Video analysis of the Grade 2, $400,000 Franklin Stakes at Keeneland on Sunday, October 11, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Sunday, October 11, 2026
Santa Anita Park Pick 6 Video Analysis (10-11-26)
Video analysis of the Pick 6 sequence at Santa Anita Park on Sunday, October 11, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Santa Anita Park Pick 6 Carryover Analysis (10-11-26)
This is not an easy sequence, but there are several horses worth building tickets around, including a few potential value plays.
For this analysis, I’m using the Complete Digest, which provides projected speed figures, final-time ratings, class information, and other handicapping statistics.
Let’s break down each leg of Sunday’s Pick 6.
Race 5: Motet is the Top Pick in the Opening Leg
Race conditions: $30,000 claiming, non-winners of three lifetime, fillies and mares, one mile on turf.
The Pick 6 begins with a claiming turf route. Santa Anita’s track profile at this distance shows that midpack runners have won approximately 34% of races, followed by pressers at 26%, front-runners at just under 24%, and rear runners at approximately 16%.
The speed and pace projections give With Love an advantage in the Fire Number and Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR) categories. Motet has the best projected Fast Fig, while With Love and Eternal Reign share the top final-time rating of 125.
After looking at the numbers and pst performnces, my top choice is No. 9 Motet for trainer Peter Miller.
Motet’s final-time ratings have improved in each of his last three starts. He earned a 107 on May 31, then improved to a 113 when winning a $25,000 claiming race for non-winners of two lifetime at Del Mar.
Miller claimed the horse following that victory and moved him into a $32,000 claiming event at Del Mar. Motet finished a respectable third at one mile on turf (122 final rating), and Hector Berrios returns to ride.
Berrios has a strong record with Miller, winning nine of their 32 starts together. Miller also has encouraging statistics with horses making their second start after a claim.
Motet possesses tactical speed, and his improving numbers suggest he can deliver another quality effort. With those factors in mind, he’s my top choice and a horse I like quite a bit in this opening leg.
With Love and Eternal Reign are logical alternatives. Motet could be a possible single for players looking to keep their tickets affordable, although I prefer some coverage in this race.
Race 6: Last Chance Darcy Gets the Call
Race conditions: $12,500 maiden claiming, California-bred fillies and mares, one mile on dirt.
No. 4 Unusual Craving dominates the projected speed and pace figures, posting the best Fire Number, CPR, Fast Fig, and final-time rating in the field.
The class drop makes Unusual Craving a major contender. However, I’m going with No. 3 Last Chance Darcy as my top choice.
Last Chance Darcy should show speed for trainer Aggie Ordonez, with Armando Ayuso aboard.
Last Chance Darcy earned an 87 final-time rating when dropping to the $12,500 maiden claiming level last time out. That race came at six furlongs, where she dueled for the lead before weakening to finish fourth.
The move to one mile could make a difference. If she can establish a comfortable pace, there’s a chance the horse will carry that speed farther and remain competitive through the stretch.
Unusual Craving is certainly dangerous. The horse is dropping in class and has shown competitive projected figures. The main question is how well Unusual Craving will handle the main track after previously racing on turf.
Both horses belong on Pick 6 tickets.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Franklin Stakes 2026 Analysis (10-11-26)
With rain a possibility this weekend, bettors should pay close attention to the weather and any surface changes. Several runners have established turf credentials, while others could become more appealing if the race moves to the main track.
Franklin Stakes Field and Horse-by-Horse Analysis
No. 1 Usha (4-1)
Usha enters the Franklin Stakes after winning a six-furlong stakes race on the Churchill Downs main track. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Flavien Prat, she brings established dirt form and a strong jockey-trainer combination.
Her past performances include a Grade 1 La Brea Stakes victory at seven furlongs, but her recent speed figures have declined. After earning a 152 final-time rating in that win, she recorded figures of 141, 138, 125, 122 and 123.
The biggest question is her lack of turf experience. Her sire, Tiz the Law, has a reported 14% first-time turf winner rate, while her dam has produced three winners from as many starters but none on turf.
Usha could show early speed from the inside post, especially with blinkers being added. However, she will need to improve her recent numbers to compete with the best in this field.
If the race moves to dirt, she becomes more interesting. She has five wins, two seconds and four thirds from 13 career starts on the main track.
No. 2 Itzel (20-1)
Itzel is likely to be prominent early, but her finishing ability is a concern. She dueled for the lead before finishing 10 lengths behind in the Smart and Fancy Stakes on yielding turf.
Before that effort, she finished second in an Ellis Park stakes race at five and a half furlongs. She has also struggled at the distance, winning once from 11 attempts while recording three runner-up finishes and one third.
Itzel could influence the early pace, but she will need to improve considerably to remain competitive through the stretch.
No. 3 Time to Dazzle (8-1)
Time to Dazzle is an appealing price contender who appears to be returning to form at the right time.
She won this race last year, rallying from off the pace to score by more than three lengths with a 147 final-time rating. Her form dipped afterward, with figures of 138, 137 and 134, but she has rebounded with consecutive runner-up finishes.
She earned a 147 rating in the Hendrie Stakes on all-weather footing and followed that with a second-place finish in the Grade 1 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Sprint.
Her recent Fire Numbers of 97 and 98 also suggest that she is performing well. With Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for trainer Mark Casse, Time to Dazzle should be finishing strongly if the early pace sets things up for a closer.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Saturday, October 10, 2026
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Video Picks (10-10-26)
Video analysis of the Grade 1, $750,000 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup at Keeneland on Saturday, October 10, 2026.
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Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Analysis (10-10-26)
The Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is the featured race at Keeneland on Saturday, October 10, with a large field of 11 three-year-old fillies set to compete for a $750,000 purse. The race will be contested at 1 1/8 miles on the turf course, with a scheduled post time of 5:16 p.m. Eastern.
There is a chance of rain on Saturday, so turf conditions could be less than firm.
Let’s take a look at the field, examine the Digest numbers, and identify the top contenders.
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Field Overview
1. Haute Diva (30-1)
Haute Diva has made 11 career starts, recording three wins and four runner-up finishes. She won an all-weather stakes race at Gulfstream Park in June before stepping up to face older fillies and mares in the Grade 2 Beverly D. Stakes.
She was 72-1 in that race and was pinched at the start. After the troubled beginning, she passed a few runners to finish sixth, beaten less than five lengths in a nine-horse field.
She earned a 134 final-time rating when winning the Martha Washington Stakes and a 131 in the Beverly D. Her Fire numbers, which measure speed throughout a race, were 94 and 86 in her last two starts.
She has shown some ability, but she’ll need to improve considerably to compete with this field. From the inside post, she could try to save ground and make a late run.
2. Luster (5-2)
Luster is the horse to beat after winning her last three stakes starts. Her recent victories include the Grade 3 Selene Stakes, the Woodbine Oaks, and the King’s Plate, where she defeated male rivals by more than seven lengths.
John Velazquez returns to the saddle. He has ridden Luster three times, and she has won all three races with him aboard.
Her recent numbers are especially impressive. Her last four Fire numbers were 98, 94, 94, and 101. Her corresponding final-time ratings were 146, 144, 132, and 153, with that top figure coming in her dominant King’s Plate victory.
Luster has also won both of her turf starts, including a victory at Keeneland, and she has handled both firm and yielding turf.
Her tactical speed should allow Velazquez to position her comfortably near the lead without using too much energy early. She has also demonstrated that she can work out a good trip from an inside post.
Luster has repeatedly defeated quality opponents, including horses who subsequently won their next starts. Her connections targeted this Grade 1 event rather than continuing through the Canadian Triple Crown series, giving her a fresh objective after her impressive summer campaign.
With strong recent figures, proven turf ability, and a favorable running style, Luster is a top win contender.
3. Tam Tam (4-1)
Tam Tam has been consistent, with four wins, two seconds, and two thirds from nine starts. She has also handled the 1 1/8-mile distance, recording a win and a third-place finish in two attempts.
She won the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks last time out after finishing first in the previous stakes race, the Tepin Stakes.
In the Del Mar Oaks, Tam Tam worked out an ideal trip by tracking the pace in second, taking over, and holding off the late runners. Her final-time ratings improved from a 146 in the Tepin to a 149 in the Del Mar Oaks.
Her last two Fire numbers were 100 and 97, indicating that she has maintained a strong level of speed throughout her recent races.
Tam Tam has tactical speed and an inside post, which should help her secure a favorable position. She is clearly in excellent form, although she’ll need to reproduce her recent performances against a strong field.
4. Faithful Departed (7-2)
Faithful Departed has finished in the top two in multiple recent graded stakes, including a victory in the Grade 3 Regret and runner-up finishes in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks.
Her final-time ratings have improved in her last three starts, going from 135 to 132 and then 138 in the Belmont Oaks.
She was scheduled to compete in the Dueling Grounds Oaks but had to miss that race after spiking a temperature. Instead, her connections have given her additional time to prepare for this race, and she has recorded some encouraging workouts.
Faithful Departed has shown that she can finish strongly from off the pace. In the Belmont Oaks, she rallied from 10th to finish second, although that trip left her with considerable ground to make up.
Her best effort may come if Jose Ortiz can keep her within striking range, perhaps five lengths behind the leaders, while saving ground around the turns.
She has the class and finishing kick to win this race.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Friday, October 9, 2026
Hill Prince Stakes 2026 Handicapping Article (10-10-26)
The race has attracted a competitive field of nine, including Grade 2 Nashville Derby hero Caroline St. Beat and Grade 3 Old Dominion Derby winner Lennox the Grey. Here is a closer look at the field.
Hill Prince Stakes Field
1. Print
Ricardo Santana Jr. rides Print, who comes off a victory in an optional claiming race at 1 1/16 miles on the Saratoga turf. Santana guided him to that win from off the pace.
One concern is that Print received Lasix in that race but will race without it here. His recent Today’s Racing Digest numbers are solid, including final-time ratings of 140 and 141 and Fire Numbers of 97 in his last two starts.
However, he has lost all five of his previous starts without Lasix, making the medication change a concern. He also figures to be one of the horses trying to rally from off the pace, which can make him dependent on the race shape.
2. Protect and Defend
Protect and Defend enters off a three-length maiden victory at this same 1 3/16-mile distance at Saratoga. He handled yielding turf that day after previously running well at the distance on firm ground.
Trainer Shug McGaughey has a strong record at Belmont, winning four of seven starts at the track.
The major questions are class and the loss of Lasix. He is stepping up from the maiden ranks to face stakes competition, but his improving form and proven ability at the distance make him a tad interesting.
3. Heeere’s Johnny
Heeere’s Johnny is 1-for-10 lifetime and has finished second four times. His lone victory came in the Saranac Stakes at Saratoga at 1 1/16 miles.
He subsequently finished sixth in the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby and seventh in the Grade 3 Old Dominion Derby at Colonial Downs. His Digest final-time rating peaked at 137 before dropping to 126 in his most recent start.
Heeere’s Johnny needs to rebound from latest efforts to become a serious threat.
4. Lennox the Grey
Lennox the Grey is one of two graded stakes winners in this field, along with Caroline St. Beat.
Arnold Delacour trains this son of Liam’s Map, and Antonio Fresu gets aboard for the first time.
Lennox the Grey has won three of his last five starts, with a runner-up finish, and enters off a narrow victory in the Grade 3 Old Dominion Derby at Colonial Downs at 1 1/8 miles.
That race produced excellent Digest numbers. He earned a career-best 141 final-time rating, a 148 CPR, and an 88 Fire Number.
The race featured a slow early pace and a fast finish, and Lennox the Grey showed he could handle that type of race. Prior to his last outing, he won after sitting well off a fast pace, demonstrating that he can adapt to different race shapes.
The additional distance is a question, but his recent form, improving numbers, pedigree and connections make him particularly appealing.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
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