Affirmed Stakes 2026 Analysis (6-15-26)

The Affirmed Stakes at Santa Anita Park returns to the racing calendar on Monday after originally being scheduled for June 11. A power outage interrupted racing midway through the card last week, forcing officials to cancel the remaining races, including the Affirmed Stakes. With Santa Anita adding an extra day of racing, the race has been brought back with a slightly altered field.

One notable addition is Litmus Test, who was not entered in the original version of the race. His presence adds a new dimension to the handicapping puzzle and gives bettors a proven graded stakes performer to consider.

Court of Appeal Faces Class Challenge

Court of Appeal enters as a 30-1 outsider for trainer Vladimir Cerin. A two-time winner from six starts, the gelding scored in a maiden claiming race at Churchill Downs and later picked up a sprint victory at Turf Paradise.

While the return to dirt should help, he faces a substantial class hike against much tougher competition. His pedigree suggests he should handle the distance, but this appears to be a demanding assignment.

Litmus Test Gets Class Relief

Litmus Test was originally entered in the Delaware Derby before trainer Bob Baffert redirected him to this race after the schedule change. The 7-5 morning-line favorite owns the strongest resume in the field.

The colt captured the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity and finished third in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes earlier this year. While his efforts in the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby were disappointing, the drop from Grade 1 company into a listed stakes event represents significant class relief.

A forwardly placed trip from post two could put him in an ideal position throughout.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

San Juan Capistrano Stakes Analysis (6-14-26)

Santa Anita’s closing-weekend feature is Sunday’s Grade 3 San Juan Capistrano Stakes, a $100,000 turf marathon contested at the demanding distance of 1 3/4 miles. The race attracted a field of ten older horses.

The race serves as a true test of stamina, and with several entrants stepping into unfamiliar territory distance-wise, handicappers will need to determine which horses can maintain their finishing kick over the extended journey.

Pace Picture

One of the more interesting aspects of this race is the apparent lack of early speed.

Goldeneye appears to be the most likely pacesetter, with Poor Connection potentially sitting close from the outside post. Beyond those two, most of the field does its best running from off the pace.

That could result in a tactical affair where positioning becomes just as important as numbers.

The Favorite: Gold Phoenix Still the Horse to Beat

It’s impossible to discuss this race without starting with Gold Phoenix.

The veteran eight-year-old has built an impressive resume, earning more than $2.3 million while competing almost exclusively in graded stakes company. His recent seventh-place finish in the Grade 1 Turf Classic at Churchill Downs looks disappointing on paper, but a troubled trip contributed to that result.

Before that effort, Gold Phoenix captured the Grade 3 San Luis Rey Stakes at Santa Anita over 1 1/2 miles, proving once again that long-distance turf racing remains his specialty.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Possibly Perfect Stakes Analysis (6-12-26)

The featured race at Santa Anita on Friday, June 12, is the $100,000 Possibly Perfect Stakes, a turf event for fillies and mares contested at 1¼ miles.

The race has drawn a competitive field of nine runners and several entrants appear capable of making an impact. Let’s meet the field.

#1 Watchtower

Watchtower enters the race at 6-1 on the morning line for trainer Richard Baltas. The biggest challenge with this mare is consistency. She has shown flashes of quality, including a close third-place finish in a Grade 3 earlier this year, but her recent efforts have been uneven. If she brings her best race, she can compete, but handicappers are left guessing which version will show up.

#2 Resolve

Resolve looks like a major contender in this field. Trained by Leonard Powell, she enters off a determined victory at 1⅛ miles, rallying late to get up by a head. Even more encouraging is her prior effort in a Grade 3 at Santa Anita, where she narrowly missed while racing at this same 1¼-mile distance.

The added ground appears to suit her perfectly. Her recent form is strong, and she has already proven she can handle both the class level and the distance. With another forward effort, Resolve has every chance to add a stakes victory to her resume.

#3 Innovative

Phil D’Amato’s Innovative has the talent to compete here but enters with questions after finishing eighth in each of her last two Grade 3 appearances. Earlier in her career, she showed versatility by winning at distances ranging from 6½ furlongs to 1⅛ miles. If she can recapture that earlier form, she becomes dangerous, but recent performances leave some uncertainty.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest 

Desert Stormer + Affirmed Stakes Analysis (6-11-26)

This Thursday, June 11th, marks the closing week of the Hollywood meet at Santa Anita Park, and I’m excited to break down both stakes races on the card. The past performance data I’m referencing comes from the popular Complete Digest.

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Desert Stormer Stakes – Race 2

Distance: 6 furlongs, Main Track
Purse: $100,000
Field: 5

Post	Horse	Morning Line	Notes
1	Antifona	8-1	Turf-to-dirt switch
2	Nooni	Favorite	Bob Baffert, long layoff
3	Revera	5-1	Returns to dirt
4	Magnificat	7-5	Early pressing speed, in form
5	Syntax	12-1	Turns back in distance

Key Speed and Performance Metrics:

• Fire Numbers (speed throughout the race): Antifona 90, Nooni 88, Magnificat 87
• CPR (Comprehensive Performance Rating): Antifona 134, Magnificat 130, Nooni 126
• Fast Fig: Magnificat 124, Antifona 123
• Final Time Rating: Magnificat 135, Antifona 134, Nooni 132

Analysis:

• Antifona switches from turf to dirt. She posted strong performances on turf, including a 134 final time rating in a March G3 race, but her ability to transfer form to dirt remains the question.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Santa Anita Park Stakes Analysis (5-25-26)

Memorial Day racing at Santa Anita Park features three graded stakes races, including the Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup, the Grade 1 Gamely Stakes, and the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. I’m using data from the Complete Digest from Today’s Racing Digest to break down the key contenders, pace scenarios, and betting opportunities on the Monday card.

Race 5 — Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup

The Hollywood Gold Cup drew a compact five-horse field, but there are still plenty of handicapping angles to consider. Two of the favorites enter with questions surrounding current form and class consistency.

Projected Pace & Speed Figures

Horse	Fire Number	CPR	Fast Fig	Final Time Rating
McVay	98	123	–	–
Malarchuk	–	–	129	–
Forged Steel	–	–	–	143

Fire Number ratings measure speed throughout a race, while CPR combines pace, final time, and closing fractions into a comprehensive performance figure.

Forged Steel and McVay are the designated front-runners, and from the rail draw, Forged Steel projects to secure the lead early. In a small field lacking significant pace depth, that tactical edge might become extremely important.

Forged Steel Looks Dangerous on the Front End

Ford Steel enters in sharp current form with consecutive strong final time ratings of 141, 144, and 143 while stretching out from a mile to marathon distances. He won two of his last three starts and posted a sharp Churchill Downs workout on May 18.

Flavien Prat teams up with Saffie Joseph Jr., a productive jockey-trainer combination, and the race setup could allow Ford Steel to control the pace throughout.

Other Contenders

Subsanador was a major player in 2024, but he missed all of 2025 before returning with two disappointing efforts this season. He still owns strong projected figures, but bettors must decide whether he can regain his prior form.

Malarchuk makes his second off the layoff after a solid runner-up finish in a stakes race at Sunland Park. Previously trained by Chad Brown and now in the Michael McCarthy barn, he could improve with Juan Hernandez aboard.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Santa Anita Park Stakes Analysis (5-23-26)

I’m taking a deep dive into all five California-bred stakes races at Santa Anita Park on Saturday, May 23, using the past performances and proprietary ratings from Today’s Racing Digest. The data throughout this analysis comes from the Complete Digest, which remains one of the most valuable handicapping tools for identifying pace advantages, class edges, and projected performance figures.

We’ll go race by race through the stakes action, breaking down the projected pace scenarios, key speed figures, and the horses I believe offer the strongest wagering value.

Race 3 – Thor’s Echo Stakes

6 Furlongs – Dirt – California-Breds

The first stakes race on the card drew a seven-horse field, and this race profile strongly favors speed. Front-runners at this six-furlong distance have been winning at a high percentage, so tactical position should be critical from the opening break.

Formidable Favorite: Big City Lights

The horse to beat is clearly Big City Lights, and the projections back that up across every major category.

Rating	Big City Lights
Fire Number	100
CPR	153
Fast Fig	132
Final Time Rating	152

The Fire Number measures speed throughout the race, and Big City Lights towers over this field with a projected 100. He also owns the top CPR and Fast Fig, and best Final Time Rating.

Last time out, he returned from a layoff stretching from November to May and immediately fired a winning effort at seven furlongs while earning a 100 Fire Number and a 152 Final Time Rating. That race confirmed he came back every bit as sharp as before.

His dirt sprint record at Santa Anita is especially impressive:

• 8 dirt sprint wins overall
• 6 wins from 8 Santa Anita dirt sprint starts
• Consistent in virtually every effort

Kazushi Kimura rides back for Richard Mandella, and this proven class edge makes Big City Lights the clear horse to beat.

Other Horses to Consider

Lonesome Stew has tactical speed and enough back class to compete if the favorite falters. His prior 150 Final Time Rating shows he is capable on his best day.

Uncle Chilly enters sharp off back-to-back victories and continues improving, although this is a meaningful class rise.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Santa Anita Park Analysis (5-22-26)

I’m taking a look at all nine races on the Friday card at Santa Anita Park, and there’s added value on the program thanks to a Pick 6 carryover beginning in Race 4. I’ll be using data from the Complete Digest, including Fire Numbers, CPR ratings, Fast Figs, and Final Time Ratings to break down the card race by race.

Race 1 — Starter Optional Claiming — 1 Mile Turf

The Digest numbers point clearly toward Rehearsal, who owns the best overall profile in the field with strong Fire Numbers, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Rating figures. She’s the obvious contender on paper.

Wildfire Princess has a legitimate chance to control the pace while stretching back out around two turns. She already proved she can handle this distance when winning a maiden claiming event at Del Mar last fall at one mile, and she followed that effort with a competitive third-place finish routing at Santa Anita.

Her recent sprint races weren’t bad at all, especially the runner-up finish going 6 ½ furlongs on turf in February. Juan Hernandez climbs back aboard, and that’s a major positive considering he guided her to one of her better recent efforts.

Race 2 — Maiden Special Weight (Cal-Breds) — 6 Furlongs Dirt

This race looks fairly straightforward. Otto’s Magic owns the strongest projected numbers across the board, including the top Fire Number, CPR, and Final Time Rating.

At even money on the morning line there’s not a lot of wagering value, but from a pure handicapping standpoint this horse simply looks best.

Race 3 — $32,000 Claiming — 6 Furlongs Turf

The Digest projections strongly favor Cosmo Friday, who is expected to post the top Fire Number, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Rating.

What catches my eye is the return to the rider combination that already produced a win earlier this meet. Emisael Jaramillo guided this filly to a maiden claiming victory on March 13 going six furlongs on turf, and if she reproduces that effort she can absolutely beat favorite Eva Lea.

Race 4 — Maiden Special Weight — 1 Mile Dirt

This race kicks off the Pick 6 carryover sequence, and I think it runs through Decisive Win.

Broheim actually owns the best projected Digest numbers, but I have concerns about the surface switch. His better efforts have come on turf, and I’m not convinced the dirt route is what he truly wants.

Decisive Win exits what looks like a key race. In his debut he dueled early against Crudo Velocity, who has since won multiple races including the Grade 2 Pat Day Mile while earning triple-digit speed figures. Civil Liberty, another horse exiting that race, also returned to win next out.

That race experience matters, and now Doug O’Neill stretches this colt out around two turns with Antonio Fresu returning aboard.

Race 5 — Starter Allowance — 6 Furlongs Turf

This is one of the more competitive races on the card from a numbers standpoint. Several runners share similar Final Time Ratings, and the projections are spread among multiple horses.

I really like the cutback in distance for Burning Rubber. This gelding already owns multiple strong turf sprint efforts, including a maiden win at six furlongs and another victory at 6 ½ furlongs with Juan Hernandez aboard.

Last time out he stretched back to a mile and still ran competitively, earning a solid figure despite finishing fourth. Returning to a sprint feels like the right move.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Santa Anita Park Pick 6 Carryover Analysis (5-8-26)

The Pick 6 carryover at Santa Anita Park for Friday, May 8 sits at $42,057, and the sequence covers races three through eight. After digging through the card and reviewing the projections from Today’s Racing Digest, this looks like a sequence where a few logical runners could control the outcome. That means I’m approaching this ticket with discipline and keeping the budget manageable while still trying to capitalize on the carryover opportunity.

The past performance data and proprietary ratings referenced throughout this analysis are available in the Complete Digest from Today’s Racing Digest.

Race 3 — $10,000 Claiming N3L — 5 1/2 Furlongs

This seven-horse field opens the Pick 6, and the projections point clearly toward one runner. Looking at the Today’s Racing Digest projected figures, Headstrong Ways controls nearly every key category.

Horse	Fire Number	CPR	Fast Fig	Final Time Rating
Headstrong Ways	78	102	112	113
Neezer Dalton	77	101	—	110

Headstrong Ways looks like the controlling speed from the rail and should get a favorable trip. The January 2 victory against claiming company on dirt stands out, especially the 113 Final Time Rating earned that day. If this horse reproduces that race, the rest of this field may be running for second.

My Betting Takeaway

I’m comfortable singling Headstrong Ways to begin the sequence. The projected pace setup and superior ratings make this the most reliable single on the ticket.

Race 4 — $32,000 Claiming — 1 Mile Turf

The turf rails are set at 30 feet, which generally favors horses that are forwardly placed or sitting within striking range. Deep closers often struggle under these conditions, so trip dynamics become critical.

Three runners appear intent on showing speed:

• Bear’s Board
• Motet
• Eighties

That projected pace battle could set things up for a stalker, which is why Anywaythewindblows makes plenty of sense. Still, I don’t want to leave Bear’s Board off the ticket.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Santa Anita Park Handicapping Report (April 17-19)

Santa Anita Recap for Friday (4-17-26)

Fast main track and firm turf course. Three front running winners on dirt (8f, 6.5f, 8f). On the turf course, a closing favorite graduated in the flat mile opener, a 4-1 shot closed from last of 5 to win at 6f, a 6-1 stalker tallied from the inside post at 6f, a 9-2 stalker scored from the inside post at 6.5f, and a 6-1 stalker won the 6.5f finale (rail at 30 feet).

Armando Ayuso guided home a pair of turf sprint winners. Peter Miller saddled two winners.

The $2 Pick 6 pool was $83,734 and there were no tickets with six winners. The 5 out of 6 consolation prize was $2,738.80. There will be a Pick 6 carryover of $44,734 when live racing resumes on Saturday, April 18.

April 17 Claims: Race 3 – Cyprus Moon ($30k, Leonard Powell). Race 4 – Joey Ten ($20k, Bill McLean). Race 5 – Long Mayshe Reign ($25k, George Papaprodromou), Oveta’s Hobby ($25k, Sergio Morfin), Shangrilama ($25k, Peter Miller). Race 8 – Mighty Kai ($8k, Doug O’Neill). Race 9 – Tom Seaver ($20k, Andy Mathis).

Santa Anita Full Card Highlights for Friday (4-17-26)
SA 2 BLAME IT ON JACK ($3.80)
Double (races 1-2, $8.40)
Double (races 2-3, $38.00)
Pick 3 (races 1-3, $66.60)
SA 4 SOI NGERN ($4.80), Exacta ($17.40), Trifecta ($54.60)
Double (races 3-4, $17.40)
Pick 3 (races 2-4, $56.20)
Double (races 4-5, $44.40)
Pick 3 (races 3-5, $165.20)
Early Pick 4 (races 2-5, $447.20)
SA 8 MIGHTY KAI ($4.40), Exacta ($9.60)
Bonus Stakes:
AQU 7 And One More Time/Oversubscribed Exacta ($15.80)
KEE 9 ALPINE PRINCESS ($6.10)

*Full card highlights based on $2 wagers unless otherwise noted.

Read more at The Runaway Horse

Santa Anita Derby 2026 Picks (4-4-26)

The Road to the Kentucky Derby rolls through Santa Anita Park with the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, a $500,000 event for three-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles on the main track. This is one of the most important West Coast prep races, and I’ve been tracking all the Derby points races closely—producing 13 winners, along with multiple exacta and trifecta finishes along the way.

Using data from the Complete Digest, I’m breaking down this field from a pace, speed, and class perspective before giving you my contenders.

Meet the Field

• #1 Cherokee Nation (Bob Baffert) – Dominant maiden winner last out
• #2 Potente (Bob Baffert) – San Felipe Stakes winner, undefeated
• #3 Vitruvian Man – Longshot facing a big class test
• #4 Robusta – Strong runner-up effort in the San Felipe
• #5 So Happy – Grade 2 winner trying to rebound
• #6 Start the Ride – Appears overmatched
• #7 Intrepido – Grade 1 winner as a juvenile, improving

Speed & Pace Breakdown

Key Today’s Racing Digest Metrics

Horse	Fire #	CPR	Fast Fig	Final Time Rating
Cherokee Nation	100	134	125	147
Potente	96	137	128	143
Robusta	100	133	128	143
So Happy	94	123	125	135

Fire Number highlights early and sustained speed, and Cherokee Nation and Robusta both top the field there. Meanwhile, Potente leads in CPR, signaling the most complete performance profile.

The Final Time Rating shows Cherokee Nation clearly on top with a 147—making him the fastest horse in the field based on recent performance.

Class & Form Analysis

Cherokee Nation is the wildcard. He struggled in prior stakes attempts but exploded last time out with a 10-length maiden win, earning elite pace and speed figures. That effort suggests major upside.

Potente is undefeated and already a graded stakes winner, while Robusta proved competitive at this level in the San Felipe.

Intrepido brings strong back class, including a Grade 1 win at two, and could improve second off the layoff after skipping the San Felipe to target this race.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Santa Anita Park Weekly Report (March 20-22)

Santa Anita Recap for Friday (3-20-26)

Fast main track and firm turf course. One front running winner at 5.5f on dirt. On the turf course, a 2-1 stalker graduated in the 6f opener, a 7-2 front runner earned his diploma at one mile, and a 4-1 front runner tallied at 6f (rail at 30 feet).

Riding doubles for Armando Ayuso (dirt) and Antonio Fresu (turf sprints).

The $2 Pick 6 pool was $49,315 and tickets with six winners paid $3,293.20. The 5 out of 6 consolation prize was $62.80. 

March 20 Claims: Race 7 – Known idea ($20k, George Papaprodromou), One Smokin Dude ($20k, Librado Barocio).

Santa Anita Full Card Highlights for Friday (3-20-26)
SA 1 Rethink/Ou La La/Prestige Fungson Trifecta (SA Best Bet, $107.80)
SA 3 Call Me Cory/Let’s Be Frank Exacta ($23.80), Trifecta ($59.40)
SA 7 UNCLE CHILLY ($5.00)
Double (races 6-7, $22.60)
Pick 3 (races 5-7, $83.40)
$5 Late Double (races 7-8, $93.00)

*Full card highlights based on $2 wagers unless otherwise noted.

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Santa Anita Recap for Saturday (3-21-26)

Fast main track and firm turf course. Three front running winners on dirt (8f, 6f, 6f). On the turf course, a closing favorite graduated in the 9f opener, a 3-1 front runner scored at one mile, strong favorite Grand Slam Smile wired the field from the inside post as the favorite in the Irish O’Brien at 6.5f on the downhill course, and 3-1 closer Gold Phoenix won the San Luis Rey (G3) at a mile and a half.

Riding doubles for Antonio Fresu and Tiago Pereira (routes). Phil D’Amato saddled two turf route winners.

Santa Anita Stakes Recaps for 3-21-26

Irish O’Brien (6.5T hillside): Two runners were declared non-starters (Prancingthruparis, Miss Practical). The former popped the gate and had an unfair advantage, and the latter was not awarded a fair start. Grand Slam Smile ($2.20) made short work of this group from the inside post. She wired the field by 2 1/4 lengths under William Antongeorgi. Take Another Card was second best. Prancingthruparis (non-starter) crossed the line in third and Young Love was another nose back in fourth. Sean McCarthy saddled the popular winner. Fractions: 22.10, 44.29, 1:06.95, 1:12.91.

Read more at The Runaway Horse