Kentucky Oaks 2026 Live Longshots

The 2026 Kentucky Oaks (Race 13 at Churchill Downs, post time 8:40 p.m. ET) offers a deep and competitive field, which is exactly where I want to hunt for value. My approach is simple: identify improving fillies sitting at 10-1 or higher on the morning line and evaluate them using advanced performance metrics from the Complete Digest.

What separates these evaluations is the ability to go beyond traditional figures. I rely heavily on metrics like Fire Number, CPR, and Fast Figs, which incorporate pace, class, and finishing strength—not just final time.

This year, two fillies stand out as legitimate long shot threats with upside: Always a Runner and Bella Ballerina.

Always a Runner (10-1 ML): Rapidly Improving with Upside

Profile & Form

Trainer Chad Brown sends out Always a Runner, a lightly raced filly who has done nothing wrong in two starts. She debuted at Tampa Bay Downs, stalking and drawing off to win by more than six lengths. She followed that effort with a step up in class in the Grade 3 Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct—and delivered again, grinding down the leader to win going 1 1/8 miles.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest