Churchill Downs 2026 Stakes Analysis (9-19-26)

Saturday night’s card at Churchill Downs features three interesting stakes races. Here’s a look at the $300,000 Harrods Creek Stakes, the Grade 3, $300,000 Dogwood Stakes, and the $200,000 Seneca Overnight Stakes.

Race 6 – $300,000 Harrods Creek Stakes

3-year-olds | 7 furlongs | Main Track | Scheduled post: 8:30 p.m. ET

The Harrods Creek Stakes brings together a field of three-year-olds at seven furlongs. There doesn’t appear to be an abundance of early speed, which could give an advantage to horses capable of staying close to the pace.

#1 Gilded Bandit

Gilded Bandit is a $550,000 son of Charlatan trained by Bill Mott. He has two wins from five starts and has already won at Churchill Downs.

His best races have produced final time ratings of 137 and 138, so he has the ability to compete with this group when he is at his best. The problem is that both of those victories came with lasix.

He has struggled in his last two graded-stakes appearances without lasix, losing those races by a combined 20 1/4 lengths. He is also a horse who prefers to make his run from off the pace.

#2 American Man

American Man is one of the most logical horses in the field and figures to be the favorite.

He has two wins and two seconds from five starts and has performed well at Churchill Downs. He also finished second in the Grade 3 Maxfield Stakes at seven furlongs, where he tracked the pace.

His pace figures are particularly impressive, with ratings of 155, 156, 143, 146 and 156 in his recent races. His final-time ratings have also been competitive, including a couple of figures in the high 130s.

He should be forwardly placed again, and the lack of significant early speed could work in his favor.

#3 Stop the Car

Stop the Car is a late-running horse for trainer Brendan Walsh. He has two wins and two thirds from seven starts and has won at Churchill Downs.

He earned a 137 final time rating in the Ellis Park Derby last time out. He also recorded a 131 when winning at Churchill at a one-turn mile.

The shorter seven-furlong distance should be an asset, but his running style is the biggest concern. He needs a pace to develop in front of him, and this race does not appear to contain enough speed to guarantee that scenario.

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