Woodbine Mile 2026 Analysis (9-12-26)

The 2026 Woodbine Mile is set for Saturday, September 12 at Woodbine, with the Grade 1 event carrying a $1 million purse. The race is for 3-year-olds and up and will be contested at one mile on the turf, with a scheduled post time of 5:20 p.m. Eastern.

Using past-performance data from the Complete Digest, I break down the field, examine the numbers, and identify the contenders.

Woodbine Mile Field

1. Deterministic (2-1)

Deterministic enters the Woodbine Mile in excellent form for trainer Miguel Clement and jockey Kendrick Carmouche.

The 5-year-old is 10-for-16 in his career with three seconds and a third-place finish. He is also 3-for-3 this year and already owns multiple Grade 1 victories, including the Fourstardave at Saratoga on Aug. 8.

Deterministic figures to be forwardly placed from the inside post. His ability to establish a good cruising speed could be an important asset, particularly if he gets an uncontested lead.

However, this one-turn mile presents a slightly different challenge. Much of Deterministic’s success has come at longer distances, including a mile and an eighth and a mile and three-sixteenths.

His strength is his determination and ability to keep fighting once he reaches the stretch. The concern is whether he can outkick horses with a stronger closing burst.

2. Gas Me Up (12-1)

Gas Me Up is looking to repeat his successful pattern from last year.

He won the Grade 2 King Edward Stakes last year before finishing third in the Woodbine Mile. He has now won the King Edward again, taking this year’s renewal by a nose.

The horse has six starts at Woodbine, with four victories and a third-place finish, and he is a three-time winner at one mile.

His 146 final-time rating in the King Edward was solid, but this year’s Woodbine Mile appears deeper. At 12-1 on the morning line, however, he could be interesting for the exotics.

3. Notable Speech (1-1)

Notable Speech is the morning-line favorite and strictly the horse to beat.

The Godolphin runner is trained by Charles Appleby and will be ridden by William Buick, who regularly rides the horse.

Notable Speech has won nine of 18 career starts and has earned nearly $4 million. He won this race last year before adding another major victory in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

He has also won two Group 1 races overseas this year, further establishing his credentials at the highest level.

Most importantly, Notable Speech owns the strongest closing kick in this field. That could prove decisive if Deterministic is in front turning for home.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

King's Plate 2026 Analysis at Woodbine (8-15-26)

The $1 million King’s Plate, the opening leg of the Canadian Triple Crown Series, is set for Saturday, August 15 at Woodbine. The 1 1/4-mile race on all-weather ground for Canadian-foaled 3-year-olds is scheduled as the 10th race with a post time of 6:12 p.m. Eastern.

The field features 12 runners, including a pair of fillies in Luster and Dixie Law.

Based on the Today’s Racing Digest past performances, Luster looks like the horse to beat, but there a few contenders who could give the impressive Woodbine Oaks winner a run for the money.

King’s Plate Field & Analysis

1. Luster (Even Money Favorite)

Luster is the clear horse to beat for Josie Carroll. She is 4-for-5 lifetime, 2-for-3 at Woodbine, and comes off a dominant victory in the Woodbine Oaks at 1 1/8 miles. She tracked the pace, drew off by more than five lengths and was geared down late.

Her Digest numbers are excellent, with recent Fire Numbers of 94, 94, and 98 and Final Time Ratings of 144 and 146. The Knicks Go filly has already proven she can win around two turns and should have the tactical speed to secure a favorable trip from the rail under her winning pilot John Velazquez.

2. Fire and Wine (30-1)

Fire and Wine has won twice at Woodbine, but his recent form is a major concern. His last three Fire Numbers are only 80, 48 and 76, well below what appears necessary to win this race.

His best races have come when he was able to get to the lead. He hasn’t been able to establish that position in his recent starts, and even if he does make the lead here, he’ll have to improve significantly to stay there for 1 1/4 miles.

3. Baaeed Alynna (30-1)

Baaeed Alynna was sixth, beaten seven lengths, in the Plate Trial. That was his first attempt around two turns, so there is some possibility of improvement with experience.

He did earn an improved 88 Fire Number last time, but his recent Final Time Ratings of 114, 113, and 125 leave him with plenty to prove from a class and speed standpoint.

4. Imyourmedicineman (20-1)

Imyourmedicineman has just one win from seven starts, although he has also recorded two seconds and a third. His lone victory came at Woodbine at 1 1/16 miles in November 2025.

He rallied to finish second in the Plate Trial at 28-1, which was encouraging, and his recent Fire Numbers of 98 and 90 are competitive. However, he hasn’t won in five starts since his maiden optional-claiming victory.

Red more at Today's Racing Digest 

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