The marathon turf distance should play an important role in the handicapping, particularly because several horses in the field have proven experience at 1½ miles or longer.
Here is a horse-by-horse look at the field.
#1 Goldeneye (30-1)
Goldeneye figures to be one of the primary pace factors from the inside post.
He showed his early speed in the Bowling Green Gold Cup at Kentucky Downs, opening up by nine lengths before weakening to finish fourth, beaten less than three lengths. He has won twice at 1½ miles, so the distance itself isn’t necessarily the issue.
However, his recent final-time ratings don’t stack up particularly well against this field. His best recent figures include a 104 and a 123, which leave him needing a significant improvement.
He also struggled badly in last year’s Sycamore, finishing last and beaten by 50 lengths after failing to make the lead.
#2 Just a Touch (5-2)
Morning line favorite Just a Touch is one of the most intriguing horses in the field.
He has won three of his last four starts, including two victories at 1½ miles—the Cape Henlopen Stakes at Delaware Park and the Colonial Cup at Colonial Downs.
His recent numbers are excellent. He has recorded final-time ratings of 147, 147 and 149 in his three strongest recent turf efforts, while his pace ratings are also competitive.
He is 1-for-1 at Keeneland and has already won with Irad Ortiz aboard.
The major question is his graded-stakes record. He is 0-for-8 in graded stakes, although much of that experience came on dirt. The move to turf has revitalized his career.
#3 Mercante (20-1)
Mercante had an uncomfortable start and finished last in the Grade 1 Turf Mile at Keeneland on Oct. 3.
Prior to that, he pressed the pace from post 11 in a turf route stakes race at Ellis Park and finished sixth, beaten a little more than three lengths. His final-time rating of 138 wasn’t fast enough, although he did record a much better 150 two starts earlier.
The biggest concern is the 1½-mile distance. He is winless in two starts at Keeneland and is 0-for-1 at this distance.
#4 Navy Seal (6-1)
The Bowling Green effort can be forgiven to an extent because the distance appeared to work against him. Cutting back to 1½ miles should allow him to produce a stronger finish.
He has already won at this distance and has two solid efforts at 1½ miles. His third-place finish in the Grade 2 Elkhorn at Keeneland is particularly interesting because the race favored closers and Navy Seal was involved in the pace.
He also enters this race with back-to-back bullet workouts at Keeneland, including a turf bullet.
#5 Echo Lane (12-1)
Echo Lane hasn’t raced at Keeneland, but he has finished third in both of his starts at 1½ miles.
His last two races came at 1 3/8 miles, including the Grade 2 United Nations. He finished fourth in both races.
His recent final-time ratings have declined, however. He posted a 158 and 140 in his two starts at 1½ miles, followed by only a 128 and 122 in his last two races.
The distance is not a dealbreaker, but his current form is a bit of a concern.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
No comments:
Post a Comment