Smart And Fancy Stakes Analysis (8-14-26)

The Smart and Fancy Stakes at Saratoga Race Course on Friday, August 14, is a $200,000 turf sprint for fillies and mares going 5½ furlongs. The scheduled post time is 5:44 p.m. ET.

The race features a highly competitive group, and here is a look at the field and the top contenders.

Smart and Fancy Stakes Field

1. Me Governor (12-1)

Me Governor enters this race after finishing fourth, beaten a length, in a 5½-furlong turf race at Churchill Downs on June 28. She was claimed for $100,000 out of that race by trainer Joe Sharp, who has a solid record with horses making their first start after a claim.

She has raced nine times at 5½ furlongs, winning twice while adding a second and two thirds. Her ability to use different running styles could be an asset in a race with several horses likely to show speed. At her morning-line price, she is an interesting candidate to hit the board.

2. Delightful Flame (10-1)

Delightful Flame figures to be one of the main pace factors. She won her most recent start going wire to wire from the inside post in a six-furlong turf optional-claiming race.

Her lone turf start at Saratoga came in the Galway Stakes last summer and she chased the pace and faded to last of nine. If she can establish a comfortable lead, she could make things difficult for the closers, but that scenario seems unlikely.

3. Praying (8-1)

Praying makes a surface switch for trainer Robert Medina, moving from dirt to turf. Medina has a modest record with first-time turf starters, but the pedigree provides some encouragement. Her sire, Vekoma, has produced a respectable percentage of first-time turf runners, and her dam has produced a turf winner.

The bigger concern is current form. She has struggled in her last several starts, including Grade 1 and Grade 2 competition. She did post a solid turf workout at Saratoga on August 7, going four furlongs in 48.40 seconds, second-fastest of 24 horses. A return to her best form would make her interesting, but she has plenty to prove.

4. Le Amazonia (8-1)

Le Amazonia has been consistent, recording 11 top-two finishes in 14 starts. She has also shown an affinity for abbreviated turf sprints.

She has finished second in each of her last two starts at five furlongs on turf, and she has demonstrated the ability to rally from farther back when circumstances require it. Junior Alvarado reunites with her after guiding her to victory at Gulfstream Park earlier this year. Her versatility makes her a realistic contender to hit the board.

5. Capturing (5-1)

Capturing has finished in the top three in eight of her nine starts, including three victories, and two of those wins came at 5½ furlongs on turf.

She has also already won at Saratoga at this distance. At Keeneland in April, she tracked the pace in a 12-horse field before drawing away to win by 2¼ lengths at 5½ furlongs. She returned to Saratoga on July 10 and rallied to win a seven-horse optional-claiming race by a nose.

The distance appears to be ideal, she handles the Saratoga turf, and she should get the pace scenario she needs. Trainer Todd Pletcher’s Saratoga stable has also been showing improved form after a slow start to the meet.

The biggest question is whether Irad Ortiz Jr. will be able to ride. Ortiz has been dealing with a foot issue and his status is day-to-day.

6. Miss Vyvyanne (5-2)

Miss Vyvyanne is the most accomplished winner in the field, with 12 victories from 25 starts. She is also 6-for-7 in abbreviated turf sprints and 7-for-10 overall on turf.

She enters off a Grade 2 victory at Woodbine, where she went wire to wire at five furlongs. She has been in excellent form for much of the past year and possesses the early speed to make the lead.

The question is whether she can carry that speed an extra half-furlong. If she gets loose or establishes reasonable fractions, however, she could be extremely difficult to catch.

7. Itzel (8-1)

Itzel is another likely pace player. She set the pace before finishing second in a stakes race at Ellis Park last time out, going 5½ furlongs on yielding turf.

Her overall 2026 form is strong: five starts with two wins and three runner-up finishes. Tyler Gaffalione takes over in the saddle, and she figures to be part of the early pace battle.

8. Ratu Jawa (50-1)

Ratu Jawa faces a difficult assignment. She has just one victory from eight starts and is winless in three attempts at this distance and four starts on turf.

She did finish fourth, beaten a little more than three lengths, in her last start at 19-1 odds, but this is a substantially tougher spot. She will need to improve significantly to factor.

9. Zeitlos (2-1)

Zeitlos is the morning-line favorite, but she is still searching for her first turf victory. She has five turf starts with three runner-up finishes, including two seconds at Saratoga at this distance.

She rallied from last in a nine-horse field to finish second in last year’s Grade 3 Caress Stakes. This year, she again finished second in the Caress, which was upgraded to Grade 2 status.

Zeitlos should get plenty of pace to chase, and Jose Ortiz returns in the saddle. The concern is that she has repeatedly come close without winning on turf. She also benefited from a strong pace setup and an inside trip in her most recent race.

Check out my Smart And Fancy Stakes video at The Runaway Horse

Birdstone Stakes 2026 Analysis (8-13-26)

The Birdstone Stakes at Saratoga is set for Thursday, August 13, with a scheduled post time of 5:14 p.m. ET. The $200,000 event for three-year-olds and up will be contested at 1 3/4 miles on the main track.

The marathon distance should make stamina and proven dirt form especially important. Parchment Party is 2-for-2 at the distance and is the obvious horse to beat.

Before getting into the Birdstone field, it’s worth noting that last Sunday produced two video top-choice winners. Igniter won the Ellis Park Derby at even-money for trainer Rick Dutrow, while Zihnal, ridden by John Velazquez, won the West Virginia Derby at 3-1. Hopefully, that momentum continues into this week’s stakes races.

No. 1 Parchment Party (8-5)

Parchment Party is the morning-line favorite for trainer Bill Mott, with John Velazquez returning to the saddle.

The biggest positive is his proven record at this demanding distance. He is 2-for-2 at 1 3/4 miles and 2-for-3 at Saratoga. Both of his wins at the distance came in stakes races, including last year’s Birdstone Stakes.

Parchment Party defeated Interceptor in the Isaac Murphy Marathon earlier this year and also edged Jokestar in the Temperence Hill Stakes at 1 1/2 miles. His ability to save ground from the inside post should also help, particularly in a race where several horses could be looking for position going into the first turn.

His seventh-place finish in the Grade 2 Suburban can be forgiven. That race was essentially a prep for this event, and the 1 1/4-mile distance was shorter than ideal for him.

He is clearly the horse to beat, but at a short price, I’m willing to look for a little more value.

No. 2 Annexperience (10-1)

Annexperience has a respectable overall record, with three wins, four seconds and a third-place finish from 10 starts.

He is also 1-for-1 at Saratoga and has shown a particular affinity for wet dirt, winning both of his starts over wet tracks by a combined 17 1/2 lengths.

The problem is the class and distance hike.

He has been competing against New York-bred allowance and optional-claiming company and will now jump into a $200,000 stakes race while stretching all the way to 1 3/4 miles. He has also been effective when setting the pace, so he could be the horse to catch.

There are simply too many questions to make him one of my top four.

No. 3 Stars and Stripes (5-2)

Stars and Stripes is the second choice on the morning line for Bill Mott and will reunite with Luis Saez, who rode him to back-to-back victories at Oaklawn and Keeneland earlier this year.

He won the Grade 3 Ben Ali at 1 3/16 miles in April, but his most recent effort in the Grade 2 Suburban was a major disappointment. He finished eighth, beaten 17 lengths, after racing wide from post nine in an 11-horse field.

The biggest question here is whether he wants 1 3/4 miles. Mott had considered running him in a shorter stakes race at Monmouth (G3 Iselin at 1 1/16 miles on Aug. 15), but ultimately entered him here.

Stars and Stripes has talent, but the added distance makes him difficult to endorse at 5-2.

No. 4 Passing Game (15-1)

Passing Game is one of the more interesting longshots in the field.

Tyler Gaffalione gets the mount on a horse with three wins, four seconds and a third from 12 starts. He is also 1-for-1 at Saratoga.

The distance probably won’t trip him up. He has already competed in long-distance stakes races, including a two-mile turf stakes in October 2025 (2nd) and a Grade 3 event at Woodbine at 1 1/2 miles (3rd).

He also has solid dirt numbers, with two wins and two runner-up finishes from six starts on the surface.

His most recent race was a ninth-place finish on turf at 1 3/8 miles, but he drew post 10 and never really became involved. Now he returns to dirt for his third start of the year.

At 15-1, Passing Game could be an interesting underneath horse in trifectas and especially superfectas. I could see him tracking Annexperience from second and getting first run if the pace develops favorably.

No. 5 Waitlist (20-1)

Waitlist has three wins, six seconds and a third from 27 starts, but he is winless in four starts at Saratoga.

He did win an entry-level allowance race at 1 1/8 miles at Aqueduct in April, but his last three starts have produced finishes of fifth, eighth and fifth, all against optional-claiming company.

Those races came at 1 1/8 miles on dirt and 1 3/8 miles on turf, so stretching out to 1 3/4 miles is a major question.

At 20-1, he will likely be overlooked for good reason.

No. 6 Interceptor (9-2)

Interceptor is a legitimate top three contender.

Trainer Mike Maker has a consistent horse here, as Interceptor has finished in the top three in each of his last seven starts. His overall record is three wins, four seconds and two thirds from 13 starts.

He has also already proven that he can handle demanding distances. Parchment Party defeated him by just 1 1/4 lengths in the Isaac Murphy Marathon at 1 1/2 miles, while Interceptor also finished second in the Excelsior Stakes at 1 1/4 miles.

Last time out, he tracked the pace, took the lead and finished third, beaten just 1 1/2 lengths. He missed second by a nose and finished six lengths ahead of the fourth-place finisher.

That tactical speed could be especially useful in this race.

The only real concern is the rider situation. Irad Ortiz Jr. is listed to ride, but he was dealing with a foot injury and missed mounts last weekend.

No. 7 Jokestar (4-1)

The key to Jokestar’s success is the surface.

He has been far more effective on conventional dirt than on all-weather or turf. On fast dirt, he has four wins, a second and a third from seven starts. On all-weather tracks, however, he is just 1-for-12, while he is 0-for-2 on turf.

His most recent start came in the Grade 2 Eclipse Stakes on all-weather at Woodbine. He finished fifth, beaten about 12 lengths, but I’m willing to draw a line through that performance.

The return to conventional dirt could make a major difference.

Jokestar was a stakes winner earlier this year in the Post Time Stakes at Laurel Park, winning by more than six lengths after tracking the pace. He also finished a close second to Parchment Party in the Temperence Hill Stakes.

That Temperence Hill performance is particularly encouraging. Jokestar was right there with Parchment Party, and now he gets another opportunity to turn the tables.

He also gets Jose Ortiz in the saddle and has been training well. Jokestar posted a bullet five-furlong workout at Woodbine on July 31, covering the distance in 59 4/5 seconds, fastest of five horses.

His versatility is another positive. He can sit off the pace, make a move from the middle of the pack or rally from farther back.

If the track is fast, I believe Jokestar has a chance to produce a rebound performance and upset the favorite.

No. 8 Carolo Rapido (20-1)

Carolo Rapido is the other big longshot in the field.

He has six wins from 22 starts and has put together several solid recent efforts. He won a $50,000 claiming race at Keeneland in April, was claimed that day, and then finished second in a $62,500 claiming race at Churchill Downs.

Trainer Norm Casse claimed him on May 14, and Carolo Rapido subsequently finished third in a starter allowance event.

The problem is the class hike and the outside post. He is moving into a stakes race, stretching out in distance and facing significantly tougher competition.

He looks up against it.

Check out my Birdstone Stakes video at The Runaway Horse 

The Triple Crown Series Is Broken----And Racing Made Things Worse

The Triple Crown has always been one of the most compelling storylines in American horse racing. Every spring, fans follow the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes, hoping to see a horse attempt something that has become extraordinarily difficult: winning all three races.

But the Triple Crown has been changing, and not necessarily for the better.

The latest developments surrounding the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes have created even more questions about where the series is headed. Instead of fixing the problems that have fractured the Triple Crown, Churchill Downs and the New York Racing Association (NYRA) have now announced an entirely new six-race series for three-year-olds.

In my opinion, that’s the wrong solution.

The Biggest Problem: Trainers Don’t Want to Run Back in Two Weeks

The fundamental problem with the modern Triple Crown is pretty simple: many trainers no longer want to run their horses back just two weeks after the Kentucky Derby.

That wasn’t nearly as much of an issue in the past, but it has become increasingly important in today’s racing environment.

We’ve already seen recent Kentucky Derby winners skip the Preakness and then win the Belmont Stakes. That’s a major indication that the traditional spacing of the Triple Crown races isn’t working the way it once did.

And it’s not just the Derby winner. Fewer Kentucky Derby horses that finish behind the winner are coming back for the Preakness.

The result is a Triple Crown series that has been increasingly fragmented.

Read more at The Runaway Horse

New Preakness Stakes 2027 Date + Triple Crown Series News

 In this video, I discuss the current state of the thoroughbred Triple Crown Series, the new Preakness 2027 date, and the new 6-race CD/NYRA series.

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Ellis Park Derby + West Virginia Derby Video Analysis (8-9-26)

Video analysis of the Ellis Park Derby and West Virginia Derby (8-9-26). 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Troy Stakes 2026 Analysis at Saratoga (8-9-26)

The Troy Stakes is the final stakes race of the weekend at Saratoga on Sunday, August 9. The Grade 2 event carries a $300,000 purse and is scheduled for three-year-olds and up going 5½ furlongs on the turf. Post time is approximately 5:09 p.m. Eastern.

Let’s take a look at the field and the Digest speed and pace projections.

Troy Stakes Field

1. Dancing Buck (15-1)

Jose Ortiz picks up the mount on Dancing Buck, who is making his second start of the year.

He won a stakes race at Aqueduct last November going six furlongs on turf, but his return this year was disappointing. He finished sixth, beaten 11 lengths, in the Ashley T. Cole at six furlongs on the Aqueduct turf.

He’ll need a significant improvement to compete with this group.

2. Twenty Six Black (5-2)

Twenty Six Black is the morning-line favorite.

He has won three times at Saratoga and also owns three victories at today’s 5½-furlong distance. He enters off an impressive victory in the Harvey Pack Stakes at Saratoga, where he rallied strongly from off the pace to win by more than two lengths.

He also finished second in last year’s Troy Stakes at 10-1 odds, closing from off the pace. His current form appears even stronger, making him a major threat to take the Grade 2 event this year.

3. Doncho (3-1)

Doncho comes into the Troy Stakes in good form for trainer Michelle Lovell.

He has won seven of 13 career starts and is four-for-seven at the distance. He also enters with back-to-back stakes victories, including wins at five furlongs on the turf at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

His versatility could be important. He has shown that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead and could potentially sit just behind the early speed.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Whitney Stakes 2026 Analysis (8-8-26)

The Grade 1 Whitney Stakes is the marquee event on Saturday at Saratoga, offering a $1 million purse for a talented field of older horses. Contested at 1 1/8 miles, the Whitney is one of the premier races of the summer and often serves as a stepping stone toward the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

This year’s edition features accomplished Grade 1 winners, an improving filly taking on the boys, and several horses looking to rebound from recent defeats. Here’s a look at the leading contenders and how the race could unfold.

Pace Scenario

The pace should revolve around Magnitude, who breaks from the rail and has shown exceptional early speed in his recent victories. After wiring the Dubai World Cup, he returned to the United States and captured the Grade 1 Stephen Foster in front-running fashion over a sloppy track.

If Magnitude is allowed to dictate comfortable fractions again, he’ll be difficult to reel in.

Nitrogen is naturally tactical and figures to be prominent early, although she doesn’t require the lead to run her best race. Forged Steel could also add some pace pressure if he starts, preventing Magnitude from getting an uncontested trip.

Behind the leaders, horses like Antiquarian, White Abarrio, Sovereignty, and Baza should be positioned to make their moves turning for home.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

#1 Magnitude (9-5)

The morning-line favorite enters the Whitney in outstanding form.

He has won three of his four starts at the distance and continues to post strong speed figures while carrying his speed throughout the race. Consecutive bullet workouts at Saratoga suggest he’s maintained his excellent condition since winning the Stephen Foster.

From the rail, expect Jose Ortiz to send him immediately. If he controls the pace, he’ll be the horse everyone has to catch.

#2 Nitrogen (4-1)

Nitrogen has done little wrong throughout her career, finishing in the top three in every start while compiling an impressive Saratoga record.

Her dominant Grade 1 Ogden Phipps victory was visually impressive, but she enjoyed a perfect front-running trip against fillies. Facing older males presents a much tougher assignment, and duplicating that career-best effort may prove difficult if she’s forced to chase Magnitude early.

Still, her consistency makes her impossible to dismiss.

#3 Antiquarian (10-1)

Todd Pletcher’s barn has begun heating up again, and Antiquarian could offer value at generous odds.

He owns a Grade 1 victory at Saratoga and has previously earned speed figures that fit well with this field. His disappointing effort in the Suburban came after a troubled start, making it easier to forgive.

With a cleaner break, he projects to secure a stalking trip and could outrun his odds.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest