Important Scratch Changes the Pace Scenario
Magnitude has scratched out of the Breeders’ Cup Classic after suffering an injury. He has been retired to Ashford Stud.
This is a significant development because Magnitude was one of the primary speed horses in the original field. His absence leaves fewer confirmed pace players and changes how I view the race from a tactical standpoint.
Knightsbridge and Napoleon Solo now look like the two most likely horses to establish the early pace. Forever Young should be able to track them from a comfortable position, while Sovereignty, Golden Tempo, and The Puma will look to make their moves later.
Horse-by-Horse Breeders’ Cup Classic Analysis
1. T O Password (30-1)
T O Password is the longest price on the morning line and enters this race after finishing third, beaten two lengths, in the Grade 3 Elm Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth in Japan in August.
He has won once in three attempts at a mile and a quarter. He also has experience in the United States, having competed in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
He was 48-1 in that 20-horse Kentucky Derby, drew post nine, broke slowly, encountered trouble, and finished fifth, beaten six and a half lengths. Forever Young finished a close third that afternoon.
His overseas races do not have corresponding numbers in the last six Digest past-performance lines. The available Kentucky Derby figures were a Fire Number of 83, CPR of 115, Fast Fig of 123, and Final Time Rating of 125.
Those figures are not competitive with the leading horses in this field. He has won at the distance, but this is a substantial class test.
2. Sovereignty (5-2)
Sovereignty is a live contender from off the pace for trainer Bill Mott, with Junior Alvarado returning aboard.
He is a perfect three-for-three at a mile and a quarter, with Grade 1 victories in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, and Travers Stakes last year.
His first two starts this season were below expectations. He finished second in the Oaklawn Handicap and a well-beaten third in the Stephen Foster. However, he bounced back impressively in the Whitney Stakes, rallying from off the pace to win by more than four lengths.
He was scheduled to run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but was sidelined by a foot abscess. His first few workouts after returning were slow, although he delivered a very good workout at Keeneland on October 25.
The Digest figures show how talented he can be. He earned final-time ratings of 143 and 147 before posting a huge 168 in the Travers last year. His Fire Number in that Travers was 111.
He subsequently recorded a 146 and then a 131 in his first two starts this season. The lower number came in the sloppy Stephen Foster. He then rebounded in the Whitney with a 156 Final Time Rating, his best number since that Travers performance.
There are some things to overcome. He missed his intended prep race, and he had the foot issue. His recent workout was encouraging, and the bar shoe is scheduled to be removed so he can race without it.
The other concern is pace. Magnitude’s scratch takes away some of the speed that would have helped Sovereignty’s closing style.
Still, he’s a mile-and-a-quarter specialist with multiple Grade 1 victories, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won this race.
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