The Runaway Horse

Thursday, September 3, 2026

Bernard Baruch Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (9-3-26)

Video analysis of the $200,000 Bernard Baruch Stakes at Saratoga (9-3-26).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Del Mar Pick 6 Carryover Analysis (8-30-26)

The Del Mar Pick Six sequence on Sunday, August 30 features a two-day carryover of more than $192,000, making the sequence especially attractive for players looking to take a shot at a potentially lucrative payoff.

Below is my race-by-race analysis of the Pick Six, including my top contenders, horses I would use underneath, and my preferred selections for keeping the ticket manageable.

The past-performance information used for this analysis is from Sunday’s Complete Digest.

Race 5 — Maiden Special Weight

California-bred 2-year-old fillies | 6 furlongs | 11 horses

The opening leg of the Pick Six is a competitive maiden special weight event.

According to the Today’s Racing Digest speed and pace forecasts, No. 3 Sauced Up has the best projected numbers across the board, including the Fire Number, CPR, pace, final time, closing fraction and Fast Fig. However, she has already made four starts and has hit the board in each one. I’m not convinced there’s much improvement left to come, particularly with the switch back to the main track.

My top four contenders are:

No. 1 Not So Merry Mary
No. 6 Take Revenge
No. 8 Her Strut
No. 9 Sono Veloce

For a larger Pick Six ticket, all four are worth considering. However, I’m going to narrow the race down to two horses.

Top Choice: No. 8 Her Strut

Her Strut has made two career starts. She encountered trouble in her debut but rallied to finish third, then raced wide and finished fourth in her second start.

I’m willing to give her another chance if she can get a cleaner trip.

Antonio Fresu takes over for trainer George Papaprodromou, and the jockey and trainer have been successful together. If Her Strut gets a better trip this time, I think she has a legitimate chance to graduate.

Second Choice: No. 1 Not So Merry Mary

Not So Merry Mary makes her second career start after debuting in a five-furlong turf race. She didn’t hit the board but took some money and gained valuable experience.

The move to the main track could produce improvement for trainer Tim Yakteen, who has been winning at a solid rate with dirt sprint starters. Kazushi Kimura returns to ride.

Pick Six: 1, 8

Race 6 — $32,000 Claiming

5 furlongs on turf | 11 horses

The second leg is a five-furlong turf sprint.

The recent track profile is interesting. Over the last 27 races at this distance, front runners have won approximately 18.5% of the time, while pressers and mid-pack runners have been winning at much higher rates.

That makes running style an important consideration.

The Today’s Racing Digest projections give No. 9 Code Duello the best numbers, including an 88 Fire Number, 128 CPR, 124 Fast Fig and 134 final time rating.

My primary contenders are:

No. 4 Daniel’s Magic
No. 8 Gregory’s Pride
No. 9 Code Duello

I also think No. 1 Agency and No. 2 Harcyn could hit the board and are worth considering for exotic wagers.

Top Choice: No. 4 Daniel’s Magic

Daniel’s Magic is a presser, which fits the recent profile of this turf sprint distance.

He ran well when returning to turf at five furlongs last time, finishing second in a $25,000 claiming event. He also gets a better post position this time, moving from post eight in a nine-horse field to post four.

Trainer Craig Dollase has a solid win percentage with turf sprinters, and Kazushi Kimura takes the mount.

The tactical speed and middle post should allow Daniel’s Magic to sit behind the leaders and potentially get first run on the deeper closers.

Second Choice: No. 9 Code Duello

Code Duello owns the strongest projected numbers in the race and comes into the event in good form.

He’s capable of either setting the pace or tracking it, which gives him some versatility. If he reproduces his recent form, he should be right there.

Pick Six: 4, 9

Saturday, August 29, 2026

Breeders' Cup Classic Future Wager Pool 1 Video

In this video, I take a look at Pool 1 of the Breeders' Cup Classic Future Wager. This pool runs from Friday, August 28, 2026 thru Sunday, August 30, 2026 at 6 PM ET.

The Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Classic will be held at Keeneland on 10-31-26, and it is for 3-year-olds and up traveling 1 1/4 miles on the main track.

BC Classic Future Wager Pool 1: 1 - Antiquarian (RETIRED), 2 - Baby Vino (50-1), 3 - Baeza (15-1), 4 - Commandment (40-1), 5 - Emerging Market (90-1), 6 - Forever Young (6-1), 7 - Further Ado (70-1), 8 - Golden Tempo (12-1), 9 - Hit Show (80-1), 10 - Iron Honor (90-1), 11 - Knightsbridge (6-1), 12 - Leading Change (60-1), 13 - Magnitude (10-1), 14 - Napoleon Solo (50-1), 15 - Nitrogen (20-1), 16 - Phileas Fogg (25-1), 17 - Renegade (12-1), 18 - Sea Strike (30-1), 19 - Silent Tactic (60-1), 20 - Skippylongstocking (70-1), 21 - Sovereignty (4-1), 22 - Ted Noffey (50-1), 23 - The Puma (40-1), 24 - All Other Starters (8-1).

Friday, August 28, 2026

Travers Stakes Final Analysis (8-29-26)

The 2026 Travers Stakes takes center stage at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, August 29. The Grade 1 event carries a $1.25 million purse and will send three-year-olds 1¼ miles around the main track, with a scheduled post time of 6:35 p.m. ET.

I have closely followed this crop through the Road to the Kentucky Derby series, covering 36 qualifying races. My top choices produced 13 wins, four seconds and seven thirds, and I have correctly tabbed 8 top choice winners in sophomore stakes races since the Triple Crown concluded in June.

Here is my look at the Travers field featuring Today’s Racing Digest race sheets.

2026 Travers Stakes Field

1. Emerging Market (15-1)

Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Ricardo Santana Jr., Emerging Market enters the Travers off a second-place finish in a Saratoga optional claiming race against older horses.

He rallied wide from last in that July 25 race, overcoming a slow pace and an outside post to finish a clear second as the beaten favorite.

His Today’s Racing Digest numbers improved in that race, including a 121 Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR) and a 132 final-time rating. I believe that race served as a useful prep, and he should be able to save ground behind the speed from the inside post this time.

The question is whether he can return to his best form. I see him primarily as an exotic-wager possibility.

2. Leading Change (12-1)

Leading Change is one of the most intriguing horses in the field because the Travers will be only his third lifetime start.

Brad Cox trains the colt, with Manny Franco taking over in the saddle. He won his debut at seven furlongs before stepping directly into Grade 3 company in the Indiana Derby.

He was heavily bet at 1-2 in that race and fought hard to win by a neck as my top choice.

His second-start numbers included a 100 Fire Number, a 149 final-time rating and a 124 CPR. Those figures indicate significant talent, but he will have to take another step forward while stretching to 1¼ miles against considerably more experienced horses.

I like his tactical speed and inside post but his lack of experience is the major question.

3. Napoleon Solo (8-1)

Napoleon Solo, trained by Chad Summers and ridden by John Velasquez, could be the horse most likely to dictate the pace.

Velasquez has worked the horse in the mornings and takes over as his rider. Napoleon Solo is already a Grade 1 winner, having captured the Preakness Stakes earlier in the year after winning the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes as a two-year-old.

He was second in the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes last time out.

The major concern is the distance. He has gone 1 3/16 miles, but the Travers will require another sixteenth of a mile. I expect him to be aggressive early and try to establish the lead.

If he can clear the field and get a breather on the front end, he could prove difficult to catch. If he faces pressure, however, the 1¼-mile distance could expose a stamina limitation.

Waya Stakes 2026 Analysis (8-28-26)

Happy Travers Week! The Waya Stakes is the eighth race on Friday, August 28, at Saratoga Race Course. The Grade 3 event carries a $225,000 purse and is scheduled to be run at 1 3/8 miles on the turf, with a post time of 5:07 p.m. ET.

The race sheets information discussed below is provided by Today’s Racing Digest. If you’re looking for Friday’s Saratoga past performances, you can find them on the Digest Handicapping Products Page.

The Field

1. Evershed (5-1)

Evershed enters her second start off a lengthy layoff for trainer Arnaud Delacour, with Flavien Prat picking up the mount.

The four-year-old filly has seven career starts, with two wins, two seconds and a third. Her most notable Saratoga effort came in last year’s Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks, where she finished second at 1 3/16 miles on turf.

She returned from her layoff on July 19, finishing third after a wide-closing trip at 1 1/16 miles. That race produced a 125 final-time rating, and she figures to improve with a race under her belt.

Her 147 final-time rating in the Saratoga Oaks remains the best number of her career, which makes Saratoga and the longer distance particularly interesting.

2. Snipsnippitysnip (8-1)

Brendan Walsh trains Snipsnippitysnip, with Edgar Zayas named to ride.

She rallied to finish third in a 1 3/8-mile optional claiming race at Saratoga on July 19, earning a 126 final-time rating. She had previously won at the same distance with a 117 rating.

She’ll need to improve her speed figure to contend with the best of this group, but her proven ability at the distance makes her worth considering underneath.

3. Whitethorn (10-1)

Whitethorn is trained by Todd Pletcher and will have Luis Saez aboard.

The daughter of Not This Time has finished in the top three in all seven of her starts, although all seven came in maiden company. She finally broke through last time out, winning by more than four lengths at this 1 3/8-mile distance on July 26.

Blinkers were added for that race, and the equipment change appeared to help. She rallied from well off the pace while earning a 125 final-time rating.

The question is whether she can take another step forward against stakes company. She has plenty of upside, and the added distance appears to suit her.

Monday, August 24, 2026

Travers Stakes 2026 Video Analysis

Video analysis of the Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga (8-29-26).