while winning two stakes races.
Although both victories came in listed company rather than graded stakes, she previously held her own against much tougher competition when racing wide early and splitting a 10-horse field in a Grade 1 at Churchill Downs. She didn’t threaten the winner that afternoon, but she wasn’t disgraced against a deep cast.
The rail draw should allow Florent Geroux to secure a ground-saving trip behind the early leaders. If a fast pace develops, Chasten might get first run turning for home.
#2 Hey Jesse (12-1)
Trainer: Sean McCarthy
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Hey Jesse is somewhat of a wildcard.
Most of her success has come on turf, where she’s won three races, but she did win her lone dirt start. She exits a fifth-place finish in the Possibly Perfect Stakes on grass and now returns to the main track.
Her closing style could benefit if the early leaders soften each other up, but she’ll likely need significant pace help to threaten this field.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Jim Dandy Stakes 2026 Analysis (8-1-26)
While the field is small, it features several accomplished stakes runners with legitimate Travers aspirations. Here’s a closer look at the contenders and how the race could unfold.
Pace Scenario
One of the biggest handicapping angles in this race is the projected pace.
There isn’t an abundance of early speed, which could give Chip Honcho a tactical advantage from the rail. After showing improved maturity in recent starts, he no longer needs the lead but has enough natural speed to establish position early. If left alone on the front end, he could prove difficult to reel in.
Commandment figures to sit just outside the leader, while Renegade is expected to settle toward the back before launching his customary late rally.
With only five horses entered, positioning will likely be every bit as important as raw talent.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
#1 Chip Honcho (3-1)
Chip Honcho enters off a victory in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, where he tracked the pace before finishing strongly to win by a length. His recent races suggest he’s becoming more versatile, relaxing early instead of insisting on the lead.
The inside draw should allow him to secure excellent early position, and in a race lacking abundant speed, he could control the tempo. The question is whether his Ohio Derby form translates against a stronger group of rivals.
#2 Asked and Answered (30-1)
Asked and Answered remains a maiden after six starts and appears badly overmatched.
His speed figures fall well short of what will likely be required to compete at this level, making him the longest shot in the field.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Thursday, July 30, 2026
Amsterdam Stakes 2026 Picks (7-31-26)
Video analysis of the Grade 2, $250,000 Amsterdam Stakes at Saratoga (7-31-26).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Glens Falls Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (7-30-26)
Video analysis of the Grade 2, $250,000 Glens Falls Stakes at Saratoga (7-30-26).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Monday, July 27, 2026
Curlin Stakes 2026 Analysis (7-29-26)
Race Overview
- Race: Curlin Stakes (Race 6)
- Track: Saratoga
- Distance: 1 1/8 miles
- Surface: Dirt
- Purse: $150,000
- Post Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
Projected Pace
Gulfy appears to be the main speed horse.
Blackout Time and Zihnal should settle into stalking positions, while Chief Wallabee is expected to enjoy a tactical trip just outside the leaders. With only six horses entered, early position and trip could prove especially important.
The projected pace scenario seems to favor horses with early-pressing speed rather than deep closers.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
#1 Blackout Time (3-1)
Blackout Time enters off a dominant six-length victory in an allowance race at Churchill Downs. That performance represented a significant rebound after disappointing efforts earlier this season in the Rebel Stakes and Arkansas Derby.
The big question is whether that effort was aided by several favorable factors, including a wet track, the addition of Lasix, and class relief. Earlier in his career, he proved he belonged with quality company by finishing second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, so the talent is there. If he repeats his most recent speed figure, he’ll be a serious contender.
#2 Gulfy (12-1)
Gulfy projects as the likely pace setter. His forward running style might allow him to carve out the early fractions in a race that lacks abundant early speed.
The concern is whether he can finish strongly enough. While his pace figures are competitive, his recent final time ratings fall short of what will likely be required to defeat the top contenders. He could prove dangerous if left alone on the lead but appears more likely to be running for a minor award.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
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