Ellis Park Derby + West Virginia Derby Video Analysis (8-9-26)

Video analysis of the Ellis Park Derby and West Virginia Derby (8-9-26). 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Troy Stakes 2026 Analysis at Saratoga (8-9-26)

The Troy Stakes is the final stakes race of the weekend at Saratoga on Sunday, August 9. The Grade 2 event carries a $300,000 purse and is scheduled for three-year-olds and up going 5½ furlongs on the turf. Post time is approximately 5:09 p.m. Eastern.

Let’s take a look at the field and the Digest speed and pace projections.

Troy Stakes Field

1. Dancing Buck (15-1)

Jose Ortiz picks up the mount on Dancing Buck, who is making his second start of the year.

He won a stakes race at Aqueduct last November going six furlongs on turf, but his return this year was disappointing. He finished sixth, beaten 11 lengths, in the Ashley T. Cole at six furlongs on the Aqueduct turf.

He’ll need a significant improvement to compete with this group.

2. Twenty Six Black (5-2)

Twenty Six Black is the morning-line favorite.

He has won three times at Saratoga and also owns three victories at today’s 5½-furlong distance. He enters off an impressive victory in the Harvey Pack Stakes at Saratoga, where he rallied strongly from off the pace to win by more than two lengths.

He also finished second in last year’s Troy Stakes at 10-1 odds, closing from off the pace. His current form appears even stronger, making him a major threat to take the Grade 2 event this year.

3. Doncho (3-1)

Doncho comes into the Troy Stakes in good form for trainer Michelle Lovell.

He has won seven of 13 career starts and is four-for-seven at the distance. He also enters with back-to-back stakes victories, including wins at five furlongs on the turf at Churchill Downs and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

His versatility could be important. He has shown that he doesn’t necessarily need the lead and could potentially sit just behind the early speed.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Whitney Stakes 2026 Analysis (8-8-26)

The Grade 1 Whitney Stakes is the marquee event on Saturday at Saratoga, offering a $1 million purse for a talented field of older horses. Contested at 1 1/8 miles, the Whitney is one of the premier races of the summer and often serves as a stepping stone toward the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

This year’s edition features accomplished Grade 1 winners, an improving filly taking on the boys, and several horses looking to rebound from recent defeats. Here’s a look at the leading contenders and how the race could unfold.

Pace Scenario

The pace should revolve around Magnitude, who breaks from the rail and has shown exceptional early speed in his recent victories. After wiring the Dubai World Cup, he returned to the United States and captured the Grade 1 Stephen Foster in front-running fashion over a sloppy track.

If Magnitude is allowed to dictate comfortable fractions again, he’ll be difficult to reel in.

Nitrogen is naturally tactical and figures to be prominent early, although she doesn’t require the lead to run her best race. Forged Steel could also add some pace pressure if he starts, preventing Magnitude from getting an uncontested trip.

Behind the leaders, horses like Antiquarian, White Abarrio, Sovereignty, and Baza should be positioned to make their moves turning for home.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

#1 Magnitude (9-5)

The morning-line favorite enters the Whitney in outstanding form.

He has won three of his four starts at the distance and continues to post strong speed figures while carrying his speed throughout the race. Consecutive bullet workouts at Saratoga suggest he’s maintained his excellent condition since winning the Stephen Foster.

From the rail, expect Jose Ortiz to send him immediately. If he controls the pace, he’ll be the horse everyone has to catch.

#2 Nitrogen (4-1)

Nitrogen has done little wrong throughout her career, finishing in the top three in every start while compiling an impressive Saratoga record.

Her dominant Grade 1 Ogden Phipps victory was visually impressive, but she enjoyed a perfect front-running trip against fillies. Facing older males presents a much tougher assignment, and duplicating that career-best effort may prove difficult if she’s forced to chase Magnitude early.

Still, her consistency makes her impossible to dismiss.

#3 Antiquarian (10-1)

Todd Pletcher’s barn has begun heating up again, and Antiquarian could offer value at generous odds.

He owns a Grade 1 victory at Saratoga and has previously earned speed figures that fit well with this field. His disappointing effort in the Suburban came after a troubled start, making it easier to forgive.

With a cleaner break, he projects to secure a stalking trip and could outrun his odds.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Test Stakes 2026 Analysis (8-8-26)

The Test Stakes is one of four Grade 1 races at Saratoga on Saturday, August 8. It goes as Race 9, featuring a $500,000 purse for three-year-old fillies. The field will travel seven furlongs over the main track, with post time scheduled for 4:36 p.m. ET.

Below is my race breakdown and a look at the leading contenders.

Race Overview

The Test Stakes annually attracts some of the best sophomore fillies in the country, and this year’s edition is no exception. The seven-furlong distance rewards both speed and versatility, and several runners enter in sharp form while others are looking to rebound after facing top-level competition.

A competitive pace appears likely, with multiple fillies possessing early-pressing speed, but I don’t expect the race to completely fall apart. Instead, I’m looking for a horse capable of sitting close to the leaders before making a decisive move turning for home.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

#1 Movie Night (7-2)

Trainer: William Walden
Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Movie Night enters the Test Stakes as an exciting up-and-coming filly with upside. After finishing second in her career debut, she has rattled off two dominant victories by a combined 13½ lengths. More importantly, she improved both her pace figures and final-time ratings in her first start on fast dirt last time, suggesting she’s still developing.

Her running style versatility is a major asset. She rallied from off the pace in her first two starts before showing she could duel on the front end in her latest victory. That adaptability should give her new rider Jose Ortiz options from the rail regardless of how the pace develops.

A bullet five-furlong workout at Churchill Downs signals she’s maintained her sharp form heading into her toughest assignment to date. If she takes another step forward, she’s a legitimate contender.

#2 Percy’s Bar (8-1)

Trainer: Ben Colebrook
Jockey: Manny Franco

Percy’s Bar has proven graded stakes ability but appears to save her very best performances for Keeneland. Her strongest speed figures came in victories there, including the Grade 1 Ashland, while her efforts elsewhere have generally fallen short of that standard.

The cutback from route races to seven furlongs might help, and adding blinkers could encourage a more forward early position. However, trainer Ben Colebrook has struggled historically with the blinkers-on move, and the filly is also cross-entered in the Audubon Oaks at Ellis Park on Sunday.

If she starts, she’s capable of making an impact, but she’ll need to improve on her recent route form.

#3 Sippin Pretty (6-1)

Trainer: Ian Wilkes
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.

Sippin Pretty broke through with a career-best effort when upsetting the Grade 3 Victory Ride Stakes at 26-1. Her speed figure jumped significantly, indicating she may finally be putting everything together.

The challenge is proving that performance wasn’t a one-race spike. Saturday’s Grade 1 field is considerably deeper, and she’ll need another forward move to compete with the division’s best fillies.

She has improving form and enters with confidence, making her an intriguing player.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Saratoga Oaks 2026 Analysis (8-7-26)

The Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks co-headlines the Friday card at Saratoga Race Course, offering a $500,000 purse for three-year-old fillies going 1 3/16 miles on the turf. Scheduled as Race 10 with a 6:17 p.m. ET post time, this year’s renewal features a competitive cast, including several exiting the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks.

Projected Race Shape

This year’s Saratoga Oaks doesn’t appear to feature an abundance of early speed, which could produce a slow early pace followed by a sprint to the finish. Horses capable of securing good position and producing a strong late kick should have an advantage, while saving ground on the turns could prove especially important.

Contender Analysis

#1 Kentucky Belle (6-1)

Kentucky Belle enters the race in excellent form after winning an allowance at this same 1 3/16-mile distance at Keeneland. She rallied from seventh from an outer post to win by a nose over Bless Her, who returned to win her next start.

One of the most encouraging aspects of her profile is the consistency of her recent speed figures, paring-up back-to-back strong performances that suggest she may still have another step forward. Breaking from the hedge should allow her to save valuable ground under Irad Ortiz, Jr., giving her every chance to make a late run turning for home.

#2 Fitz Right (5-2)

Fitz Right has steadily developed into one of the top turf fillies in the division. Trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat, she captured consecutive stakes victories before finishing a close third in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks.

Perhaps most impressive is her progression in speed figures, steadily improving in every start throughout her career. Rather than producing one isolated career-best effort, she has shown a steady upward trend while stretching successfully from one mile to today’s 1 3/16-mile distance.

Her tactical speed should allow her to secure a stalking trip from post two, making her a very dangerous contender.

#3 Code (20-1)

Code has shown consistency but has yet to post the type of performance needed to defeat this caliber of competition. While her recent races have been respectable, she will need significant improvement to contend for the victory.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Hall of Fame Stakes 2026 Analysis (8-7-26)

The Grade 2 National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame Stakes co-headlines the 11-race program at Saratoga on Friday, August 7. The $400,000 event is contested at one mile on the inner turf course for three-year-olds, and it features a competitive field with multiple runners exiting local turf route stakes races.

Race Overview

Several contenders enter off competitive efforts in races such as the Belmont Derby and Saranac Stakes. While many of the entrants possess comparable speed figures, trip and race flow could play a major role in determining the outcome.

The expected pace appears moderate, making positional speed and finishing kick especially valuable over Saratoga’s inner turf course.

Below is a horse-by-horse look at the field.

#1 Touch of Fire (5-2)

Touch of Fire is the deserving morning-line favorite after winning three of his five career starts. He exits the Grade 1 Belmont Derby, where he drew the far outside post, set the pace, and finished fourth, beaten just over a length.

His speed figures are among the best in the field, and the rail draw could allow Irad Ortiz Jr. to control the pace in a race that lacks abundant early speed. Brad Cox has enjoyed plenty of success in turf routes, and this colt appears poised for another strong effort.

#2 Print (15-1)

Print remains eligible for an entry-level allowance despite making his ninth career start. He rallied for third in an allowance before finishing fifth in the Saranac Stakes at 56-1.

While he has shown some late kick, his speed figures have fallen short of the top contenders, and he will likely need a significant step forward to threaten this field.

#3 Vasy (10-1)

Vasy began the season in impressive fashion, winning the Colonel Liam Stakes before placing in the Grade 3 Transylvania. However, he failed to fire in the Grade 1 American Turf, finishing eighth after chasing the pace.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Johnstone Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (8-5-26)

Video analysis of the $200,000 Johnstone Stakes at Saratoga (8-5-26). 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.