Remsen Stakes 2023 Analysis

By Jarrod Horak

The road to Kentucky Derby 2024 continues at Aqueduct on Saturday, December 2, and I have included Remsen Stakes 2023 picks below. The Grade 2 event for 2-year-olds has a $250,000 purse and the ten entrants will be traveling 1 1/18 miles on the main track. It is the 9th race on Dec. 2 and the top five finishers will earn Derby points (10-5-3-2-1). 

Remsen Stakes 2023 Picks & Final Time Ratings 

Domestic Product split a 10-horse field in his six panel debut at Saratoga on Aug. 5, and he never got seriously involved at 5-1 that day. He added blinkers and stretched out to 1 1/8 miles on Oct. 27, and he attended to pace and pushed clear to graduate by 4 1/2 lengths. Manny Franco seemingly chose this one over Sierra Leone, and he is the only entrant with experience and a win at nine panels.

Dornoch is a highly regarded $325k son of Good Magic. He landed the place in his dirt sprint bow in the slop on July 29, and was clearly second best as the beaten favorite while still a maiden in the Sapling on Aug. 26. He made the lead, turned away a mid race challenge, and kicked clear as the chalk in a nice special weight victory at 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland on Oct. 14. He should be in the hunt throughout under his winning rider Luis Saez.

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Kentucky Derby 2023 Video Series: Grade 3 Withers Stakes

Here is my latest road to #kyderby 2023 video featuring analysis of the Withers Stakes.   

Check out free stakes picks, Santa Anita full card analysis, and more at The Runaway Horse.  

Red Smith Stakes 2019 Video from Aqueduct

Check out my Red Smith Stakes 2019 video below!

Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Recap: Tacitus over Tax in Wood Memorial

Aqueduct Race Course
4/6/2019
Race Round-Up: (R10) Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/8th Mile Dirt, $750,000)
Track Condition: Fast
Final Time: 1:51.23

Tacitus proved his worth on Saturday when he overcame a troubled beginning and eventually got up to win by a length and a quarter over Tax.  He now has two Gr. II wins under his belt and put himself atop the Kentucky Derby 2019 leader board with 150 points.  Traveling fourth down the backstretch, the son of Tapit went through fractions of 23.62, 46.91, 1:11.46, 1:37.81 before crossing the wire at 1:51.23.  I have to say, this was an incredible run given the circumstances going into the first turn and the way he overcame adversity must sit well with bettors going into the Derby.  Unless something crazy happens in the next two weeks I would imagine he’ll be a top three betting choice come May 4th.

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Tacitus capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

The top four runners in here were Tacitus, Tax, Haikal, and Math Wizard.  Tax solidified his Derby ticket by earning 40 tokens for his second-place finish and now sits in 12th with 52 points.  Haikal came into this race with 50 points so he was most likely going to the Derby anyway, but he bumped up his total to 70 after his third-place effort.  Math Wizard ran well for fourth, however he will not have enough to qualify for the Derby.


Let’s look at the race round up for Saturday’s Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes:


#1 – Tacitus:  Started well under Jose Ortiz but soon came under trouble due to Joevia coming across the field from post 11.  Tax was a little bit ahead of Tacitus at this point who moved slightly outside Joevia going into the first turn.  Due to this Ortiz had to pull up on the reins which caused his mount to drift outside which made Overdeliver drift further outside.  Going into the backstretch Tacitus was moved down towards the rail and ran in fourth for much of the race before making a four-wide move into the stretch.  He quickly had his sights set on Tax and soon headed the second-place finisher before powering away to win by a length and a quarter.


#2 – Tax: Had a great start from post one and was quickly joined by Joevia. Tax made a slight move outside of Joevia which caused further trouble to a few of the horses behind him.  He settled in third down the backstretch before making the first jump on Not That Brady down the lane.  He quickly took over the lead but had Tacitus right to his outside.  He had a valiant effort but was no match for the winner and eventually finished second by a little more than a length.


#3 – Haikal: Was slow out of the gate like he usually is and settle between horses going into the first turn.  He ended up in eighth down the backstretch and eventually had to make a move between the two Pletcher horses going into the final turn.  Haikal skimmed the rail and kept fighting on to get up for third by a half length over Math Wizard.


#4 – Math Wizard: Ran evenly with Outshine to his outside out of the break.  The jockey had to pull back on the reins slightly as Not That Brady pushed towards the front, but it was nothing too serious.  He ended up in tenth on the backstretch where he got the jump on Haikal by splitting the two Pletcher horses.  Entering the final turn, he was in fifth down by the rail and it looked like he would hold on for a third, but he was done running midway down the stretch.


#5 – Not That Brady: Broke well and was just able to avoid the traffic going into the first turn and ended up in third moving into the backstretch.  He soon joined Joevia to his outside where the duo raced head to head leading up to the final turn.  Joevia began to retreat at this point and Not That Brady went into the stretch with a slight lead over Tax.  This lead did not last long, and the son of Big Brown faded to fifth losing by about five lengths.


#6 – Final Jeopardy: Had a clean break under Manny Franco and was quickly shuffled to fifth in between Tacitus and Overdeliever before the first turn.  Down the backstretch he took up running in ninth before getting passed by Grumps Little Tots.  He made up some ground entering the final turn and just got up for sixth over Joevia down the lane.  Not a bad finish considering the circumstances going into the first turn.


#7 – Joevia (Disqualified and placed 11th): Took off from post 11 and made a strong move towards the rail going into the first turn.  Due to this, Tacticus, Final Jeopardy, and Overdeliver were all negatively affected.  Joevia was in first moving into the backstretch but was soon joined by Not That Brady where the two battled it out until Joevia began to retreat before the final turn.  He was passed by Final Jeopardy down the lane to finish seventh but was eventually disqualified and placed last.  

#8 – Hoffa’s Union: Did not break well but was able to avoid the trouble going into the first turn and sat about seventh in the early stages.  Hoffa’s Union moved into fifth during the backstretch and really had no excuse from there.  Entering the stretch, you can see the horse was done running so I feel it was too much too soon for this guy.


#9 – Grumps Little Tots: Began slowest of the group and was last going into the first turn.  He soon passed Final Jeopardy but did little after that.  Down the lane he was a little green and Lezcano pulled back on the reins signally he was finished at that point.


#10 – Outshine: Had an even beginning next to Math Wizard but Velazquez tried to push on towards the front runners entering the first turn.  He was already wide at that point due to Overdeliver getting pushed further outside and ended up floating about seven-wide around the first turn.  He was essentially done by this point but given the circumstances you could probably draw a line through this effort.


#11 – Overdeliver: Probably took the worst of the whole debacle going into the first turn and ended up going five to six around the first turn.  He tried his best down the backstretch but ended up retreating before the final turn.  You can probably draw a line through this effort as he arguably took the worst from the congestion going into the first turn.


​About Josh:


Originally from Upstate New York,  Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".


Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga  Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.  


​​Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).

Kentucky Derby 2019 Video Series Featuring Hoffa's Union

My Kentucky Derby 2019 under the radar video series continues with the Wood Memorial (G2). In this video, I take a look at Hoffa's Union. 

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Hoffa's Union capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Article and Video by Jarrod Horak

You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.  

Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Preview: Tacitus Solid Favorite in Wood Memorial

Aqueduct Race Course
4/6/2019
Race 10: Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/8th Mile Dirt, $750,000)
Available Points: 100-40-20-10
Weather: Possible high into the 60s with about 20% of precipitation.  It is supposed to rain for much of the day on Friday.


The $750,000 Gr. II Wood Memorial will feature 11 runners and 170 Kentucky Derby 2019 qualifying points on the line.  There has been a slew of upsets on the Derby trail this year so there could be another shake up if that trend continues.  Two horses in here already have enough points for the Derby (Tacitus and Haikal) so these others will have to put their best hoof forward to make it to the first Saturday in May. 

Without further ado, let’s look at the contenders:


2019 Wood Memorial Contenders


1 - Tax
Junior Alvarado
Danny Gargan
9-2


2 - Tacitus
Jose Ortiz
Bill Mott
5-2


3 - Hoffa’s Union
Dylan Davis
Mark Casse
6-1


4 - Haikal
Rajiv Maragh
Kiaran McLaughlin
7-2


5 - Final Jeopardy
Manny Franco
Jason Servis
8-1


6 - Overdeliver
Kendrick Carmouche
Todd Pletcher
20-1


7 - Not That Brady
Reylu Gutierrez
Rudy Rodriguez
20-1


8 - Grumps Little Tots
Jose Lezcano
Jason Servis
30-1


9 - Math Wizard
Eric Cancel
Saffie Joseph
30-1


10 - Outshine
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
6-1


11 - Joevia
Nik Juarez
Greg Sacco
30-1


#1 – Tax: The son of Arch comes into this race with a 4-2-1-1 record and just over $185K in career earnings.  The dark bay gelding started his career in the maiden claiming ranks under Ben Colebrook and was picked up by Danny Gargan back in October.  Last time out in the Gr. II Withers, Tax had a slight stumble out of the gate but rebounded quickly to be forwardly placed down on the rail.  At the top of the stretch he continued to make up ground down on the rail and it looked like he might get closed off by Not That Brady but the leader moved out just enough for Tax to get by and hold on by a head.  This will be the third time Tax will try the 9F distance so that should not be a problem however he does need a top four finish to qualify for the Derby.  Currently, he sits in 25th with 12 points and if he wants to guarantee his spot a second or third place finish will be needed.


#2 – Tacitus: Will make his second start of 2019 with his most recent start coming March 9th in the Gr. II Tampa Bay Derby.  He was able to find room on the rail down the stretch and finished very nicely under Jose Ortiz.  The son of Tapit already has 50 points and sits in 9th on the Derby leaderboard so his spot is already locked up.  I’d like to see a good finish and him lengthening his stride approaching the wire.  If he does that, I believe he’ll be a solid bet come Derby day.  Strong win contender.


#3 – Hoffa’s Union: A bit of an unknown compared to the rest of this group as he only has one start under his belt which came in an 8.5F gate to wire performance back in late February down at Laurel.  The gelding by Union Rags has a nice pedigree so I don’t think the distance should be a problem however he is stepping up in class here after his maiden breaking score.  He’ll be up on the pace, if not setting it under Dylan Davis and with Mark Casse as the trainer you cannot discount this guy.  Consider using in the exotics.


#4 – Haikal: Won the Gr. III Gotham Stakes back here on March 9th in which he was able to close into a fast pace from the early stages.  Midway down the stretch it looked like he was dead in the water but the front three were shortening their strides and Rajiv Maragh was able to get the son of Daaher up to win by a length at the wire.  The time was solid as he crossed the wire in 1:35 for the 8F distance but I am still not sure if he wants to go much longer.  As with Tacitcus, he has 50 points, so his Derby ticket is already punched.  Haikal has won three straight races and has been steadily improving in all his races and if the pace is fast enough, he could be flying home late again.


#5 – Final Jeopardy: Coming from the same connections that got Maximum Security home in the Gr. I Florida Derby last week, Final Jeopardy has two wins and one third place finish from three starts. He will be trying the 9F distance for the first time and being out of Street Sense by an Unbridled’s Song mare Addison Run I feel this should be within his wheelhouse.  He’s shown some versatility in all three starts but will likely be placed mid pack during the early stages.  Manny Franco will be in the saddle and with Servis, the duo has won at a 43% clip in the last 60 days (from seven starts).   


#6 – Overdeliver: One of two Todd Pletcher runners and this one will have Kendrick Carmouche in the irons.  I imagine this one will be forwardly placed as Outshine looks to be more of a pace horse so this one could be setting it up for his stablemate.  Last time out, he finished second behind Win Win Win who is running in the Blue Grass down at Keeneland and two races back he beat Bodexpress who finished second in the Florida Derby last week.   His sire, Overanalyze won twice at the 9F distance and finished third in another so the distance should not be a problem.  This will only be his third career start and first since January 19th.


#7 – Not That Brady: This one was under a nice progression before finishing last in the Gr. III Gotham Stakes back here on March 9th.  He took off from the seven post that day and had to go wide into the first turn so him not getting to the front could have thrown him off.  Two races back, he finished right behind Tax in the Gr. III Withers at this distance so a rebound effort would not be out of the question.  Look for Gutierrez to have him forwardly placed during the early stages.


#8 – Grumps Little Tots: Also trained by Jason Servis, the son of Sky Mesa has yet to finish off the board in four starts.  He broke his maiden last time out going 8F on February 18th, but the time was rather slow, so I feel he’ll be up against it on Saturday.  Jose Lezcano will get the mount as Franco opts to ride Final Jeopardy so that could be a telling sign.    


#9 – Math Wizard: Comes into this race with a 7-2-1-2 record with five of those starts coming in the claiming ranks.  He did finish behind Maximum Security last December and then came right back to break his maiden by six lengths in the following race.  This is another one who likes to be forwardly placed although he did rally for second in his last start from last place (six horse field).  The son of Algorithms will be trying the 9F distance for the first time and from his past competition I think the odds are against him.  Will look elsewhere.


#10 – Outshine: Ran a solid second behind Tacitus in the Gr. II Tampa Bay Derby under Joel Rosario last time out.  He gets Johnny V back and with Pletcher’s recent Derby success he could be peaking at the right time. His dam, Life Lesson was mostly a sprinter but being out of Malibu Moon he may be able to get the distance.  This one will be off the pace in the early stages and will need fast fractions to make a late run.  Outshine currently sits in 22nd on the leaderboard with 20 points so a second or third would be needed for him to make it to the Derby.  Can’t discount him in this spot.


#11 – Joevia: The Greg Sacco trainee has only raced three times and has yet to finish out of the exacta.  Last time out, the son of Shanghai Bobby finished second behind Alwaysmining in the Private Term Stakes at Laurel back on March 16th.  This guy should be forwardly placed, and Nik Juarez will make the trip to New York for this race.  Will not use him here.


Top Four: 2 – 10 – 6 - 3


About Josh:


Originally from Upstate New York,  Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".


Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga  Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.  


​​Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).

Jerome Stakes 2019 Video Analysis - Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race

Check out my Jerome Stakes 2019 video analysis for Today's Racing Digest.

Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: Remsen Stakes Analysis

Trainer Chad Brown finished 2nd in the Derby with Good Magic earlier this year and has several promising Kentucky Derby 2019 candidates including Remsen Stakes contender Network Effect. 

Network Effect has only started twice and he ran well both times. If he is going to win his first stakes race on Saturday, he will have to get past Maximus Mischief. The Parx shipper is 2-for-2 and should makes his presence felt throughout at Aqueduct on Dec. 1. 

Remsen Stakes 2018 Analysis (12-1-18)

AQU 8 (G2 Remsen, 9f) Looking at the TRD Race Header, Network Effect has the best combination of class (RCL) and CPR (see lines 4-5 in the race header). #5 NETWORK EFFECT (7-5) followed up a sharp stalk/pounce debut maiden win in an extended sprint at Saratoga with a clear place finish in the G3 Nashua. He has a strong local stakes effort under his belt and figures to be tough to handle today for Castellano/Brown. #6 Maximus Mischief (6-5) romped in both sprint starts at Parx and he owns the best overall numbers. He gets a class and stamina test in this spot, and he has beaten a total of eight horses in two starts (beat just 2 rivals Oct 20). #1 Jungle Warrior (8-1) switches surfaces for his new trainer Jimmy Jerkens. #3 Bourbon War (5-1) won his off the turf bow at Aqueduct at one mile Nov 14. He has a strong pedigree and Ortiz Jr. hops aboard for Mark Hennig. THE PLAYS: Exacta 1-3/5, Trifecta 5/1-3/ALL, Trifecta 5/ALL/1-3

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Cigar Mile Stakes Day 2018 Video Picks

Check out my Cigar Mile Day 2018 stakes video picks for Today's Racing Digest. 

Cigar Mile 2017 Video Analysis

Check out my 2017 Cigar Mile video for Today's Racing Digest.

Video race of the week: 2016 Red Smith Handicap with Wake Forest

Wake Forest is the 8-5 morning line favorite in Saturday's G3 Red Smith Handicap at Aqueduct. Can anyone beat him? I sure hope so! Watch my video analysis below for contenders and wagering strategies.