Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Video Picks (10-10-26)

Video analysis of the Grade 1, $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland on Saturday, October 10, 2026. 

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Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Analysis (10-10-26)

The Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is the featured race at Keeneland on Saturday, October 10, with a large field of 11 three-year-old fillies set to compete for a $750,000 purse. The race will be contested at 1 1/8 miles on the turf course, with a scheduled post time of 5:16 p.m. Eastern.

There is a chance of rain on Saturday, so turf conditions could be less than firm.

Let’s take a look at the field, examine the Digest numbers, and identify the top contenders.

Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Field Overview

1. Haute Diva (30-1)

Haute Diva has made 11 career starts, recording three wins and four runner-up finishes. She won an all-weather stakes race at Gulfstream Park in June before stepping up to face older fillies and mares in the Grade 2 Beverly D. Stakes.

She was 72-1 in that race and was pinched at the start. After the troubled beginning, she passed a few runners to finish sixth, beaten less than five lengths in a nine-horse field.

She earned a 134 final-time rating when winning the Martha Washington Stakes and a 131 in the Beverly D. Her Fire numbers, which measure speed throughout a race, were 94 and 86 in her last two starts.

She has shown some ability, but she’ll need to improve considerably to compete with this field. From the inside post, she could try to save ground and make a late run.

2. Luster (5-2)

Luster is the horse to beat after winning her last three stakes starts. Her recent victories include the Grade 3 Selene Stakes, the Woodbine Oaks, and the King’s Plate, where she defeated male rivals by more than seven lengths.

John Velazquez returns to the saddle. He has ridden Luster three times, and she has won all three races with him aboard.

Her recent numbers are especially impressive. Her last four Fire numbers were 98, 94, 94, and 101. Her corresponding final-time ratings were 146, 144, 132, and 153, with that top figure coming in her dominant King’s Plate victory.

Luster has also won both of her turf starts, including a victory at Keeneland, and she has handled both firm and yielding turf.

Her tactical speed should allow Velazquez to position her comfortably near the lead without using too much energy early. She has also demonstrated that she can work out a good trip from an inside post.

Luster has repeatedly defeated quality opponents, including horses who subsequently won their next starts. Her connections targeted this Grade 1 event rather than continuing through the Canadian Triple Crown series, giving her a fresh objective after her impressive summer campaign.

With strong recent figures, proven turf ability, and a favorable running style, Luster is a top win contender.

3. Tam Tam (4-1)

Tam Tam has been consistent, with four wins, two seconds, and two thirds from nine starts. She has also handled the 1 1/8-mile distance, recording a win and a third-place finish in two attempts.

She won the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks last time out after finishing first in the previous stakes race, the Tepin Stakes.

In the Del Mar Oaks, Tam Tam worked out an ideal trip by tracking the pace in second, taking over, and holding off the late runners. Her final-time ratings improved from a 146 in the Tepin to a 149 in the Del Mar Oaks.

Her last two Fire numbers were 100 and 97, indicating that she has maintained a strong level of speed throughout her recent races.

Tam Tam has tactical speed and an inside post, which should help her secure a favorable position. She is clearly in excellent form, although she’ll need to reproduce her recent performances against a strong field.

4. Faithful Departed (7-2)

Faithful Departed has finished in the top two in multiple recent graded stakes, including a victory in the Grade 3 Regret and runner-up finishes in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks.

Her final-time ratings have improved in her last three starts, going from 135 to 132 and then 138 in the Belmont Oaks.

She was scheduled to compete in the Dueling Grounds Oaks but had to miss that race after spiking a temperature. Instead, her connections have given her additional time to prepare for this race, and she has recorded some encouraging workouts.

Faithful Departed has shown that she can finish strongly from off the pace. In the Belmont Oaks, she rallied from 10th to finish second, although that trip left her with considerable ground to make up.

Her best effort may come if Jose Ortiz can keep her within striking range, perhaps five lengths behind the leaders, while saving ground around the turns.

She has the class and finishing kick to win this race.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest 

Hill Prince Stakes 2026 Handicapping Article (10-10-26)

The Grade 3 Hill Prince Stakes at Belmont Park is the featured race for three-year-olds on Saturday, October 10. The $200,000 event will be contested at 1 3/16 miles on the inner turf course, with the turf rail set at 24 feet. The scheduled post time is 5:02 p.m. Eastern.

The race has attracted a competitive field of nine, including Grade 2 Nashville Derby hero Caroline St. Beat and Grade 3 Old Dominion Derby winner Lennox the Grey. Here is a closer look at the field.

Hill Prince Stakes Field

1. Print

Ricardo Santana Jr. rides Print, who comes off a victory in an optional claiming race at 1 1/16 miles on the Saratoga turf. Santana guided him to that win from off the pace.

One concern is that Print received Lasix in that race but will race without it here. His recent Today’s Racing Digest numbers are solid, including final-time ratings of 140 and 141 and Fire Numbers of 97 in his last two starts.

However, he has lost all five of his previous starts without Lasix, making the medication change a concern. He also figures to be one of the horses trying to rally from off the pace, which can make him dependent on the race shape.

2. Protect and Defend

Protect and Defend enters off a three-length maiden victory at this same 1 3/16-mile distance at Saratoga. He handled yielding turf that day after previously running well at the distance on firm ground.

Trainer Shug McGaughey has a strong record at Belmont, winning four of seven starts at the track.

The major questions are class and the loss of Lasix. He is stepping up from the maiden ranks to face stakes competition, but his improving form and proven ability at the distance make him a tad interesting.

3. Heeere’s Johnny

Heeere’s Johnny is 1-for-10 lifetime and has finished second four times. His lone victory came in the Saranac Stakes at Saratoga at 1 1/16 miles.

He subsequently finished sixth in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby and seventh in the Grade 3 Old Dominion Derby at Colonial Downs. His Digest final-time rating peaked at 137 before dropping to 126 in his most recent start.

Heeere’s Johnny needs to rebound from latest efforts to become a serious threat.

4. Lennox the Grey

Lennox the Grey is one of two graded stakes winners in this field, along with Caroline St. Beat.

Arnold Delacour trains this son of Liam’s Map, and Antonio Fresu gets aboard for the first time.

Lennox the Grey has won three of his last five starts, with a runner-up finish, and enters off a narrow victory in the Grade 3 Old Dominion Derby at Colonial Downs at 1 1/8 miles.

That race produced excellent Digest numbers. He earned a career-best 141 final-time rating, a 148 CPR, and an 88 Fire Number.

The race featured a slow early pace and a fast finish, and Lennox the Grey showed he could handle that type of race. Prior to his last outing, he won after sitting well off a fast pace, demonstrating that he can adapt to different race shapes.

The additional distance is a question, but his recent form, improving numbers, pedigree and connections make him particularly appealing.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Bricks and Mortar Stakes Video Picks (10-10-26)

Video analysis of the $175,000 Bricks and Mortar Stakes at Belmont Park on Saturday, October 10, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Sycamore Stakes Handicapping Article (10-9-26)

The Grade 2 Sycamore Stakes at Keeneland is the first stakes race of the second week of the fall meet. The $400,000 event is scheduled for Friday, October 9, and will be contested at 1½ miles on the turf for three-year-olds and up.

The marathon turf distance should play an important role in the handicapping, particularly because several horses in the field have proven experience at 1½ miles or longer.

Here is a horse-by-horse look at the field.

#1 Goldeneye (30-1)

Goldeneye figures to be one of the primary pace factors from the inside post.

He showed his early speed in the Bowling Green Gold Cup at Kentucky Downs, opening up by nine lengths before weakening to finish fourth, beaten less than three lengths. He has won twice at 1½ miles, so the distance itself isn’t necessarily the issue.

However, his recent final-time ratings don’t stack up particularly well against this field. His best recent figures include a 104 and a 123, which leave him needing a significant improvement.

He also struggled badly in last year’s Sycamore, finishing last and beaten by 50 lengths after failing to make the lead.

#2 Just a Touch (5-2)

Morning line favorite Just a Touch is one of the most intriguing horses in the field.

He has won three of his last four starts, including two victories at 1½ miles—the Cape Henlopen Stakes at Delaware Park and the Colonial Cup at Colonial Downs.

His recent numbers are excellent. He has recorded final-time ratings of 147, 147 and 149 in his three strongest recent turf efforts, while his pace ratings are also competitive.

He is 1-for-1 at Keeneland and has already won with Irad Ortiz aboard.

The major question is his graded-stakes record. He is 0-for-8 in graded stakes, although much of that experience came on dirt. The move to turf has revitalized his career.

#3 Mercante (20-1)

Mercante had an uncomfortable start and finished last in the Grade 1 Turf Mile at Keeneland on Oct. 3.

Prior to that, he pressed the pace from post 11 in a turf route stakes race at Ellis Park and finished sixth, beaten a little more than three lengths. His final-time rating of 138 wasn’t fast enough, although he did record a much better 150 two starts earlier.

The biggest concern is the 1½-mile distance. He is winless in two starts at Keeneland and is 0-for-1 at this distance.

#4 Navy Seal (6-1)

Navy Seal has been competing in extremely long turf races recently, including the Belmont Gold Cup at two miles and the Bowling Green Gold Cup at 2 1/16 miles. He finished second in the Belmont Gold Cup and was fifth in the Bowling Green, beaten less than four lengths.

The Bowling Green effort can be forgiven to an extent because the distance appeared to work against him. Cutting back to 1½ miles should allow him to produce a stronger finish.

He has already won at this distance and has two solid efforts at 1½ miles. His third-place finish in the Grade 2 Elkhorn at Keeneland is particularly interesting because the race favored closers and Navy Seal was involved in the pace.

He also enters this race with back-to-back bullet workouts at Keeneland, including a turf bullet.

#5 Echo Lane (12-1)

Echo Lane hasn’t raced at Keeneland, but he has finished third in both of his starts at 1½ miles.

His last two races came at 1 3/8 miles, including the Grade 2 United Nations. He finished fourth in both races.

His recent final-time ratings have declined, however. He posted a 158 and 140 in his two starts at 1½ miles, followed by only a 128 and 122 in his last two races.

The distance is not a dealbreaker, but his current form is a bit of a concern.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Sycamore Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (10-9-26)

Video analysis of the Grade 2, $400,000 Sycamore Stakes at Keeneland on Friday, October 9, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Keeneland Fall Meet Stakes Picks (10-4-26)

Keeneland’s Sunday card features three stakes races that offer very different handicapping challenges. The Grade 3 Indian Summer Stakes brings together a talented group of 2-year-old turf sprinters, the Grade 1 Spinster Stakes features a short but accomplished field of fillies and mares, and the Grade 2 Bourbon Stakes gives another group of 2-year-olds a chance to establish themselves over a route of ground on turf.

Using the speed, pace, class and final-time ratings from Today’s Racing Digest, here are my top selections and horses to use underneath for all three stakes.

Race 8 — Grade 3 Indian Summer Stakes

$350,000 • 5½ Furlongs • Turf • 2-Year-Olds

The Indian Summer has a fairly balanced distance profile at Keeneland. Front runners, pressers and midpack runners have each won approximately 29% of the races at 5½ furlongs, while horses coming from far back have won less than 12%.

There are several horses capable of showing speed, including overseas shipper Adonius (IRE), Fanshell Beach, Cactus Closer, Ciarlatano, Wood Island and Ruiva. With relatively little confirmed closing speed in the field, a horse capable of securing position without getting caught up in a contested pace might have an advantage. A horse shaking loose early could also be dangerous.

Value Play: #7 Wood Island (7-2)

Wood Island is 2-for-2 in his career. He won his debut at Saratoga going 5½ furlongs on dirt, then came right back and won a stakes race at 5½ furlongs on turf.

His figures also took a major jump between those two races. His final-time rating improved from 119 to 138, while his pace rating increased from 113 to 140.

That’s the kind of progression I want to see from a lightly raced 2-year-old.

George Weaver has a 17% win rate with turf sprinters, and Flavien Prat returns to ride. Prat already knows the horse after riding him in his most recent victory.

Race Favorite: #8 Ruiva (7-5)

Ruiva deserves plenty of respect.

She has run well in all three starts, including a seven-length debut victory at Churchill Downs and a third-place finish in a Group 2 turf sprint stakes race at Ascot (27-horse field).

She then finished second in the Grade 3 Sorrento Stakes at Del Mar, where she battled throughout and finished well clear of the remainder of the field.

Trainer Wesley Ward has plenty of experience with these types of 2-year-old turf horses, and the addition of Irad Ortiz Jr. makes Ruiva particularly dangerous.

The problem is the price.

At 7-5, you’re being asked to take a very short price on a horse who has already lost her last two starts.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest