With rain a possibility this weekend, bettors should pay close attention to the weather and any surface changes. Several runners have established turf credentials, while others could become more appealing if the race moves to the main track.
Franklin Stakes Field and Horse-by-Horse Analysis
No. 1 Usha (4-1)
Usha enters the Franklin Stakes after winning a six-furlong stakes race on the Churchill Downs main track. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Flavien Prat, she brings established dirt form and a strong jockey-trainer combination.
Her past performances include a Grade 1 La Brea Stakes victory at seven furlongs, but her recent speed figures have declined. After earning a 152 final-time rating in that win, she recorded figures of 141, 138, 125, 122 and 123.
The biggest question is her lack of turf experience. Her sire, Tiz the Law, has a reported 14% first-time turf winner rate, while her dam has produced three winners from as many starters but none on turf.
Usha could show early speed from the inside post, especially with blinkers being added. However, she will need to improve her recent numbers to compete with the best in this field.
If the race moves to dirt, she becomes more interesting. She has five wins, two seconds and four thirds from 13 career starts on the main track.
No. 2 Itzel (20-1)
Itzel is likely to be prominent early, but her finishing ability is a concern. She dueled for the lead before finishing 10 lengths behind in the Smart and Fancy Stakes on yielding turf.
Before that effort, she finished second in an Ellis Park stakes race at five and a half furlongs. She has also struggled at the distance, winning once from 11 attempts while recording three runner-up finishes and one third.
Itzel could influence the early pace, but she will need to improve considerably to remain competitive through the stretch.
No. 3 Time to Dazzle (8-1)
Time to Dazzle is an appealing price contender who appears to be returning to form at the right time.
She won this race last year, rallying from off the pace to score by more than three lengths with a 147 final-time rating. Her form dipped afterward, with figures of 138, 137 and 134, but she has rebounded with consecutive runner-up finishes.
She earned a 147 rating in the Hendrie Stakes on all-weather footing and followed that with a second-place finish in the Grade 1 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Sprint.
Her recent Fire Numbers of 97 and 98 also suggest that she is performing well. With Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for trainer Mark Casse, Time to Dazzle should be finishing strongly if the early pace sets things up for a closer.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
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