The Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup is the featured race at Keeneland on Saturday, October 10, with a large field of 11 three-year-old fillies set to compete for a $750,000 purse. The race will be contested at 1 1/8 miles on the turf course, with a scheduled post time of 5:16 p.m. Eastern.
There is a chance of rain on Saturday, so turf conditions could be less than firm.
Let’s take a look at the field, examine the Digest numbers, and identify the top contenders.
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Field Overview
1. Haute Diva (30-1)
Haute Diva has made 11 career starts, recording three wins and four runner-up finishes. She won an all-weather stakes race at Gulfstream Park in June before stepping up to face older fillies and mares in the Grade 2 Beverly D. Stakes.
She was 72-1 in that race and was pinched at the start. After the troubled beginning, she passed a few runners to finish sixth, beaten less than five lengths in a nine-horse field.
She earned a 134 final-time rating when winning the Martha Washington Stakes and a 131 in the Beverly D. Her Fire numbers, which measure speed throughout a race, were 94 and 86 in her last two starts.
She has shown some ability, but she’ll need to improve considerably to compete with this field. From the inside post, she could try to save ground and make a late run.
2. Luster (5-2)
Luster is the horse to beat after winning her last three stakes starts. Her recent victories include the Grade 3 Selene Stakes, the Woodbine Oaks, and the King’s Plate, where she defeated male rivals by more than seven lengths.
John Velazquez returns to the saddle. He has ridden Luster three times, and she has won all three races with him aboard.
Her recent numbers are especially impressive. Her last four Fire numbers were 98, 94, 94, and 101. Her corresponding final-time ratings were 146, 144, 132, and 153, with that top figure coming in her dominant King’s Plate victory.
Luster has also won both of her turf starts, including a victory at Keeneland, and she has handled both firm and yielding turf.
Her tactical speed should allow Velazquez to position her comfortably near the lead without using too much energy early. She has also demonstrated that she can work out a good trip from an inside post.
Luster has repeatedly defeated quality opponents, including horses who subsequently won their next starts. Her connections targeted this Grade 1 event rather than continuing through the Canadian Triple Crown series, giving her a fresh objective after her impressive summer campaign.
With strong recent figures, proven turf ability, and a favorable running style, Luster is a top win contender.
3. Tam Tam (4-1)
Tam Tam has been consistent, with four wins, two seconds, and two thirds from nine starts. She has also handled the 1 1/8-mile distance, recording a win and a third-place finish in two attempts.
She won the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks last time out after finishing first in the previous stakes race, the Tepin Stakes.
In the Del Mar Oaks, Tam Tam worked out an ideal trip by tracking the pace in second, taking over, and holding off the late runners. Her final-time ratings improved from a 146 in the Tepin to a 149 in the Del Mar Oaks.
Her last two Fire numbers were 100 and 97, indicating that she has maintained a strong level of speed throughout her recent races.
Tam Tam has tactical speed and an inside post, which should help her secure a favorable position. She is clearly in excellent form, although she’ll need to reproduce her recent performances against a strong field.
4. Faithful Departed (7-2)
Faithful Departed has finished in the top two in multiple recent graded stakes, including a victory in the Grade 3 Regret and runner-up finishes in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks and Grade 2 Saratoga Oaks.
Her final-time ratings have improved in her last three starts, going from 135 to 132 and then 138 in the Belmont Oaks.
She was scheduled to compete in the Dueling Grounds Oaks but had to miss that race after spiking a temperature. Instead, her connections have given her additional time to prepare for this race, and she has recorded some encouraging workouts.
Faithful Departed has shown that she can finish strongly from off the pace. In the Belmont Oaks, she rallied from 10th to finish second, although that trip left her with considerable ground to make up.
Her best effort may come if Jose Ortiz can keep her within striking range, perhaps five lengths behind the leaders, while saving ground around the turns.
She has the class and finishing kick to win this race.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
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