The $1 million Jockey Club Gold Cup is scheduled as the fifth race on the card, with a post time of 4:14 p.m. Eastern. The race is for three-year-olds and up and will be contested at 1¼ miles on the main track.
Jockey Club Gold Cup Field
No. 1 — Baeza (9-2)
Baeza could be dangerous if he finally gets a clean start.
The biggest concern with this horse has been his behavior leaving the starting gate. He has hesitated at the start twice this year and was off slowly in another race. Those poor starts may have cost him victories in the Grade 2 Alysheba Stakes and Grade 1 Stephen Foster.
He was fourth in the Grade 1 Whitney in his most recent start, again having trouble getting away cleanly.
Baeza has plenty of class, however, and his recent speed ratings are competitive. He has recorded strong Today’s Racing Digest numbers throughout his recent races, including 100 Fire Numbers in each of his last three starts.
The move back to 1¼ miles is interesting. He has three starts at the distance with a pair of third-place finishes.
Blinkers are coming off, Junior Alvarado gets back aboard for Bill Mott, and Baeza is coming off a sharp workout at Saratoga on September 12, where he covered five furlongs in 1:01 flat.
If he gets a clean break, he is capable of making an impact. The problem is that he hasn’t won since taking the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby as a sophomore last September, and he was no match for Forever Young in the Breeders’ Cup Classic last fall.
No. 2 — Stars and Stripes (15-1)
Stars and Stripes is another Bill Mott trainee and brings plenty of stamina to the race.
He is 5-for-9 lifetime with a second and third-place finish and has already demonstrated that longer distances are well within his capabilities.
He won the Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes at 1 3/16 miles and most recently stretched out to 1¾ miles, winning the Birdstone Stakes by a nose.
The concern here is the drastic cutback in distance.
Stars and Stripes was able to stalk the pace in the Birdstone, but the fractions were slow. It remains to be seen whether he will have enough speed to keep up with this group at 1¼ miles.
He faced Friday’s rival Phileas Fogg in the Grade 2 Suburban and was beaten 17 lengths, although Stars and Stripes subsequently came back to win the Birdstone.
He has the stamina, but the class and pace questions make him more attractive underneath than on top.
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