San Felipe Stakes 2026 Analysis (3-7-26)

The Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita Park is one of the most important early-season prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Run at one mile and a sixteenth for three-year-olds, the race offers valuable Derby qualifying points and frequently produces contenders for the first Saturday in May.

This year’s edition features a compact but intriguing field of seven runners with several promising colts stepping forward in class. Using data from the Complete Digest, I’m breaking down the field, analyzing the pace setup, and identifying the runners I believe offer the best betting value.

Race Overview

Race	Track	Date	Distance	Purse
San Felipe Stakes	Santa Anita Park	March 7, 2026	1 1/16 Miles	$200,000

This Derby points prep sits on a major stakes program at Santa Anita, headlined by Big Cap Day. The San Felipe has historically been a key stepping stone toward races like the Santa Anita Derby and ultimately the Kentucky Derby.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

Flashy Fritz

This longshot exits a $25,000 claiming race and appears overmatched against graded stakes company. While he may contribute to the early pace from the rail, his recent figures suggest he’ll struggle to stay competitive late.

Start the Ride

He improved significantly in his second start when stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth and winning a California-bred stakes. The progression is encouraging, but stepping into open graded stakes company represents a significant class test.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Tampa Bay Derby Video Picks (3-7-26)

Tampa Bay Derby video analysis at Tampa Bay Downs (3-7-26). This is a Kentucky Derby 2026 points race. Road to Kentucky Derby 2026 video record (25 10-4-3).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Santa Anita Park Pick 6 Carryover Analysis (3-6-26)

A $45,602 Pick 6 carryover is on the table at Santa Anita for Friday, March 6, and that creates a great opportunity to take a shot with a compact ticket. For this sequence I’m sticking with the same philosophy I’ve used in recent carryover videos — building a disciplined $16 ticket that still gives coverage in the most competitive legs.

For this analysis I’m using the data from the Complete Digest, which provides projected figures and pace analysis from the Today’s Racing Digest handicapping team.

The sequence runs from Race 4 through Race 9, so let’s walk through each leg and identify the best betting approach.

Race 4 — Allowance Optional Claiming

6 furlongs (Dirt) – California-bred 3-year-olds

Six furlongs at Santa Anita tends to favor early speed.

Race Breakdown

Tommy Norris looks like the likely pacesetter. His maiden win last time came at this same six-furlong trip, where he posted a strong 125 pace rating and 113 final time rating while controlling the tempo.

Southern Melody has already defeated Tommy Norris, finishing just under a length ahead in a maiden race last fall. After that effort he tried stakes company and now returns off the layoff with the rider who guided him to victory.

Fionella is interesting dropping out of several stakes attempts and cutting back in distance, but he’ll need to show he can keep up with the early pace.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Kentucky Derby 2026 Video Update (3-2-26)

In this Kentucky Derby 2026 video, I share my Exceptional 11 Derby contenders (2-24-26). 

I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my channel. Road to Derby video record (25 10-4-3).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Kentucky Derby 2026 Report (3-2-26)

There were three road to Kentucky Derby prep races last week and Commandment edged Chief Wallabee in Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 28, and that was the fastest of the three points races. In this report, I will recap the Gotham, Fountain of Youth, and Rebel Stakes, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.

I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 25 points races, my top choices have 10 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 3 show finishes. The road to the Derby continues with the Tampa Bay Derby on March 7 and the field will be announced on March 4. The San Felipe Stakes on March 7 at Santa Anita Park has a field of seven and Brant is the likely favorite.

San Felipe field (race 8): 1 – Flashy Fritz, 2 – Start the Ride, 3 – Secured Freedom, 4 – Brant, 5 – Potente, 6 – So Happy, 7 – Robusta.

Plutarch, ranked eleventh on my Kentucky Derby list last week, exited the Robert Lewis with body soreness and is off the Derby trail. He is expected to remain in light training.

Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps

Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct (2-28-26): Race favorite Iron Honor and Crown the Buckeye mixed it up on the front end from the start and it was a two-horse race throughout. Iron Honor ($3.88), making just his second career start and first since December, got the better of his more experienced rival by a length (90 BSF). Crown the Buckeye tried hard throughout and ended up 6 1/2 lengths in front of closing show finisher Right to Party. Exhibition Only (4th), Balboa (5th), Hammond (6th), Dirty Rich (7th), and Fourth and One (8th) also ran. Creole Chrome scratched. Manny Franco rode the winner for Chad Brown and he might run next in the Wood Memorial. Fractions: 23.09, 46.30, 1:11.45, 1:24.25, 1:37.94. 

Read more at The Runaway Horse

Kentucky Oaks 2026 Video Update (3-1-26)

In this Kentucky Oaks 2026 video, I share my updated Fabulous 5 Oaks contenders (3-1-26).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Kentucky Oaks 2026 Report (3-1-26)

There were three Kentucky Oaks 2026 prep races this week and second time starter She Be Smooth announced her presence in an emphatic last-to-first victory in the Grade 2 Davona Dale at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 28. In this report, I will recap the Busher, Davona Dale, and Honeybee, update the points standings, and share my top five Oaks fillies.

I cover all of the Kentucky Oaks points race on my Runaway Horse YouTube channel, and through the first 23 points races, my top choices have 11 wins, 3 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes. The next Kentucky Oaks points race is the Santa Ysabel at Santa Anita Park on Sunday, March 8.

Kentucky Oaks 2026 Points Race Recaps

Busher Stakes at Aqueduct (2-28-26): The track was listed as good and Current Yield and Interstatelovesong dueled on the lead, and race favorite Paradise chased from third. Interstatelovesong took the lead and Paradise ($4.72) immediately pounced on the new leader and edged clear to win by 3 3/4 lengths (78 BSF). Nycon stalked from fourth and got past Interstatelovesong by a neck for the place. Current Yield weakened to fourth and Blazing Brat trailed throughout. Manny Franco rode the winner for Brad Cox. Fractions: 23.38, 46.75, 1:11.56, 1:24.64, 1:38.53. 

Read more at The Runaway Horse