Affirmed Stakes 2026 Analysis (6-15-26)

The Affirmed Stakes at Santa Anita Park returns to the racing calendar on Monday after originally being scheduled for June 11. A power outage interrupted racing midway through the card last week, forcing officials to cancel the remaining races, including the Affirmed Stakes. With Santa Anita adding an extra day of racing, the race has been brought back with a slightly altered field.

One notable addition is Litmus Test, who was not entered in the original version of the race. His presence adds a new dimension to the handicapping puzzle and gives bettors a proven graded stakes performer to consider.

Court of Appeal Faces Class Challenge

Court of Appeal enters as a 30-1 outsider for trainer Vladimir Cerin. A two-time winner from six starts, the gelding scored in a maiden claiming race at Churchill Downs and later picked up a sprint victory at Turf Paradise.

While the return to dirt should help, he faces a substantial class hike against much tougher competition. His pedigree suggests he should handle the distance, but this appears to be a demanding assignment.

Litmus Test Gets Class Relief

Litmus Test was originally entered in the Delaware Derby before trainer Bob Baffert redirected him to this race after the schedule change. The 7-5 morning-line favorite owns the strongest resume in the field.

The colt captured the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity and finished third in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes earlier this year. While his efforts in the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby were disappointing, the drop from Grade 1 company into a listed stakes event represents significant class relief.

A forwardly placed trip from post two could put him in an ideal position throughout.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Kentucky Derby 2026 Video Update (4-23-26)

In this Kentucky Derby 2026 video, I update the points leaderboard and share the latest Kentucky Derby news, workouts, and contenders (4-23-26). 

I covered all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my channel. Road to Derby video record (37 13-4-7).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.   

Arkansas Derby 2026 Analysis (3-28-26)

I’m breaking down the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, a $1.5 million Kentucky Derby points race at 1 1/8 miles. This race consistently produces serious Derby contenders, and this year’s field brings a mix of proven stakes runners and lightly raced upside types.

From a pace perspective, Redland Rebels figures to be aggressive from the rail, with Litmus Test likely sitting just off the pace from the outside. The rest of the field features stalkers and closers who should benefit if the tempo gets honest early.

7 – Napoleon Solo will not run in this spot. He has been rerouted to the Wood Memorial.

Past Performances Breakdown (Using Today’s Racing Digest)

If you’re playing this race seriously, I highly recommend reviewing the Complete Digest, which provides key metrics like Final Time Ratings and Fire Numbers that I rely on heavily.

1 – Redland Rebels (15-1)

• Improving early in career, especially on turf
• Peak 143 Final Time Rating came on grass
• Faded in Tampa Bay Derby after setting the pace

Takeaway: Likely pace presence, but questionable at this level on dirt.

2 – Silent Tactic (5-2)

• Ultra-consistent closer
• 150 Final Time Rating (Southwest Stakes win)
• Narrow loss in Rebel Stakes after pressing pace

Takeaway: Dangerous late runner with proven numbers.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Oaklawn Park: Rebel Stakes + Honeybee Stakes 2026 Analysis

On Sunday, March 1, I’m breaking down two major Kentucky prep races at Oaklawn Park: the Grade 3 Honeybee Stakes (Race 9), a Kentucky Oaks 2026 points race, and the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes (Race 11), a Kentucky Derby 2026 points race.

For this analysis, I’m using the Complete Digest, which provides the Fire Number, CPR, Fast Fig, and Final Time Ratings that shape my pace and class projections.

Race 9: Honeybee Stakes (G3)

Three-Year-Old Fillies – 1 1/16 Miles – Main Track

We have a competitive 10-horse field. From a pace standpoint, this race sets up for a presser. At 1 1/16 miles at Oaklawn, pressers win 41.7% of the time, compared to 16.7% for front-runners. That profile is key.

Contenders Overview

Explorer (Top Pick)

Explorer has tactical speed and fits the ideal pressing profile. Two of her last three races featured big pace ratings (159 and 156), including a strong runner-up finish after doing the pace dirty work.

She was dominant in a seven-furlong stakes at Santa Anita earlier this year and followed that with a gritty second routing. With Flavien Prat aboard and a strong recent workout (59 flat, best of 45), she looks ready.

From post 9, she should sit just off the pace and get first run turning for home.

My Betting Takeaway: Explorer’s tactical speed plus Oaklawn’s pressing bias makes her my top choice.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest

Kentucky Derby 2026 Video Report (2-24-26)

In this Kentucky Derby 2026 video, I share my Exceptional 11 Derby contenders (2-24-26).

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Road to Kentucky Derby Report (2-24-26)

The John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park was the latest road to Kentucky Derby prep race and Great White held off Fulleffort by a neck. In this report, I will recap the John Battaglia Memorial, update the points standings, and share my exceptional eleven Derby contenders.

I cover all of the Kentucky Derby 2026 points races on my Runaway Horse video channel, and through 22 points races, my top choices have 8 wins, 4 runner-up finishes, and 2 show finishes. The next Derby points race is the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on Feb. 28. The Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park will also be run on Feb. 28, and the other Derby points race this week is the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on March 1.

Gotham field: 1 – Balboa, 2 – Hammond, 3 – Crown the Buckeye, 4 – Fourth and One, 5 – Right to Party, 6 – Iron Honor, 7 – Exhibition Only, 8 – Creole Chrome, 9 – Dirty Rich.

Fountain of Youth field: 1 – Jackson Hole, 2 – Rockies Balboa, 3 – Talkin, 4 – Commandment, 5 – Bravaro, 6 – Chief Wallabee, 7 – Napoleon Solo, 8 – Bull by the Horns, 9 – Global Aviator, 10 – Solitude Dude, 11 – Lost Money.

Rebel Stakes field: 1 – Bravaro, 2 – Litmus Test, 3 – Class President, 4 – Blackout Time, 5 – Honey’s To Blame, 6 – Strategic Risk, 7 – Silent Tactic, 8 – Rancho Santa Fe, 9 – Time for Music, 10 – Soldier N Diplomat.

Read more at The Runaway Horse.

Los Alamitos Futurity 2025 Video Analysis (12-13-25)

In this horse racing handicapping video, I analyze the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity (12-13-25).  

Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.