Arkansas Derby 2026 Analysis (3-28-26)

I’m breaking down the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, a $1.5 million Kentucky Derby points race at 1 1/8 miles. This race consistently produces serious Derby contenders, and this year’s field brings a mix of proven stakes runners and lightly raced upside types.

From a pace perspective, Redland Rebels figures to be aggressive from the rail, with Litmus Test likely sitting just off the pace from the outside. The rest of the field features stalkers and closers who should benefit if the tempo gets honest early.

7 – Napoleon Solo will not run in this spot. He has been rerouted to the Wood Memorial.

Past Performances Breakdown (Using Today’s Racing Digest)

If you’re playing this race seriously, I highly recommend reviewing the Complete Digest, which provides key metrics like Final Time Ratings and Fire Numbers that I rely on heavily.

1 – Redland Rebels (15-1)

• Improving early in career, especially on turf
• Peak 143 Final Time Rating came on grass
• Faded in Tampa Bay Derby after setting the pace

Takeaway: Likely pace presence, but questionable at this level on dirt.

2 – Silent Tactic (5-2)

• Ultra-consistent closer
• 150 Final Time Rating (Southwest Stakes win)
• Narrow loss in Rebel Stakes after pressing pace

Takeaway: Dangerous late runner with proven numbers.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Gulfstream Park Oaks Video Picks (3-28-26)

Gulfstream Park Oaks video analysis at Gulfstream Park (3-28-26). This is a Kentucky Oaks 2026 points race. Road to Kentucky Oaks 2026 video record (27 12-5-5).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Fantasy Stakes 2026 Analysis (3-27-26)

The Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park is the next Kentucky Oaks prep race on the calendar. With a $1 million purse and 200 total Oaks qualifying points on the line, this mile-and-a-sixteenth test for three-year-old fillies drew a compact field of six headed by even money favorite Explora.

I broke down the field using the Digest past performances, focusing on pace, final time ratings, and projected race shape. Here’s how I see this race unfolding.

Field Overview & Pace Projection

This race sets up with a clear tactical structure. Empath figures to show early speed stretching out, while Explora should sit just off the pace from the outside. Horses like Counting Stars and Sticker Shock will look to capitalize late if the pace softens.

Key Pace Influencers

• Empath (Post 2): Likely pacesetter stretching out from sprint company
• Explora (Post 6): Ideal pressing trip outside
• Sticker Shock (Post 5): Tactical and versatile

Contender Breakdown

1 – Search Party (6-1)

Search Party benefits from the rail and should save ground throughout. She received a 140 Final Time Rating for her win in the Martha Washington in February but that was not a productive race, and her 125 in the Honeybee is probably more indicative of her true ability.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest 

Kentucky Derby 2026 Video Update (3-23-26)

In this Kentucky Derby 2026 video, I share my Exceptional 11 Derby contenders (3-23-26). 

I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my channel. Road to Derby video record (30 12-4-5).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Road to Kentucky Derby 2026 Report (3-23-26)

The Jeff Ruby Stakes and Louisiana Derby were the latest road to Kentucky Derby 2026 prep races and Fulleffort and Emerging Market punched their tickets to Louisville. In this report, I will recap the Jeff Ruby and LA Derby, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.

I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 30 points races, my top choices have 12 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes. The road to the Derby continues with the Florida Derby (G1) and Arkansas Derby (G1) on March 28.

Florida Derby field (race 14): 1 – Albus, 2 – Chief Wallabee, 3 – Wayne’s Law, 4 – Commandment, 5 – Redland Rebels, 6 – Nearly, 7 – Timeless Victory, 8 – The Puma, 9 – Gregarious.

Arkansas Derby field (race 13): 1 – Redland Rebels (15-1), 2 – Silent Tactic (5-2), 3 – Blackout Time (6-1), 4 – Bricklin (20-1), 5 – Taptastic (20-1), 6 – Renegade (3-2), 7 – Napoleon Solo (6-1), 8 – Exosome (20-1), 9 – Litmus Test (5-1).

Napoleon Solo will not run in the Arkansas Derby. He is being rerouted to the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct on April 4.

Redland Rebels is entered in the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby, and he is expected to run in the latter event. He was fourth in the Tampa Bay Derby in his last start.

Bricklin is entered in the Hot Springs Stakes on March 26 and the Arkansas Derby on March 28, and he is expected to run in the latter event. He was third in the Sunland Derby in his last start.

Read more at The Runaway Horse

Santa Anita Park Weekly Report (March 20-22)

Santa Anita Recap for Friday (3-20-26)

Fast main track and firm turf course. One front running winner at 5.5f on dirt. On the turf course, a 2-1 stalker graduated in the 6f opener, a 7-2 front runner earned his diploma at one mile, and a 4-1 front runner tallied at 6f (rail at 30 feet).

Riding doubles for Armando Ayuso (dirt) and Antonio Fresu (turf sprints).

The $2 Pick 6 pool was $49,315 and tickets with six winners paid $3,293.20. The 5 out of 6 consolation prize was $62.80. 

March 20 Claims: Race 7 – Known idea ($20k, George Papaprodromou), One Smokin Dude ($20k, Librado Barocio).

Santa Anita Full Card Highlights for Friday (3-20-26)
SA 1 Rethink/Ou La La/Prestige Fungson Trifecta (SA Best Bet, $107.80)
SA 3 Call Me Cory/Let’s Be Frank Exacta ($23.80), Trifecta ($59.40)
SA 7 UNCLE CHILLY ($5.00)
Double (races 6-7, $22.60)
Pick 3 (races 5-7, $83.40)
$5 Late Double (races 7-8, $93.00)

*Full card highlights based on $2 wagers unless otherwise noted.

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Santa Anita Recap for Saturday (3-21-26)

Fast main track and firm turf course. Three front running winners on dirt (8f, 6f, 6f). On the turf course, a closing favorite graduated in the 9f opener, a 3-1 front runner scored at one mile, strong favorite Grand Slam Smile wired the field from the inside post as the favorite in the Irish O’Brien at 6.5f on the downhill course, and 3-1 closer Gold Phoenix won the San Luis Rey (G3) at a mile and a half.

Riding doubles for Antonio Fresu and Tiago Pereira (routes). Phil D’Amato saddled two turf route winners.

Santa Anita Stakes Recaps for 3-21-26

Irish O’Brien (6.5T hillside): Two runners were declared non-starters (Prancingthruparis, Miss Practical). The former popped the gate and had an unfair advantage, and the latter was not awarded a fair start. Grand Slam Smile ($2.20) made short work of this group from the inside post. She wired the field by 2 1/4 lengths under William Antongeorgi. Take Another Card was second best. Prancingthruparis (non-starter) crossed the line in third and Young Love was another nose back in fourth. Sean McCarthy saddled the popular winner. Fractions: 22.10, 44.29, 1:06.95, 1:12.91.

Read more at The Runaway Horse

Kentucky Oaks 2026 Video Update (3-22-26)

In this Kentucky Oaks 2026 video, I share my updated Fabulous 5 Oaks contenders (3-15-26).

I cover all of the Kentucky Oaks prep races, and through the first 27 points races, my top choices have 12 wins, 5 runner-up finishes, and 5 show finishes. The next Kentucky Oaks points race is the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn on Friday, March 27 and the winner will receive 100 Oaks points. The Gulfstream Park Oaks will be run on Saturday, March 28 and the winner gets 100 points.

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.