The scratches of Scottish Lassie and Splendora change the complexion of this race. Both were potential speed influences, and their departures take some potential early pressure out of the field.
Nitrogen is the deserving morning-line favorite. She has never finished outside the top three in 18 career starts and has the fastest overall final-time rating in this field. She likes to be forwardly placed, but the pace could get interesting, particularly with Super Corredora likely to show speed.
Let’s dive into the analysis and see what the Digest numbers show.
Horse-by-Horse Breeders’ Cup Distaff Analysis
1. Immersive (30-1)
Immersive has a strong overall career record, with six wins, four seconds, and two thirds from 12 starts. She is a consistent filly, but I have concerns about her current form. Her speed figures have declined sharply in her last two starts, falling to 126 and 125 after previously recording 140 and 146 when she was in better form.
She was a well-beaten third in the Locust Grove and then finished third in the three-horse Grade 1 Spinster. In that Spinster, she set the pace before weakening and finishing more than nine lengths behind Fully Subscribed.
The rail could put Immersive into the early pace picture, and she has enough speed to influence the opening stages. But I need to see a significant return to her better form before trusting her to win this championship race.
2. Nitrogen (6-5)
Nitrogen is the most accomplished horse in this field. She has nine wins, six seconds, and three thirds from 18 starts. She was second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff and returns with another strong campaign behind her.
Her biggest performance this year came in the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Saratoga, where she won by a dozen lengths at 1 1/8 miles. She earned a 174 Final Time Rating that day, the best overall number in this field. She subsequently finished second against the boys in the Whitney, behind Sovereignty, before winning the Beldame at Belmont Park.
Her last-out Beldame performance earned a 150 Final Time Rating. That number puts her right in the mix, and she is capable of much more if she reproduces her Ogden Phipps effort.
The concern is the pace. Nitrogen is an early-pressing type who can race close to the lead, and Super Corredora figures to be aggressive. If Nitrogen gets into an early battle, Fully Subscribed could benefit. Still, Nitrogen is a major threat because she is consistently competitive and has the best overall rating, but she won’t offer much wagering value.
3. Regaled (20-1)
Regaled is an interesting longshot, particularly for bettors looking for a runner to use underneath in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. She finished third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff at 30-1 after producing a late rally from post 12. She returns to the race after winning the Grade 3 Delaware Handicap.
She has won twice at 1 1/8 miles, and both of those victories came in the Delaware Handicap. Her projected CPR of 153 is the best in the field, reinforcing her status as one of the strongest late-running candidates.
Regaled has also been getting back on track after facing tough competition earlier in the season. She finished second to Immersive in the Fleur de Lis before winning at Delaware. I like the fact that she has already shown she can make a late run in this race, but I am not convinced the pace will be fast enough to bring her all the way into contention for the win.
Read more at Today's Racing Digest
No comments:
Post a Comment