The races covered in this analysis include the Grade 2 Shawnee Stakes, Grade 3 Aristides Stakes, and Grade 3 Blame Stakes. I’ll go through the contenders, discuss the projected race shape, and identify the horses I believe offer the strongest chances based on form, pace setup, and Digest ratings.
Race 6 — Grade 2 Shawnee Stakes
Distance: 1 1/16 Miles
Purse: $300,000
Division: Fillies & Mares
Main Contenders
Splendora enters as the morning-line favorite for Bob Baffert and looks like the horse to beat if she rebounds from her disappointing effort in the Derby City Distaff. Prior to that race, she had been exceptionally sharp, posting multiple strong Digest figures including back-to-back 155 ratings. Her Grade 1 Beholder Mile victory at Santa Anita proved she can handle two turns effectively, and her Del Mar form last year was outstanding.
While the recent Churchill defeat raises questions, she has trained forwardly over the surface since that race and retains Flavien Prat. If she returns to her best form, she is clearly fast enough to win.
Immersive is the horse I believe still has upside. Brad Cox has done an excellent job managing her career, and she has never finished outside the exacta in eight starts. Her comeback effort at seven furlongs looked more like a prep than a target race, and stretching back out around two turns should help significantly.
She owns tactical speed, draws the outside post, and gets Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. Her previous Churchill performances fit well against this group, and her progression suggests another move forward is possible second off the layoff.
Majestic Oops is a hard-trying mare who consistently picks up checks at this level. She exits a respectable effort in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom and already owns a Grade 2 victory this season in the Azeri Stakes. Her consistency makes her usable underneath in exotics.
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