Preakness Stakes 2026 Analysis at Laurel Park

The 2026 Preakness Stakes takes place at Laurel Park this year while Pimlico undergoes construction, and this year’s edition shapes up as a fascinating pace and trip handicap. Using the numbers and pace figures from the Digest past performances, I’m looking for the horses most likely to capitalize on what should be an aggressive early pace.

This is my hometown race, and I’ve been following the Preakness since 1980. I’ve covered full Preakness Day cards online since the 1990s, and this race often rewards horses that can adapt to pace pressure while still finishing strongly in the final furlong.

Pace Makes the Race

This year’s Preakness projects to feature a contested early pace with several runners preferring to race forwardly placed. That dynamic could dramatically influence the outcome.

Horse	Running Style	Key Figure
Taj Mahal	Front Runner	152 Pace Rating
Napoleon Solo	Speed	180 Pace Rating
Pretty Boy Miah	Forwardly Placed	Back-to-back 143 FTRs
Chip Honcho	Pressing Style	132 Final Time Rating
Incredibolt	Closer	152 Final Time Rating

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

1 – Taj Mahal (5-1)

Taj Mahal improved his Digest numbers in each career start and earned a strong 149 Final Time Rating winning the Tesio Stakes. He blasted out to the early lead despite an outside draw, slowed the pace in the middle stages, and then kicked away again.

From the rail, he figures to go forward again, but unlike the Tesio, he probably won’t get away with relaxing through soft interior fractions. With other speed signed on, the pace pressure should be significantly tougher this time.

2 – Ocelli (6-1)

Ocelli is still a maiden after seven starts, but he outran massive odds in the Kentucky Derby when finishing third at 70-1. He rallied effectively into a collapsing pace and briefly threatened in the stretch before flattening late.

The projected setup helps him again because multiple pace horses should ensure legitimate fractions. The concern is whether he can reproduce that Derby effort while still seeking his first win.

Bettor’s Edge

Closers become far more dangerous in Triple Crown races when several speed horses are committed early. Identifying the likely pace flow is often more important than simply comparing final speed figures.

3 – Crupper (30-1)

Crupper wired the Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn and secured his spot here with that victory. His 134 Final Time Rating was respectable, but his 117 Pace Rating suggests he benefited from softer early fractions than he’ll likely encounter in this race.

To stay involved here, he’ll need to show significantly more speed in the opening stages.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest