The past performance data referenced throughout this analysis comes from data available at Today’s Racing Digest.
Meet the Field
1. Maclean’s Rook (4-1)
Maclean’s Rook exits a victory at Colonial Downs at a mile and a sixteenth against optional claiming company. He has won twice at Laurel Park, but this is a meaningful class hike against tougher graded stakes competition.
His 143 Final Time Rating last out fits competitively on paper, although Colonial numbers do not always transfer to other circuits. Earlier this year in a stakes race at Laurel going one mile, he earned a 135 Final Time Rating, which leaves him needing improvement.
2. Navajo Warrior (5-2)
Navajo Warrior enters in sharp form for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. with Flavien Prat aboard. He exits a strong optional claiming victory at Gulfstream Park where he defeated Gosger, a runner-up in last year’s Preakness Stakes.
The key question is distance. Most of his success has come around a mile and a sixteenth, but his recent figures are strong enough to make him a major player if he handles the added ground.
| Recent Fire Numbers | Recent Final Time Ratings |
|---|---|
| 96 – 92 – 104 | 147 – 153 |
He projects to secure a clean tactical trip from the inside and could either set the pace or stalk just off it.
3. San Siro (6-1)
San Siro continues to show up consistently in graded stakes company. He exits back-to-back third-place finishes in the Grade 3 Essex and Grade 3 Ben Ali.
What I like most is his reliability. His recent numbers remain steady, and he consistently finishes with interest late.
| Recent Fire Numbers | Recent Final Time Ratings |
|---|---|
| 104 – 92 – 98 | 146 – 158 |
The concern is pace. In a compact seven-horse field lacking abundant early speed, closers may have a difficult setup.
4. Awesome Aaron (9-2)
Awesome Aaron returns to defend his title after winning this race last year under John Velazquez, who reunites with him again here.
This race shape could work perfectly in his favor. There is very little committed speed signed on, and Velazquez excels at placing horses aggressively into favorable tactical spots.
After returning from a layoff in the Oaklawn Mile, where he faded following a fast early pace, he improved sharply in the Ben Ali with a 155 Final Time Rating.
| Race | Pace Rating | Final Time Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Oaklawn Mile | 150 | 119 |
| Ben Ali | 147 | 155 |
This will be his third start off the layoff, and his progression suggests another forward move is possible.
Pro Insight
In shorter fields with limited pace pressure, horses with tactical speed often hold a major advantage. Awesome Aaron does not need the lead to win, which gives John Velazquez multiple tactical options.
5. Xcellent Start (30-1)
Xcellent Start has experience and local familiarity, but his running style may leave him with too much to do late.
He exits a fourth-place finish in an allowance race at Charles Town and earned a 131 Final Time Rating. His Fire Numbers are respectable enough, but this pace scenario does not appear favorable for a deep closer.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
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