2026 Breeders' Cup Friday video recap.
The 2-day BC was held at Keeneland on Friday, October 30 and Saturday, October 31, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Showing posts with label Jarrod Horak. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jarrod Horak. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 3, 2026
Sunday, November 1, 2026
Santa Anita Park Pick 6 Video Analysis (11-1-26)
Santa Anita Park Pick 6 carryover video analysis for closing Sunday, November 1.
The BC Distaff will be held at Keeneland on Saturday, October 31, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
\Santa Anita Mandatory Payout Pick 6 Carryover (11-1-26)
I’ve narrowed each race down to two primary contenders. My selections are based on pace, recent form, class changes, distance preferences, and the performance projections available through Today’s Racing Digest.
There are some interesting betting opportunities in this sequence. I’m particularly interested in horses returning to their preferred surfaces, runners with improving performance patterns, and first-time starters who could make an immediate impact.
Race 5: $12,500 Claiming – One Mile on Dirt
The opening leg of the Pick Six is a $12,500 claiming event for three-year-olds and up going one mile on the main track.
The Santa Anita Track Profile shows that this distance favors horses racing near the front. Across 22 races, frontrunners have won more than 45% of the time, and pace pressers have also won more than 45%. Midpack runners have not won any of those races, while rear runners have accounted for just 9.1%.
1. Doo Wop Don (5-2)
Doo-wop Don is my top choice. This is an interesting placement by trainer Jeff Mullins, who originally entered the horse in a $10,000 claiming sprint on Saturday before scratching and redirecting him into this one-mile event.
Juan Hernandez takes the mount, and Mullins has been productive recently, going six-for-15. His statistics are particularly appealing in several categories:
- 23% wins with horses moving from sprints to routes.
- 34% wins second off the claim.
- 29% wins with dirt routers.
- Almost 28% wins when moving up in class.
Doo Wop Don returned from a lengthy layoff on October 2, in an $8,000 claiming event at Santa Anita. He won that five-and-a-half-furlong race by a little more than two lengths and earned a 125 Final Time Rating.
That was his best number since Pleasanton in 2024. Now he’s stretching back out to a mile, but I don’t consider the added distance a major concern. He won a one-mile race at Santa Anita in October 2025 and previously finished third at the distance at Los Alamitos.
I like the confident class hike, the rider assignment, and the possibility of another strong performance in his second start following the layoff.
6. Whiskyginandbrandy (7-2)
Whiskyginandbrandy is my second choice. This horse has some of the strongest projected figures in the field and should appreciate a race that rewards forward positioning.
The projected numbers include:
- Fire Number: 94
- Final Time Rating: 132
The horse has a tactical running style, which is a good fit for this one-mile configuration. With frontrunners and pressers dominating the historical results, I don’t want to overlook a runner who can stay close to the early action.
Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming – Six Furlongs on Dirt
This starter optional claiming event is for fillies and mares, three-year-olds and up, going six furlongs on the main track.
Speed is important at this distance. The Santa Anita Track Profile shows that frontrunners have won 72% of the 18 races in the sample. There are several horses capable of being forwardly placed, so I want to pay attention to which runners can secure a comfortable position.
4. Shop Till You Drop (9-2)
Shop Till You Drop is my top selection. The best projected numbers in the field belong to her. She leads the field in the Fire Number, CPR, and Final Time Rating projections.
Her most recent start was a fifth-place finish in a $10,000 starter event at Los Alamitos, where she earned a 104 Final Time Rating. However, I don’t want to judge her exclusively on that performance.
She had some better efforts before that race:
- Finished second at Los Alamitos in September 2025 with a 105 Final Time Rating.
- Finished a close second at Del Mar last fall with a 96.
- Returned from a layoff at Los Alamitos and won by five lengths with a 107.
- Finished second in a $25,000 claiming event at Del Mar with a 114.
The progression from 107 to 114 was encouraging. She regressed in her most recent start, but I think she can rebound in this spot.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Saturday, October 31, 2026
Breeders' Cup Distaff 2026 Video Picks (10-31-26)
2026 Breeders' Cup Distaff video picks.
The BC Distaff will be held at Keeneland on Saturday, October 31, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Breeders' Cup Distaff 2026 Handicapping Article
The scratches of Scottish Lassie and Splendora change the complexion of this race. Both were potential speed influences, and their departures take some potential early pressure out of the field.
Nitrogen is the deserving morning-line favorite. She has never finished outside the top three in 18 career starts and has the fastest overall final-time rating in this field. She likes to be forwardly placed, but the pace could get interesting, particularly with Super Corredora likely to show speed.
Let’s dive into the analysis and see what the Digest numbers show.
Horse-by-Horse Breeders’ Cup Distaff Analysis
1. Immersive (30-1)
Immersive has a strong overall career record, with six wins, four seconds, and two thirds from 12 starts. She is a consistent filly, but I have concerns about her current form. Her speed figures have declined sharply in her last two starts, falling to 126 and 125 after previously recording 140 and 146 when she was in better form.
She was a well-beaten third in the Locust Grove and then finished third in the three-horse Grade 1 Spinster. In that Spinster, she set the pace before weakening and finishing more than nine lengths behind Fully Subscribed.
The rail could put Immersive into the early pace picture, and she has enough speed to influence the opening stages. But I need to see a significant return to her better form before trusting her to win this championship race.
2. Nitrogen (6-5)
Nitrogen is the most accomplished horse in this field. She has nine wins, six seconds, and three thirds from 18 starts. She was second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff and returns with another strong campaign behind her.
Her biggest performance this year came in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Saratoga, where she won by a dozen lengths at 1 1/8 miles. She earned a 174 Final Time Rating that day, the best overall number in this field. She subsequently finished second against the boys in the Whitney, behind Sovereignty, before winning the Beldame at Belmont Park.
Her last-out Beldame performance earned a 150 Final Time Rating. That number puts her right in the mix, and she is capable of much more if she reproduces her Ogden Phipps effort.
The concern is the pace. Nitrogen is an early-pressing type who can race close to the lead, and Super Corredora figures to be aggressive. If Nitrogen gets into an early battle, Fully Subscribed could benefit. Still, Nitrogen is a major threat because she is consistently competitive and has the best overall rating, but she won’t offer much wagering value.
3. Regaled (20-1)
Regaled is an interesting longshot, particularly for bettors looking for a runner to use underneath in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. She finished third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff at 30-1 after producing a late rally from post 12. She returns to the race after winning the Grade 3 Delaware Handicap.
She has won twice at 1 1/8 miles, and both of those victories came in the Delaware Handicap. Her projected CPR of 153 is the best in the field, reinforcing her status as one of the strongest late-running candidates.
Regaled has also been getting back on track after facing tough competition earlier in the season. She finished second to Immersive in the Fleur de Lis before winning at Delaware. I like the fact that she has already shown she can make a late run in this race, but I am not convinced the pace will be fast enough to bring her all the way into contention for the win.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Friday, October 30, 2026
Breeders' Cup Classic 2026 Handicapping Article
Important Scratch Changes the Pace Scenario
Magnitude has scratched out of the Breeders’ Cup Classic after suffering an injury. He has been retired to Ashford Stud.
This is a significant development because Magnitude was one of the primary speed horses in the original field. His absence leaves fewer confirmed pace players and changes how I view the race from a tactical standpoint.
Knightsbridge and Napoleon Solo now look like the two most likely horses to establish the early pace. Forever Young should be able to track them from a comfortable position, while Sovereignty, Golden Tempo, and The Puma will look to make their moves later.
Horse-by-Horse Breeders’ Cup Classic Analysis
1. T O Password (30-1)
T O Password is the longest price on the morning line and enters this race after finishing third, beaten two lengths, in the Grade 3 Elm Stakes at a mile and a sixteenth in Japan in August.
He has won once in three attempts at a mile and a quarter. He also has experience in the United States, having competed in the 2024 Kentucky Derby.
He was 48-1 in that 20-horse Kentucky Derby, drew post nine, broke slowly, encountered trouble, and finished fifth, beaten six and a half lengths. Forever Young finished a close third that afternoon.
His overseas races do not have corresponding numbers in the last six Digest past-performance lines. The available Kentucky Derby figures were a Fire Number of 83, CPR of 115, Fast Fig of 123, and Final Time Rating of 125.
Those figures are not competitive with the leading horses in this field. He has won at the distance, but this is a substantial class test.
2. Sovereignty (5-2)
Sovereignty is a live contender from off the pace for trainer Bill Mott, with Junior Alvarado returning aboard.
He is a perfect three-for-three at a mile and a quarter, with Grade 1 victories in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes, and Travers Stakes last year.
His first two starts this season were below expectations. He finished second in the Oaklawn Handicap and a well-beaten third in the Stephen Foster. However, he bounced back impressively in the Whitney Stakes, rallying from off the pace to win by more than four lengths.
He was scheduled to run in the Jockey Club Gold Cup but was sidelined by a foot abscess. His first few workouts after returning were slow, although he delivered a very good workout at Keeneland on October 25.
The Digest figures show how talented he can be. He earned final-time ratings of 143 and 147 before posting a huge 168 in the Travers last year. His Fire Number in that Travers was 111.
He subsequently recorded a 146 and then a 131 in his first two starts this season. The lower number came in the sloppy Stephen Foster. He then rebounded in the Whitney with a 156 Final Time Rating, his best number since that Travers performance.
There are some things to overcome. He missed his intended prep race, and he had the foot issue. His recent workout was encouraging, and the bar shoe is scheduled to be removed so he can race without it.
The other concern is pace. Magnitude’s scratch takes away some of the speed that would have helped Sovereignty’s closing style.
Still, he’s a mile-and-a-quarter specialist with multiple Grade 1 victories, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he won this race.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Breeders' Cup Classic 2026 Video Picks (10-31-26)
2026 Breeders' Cup Classic video picks.
The BC Classic will be held at Keeneland on Saturday, October 31, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Thursday, October 29, 2026
Kentucky Derby 2027 Future Wager Pool 1 Analysis
2027 Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 1 analysis.
This pool opened on October 28 and closes on Friday, October 30 at 4PM ET.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Breeders' Cup Juvenile 2026 Handicapping Article (10-30-26)
I’m looking at more than wins and losses in this $2 million Grade 1 championship. The key is figuring out which horses have demonstrated the necessary ability, which ones benefited from favorable race flow, and which juveniles are still improving as they stretch out around two turns.
This is also a Kentucky Derby 2027 points race. These young horses are still developing, so I want to identify the runner who can deliver the best performance now while keeping an eye on those who could improve with more experience and distance.
Horse-by-Horse Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Analysis
1. Damavand (20-1)
Damavand enters at a 20-1 morning line for trainer Todd Pletcher, with Luis Saez named to ride. He was beaten by more than nine lengths in his debut before returning at Keeneland for a one-mile-and-a-sixteenth race.
In that second start, he tracked from third in an 11-horse field and won by a neck. His numbers improved substantially, with a Final Time Rating of 96 in his debut followed by a 125 in his second race. His Fire Number rose from 64 to 80, while his CPR climbed from 84 to 128.
Those are encouraging improvements, but I have a concern about the circumstances of that latest victory. It was a slow-early, fast-late race, and he benefited from being able to track the pace before making his move.
He will face much stronger competition here. From the rail, I expect him to save ground and track the pace, but he must demonstrate that he can produce another step forward against this field.
I respect the numerical improvement, but I need more evidence that he can compete at this level.
2. Gaudreau (8-1)
Gaudreau is trained by Chad Brown and Manny Franco is named to ride for the first time after Flavien Prat switches to Hughes.
He won his debut while pressing from second. Two runners from that race, Coach Pope and USS Valor, subsequently won their next starts by wide margins. He then faced USS Valor in a one-turn mile and was no match for that rival.
In the Grade 1 Champagne, he dueled on the lead and finished second, best of the rest behind the winner. That was a respectable effort, but he needs to run much faster to win this race.
The jockey change also catches my attention. Prat moves to Hughes, and that makes sense given Hughes’ recent performance pattern.
He has some useful form and a Grade 1 runner-up finish, but I need a faster performance before backing him.
3. Salahudin (6-1)
Salahudin is a major contender for Bob Baffert. Tyler Gaffalione is named to ride him for the first time. The $325,000 son of Uncle Mo is undefeated in three starts, and he has improved with every race.
His progression is particularly attractive:
| Figure | Debut | Second Start | Third Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final Time Rating | 107 | 117 | 129 |
| Fire Number | 76 | 83 | 90 |
| CPR | 94 | 104 | 120 |
He moved from six and a half furlongs to seven furlongs and then to a one-turn mile. Each time, his figures improved. In the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes, he broke slowly and raced wide but still won by a half-length.
He also had a bullet workout at Churchill Downs on October 25. The biggest question is whether he can get away from the gate cleanly and avoid leaving himself too much ground to make up.
Salahudin looks like a colt who should appreciate longer distances. His long stride and steady improvement suggest two turns could suit him, although the added distance does not eliminate the risk of another slow start.
He has the improving pattern to be dangerous now, and I expect additional ground to remain a positive as his career develops.
4. Earth Song (20-1)
Earth Song won his debut by 11 lengths as the odds-on favorite, but that race featured only three horses. He then faced better competition in the Grade 1 Champagne, finishing fourth and beaten by more than nine lengths at 24-1.
His figures moved in the wrong direction:
| Figure | Debut | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Final Time Rating | 140 | 122 |
| Fire Number | 92 | 82 |
| CPR | 135 | 111 |
That decline concerns me. The impressive debut came against just two rivals, and he failed to reproduce that performance when he stepped up in class. Now he faces another strong field while stretching out to two turns.
I am leaving Earth Song at the bottom of my rankings. He needs to reverse a negative figure pattern while proving he can compete against better horses.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Breeders' Cup Juvenile 2026 Video Picks (10-30-26)
2026 Breeders' Cup Juvenile video picks.
The BC Juvenile will be held at Keeneland on Friday, October 30, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Wednesday, October 28, 2026
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies 2026 Video Analysis
2026 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies video picks.
The BC Juvenile Fillies will be held at Keeneland on Friday, October 30, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Sunday, October 25, 2026
Breeders' Cup Classic 2026 Video Report
2026 Breeders' Cup Classic video report.
The BC Classic will be held at Keeneland on Saturday, October 31, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile 2026 Video Preview
Video preview of the 2026 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.
The BC Dirt Mile will be held at Keeneland on Saturday, October 31, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Street Sense Stakes 2026 Analysis (10-25-26)
The three previous Street Sense Stakes winners at this distance were Incredibolt in 2025, Sovereignty in 2024, and Liberal Arts in 2023. Each came from well off the pace to go last-to-first.
This is a road to Kentucky Derby 2027 points race.
Horse-by-Horse Street Sense Stakes Analysis
1. Ritzy Rags (50-1)
Ritzy Rags dropped from maiden special weight company into a $30,000 maiden claiming race at Churchill Downs last time and won by a head after chasing the pace. He was claimed out of that race, and Rafael Bejarano, his winning rider, stays aboard.
His pedigree offers some encouragement for the added distance. He is by Union Rags, with A.P. Indy as his damsire, so there is a reasonable pedigree argument for handling a route. He also recorded a bullet five-furlong workout on October 9 in 1:01, best of six.
However, this is a major class increase. He beat only four rivals in his narrow maiden claiming victory, and the Street Sense Stakes will demand considerably more.
2. Blessed Flyer (7-2)
Blessed Flyer is two-for-two, winning his debut at four and a half furlongs by a head before taking the Bashford Manor Stakes at six furlongs by another head.
He was scheduled to run in the Iroquois Stakes but ran off before the start and was scratched. He has not raced since June, and his workout schedule has included gaps. He worked five furlongs in 1:00 on October 18, the fastest of 15 recorded works at that distance.
He adds blinkers and his Bashford Manor pilot Brian Hernandez Jr. stays aboard. His Final Time Ratings improved from 104 in his debut to 126 in his second start. That is a positive progression, but both races were sprints, and now he must handle a mile and a sixteenth.
I’m concerned about the combination of the missed start, the interrupted workout schedule, and the distance increase. The talent is there, but he has more questions to answer than his 7-2 morning line suggests.
3. Card Man (5-2)
Card Man is the second choice on the morning line for trainer Chad Brown, with Flavien Prat aboard. He finished second in his six-furlong debut after chasing from third, beaten a length and three-quarters by Q B Rocket. Three horses from that race won their next starts, and Q B Rocket subsequently finished third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
Card Man returned for a one-turn mile at Belmont Park and delivered a five-length victory. He chased from third, moved forward, took the lead, and pulled away. His Final Time Rating improved from 126 in his debut to 129 in his second start.
I like that progression. He improved without making an enormous numerical leap, and that leaves room for another forward move. He now stretches out around two turns for the first time, but the way he finished his mile victory is encouraging.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Rags to Riches Stakes 2026 Analysis (10-25-26)
This is a road to Kentucky Oaks 2027 points race.
Horse-by-Horse Analysis
1. Intraosseous (10-1)
Intraosseous adds blinkers for her fourth lifetime start. She graduated in her second outing at six furlongs before finishing fifth, beaten 14 lengths, in the Sorority Stakes. That last effort was disappointing, although she faced a formidable winner in Emphatic, who also captured the Grade 1 Alcibiades.
Her Fire Numbers progressed from 60 in her debut to 72 in her second start before dropping to 48 in the Sorority Stakes. Her CPR sequence was 75, 99, and 69.
The downward move is concerning, especially because she struggled when stretching out last time. Getting away from Emphatic could help, but I still need to see evidence that she can handle a route effectively.
From the inside post, she could save ground behind the speed. The blinkers might help, but equipment changes do not automatically solve distance limitations.
2. Wharfie (9-5)
Wharfie finished fifth in her six-furlong debut at 23-1 before returning at Belmont Park for a one-turn mile.
In that second start, she was the 5-2 third choice, chased from third, and won by two and three-quarter lengths in a 4-horse field. Her Fire Number improved from 67 to 72, while her CPR figures climbed from 88 to 97.
She is a daughter of Essential Quality, with Medaglia d’Oro as her damsire. Her pedigree suggests that additional distance could be within reach, and her latest performance gives me a reason to consider her a serious contender.
3. Oh She Said Yes (5-2)
Oh She Said Yes won her debut by five lengths at Churchill Downs in a one-turn mile. She took money that day, and the result suggested she had ability. Her next assignment was the Grade 1 Alcibiades, where she finished third but was beaten 18 lengths.
Her Fire Numbers declined from 68 in the debut to 66 in her second start. She was no match for Emphatic and Summer Starlet last time, but she will not face the same level of opposition in this spot.
She is a daughter of Authentic, with Quality Road as her damsire. She will likely stalk the pace and attempt to produce a better effort against this field.
I can understand giving her another chance, but she needs to show that her debut performance was a more accurate reflection of her ability.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest.
Friday, October 23, 2026
Keeneland Stakes Analysis (10-24-26)
Saturday, October 24, brings three intriguing stakes races at Keeneland, featuring promising two-year-olds, a competitive older-horse dirt route field, and a deep group of three-year-old turf runners.
In this preview, I’ll break down the key contenders in each race and examine their recent speed ratings and running styles.
Race 6: Bowman Mill Stakes
$250,000 | Two-year-olds | Six furlongs | Dirt
The Bowman Mill Stakes features a five-horse field of two-year-olds, including two runners coming off impressive performances. My main focus is on Grand Yaupon, who showed significant improvement after adding blinkers, and Conviction, an intriguing second-time starter with plenty of upside.
1. Conviction (5-2)
Conviction won his debut at Gulfstream Park at five furlongs by three lengths, earning a 126 final-time rating and a 144 pace rating.
Breaking from the inside post, he should have an opportunity to make the running. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. has Tyler Gaffalione aboard, and he could take another step forward in just his second career start.
The main question is whether he can improve enough to handle more experienced rivals, but his debut was encouraging.
2. Grand Yaupon (9-5)
Grand Yaupon is my top choice.
His form has followed an interesting progression. After earning an 89 final-time rating in his debut, he improved to 117 when winning a six-furlong maiden race at Saratoga. He subsequently earned a 104 when finishing second in a stakes race at Ellis Park.
A turf experiment at Kentucky Downs did not work out, as he finished eighth at six and a half furlongs. However, his return to dirt in the Clever Trevor Stakes at Remington Park produced a breakthrough performance.
With blinkers added, Grand Yaupon tracked the pace from third before winning by a half-length. He earned a 132 final-time rating and a 138 pace rating.
That was a substantial improvement, and If he reproduces that last effort, he could be tough to beat.
3. Just for Pipa (6-1)
Just for Pipa won his debut at Churchill Downs at six and a half furlongs, earning a 104 final-time rating and a 131 pace rating.
He has shown enough early speed to be forwardly placed, but he will need to run faster to compete with the leading contenders in this field.
4. Teacher (30-1)
Teacher is a first-time starter facing a challenging assignment.
The trainer has won two of four starts with first-time starters and two of eight in dirt sprint races. Sire Pinehurst has produced two winners from 16 first-time starters.
Those statistics provide some encouragement, but this is a difficult spot to debut against the other horses who have already demonstrated ability on the racetrack. I would prefer to see Teacher gain experience before backing him.
5. Booked (6-5)
Booked is the likely favorite for trainer Steve Asmussen and he has valuable stakes experience.
He has raced five times, recording two wins, two seconds, and a third. His last three starts were in graded stakes, including a Grade 3 victory, a runner-up finish in a Grade 2, and a third-place finish in a Grade 1.
His final-time ratings progressed from 99 to 122 and 131 before slipping to 119 and 111 in his most recent outings.
Booked began his career in April at four and a half furlongs, making him an early-developing two-year-old. Although he fits with this group, his recent numbers suggest he has not continued to improve.
He also has limited experience at six furlongs, but his 131 winning effort at that distance shows what he can do when firing his best shot.
Race 8: Grade 3 Fayette Stakes
$350,000 | Three-year-olds and up | One mile and one-eighth | Dirt
The Fayette Stakes brings together an accomplished group of older dirt horses. The field includes multiple graded stakes winners, one runner coming off layoff (Tumbarumba), and several horses whose recent speed ratings leave them with something to prove.
1. Hit Show (4-1)
Hit Show has considerable back class and is my choice to rebound.
I selected him in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic last time, but he was unable to make an impact in a race dominated by eventual winner and race favorite Knightsbridge. He finished fifth, beaten 13 lengths, and appeared to have little left for the stretch.
That performance was disappointing, but his overall record deserves respect. Hit Show won the Dubai World Cup in 2025 and has multiple graded stakes victories in the United States. He has also won twice in dirt routes at Keeneland and owns a 10-for-25 record in dirt routes overall, with three seconds and two thirds.
Breaking from the rail, he should have an opportunity to save ground behind the speed. He can sit within striking range if the pace is manageable or settle farther back if the early fractions are demanding.
I am willing to give this six-year-old another chance based on his class, proven dirt-route form, and record over this track (3-for-3).
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Thursday, October 22, 2026
Keeneland Stakes Analysis (10-23-26)
Race 8: Myrtlewood Stakes
Six furlongs on the main track | Two-year-old fillies
The Myrtlewood Stakes features a field of promising young fillies dashing six panels on the main track. The key handicapping factors are recent speed-figure patterns, experience against stakes company, and how the six-furlong distance might affect each horse.
1. Glory Run (20-1)
Glory Run has won two of her first three starts, but her most recent performance raises concerns. After winning at five and six furlongs, she stretched out to seven furlongs at Ellis Park and was beaten by approximately 12 lengths in a stakes race.
Her Digest figures of 92, 116, and 81 show some inconsistency. She returns to six furlongs, the distance of her second-start victory, when she earned a 116 final-time rating. That earlier performance gives her some appeal, but she will need to rebound significantly from her latest effort to compete with the strongest contenders.
2. Miss Anna (7-2)
Miss Anna is a top contender because she brings one of the strongest improvement patterns in the field.
Her final-time ratings have climbed from 99 in her debut to 111 in her second start and 117 in her most recent race. Her Comprehensive Performance Ratings (CPR), which incorporate pace, final time, and closing fractions, have also improved from 92 to 100 to 103.
Her latest effort came in the Grade 3 Pocahontas Stakes, a one-turn mile race that served as the first Kentucky Oaks points event. She pressed the pace and finished third, narrowly missing second.
The cutback to six furlongs should suit her tactical running style. She has already demonstrated that she can compete against stakes company, and her steadily improving figures suggest she is moving in the right direction.
Trainer Brendan Walsh is also in good recent form, with five wins from his last 15 starts. Tyler Gaffalione retains the mount, giving Miss Anna a favorable jockey-trainer combination.
At 7-2 on the morning line, she offers a compelling combination of improving form, tactical speed, and potential value.
3. Rescue Dawn (6-1)
Rescue Dawn made a promising debut at Saratoga on September 7, winning a six-furlong race by 1¾ lengths with a 107 final-time rating.
That was a solid introduction, and she could be forwardly placed again. The question is whether she can improve enough in her second career start to handle more experienced rivals.
John Velazquez takes the mount. He has won once in eight recent starts with this barn.
Rescue Dawn has potential, but this race will provide a much clearer indication of her ability.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Sands Point Stakes 2026 Analysis (10-23-26)
With limited early speed expected, tactical positioning could play a significant role in determining the outcome.
Sands Point Stakes Field Analysis
1. Miss Fulton Gal (20-1)
Miss Fulton Gal finished third in the Cathryn Sophia Stakes at Parx on August 18. She earned a 140 final-time rating for that performance, but the effort came on dirt, and she has yet to race on turf.
Trainer Michael Gorham has been in good form, winning six of his last 15 starts. However, his record in turf routes is less encouraging, with just three wins from 31 attempts.
Miss Fulton Gal has to prove she can transfer her dirt form to turf, and that uncertainty makes her difficult to endorse in this competitive spot.
2. Bless Her (7-2)
Bless Her brings tactical speed and a favorable inside post for trainer Graham Motion, with Manny Franco taking the mount. Her career record stands at two wins, two seconds, and one third from eight starts.
She finished second in the Dueling Grounds Oaks last time, tracking the pace from the inside before being left well behind the winner, Kentucky Belle, who prevailed by more than six lengths.
Bless Her’s positional speed is appealing in a race without much projected early pace. She should have an opportunity to work out another favorable trip, but there is one major concern: Lasix.
Both of her victories and a narrow defeat came with Lasix. Without it, her results have been less consistent, although she did finish second in the Dueling Grounds Oaks. Her best efforts suggest she will need to improve to win this race.
Motion has been in good form, winning five of his last 15 starts, and Franco is a quality turf rider. The connections, running style, and post position make Bless Her a logical contender.
3. Americathegreat (10-1)
Americathegreat has eight career starts, with two wins and four runner-up finishes. She appears to be moving in the right direction after adding Lasix, switching to turf, and wearing blinkers in her recent races.
She finished second in her first recent turf attempt with blinkers before winning over a mile on turf last time. Her final-time ratings have shown improvement, including a 137 in that latest victory.
Her pedigree suggests she should handle the added distance. With Curlin as her sire and A.P. Indy as her damsire, stamina should not be a major concern.
The question is whether her improving form is good enough to compete against this level of stakes company. She is progressing, but this is a class test. Javier Castellano takes the mount for trainer Mark Casse.
4. Queen of Hawaii (9-2)
Queen of Hawaii has three wins from seven starts, with no seconds or thirds. She is something of an all-or-nothing runner, capable of producing a strong effort but also vulnerable to finishing off the board.
She finished fifth in the Grade 3 Winter Memories Stakes last time after previously running fifth in the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes.
There are reasons to believe she can rebound. In the Lake Placid, the pace was relatively slow, with fractions of 25 seconds, 49 2/5 seconds, and 1:13. That setup did not favor her closing style, yet she was beaten only 1 3/4 lengths.
In the Winter Memories, she was bumped at the start from post 10 and never established a comfortable position. She finished less than three lengths behind the winner.
Her final-time ratings in this country have been 120, 132, 129, and 134. Those figures put her within striking distance of the leading contenders, and the mile-and-an-eighth distance appears manageable.
Queen of Hawaii could deliver a strong effort if the race unfolds more favorably.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
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