In this horse racing video, The Runaway Horse and Trackside Profits team up to analyze the 2026 Preakness Stakes.
The 151st Preakness Stakes will be held at Laurel Park on Saturday, May 16, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
This is my hometown race, and I’ve been following the Preakness since 1980. I’ve covered full Preakness Day cards online since the 1990s, and this race often rewards horses that can adapt to pace pressure while still finishing strongly in the final furlong.
This year’s Preakness projects to feature a contested early pace with several runners preferring to race forwardly placed. That dynamic could dramatically influence the outcome.
| Horse | Running Style | Key Figure |
|---|---|---|
| Taj Mahal | Front Runner | 152 Pace Rating |
| Napoleon Solo | Speed | 180 Pace Rating |
| Pretty Boy Miah | Forwardly Placed | Back-to-back 143 FTRs |
| Chip Honcho | Pressing Style | 132 Final Time Rating |
| Incredibolt | Closer | 152 Final Time Rating |
Taj Mahal improved his Digest numbers in each career start and earned a strong 149 Final Time Rating winning the Tesio Stakes. He blasted out to the early lead despite an outside draw, slowed the pace in the middle stages, and then kicked away again.
From the rail, he figures to go forward again, but unlike the Tesio, he probably won’t get away with relaxing through soft interior fractions. With other speed signed on, the pace pressure should be significantly tougher this time.
Ocelli is still a maiden after seven starts, but he outran massive odds in the Kentucky Derby when finishing third at 70-1. He rallied effectively into a collapsing pace and briefly threatened in the stretch before flattening late.
The projected setup helps him again because multiple pace horses should ensure legitimate fractions. The concern is whether he can reproduce that Derby effort while still seeking his first win.
Closers become far more dangerous in Triple Crown races when several speed horses are committed early. Identifying the likely pace flow is often more important than simply comparing final speed figures.
Crupper wired the Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn and secured his spot here with that victory. His 134 Final Time Rating was respectable, but his 117 Pace Rating suggests he benefited from softer early fractions than he’ll likely encounter in this race.
To stay involved here, he’ll need to show significantly more speed in the opening stages.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
The past performance data referenced in this analysis is provided by Today’s Racing Digest.
| Post | Horse | Overview |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | What Say Thee | Draws the rail and should work out a ground-saving trip. |
| 2 | Thundering | Comes off solid turf route efforts at Tampa Bay Downs. |
| 3 | Cruise the Nile | Sharp Graham Motion trainee riding a four-race winning streak. |
| 4 | Fort Washington | Defending Dinner Party winner trying to regain top form. |
| 5 | A Bourbon for Toby | Rapidly improving runner stepping into stakes company. |
| 6 | Dresden Row | Ultra-consistent stakes performer with tactical versatility. |
| 7 | Harrow | Faces a class test after allowance company. |
This runner earned a strong 140 Final Time Rating last out at Laurel Park, but that effort came against optional claiming company. The positive is that he already proved he can handle this turf course, and from the inside post he should secure a favorable trip. The challenge will be stepping up against tougher graded stakes competition.
Thundering enters this race off back-to-back 126 Final Time Ratings at Tampa Bay Downs. He won two starts back before finishing second in another turf route. While consistent, he’ll need to improve his numbers against this deeper field.
In turf stakes races at Laurel Park, tactical positioning can become critical. Horses capable of sitting close without needing the lead often gain a major advantage turning for home.
Cruise the Nile is clearly one of the major contenders. The Graham Motion trainee earned a 140 Final Time Rating in his most recent start while removing lasix and winning at one mile over the Laurel turf course. That performance extended his winning streak to four races.
What stands out most is his current form cycle. He continues moving forward while already proving he can handle the local surface. Even though his latest stakes win was not graded company, the consistency and improving profile make him a dangerous runner here.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
The scheduled post time is 6:14 p.m. Eastern, and the past performance data referenced throughout this analysis is provided by Today’s Racing Digest.
Miss Fulton Gal enters at 30-1 on the morning line after finishing fourth in the Weber City Miss Stakes, missing third by only a head. She should save ground from the rail and work out a stalking trip behind the speed, but she will need a significant jump forward in her speed figures to threaten this group late.
Ivy Girl rallied from last to first in the Weber City Miss after employing the same successful closing style in a prior stakes victory at Parx. She clearly benefits from fast pace scenarios and a fair racing surface that rewards late runners. The key question is whether this race shape sets up favorably for another deep-closing effort.
Holly’s Holiday has improved dramatically from two poor starts last season to a perfect two-for-two campaign this year. She dead-heated in a maiden special weight at Oaklawn before winning a non-graded stakes event at one mile at attractive odds. She owns tactical speed, draws well in post three, and picks up Flavien Prat.
Savor It exits a solid win at Parx going one mile, but this represents a major class hike. She has enough early speed to be involved early, although she looks up against it against this deeper field.
Braken Poppa is an intriguing Louisiana-bred making her first start against open company. She is four-for-five overall and undefeated this year after dominating back-to-back Louisiana-bred stakes races. Jose Ortiz retains the mount, and her positional speed should allow her to secure a favorable trip near the front.
Haute Diva won the Cash Run Stakes at Gulfstream earlier this year but failed to fire in her last two graded stakes attempts. She will need a major rebound performance after disappointing efforts in both the Davona Dale and Gulfstream Park Oaks.
Jumping the Gun has hit the board in all six career starts, but her strongest races came sprinting. She finished third in the Weber City Miss in her return from a layoff and may eventually prove more effective cutting back in distance.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
The past performance data referenced throughout this analysis comes from data available at Today’s Racing Digest.
Maclean’s Rook exits a victory at Colonial Downs at a mile and a sixteenth against optional claiming company. He has won twice at Laurel Park, but this is a meaningful class hike against tougher graded stakes competition.
His 143 Final Time Rating last out fits competitively on paper, although Colonial numbers do not always transfer to other circuits. Earlier this year in a stakes race at Laurel going one mile, he earned a 135 Final Time Rating, which leaves him needing improvement.
Navajo Warrior enters in sharp form for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. with Flavien Prat aboard. He exits a strong optional claiming victory at Gulfstream Park where he defeated Gosger, a runner-up in last year’s Preakness Stakes.
The key question is distance. Most of his success has come around a mile and a sixteenth, but his recent figures are strong enough to make him a major player if he handles the added ground.
| Recent Fire Numbers | Recent Final Time Ratings |
|---|---|
| 96 – 92 – 104 | 147 – 153 |
He projects to secure a clean tactical trip from the inside and could either set the pace or stalk just off it.
San Siro continues to show up consistently in graded stakes company. He exits back-to-back third-place finishes in the Grade 3 Essex and Grade 3 Ben Ali.
What I like most is his reliability. His recent numbers remain steady, and he consistently finishes with interest late.
| Recent Fire Numbers | Recent Final Time Ratings |
|---|---|
| 104 – 92 – 98 | 146 – 158 |
The concern is pace. In a compact seven-horse field lacking abundant early speed, closers may have a difficult setup.
Awesome Aaron returns to defend his title after winning this race last year under John Velazquez, who reunites with him again here.
This race shape could work perfectly in his favor. There is very little committed speed signed on, and Velazquez excels at placing horses aggressively into favorable tactical spots.
After returning from a layoff in the Oaklawn Mile, where he faded following a fast early pace, he improved sharply in the Ben Ali with a 155 Final Time Rating.
| Race | Pace Rating | Final Time Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Oaklawn Mile | 150 | 119 |
| Ben Ali | 147 | 155 |
This will be his third start off the layoff, and his progression suggests another forward move is possible.
In shorter fields with limited pace pressure, horses with tactical speed often hold a major advantage. Awesome Aaron does not need the lead to win, which gives John Velazquez multiple tactical options.
Xcellent Start has experience and local familiarity, but his running style may leave him with too much to do late.
He exits a fourth-place finish in an allowance race at Charles Town and earned a 131 Final Time Rating. His Fire Numbers are respectable enough, but this pace scenario does not appear favorable for a deep closer.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
In this horse racing video, I preview the 2026 Preakness Stakes (5-11-26).
The 151st Preakness Stakes will be held at Laurel Park on Saturday, May 16, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
In this horse racing video, I share the latest 2026 Preakness Stakes news (5-9-26).
The 151st Preakness Stakes will be held at Laurel Park on Saturday, May 16, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
