I’m looking at more than wins and losses in this $2 million Grade 1 championship. The key is figuring out which horses have demonstrated the necessary ability, which ones benefited from favorable race flow, and which juveniles are still improving as they stretch out around two turns.
This is also a Kentucky Derby 2027 points race. These young horses are still developing, so I want to identify the runner who can deliver the best performance now while keeping an eye on those who could improve with more experience and distance.
Horse-by-Horse Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Analysis
1. Damavand (20-1)
Damavand enters at a 20-1 morning line for trainer Todd Pletcher, with Luis Saez named to ride. He was beaten by more than nine lengths in his debut before returning at Keeneland for a one-mile-and-a-sixteenth race.
In that second start, he tracked from third in an 11-horse field and won by a neck. His numbers improved substantially, with a Final Time Rating of 96 in his debut followed by a 125 in his second race. His Fire Number rose from 64 to 80, while his CPR climbed from 84 to 128.
Those are encouraging improvements, but I have a concern about the circumstances of that latest victory. It was a slow-early, fast-late race, and he benefited from being able to track the pace before making his move.
He will face much stronger competition here. From the rail, I expect him to save ground and track the pace, but he must demonstrate that he can produce another step forward against this field.
I respect the numerical improvement, but I need more evidence that he can compete at this level.
2. Gaudreau (8-1)
Gaudreau is trained by Chad Brown and Manny Franco is named to ride for the first time after Flavien Prat switches to Hughes.
He won his debut while pressing from second. Two runners from that race, Coach Pope and USS Valor, subsequently won their next starts by wide margins. He then faced USS Valor in a one-turn mile and was no match for that rival.
In the Grade 1 Champagne, he dueled on the lead and finished second, best of the rest behind the winner. That was a respectable effort, but he needs to run much faster to win this race.
The jockey change also catches my attention. Prat moves to Hughes, and that makes sense given Hughes’ recent performance pattern.
He has some useful form and a Grade 1 runner-up finish, but I need a faster performance before backing him.
3. Salahudin (6-1)
Salahudin is a major contender for Bob Baffert. Tyler Gaffalione is named to ride him for the first time. The $325,000 son of Uncle Mo is undefeated in three starts, and he has improved with every race.
His progression is particularly attractive:
| Figure | Debut | Second Start | Third Start |
|---|---|---|---|
| Final Time Rating | 107 | 117 | 129 |
| Fire Number | 76 | 83 | 90 |
| CPR | 94 | 104 | 120 |
He moved from six and a half furlongs to seven furlongs and then to a one-turn mile. Each time, his figures improved. In the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes, he broke slowly and raced wide but still won by a half-length.
He also had a bullet workout at Churchill Downs on October 25. The biggest question is whether he can get away from the gate cleanly and avoid leaving himself too much ground to make up.
Salahudin looks like a colt who should appreciate longer distances. His long stride and steady improvement suggest two turns could suit him, although the added distance does not eliminate the risk of another slow start.
He has the improving pattern to be dangerous now, and I expect additional ground to remain a positive as his career develops.
4. Earth Song (20-1)
Earth Song won his debut by 11 lengths as the odds-on favorite, but that race featured only three horses. He then faced better competition in the Grade 1 Champagne, finishing fourth and beaten by more than nine lengths at 24-1.
His figures moved in the wrong direction:
| Figure | Debut | Second Start |
|---|---|---|
| Final Time Rating | 140 | 122 |
| Fire Number | 92 | 82 |
| CPR | 135 | 111 |
That decline concerns me. The impressive debut came against just two rivals, and he failed to reproduce that performance when he stepped up in class. Now he faces another strong field while stretching out to two turns.
I am leaving Earth Song at the bottom of my rankings. He needs to reverse a negative figure pattern while proving he can compete against better horses.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
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