In this horse racing video, I preview the Grade 1 Travers and H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes at Saratoga Race Course.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Showing posts with label Bill Mott. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bill Mott. Show all posts
Monday, August 18, 2025
Sunday, July 27, 2025
Jim Dandy Stakes 2025 Recap + Travers Preview
In this horse racing video, I recap the Jim Dandy and preview the Travers Stakes.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Saturday, June 14, 2025
Sovereignty and Journalism Updated News Video
In this horse racing video, I look at what is next for Sovereignty and Journalism.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Saturday, June 7, 2025
Belmont Stakes 2025 Video Recap: Sovereignty, Journalism, Baeza
In this horse racing video, I recap the 2025 Belmont Stakes at Saratoga Race Course (6-7-25).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Saturday, May 24, 2025
Belmont Stakes 2025 Video News Update (5-24-25)
In this horse racing video, I share the latest 2025 Belmont Stakes news (5-24-25).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Tuesday, May 6, 2025
Preakness Stakes 2025 Video News Update (5-6-25)
In this horse racing video, I share the latest 2025 Preakness Stakes news (5-6-25).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Sunday, May 4, 2025
Preakness Stakes 2025 Preview Video
In this horse racing video, I preview the 2025 Preakness Stakes.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Saturday, May 3, 2025
Kentucky Derby 205 Recap Video
In this horse racing video, I recap the 2025 Kentucky Derby.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Thursday, May 1, 2025
Kentucky Derby 2025 Analysis
In this horse racing video, I analyze the 2025 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Sunday, April 27, 2025
Kentucky Derby 2025 Video News Update (4-27-25)
In this horse racing video, I take a look at the latest Kentucky Derby 2025 news (4-27-25).
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Sunday, April 20, 2025
Kentucky Derby 2025 News Update (4-19-25)
In this horse racing video, I take a look at the latest Kentucky Derby 2025 news (4-19-25).
I covered all of the road to Kentucky Derby prep races, and through all 37 points races, my top choices had 11 wins, 7 runner-up finishes, and 3 show finishes. Two of my top choices scratched, so I was officially 11-for-35.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Friday, June 7, 2024
Belmont Stakes 2024 Top Pick
This horse racing video features 2024 Belmont Stakes final analysis.
Check out horse racing free picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Friday, February 3, 2023
Kentucky Derby 2023 Video Series: Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes
Here is my latest road to #kyderby 2023 video featuring analysis of the Holy Bull Stakes.
Check out free stakes picks, Santa Anita full card analysis, and more at The Runaway Horse.
Saturday, August 10, 2019
Travers Stakes 2019 Video Preview #2: Key Prep Races
The 2019 Travers Stakes (G1) is still two weeks away, but all of the major preps have been run, and there are ten horses seriously considering the mid-summer Derby at this stage. It promises to be the biggest horse racing event of the summer, and it might have major implications on the 3-year-old title.
Check out my Travers video below! This week's video looks at the key prep races for the mid-summer Derby.
Saratoga Race Course photo above courtesy of Josh Chicorelli
You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Sales page.
Check out my Travers video below! This week's video looks at the key prep races for the mid-summer Derby.
Saratoga Race Course photo above courtesy of Josh Chicorelli
You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Sales page.
Friday, July 26, 2019
Saturday, April 20, 2019
Saturday, April 13, 2019
Kentucky Derby 2019 Video Series: Arkansas Derby Runners Country House and Galilean
My Kentucky Derby 2019 under the radar video series continues with the Arkansas Derby (G1). In this video, I take a look at Country House, Galilean, and Laughing Fox.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Country House capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Video by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Country House capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Video by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Recap: Tacitus over Tax in Wood Memorial
Aqueduct Race Course
4/6/2019
Race Round-Up: (R10) Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/8th Mile Dirt, $750,000)
Track Condition: Fast
Final Time: 1:51.23
Tacitus proved his worth on Saturday when he overcame a troubled beginning and eventually got up to win by a length and a quarter over Tax. He now has two Gr. II wins under his belt and put himself atop the Kentucky Derby 2019 leader board with 150 points. Traveling fourth down the backstretch, the son of Tapit went through fractions of 23.62, 46.91, 1:11.46, 1:37.81 before crossing the wire at 1:51.23. I have to say, this was an incredible run given the circumstances going into the first turn and the way he overcame adversity must sit well with bettors going into the Derby. Unless something crazy happens in the next two weeks I would imagine he’ll be a top three betting choice come May 4th.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Tacitus capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
The top four runners in here were Tacitus, Tax, Haikal, and Math Wizard. Tax solidified his Derby ticket by earning 40 tokens for his second-place finish and now sits in 12th with 52 points. Haikal came into this race with 50 points so he was most likely going to the Derby anyway, but he bumped up his total to 70 after his third-place effort. Math Wizard ran well for fourth, however he will not have enough to qualify for the Derby.
Let’s look at the race round up for Saturday’s Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes:
#1 – Tacitus: Started well under Jose Ortiz but soon came under trouble due to Joevia coming across the field from post 11. Tax was a little bit ahead of Tacitus at this point who moved slightly outside Joevia going into the first turn. Due to this Ortiz had to pull up on the reins which caused his mount to drift outside which made Overdeliver drift further outside. Going into the backstretch Tacitus was moved down towards the rail and ran in fourth for much of the race before making a four-wide move into the stretch. He quickly had his sights set on Tax and soon headed the second-place finisher before powering away to win by a length and a quarter.
#2 – Tax: Had a great start from post one and was quickly joined by Joevia. Tax made a slight move outside of Joevia which caused further trouble to a few of the horses behind him. He settled in third down the backstretch before making the first jump on Not That Brady down the lane. He quickly took over the lead but had Tacitus right to his outside. He had a valiant effort but was no match for the winner and eventually finished second by a little more than a length.
#3 – Haikal: Was slow out of the gate like he usually is and settle between horses going into the first turn. He ended up in eighth down the backstretch and eventually had to make a move between the two Pletcher horses going into the final turn. Haikal skimmed the rail and kept fighting on to get up for third by a half length over Math Wizard.
#4 – Math Wizard: Ran evenly with Outshine to his outside out of the break. The jockey had to pull back on the reins slightly as Not That Brady pushed towards the front, but it was nothing too serious. He ended up in tenth on the backstretch where he got the jump on Haikal by splitting the two Pletcher horses. Entering the final turn, he was in fifth down by the rail and it looked like he would hold on for a third, but he was done running midway down the stretch.
#5 – Not That Brady: Broke well and was just able to avoid the traffic going into the first turn and ended up in third moving into the backstretch. He soon joined Joevia to his outside where the duo raced head to head leading up to the final turn. Joevia began to retreat at this point and Not That Brady went into the stretch with a slight lead over Tax. This lead did not last long, and the son of Big Brown faded to fifth losing by about five lengths.
#6 – Final Jeopardy: Had a clean break under Manny Franco and was quickly shuffled to fifth in between Tacitus and Overdeliever before the first turn. Down the backstretch he took up running in ninth before getting passed by Grumps Little Tots. He made up some ground entering the final turn and just got up for sixth over Joevia down the lane. Not a bad finish considering the circumstances going into the first turn.
#7 – Joevia (Disqualified and placed 11th): Took off from post 11 and made a strong move towards the rail going into the first turn. Due to this, Tacticus, Final Jeopardy, and Overdeliver were all negatively affected. Joevia was in first moving into the backstretch but was soon joined by Not That Brady where the two battled it out until Joevia began to retreat before the final turn. He was passed by Final Jeopardy down the lane to finish seventh but was eventually disqualified and placed last.
#8 – Hoffa’s Union: Did not break well but was able to avoid the trouble going into the first turn and sat about seventh in the early stages. Hoffa’s Union moved into fifth during the backstretch and really had no excuse from there. Entering the stretch, you can see the horse was done running so I feel it was too much too soon for this guy.
#9 – Grumps Little Tots: Began slowest of the group and was last going into the first turn. He soon passed Final Jeopardy but did little after that. Down the lane he was a little green and Lezcano pulled back on the reins signally he was finished at that point.
#10 – Outshine: Had an even beginning next to Math Wizard but Velazquez tried to push on towards the front runners entering the first turn. He was already wide at that point due to Overdeliver getting pushed further outside and ended up floating about seven-wide around the first turn. He was essentially done by this point but given the circumstances you could probably draw a line through this effort.
#11 – Overdeliver: Probably took the worst of the whole debacle going into the first turn and ended up going five to six around the first turn. He tried his best down the backstretch but ended up retreating before the final turn. You can probably draw a line through this effort as he arguably took the worst from the congestion going into the first turn.
About Josh:
Originally from Upstate New York, Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".
Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.
Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).
4/6/2019
Race Round-Up: (R10) Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/8th Mile Dirt, $750,000)
Track Condition: Fast
Final Time: 1:51.23
Tacitus proved his worth on Saturday when he overcame a troubled beginning and eventually got up to win by a length and a quarter over Tax. He now has two Gr. II wins under his belt and put himself atop the Kentucky Derby 2019 leader board with 150 points. Traveling fourth down the backstretch, the son of Tapit went through fractions of 23.62, 46.91, 1:11.46, 1:37.81 before crossing the wire at 1:51.23. I have to say, this was an incredible run given the circumstances going into the first turn and the way he overcame adversity must sit well with bettors going into the Derby. Unless something crazy happens in the next two weeks I would imagine he’ll be a top three betting choice come May 4th.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Tacitus capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
The top four runners in here were Tacitus, Tax, Haikal, and Math Wizard. Tax solidified his Derby ticket by earning 40 tokens for his second-place finish and now sits in 12th with 52 points. Haikal came into this race with 50 points so he was most likely going to the Derby anyway, but he bumped up his total to 70 after his third-place effort. Math Wizard ran well for fourth, however he will not have enough to qualify for the Derby.
Let’s look at the race round up for Saturday’s Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes:
#1 – Tacitus: Started well under Jose Ortiz but soon came under trouble due to Joevia coming across the field from post 11. Tax was a little bit ahead of Tacitus at this point who moved slightly outside Joevia going into the first turn. Due to this Ortiz had to pull up on the reins which caused his mount to drift outside which made Overdeliver drift further outside. Going into the backstretch Tacitus was moved down towards the rail and ran in fourth for much of the race before making a four-wide move into the stretch. He quickly had his sights set on Tax and soon headed the second-place finisher before powering away to win by a length and a quarter.
#2 – Tax: Had a great start from post one and was quickly joined by Joevia. Tax made a slight move outside of Joevia which caused further trouble to a few of the horses behind him. He settled in third down the backstretch before making the first jump on Not That Brady down the lane. He quickly took over the lead but had Tacitus right to his outside. He had a valiant effort but was no match for the winner and eventually finished second by a little more than a length.
#3 – Haikal: Was slow out of the gate like he usually is and settle between horses going into the first turn. He ended up in eighth down the backstretch and eventually had to make a move between the two Pletcher horses going into the final turn. Haikal skimmed the rail and kept fighting on to get up for third by a half length over Math Wizard.
#4 – Math Wizard: Ran evenly with Outshine to his outside out of the break. The jockey had to pull back on the reins slightly as Not That Brady pushed towards the front, but it was nothing too serious. He ended up in tenth on the backstretch where he got the jump on Haikal by splitting the two Pletcher horses. Entering the final turn, he was in fifth down by the rail and it looked like he would hold on for a third, but he was done running midway down the stretch.
#5 – Not That Brady: Broke well and was just able to avoid the traffic going into the first turn and ended up in third moving into the backstretch. He soon joined Joevia to his outside where the duo raced head to head leading up to the final turn. Joevia began to retreat at this point and Not That Brady went into the stretch with a slight lead over Tax. This lead did not last long, and the son of Big Brown faded to fifth losing by about five lengths.
#6 – Final Jeopardy: Had a clean break under Manny Franco and was quickly shuffled to fifth in between Tacitus and Overdeliever before the first turn. Down the backstretch he took up running in ninth before getting passed by Grumps Little Tots. He made up some ground entering the final turn and just got up for sixth over Joevia down the lane. Not a bad finish considering the circumstances going into the first turn.
#7 – Joevia (Disqualified and placed 11th): Took off from post 11 and made a strong move towards the rail going into the first turn. Due to this, Tacticus, Final Jeopardy, and Overdeliver were all negatively affected. Joevia was in first moving into the backstretch but was soon joined by Not That Brady where the two battled it out until Joevia began to retreat before the final turn. He was passed by Final Jeopardy down the lane to finish seventh but was eventually disqualified and placed last.
#8 – Hoffa’s Union: Did not break well but was able to avoid the trouble going into the first turn and sat about seventh in the early stages. Hoffa’s Union moved into fifth during the backstretch and really had no excuse from there. Entering the stretch, you can see the horse was done running so I feel it was too much too soon for this guy.
#9 – Grumps Little Tots: Began slowest of the group and was last going into the first turn. He soon passed Final Jeopardy but did little after that. Down the lane he was a little green and Lezcano pulled back on the reins signally he was finished at that point.
#10 – Outshine: Had an even beginning next to Math Wizard but Velazquez tried to push on towards the front runners entering the first turn. He was already wide at that point due to Overdeliver getting pushed further outside and ended up floating about seven-wide around the first turn. He was essentially done by this point but given the circumstances you could probably draw a line through this effort.
#11 – Overdeliver: Probably took the worst of the whole debacle going into the first turn and ended up going five to six around the first turn. He tried his best down the backstretch but ended up retreating before the final turn. You can probably draw a line through this effort as he arguably took the worst from the congestion going into the first turn.
About Josh:
Originally from Upstate New York, Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".
Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.
Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).
Saturday, March 30, 2019
Kentucky Derby 2019 Video Series Featuring Hidden Scroll
This is my third in a series of videos featuring under the radar horses on the road to Kentucky Derby 2019. I started covering all of the remaining points races beginning with the Louisiana Derby (G2) from Fair Grounds on Saturday, March 23. Spinoff, trainer by Todd Pletcher, was featured in my first video, and Anothertwistafate was my second video horse to watch in the Sunland Derby (G3). In this video, I take a look at Florida Derby entrant Hidden Scroll.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Hidden Scroll capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Article and Video by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Hidden Scroll capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Article and Video by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Saturday, March 2, 2019
Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: Hidden Scroll Favored in Fountain of Youth Stakes
The Road to Kentucky Derby 2019 makes one stop this weekend, and it might be an important one. The Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park will be run on Saturday, March 2, and romping debut winner Hidden Scroll is the morning line favorite.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) from Gulfstream Park (3-2-19)
GP 13 (G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5f) #4 BOURBON WAR (10-1) gets pace to chase and exits a sharp optional claiming victory at this course/distance (150 Final Rating w/strong 32.0 Last Fraction). #8 Global Campaign (10-1) pressed the pace and kicked well clear in both of his local starts (137, 141 Final Rating). This is a tough spot for the promising, well bred son of Curlin. #7 Hidden Scroll (9-5) ran fast throughout in his local flat mile maiden romp in the slop (153 Final Rating). He looms a pace factor at the very least and this is a good two turn stakes test on dry land vs. quality competition. #5 Vekoma (7-2) won both of his starts last year including the Nashua (G3). He shows six works for this and figures to stalk the pace. #6 Signalman (9-2) ran well in all five starts last year including a trio of top three finishes in Kentucky Derby points races. He is hoping for contested early fractions and might be able to land a share. #1 Code of Honor (6-1) drew well and deserves another chance after a flat 4th in the Mucho Macho Man. He was a sharp debut winner at Saratoga last summer and overcame a bad start to finish a clear 2nd in the Champagne (G1) second time out. He is training well for this. THE PLAYS: #4 & #8 to win, Trifecta 1-4-5-7-8/1-4-5-7-8/6
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Bourbon War capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders (3-1-19)
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Latest Workout: 6f from the gate in 1:13.60 (3/11) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 25.
Comments: It has been a long time since we have seen Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion. He went 4-for-4 as a juvenile including a trio of grade one victories (Del Mar Futurity, American Pharoah Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile). The BC Juvenile has been a productive race so far. Show finisher Signalman returned to take the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). 5th place finisher Gunmetal Gray won the Sham Stakes (G3) in his next start, and 7th place finisher Mind Control won the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on New Year’s Day. Well Defined finished 12th in the Juvenile and captured the Sam F. Davis (G3) on Feb. 9. He was not a next-out winner (5th in Mucho Macho Man Jan. 5) but did become the fourth Juvenile runner to win a points race. He has a strong pedigree, Derby-winning connections, class, running style versatility, and is in great shape as the current Derby points leader. He returned to the work tab Jan. 9 and is expected to have two Derby preps this year (San Felipe & SA Derby likely targets). The San Felipe is on March 9 at Santa Anita Park, and the Santa Anita Derby is on April 6.
Derby Points (30)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:12 (1/11) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 25.
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s unbeaten colt got better as distances increased in a trio of 2018 starts. In his final start as a 2-year-old, he was the strong favorite in the Lost Alamitos Futurity (G1) on Dec. 8, and he stalked the pace and won for fun from the inside post at a mile and a sixteenth. He really kicked it in high gear in late stretch in that race and seems to want more ground. Troubled Los Al Futurity show finisher Extra Hope was a next-out allowance winner on a wet track at Santa Anita Jan. 31. Los Al Futurity runner-up Mucho Gusto won the Robert Lewis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 2. The son of City Zip returned to the work tab Jan. 9 and the latest word is that he will take on his stablemate Game Winner in the San Felipe on March 9. Bob Baffert is known to change his mind when it comes to Derby preps, so we shall see if his two big Derby contenders face off on March 9 at Santa Anita.
Derby Points (10)
(3) SIGNALMAN (General Quarters - Trip South, by Trippi)
Trainer (Ken McPeek) - Owner (Magdalena Racing)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.75 (15/44) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 23.
Comments: This one racked up the Derby points as a juvenile with top three finishes in the Breeders’ Futurity (2nd), BC Juvenile (3rd), and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (1st). He sure was consistent last year and had his first published workout of 2019 on Jan. 26. He makes his 3-year-old bow in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He has had five workouts this year (thru Feb. 23) and trainer Ken McPeek probably won’t have him fully cranked for his sophomore debut. I would like to see him finish up well and hit the board on Saturday while picking up a few more Derby points.
Derby Points (18)
(4) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.00 (1/3) at Payson Park on Feb. 22.
Comments: Could not have been more impressive in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile maiden special weight affair for three-year-olds, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and he widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. He is bred to handle a route of ground and could be any kind of performer. His aforementioned debut was on a wet track and I want to see if he can run the same race on dry land. We will learn much more about him in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, and he is the morning line favorite.
(5) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Latest Workout: 5f gate bullet in 59.20 (1/33) at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 24.
Comments: Lost for the first time after a bad start from the rail in the Heft Stakes at Laurel Park Dec. 29. He was clearly second best that day and talented winner Alwaysmining has now won three straight (2 stakes wins). Michael Trombetta’s improving colt shipped to Tampa Bay Downs and ran off the screen in the Pasco Stakes at seven panels after a slow start on Jan. 19, and he is now 3-for-4 with a 2nd in sprint races. He is targeting the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 9 and is training well for that engagement, and that will be his first try over a route of ground.
(6) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Comments: There have been eleven Derby points races so far this year, and War of Will had two of the better looking victories in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks and months. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Derby Points (60)
(7) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still green. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together.
Derby Points (20)
(8) INSTAGRAND (Into Mischief - Assets of War, by Lawyer Ron)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:26.60 (2/2) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 25.
Comments: He was untouchable in his first two dirt sprints last summer (both 10-length romps) including the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar. The $1.2 million purchase has not started since 8-11-18 and that was a decision made by his owner. I am not sure how far he ultimately wants to go but he certainly showed a lot of promise as a juvenile. He was expected to make his first 3-year-old start in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 9, but will instead run in the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct that same day. This was definitely the right move. He has not been seen in quite some time and the one turn mile in New York makes much more sense.
(9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24.
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 59.87 (1/6) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 23.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He was originally slated to go in the Remsen Stakes but got a break instead, and he returned to the work tab in Florida on Jan. 12. He has some route and sprint influences in his pedigree, and we will see how far he wants to go in the near future. He goes next in the Fountain of Youth, and we will learn much more about him in that event.
(11) GUNMETAL GRAY (Exchange Rate - Classofsixtythree, by Include)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (West Point Thoroughbreds and Jerry Hollendorfer)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:15.20 (14/23) at Santa Anita Park on March 1.
Comments: Has competed in four points races over a route of ground with a win in the Sham (G3) and runner-up finishes in the American Pharoah (G1) and Robert Lewis (G3). I thought that his Robert Lewis runner-up finish was his best race to date. He proved that he could handle a wet track that day and showed nice late interest over a speed favoring surface. I still think that he is a cut below the best at this stage but he does have some stamina and a decent late kick.
Derby Points (18)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Code of Honor, (13) Dream Maker, (14) Extra Hope, (15) Roadster, (16) Bourbon War, (17) Mucho, (18) Spinoff, (19) Tacitus, (20) Mucho Gusto
Kentucky Derby 2019 article by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) from Gulfstream Park (3-2-19)
GP 13 (G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5f) #4 BOURBON WAR (10-1) gets pace to chase and exits a sharp optional claiming victory at this course/distance (150 Final Rating w/strong 32.0 Last Fraction). #8 Global Campaign (10-1) pressed the pace and kicked well clear in both of his local starts (137, 141 Final Rating). This is a tough spot for the promising, well bred son of Curlin. #7 Hidden Scroll (9-5) ran fast throughout in his local flat mile maiden romp in the slop (153 Final Rating). He looms a pace factor at the very least and this is a good two turn stakes test on dry land vs. quality competition. #5 Vekoma (7-2) won both of his starts last year including the Nashua (G3). He shows six works for this and figures to stalk the pace. #6 Signalman (9-2) ran well in all five starts last year including a trio of top three finishes in Kentucky Derby points races. He is hoping for contested early fractions and might be able to land a share. #1 Code of Honor (6-1) drew well and deserves another chance after a flat 4th in the Mucho Macho Man. He was a sharp debut winner at Saratoga last summer and overcame a bad start to finish a clear 2nd in the Champagne (G1) second time out. He is training well for this. THE PLAYS: #4 & #8 to win, Trifecta 1-4-5-7-8/1-4-5-7-8/6
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Bourbon War capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders (3-1-19)
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Latest Workout: 6f from the gate in 1:13.60 (3/11) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 25.
Comments: It has been a long time since we have seen Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion. He went 4-for-4 as a juvenile including a trio of grade one victories (Del Mar Futurity, American Pharoah Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile). The BC Juvenile has been a productive race so far. Show finisher Signalman returned to take the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). 5th place finisher Gunmetal Gray won the Sham Stakes (G3) in his next start, and 7th place finisher Mind Control won the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on New Year’s Day. Well Defined finished 12th in the Juvenile and captured the Sam F. Davis (G3) on Feb. 9. He was not a next-out winner (5th in Mucho Macho Man Jan. 5) but did become the fourth Juvenile runner to win a points race. He has a strong pedigree, Derby-winning connections, class, running style versatility, and is in great shape as the current Derby points leader. He returned to the work tab Jan. 9 and is expected to have two Derby preps this year (San Felipe & SA Derby likely targets). The San Felipe is on March 9 at Santa Anita Park, and the Santa Anita Derby is on April 6.
Derby Points (30)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:12 (1/11) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 25.
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s unbeaten colt got better as distances increased in a trio of 2018 starts. In his final start as a 2-year-old, he was the strong favorite in the Lost Alamitos Futurity (G1) on Dec. 8, and he stalked the pace and won for fun from the inside post at a mile and a sixteenth. He really kicked it in high gear in late stretch in that race and seems to want more ground. Troubled Los Al Futurity show finisher Extra Hope was a next-out allowance winner on a wet track at Santa Anita Jan. 31. Los Al Futurity runner-up Mucho Gusto won the Robert Lewis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 2. The son of City Zip returned to the work tab Jan. 9 and the latest word is that he will take on his stablemate Game Winner in the San Felipe on March 9. Bob Baffert is known to change his mind when it comes to Derby preps, so we shall see if his two big Derby contenders face off on March 9 at Santa Anita.
Derby Points (10)
(3) SIGNALMAN (General Quarters - Trip South, by Trippi)
Trainer (Ken McPeek) - Owner (Magdalena Racing)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.75 (15/44) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 23.
Comments: This one racked up the Derby points as a juvenile with top three finishes in the Breeders’ Futurity (2nd), BC Juvenile (3rd), and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (1st). He sure was consistent last year and had his first published workout of 2019 on Jan. 26. He makes his 3-year-old bow in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He has had five workouts this year (thru Feb. 23) and trainer Ken McPeek probably won’t have him fully cranked for his sophomore debut. I would like to see him finish up well and hit the board on Saturday while picking up a few more Derby points.
Derby Points (18)
(4) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.00 (1/3) at Payson Park on Feb. 22.
Comments: Could not have been more impressive in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile maiden special weight affair for three-year-olds, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and he widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. He is bred to handle a route of ground and could be any kind of performer. His aforementioned debut was on a wet track and I want to see if he can run the same race on dry land. We will learn much more about him in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, and he is the morning line favorite.
(5) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Latest Workout: 5f gate bullet in 59.20 (1/33) at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 24.
Comments: Lost for the first time after a bad start from the rail in the Heft Stakes at Laurel Park Dec. 29. He was clearly second best that day and talented winner Alwaysmining has now won three straight (2 stakes wins). Michael Trombetta’s improving colt shipped to Tampa Bay Downs and ran off the screen in the Pasco Stakes at seven panels after a slow start on Jan. 19, and he is now 3-for-4 with a 2nd in sprint races. He is targeting the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 9 and is training well for that engagement, and that will be his first try over a route of ground.
(6) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Comments: There have been eleven Derby points races so far this year, and War of Will had two of the better looking victories in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks and months. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Derby Points (60)
(7) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still green. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together.
Derby Points (20)
(8) INSTAGRAND (Into Mischief - Assets of War, by Lawyer Ron)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:26.60 (2/2) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 25.
Comments: He was untouchable in his first two dirt sprints last summer (both 10-length romps) including the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar. The $1.2 million purchase has not started since 8-11-18 and that was a decision made by his owner. I am not sure how far he ultimately wants to go but he certainly showed a lot of promise as a juvenile. He was expected to make his first 3-year-old start in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 9, but will instead run in the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct that same day. This was definitely the right move. He has not been seen in quite some time and the one turn mile in New York makes much more sense.
(9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24.
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 59.87 (1/6) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 23.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He was originally slated to go in the Remsen Stakes but got a break instead, and he returned to the work tab in Florida on Jan. 12. He has some route and sprint influences in his pedigree, and we will see how far he wants to go in the near future. He goes next in the Fountain of Youth, and we will learn much more about him in that event.
(11) GUNMETAL GRAY (Exchange Rate - Classofsixtythree, by Include)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (West Point Thoroughbreds and Jerry Hollendorfer)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:15.20 (14/23) at Santa Anita Park on March 1.
Comments: Has competed in four points races over a route of ground with a win in the Sham (G3) and runner-up finishes in the American Pharoah (G1) and Robert Lewis (G3). I thought that his Robert Lewis runner-up finish was his best race to date. He proved that he could handle a wet track that day and showed nice late interest over a speed favoring surface. I still think that he is a cut below the best at this stage but he does have some stamina and a decent late kick.
Derby Points (18)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Code of Honor, (13) Dream Maker, (14) Extra Hope, (15) Roadster, (16) Bourbon War, (17) Mucho, (18) Spinoff, (19) Tacitus, (20) Mucho Gusto
Kentucky Derby 2019 article by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
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