Saturday, October 24, brings three intriguing stakes races at Keeneland, featuring promising two-year-olds, a competitive older-horse dirt route field, and a deep group of three-year-old turf runners.
In this preview, I’ll break down the key contenders in each race and examine their recent speed ratings and running styles.
Race 6: Bowman Mill Stakes
$250,000 | Two-year-olds | Six furlongs | Dirt
The Bowman Mill Stakes features a five-horse field of two-year-olds, including two runners coming off impressive performances. My main focus is on Grand Yaupon, who showed significant improvement after adding blinkers, and Conviction, an intriguing second-time starter with plenty of upside.
1. Conviction (5-2)
Conviction won his debut at Gulfstream Park at five furlongs by three lengths, earning a 126 final-time rating and a 144 pace rating.
Breaking from the inside post, he should have an opportunity to make the running. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has Tyler Gaffalione aboard, and he could take another step forward in just his second career start.
The main question is whether he can improve enough to handle more experienced rivals, but his debut was encouraging.
2. Grand Yaupon (9-5)
Grand Yaupon is my top choice.
His form has followed an interesting progression. After earning an 89 final-time rating in his debut, he improved to 117 when winning a six-furlong maiden race at Saratoga. He subsequently earned a 104 when finishing second in a stakes race at Ellis Park.
A turf experiment at Kentucky Downs did not work out, as he finished eighth at six and a half furlongs. However, his return to dirt in the Clever Trevor Stakes at Remington Park produced a breakthrough performance.
With blinkers added, Grand Yaupon tracked the pace from third before winning by a half-length. He earned a 132 final-time rating and a 138 pace rating.
That was a substantial improvement, and If he reproduces that last effort, he could be tough to beat.
3. Just for Pipa (6-1)
Just for Pipa won his debut at Churchill Downs at six and a half furlongs, earning a 104 final-time rating and a 131 pace rating.
He has shown enough early speed to be forwardly placed, but he will need to run faster to compete with the leading contenders in this field.
4. Teacher (30-1)
Teacher is a first-time starter facing a challenging assignment.
The trainer has won two of four starts with first-time starters and two of eight in dirt sprint races. Sire Pinehurst has produced two winners from 16 first-time starters.
Those statistics provide some encouragement, but this is a difficult spot to debut against the other horses who have already demonstrated ability on the racetrack. I would prefer to see Teacher gain experience before backing him.
5. Booked (6-5)
Booked is the likely favorite for trainer Steve Asmussen and he has valuable stakes experience.
He has raced five times, recording two wins, two seconds, and a third. His last three starts were in graded stakes, including a Grade 3 victory, a runner-up finish in a Grade 2, and a third-place finish in a Grade 1.
His final-time ratings progressed from 99 to 122 and 131 before slipping to 119 and 111 in his most recent outings.
Booked began his career in April at four and a half furlongs, making him an early-developing two-year-old. Although he fits with this group, his recent numbers suggest he has not continued to improve.
He also has limited experience at six furlongs, but his 131 winning effort at that distance shows what he can do when firing his best shot.
Race 8: Grade 3 Fayette Stakes
$350,000 | Three-year-olds and up | One mile and one-eighth | Dirt
The Fayette Stakes brings together an accomplished group of older dirt horses. The field includes multiple graded stakes winners, one runner coming off layoff (Tumbarumba), and several horses whose recent speed ratings leave them with something to prove.
1. Hit Show (4-1)
Hit Show has considerable back class and is my choice to rebound.
I selected him in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic last time, but he was unable to make an impact in a race dominated by eventual winner and race favorite Knightsbridge. He finished fifth, beaten 13 lengths, and appeared to have little left for the stretch.
That performance was disappointing, but his overall record deserves respect. Hit Show won the Dubai World Cup in 2025 and has multiple graded stakes victories in the United States. He has also won twice in dirt routes at Keeneland and owns a 10-for-25 record in dirt routes overall, with three seconds and two thirds.
Breaking from the rail, he should have an opportunity to save ground behind the speed. He can sit within striking range if the pace is manageable or settle farther back if the early fractions are demanding.
I am willing to give this six-year-old another chance based on his class, proven dirt-route form, and record over this track (3-for-3).
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