Churchill Downs 2026 Stakes Analysis (9-19-26)

Saturday night’s card at Churchill Downs features three interesting stakes races. Here’s a look at the $300,000 Harrods Creek Stakes, the Grade 3, $300,000 Dogwood Stakes, and the $200,000 Seneca Overnight Stakes.

Race 6 – $300,000 Harrods Creek Stakes

3-year-olds | 7 furlongs | Main Track | Scheduled post: 8:30 p.m. ET

The Harrods Creek Stakes brings together a field of three-year-olds at seven furlongs. There doesn’t appear to be an abundance of early speed, which could give an advantage to horses capable of staying close to the pace.

#1 Gilded Bandit

Gilded Bandit is a $550,000 son of Charlatan trained by Bill Mott. He has two wins from five starts and has already won at Churchill Downs.

His best races have produced final time ratings of 137 and 138, so he has the ability to compete with this group when he is at his best. The problem is that both of those victories came with lasix.

He has struggled in his last two graded-stakes appearances without lasix, losing those races by a combined 20 1/4 lengths. He is also a horse who prefers to make his run from off the pace.

#2 American Man

American Man is one of the most logical horses in the field and figures to be the favorite.

He has two wins and two seconds from five starts and has performed well at Churchill Downs. He also finished second in the Grade 3 Maxfield Stakes at seven furlongs, where he tracked the pace.

His pace figures are particularly impressive, with ratings of 155, 156, 143, 146 and 156 in his recent races. His final-time ratings have also been competitive, including a couple of figures in the high 130s.

He should be forwardly placed again, and the lack of significant early speed could work in his favor.

#3 Stop the Car

Stop the Car is a late-running horse for trainer Brendan Walsh. He has two wins and two thirds from seven starts and has won at Churchill Downs.

He earned a 137 final time rating in the Ellis Park Derby last time out. He also recorded a 131 when winning at Churchill at a one-turn mile.

The shorter seven-furlong distance should be an asset, but his running style is the biggest concern. He needs a pace to develop in front of him, and this race does not appear to contain enough speed to guarantee that scenario.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Presque Isle Masters 2026 Video Analysis (9-18-26)

Video analysis of the Grade 2, $300,000 Presque Isle Masters on Friday, September 18. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Jockey Club Gold Cup 2026 analysis (9-18-26)

Belmont Park is back in action, and opening day features a major Grade 1 event as the Jockey Club Gold Cup highlights the Friday, September 18 program.

The $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup is scheduled as the fifth race on the card, with a post time of 4:14 p.m. Eastern. The race is for three-year-olds and up and will be contested at 1¼ miles on the main track.

Jockey Club Gold Cup Field

No. 1 — Baeza (9-2)

Baeza could be dangerous if he finally gets a clean start.

The biggest concern with this horse has been his behavior leaving the starting gate. He has hesitated at the start twice this year and was off slowly in another race. Those poor starts may have cost him victories in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes and Grade 1 Stephen Foster.

He was fourth in the Grade 1 Whitney in his most recent start, again having trouble getting away cleanly.

Baeza has plenty of class, however, and his recent speed ratings are competitive. He has recorded strong Today’s Racing Digest numbers throughout his recent races, including 100 Fire Numbers in each of his last three starts.

The move back to 1¼ miles is interesting. He has three starts at the distance with a pair of third-place finishes.

Blinkers are coming off, Junior Alvarado gets back aboard for Bill Mott, and Baeza is coming off a sharp workout at Saratoga on September 12, where he covered five furlongs in 1:01 flat.

If he gets a clean break, he is capable of making an impact. The problem is that he hasn’t won since taking the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby as a sophomore last September, and he was no match for Forever Young in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last fall.

No. 2 — Stars and Stripes (15-1)

Stars and Stripes is another Bill Mott trainee and brings plenty of stamina to the race.

He is 5-for-9 lifetime with a second and third-place finish and has already demonstrated that longer distances are well within his capabilities.

He won the Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes at 1 3/16 miles and most recently stretched out to 1¾ miles, winning the Birdstone Stakes by a nose.

The concern here is the drastic cutback in distance.

Stars and Stripes was able to stalk the pace in the Birdstone, but the fractions were slow. It remains to be seen whether he will have enough speed to keep up with this group at 1¼ miles.

He faced Friday’s rival Phileas Fogg in the Grade 2 Suburban and was beaten 17 lengths, although Stars and Stripes subsequently came back to win the Birdstone.

He has the stamina, but the class and pace questions make him more attractive underneath than on top.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Iroquois Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (9-12-26)

Video analysis of the Grade 3, $300,000 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs (9-12-26). This is the first Kentucky Derby 2027 points race. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Woodbine Mile 2026 Analysis (9-12-26)

The 2026 Woodbine Mile is set for Saturday, September 12 at Woodbine, with the Grade 1 event carrying a $1 million purse. The race is for 3-year-olds and up and will be contested at one mile on the turf, with a scheduled post time of 5:20 p.m. Eastern.

Using past-performance data from the Complete Digest, I break down the field, examine the numbers, and identify the contenders.

Woodbine Mile Field

1. Deterministic (2-1)

Deterministic enters the Woodbine Mile in excellent form for trainer Miguel Clement and jockey Kendrick Carmouche.

The 5-year-old is 10-for-16 in his career with three seconds and a third-place finish. He is also 3-for-3 this year and already owns multiple Grade 1 victories, including the Fourstardave at Saratoga on Aug. 8.

Deterministic figures to be forwardly placed from the inside post. His ability to establish a good cruising speed could be an important asset, particularly if he gets an uncontested lead.

However, this one-turn mile presents a slightly different challenge. Much of Deterministic’s success has come at longer distances, including a mile and an eighth and a mile and three-sixteenths.

His strength is his determination and ability to keep fighting once he reaches the stretch. The concern is whether he can outkick horses with a stronger closing burst.

2. Gas Me Up (12-1)

Gas Me Up is looking to repeat his successful pattern from last year.

He won the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes last year before finishing third in the Woodbine Mile. He has now won the King Edward again, taking this year’s renewal by a nose.

The horse has six starts at Woodbine, with four victories and a third-place finish, and he is a three-time winner at one mile.

His 146 final-time rating in the King Edward was solid, but this year’s Woodbine Mile appears deeper. At 12-1 on the morning line, however, he could be interesting for the exotics.

3. Notable Speech (1-1)

Notable Speech is the morning-line favorite and strictly the horse to beat.

The Godolphin runner is trained by Charles Appleby and will be ridden by William Buick, who regularly rides the horse.

Notable Speech has won nine of 18 career starts and has earned nearly $4 million. He won this race last year before adding another major victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

He has also won two Group 1 races overseas this year, further establishing his credentials at the highest level.

Most importantly, Notable Speech owns the strongest closing kick in this field. That could prove decisive if Deterministic is in front turning for home.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Pocahontas Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (9-12-26)

Video analysis of the Grade 3, $300,000 Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs (9-12-26). This is the first Kentucky Oaks 2027 points race. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Super Derby 2026 Video Analysis (9-12-26)

 Video analysis of the $250,000 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs (9-12-26). 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.