Mucho Gusto and Tacitus set this up for a closer. When two very good horses are battling on the lead at a mile and a quarter, you just know another quality horse will pick them off. Tax from post 12 also pushed the pace, and Code of Honor’s pilot John Velazquez had to be loving the race shape. He was patiently ridden from 9th, and he started to move up with a quarter of a mile remaining. He raced wide throughout and swung out even wider in the stretch, and rumbled down the middle to prevail by about three lengths. Tacitus fought with Mucho Gusto throughout and gamely finished a 1/2 length in front of that one for 2nd. The top three ran quality races and Tacitus settled for the runner-up spot once again (also 2nd in G1 Belmont and G2 Jim Dandy). The blinkers definitely got him in the race earlier, and he lost nothing in defeat. He will win one of these big races at some point. Mucho Gusto tried to steal it and probably would have if Tacitus did not get the equipment change. Hats off to Shug McGaughey for having Code of Honor in peak form for the mid-summer Derby. Endorsed rallied from 12th to complete the superfecta. Owendale was a bit more forwardly placed than expected from the rail, and he ended up an even 5th. Highest Honors sort of ran in place throughout and was right behind that one in 6th, and Tax gradually weakened to 7th. Chess Chief, Laughing Fox, and Scars Are Cool were next, and it was a big gap back to Looking At Bikinis (stumbled at start) and Everfast.
Jarrod Horak’s Top 5 Three-Year-Old Males (9-5-19)
#1 - OMAHA BEACH - Ack Ack (G3) at Churchill on Sept. 28 is the new comeback spot.
#2 - CODE OF HONOR - Top 3yo of second half with wins in Dwyer (G3) and Travers (G1).
#3 - TACITUS - Gem of consistency added blinkers and finished 2nd in Travers.
#4 - MAXIMUM SECURITY - Bounced back in Haskell (G1). PA Derby next.
#5 - GAME WINNER - Got sick and missed Travers. No fall plans have been announced.
Article by Jarrod Horak
Photo by Josh Chicorelli You can read all of our 3-year-old division reports on our Triple Crown 2019 page.
This race was originally scheduled to be run on turf at a mile and five-eighths. Instead, it was run in the slop at a mile and a quarter. The field was reduced to four, and Turco Bravo set the pace, and chalk Red Knight stalked from 2nd. The latter took the lead after a mile, but Highland Sky was breathing down his neck. Highland Sky took off in the stretch and was more than eight lengths in front at the end. Red Knight was 2nd and Turco Bravo was 3rd. Redicean never got involved and trailed throughout.
Riskaverse Stakes Recap (8-22-19) - Winner: Catch a Bid ($3.80)
The inner turf course was yielding and 20-1 longshot Dalika almost stole this one. She lead every step of the way under Jose Ortiz, except the one that counted. Catch a Bid stalked the pace in 4th, got closer in the stretch, and got her head down at the last possible moment under Irad Ortiz Jr. Xanthique raced in third place all the way around the track, and New and Improved was another nose back in 4th. Hotsy Totsy was 5th throughout and All Quality chased the pace and retreated to last place.
Fleet Indian Stakes Recap (8-23-19) - Winner: Newly Minted ($4.30)
This was a one-horse race all the way. Maiden Beauty was the early leader but that would not last long. Strong favorite Newly Minted was all over her from the outset, and she went well clear once that one weakened. She rolled by nine lengths in this nine furlong contest. Kid Is Frosty was clearly second best and Elegant Zip was best of the rest in 3rd. Wait a Minute and Maiden Beauty were next, and Behind the Couch was pulled up and vanned off.
Yaddo Stakes Recap (8-23-19) - Winner: Belle of the Spa ($64.00)
This was the upset of the day. Belle of the Spa did not have to work very hard to get to the lead, and she was absolutely crawling up front (25.08, 50.51, and 1:15.63). Race favorite Munchkin Money was sitting in 2nd, a length back for much of the running, and she got on even terms in the lane but could not go by in a neck defeat. Kressie was an even 3rd and was followed by Wegetsdamunnys and English Soul. Held Accountable was well behind the rest in last place.
Seeking the Ante Stakes Recap (8-23-19) - Winner: Fierce Lady ($4.20)
Time Limit was pressured by My Italian Rabbi, and Fierce Lady sat off of them in 3rd. The latter poked her head in front in the lane but Time Limit would not go away. Fierce Lady was ultimately best by a neck and Time Limit was 5+ clear of My Italian Rabbi. Violent Point and Big Q were next, and it was a country mile back to Wharf Cat.
Funny Cide Stakes Recap (8-23-19) - Winner: City Man ($6.50)
The money showed on City Man, and he did not disappoint. He tracked inside speed Bull of Bayern, and after putting that one away, he opened up and won by more than four lengths for Joel Rosario and Christophe Clement. I went with late runner Cleon Jones as my top choice, and he took action as well. He was 8- morning line but went off at 3-1. He rallied for the place, and Listentoyourheart was along to complete the trifecta. Theitalianamerican went from last to 4th, and Bull of Bayern weakened to 5th. Opportunist, Mission Wrapitup, Sky of Hook, and No Lime trailed.
West Point Stakes Recap (8-23-19) - Winner: Offering Plan ($6.40)
Everyonelovesjames had to go fast early to secure the early lead over a turf course labelled good. Mo Maverick chased that one and they opened up by many lengths for the first six furlongs. The lead was evaporating quickly and the whole complexion changed in the stretch. Therapist, Offering Plan, and Dot Matrix were the three big movers, and Offering Plan was traveling best late to prevail by a neck over Dot Matrix. Therapist got past a stubborn Everyonelovesjames in the battle for show honors. Hoboe was next, followed by Rapt and Mo Maverick.
Albany Stakes Recap (8-23-19) - Winner: Funny Guy ($17.00)
Funny Guy got the first run, and that was the key to his head victory. The pace was honest with Not That Brady showing the way. Just Right, Blindwillie McTell, and Kazmania prompted the pace, and Funny Guy was right behind that group. The early leaders started to weaken and Funny Guy made the first run, opened up by a length in a half in the stretch, and just had enough left to hold off my late running top choice Bankit. Doups Point got going late and comfortably secured the show. Not That Brady weakened to 4th, and just behind him were Blindwillie McTell and Just Right. The trailers were Kazmania, Daddy Knows, and Dancers for Token (well behind the others).
Promises Fulfilled and Mitole dueled for a half-mile, and the former was done early. Mitole was full of run and opened up a commanding lead in the stretch. He coasted home by three lengths, and Firenze Fire outfinished Killybegs Captain for the place. Air Strike passed tired rivals and finished 4th. Bon Raison was next and Promises Fulfilled faded to last in a below par effort. He was down on the inside, and that was not the place to be on Travers Day.
Ballerina Stakes (G1) Recap (8-24-19) - Winner: Come Dancing ($3.50)
Come Dancing looked good winning this. She had an uncomfortable start but Javier Castellano did not panic. She was wide and last early, but there were only five horses, and she moved up quickly, took over in the stretch, and was much the best by 3+ lengths. Dawn the Destroyer chased outside and was up for the place. Course specialist Special Relativity was best of the rest in 3rd. Separationofpowers dueled with Mia Mischief and they were separated by a neck at the back on the pack. The former took the worst of it. She bobbled at the start and ended up dueling inside. The trip and dead rail ruined her day, and she might be worth playing back next time.
H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) Recap (8-24-19) - Winner: Mind Control ($22.80)
Shancealot was the strong favorite and controlling speed from the rail. He may have lost this race at the draw. He was able to secure the early lead but was not racing on the best part of the track. He was clear by a length through a half-mile, and was 2+ clear in the stretch, but outside stalker Mind Control was gaining, along with late runner Hog Creek Hustle. The wire was rapidly approaching and three noses were together on the line. In the end, Mind Control got the nod over Hog Creek Hustle, and Shancealot was 3rd. Rowayton was another neck back in 4th. Nitrous went from last to 5th, and was followed by Call Paul, Borracho, The Big S, and Twelfth Labour.
Ballston Spa (G2) Recap (8-24-19) - Winner: Significant Form ($16.60)
Chad Brown entered three in this spot, and his longest priced runner emerged victorious. Conquest Hardcandy and Scottish Jig carved out honest splits, and Significant Form followed those two, moved up in the stretch, and held off Indian Blessing to win by a neck. Starship Jubilee edged Chad Brown trainee Fifty Five for the show, and Conquest Hardcandy was the fifth neck on the line. Hogans Holiday and Scottish Jig were next, and the two favorites Secret Message and Mascha never got involved.
This was the race of the day! Coach Rocks and She’s a Julie were the top two early, and the pace was honest. Elate was just behind them in 3rd, and the strong favorite was getting a perfect trip. She moved to the leaders under Jose Ortiz and briefly spurted away, but Midnight Bisou was gathering momentum from the back of the pack and the match race was on. The two favorites were inseparable down the lane and the bob of the nose went to Midnight Bisou. Elate lost nothing in defeat, and they were 8+ clear of show finisher She’s a Julie. Wow Cat rode the dead rail and ended up 4th, and Coach Rocks weakened to 5th. Golden Award faltered and was pulled up and walked off.
Sword Dancer Stakes (G1) Recap (8-24-19) - Winner: Annals of Time ($7.10)
Chad Brown had three in here. I thought he going to use his 60-1 outsider Proven Reserves as a rabbit, but that one never got involved. Instead, his recent import Ya Primo seemed intent on the lead under Jose Ortiz, and he battled with Channel Maker for at least a mile and a quarter. They were not flying, but the pace was honest and contested for the marathon distance. Channel Cat stole the Bowling Green (G2), and he was lurking behind the leaders this time. He made his move and took a short lead in the stretch, but he could hear footsteps. Annals and Time was the slight favorite for Chad Brown, and he was moving sightly better than Sadler’s Joy and beat that one by a neck. Channel Cat was 3rd and Channel Maker was 4th. Noble Thought, Pillar Mountain, Proven Reserves, Tiz Morning, and Ya Primo completed the order of finish.
Mucho Gusto and Tacitus set this up for a closer. When two very good horses are battling on the lead at a mile and a quarter, you just know another quality horse will pick them off. Tax from post 12 also pushed the pace, and Code of Honor’s pilot John Velazquez had to be loving the race shape. He was patiently ridden from 9th, and he started to move up with a quarter of a mile remaining. He raced wide throughout and swung out even wider in the stretch, and rumbled down the middle to prevail by about three lengths. Tacitus fought with Mucho Gusto throughout and gamely finished a 1/2 length in front of that one for 2nd. The top three ran quality races and Tacitus settled for the runner-up spot once again (also 2nd in G1 Belmont and G2 Jim Dandy). The blinkers definitely got him in the race earlier, and he lost nothing in defeat. He will win one of these big races at some point. Mucho Gusto tried to steal it and probably would have if Tacitus did not get the equipment change. Hats off to Shug McGaughey for having Code of Honor in peak form for the mid-summer Derby. Endorsed rallied from 12th to complete the superfecta. Owendale was a bit more forwardly placed than expected from the rail, and he ended up an even 5th. Highest Honors sort of ran in place throughout and was right behind that one in 6th, and Tax gradually weakened to 7th. Chess Chief, Laughing Fox, and Scars Are Cool were next, and it was a big gap back to Looking At Bikinis (stumbled at start) and Everfast.
Better Talk Now Stakes Recap (8-25-19) - Winner: Front Run the Fed ($4.90)
They key to this race was Bulletin. He was obviously a talented turf sprinter with speed, but could he go one mile? He went to the front as expected, and was chased by Swamp Rat, Regally Irish, and Our Braintrust. At 2-1 odds, he was a bad proposition, and ended up weakening to 3rd in the stretch. The two late runners dominated in the lane. Bourbon War and Front Run the Fed were in full flight to the wire, and the latter was moving best and prevailed by a 1/2 length. The margin of victory was deceiving. He was confidently handled late under Jose Lezcano. Bourbon War was clearly second best in a promising turf bow. Bulletin was best of the rest in 3rd. The strung-out field also included Swamp Rat, Our Braintrust, and Regally Irish.
The 2019 Travers Stakes (G1) is a bit more than a week away, and all the major preps have been run. There are a dozen horses seriously considering the mid-summer Derby at this stage. It promises to be the biggest horse racing event of the summer.
Check out my Travers video below! This week's video looks at the possible pace scenario for the mid-summer Derby.
Laughing Fox photo above courtesy of Josh Chicorelli
You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Salespage.
The 2019 Travers Stakes (G1) is still two weeks away, but all of the major preps have been run, and there are ten horses seriously considering the mid-summer Derby at this stage. It promises to be the biggest horse racing event of the summer, and it might have major implications on the 3-year-old title.
Check out my Travers video below! This week's video looks at the key prep races for the mid-summer Derby.
Saratoga Race Course photo above courtesy of Josh Chicorelli
You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Salespage.
The 2019 Travers Stakes (G1) is still three weeks away, but all of the major preps have been run, and there are eleven horses seriously considering the mid-summer Derby at this stage. It promises to be the biggest horse racing event of the summer, and it might have major implications on the 3-year-old title.
Check out my Travers video below!
Tacitus photo above courtesy of Josh Chicorelli
You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Salespage.
It all started with the Belmont Stakes (G1).Tacituswas supposed to win the final leg of the Triple Crown. He looked like a slam dunk on paper, but a funny thing happened. He drew the outside post and raced wide throughout. That would not have been a deal breaker, except for the fact that the rail was golden, and upset winner Sir Winston was riding the good inside.
Fast forward to the Jim Dandy, and Tacitus found a way to lose again. This time, he stumbles badly at the start and almost tosses jockey Jose Ortiz. He miraculously recovers and almost beats Tax.See my full Jim Dandy recap below.
My Kentucky Derby (G1) top choiceGame Winnerfinally made it back to the races on July 13, and he easily disposed of three overmatched rivals in the Los Alamitos Derby (G3). This was nothing more than a public workout, and the 2-year-old champ did his best work in late stretch. That race should set him up perfectly for the Travers (G1) at Saratoga Race Course on August 24.
Also on July 13,Mr. Moneycaptured his third straight grade three race in the Indiana Derby. He has obviously never been better, and his tactical speed is a big weapon. The Travers is being considered, but he is more likely to go in the West Virginia Derby (G3) at Mountaineer Park on Aug. 3. The latter race just makes more sense. He most likely wants nothing to do with grade one foes at a mile and a quarter.
Maximum Securitygot back on the beam in the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth Park on July 20. He got his revenge on King for a Day, and he gamely turned away Baffert trainee Mucho Gusto. The top two were well clear of show finisher Spun to Run. Everfast was 4th, followed by King for a Day and Bethlehem Road. The Travers might be next for the winner, but his steady numbers are not getting any better, and he sure did not look like he would thrive at ten furlongs. Mucho Gusto is consistent and improving, but he seems to have distance limitations. There was not much depth to this race.
Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) Recap (7-27-19) - Winner: Tax ($11.00)
Let’s just get this out of the way right now. No disrespect to Tax, but Tacitus was best in this race, and I am not saying that because he was my top pick. Actually, Tacitus was also best in his prior start in the Belmont Stakes (G1). In the Test of Champions, he was hung out to dry from the outside post while the winner was perched on the golden rail. In the Jim Dandy, he had a terrible stumble and lost all chance at the start. Tax was the early leader but War of Will surged to the front and showed the way for much of the opening six furlongs. The Preakness (G1) champ threw in the towel in short order and Tax took over in the lane and looked home free, but Tacitus emerged along the inside and made a race of it in deep stretch. Tax was traveling slightly better and prevailed by a bit less than a length. Tacitus ran a monster race to finish a clear 2nd, and Global Campaign was an okay 3rd. Laughing Fox edged War of Will for 4th, and Mihos trailed. One horse I absolutely did not like in this race was War of Will. He just has not improved from a numbers standpoint since January.
Jarrod Horak’s Top 5 Three-Year-Old Males (7-28-19)
#1 - OMAHA BEACH - Rebel/Arkansas Derby hero returned to work tab at Del Mar July 23.
#2 - GAME WINNER - Nice effort in Los Al Derby (G3). Had first Travers work July 27.
#3 - TACITUS - Belmont/Jim Dandy runner-up needs racing luck in Travers.
#4 - MAXIMUM SECURITY - Bounced back in Haskell (G1). Possible for Travers.
#5 - CODE OF HONOR - Dwyer (G3) return was outstanding. Travers is next.
Article by Jarrod Horak Photo by Josh Chicorelli You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Salespage.
Aqueduct Race Course 4/6/2019 Race Round-Up: (R10) Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/8th Mile Dirt, $750,000) Track Condition: Fast Final Time: 1:51.23
Tacitus proved his worth on Saturday when he overcame a troubled beginning and eventually got up to win by a length and a quarter over Tax.He now has two Gr. II wins under his belt and put himself atop the Kentucky Derby 2019leader board with 150 points.Traveling fourth down the backstretch, the son of Tapit went through fractions of 23.62, 46.91, 1:11.46, 1:37.81 before crossing the wire at 1:51.23.I have to say, this was an incredible run given the circumstances going into the first turn and the way he overcame adversity must sit well with bettors going into the Derby.Unless something crazy happens in the next two weeks I would imagine he’ll be a top three betting choice come May 4th.
Check out Today's Racing Digestfor handicapping products, analysis, and more! Tacitus capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
The top four runners in here were Tacitus, Tax, Haikal, and Math Wizard.Tax solidified his Derby ticket by earning 40 tokens for his second-place finish and now sits in 12th with 52 points.Haikal came into this race with 50 points so he was most likely going to the Derby anyway, but he bumped up his total to 70 after his third-place effort.Math Wizard ran well for fourth, however he will not have enough to qualify for the Derby.
Let’s look at the race round up for Saturday’s Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes:
#1 – Tacitus:Started well under Jose Ortiz but soon came under trouble due to Joevia coming across the field from post 11.Tax was a little bit ahead of Tacitus at this point who moved slightly outside Joevia going into the first turn.Due to this Ortiz had to pull up on the reins which caused his mount to drift outside which made Overdeliver drift further outside.Going into the backstretch Tacitus was moved down towards the rail and ran in fourth for much of the race before making a four-wide move into the stretch.He quickly had his sights set on Tax and soon headed the second-place finisher before powering away to win by a length and a quarter.
#2 – Tax: Had a great start from post one and was quickly joined by Joevia. Tax made a slight move outside of Joevia which caused further trouble to a few of the horses behind him.He settled in third down the backstretch before making the first jump on Not That Brady down the lane.He quickly took over the lead but had Tacitus right to his outside.He had a valiant effort but was no match for the winner and eventually finished second by a little more than a length.
#3 – Haikal: Was slow out of the gate like he usually is and settle between horses going into the first turn.He ended up in eighth down the backstretch and eventually had to make a move between the two Pletcher horses going into the final turn.Haikal skimmed the rail and kept fighting on to get up for third by a half length over Math Wizard.
#4 – Math Wizard: Ran evenly with Outshine to his outside out of the break.The jockey had to pull back on the reins slightly as Not That Brady pushed towards the front, but it was nothing too serious.He ended up in tenth on the backstretch where he got the jump on Haikal by splitting the two Pletcher horses.Entering the final turn, he was in fifth down by the rail and it looked like he would hold on for a third, but he was done running midway down the stretch.
#5 – Not That Brady: Broke well and was just able to avoid the traffic going into the first turn and ended up in third moving into the backstretch.He soon joined Joevia to his outside where the duo raced head to head leading up to the final turn.Joevia began to retreat at this point and Not That Brady went into the stretch with a slight lead over Tax.This lead did not last long, and the son of Big Brown faded to fifth losing by about five lengths.
#6 – Final Jeopardy: Had a clean break under Manny Franco and was quickly shuffled to fifth in between Tacitus and Overdeliever before the first turn.Down the backstretch he took up running in ninth before getting passed by Grumps Little Tots.He made up some ground entering the final turn and just got up for sixth over Joevia down the lane.Not a bad finish considering the circumstances going into the first turn.
#7 – Joevia (Disqualified and placed 11th): Took off from post 11 and made a strong move towards the rail going into the first turn.Due to this, Tacticus, Final Jeopardy, and Overdeliver were all negatively affected.Joevia was in first moving into the backstretch but was soon joined by Not That Brady where the two battled it out until Joevia began to retreat before the final turn.He was passed by Final Jeopardy down the lane to finish seventh but was eventually disqualified and placed last.
#8 – Hoffa’s Union: Did not break well but was able to avoid the trouble going into the first turn and sat about seventh in the early stages.Hoffa’s Union moved into fifth during the backstretch and really had no excuse from there.Entering the stretch, you can see the horse was done running so I feel it was too much too soon for this guy.
#9 – Grumps Little Tots: Began slowest of the group and was last going into the first turn.He soon passed Final Jeopardy but did little after that.Down the lane he was a little green and Lezcano pulled back on the reins signally he was finished at that point.
#10 – Outshine: Had an even beginning next to Math Wizard but Velazquez tried to push on towards the front runners entering the first turn.He was already wide at that point due to Overdeliver getting pushed further outside and ended up floating about seven-wide around the first turn.He was essentially done by this point but given the circumstances you could probably draw a line through this effort.
#11 – Overdeliver: Probably took the worst of the whole debacle going into the first turn and ended up going five to six around the first turn.He tried his best down the backstretch but ended up retreating before the final turn.You can probably draw a line through this effort as he arguably took the worst from the congestion going into the first turn.
About Josh:
Originally from Upstate New York, Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".
Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.
Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).
This is a huge week on the Road to Kentucky Derby 2019. Two-year-old champ Game Winner is the strong favorite in the Santa Anita Derby. Tacitus tops the Wood Memorial (G2), and Vekoma and Win Win Win square off in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2).
Check out Today's Racing Digestfor handicapping products, analysis, and more! Game Winner capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis for Saturday (4-6-19)
AQU 10 (G2 Wood Memorial, 9f) #10 OUTSHINE (6-1) might be in for a decent outside stalking trip. He is moving forward for Pletcher and exits a good 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). #2 Tacitus (5-2) earned his best career number in his first start vs. winners, first start after a layoff, and first stakes try in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) March 9. He is bred to get better as distances increase and could easily move forward again. He graduated at Aqueduct last fall and needs pace help. #4 Haikal (7-2) got plenty of pace help as my top choice in the Gotham (G3). He has to prove that he is more than a late running sprinter. #3 Hoffa’s Union (6-1) is the mystery horse. He won by the length of the stretch in his Laurel debut and was purchased privately by Mark Casse. The promising son of Union Rags is thrown to the wolves in an attempt to make the Kentucky Derby. #1 Tax (9-2) has been consistent but that Withers number should be taken with a grain of salt. Four horses from that race have run in points races since and none hit the board. #5 Final Jeopardy (8-1) earned a better number in a flat mile optional claiming win at GP March 3. This is his first two turn try and he figures to stalk the pace. The Plays: #10 to win, Exacta Box 2-10, Trifecta 2-10/1-2-3-5/2-10, Trifecta Key 10/1-2-3-4-5
SA 8 (G1 SA Derby, 9f) #1 ROADSTER (5-2) might sit the right tactical trip behind Instagrand and figures to get the jump on his chalky stablemate Game Winner. He was highly regarded last year and returned with a strong flat mile optional claiming victory March 1. #6 Game Winner (4-5) is the class of the field and could easily beat these. He does not have to win his final Derby prep but could easily get the job done for Rosario/Baffert. #5 Instagrand (3-1) is probably the one to catch but I am not sure how far he wants to go. He was sensational in a pair of sprint wins last summer including the Best Pal (G2) and returned with an okay 3rd in the Gotham (G3). #3 Nolo Contesto (6-1) is slowly improving for Sadler and projects a decent stalking trip under Talamo. He beat Omaha Beach in a local flat mile maiden race Jan 4, and that one has won twice since including the Rebel (G2). Roadster beat him last time but he might be fitter in his second start after a layoff. #2 More Ice (30-1) exits a wide, distant 3rd from post 10 in the El Camino Real Derby, and occupied that same spot in the Eddie Logan on turf in his final start as a 2-year-old. He has some ability but is not fast enough to threaten these. #4 Synthesis (30-1) moves to the George Papaprodromou barn after a distant 4th place finish in the San Vicente (G2). He graduated in a dirt route at Keeneland last fall and will probably try to get involved early but is not nearly as quick as Instagrand. The Plays:#1 to win, Exacta 1-5-6/3, Trifecta Key 1/3-6
KEE 10 (G2 Blue Grass, 9f) #8 WIN WIN WIN (7-2) is still an unknown commodity in routes after a wide, rallying show finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). All four of his sprint tries were solid and he could improve in his second try around two turns. He was right up on the pace in his first two wins but found gate trouble in his last three. His Pasco number at seven panels buries these and he has been on my Derby list for quite some time, so he’s my top pick. #2 Vekoma (9-5) won both of his starts around one turn last year and came back with a solid 3rd in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He should be fitter but there is no guarantee that he will excel at longer distances. #1 Somelikeithotbrown (10-1) won his last two on all-weather ground including the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) in front running fashion. I love his versatility and he is bred to handle dirt. He is the only entrant with a win at this distance and is a threat if he handles the surface switch. #3 Signalman (5-1) ran well in all three points races around two turns last year including a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). He returned with a subpar effort in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and will try to get involved late. #6 Dream Maker (12-1) is very inconsistent. The all or nothing type was sharp in his Churchill debut last June before flopping in a pair of stakes tries to end his juvenile campaign. He was sharp around two turns vs. optional claimers Feb 9 before throwing in another clunker in Tampa Bay Derby (G2). I have no idea what we will get from him in this event and all three of his stakes tries were poor. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/1-2-6, Exacta 1-2-6/8, Trifecta 1-2-6-8/1-2-6-8/3
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps for Saturday (3-30-19)
UAE Derby from Meydan (3-30-19) - Winner: Plus Que Parfait ($19.60)
The Americans made short work of this race, and two horses in desperate need of Derby points finished 1-2. Plus Que Parfait finished an okay 2nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill as a juvenile, but was nowhere in the Lecomte (G3) or Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds this winter. Gray Magician made one previous points race appearance and ended up a flat 4th in the Sham Stakes (G3). In the stretch run of the UAE Derby, Plus Que Parfait dove inside and split horses under Jose Ortiz, while Gray Magician was battling on along the outside, and the heads up ride by Ortiz made all of the difference. They both have enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby, but their form in US points races was not great, and I do not want to take a Dubai shipper on the first Saturday in May.
Florida Derby (G1) from Gulfstream Park (3-30-19) - Winner: Maximum Security ($11.60)
Pace makes the race, especially when the track is favoring speed. Forwardly placed runners won all of the main track races at Gulfstream on Saturday (3 front running winners), and this should have been a slam dunk for Hidden Scroll. The Florida Derby chalk was clearly the main speed from the rail, but for some inexplicable reason, his new rider Javier Castellano wrangled him back early and took away his main weapon. Maximum Security, a former maiden claimer, and Bodexpress, a maiden after four career starts, controlled the pace through extremely soft fractions and made it a parade. Neither had run two turns before, and they dominated from start to finish in their first stakes attempts. Maximum Security was 3+ lengths in front at the wire for Luis Saez and Jason Servis, and Bodexpress was clear of the show by another 3+ lengths. Code of Honor emerged from the pack and held off Bourbon War for the show by a bit less than a length, and they were well clear of late running turf specialist Current. Hidden Scroll was next, and his connections thought about the tactics of this race way too much. He went way too fast early in the Fountain of Youth, and they overcompensated to say the least. All they had to do was put the inside speed on the lead through moderate fractions. That was his best and only chance to succeed, and when you have speed and the rail at Gulfstream, you take that advantage and let the chips fall where they may. Union’s Destiny was next, followed by Harvey Wallbanger, Everfast, Garter and Tie, and Hard Belle.
(1)GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:13.40 (1/11) at Santa Anita on April 1.
Comments: We finally got to see Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he did not disappoint despite losing by a nose. He was supposed to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes on March 9, but that was was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He shipped to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and the strong favorite rallied to miss by a nose. Fellow California shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on him and won the battle, but Game Winner brushed off the rust and appears poised to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6. I am sure that Bob Baffert is not worried about losing a mile and a sixteenth prep. He just needed to get a race into his talented runner and the Rebel Stakes was a means to an end. The goal is to peak on the first Saturday in May, and that may very well happen. Actually, he does not need to win the SA Derby either. A solid underneath finish from off the pace will suffice.
Derby Points (45)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:12.80 (1/24) at Santa Anita on March 30.
Comments: Bob Baffert’s other unbeaten juvenile was also supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe, and ended up in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park last Saturday due to the well documented surface issues at Santa Anita Park. He ran a quality race from the outside post and missed by a neck while racing wide throughout under Drayden van Dyke. I fully expect him to be much fitter in his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13, and Jose Ortiz will be his new rider. I would not be surprised to see both Baffert runners win their final Derby points races and head to Churchill Downs as the two favorites.
Derby Points (25)
(3) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 46.80 (1/7) at Sunland Park on April 4.
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy put his three-race all-weather route win streak on the line in the Sunland Derby (G3) on March 24, and he finished strongly to miss by a neck in a fine effort. The Sunland Derby may have been his best effort yet because he proved that he could sit behind horses and handle regular dirt. He owns dangerous early-pressing versatility and should be able to handle a mile and a quarter. He remains at Sunland Park and could end up running in one more race prior to Derby if he needs more points. The Lexington Stakes (G2) at Keeneland on April 13 is the likely target if he runs again before the Kentucky Derby.
Derby Points (30)
(4) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.80 (11/31) at Payson Park on March 31.
Comments: Returned to the list for the second time after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs, and he sure seems like a mile and a quarter type. He will have his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 6, and he is the morning line favorite.
Derby Points (50)
(5) SPINOFF (Hard Spun - Zaftig, by Gone West)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Werthheimer and Frere)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 48.85 (1/6) at Palm Beach Downs on April 3.
Comments: I have liked this one since he ran 3rd in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his second career start last summer. It was great to see him stretch out and improve in his romping Tampa Bay Downs return Feb. 22, and he continued his upward trajectory with an excellent runner-up finish from an outer post in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds on March 23. His tactical speed in a big asset and he appears to be getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (40)
(6) OMAHA BEACH (War Front - Charming, by Seeking the Soul)
Trainer (Richard Mandella) - Owner (Fox Hill Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.80 (1/25) at Santa Anita Park on March 29.
Comments: The light bulb came on in his romping wet track maiden win in an extended sprint at Santa Anita Feb. 2, and he followed that up with a nose victory over 2-year-old champion Game Winner in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park March 16. In the latter race, he sat a great tactical trip and got the jump on the returning champ, and the top two were well clear of the rest. His numbers continue to climb and he might be peaking at the right time. He will return to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby (G1) April 13, and Baffert trainee Improbable will be waiting.
Derby Points (37.5)
(7) CODE OF HONOR (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. Fast forward to his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Florida Derby (G1), and he got no pace help and ended up 3rd (beaten 6+ lengths). I like the versatility he has shown in five career starts, but he has suddenly become more pace dependent than ever. I was never completely sold on his stamina beyond a mile and a sixteenth, and I still do not know how far he really wants to go. He qualified for the Kentucky Derby in the Fountain of Youth, so the Florida Derby was not important from a points perspective. I wish he would have been closer to the pace on Saturday, and there are more questions than answers, which is a recurring theme with this crop.
Derby Points (74)
(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (6/15) at Fair Hill (all-weather training) on March 30.
Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did just enough in that event to remain on my list. He deserves a final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early. His final Derby prep will come in the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland on April 6, and he is the second choice on the morning line.
Derby Points (10)
(9) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.56 (3/10) at Palm Beach Downs on March 30.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep, which will be at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) on April 6. He is the Blue Grass favorite and he figures to stalk the pace from an inner post.
Derby Points (10 points)
(10) ROADSTER (Quality Road - Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost)
Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:12.60 (1/19) at Santa Anita Park on March 31.
Comments: I have been patiently waiting to get one of my original “exceptional eleven” members back on my list ever since his sharp optional claiming win at Santa Anita on March 1. That was his first start since a show finish in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last summer, and he sure was impressive. We saw what he was capable of in his winning debut at Del Mar last July. He overcame the intimidating inside post in his professional debut at Del Mar, and his return victory was a big step in the right direction. He stalked the pace in his first route try on March 1 and pulled clear to easily best highly regarded John Sadler runner Nolo Contesto. He will get his first and only points race test in the Santa Anita Derby on April 6, and he has four solid works in preparation for that event. He will qualify for Kentucky Derby 2019 with a 1st or 2nd place finish.
(11) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Latest Workout: 4f in 50.20 (2/5) at Payson Park on April 5.
Comments: I liked the progress he made in his first four starts, but I was expecting more in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He showed a bit more maturity in that event, but did not get a ton of pace help and flattened out late after making nice progress (raced wide) to get into contention turning for home. I still think there is a bit more talent than he has shown, and if he can break a bit better and work out a decent trip, he could jump up and win a graded event. He is frequently at the mercy of the pace and needs racing luck. He maintains his position at the bottom of the list, and it looks like he will run in one final points race in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13.
Derby Points (30)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Long Range Toddy, (13) Bourbon War, (14) By My Standards, (15) Maximum Security, (16) Haikal, (17) War of Will, (18) Cutting Humor, (19) Plus Que Parfait, (20) Gray Magician, (21) Bodexpress
Kentucky Derby 2019 blog by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Salespage later this spring.
