In this Kentucky Derby 2026 video, I share my Exceptional 11 Derby contenders (4-6-26).
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my channel. Road to Derby video record (36 13-4-6).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
The Blue Grass, Santa Anita Derby, and Wood Memorial were the latest road to Kentucky Derby 2026 prep races and Further Ado, So Happy, and Albus punched their tickets to Louisville. In this report, I will recap the aforementioned three Derby preps, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.
I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 36 points races, my top choices have 13 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 6 show finishes. The road to the Derby series concludes with the Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland on April 11.
Lexington field (race 10): 1 – Corona de Oro, 2 – Exhibition Only, 3 – Decisive Win, 4 – Enforced Agenda, 5 – Mister T, 6 – Ramblin, 7 – The Hell We Did, 8 – Trendsetter, 9 – Ezum, 10 – Confessional, 11 – I Did I Did
Kentucky Derby 2026 Points Race Recaps
Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland (9f): Further Ado ($3.70) made short work of this crew as the strong favorite. He stalked while out in the clear, took over, and romped by 11 lengths (106 BSF). Ottinho rallied for the place and Talkin stalked the pace and was best of the rest in third. Creole Chrome (4th), Great White (5th), Reagan’s Honor (6th), and Moonstrocity (7th) also ran. Class President and Ocelli scratched. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode the winner for Brad Cox. Fractions: 23.60, 47.71, 1:11.80, 1:36.63, 1:49.58.
Read more at The Runaway Horse
In this Kentucky Oaks 2026 video, I share my updated Fabulous 5 Oaks contenders (4-5-26).
I covered all of the Kentucky Oaks preps on my Runaway Horse YouTube channel, and my top choices had 14 wins, 7 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes (31 races). My top choices showed a flat bet profit in this series.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
The final three Kentucky Oaks prep races are in the books and Percy’s Bar, Meaning, and Always a Runner punched their tickets to Louisville. In this report, I will recap the Ashland, SA Oaks, and Gazelle, update the points standings, and share my top five Oaks fillies.
I covered all of the Kentucky Oaks preps on my Runaway Horse YouTube channel, and my top choices had 14 wins, 7 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes (31 races). My top choices showed a flat bet profit in this series.
Kentucky Oaks 2026 Points Race Recaps
Grade 1 Ashland at Keeneland (8.5f): The track was listed as good. Zany was the strong favorite and Percy’s Bar was making her first start since finishing third in the G1 BC Juvenile Fillies last fall. It came down to those two and Percy’s Bar ($7.12) never left the rail. She saved all the ground tracking French Friction, and she scooted up the rail in the stretch and won by 2 1/4 lengths (87 BSF). Zany raced in traffic early, stalked outside, changed leads late, and was clearly second best. Star Actress rallied from last of 6 from the outside post to finish a clear third. French Friction weakened to fourth and Omaha Bay and Hollybygolly also ran. Luan Machado rode the winner for Ben Colebrook. Fractions: 24.70, 50.37, 1:15.24, 1:39.47, 1:45.72.
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The Road to the Kentucky Derby rolls through Santa Anita Park with the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, a $500,000 event for three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. This is one of the most important West Coast prep races, and I’ve been tracking all the Derby points races closely—producing 13 winners, along with multiple exacta and trifecta finishes along the way.
Using data from the Complete Digest, I’m breaking down this field from a pace, speed, and class perspective before giving you my contenders.
| Horse | Fire # | CPR | Fast Fig | Final Time Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherokee Nation | 100 | 134 | 125 | 147 |
| Potente | 96 | 137 | 128 | 143 |
| Robusta | 100 | 133 | 128 | 143 |
| So Happy | 94 | 123 | 125 | 135 |
Fire Number highlights early and sustained speed, and Cherokee Nation and Robusta both top the field there. Meanwhile, Potente leads in CPR, signaling the most complete performance profile.
The Final Time Rating shows Cherokee Nation clearly on top with a 147—making him the fastest horse in the field based on recent performance.
Cherokee Nation is the wildcard. He struggled in prior stakes attempts but exploded last time out with a 10-length maiden win, earning elite pace and speed figures. That effort suggests major upside.
Potente is undefeated and already a graded stakes winner, while Robusta proved competitive at this level in the San Felipe.
Intrepido brings strong back class, including a Grade 1 win at two, and could improve second off the layoff after skipping the San Felipe to target this race.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
I’m back with my latest Road to the Kentucky Derby breakdown, and this time I’m diving into the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. This $1.25 million Derby prep is one of the final and most important stepping stones on the trail, with three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on the main track.
Let’s break down the field, evaluate the numbers, and identify where the betting value lies.
This is a competitive group with a mix of improving runners, established stakes performers, and a few question marks. Several entrants are stretching their limits in terms of class or distance, while others appear poised to peak at the right time.
From a pace standpoint, there’s a strong possibility of a forwardly placed runner controlling things early—something I always pay close attention to at Keeneland.
Using the Digest past performances, I focused heavily on Final Time Ratings and pace progression to evaluate each contender.
Horses showing both pace and final time improvement are typically the most dangerous in Derby preps, and that’s exactly what we see from the top contenders here.
This is the horse I keep coming back to. His numbers are improving across the board, and he’s shown he can wire fields going two turns. His pace figures (114 → 140 → 170) suggest he can control the tempo.
If Keeneland is playing even slightly speed-favoring, he becomes extremely dangerous.
Bettor’s Edge: A lone-speed scenario at Keeneland is often a winning formula—especially in route races.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
This field brings together a mix of proven stakes runners, improving maidens, and pace-heavy types—setting up a race where trip and race shape will be critical.
There’s no shortage of early speed signed on here:
With multiple speed types, I expect an honest—possibly contested—pace. That could set things up for a stalker or a horse capable of adapting mid-race.
When multiple front-runners with strong pace ratings line up, I look for horses with tactical versatility—those who can sit just off the speed and finish.
Buetane checks the most boxes for me in this field. His body of work stacks up:
He’s shown he can compete at this level and has the versatility to adapt to pace scenarios. At 8-1 morning line, he offers strong value.
My Betting Takeaway: The combination of class, consistency, and trip excuses makes him a top play at a fair price.
