Showing posts with label Del Mar Racing. Show all posts

Monday, September 7, 2026

Del Mar Closing Day Stakes Analysis (9-7-26)

Del Mar’s summer meet comes to a close on Monday, September 7, with a pair of stakes races on the 11-race program. The card features the I’m Smokin’ Stakes for California-bred 2-year-olds and the Grade 2 John C. Mabee Stakes for fillies and mares.

Using the past-performance data from Today’s Racing Digest’s Complete Digest, here’s a look at both stakes races, including projected Fire Numbers, CPR Ratings, Fast Figs, and Final Time Ratings.

Race 6 – I’m Smokin’ Stakes

The I’m Smokin’ Stakes is for 2-year-olds bred in California and will be contested at six furlongs on Del Mar’s main track.

The distance has generally favored speed horses. In 21 races at six furlongs, front-runners have won 57% of the time, while pressers have accounted for nearly 29% of the victories. Midpack runners have won about 9.5% and horses coming from farther back less than 5%.

That makes this a particularly important race for horses with tactical or early speed.

The Field

#1 Little King (6-1) – Maiden after two starts
#2 Prime Splash (20-1) – Expected to show speed
#3 Cupid Cowboy (8-1) – Maiden winner at 52-1 odds
#4 Fumano’s Fire (15-1) – Expected to show speed
#5 Empire of Ash (6-1) – Maiden second-time starter
#6 Net Par (8-5) – Graduation Stakes winner
#7 Early Encore (8-5) – Third in the Graduation Stakes

Speed and Pace Forecasts

The Today’s Racing Digest speed-and-pace forecast gives Little King some of the strongest individual numbers in the field.

Little King earned an 85 Fire Number in his debut, indicating strong speed throughout that race. He also recorded a 129 CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating) in that first start, along with a 129 Final Time Rating.

However, his numbers dropped considerably in his second race. His Final Time Rating fell to 93, meaning the key question is whether he can return to the level he demonstrated in his debut.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Sunday, August 30, 2026

Del Mar Pick 6 Carryover Analysis (8-30-26)

The Del Mar Pick Six sequence on Sunday, August 30 features a two-day carryover of more than $192,000, making the sequence especially attractive for players looking to take a shot at a potentially lucrative payoff.

Below is my race-by-race analysis of the Pick Six, including my top contenders, horses I would use underneath, and my preferred selections for keeping the ticket manageable.

The past-performance information used for this analysis is from Sunday’s Complete Digest.

Race 5 — Maiden Special Weight

California-bred 2-year-old fillies | 6 furlongs | 11 horses

The opening leg of the Pick Six is a competitive maiden special weight event.

According to the Today’s Racing Digest speed and pace forecasts, No. 3 Sauced Up has the best projected numbers across the board, including the Fire Number, CPR, pace, final time, closing fraction and Fast Fig. However, she has already made four starts and has hit the board in each one. I’m not convinced there’s much improvement left to come, particularly with the switch back to the main track.

My top four contenders are:

No. 1 Not So Merry Mary
No. 6 Take Revenge
No. 8 Her Strut
No. 9 Sono Veloce

For a larger Pick Six ticket, all four are worth considering. However, I’m going to narrow the race down to two horses.

Top Choice: No. 8 Her Strut

Her Strut has made two career starts. She encountered trouble in her debut but rallied to finish third, then raced wide and finished fourth in her second start.

I’m willing to give her another chance if she can get a cleaner trip.

Antonio Fresu takes over for trainer George Papaprodromou, and the jockey and trainer have been successful together. If Her Strut gets a better trip this time, I think she has a legitimate chance to graduate.

Second Choice: No. 1 Not So Merry Mary

Not So Merry Mary makes her second career start after debuting in a five-furlong turf race. She didn’t hit the board but took some money and gained valuable experience.

The move to the main track could produce improvement for trainer Tim Yakteen, who has been winning at a solid rate with dirt sprint starters. Kazushi Kimura returns to ride.

Pick Six: 1, 8

Race 6 — $32,000 Claiming

5 furlongs on turf | 11 horses

The second leg is a five-furlong turf sprint.

The recent track profile is interesting. Over the last 27 races at this distance, front runners have won approximately 18.5% of the time, while pressers and mid-pack runners have been winning at much higher rates.

That makes running style an important consideration.

The Today’s Racing Digest projections give No. 9 Code Duello the best numbers, including an 88 Fire Number, 128 CPR, 124 Fast Fig and 134 final time rating.

My primary contenders are:

No. 4 Daniel’s Magic
No. 8 Gregory’s Pride
No. 9 Code Duello

I also think No. 1 Agency and No. 2 Harcyn could hit the board and are worth considering for exotic wagers.

Top Choice: No. 4 Daniel’s Magic

Daniel’s Magic is a presser, which fits the recent profile of this turf sprint distance.

He ran well when returning to turf at five furlongs last time, finishing second in a $25,000 claiming event. He also gets a better post position this time, moving from post eight in a nine-horse field to post four.

Trainer Craig Dollase has a solid win percentage with turf sprinters, and Kazushi Kimura takes the mount.

The tactical speed and middle post should allow Daniel’s Magic to sit behind the leaders and potentially get first run on the deeper closers.

Second Choice: No. 9 Code Duello

Code Duello owns the strongest projected numbers in the race and comes into the event in good form.

He’s capable of either setting the pace or tracking it, which gives him some versatility. If he reproduces his recent form, he should be right there.

Pick Six: 4, 9

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Saturday, August 22, 2026

Pacific Classic 2026 Analysis (8-22-26)

The Grade 1 Pacific Classic at Del Mar is the marquee event on Saturday, August 22, with a $1 million purse and a field of 11 horses set to travel 1¼ miles on the main track. The race is scheduled as the 10th race, with a post time of 9:43 p.m. Eastern.

Pacific Classic Analysis

1. Om N Joy (20-1)

Om N Joy is a four-year-old filly taking on males, but she has plenty of experience at Del Mar. In five starts at the track, she has two wins, a second and two thirds.

She won the Grade 2 Santa Margarita at Santa Anita on May 30 after chasing a wicked 45-second opening half-mile pace. Last time out, she rallied from off the pace to finish second, beaten only a half-length, in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar.

This will be her first attempt at 1¼ miles. She should save ground behind the speed and could pick up a minor award if the pace gets hot.

2. Forged Steel (5-1)

Forged Steel will be ridden by Edwin Gonzalez for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.

He won the Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup at 1¼ miles on May 25, going wire to wire by more than nine lengths. However, that victory came in a five-horse field that did not appear particularly deep.

He subsequently finished fifth, beaten a dozen lengths, in the Grade 2 Suburban.

The major question is whether he can sustain his speed with several other horses likely to be involved early.

3. Finger (8-1)

Finger is an intriguing international shipper coming in from Japan. The three-year-old son of Gun Runner has been remarkably consistent, with four wins and four runner-up finishes from eight starts.

He is four-for-five this year with a second this year and enters off victories in his last two starts, including the Tokyo Derby at 1¼ miles in a 16-horse field.

The distance should not be an issue, and from post three he figures to be fairly close to the pace. The biggest question is how he will handle his first start in the United States against older horses.

4. Subsanador (12-1)

Subsanador is 12-1 on the morning line for trainer Richard Mandella, with Mike Smith aboard.

The seven-year-old has struggled to find his best form this year, finishing fourth and getting beaten by eight, eight and 37 lengths in his three starts.

He is winless in three starts at Del Mar, although he does have a second at this distance. Back-to-back bullet workouts at Del Mar provide some reason for optimism, but he will need a major turnaround.

5. Malarchuk (10-1)

Malarchuk is another horse with the ability to be forwardly placed.

The jockey-trainer combination of Umberto Rispoli and Michael McCarthy has performed well, winning 27% of the time while producing a positive return on investment.

He finished second, beaten more than nine lengths by Forged Steel, in the Hollywood Gold Cup. He prefers to race near the front, which could become an issue if several other speed horses push the pace.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Friday, July 31, 2026

Clement L. Hirsch Stakes Analysis (8-1-26)

The Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch Stakes is the feature race at Del Mar on Saturday, August 1 with a talented field of fillies and mares competing for a $400,000 purse at 1 1/16 miles on the main track.

With multiple early-pressing types entered, the fractions should be honest, creating opportunities for stalkers and late runners. Here’s a horse-by-horse look at the field.

Pace Outlook

Four horses possess enough early speed to make this an honest race from a race flow standpoint.

Simply Joking, Seismic Beauty, A Thousand Miles, and Euromia all figure to be involved during the opening stages. Whether they engage in a prolonged battle—or one horse clears without pressure—will likely determine the final outcome.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

#1 Chasten (4-1)

Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux

Chasten enters this race in outstanding form after dominating a listed stakes at Delaware Park by open lengths. She has improved significantly this season, posting some of the best speed figures of her career while winning two stakes races.

Although both victories came in listed company rather than graded stakes, she previously held her own against much tougher competition when racing wide early and splitting a 10-horse field in a Grade 1 at Churchill Downs. She didn’t threaten the winner that afternoon, but she wasn’t disgraced against a deep cast.

The rail draw should allow Florent Geroux to secure a ground-saving trip behind the early leaders. If a fast pace develops, Chasten might get first run turning for home.

#2 Hey Jesse (12-1)

Trainer: Sean McCarthy
Jockey: Antonio Fresu

Hey Jesse is somewhat of a wildcard.

Most of her success has come on turf, where she’s won three races, but she did win her lone dirt start. She exits a fifth-place finish in the Possibly Perfect Stakes on grass and now returns to the main track.

Her closing style could benefit if the early leaders soften each other up, but she’ll likely need significant pace help to threaten this field.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Sunday, July 26, 2026

Eddie Read Stakes 2026 Analysis (7-26-26)

The Grade 2 Eddie Read Stakes is the feature race at Del Mar on Sunday, July 26, with a $250,000 purse for three-year-olds and up going 1 1/8 miles on the turf course.

Race Overview

Race: Grade 2 Eddie Read Stakes
Track: Del Mar
Distance: 1 1/8 miles (turf)
Purse: $250,000
Post Time: 9:10 p.m. ET

Pace Analysis

Cabo Spirit projects as the lone confirmed front-runner and could find himself on an uncontested lead under Mike Smith.

Post time favorite Formidable Man can be placed anywhere and figures to chase moderate fractions.

Mondego is capable of working out a forwardly placed trip from an inner post.

Horse-by-Horse Analysis

#1 Astronomer (20-1)

Astronomer has not won a race since the Golden Mile at Del Mar in 2021 and his winless streak stands at 20 races.

He is capable of getting into a forward position from the inside post but he probably won’t be around at the end.

#2 Mondego (8-1)

Mondego enters off a victory in the Grade 2 Charles Whittingham (May 2), and he captured the Grade 3 San Marcos in February.

Although those wins came at longer distances, his positional speed gives him a chance to make an impact if he handles the cutback.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Saturday, July 25, 2026

Bing Crosby Stakes 2026 Analysis (7-25-26)

The Grade 1 Bing Crosby Stakes headlines Saturday’s card at Del Mar, serving as Race 10 with a $400,000 purse for three-year-olds and up. The six-furlong sprint has attracted a talented and evenly matched field, making it one of the most competitive races of the weekend.

Race Overview

Race 10: Bing Crosby Stakes (Grade 1)
Track: Del Mar
Distance: 6 furlongs
Purse: $400,000
Post Time: 9:40 p.m. ET

Pace Projection

The Bing Crosby should feature an aggressive early pace.

Maximum Bourbon, Listenupshance, Cornucopian, and Mad House all possess early speed, while Stronghold figures to settle just behind the leaders in a stalking position.

If the pace becomes contested, horses like Dr. Venkman and Moonlight could find themselves closing into a tiring field. Still, the tactical runners appear to hold the advantage.

Field Analysis

#1 Maximum Bourbon (7-2)

Maximum Bourbon enters in excellent form after an impressive victory as my top choice in the St. Matthews Stakes at Churchill Downs. His speed figures have steadily improved with each recent start, and he owns four wins from six career races.

The primary concern is the rail draw. From the inside post, he’ll likely need to leave the gate quickly to secure position against several other speed horses. While talented enough to contend, the trip could prove more difficult than it was in his most recent victory.

#2 Listenupshance (8-1)

Listenupshance has been competitive in graded company throughout the season. He finished second in the Grade 3 San Carlos behind Cornucopian before recording another solid effort in the Grade 3 True North at Saratoga.

He has enough early speed to stay involved from the outset and could be a factor if he secures a favorable stalking trip.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Del Mar Analysis & Pick 6 Carryover (7-23-26)

Del Mar’s Thursday card features eight competitive races and an attractive Pick 6 carryover beginning in Race 3. After reviewing the fields, pace scenarios, class levels, and projected speed figures, here are my race-by-race selections and betting thoughts.

Race 1 – $16,000 Claiming (5½ Furlongs)

The morning-line favorite SendIt Mo owns strong projected speed figures, but the drop from a $32,000 claim to $16,000 in just his second start for the new barn raises concerns.

Top Pick: #3 Uecker (4-1)

Uecker drops in class while switching back to dirt. His turf speed figures compare favorably with this field, and he previously ran well over the main track, finishing a close second with a competitive speed figure. If he transfers his turf form to dirt, he offers solid value.

Contenders

#3 Uecker
#2 SendIt Mo
#1 Joker Went Wild

Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight (5 Furlongs Turf)

Top Pick: #8 Captain Shreve (7-2)

Captain Shreve has faced tougher competition on dirt and now makes an intriguing move to the turf course. George Papaprodromou’s sophomore gelding reunites with jockey Umberto Rispoli, who guided him to a runner-up finish in his debut late last year. If he handles the surface switch, he should be a major player.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Thursday, July 16, 2026

San Diego Handicap 2026 Video Picks (7-18-26)

Video analysis of the Grade 2, $300,000 San Diego Handicap at Del Mar (7-18-26).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.

Tuesday, December 2, 2025

Race Competition Levels: Today's Racing Digest Video Series

My latest how to use Today's Racing Digest video focuses on Race Competition Levels (class ratings) and how to best use them in your daily handicapping.

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.