Belmont Stakes 2026 video preview. Early hopefuls: Chief Wallabee, Commandment, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, Growth Equity, Ocelli, Ottinho, Powershift, Renegade, Vitruvian Man.
The Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, June 6, 2026.
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The races covered in this analysis include the Grade 2 Shawnee Stakes, Grade 3 Aristides Stakes, and Grade 3 Blame Stakes. I’ll go through the contenders, discuss the projected race shape, and identify the horses I believe offer the strongest chances based on form, pace setup, and Digest ratings.
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Purse: $300,000
Division: Fillies & Mares
Splendora enters as the morning-line favorite for Bob Baffert and looks like the horse to beat if she rebounds from her disappointing effort in the Derby City Distaff. Prior to that race, she had been exceptionally sharp, posting multiple strong Digest figures including back-to-back 155 ratings. Her Grade 1 Beholder Mile victory at Santa Anita proved she can handle two turns effectively, and her Del Mar form last year was outstanding.
While the recent Churchill defeat raises questions, she has trained forwardly over the surface since that race and retains Flavien Prat. If she returns to her best form, she is clearly fast enough to win.
Immersive is the horse I believe still has upside. Brad Cox has done an excellent job managing her career, and she has never finished outside the exacta in eight starts. Her comeback effort at seven furlongs looked more like a prep than a target race, and stretching back out around two turns should help significantly.
She owns tactical speed, draws the outside post, and gets Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. Her previous Churchill performances fit well against this group, and her progression suggests another move forward is possible second off the layoff.
Majestic Oops is a hard-trying mare who consistently picks up checks at this level. She exits a respectable effort in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and already owns a Grade 2 victory this season in the Azeri Stakes. Her consistency makes her usable underneath in exotics.
The Penn Oaks at Penn National on Friday, May 29th features a competitive group of three-year-old fillies going one mile on the turf for a $150,000 purse. This race goes as Race 5 with a scheduled post time of 7:12 p.m. Eastern, and I think this is an intriguing betting race because there are several lightly raced fillies with upside, along with a couple of runners that could take significant money despite having legitimate questions to answer.
The past performance data for this analysis is provided by Today’s Racing Digest. If you’re playing the Penn National card, make sure to grab the Digest products to follow along with the pace ratings, Final Time Ratings, and projected race shape.
The field includes a pair of fillies exiting the same prep race, the Sanibel Island, along with a European shipper and a few pace players that could shape how this turf mile unfolds.
| Horse | Morning Line | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Vekoma View | 4-1 | Versatile filly with improving figures and tactical speed |
| Somemunny to Love | 30-1 | Possible pace factor stretching back out in distance |
| Sutura | 20-1 | Surface switcher with early speed potential |
| Call On Me | 5-1 | Tactical runner capable of working out ideal trip |
| Final Accord | 5-2 | Talented sprinter trying to prove route ability |
| Bandiagara | 9-5 | European import making U.S. debut |
| Smexy | 6-1 | Wide-trip victim in U.S. debut |
Vekoma View has a good overall progression pattern. Her Final Time Rating has improved in all three career starts:
| Race | Final Time Rating | Pace Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Career Debut | 108 | 84 |
| Maiden Win | 117 | 122 |
| Sanibel Island Stakes | 126 | 143 |
That improving pattern is exactly what I want to see from a lightly raced three-year-old filly moving into a stakes event like this.
Last time in the Sanibel Island, she actually ran better than the running line might initially suggest. She saved ground early, briefly lost position because she didn’t have room, then re-rallied late once the inside opened. The key for me is that she handled a faster pace scenario and still finished well.
From the rail, Tyler Gaffalione should have options. If the pace comes up soft, she can sit close. If others go, she can save ground and stalk. That versatility gives her a possible tactical advantage in this field.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Belmont Stakes 2026 video preview. Early hopefuls: Chief Wallabee, Chip Honcho (out), Commandment, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, Growth Equity, Ocelli, Ottinho, Potente (out), Powershift, Renegade, Vitruvian Man.
The Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, June 6, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
The Hollywood Gold Cup drew a compact five-horse field, but there are still plenty of handicapping angles to consider. Two of the favorites enter with questions surrounding current form and class consistency.
| Horse | Fire Number | CPR | Fast Fig | Final Time Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McVay | 98 | 123 | – | – |
| Malarchuk | – | – | 129 | – |
| Forged Steel | – | – | – | 143 |
Fire Number ratings measure speed throughout a race, while CPR combines pace, final time, and closing fractions into a comprehensive performance figure.
Forged Steel and McVay are the designated front-runners, and from the rail draw, Forged Steel projects to secure the lead early. In a small field lacking significant pace depth, that tactical edge might become extremely important.
Ford Steel enters in sharp current form with consecutive strong final time ratings of 141, 144, and 143 while stretching out from a mile to marathon distances. He won two of his last three starts and posted a sharp Churchill Downs workout on May 18.
Flavien Prat teams up with Saffie Joseph Jr., a productive jockey-trainer combination, and the race setup could allow Ford Steel to control the pace throughout.
Subsanador was a major player in 2024, but he missed all of 2025 before returning with two disappointing efforts this season. He still owns strong projected figures, but bettors must decide whether he can regain his prior form.
Malarchuk makes his second off the layoff after a solid runner-up finish in a stakes race at Sunland Park. Previously trained by Chad Brown and now in the Michael McCarthy barn, he could improve with Juan Hernandez aboard.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Belmont Stakes 2026 video preview. Early hopefuls: Chief Wallabee, Chip Honcho, Commandment, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, Growth Equity, Ocelli, Ottinho, Potente, Powershift, Renegade.
The Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, June 6, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
We’ll go race by race through the stakes action, breaking down the projected pace scenarios, key speed figures, and the horses I believe offer the strongest wagering value.
6 Furlongs – Dirt – California-Breds
The first stakes race on the card drew a seven-horse field, and this race profile strongly favors speed. Front-runners at this six-furlong distance have been winning at a high percentage, so tactical position should be critical from the opening break.
The horse to beat is clearly Big City Lights, and the projections back that up across every major category.
| Rating | Big City Lights |
|---|---|
| Fire Number | 100 |
| CPR | 153 |
| Fast Fig | 132 |
| Final Time Rating | 152 |
The Fire Number measures speed throughout the race, and Big City Lights towers over this field with a projected 100. He also owns the top CPR and Fast Fig, and best Final Time Rating.
Last time out, he returned from a layoff stretching from November to May and immediately fired a winning effort at seven furlongs while earning a 100 Fire Number and a 152 Final Time Rating. That race confirmed he came back every bit as sharp as before.
His dirt sprint record at Santa Anita is especially impressive:
Kazushi Kimura rides back for Richard Mandella, and this proven class edge makes Big City Lights the clear horse to beat.
Lonesome Stew has tactical speed and enough back class to compete if the favorite falters. His prior 150 Final Time Rating shows he is capable on his best day.
Uncle Chilly enters sharp off back-to-back victories and continues improving, although this is a meaningful class rise.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Using the past performances from Today’s Racing Digest, I broke down the field from both a pace and figure standpoint to determine which runners are most likely to get the right trip and deliver their best effort.
The pace complexion looks fairly straightforward on paper. Chasing Freedom and Track Tiger appear to be the primary speed influences, with both runners showing consistent front-end intent in recent starts.
From the rail, Chasing Freedom should be aggressive early after wiring a field at Fair Grounds in his maiden victory. However, I do not expect him to get an uncontested lead here.
Track Tiger has tactical speed and picks up aggressive rider Kendrick Carmouche, who is unlikely to concede early position. Just behind those two, horses like Intricate Spirit and Twilight Delight should work out stalking trips within striking range.
Closers such as Azizam and Itza Lock may benefit if the pace becomes heated, but this race does not project to collapse the way the Palisades Stakes did at Keeneland.
Chasing Freedom earned a 146 Pace Rating and 128 Final Time Rating in his maiden victory at Fair Grounds. The numbers are respectable, especially for a lightly raced horse making his first start against winners.
The key question is whether he can reproduce that effort while stretching from five and a half furlongs to six furlongs against significantly tougher company.
Track Tiger owns some of the stronger sprint credentials in the field. Two starts back, he wired an allowance field with a 140 Pace Rating and 144 Final Time Rating while earning a 96 Fire Number.
Last time out, he finished second as the favorite in the John Shear Stakes after setting the pace throughout. The concern is whether softer ground at Aqueduct could dull his California-based speed profile if forecasted rain impacts the course condition.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
I’m taking a look at all nine races on the Friday card at Santa Anita Park, and there’s added value on the program thanks to a Pick 6 carryover beginning in Race 4. I’ll be using data from the Complete Digest, including Fire Numbers, CPR ratings, Fast Figs, and Final Time Ratings to break down the card race by race.
The Digest numbers point clearly toward Rehearsal, who owns the best overall profile in the field with strong Fire Numbers, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Rating figures. She’s the obvious contender on paper.
Wildfire Princess has a legitimate chance to control the pace while stretching back out around two turns. She already proved she can handle this distance when winning a maiden claiming event at Del Mar last fall at one mile, and she followed that effort with a competitive third-place finish routing at Santa Anita.
Her recent sprint races weren’t bad at all, especially the runner-up finish going 6 ½ furlongs on turf in February. Juan Hernandez climbs back aboard, and that’s a major positive considering he guided her to one of her better recent efforts.
This race looks fairly straightforward. Otto’s Magic owns the strongest projected numbers across the board, including the top Fire Number, CPR, and Final Time Rating.
At even money on the morning line there’s not a lot of wagering value, but from a pure handicapping standpoint this horse simply looks best.
The Digest projections strongly favor Cosmo Friday, who is expected to post the top Fire Number, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Rating.
What catches my eye is the return to the rider combination that already produced a win earlier this meet. Emisael Jaramillo guided this filly to a maiden claiming victory on March 13 going six furlongs on turf, and if she reproduces that effort she can absolutely beat favorite Eva Lea.
This race kicks off the Pick 6 carryover sequence, and I think it runs through Decisive Win.
Broheim actually owns the best projected Digest numbers, but I have concerns about the surface switch. His better efforts have come on turf, and I’m not convinced the dirt route is what he truly wants.
Decisive Win exits what looks like a key race. In his debut he dueled early against Crudo Velocity, who has since won multiple races including the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile while earning triple-digit speed figures. Civil Liberty, another horse exiting that race, also returned to win next out.
That race experience matters, and now Doug O’Neill stretches this colt out around two turns with Antonio Fresu returning aboard.
This is one of the more competitive races on the card from a numbers standpoint. Several runners share similar Final Time Ratings, and the projections are spread among multiple horses.
I really like the cutback in distance for Burning Rubber. This gelding already owns multiple strong turf sprint efforts, including a maiden win at six furlongs and another victory at 6 ½ furlongs with Juan Hernandez aboard.
Last time out he stretched back to a mile and still ran competitively, earning a solid figure despite finishing fourth. Returning to a sprint feels like the right move.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Belmont Stakes 2026 video preview. Early hopefuls: Chief Wallabee, Chip Honcho, Commandment, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, Growth Equity, Ocelli, Ottinho, Potente, Renegade.
The Belmont Stakes will be held at Saratoga Race Course on Saturday, June 6, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
In this horse racing video, I recap the 2026 Preakness Stakes.
The 151st Preakness Stakes was held at Laurel Park on Saturday, May 16, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
In this horse racing video, The Runaway Horse and Trackside Profits team up to analyze the 2026 Preakness Stakes.
The 151st Preakness Stakes will be held at Laurel Park on Saturday, May 16, 2026.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
This is my hometown race, and I’ve been following the Preakness since 1980. I’ve covered full Preakness Day cards online since the 1990s, and this race often rewards horses that can adapt to pace pressure while still finishing strongly in the final furlong.
This year’s Preakness projects to feature a contested early pace with several runners preferring to race forwardly placed. That dynamic could dramatically influence the outcome.
| Horse | Running Style | Key Figure |
|---|---|---|
| Taj Mahal | Front Runner | 152 Pace Rating |
| Napoleon Solo | Speed | 180 Pace Rating |
| Pretty Boy Miah | Forwardly Placed | Back-to-back 143 FTRs |
| Chip Honcho | Pressing Style | 132 Final Time Rating |
| Incredibolt | Closer | 152 Final Time Rating |
Taj Mahal improved his Digest numbers in each career start and earned a strong 149 Final Time Rating winning the Tesio Stakes. He blasted out to the early lead despite an outside draw, slowed the pace in the middle stages, and then kicked away again.
From the rail, he figures to go forward again, but unlike the Tesio, he probably won’t get away with relaxing through soft interior fractions. With other speed signed on, the pace pressure should be significantly tougher this time.
Ocelli is still a maiden after seven starts, but he outran massive odds in the Kentucky Derby when finishing third at 70-1. He rallied effectively into a collapsing pace and briefly threatened in the stretch before flattening late.
The projected setup helps him again because multiple pace horses should ensure legitimate fractions. The concern is whether he can reproduce that Derby effort while still seeking his first win.
Closers become far more dangerous in Triple Crown races when several speed horses are committed early. Identifying the likely pace flow is often more important than simply comparing final speed figures.
Crupper wired the Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn and secured his spot here with that victory. His 134 Final Time Rating was respectable, but his 117 Pace Rating suggests he benefited from softer early fractions than he’ll likely encounter in this race.
To stay involved here, he’ll need to show significantly more speed in the opening stages.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
The past performance data referenced in this analysis is provided by Today’s Racing Digest.
| Post | Horse | Overview |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | What Say Thee | Draws the rail and should work out a ground-saving trip. |
| 2 | Thundering | Comes off solid turf route efforts at Tampa Bay Downs. |
| 3 | Cruise the Nile | Sharp Graham Motion trainee riding a four-race winning streak. |
| 4 | Fort Washington | Defending Dinner Party winner trying to regain top form. |
| 5 | A Bourbon for Toby | Rapidly improving runner stepping into stakes company. |
| 6 | Dresden Row | Ultra-consistent stakes performer with tactical versatility. |
| 7 | Harrow | Faces a class test after allowance company. |
This runner earned a strong 140 Final Time Rating last out at Laurel Park, but that effort came against optional claiming company. The positive is that he already proved he can handle this turf course, and from the inside post he should secure a favorable trip. The challenge will be stepping up against tougher graded stakes competition.
Thundering enters this race off back-to-back 126 Final Time Ratings at Tampa Bay Downs. He won two starts back before finishing second in another turf route. While consistent, he’ll need to improve his numbers against this deeper field.
In turf stakes races at Laurel Park, tactical positioning can become critical. Horses capable of sitting close without needing the lead often gain a major advantage turning for home.
Cruise the Nile is clearly one of the major contenders. The Graham Motion trainee earned a 140 Final Time Rating in his most recent start while removing lasix and winning at one mile over the Laurel turf course. That performance extended his winning streak to four races.
What stands out most is his current form cycle. He continues moving forward while already proving he can handle the local surface. Even though his latest stakes win was not graded company, the consistency and improving profile make him a dangerous runner here.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
The scheduled post time is 6:14 p.m. Eastern, and the past performance data referenced throughout this analysis is provided by Today’s Racing Digest.
Miss Fulton Gal enters at 30-1 on the morning line after finishing fourth in the Weber City Miss Stakes, missing third by only a head. She should save ground from the rail and work out a stalking trip behind the speed, but she will need a significant jump forward in her speed figures to threaten this group late.
Ivy Girl rallied from last to first in the Weber City Miss after employing the same successful closing style in a prior stakes victory at Parx. She clearly benefits from fast pace scenarios and a fair racing surface that rewards late runners. The key question is whether this race shape sets up favorably for another deep-closing effort.
Holly’s Holiday has improved dramatically from two poor starts last season to a perfect two-for-two campaign this year. She dead-heated in a maiden special weight at Oaklawn before winning a non-graded stakes event at one mile at attractive odds. She owns tactical speed, draws well in post three, and picks up Flavien Prat.
Savor It exits a solid win at Parx going one mile, but this represents a major class hike. She has enough early speed to be involved early, although she looks up against it against this deeper field.
Braken Poppa is an intriguing Louisiana-bred making her first start against open company. She is four-for-five overall and undefeated this year after dominating back-to-back Louisiana-bred stakes races. Jose Ortiz retains the mount, and her positional speed should allow her to secure a favorable trip near the front.
Haute Diva won the Cash Run Stakes at Gulfstream earlier this year but failed to fire in her last two graded stakes attempts. She will need a major rebound performance after disappointing efforts in both the Davona Dale and Gulfstream Park Oaks.
Jumping the Gun has hit the board in all six career starts, but her strongest races came sprinting. She finished third in the Weber City Miss in her return from a layoff and may eventually prove more effective cutting back in distance.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
The past performance data referenced throughout this analysis comes from data available at Today’s Racing Digest.
Maclean’s Rook exits a victory at Colonial Downs at a mile and a sixteenth against optional claiming company. He has won twice at Laurel Park, but this is a meaningful class hike against tougher graded stakes competition.
His 143 Final Time Rating last out fits competitively on paper, although Colonial numbers do not always transfer to other circuits. Earlier this year in a stakes race at Laurel going one mile, he earned a 135 Final Time Rating, which leaves him needing improvement.
Navajo Warrior enters in sharp form for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. with Flavien Prat aboard. He exits a strong optional claiming victory at Gulfstream Park where he defeated Gosger, a runner-up in last year’s Preakness Stakes.
The key question is distance. Most of his success has come around a mile and a sixteenth, but his recent figures are strong enough to make him a major player if he handles the added ground.
| Recent Fire Numbers | Recent Final Time Ratings |
|---|---|
| 96 – 92 – 104 | 147 – 153 |
He projects to secure a clean tactical trip from the inside and could either set the pace or stalk just off it.
San Siro continues to show up consistently in graded stakes company. He exits back-to-back third-place finishes in the Grade 3 Essex and Grade 3 Ben Ali.
What I like most is his reliability. His recent numbers remain steady, and he consistently finishes with interest late.
| Recent Fire Numbers | Recent Final Time Ratings |
|---|---|
| 104 – 92 – 98 | 146 – 158 |
The concern is pace. In a compact seven-horse field lacking abundant early speed, closers may have a difficult setup.
Awesome Aaron returns to defend his title after winning this race last year under John Velazquez, who reunites with him again here.
This race shape could work perfectly in his favor. There is very little committed speed signed on, and Velazquez excels at placing horses aggressively into favorable tactical spots.
After returning from a layoff in the Oaklawn Mile, where he faded following a fast early pace, he improved sharply in the Ben Ali with a 155 Final Time Rating.
| Race | Pace Rating | Final Time Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Oaklawn Mile | 150 | 119 |
| Ben Ali | 147 | 155 |
This will be his third start off the layoff, and his progression suggests another forward move is possible.
In shorter fields with limited pace pressure, horses with tactical speed often hold a major advantage. Awesome Aaron does not need the lead to win, which gives John Velazquez multiple tactical options.
Xcellent Start has experience and local familiarity, but his running style may leave him with too much to do late.
He exits a fourth-place finish in an allowance race at Charles Town and earned a 131 Final Time Rating. His Fire Numbers are respectable enough, but this pace scenario does not appear favorable for a deep closer.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
