Video analysis of the $175,000 Forever Together Stakes at Belmont Park on Sunday, September 20, 2026.
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Showing posts with label Horse Racing Free Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Horse Racing Free Picks. Show all posts
Saturday, September 19, 2026
Pennsylvania Derby 2026 Analysis (9-19-26)
The competitive 11-horse field features four graded-stakes winners, and the Grade 1 race offers plenty to analyze from both a pace and class perspective.
Here is a look at the field and the key Digest numbers.
Pennsylvania Derby Field
1. Zihnal (8-1)
Zihnal enters off an impressive victory in the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby at Mountaineer on August 9. He added blinkers and returned to Lasix that day and responded with a 6 1/4-length victory at 1 1/8 miles.
He should be forwardly placed from the inside post, and trainer Jonathan Thomas has been winning at a solid rate with dirt-route starters. John Velazquez takes the mount again.
The concern is whether Zihnal can duplicate that career-best effort while losing Lasix. I liked him in the West Virginia Derby, but this is a significantly tougher test.
2. Iron Honor (5-1)
Iron Honor is a logical top three contender in the Pennsylvania Derby.
The Chad Brown trainee is adding blinkers again and gets Jose Ortiz aboard. He won the Grade 3 Gotham earlier this year and has subsequently placed in two Grade 1 races.
He finished second in the Preakness and third in the Haskell, with the latter coming over a sloppy track.
His recent Today’s Racing Digest ratings include a 141 in the Preakness and a 128 in the Haskell. If he can return to something around that 141 level, he should be extremely competitive.
There are also reasons to forgive some of his other races. He had a difficult trip in the Wood Memorial, drawing post 12 and encountering early trouble before racing wide and finishing seventh. In the Preakness, he tracked wide and made a strong move toward Napoleon Solo before settling for second.
The Haskell was also run over a wet track that may not have suited him.
With the race flow potentially in his favor and a return to a fast track, Iron Honor looks like an attractive horse at his 5-1 morning-line price.
3. Our Moneyman (8-1)
Our Moneyman has been remarkably consistent, entering off back-to-back runner-up finishes in Grade 3 competition.
He earned Today’s Racing Digest final ratings of 137 and 147 in those races, while his pace ratings of 150 and 152 indicate that he should be in a good tactical position.
The Indiana Derby form is particularly interesting. Leading Change won that race and subsequently captured the Grade 1 Travers, while Zihnal, who finished fourth, came back to win the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby.
Our Moneyman should get a good trip from his inner post, and Manny Franco takes the mount for the first time.
He’s difficult to dismiss and could once again find his way into the top three.
4. Igniter (8-1)
Igniter was my top choice in the Ellis Park Derby and delivered with a four-length victory.
He tracked the pace from second and produced a career-best 150 Today’s Racing Digest final number.
The question is whether he can duplicate that effort at 1 1/8 miles against a deeper and more accomplished field. The Ellis Park Derby had only five runners, whereas this race brings together 11 horses and multiple graded winners.
There are also several horses with similar tactical speed who may compete for the same position.
I respect his recent form, but this is a much more difficult assignment.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Floral Park Stakes 2026 Analysis (9-19-26)
Video analysis of the $175,000 Floral Park Stakes on Saturday, September 19.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Cotillion Stakes 2026 Analysis (9-19-26)
The Grade 1, $1 million Cotillion Stakes co-headlines the stakes action at Parx Racing on Saturday, September 19. The race is the 13th on the card and is scheduled to be run at 1 1/16 miles on the main track for three-year-old fillies.
With a field of nine entered, the race features several proven stakes runners, including Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks winner Always a Runner, Grade 2 winner Zany, and a number of fillies coming into the race in good form.
The key question for handicappers is how the pace will develop. Multiple horses possess early speed, which could create a legitimate pace and set the race up for a patient runner.
The Field
1. My Miss Mo (5-1)
Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., My Miss Mo has won her last two starts, including the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan and Grade 3 Monmouth Oaks.
Tyler Gaffalione returns to ride, having previously guided her to victory in the Black-Eyed Susan. My Miss Mo went wire-to-wire in the Monmouth Oaks last time.
The concern is the expected pace. Her two most recent victories came when she was able to take advantage of relatively soft early fractions. Earlier in the season, when she faced faster-paced races in the Grade 2 Davona Dale and Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, she finished second in both.
From the inside post, she may have to go faster early than she did in her last two races.
2. Bodacious Bay (8-1)
Bodacious Bay enters the race with an impressive four-start record: one win and three runner-up finishes.
She was second to My Miss Mo in the Monmouth Oaks last time after chasing that rival through moderate fractions. That was also her first start on a fast dirt surface.
Bodacious Bay now moves into the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn, where Joseph has done well with horses making their first start for him. She should be able to save ground and track the speed from the inside.
A bullet four-furlong workout at Saratoga adds another positive sign. At 8-1 on the morning line, she could be interesting for underneath wagers.
3. Zany (9-2)
Zany is perhaps the biggest question mark in the field.
Earlier in her career, she looked like one of the top Kentucky Oaks contenders. She won her first three starts, including the Grade 2 Demoiselle and Suncoast Stakes, before finishing second in the Grade 1 Ashland.
Her form subsequently declined. She finished sixth as the 5-1 favorite in the Kentucky Oaks and then fourth in the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks.
Zany is cutting back from 1 1/8 miles to 1 1/16 miles, and that could help. John Velazquez rode her last time and gets back aboard here.
Her earlier speed figures show the ability is still there. The question is whether she can return to the form that produced back-to-back 134 final-time ratings in the Suncoast and Ashland.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Friday, September 18, 2026
Churchill Downs 2026 Stakes Analysis (9-19-26)
Race 6 – $300,000 Harrods Creek Stakes
3-year-olds | 7 furlongs | Main Track | Scheduled post: 8:30 p.m. ET
The Harrods Creek Stakes brings together a field of three-year-olds at seven furlongs. There doesn’t appear to be an abundance of early speed, which could give an advantage to horses capable of staying close to the pace.
#1 Gilded Bandit
Gilded Bandit is a $550,000 son of Charlatan trained by Bill Mott. He has two wins from five starts and has already won at Churchill Downs.
His best races have produced final time ratings of 137 and 138, so he has the ability to compete with this group when he is at his best. The problem is that both of those victories came with lasix.
He has struggled in his last two graded-stakes appearances without lasix, losing those races by a combined 20 1/4 lengths. He is also a horse who prefers to make his run from off the pace.
#2 American Man
American Man is one of the most logical horses in the field and figures to be the favorite.
He has two wins and two seconds from five starts and has performed well at Churchill Downs. He also finished second in the Grade 3 Maxfield Stakes at seven furlongs, where he tracked the pace.
His pace figures are particularly impressive, with ratings of 155, 156, 143, 146 and 156 in his recent races. His final-time ratings have also been competitive, including a couple of figures in the high 130s.
He should be forwardly placed again, and the lack of significant early speed could work in his favor.
#3 Stop the Car
Stop the Car is a late-running horse for trainer Brendan Walsh. He has two wins and two thirds from seven starts and has won at Churchill Downs.
He earned a 137 final time rating in the Ellis Park Derby last time out. He also recorded a 131 when winning at Churchill at a one-turn mile.
The shorter seven-furlong distance should be an asset, but his running style is the biggest concern. He needs a pace to develop in front of him, and this race does not appear to contain enough speed to guarantee that scenario.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Wednesday, September 16, 2026
Presque Isle Masters 2026 Video Analysis (9-18-26)
Video analysis of the Grade 2, $300,000 Presque Isle Masters on Friday, September 18.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Tuesday, September 15, 2026
Jockey Club Gold Cup 2026 analysis (9-18-26)
The $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup is scheduled as the fifth race on the card, with a post time of 4:14 p.m. Eastern. The race is for three-year-olds and up and will be contested at 1¼ miles on the main track.
Jockey Club Gold Cup Field
No. 1 — Baeza (9-2)
Baeza could be dangerous if he finally gets a clean start.
The biggest concern with this horse has been his behavior leaving the starting gate. He has hesitated at the start twice this year and was off slowly in another race. Those poor starts may have cost him victories in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes and Grade 1 Stephen Foster.
He was fourth in the Grade 1 Whitney in his most recent start, again having trouble getting away cleanly.
Baeza has plenty of class, however, and his recent speed ratings are competitive. He has recorded strong Today’s Racing Digest numbers throughout his recent races, including 100 Fire Numbers in each of his last three starts.
The move back to 1¼ miles is interesting. He has three starts at the distance with a pair of third-place finishes.
Blinkers are coming off, Junior Alvarado gets back aboard for Bill Mott, and Baeza is coming off a sharp workout at Saratoga on September 12, where he covered five furlongs in 1:01 flat.
If he gets a clean break, he is capable of making an impact. The problem is that he hasn’t won since taking the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby as a sophomore last September, and he was no match for Forever Young in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last fall.
No. 2 — Stars and Stripes (15-1)
Stars and Stripes is another Bill Mott trainee and brings plenty of stamina to the race.
He is 5-for-9 lifetime with a second and third-place finish and has already demonstrated that longer distances are well within his capabilities.
He won the Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes at 1 3/16 miles and most recently stretched out to 1¾ miles, winning the Birdstone Stakes by a nose.
The concern here is the drastic cutback in distance.
Stars and Stripes was able to stalk the pace in the Birdstone, but the fractions were slow. It remains to be seen whether he will have enough speed to keep up with this group at 1¼ miles.
He faced Friday’s rival Phileas Fogg in the Grade 2 Suburban and was beaten 17 lengths, although Stars and Stripes subsequently came back to win the Birdstone.
He has the stamina, but the class and pace questions make him more attractive underneath than on top.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Saturday, September 12, 2026
Iroquois Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (9-12-26)
Video analysis of the Grade 3, $300,000 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs (9-12-26). This is the first Kentucky Derby 2027 points race.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Woodbine Mile 2026 Analysis (9-12-26)
Using past-performance data from the Complete Digest, I break down the field, examine the numbers, and identify the contenders.
Woodbine Mile Field
1. Deterministic (2-1)
Deterministic enters the Woodbine Mile in excellent form for trainer Miguel Clement and jockey Kendrick Carmouche.
The 5-year-old is 10-for-16 in his career with three seconds and a third-place finish. He is also 3-for-3 this year and already owns multiple Grade 1 victories, including the Fourstardave at Saratoga on Aug. 8.
Deterministic figures to be forwardly placed from the inside post. His ability to establish a good cruising speed could be an important asset, particularly if he gets an uncontested lead.
However, this one-turn mile presents a slightly different challenge. Much of Deterministic’s success has come at longer distances, including a mile and an eighth and a mile and three-sixteenths.
His strength is his determination and ability to keep fighting once he reaches the stretch. The concern is whether he can outkick horses with a stronger closing burst.
2. Gas Me Up (12-1)
Gas Me Up is looking to repeat his successful pattern from last year.
He won the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes last year before finishing third in the Woodbine Mile. He has now won the King Edward again, taking this year’s renewal by a nose.
The horse has six starts at Woodbine, with four victories and a third-place finish, and he is a three-time winner at one mile.
His 146 final-time rating in the King Edward was solid, but this year’s Woodbine Mile appears deeper. At 12-1 on the morning line, however, he could be interesting for the exotics.
3. Notable Speech (1-1)
Notable Speech is the morning-line favorite and strictly the horse to beat.
The Godolphin runner is trained by Charles Appleby and will be ridden by William Buick, who regularly rides the horse.
Notable Speech has won nine of 18 career starts and has earned nearly $4 million. He won this race last year before adding another major victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.
He has also won two Group 1 races overseas this year, further establishing his credentials at the highest level.
Most importantly, Notable Speech owns the strongest closing kick in this field. That could prove decisive if Deterministic is in front turning for home.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Pocahontas Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (9-12-26)
Video analysis of the Grade 3, $300,000 Pocahontas Stakes at Churchill Downs (9-12-26). This is the first Kentucky Oaks 2027 points race.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Super Derby 2026 Video Analysis (9-12-26)
Video analysis of the $250,000 Super Derby at Louisiana Downs (9-12-26).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Wednesday, September 9, 2026
Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes Analysis (9-9-26)
Kentucky Downs presents a unique challenge for young horses. Its undulating turf course can be difficult to navigate, and some horses handle the course considerably better than others. With several runners stretching out in distance, switching surfaces, or making their Kentucky Downs debuts, local experience could be especially important in this race.
The following analysis uses past performance data from Today’s Racing Digest’s Complete Digest.
Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes Field
#1 Sir Hansen (8-1)
Sir Hansen won his debut at Ellis Park going one mile on good turf, tracking the pace before finishing in a dead heat for the victory. He earned a 107 final-time rating and finished with a strong 24.3-second final fraction.
Flavien Prat takes over in the saddle, which could be a significant positive. From the inside post, Sir Hansen should have an opportunity to save ground while staying reasonably close to the pace.
He looks like a legitimate contender if he can improve his speed figures in his second start.
#2 Caribbean Warrior (15-1)
Caribbean Warrior improved when he stretched out and switched to turf in his second career start at Ellis Park. He went wire to wire at one mile and earned a 107 final-time rating.
His 85 Fire Number is the one of the best in the field, and he figures to be involved in the pace again.
The presence of a next-out winner among the horses he defeated last time is another positive.
#3 Agate (12-1)
Agate is one of the more interesting horses in the race.
After debuting at five furlongs on turf, he stretched out to one mile at Ellis Park and responded with a convincing victory. He was involved throughout the race, then kicked away to win by more than four lengths.
His final-time rating improved from 92 to 113, while his pace rating climbed to 117. He also finished with a strong 24.4-second final fraction.
Agate has already shown that he can handle the mile, and another improvement could put him right in the mix.
#4 Otherworldly (12-1)
Otherworldly ships in from Ireland for trainer Joseph O’Brien and will have John Velazquez aboard.
He has raced three times in turf sprints overseas, finishing second twice. His most recent effort came at seven furlongs on yielding turf, where he finished second in a 15-horse field.
The lack of U.S. past-performance figures makes him more difficult to evaluate, but his overseas form suggests he deserves some respect. At a morning-line price of 12-1, he could offer value underneath.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Dueling Grounds Oaks 2026 Analysis (9-9-26)
The past-performance information used in this analysis is provided by Today’s Racing Digest, whose Complete Digest product includes the speed, pace, and past-performance information used here.
The Dueling Grounds Oaks Field
1. Bless Her (15-1)
Bless Her is trained by Graham Motion and will have John Velazquez aboard. She was fourth of eight in the Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks last time out at 14-1.
She is 2-for-7 overall, with a second and a third in addition to her two victories. One important consideration is her lasix history: her two wins and a nose defeat came when she was racing with lasix. She will not have lasix for this race.
Bless Her has enough tactical speed to potentially secure a forward position, particularly because this field doesn’t contain a confirmed front-runner.
2. Charm of Venice (20-1)
Charm of Venice is 20-1 on the morning line and will make her first start for trainer Brendan Walsh. Brian Hernandez Jr. gets the mount.
She won at 1 5/16 miles on soft turf in Ireland on June 20. The biggest question is where she fits from a class standpoint against this American group.
Walsh has had solid results with horses shipping in from overseas, so this is a horse worth keeping an eye on despite the lack of U.S. speed-figure data.
3. Haute Diva (10-1)
Haute Diva is trained by Patrick Biancone. She was sixth in the Grade 2 Beverly D. at Colonial Downs last time out, where she faced older fillies and mares.
That class drop back into a race restricted to three-year-olds could help. She earned a 131 final-time rating in that Beverly D. effort and previously posted a 134 on an all-weather surface in a stakes race.
She may need to improve slightly to win here, but the return to her own age group is encouraging.
4. Turner’s Charm (10-1)
Turner’s Charm is another Brendan Walsh trainee, with Ben Curtis returning to ride.
She missed by just a head in the Pucker Up Stakes at Ellis Park on August 2, rallying from off the pace in a 1 1/8-mile turf race. She earned a 135 final-time rating in that effort, an improvement over her previous numbers.
Her past performances suggest that longer distances have brought out her best. Her three longest races have also been her three best efforts, including victories at 1 1/16 miles and the strong second-place finish at 1 1/8 miles.
That makes the 1 5/16-mile distance particularly interesting.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Monday, September 7, 2026
Del Mar Closing Day Stakes Analysis (9-7-26)
Using the past-performance data from Today’s Racing Digest’s Complete Digest, here’s a look at both stakes races, including projected Fire Numbers, CPR Ratings, Fast Figs, and Final Time Ratings.
Race 6 – I’m Smokin’ Stakes
The I’m Smokin’ Stakes is for 2-year-olds bred in California and will be contested at six furlongs on Del Mar’s main track.
The distance has generally favored speed horses. In 21 races at six furlongs, front-runners have won 57% of the time, while pressers have accounted for nearly 29% of the victories. Midpack runners have won about 9.5% and horses coming from farther back less than 5%.
That makes this a particularly important race for horses with tactical or early speed.
The Field
- #1 Little King (6-1) – Maiden after two starts
- #2 Prime Splash (20-1) – Expected to show speed
- #3 Cupid Cowboy (8-1) – Maiden winner at 52-1 odds
- #4 Fumano’s Fire (15-1) – Expected to show speed
- #5 Empire of Ash (6-1) – Maiden second-time starter
- #6 Net Par (8-5) – Graduation Stakes winner
- #7 Early Encore (8-5) – Third in the Graduation Stakes
Speed and Pace Forecasts
The Today’s Racing Digest speed-and-pace forecast gives Little King some of the strongest individual numbers in the field.
Little King earned an 85 Fire Number in his debut, indicating strong speed throughout that race. He also recorded a 129 CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating) in that first start, along with a 129 Final Time Rating.
However, his numbers dropped considerably in his second race. His Final Time Rating fell to 93, meaning the key question is whether he can return to the level he demonstrated in his debut.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Saratoga Stakes Analysis for Monday (9-7-26)
Here’s a look at the key contenders in each race and their Today’s Racing Digest numbers.
Race 10 — $200,000 Funny Cide Stakes
The Funny Cide Stakes brings together a group of promising New York-bred 2-year-olds.
#1 Professor Plum (6-1)
Professor Plum earned a 99 final-time rating when rallying to win his debut at 5 1/2 furlongs at Saratoga on July 12. The runner-up from that race returned to win next time out, which gives the effort some added credibility.
Professor Plum figures to save ground behind the speed and could make a late run for a share. However, he’ll need to improve on that 99 rating to beat some of the faster horses in this field.
#2 Fullcup (2-1)
Fullcup looked impressive winning his debut at Saratoga on July 31. He earned a 114 final-time rating and a 129 pace rating, winning by more than four lengths.The biggest question this time is his inside post. In his debut, Fullcup was able to track outside before running down the competition. From post two, he’ll have to deal with a potentially different trip and may have to race closer to the rail.
If Junior Alvarado can work him into the clear, Fullcup has enough ability to be a major factor.
#3 Minefield (5-2)
Minefield is still a maiden, but he ran well enough in his debut to make him a serious contender here.
He finished second in that first start while earning a 119 final-time rating and a 134 pace rating. Those numbers put him right in the mix with the more experienced winners in this field.
Minefield has enough tactical speed to work out a good trip, and if he improves in his second start, he could turn the tables on one of the horses who has already beaten him (Scramjet).
#4 D I Wire (8-1)
D I Wire won his July 12 maiden special weight at Saratoga by more than a length. He earned a 95 final-time rating along with a 137 pace rating.
The pace figure is encouraging, but the final-time rating suggests he’ll need significant improvement to compete with the top contenders here.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Sunday, September 6, 2026
Saratoga Stakes Analysis for Sunday (9-6-26)
Saratoga Race Course is heading into the final days of its summer meet, and Sunday, September 6, features three stakes races worth watching. In this analysis, I’ll take a closer look at the Grade 3 Prioress Stakes, the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes, and the Disco Partner Stakes.
Race 4 — Grade 3 Prioress Stakes
The fourth race on Sunday is the Grade 3 Prioress Stakes, a six-furlong dirt sprint for three-year-old fillies.
#1 Mythical (9-2)
Mythical should show speed from the inside post under Edgar Zayas. She has been unable to find the winner’s circle in her last three starts, all at Saratoga.
She has shown considerably better numbers in the past, however. Going back to her Gulfstream Park form, she posted final-time ratings of 131 and 132, accompanied by pace ratings of 140 and 144. If she can rediscover that form, she could be competitive from the inside.
#2 Vekoma’s Diva (12-1)
Vekoma’s Diva added blinkers last time and finished second in a six-furlong race at Saratoga. She has three starts and three top-three finishes, so there is still upside here, but this is a significantly tougher spot.
Her 116 final-time rating last time isn’t fast enough on paper to make her a major win contender.
#3 Mashallah (7-5)
Mashallah looks like one of the main horses to beat.
She has won three of four career starts, and all three victories have been impressive. She won her six-furlong debut at Keeneland before scoring back-to-back victories at Saratoga and Colonial Downs.
Her most recent victory came in a seven-furlong stakes race at Colonial Downs, where she won by 5½ lengths while earning a 126 final-time rating. Prior to that, she won at Saratoga with a 138 final-time rating.
Her pace ratings of 144 and 162 are also impressive. Manny Franco will ride for trainer Brendan Walsh.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Friday, September 4, 2026
With Anticipation + Spinaway Stakes Analysis (9-5-26)
Saratoga Race Course is entering closing week, and Saturday, September 5 features two graded stakes races worth a close look. In this article, I’ll analyze the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes for 2-year-olds on the turf and the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes for 2-year-old fillies on the main track.
Race 2 — Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes
The second race is the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes, a $225,000 event for 2-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on Saratoga’s inner turf course.
There are just five horses in the field, with Todd Pletcher sending out three of them.
The Field
1. Howard’s Hope (8-1)
Howard’s Hope comes off a nice debut victory at Saratoga, winning a 1 1/16-mile turf maiden special weight race by a length. He earned a 104 final-time rating in that August 6 victory and drew the inside post for this race. Jose Lezcano should be able to save ground while allowing him to settle off the pace.
2. Liam’s Law (5-2)
Liam’s Law earned a 90 final-time rating in his debut at 5 1/2 furlongs in the slop before improving dramatically in his second start. He wired a 1 1/16-mile turf race at Saratoga on July 12, earning a 122 final-time rating and 119 pace rating.
He could be the controlling speed in this short field. Ricardo Santana Jr. takes over, and he is 3-for-12 riding for Pletcher.
3. High Official (7-5)
Flavien Prat sticks with Todd Pletcher’s Not This Time colt after guiding him to a two-length victory in his July 26 debut. The colt tracked the pace before making his move and earned a 122 final-time rating.
He’s the morning-line favorite and certainly has the numbers to win this race.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
Saratoga Stakes Video Analysis (9-4-26)
Video analysis of the P. G. Johnson Stakes and Seeking the Ante Stakes at Saratoga (9-4-26).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Thursday, September 3, 2026
Bernard Baruch Stakes 2026 Video Analysis (9-3-26)
Video analysis of the $200,000 Bernard Baruch Stakes at Saratoga (9-3-26).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Sunday, August 30, 2026
Del Mar Pick 6 Carryover Analysis (8-30-26)
The Del Mar Pick Six sequence on Sunday, August 30 features a two-day carryover of more than $192,000, making the sequence especially attractive for players looking to take a shot at a potentially lucrative payoff.
Below is my race-by-race analysis of the Pick Six, including my top contenders, horses I would use underneath, and my preferred selections for keeping the ticket manageable.
The past-performance information used for this analysis is from Sunday’s Complete Digest.
Race 5 — Maiden Special Weight
California-bred 2-year-old fillies | 6 furlongs | 11 horses
The opening leg of the Pick Six is a competitive maiden special weight event.
According to the Today’s Racing Digest speed and pace forecasts, No. 3 Sauced Up has the best projected numbers across the board, including the Fire Number, CPR, pace, final time, closing fraction and Fast Fig. However, she has already made four starts and has hit the board in each one. I’m not convinced there’s much improvement left to come, particularly with the switch back to the main track.
My top four contenders are:
- No. 1 Not So Merry Mary
- No. 6 Take Revenge
- No. 8 Her Strut
- No. 9 Sono Veloce
For a larger Pick Six ticket, all four are worth considering. However, I’m going to narrow the race down to two horses.
Top Choice: No. 8 Her Strut
Her Strut has made two career starts. She encountered trouble in her debut but rallied to finish third, then raced wide and finished fourth in her second start.
I’m willing to give her another chance if she can get a cleaner trip.
Antonio Fresu takes over for trainer George Papaprodromou, and the jockey and trainer have been successful together. If Her Strut gets a better trip this time, I think she has a legitimate chance to graduate.
Second Choice: No. 1 Not So Merry Mary
Not So Merry Mary makes her second career start after debuting in a five-furlong turf race. She didn’t hit the board but took some money and gained valuable experience.
The move to the main track could produce improvement for trainer Tim Yakteen, who has been winning at a solid rate with dirt sprint starters. Kazushi Kimura returns to ride.
Pick Six: 1, 8
Race 6 — $32,000 Claiming
5 furlongs on turf | 11 horses
The second leg is a five-furlong turf sprint.
The recent track profile is interesting. Over the last 27 races at this distance, front runners have won approximately 18.5% of the time, while pressers and mid-pack runners have been winning at much higher rates.
That makes running style an important consideration.
The Today’s Racing Digest projections give No. 9 Code Duello the best numbers, including an 88 Fire Number, 128 CPR, 124 Fast Fig and 134 final time rating.
My primary contenders are:
- No. 4 Daniel’s Magic
- No. 8 Gregory’s Pride
- No. 9 Code Duello
I also think No. 1 Agency and No. 2 Harcyn could hit the board and are worth considering for exotic wagers.
Top Choice: No. 4 Daniel’s Magic
Daniel’s Magic is a presser, which fits the recent profile of this turf sprint distance.
He ran well when returning to turf at five furlongs last time, finishing second in a $25,000 claiming event. He also gets a better post position this time, moving from post eight in a nine-horse field to post four.
Trainer Craig Dollase has a solid win percentage with turf sprinters, and Kazushi Kimura takes the mount.
The tactical speed and middle post should allow Daniel’s Magic to sit behind the leaders and potentially get first run on the deeper closers.
Second Choice: No. 9 Code Duello
Code Duello owns the strongest projected numbers in the race and comes into the event in good form.
He’s capable of either setting the pace or tracking it, which gives him some versatility. If he reproduces his recent form, he should be right there.
Pick Six: 4, 9
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
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