Santa Anita Park Pick 6 Carryover Analysis (10-16-26)

The Pick Six at Santa Anita Park offers an enticing opportunity on Friday, October 16, with a carryover of more than $54,000. The $2 base wager begins in Race 4 and concludes with Race 9.

In this analysis, I’ll examine data from the Complete Digest, including track profile stats, speed and pace projections, final-time ratings, and trainer statistics to identify the horses with the best chances of winning each leg.

Let’s take a closer look at each race and identify the leading contenders for Friday’s Pick Six.

Race 4: California-Bred Optional Claiming — One Mile on Dirt

The opening leg is an optional claiming event for California-bred fillies and mares going one mile on the main track.

Santa Anita’s track profile at this distance shows an advantage for horses with early-pressing speed. Front-runners have won 33% of the 12 races in the sample, while pressers have accounted for nearly 42% of the winners. Midpack runners have not won in the sample, and rear runners have won 25%.

The speed and pace projections identify Dorie Miller as the leading contender in the Fire Number category with an 84 and the best projected Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR) at 120.

Dottie Hinson leads the Fast Fig category with a 116, while Kool Mariah has the best projected final-time rating at 117, narrowly ahead of Dorie Miller’s 116.

Dottie Hinson has the best last-race final-time rating at 122, but Dorie Miller owns the best overall, surface, and distance ratings at 134.

Top Contenders

#1 Dottie Hinson is a logical win threat. Her speed ratings have improved in each of her last three sprint starts, climbing from 105 to 111 and then 122.

Breaking from the rail with Juan Hernandez aboard, she should have an opportunity to establish a forward position. Trainer Andy Mathis has performed well with horses stretching out from sprints to routes, winning 10 of 51 starters.

#3 Kool Mariah is one of the top players because she has already demonstrated that she can handle a mile. In her first route attempt at one mile on turf, she went wire-to-wire to graduate with a 110 final-time rating and a 135 pace rating.

Her other mile attempt produced a 117 final-time rating in a clear, distant runner-up finish behind Christel Clean after chasing the pace.

Kool Mariah returned to sprinting in her most recent start, finishing an even fourth in a six-furlong race. Now making her third start following a layoff, she stretches back out to a distance at which she has already shown ability.

Tyler Baze returns aboard for trainer Ian Kruljac. The jockey-trainer combination has recorded two wins, two seconds, and two thirds from 10 starts together.

#5 Dorie Miller deserves consideration, particularly after the projected figures she has posted. However, her overall record raises concerns: she has just two career victories from 38 starts. She frequently finishing in the money (19 underneath finishes).

Race 5: Starter Allowance — One Mile and One-Eighth on Turf

The second leg is a starter allowance event for three-year-olds and up traveling a mile and an eighth on the turf.

Top Contenders

#4 Caisson is a strong contender for the Pick Six.

The horse comes off a starter allowance victory at Del Mar over one mile on turf. His final-time ratings have shown a steady upward progression, moving from 104 to 110, 116, 125, and 135.

That pattern suggests continued improvement. The main concern is his record over Santa Anita turf routes, where he has won just once in 12 attempts.

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Breeders' Cup Classic 2026 Video Preview

Video preview of the 2026 Breeders' Cup Classic. 

The BC Classic will be held at Keeneland on Saturday, October 31, 2026. 

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Santa Anita Turf Pick 3 Video Picks (10-12-26)

Video analysis of the Turf Pick 3 at Santa Anita Park on Monday, October 12, 2026. 

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Santa Anita Park Turf Pick 3 Analysis (10-12-26)

The Monday, October 12 card at Santa Anita features a $3 Turf Pick 3 covering Races 5, 7, and 9. The sequence begins with a $25,000 claiming event for fillies and mares, continues with the $80,000 Swingtime Stakes, and concludes with an optional claiming turf sprint.

In this preview, I’ll use the Complete Digest data to evaluate the top contenders for each race.

Race 5: $25,000 Claiming — Six and One-Half Furlongs on Turf

The first leg of the Turf Pick 3 is a $25,000 claiming race for fillies and mares, restricted to non-winners of two lifetime.

Top Contenders

2. Jenny’s Wine Girl (5-2)

Jenny’s Wine Girl has the strongest projected Digest numbers.

Looking at her last six starts, she recorded ratings of 104, 116, 114, 120, 116, and 122.

That sequence illustrates both her potential and her vulnerability. She is coming off her best effort in the series of races, but her ratings have fluctuated considerably. If she reproduces her latest 122, she could be tough to beat. A regression, however, would leave the door open for her rivals.

Jenny’s Wine Girl is adding blinkers and appears capable of securing a forward position. She fits well on the projected figures and class ratings, making her a leading contender.

6. Watch Over Us (9-5)

Watch Over Us is particularly interesting because she has made only two career starts.

She won her six-furlong maiden claiming debut at Los Alamitos by more than three lengths, earning a 108 final-time rating. She then moved to the turf at Del Mar for a five-furlong sprint and finished third, beaten five lengths, while finishing a length behind Jenny’s Wine Girl. She earned a 113 rating in that race.

That second effort suggests she may be capable of improving with experience.

Trainer Peter Miller is effective with turf sprinters, and jockey Joel Rosario has a strong record riding for the barn. Watch Over Us needs to make up only a small amount of ground on Jenny’s Wine Girl, and further improvement could make her a serious threat.

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Santa Anita Park Pick 6 Video Analysis (10-11-26)

Video analysis of the Pick 6 sequence at Santa Anita Park on Sunday, October 11, 2026. 

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Santa Anita Park Pick 6 Carryover Analysis (10-11-26)

The two-day Pick 6 carryover at Santa Anita Park is just under $100,000 heading into Sunday, October 11. The sequence begins with Race 5 and concludes with Race 10, featuring a mix of turf races, dirt routes, and the California Distaff Handicap on the downhill turf course.

This is not an easy sequence, but there are several horses worth building tickets around, including a few potential value plays.

For this analysis, I’m using the Complete Digest, which provides projected speed figures, final-time ratings, class information, and other handicapping statistics.

Let’s break down each leg of Sunday’s Pick 6.

Race 5: Motet is the Top Pick in the Opening Leg

Race conditions: $30,000 claiming, non-winners of three lifetime, fillies and mares, one mile on turf.

The Pick 6 begins with a claiming turf route. Santa Anita’s track profile at this distance shows that midpack runners have won approximately 34% of races, followed by pressers at 26%, front-runners at just under 24%, and rear runners at approximately 16%.

The speed and pace projections give With Love an advantage in the Fire Number and Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR) categories. Motet has the best projected Fast Fig, while With Love and Eternal Reign share the top final-time rating of 125.

After looking at the numbers and pst performnces, my top choice is No. 9 Motet for trainer Peter Miller.

Motet’s final-time ratings have improved in each of his last three starts. He earned a 107 on May 31, then improved to a 113 when winning a $25,000 claiming race for non-winners of two lifetime at Del Mar.

Miller claimed the horse following that victory and moved him into a $32,000 claiming event at Del Mar. Motet finished a respectable third at one mile on turf (122 final rating), and Hector Berrios returns to ride.

Berrios has a strong record with Miller, winning nine of their 32 starts together. Miller also has encouraging statistics with horses making their second start after a claim.

Motet possesses tactical speed, and his improving numbers suggest he can deliver another quality effort. With those factors in mind, he’s my top choice and a horse I like quite a bit in this opening leg.

With Love and Eternal Reign are logical alternatives. Motet could be a possible single for players looking to keep their tickets affordable, although I prefer some coverage in this race.

Race 6: Last Chance Darcy Gets the Call

Race conditions: $12,500 maiden claiming, California-bred fillies and mares, one mile on dirt.

No. 4 Unusual Craving dominates the projected speed and pace figures, posting the best Fire Number, CPR, Fast Fig, and final-time rating in the field.

The class drop makes Unusual Craving a major contender. However, I’m going with No. 3 Last Chance Darcy as my top choice.

Last Chance Darcy should show speed for trainer Aggie Ordonez, with Armando Ayuso aboard.

Last Chance Darcy earned an 87 final-time rating when dropping to the $12,500 maiden claiming level last time out. That race came at six furlongs, where she dueled for the lead before weakening to finish fourth.

The move to one mile could make a difference. If she can establish a comfortable pace, there’s a chance the horse will carry that speed farther and remain competitive through the stretch.

Unusual Craving is certainly dangerous. The horse is dropping in class and has shown competitive projected figures. The main question is how well Unusual Craving will handle the main track after previously racing on turf.

Both horses belong on Pick 6 tickets.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest