In this analysis, I’ll examine data from the Complete Digest, including track profile stats, speed and pace projections, final-time ratings, and trainer statistics to identify the horses with the best chances of winning each leg.
Let’s take a closer look at each race and identify the leading contenders for Friday’s Pick Six.
Race 4: California-Bred Optional Claiming — One Mile on Dirt
The opening leg is an optional claiming event for California-bred fillies and mares going one mile on the main track.
Santa Anita’s track profile at this distance shows an advantage for horses with early-pressing speed. Front-runners have won 33% of the 12 races in the sample, while pressers have accounted for nearly 42% of the winners. Midpack runners have not won in the sample, and rear runners have won 25%.
The speed and pace projections identify Dorie Miller as the leading contender in the Fire Number category with an 84 and the best projected Comprehensive Performance Rating (CPR) at 120.
Dottie Hinson leads the Fast Fig category with a 116, while Kool Mariah has the best projected final-time rating at 117, narrowly ahead of Dorie Miller’s 116.
Dottie Hinson has the best last-race final-time rating at 122, but Dorie Miller owns the best overall, surface, and distance ratings at 134.
Top Contenders
#1 Dottie Hinson is a logical win threat. Her speed ratings have improved in each of her last three sprint starts, climbing from 105 to 111 and then 122.
Breaking from the rail with Juan Hernandez aboard, she should have an opportunity to establish a forward position. Trainer Andy Mathis has performed well with horses stretching out from sprints to routes, winning 10 of 51 starters.
#3 Kool Mariah is one of the top players because she has already demonstrated that she can handle a mile. In her first route attempt at one mile on turf, she went wire-to-wire to graduate with a 110 final-time rating and a 135 pace rating.
Her other mile attempt produced a 117 final-time rating in a clear, distant runner-up finish behind Christel Clean after chasing the pace.
Kool Mariah returned to sprinting in her most recent start, finishing an even fourth in a six-furlong race. Now making her third start following a layoff, she stretches back out to a distance at which she has already shown ability.
Tyler Baze returns aboard for trainer Ian Kruljac. The jockey-trainer combination has recorded two wins, two seconds, and two thirds from 10 starts together.
#5 Dorie Miller deserves consideration, particularly after the projected figures she has posted. However, her overall record raises concerns: she has just two career victories from 38 starts. She frequently finishing in the money (19 underneath finishes).
Race 5: Starter Allowance — One Mile and One-Eighth on Turf
The second leg is a starter allowance event for three-year-olds and up traveling a mile and an eighth on the turf.
Top Contenders
#4 Caisson is a strong contender for the Pick Six.
The horse comes off a starter allowance victory at Del Mar over one mile on turf. His final-time ratings have shown a steady upward progression, moving from 104 to 110, 116, 125, and 135.
That pattern suggests continued improvement. The main concern is his record over Santa Anita turf routes, where he has won just once in 12 attempts.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
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