Oaklawn Park: Rebel Stakes + Honeybee Stakes 2026 Analysis

On Sunday, March 1, I’m breaking down two major Kentucky prep races at Oaklawn Park: the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes (Race 9), a Kentucky Oaks 2026 points race, and the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes (Race 11), a Kentucky Derby 2026 points race.

For this analysis, I’m using the Complete Digest, which provides the Fire Number, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Ratings that shape my pace and class projections.

Race 9: Honeybee Stakes (G3)

Three-Year-Old Fillies – 1 1/16 Miles – Main Track

We have a competitive 10-horse field. From a pace standpoint, this race sets up for a presser. At 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn, pressers win 41.7% of the time, compared to 16.7% for front-runners. That profile is key.

Contenders Overview

Explorer (Top Pick)

Explorer has tactical speed and fits the ideal pressing profile. Two of her last three races featured big pace ratings (159 and 156), including a strong runner-up finish after doing the pace dirty work.

She was dominant in a seven-furlong stakes at Santa Anita earlier this year and followed that with a gritty second routing. With Flavien Prat aboard and a strong recent workout (59 flat, best of 45), she looks ready.

From post 9, she should sit just off the pace and get first run turning for home.

My Betting Takeaway: Explorer’s tactical speed plus Oaklawn’s pressing bias makes her my top choice.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Fountain of Youth Stakes 2026 Analysis (2-28-26)

The Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park is one of the most important early-season tests on the Road to Kentucky Derby 2026. Run at 1 1/16 miles for three-year-olds, this $425,000 event offers valuable Derby points and serves as a key stepping stone toward longer and tougher assignments this spring.

Race Overview

• Race: Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes
• Track: Gulfstream Park
• Distance: 1 1/16 miles
• Surface: Dirt
• Purse: $425,000
• Post Time: 6:11 p.m. ET
• Eligibility: 3-year-olds
• Kentucky Derby Points Race: Yes

Past performance data is powered by Today’s Racing Digest. If you’re playing the full card, you can find detailed analysis and data in the Complete Digest for Gulfstream Park.

Pace & Race Shape

There is legitimate early speed in this field:

• Napoleon Solo – Fast juvenile with early gas
• Solitude Dude – Perfect in three one-turn starts, wired the Swale
• Jackson Hole – Tactical speed from the rail
• Commandment – Versatile, forwardly placed runner

The presence of multiple pace players suggests an honest tempo. The key question: will someone get loose, or does a stalker sitting just off the lead get first run turning for home?

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Gotham Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (2-28-26)

Gotham Stakes video analysis at Aqueduct Racetrack (2-28-26). This is a Kentucky Derby 2026 points race. Road to Kentucky Derby 2026 video record (22 8-4-2).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Santa Anita Park Pick 6 Carryover Analysis (2-27-26)

There’s a $198,741 Pick Six carryover at Santa Anita for Friday, February 27, and with a two-day carryover, the total pool is expected to climb north of seven figures. That’s the kind of opportunity I circle.

I’ve taken a couple of shots at similar carryovers this meet on $16 tickets—cashable efforts with four and five winners. Now I’m looking to land the full six. Here’s how I’m attacking it using the Complete Digest and its projected Fire Numbers, CPR, Fast Figs, and Final Time Ratings.

Race 4 – Maiden Claiming $20,000 (Cal-Breds)

One Mile – Main Track

The mile on dirt has played speed-friendly:

• Front runners: 33% wins
• Pressers: 57% wins
• Midpack: 9.5%
• Deep closers: 0%

With only five horses entered, positioning is critical.

Key Contenders

• #1 Bandelero (7/5 ML) – Drops from tougher company and stretches back out. Inside post fits the profile.
• #2 Bossing Mo (3/1 ML) – Stretching out after sprint efforts. Strong early speed and competitive figures.
• #5 Oswald (5/2 ML) – Best projected Fire Number and CPR, but shipping from Turf Paradise raises class questions.

Race 5 – Allowance Optional Claiming (State-Breds)

One Mile – Turf

Turf mile profile:

• Front/Pressers: 52% combined
• Midpack: 41%
• Deep closers: 5.9%

You don’t want to be too far back.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Davona Dale Stakes 2026 Video Picks (2-28-26)

Davona Dale Stakes video analysis at Aqueduct (2-28-26). This is a Kentucky Oaks 2026 points race. Road to Kentucky Oaks 2026 video record (20 10-3-4).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Kentucky Derby 2026 Video Report (2-24-26)

In this Kentucky Derby 2026 video, I share my Exceptional 11 Derby contenders (2-24-26).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Road to Kentucky Derby Report (2-24-26)

The John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park was the latest road to Kentucky Derby prep race and Great White held off Fulleffort by a neck. In this report, I will recap the John Battaglia Memorial, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.

I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 22 points races, my top choices have 8 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 2 show finishes. The next Derby points race is the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Feb. 28. The Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park will also be run on Feb. 28, and the other Derby points race this week is the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 1.

Gotham field: 1 – Balboa, 2 – Hammond, 3 – Crown the Buckeye, 4 – Fourth and One, 5 – Right to Party, 6 – Iron Honor, 7 – Exhibition Only, 8 – Creole Chrome, 9 – Dirty Rich.

Fountain of Youth field: 1 – Jackson Hole, 2 – Rockies Balboa, 3 – Talkin, 4 – Commandment, 5 – Bravaro, 6 – Chief Wallabee, 7 – Napoleon Solo, 8 – Bull by the Horns, 9 – Global Aviator, 10 – Solitude Dude, 11 – Lost Money.

Rebel Stakes field: 1 – Bravaro, 2 – Litmus Test, 3 – Class President, 4 – Blackout Time, 5 – Honey’s To Blame, 6 – Strategic Risk, 7 – Silent Tactic, 8 – Rancho Santa Fe, 9 – Time for Music, 10 – Soldier N Diplomat.

Read more at The Runaway Horse.