With only six runners entered (excluding the two main-track-only horses), pace will likely play a significant role in determining the outcome. Here’s my look at each contender and how I see the race unfolding.
Pace Analysis
With a compact field, early position should be especially important.
Cy Fair and Sapphire Beach appear to be the two most likely pace factors. John Velazquez is an aggressive rider and may send Cy Fair from the inside to secure the lead. However, Sapphire Beach has enough natural speed to either pressure the pace or sit comfortably just outside the leader.
That tactical advantage could prove decisive if the pace remains moderate, making life difficult for the late runners.
Quiet Street (#1)
Quiet Street began her career with back-to-back turf sprint victories, including an impressive maiden win at Saratoga where she rallied from last to first. She followed that debut effort with a stakes victory before facing tougher competition at mostly longer distances in subsequent starts.
The biggest concern is race shape. In a small field without an abundance of early speed, Quiet Street figures to settle near the back early and will need a favorable pace to set up her late kick. She also needs to improve on the speed figures she’s earned this season to return to her best form.
She has enough talent to make an impact late, but the projected pace scenario makes her a difficult horse to back on top.
Cy Fair (#2)
Cy Fair has been one of the most consistent turf sprinters in this division. Through six turf sprint starts, she owns four wins, one second, and one third while consistently earning competitive speed figures.
After winning her Saratoga debut last summer, she finished a close second in a stakes race over the same course before capping her juvenile campaign with a victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. She returned this season with a close third in the Limestone Stakes before capturing a Grade 3 at Churchill Downs.
John Velazquez reunites with the filly after riding her in her first two career starts. Her early-pressing speed gives Johnny V plenty of options, and from post two she could either set the pace or sit just off the leader.
She deserves plenty of respect.
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