Santa Anita Park Analysis (5-22-26)

I’m taking a look at all nine races on the Friday card at Santa Anita Park, and there’s added value on the program thanks to a Pick 6 carryover beginning in Race 4. I’ll be using data from the Complete Digest, including Fire Numbers, CPR ratings, Fast Figs, and Final Time Ratings to break down the card race by race.

Race 1 — Starter Optional Claiming — 1 Mile Turf

The Digest numbers point clearly toward Rehearsal, who owns the best overall profile in the field with strong Fire Numbers, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Rating figures. She’s the obvious contender on paper.

Wildfire Princess has a legitimate chance to control the pace while stretching back out around two turns. She already proved she can handle this distance when winning a maiden claiming event at Del Mar last fall at one mile, and she followed that effort with a competitive third-place finish routing at Santa Anita.

Her recent sprint races weren’t bad at all, especially the runner-up finish going 6 ½ furlongs on turf in February. Juan Hernandez climbs back aboard, and that’s a major positive considering he guided her to one of her better recent efforts.

Race 2 — Maiden Special Weight (Cal-Breds) — 6 Furlongs Dirt

This race looks fairly straightforward. Otto’s Magic owns the strongest projected numbers across the board, including the top Fire Number, CPR, and Final Time Rating.

At even money on the morning line there’s not a lot of wagering value, but from a pure handicapping standpoint this horse simply looks best.

Race 3 — $32,000 Claiming — 6 Furlongs Turf

The Digest projections strongly favor Cosmo Friday, who is expected to post the top Fire Number, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Rating.

What catches my eye is the return to the rider combination that already produced a win earlier this meet. Emisael Jaramillo guided this filly to a maiden claiming victory on March 13 going six furlongs on turf, and if she reproduces that effort she can absolutely beat favorite Eva Lea.

Race 4 — Maiden Special Weight — 1 Mile Dirt

This race kicks off the Pick 6 carryover sequence, and I think it runs through Decisive Win.

Broheim actually owns the best projected Digest numbers, but I have concerns about the surface switch. His better efforts have come on turf, and I’m not convinced the dirt route is what he truly wants.

Decisive Win exits what looks like a key race. In his debut he dueled early against Crudo Velocity, who has since won multiple races including the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile while earning triple-digit speed figures. Civil Liberty, another horse exiting that race, also returned to win next out.

That race experience matters, and now Doug O’Neill stretches this colt out around two turns with Antonio Fresu returning aboard.

Race 5 — Starter Allowance — 6 Furlongs Turf

This is one of the more competitive races on the card from a numbers standpoint. Several runners share similar Final Time Ratings, and the projections are spread among multiple horses.

I really like the cutback in distance for Burning Rubber. This gelding already owns multiple strong turf sprint efforts, including a maiden win at six furlongs and another victory at 6 ½ furlongs with Juan Hernandez aboard.

Last time out he stretched back to a mile and still ran competitively, earning a solid figure despite finishing fourth. Returning to a sprint feels like the right move.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Belmont Stakes 2026 Video Preview

Belmont Stakes 2026 video preview. Early hopefuls: Chief Wallabee, Chip Honcho, Commandment, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, Growth Equity, Ocelli, Ottinho, Potente, Renegade.

The Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, June 6, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.       

Preakness Stakes 2026 Video Recap

In this horse racing video, I recap the 2026 Preakness Stakes. 

The 151st Preakness Stakes was held at Laurel Park on Saturday, May 16, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.       

Preakness Stakes 2026 Collaboration Video

In this horse racing video, The Runaway Horse and Trackside Profits team up to analyze the 2026 Preakness Stakes. 

The 151st Preakness Stakes will be held at Laurel Park on Saturday, May 16, 2026. 

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.      

Preakness Stakes 2026 Analysis at Laurel Park

The 2026 Preakness Stakes takes place at Laurel Park this year while Pimlico undergoes construction, and this year’s edition shapes up as a fascinating pace and trip handicap. Using the numbers and pace figures from the Digest past performances, I’m looking for the horses most likely to capitalize on what should be an aggressive early pace.

This is my hometown race, and I’ve been following the Preakness since 1980. I’ve covered full Preakness Day cards online since the 1990s, and this race often rewards horses that can adapt to pace pressure while still finishing strongly in the final furlong.

Pace Makes the Race

This year’s Preakness projects to feature a contested early pace with several runners preferring to race forwardly placed. That dynamic could dramatically influence the outcome.

Horse	Running Style	Key Figure
Taj Mahal	Front Runner	152 Pace Rating
Napoleon Solo	Speed	180 Pace Rating
Pretty Boy Miah	Forwardly Placed	Back-to-back 143 FTRs
Chip Honcho	Pressing Style	132 Final Time Rating
Incredibolt	Closer	152 Final Time Rating

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1 – Taj Mahal (5-1)

Taj Mahal improved his Digest numbers in each career start and earned a strong 149 Final Time Rating winning the Tesio Stakes. He blasted out to the early lead despite an outside draw, slowed the pace in the middle stages, and then kicked away again.

From the rail, he figures to go forward again, but unlike the Tesio, he probably won’t get away with relaxing through soft interior fractions. With other speed signed on, the pace pressure should be significantly tougher this time.

2 – Ocelli (6-1)

Ocelli is still a maiden after seven starts, but he outran massive odds in the Kentucky Derby when finishing third at 70-1. He rallied effectively into a collapsing pace and briefly threatened in the stretch before flattening late.

The projected setup helps him again because multiple pace horses should ensure legitimate fractions. The concern is whether he can reproduce that Derby effort while still seeking his first win.

Bettor’s Edge

Closers become far more dangerous in Triple Crown races when several speed horses are committed early. Identifying the likely pace flow is often more important than simply comparing final speed figures.

3 – Crupper (30-1)

Crupper wired the Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn and secured his spot here with that victory. His 134 Final Time Rating was respectable, but his 117 Pace Rating suggests he benefited from softer early fractions than he’ll likely encounter in this race.

To stay involved here, he’ll need to show significantly more speed in the opening stages.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Dinner Party Stakes 2026 Analysis

The Grade 3 Dinner Party Stakes shifts to Laurel Park this year while Pimlico undergoes construction, and this turf route drew an interesting mix of proven stakes veterans and improving runners heading into Preakness Saturday. From a handicapping perspective, this race offers a nice blend of established class, current form, and tactical versatility.

The past performance data referenced in this analysis is provided by Today’s Racing Digest.

Meet the Field

Post	Horse	Overview
1	What Say Thee	Draws the rail and should work out a ground-saving trip.
2	Thundering	Comes off solid turf route efforts at Tampa Bay Downs.
3	Cruise the Nile	Sharp Graham Motion trainee riding a four-race winning streak.
4	Fort Washington	Defending Dinner Party winner trying to regain top form.
5	A Bourbon for Toby	Rapidly improving runner stepping into stakes company.
6	Dresden Row	Ultra-consistent stakes performer with tactical versatility.
7	Harrow	Faces a class test after allowance company.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

What Say Thee

This runner earned a strong 140 Final Time Rating last out at Laurel Park, but that effort came against optional claiming company. The positive is that he already proved he can handle this turf course, and from the inside post he should secure a favorable trip. The challenge will be stepping up against tougher graded stakes competition.

Thundering

Thundering enters this race off back-to-back 126 Final Time Ratings at Tampa Bay Downs. He won two starts back before finishing second in another turf route. While consistent, he’ll need to improve his numbers against this deeper field.

Pro Insight

In turf stakes races at Laurel Park, tactical positioning can become critical. Horses capable of sitting close without needing the lead often gain a major advantage turning for home.

Cruise the Nile

Cruise the Nile is clearly one of the major contenders. The Graham Motion trainee earned a 140 Final Time Rating in his most recent start while removing lasix and winning at one mile over the Laurel turf course. That performance extended his winning streak to four races.

What stands out most is his current form cycle. He continues moving forward while already proving he can handle the local surface. Even though his latest stakes win was not graded company, the consistency and improving profile make him a dangerous runner here.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Black-Eyed Susan Stakes 2026 Analysis (5-15-26)

The Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes goes as Race 13 at Laurel Park on Friday, May 15, and this year’s renewal drew an interesting field of developing three-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. With a $300,000 purse on the line, this race gives several improving runners a chance to take a major step forward in the division.

The scheduled post time is 6:14 p.m. Eastern, and the past performance data referenced throughout this analysis is provided by Today’s Racing Digest.

Meet the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes Field

#1 Miss Fulton Gal (30-1)

Miss Fulton Gal enters at 30-1 on the morning line after finishing fourth in the Weber City Miss Stakes, missing third by only a head. She should save ground from the rail and work out a stalking trip behind the speed, but she will need a significant jump forward in her speed figures to threaten this group late.

#2 Ivy Girl (15-1)

Ivy Girl rallied from last to first in the Weber City Miss after employing the same successful closing style in a prior stakes victory at Parx. She clearly benefits from fast pace scenarios and a fair racing surface that rewards late runners. The key question is whether this race shape sets up favorably for another deep-closing effort.

#3 Holly’s Holiday (6-1)

Holly’s Holiday has improved dramatically from two poor starts last season to a perfect two-for-two campaign this year. She dead-heated in a maiden special weight at Oaklawn before winning a non-graded stakes event at one mile at attractive odds. She owns tactical speed, draws well in post three, and picks up Flavien Prat.

#4 Savor It (30-1)

Savor It exits a solid win at Parx going one mile, but this represents a major class hike. She has enough early speed to be involved early, although she looks up against it against this deeper field.

#5 Braken Poppa (7-2)

Braken Poppa is an intriguing Louisiana-bred making her first start against open company. She is four-for-five overall and undefeated this year after dominating back-to-back Louisiana-bred stakes races. Jose Ortiz retains the mount, and her positional speed should allow her to secure a favorable trip near the front.

#6 Haute Diva (15-1)

Haute Diva won the Cash Run Stakes at Gulfstream earlier this year but failed to fire in her last two graded stakes attempts. She will need a major rebound performance after disappointing efforts in both the Davona Dale and Gulfstream Park Oaks.

#7 Jumping the Gun (3-1)

Jumping the Gun has hit the board in all six career starts, but her strongest races came sprinting. She finished third in the Weber City Miss in her return from a layoff and may eventually prove more effective cutting back in distance.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest