Paradise Creek Stakes Analysis (5-23-26)

The seventh race at Aqueduct on Saturday, May 23 is the $150,000 Paradise Creek Stakes, a six-furlong turf sprint for three-year-olds on the outer turf course. This competitive field features a pair of inside pace players, multiple stakes-tested runners, and a few improving types that could take a step forward at the right time.

Using the past performances from Today’s Racing Digest, I broke down the field from both a pace and figure standpoint to determine which runners are most likely to get the right trip and deliver their best effort.

Projected Pace Scenario

The pace complexion looks fairly straightforward on paper. Chasing Freedom and Track Tiger appear to be the primary speed influences, with both runners showing consistent front-end intent in recent starts.

From the rail, Chasing Freedom should be aggressive early after wiring a field at Fair Grounds in his maiden victory. However, I do not expect him to get an uncontested lead here.

Track Tiger has tactical speed and picks up aggressive rider Kendrick Carmouche, who is unlikely to concede early position. Just behind those two, horses like Intricate Spirit and Twilight Delight should work out stalking trips within striking range.

Closers such as Azizam and Itza Lock may benefit if the pace becomes heated, but this race does not project to collapse the way the Palisades Stakes did at Keeneland.

Digest Figure Analysis

1 – Chasing Freedom

Chasing Freedom earned a 146 Pace Rating and 128 Final Time Rating in his maiden victory at Fair Grounds. The numbers are respectable, especially for a lightly raced horse making his first start against winners.

The key question is whether he can reproduce that effort while stretching from five and a half furlongs to six furlongs against significantly tougher company.

2 – Track Tiger

Track Tiger owns some of the stronger sprint credentials in the field. Two starts back, he wired an allowance field with a 140 Pace Rating and 144 Final Time Rating while earning a 96 Fire Number.

Last time out, he finished second as the favorite in the John Shear Stakes after setting the pace throughout. The concern is whether softer ground at Aqueduct could dull his California-based speed profile if forecasted rain impacts the course condition.

Read more at Today's Racing Digest