Del Mar Closing Day Stakes Analysis (9-7-26)

Del Mar’s summer meet comes to a close on Monday, September 7, with a pair of stakes races on the 11-race program. The card features the I’m Smokin’ Stakes for California-bred 2-year-olds and the Grade 2 John C. Mabee Stakes for fillies and mares.

Using the past-performance data from Today’s Racing Digest’s Complete Digest, here’s a look at both stakes races, including projected Fire Numbers, CPR Ratings, Fast Figs, and Final Time Ratings.

Race 6 – I’m Smokin’ Stakes

The I’m Smokin’ Stakes is for 2-year-olds bred in California and will be contested at six furlongs on Del Mar’s main track.

The distance has generally favored speed horses. In 21 races at six furlongs, front-runners have won 57% of the time, while pressers have accounted for nearly 29% of the victories. Midpack runners have won about 9.5% and horses coming from farther back less than 5%.

That makes this a particularly important race for horses with tactical or early speed.

The Field

• #1 Little King (6-1) – Maiden after two starts
• #2 Prime Splash (20-1) – Expected to show speed
• #3 Cupid Cowboy (8-1) – Maiden winner at 52-1 odds
• #4 Fumano’s Fire (15-1) – Expected to show speed
• #5 Empire of Ash (6-1) – Maiden second-time starter
• #6 Net Par (8-5) – Graduation Stakes winner
• #7 Early Encore (8-5) – Third in the Graduation Stakes

Speed and Pace Forecasts

The Today’s Racing Digest speed-and-pace forecast gives Little King some of the strongest individual numbers in the field.

Little King earned an 85 Fire Number in his debut, indicating strong speed throughout that race. He also recorded a 129 CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating) in that first start, along with a 129 Final Time Rating.

However, his numbers dropped considerably in his second race. His Final Time Rating fell to 93, meaning the key question is whether he can return to the level he demonstrated in his debut.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest