Del Mar Closing Day Stakes Analysis (9-7-26)

Del Mar’s summer meet comes to a close on Monday, September 7, with a pair of stakes races on the 11-race program. The card features the I’m Smokin’ Stakes for California-bred 2-year-olds and the Grade 2 John C. Mabee Stakes for fillies and mares.

Using the past-performance data from Today’s Racing Digest’s Complete Digest, here’s a look at both stakes races, including projected Fire Numbers, CPR Ratings, Fast Figs, and Final Time Ratings.

Race 6 – I’m Smokin’ Stakes

The I’m Smokin’ Stakes is for 2-year-olds bred in California and will be contested at six furlongs on Del Mar’s main track.

The distance has generally favored speed horses. In 21 races at six furlongs, front-runners have won 57% of the time, while pressers have accounted for nearly 29% of the victories. Midpack runners have won about 9.5% and horses coming from farther back less than 5%.

That makes this a particularly important race for horses with tactical or early speed.

The Field

• #1 Little King (6-1) – Maiden after two starts
• #2 Prime Splash (20-1) – Expected to show speed
• #3 Cupid Cowboy (8-1) – Maiden winner at 52-1 odds
• #4 Fumano’s Fire (15-1) – Expected to show speed
• #5 Empire of Ash (6-1) – Maiden second-time starter
• #6 Net Par (8-5) – Graduation Stakes winner
• #7 Early Encore (8-5) – Third in the Graduation Stakes

Speed and Pace Forecasts

The Today’s Racing Digest speed-and-pace forecast gives Little King some of the strongest individual numbers in the field.

Little King earned an 85 Fire Number in his debut, indicating strong speed throughout that race. He also recorded a 129 CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating) in that first start, along with a 129 Final Time Rating.

However, his numbers dropped considerably in his second race. His Final Time Rating fell to 93, meaning the key question is whether he can return to the level he demonstrated in his debut.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Saratoga Stakes Analysis for Monday (9-7-26)

Saratoga Race Course wraps up its summer meet on Monday, September 7, with two $200,000 stakes races on the card. The 10th race is the Funny Cide Stakes for New York-bred 2-year-olds going six furlongs on the main track, followed by the Gio Ponti Stakes for 3-year-olds going one mile on the turf.

Here’s a look at the key contenders in each race and their Today’s Racing Digest numbers.

Race 10 — $200,000 Funny Cide Stakes

The Funny Cide Stakes brings together a group of promising New York-bred 2-year-olds.

#1 Professor Plum (6-1)

Professor Plum earned a 99 final-time rating when rallying to win his debut at 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga on July 12. The runner-up from that race returned to win next time out, which gives the effort some added credibility.

Professor Plum figures to save ground behind the speed and could make a late run for a share. However, he’ll need to improve on that 99 rating to beat some of the faster horses in this field.

#2 Fullcup (2-1)

Fullcup looked impressive winning his debut at Saratoga on July 31. He earned a 114 final-time rating and a 129 pace rating, winning by more than four lengths.The biggest question this time is his inside post. In his debut, Fullcup was able to track outside before running down the competition. From post two, he’ll have to deal with a potentially different trip and may have to race closer to the rail.

If Junior Alvarado can work him into the clear, Fullcup has enough ability to be a major factor.

#3 Minefield (5-2)

Minefield is still a maiden, but he ran well enough in his debut to make him a serious contender here.

He finished second in that first start while earning a 119 final-time rating and a 134 pace rating. Those numbers put him right in the mix with the more experienced winners in this field.

Minefield has enough tactical speed to work out a good trip, and if he improves in his second start, he could turn the tables on one of the horses who has already beaten him (Scramjet).

#4 D I Wire (8-1)

D I Wire won his July 12 maiden special weight at Saratoga by more than a length. He earned a 95 final-time rating along with a 137 pace rating.

The pace figure is encouraging, but the final-time rating suggests he’ll need significant improvement to compete with the top contenders here.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Saratoga Stakes Analysis for Sunday (9-6-26)

Saratoga Race Course is heading into the final days of its summer meet, and Sunday, September 6, features three stakes races worth watching. In this analysis, I’ll take a closer look at the Grade 3 Prioress Stakes, the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes, and the Disco Partner Stakes.

Race 4 — Grade 3 Prioress Stakes

The fourth race on Sunday is the Grade 3 Prioress Stakes, a six-furlong dirt sprint for three-year-old fillies.

#1 Mythical (9-2)

Mythical should show speed from the inside post under Edgar Zayas. She has been unable to find the winner’s circle in her last three starts, all at Saratoga.

She has shown considerably better numbers in the past, however. Going back to her Gulfstream Park form, she posted final-time ratings of 131 and 132, accompanied by pace ratings of 140 and 144. If she can rediscover that form, she could be competitive from the inside.

#2 Vekoma’s Diva (12-1)

Vekoma’s Diva added blinkers last time and finished second in a six-furlong race at Saratoga. She has three starts and three top-three finishes, so there is still upside here, but this is a significantly tougher spot.

Her 116 final-time rating last time isn’t fast enough on paper to make her a major win contender.

#3 Mashallah (7-5)

Mashallah looks like one of the main horses to beat.

She has won three of four career starts, and all three victories have been impressive. She won her six-furlong debut at Keeneland before scoring back-to-back victories at Saratoga and Colonial Downs.

Her most recent victory came in a seven-furlong stakes race at Colonial Downs, where she won by 5½ lengths while earning a 126 final-time rating. Prior to that, she won at Saratoga with a 138 final-time rating.

Her pace ratings of 144 and 162 are also impressive. Manny Franco will ride for trainer Brendan Walsh.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest 

With Anticipation + Spinaway Stakes Analysis (9-5-26)

Saratoga Race Course is entering closing week, and Saturday, September 5 features two graded stakes races worth a close look. In this article, I’ll analyze the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes for 2-year-olds on the turf and the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes for 2-year-old fillies on the main track.

Race 2 — Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes

The second race is the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes, a $225,000 event for 2-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on Saratoga’s inner turf course.

There are just five horses in the field, with Todd Pletcher sending out three of them.

The Field

1. Howard’s Hope (8-1)
Howard’s Hope comes off a nice debut victory at Saratoga, winning a 1 1/16-mile turf maiden special weight race by a length. He earned a 104 final-time rating in that August 6 victory and drew the inside post for this race. Jose Lezcano should be able to save ground while allowing him to settle off the pace.

2. Liam’s Law (5-2)
Liam’s Law earned a 90 final-time rating in his debut at 5 1/2 furlongs in the slop before improving dramatically in his second start. He wired a 1 1/16-mile turf race at Saratoga on July 12, earning a 122 final-time rating and 119 pace rating.

He could be the controlling speed in this short field. Ricardo Santana Jr. takes over, and he is 3-for-12 riding for Pletcher.

3. High Official (7-5)
Flavien Prat sticks with Todd Pletcher’s Not This Time colt after guiding him to a two-length victory in his July 26 debut. The colt tracked the pace before making his move and earned a 122 final-time rating.

He’s the morning-line favorite and certainly has the numbers to win this race.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Saratoga Stakes Video Analysis (9-4-26)

 Video analysis of the P. G. Johnson Stakes and Seeking the Ante Stakes at Saratoga (9-4-26). 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Bernard Baruch Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (9-3-26)

Video analysis of the $200,000 Bernard Baruch Stakes at Saratoga (9-3-26). 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Del Mar Pick 6 Carryover Analysis (8-30-26)

The Del Mar Pick Six sequence on Sunday, August 30 features a two-day carryover of more than $192,000, making the sequence especially attractive for players looking to take a shot at a potentially lucrative payoff.

Below is my race-by-race analysis of the Pick Six, including my top contenders, horses I would use underneath, and my preferred selections for keeping the ticket manageable.

The past-performance information used for this analysis is from Sunday’s Complete Digest.

Race 5 — Maiden Special Weight

California-bred 2-year-old fillies | 6 furlongs | 11 horses

The opening leg of the Pick Six is a competitive maiden special weight event.

According to the Today’s Racing Digest speed and pace forecasts, No. 3 Sauced Up has the best projected numbers across the board, including the Fire Number, CPR, pace, final time, closing fraction and Fast Fig. However, she has already made four starts and has hit the board in each one. I’m not convinced there’s much improvement left to come, particularly with the switch back to the main track.

My top four contenders are:

• No. 1 Not So Merry Mary
• No. 6 Take Revenge
• No. 8 Her Strut
• No. 9 Sono Veloce

For a larger Pick Six ticket, all four are worth considering. However, I’m going to narrow the race down to two horses.

Top Choice: No. 8 Her Strut

Her Strut has made two career starts. She encountered trouble in her debut but rallied to finish third, then raced wide and finished fourth in her second start.

I’m willing to give her another chance if she can get a cleaner trip.

Antonio Fresu takes over for trainer George Papaprodromou, and the jockey and trainer have been successful together. If Her Strut gets a better trip this time, I think she has a legitimate chance to graduate.

Second Choice: No. 1 Not So Merry Mary

Not So Merry Mary makes her second career start after debuting in a five-furlong turf race. She didn’t hit the board but took some money and gained valuable experience.

The move to the main track could produce improvement for trainer Tim Yakteen, who has been winning at a solid rate with dirt sprint starters. Kazushi Kimura returns to ride.

Pick Six: 1, 8

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Race 6 — $32,000 Claiming

5 furlongs on turf | 11 horses

The second leg is a five-furlong turf sprint.

The recent track profile is interesting. Over the last 27 races at this distance, front runners have won approximately 18.5% of the time, while pressers and mid-pack runners have been winning at much higher rates.

That makes running style an important consideration.

The Today’s Racing Digest projections give No. 9 Code Duello the best numbers, including an 88 Fire Number, 128 CPR, 124 Fast Fig and 134 final time rating.

My primary contenders are:

• No. 4 Daniel’s Magic
• No. 8 Gregory’s Pride
• No. 9 Code Duello

I also think No. 1 Agency and No. 2 Harcyn could hit the board and are worth considering for exotic wagers.

Top Choice: No. 4 Daniel’s Magic

Daniel’s Magic is a presser, which fits the recent profile of this turf sprint distance.

He ran well when returning to turf at five furlongs last time, finishing second in a $25,000 claiming event. He also gets a better post position this time, moving from post eight in a nine-horse field to post four.

Trainer Craig Dollase has a solid win percentage with turf sprinters, and Kazushi Kimura takes the mount.

The tactical speed and middle post should allow Daniel’s Magic to sit behind the leaders and potentially get first run on the deeper closers.

Second Choice: No. 9 Code Duello

Code Duello owns the strongest projected numbers in the race and comes into the event in good form.

He’s capable of either setting the pace or tracking it, which gives him some versatility. If he reproduces his recent form, he should be right there.

Pick Six: 4, 9

Read more at Today's Racing Digest