Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes Analysis (9-9-26)

The Juvenile Mile Stakes at Kentucky Downs is set for Wednesday, September 9, with a $750,000 purse for 2-year-olds competing at one mile on the turf. Scheduled post time is 6:17 p.m. Eastern.

Kentucky Downs presents a unique challenge for young horses. Its undulating turf course can be difficult to navigate, and some horses handle the course considerably better than others. With several runners stretching out in distance, switching surfaces, or making their Kentucky Downs debuts, local experience could be especially important in this race.

The following analysis uses past performance data from Today’s Racing Digest’s Complete Digest.

Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes Field

#1 Sir Hansen (8-1)

Sir Hansen won his debut at Ellis Park going one mile on good turf, tracking the pace before finishing in a dead heat for the victory. He earned a 107 final-time rating and finished with a strong 24.3-second final fraction.

Flavien Prat takes over in the saddle, which could be a significant positive. From the inside post, Sir Hansen should have an opportunity to save ground while staying reasonably close to the pace.

He looks like a legitimate contender if he can improve his speed figures in his second start.

#2 Caribbean Warrior (15-1)

Caribbean Warrior improved when he stretched out and switched to turf in his second career start at Ellis Park. He went wire to wire at one mile and earned a 107 final-time rating.

His 85 Fire Number is the one of the best in the field, and he figures to be involved in the pace again.

The presence of a next-out winner among the horses he defeated last time is another positive.

#3 Agate (12-1)

Agate is one of the more interesting horses in the race.

After debuting at five furlongs on turf, he stretched out to one mile at Ellis Park and responded with a convincing victory. He was involved throughout the race, then kicked away to win by more than four lengths.

His final-time rating improved from 92 to 113, while his pace rating climbed to 117. He also finished with a strong 24.4-second final fraction.

Agate has already shown that he can handle the mile, and another improvement could put him right in the mix.

#4 Otherworldly (12-1)

Otherworldly ships in from Ireland for trainer Joseph O’Brien and will have John Velazquez aboard.

He has raced three times in turf sprints overseas, finishing second twice. His most recent effort came at seven furlongs on yielding turf, where he finished second in a 15-horse field.

The lack of U.S. past-performance figures makes him more difficult to evaluate, but his overseas form suggests he deserves some respect. At a morning-line price of 12-1, he could offer value underneath.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Dueling Grounds Oaks 2026 Analysis (9-9-26)

The Dueling Grounds Oaks at Kentucky Downs is the 12th race on Wednesday, September 9. The Grade 3 event carries a $2 million purse and is restricted to three-year-old fillies. The race will be contested at 1 5/16 miles on the turf, with a scheduled post time of 6:49 p.m. Eastern.

The past-performance information used in this analysis is provided by Today’s Racing Digest, whose Complete Digest product includes the speed, pace, and past-performance information used here.

The Dueling Grounds Oaks Field

1. Bless Her (15-1)

Bless Her is trained by Graham Motion and will have John Velazquez aboard. She was fourth of eight in the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks last time out at 14-1.

She is 2-for-7 overall, with a second and a third in addition to her two victories. One important consideration is her lasix history: her two wins and a nose defeat came when she was racing with lasix. She will not have lasix for this race.

Bless Her has enough tactical speed to potentially secure a forward position, particularly because this field doesn’t contain a confirmed front-runner.

2. Charm of Venice (20-1)

Charm of Venice is 20-1 on the morning line and will make her first start for trainer Brendan Walsh. Brian Hernandez Jr. gets the mount.

She won at 1 5/16 miles on soft turf in Ireland on June 20. The biggest question is where she fits from a class standpoint against this American group.

Walsh has had solid results with horses shipping in from overseas, so this is a horse worth keeping an eye on despite the lack of U.S. speed-figure data.

3. Haute Diva (10-1)

Haute Diva is trained by Patrick Biancone. She was sixth in the Grade 2 Beverly D. at Colonial Downs last time out, where she faced older fillies and mares.

That class drop back into a race restricted to three-year-olds could help. She earned a 131 final-time rating in that Beverly D. effort and previously posted a 134 on an all-weather surface in a stakes race.

She may need to improve slightly to win here, but the return to her own age group is encouraging.

4. Turner’s Charm (10-1)

Turner’s Charm is another Brendan Walsh trainee, with Ben Curtis returning to ride.

She missed by just a head in the Pucker Up Stakes at Ellis Park on August 2, rallying from off the pace in a 1 1/8-mile turf race. She earned a 135 final-time rating in that effort, an improvement over her previous numbers.

Her past performances suggest that longer distances have brought out her best. Her three longest races have also been her three best efforts, including victories at 1 1/16 miles and the strong second-place finish at 1 1/8 miles.

That makes the 1 5/16-mile distance particularly interesting.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Del Mar Closing Day Stakes Analysis (9-7-26)

Del Mar’s summer meet comes to a close on Monday, September 7, with a pair of stakes races on the 11-race program. The card features the I’m Smokin’ Stakes for California-bred 2-year-olds and the Grade 2 John C. Mabee Stakes for fillies and mares.

Using the past-performance data from Today’s Racing Digest’s Complete Digest, here’s a look at both stakes races, including projected Fire Numbers, CPR Ratings, Fast Figs, and Final Time Ratings.

Race 6 – I’m Smokin’ Stakes

The I’m Smokin’ Stakes is for 2-year-olds bred in California and will be contested at six furlongs on Del Mar’s main track.

The distance has generally favored speed horses. In 21 races at six furlongs, front-runners have won 57% of the time, while pressers have accounted for nearly 29% of the victories. Midpack runners have won about 9.5% and horses coming from farther back less than 5%.

That makes this a particularly important race for horses with tactical or early speed.

The Field

• #1 Little King (6-1) – Maiden after two starts
• #2 Prime Splash (20-1) – Expected to show speed
• #3 Cupid Cowboy (8-1) – Maiden winner at 52-1 odds
• #4 Fumano’s Fire (15-1) – Expected to show speed
• #5 Empire of Ash (6-1) – Maiden second-time starter
• #6 Net Par (8-5) – Graduation Stakes winner
• #7 Early Encore (8-5) – Third in the Graduation Stakes

Speed and Pace Forecasts

The Today’s Racing Digest speed-and-pace forecast gives Little King some of the strongest individual numbers in the field.

Little King earned an 85 Fire Number in his debut, indicating strong speed throughout that race. He also recorded a 129 CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating) in that first start, along with a 129 Final Time Rating.

However, his numbers dropped considerably in his second race. His Final Time Rating fell to 93, meaning the key question is whether he can return to the level he demonstrated in his debut.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Saratoga Stakes Analysis for Monday (9-7-26)

Saratoga Race Course wraps up its summer meet on Monday, September 7, with two $200,000 stakes races on the card. The 10th race is the Funny Cide Stakes for New York-bred 2-year-olds going six furlongs on the main track, followed by the Gio Ponti Stakes for 3-year-olds going one mile on the turf.

Here’s a look at the key contenders in each race and their Today’s Racing Digest numbers.

Race 10 — $200,000 Funny Cide Stakes

The Funny Cide Stakes brings together a group of promising New York-bred 2-year-olds.

#1 Professor Plum (6-1)

Professor Plum earned a 99 final-time rating when rallying to win his debut at 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga on July 12. The runner-up from that race returned to win next time out, which gives the effort some added credibility.

Professor Plum figures to save ground behind the speed and could make a late run for a share. However, he’ll need to improve on that 99 rating to beat some of the faster horses in this field.

#2 Fullcup (2-1)

Fullcup looked impressive winning his debut at Saratoga on July 31. He earned a 114 final-time rating and a 129 pace rating, winning by more than four lengths.The biggest question this time is his inside post. In his debut, Fullcup was able to track outside before running down the competition. From post two, he’ll have to deal with a potentially different trip and may have to race closer to the rail.

If Junior Alvarado can work him into the clear, Fullcup has enough ability to be a major factor.

#3 Minefield (5-2)

Minefield is still a maiden, but he ran well enough in his debut to make him a serious contender here.

He finished second in that first start while earning a 119 final-time rating and a 134 pace rating. Those numbers put him right in the mix with the more experienced winners in this field.

Minefield has enough tactical speed to work out a good trip, and if he improves in his second start, he could turn the tables on one of the horses who has already beaten him (Scramjet).

#4 D I Wire (8-1)

D I Wire won his July 12 maiden special weight at Saratoga by more than a length. He earned a 95 final-time rating along with a 137 pace rating.

The pace figure is encouraging, but the final-time rating suggests he’ll need significant improvement to compete with the top contenders here.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Saratoga Stakes Analysis for Sunday (9-6-26)

Saratoga Race Course is heading into the final days of its summer meet, and Sunday, September 6, features three stakes races worth watching. In this analysis, I’ll take a closer look at the Grade 3 Prioress Stakes, the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes, and the Disco Partner Stakes.

Race 4 — Grade 3 Prioress Stakes

The fourth race on Sunday is the Grade 3 Prioress Stakes, a six-furlong dirt sprint for three-year-old fillies.

#1 Mythical (9-2)

Mythical should show speed from the inside post under Edgar Zayas. She has been unable to find the winner’s circle in her last three starts, all at Saratoga.

She has shown considerably better numbers in the past, however. Going back to her Gulfstream Park form, she posted final-time ratings of 131 and 132, accompanied by pace ratings of 140 and 144. If she can rediscover that form, she could be competitive from the inside.

#2 Vekoma’s Diva (12-1)

Vekoma’s Diva added blinkers last time and finished second in a six-furlong race at Saratoga. She has three starts and three top-three finishes, so there is still upside here, but this is a significantly tougher spot.

Her 116 final-time rating last time isn’t fast enough on paper to make her a major win contender.

#3 Mashallah (7-5)

Mashallah looks like one of the main horses to beat.

She has won three of four career starts, and all three victories have been impressive. She won her six-furlong debut at Keeneland before scoring back-to-back victories at Saratoga and Colonial Downs.

Her most recent victory came in a seven-furlong stakes race at Colonial Downs, where she won by 5½ lengths while earning a 126 final-time rating. Prior to that, she won at Saratoga with a 138 final-time rating.

Her pace ratings of 144 and 162 are also impressive. Manny Franco will ride for trainer Brendan Walsh.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest 

With Anticipation + Spinaway Stakes Analysis (9-5-26)

Saratoga Race Course is entering closing week, and Saturday, September 5 features two graded stakes races worth a close look. In this article, I’ll analyze the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes for 2-year-olds on the turf and the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes for 2-year-old fillies on the main track.

Race 2 — Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes

The second race is the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes, a $225,000 event for 2-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on Saratoga’s inner turf course.

There are just five horses in the field, with Todd Pletcher sending out three of them.

The Field

1. Howard’s Hope (8-1)
Howard’s Hope comes off a nice debut victory at Saratoga, winning a 1 1/16-mile turf maiden special weight race by a length. He earned a 104 final-time rating in that August 6 victory and drew the inside post for this race. Jose Lezcano should be able to save ground while allowing him to settle off the pace.

2. Liam’s Law (5-2)
Liam’s Law earned a 90 final-time rating in his debut at 5 1/2 furlongs in the slop before improving dramatically in his second start. He wired a 1 1/16-mile turf race at Saratoga on July 12, earning a 122 final-time rating and 119 pace rating.

He could be the controlling speed in this short field. Ricardo Santana Jr. takes over, and he is 3-for-12 riding for Pletcher.

3. High Official (7-5)
Flavien Prat sticks with Todd Pletcher’s Not This Time colt after guiding him to a two-length victory in his July 26 debut. The colt tracked the pace before making his move and earned a 122 final-time rating.

He’s the morning-line favorite and certainly has the numbers to win this race.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Saratoga Stakes Video Analysis (9-4-26)

 Video analysis of the P. G. Johnson Stakes and Seeking the Ante Stakes at Saratoga (9-4-26). 

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