Here is my latest handicapping video featuring win picks for Pegasus World Cup from Gulfstream Park on 1-23-21.
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Showing posts with label Tax horse. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tax horse. Show all posts
Friday, January 22, 2021
Saturday, August 17, 2019
Travers Stakes 2019 Video Preview #3: Pace
The 2019 Travers Stakes (G1) is a bit more than a week away, and all the major preps have been run. There are a dozen horses seriously considering the mid-summer Derby at this stage. It promises to be the biggest horse racing event of the summer.
Check out my Travers video below! This week's video looks at the possible pace scenario for the mid-summer Derby.
Laughing Fox photo above courtesy of Josh Chicorelli
You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Sales page.
Check out my Travers video below! This week's video looks at the possible pace scenario for the mid-summer Derby.
Laughing Fox photo above courtesy of Josh Chicorelli
You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Sales page.
Saturday, August 3, 2019
Travers Stakes 2019 Video Preview: Game Winner, Maximum Security, Tacitus
The 2019 Travers Stakes (G1) is still three weeks away, but all of the major preps have been run, and there are eleven horses seriously considering the mid-summer Derby at this stage. It promises to be the biggest horse racing event of the summer, and it might have major implications on the 3-year-old title.
Check out my Travers video below!
Tacitus photo above courtesy of Josh Chicorelli
You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Sales page.
Check out my Travers video below!
Tacitus photo above courtesy of Josh Chicorelli
You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Sales page.
Sunday, July 28, 2019
Bad Luck Continues for Tacitus in 2019 Jim Dandy Stakes
It all started with the Belmont Stakes (G1). Tacitus was supposed to win the final leg of the Triple Crown. He looked like a slam dunk on paper, but a funny thing happened. He drew the outside post and raced wide throughout. That would not have been a deal breaker, except for the fact that the rail was golden, and upset winner Sir Winston was riding the good inside.
Fast forward to the Jim Dandy, and Tacitus found a way to lose again. This time, he stumbles badly at the start and almost tosses jockey Jose Ortiz. He miraculously recovers and almost beats Tax. See my full Jim Dandy recap below.
My Kentucky Derby (G1) top choice Game Winner finally made it back to the races on July 13, and he easily disposed of three overmatched rivals in the Los Alamitos Derby (G3). This was nothing more than a public workout, and the 2-year-old champ did his best work in late stretch. That race should set him up perfectly for the Travers (G1) at Saratoga Race Course on August 24.
Also on July 13, Mr. Money captured his third straight grade three race in the Indiana Derby. He has obviously never been better, and his tactical speed is a big weapon. The Travers is being considered, but he is more likely to go in the West Virginia Derby (G3) at Mountaineer Park on Aug. 3. The latter race just makes more sense. He most likely wants nothing to do with grade one foes at a mile and a quarter.
Maximum Security got back on the beam in the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth Park on July 20. He got his revenge on King for a Day, and he gamely turned away Baffert trainee Mucho Gusto. The top two were well clear of show finisher Spun to Run. Everfast was 4th, followed by King for a Day and Bethlehem Road. The Travers might be next for the winner, but his steady numbers are not getting any better, and he sure did not look like he would thrive at ten furlongs. Mucho Gusto is consistent and improving, but he seems to have distance limitations. There was not much depth to this race.
Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) Recap (7-27-19) - Winner: Tax ($11.00)
Let’s just get this out of the way right now. No disrespect to Tax, but Tacitus was best in this race, and I am not saying that because he was my top pick. Actually, Tacitus was also best in his prior start in the Belmont Stakes (G1). In the Test of Champions, he was hung out to dry from the outside post while the winner was perched on the golden rail. In the Jim Dandy, he had a terrible stumble and lost all chance at the start. Tax was the early leader but War of Will surged to the front and showed the way for much of the opening six furlongs. The Preakness (G1) champ threw in the towel in short order and Tax took over in the lane and looked home free, but Tacitus emerged along the inside and made a race of it in deep stretch. Tax was traveling slightly better and prevailed by a bit less than a length. Tacitus ran a monster race to finish a clear 2nd, and Global Campaign was an okay 3rd. Laughing Fox edged War of Will for 4th, and Mihos trailed. One horse I absolutely did not like in this race was War of Will. He just has not improved from a numbers standpoint since January.
Jarrod Horak’s Top 5 Three-Year-Old Males (7-28-19)
#1 - OMAHA BEACH - Rebel/Arkansas Derby hero returned to work tab at Del Mar July 23.
#2 - GAME WINNER - Nice effort in Los Al Derby (G3). Had first Travers work July 27.
#3 - TACITUS - Belmont/Jim Dandy runner-up needs racing luck in Travers.
#4 - MAXIMUM SECURITY - Bounced back in Haskell (G1). Possible for Travers.
#5 - CODE OF HONOR - Dwyer (G3) return was outstanding. Travers is next.
Article by Jarrod Horak
Photo by Josh Chicorelli
You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Sales page.
Fast forward to the Jim Dandy, and Tacitus found a way to lose again. This time, he stumbles badly at the start and almost tosses jockey Jose Ortiz. He miraculously recovers and almost beats Tax. See my full Jim Dandy recap below.
My Kentucky Derby (G1) top choice Game Winner finally made it back to the races on July 13, and he easily disposed of three overmatched rivals in the Los Alamitos Derby (G3). This was nothing more than a public workout, and the 2-year-old champ did his best work in late stretch. That race should set him up perfectly for the Travers (G1) at Saratoga Race Course on August 24.
Also on July 13, Mr. Money captured his third straight grade three race in the Indiana Derby. He has obviously never been better, and his tactical speed is a big weapon. The Travers is being considered, but he is more likely to go in the West Virginia Derby (G3) at Mountaineer Park on Aug. 3. The latter race just makes more sense. He most likely wants nothing to do with grade one foes at a mile and a quarter.
Maximum Security got back on the beam in the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth Park on July 20. He got his revenge on King for a Day, and he gamely turned away Baffert trainee Mucho Gusto. The top two were well clear of show finisher Spun to Run. Everfast was 4th, followed by King for a Day and Bethlehem Road. The Travers might be next for the winner, but his steady numbers are not getting any better, and he sure did not look like he would thrive at ten furlongs. Mucho Gusto is consistent and improving, but he seems to have distance limitations. There was not much depth to this race.
Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) Recap (7-27-19) - Winner: Tax ($11.00)
Let’s just get this out of the way right now. No disrespect to Tax, but Tacitus was best in this race, and I am not saying that because he was my top pick. Actually, Tacitus was also best in his prior start in the Belmont Stakes (G1). In the Test of Champions, he was hung out to dry from the outside post while the winner was perched on the golden rail. In the Jim Dandy, he had a terrible stumble and lost all chance at the start. Tax was the early leader but War of Will surged to the front and showed the way for much of the opening six furlongs. The Preakness (G1) champ threw in the towel in short order and Tax took over in the lane and looked home free, but Tacitus emerged along the inside and made a race of it in deep stretch. Tax was traveling slightly better and prevailed by a bit less than a length. Tacitus ran a monster race to finish a clear 2nd, and Global Campaign was an okay 3rd. Laughing Fox edged War of Will for 4th, and Mihos trailed. One horse I absolutely did not like in this race was War of Will. He just has not improved from a numbers standpoint since January.
Jarrod Horak’s Top 5 Three-Year-Old Males (7-28-19)
#1 - OMAHA BEACH - Rebel/Arkansas Derby hero returned to work tab at Del Mar July 23.
#2 - GAME WINNER - Nice effort in Los Al Derby (G3). Had first Travers work July 27.
#3 - TACITUS - Belmont/Jim Dandy runner-up needs racing luck in Travers.
#4 - MAXIMUM SECURITY - Bounced back in Haskell (G1). Possible for Travers.
#5 - CODE OF HONOR - Dwyer (G3) return was outstanding. Travers is next.
Article by Jarrod Horak
Photo by Josh Chicorelli
You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Sales page.
Saturday, April 13, 2019
Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Recap: Tacitus over Tax in Wood Memorial
Aqueduct Race Course
4/6/2019
Race Round-Up: (R10) Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/8th Mile Dirt, $750,000)
Track Condition: Fast
Final Time: 1:51.23
Tacitus proved his worth on Saturday when he overcame a troubled beginning and eventually got up to win by a length and a quarter over Tax. He now has two Gr. II wins under his belt and put himself atop the Kentucky Derby 2019 leader board with 150 points. Traveling fourth down the backstretch, the son of Tapit went through fractions of 23.62, 46.91, 1:11.46, 1:37.81 before crossing the wire at 1:51.23. I have to say, this was an incredible run given the circumstances going into the first turn and the way he overcame adversity must sit well with bettors going into the Derby. Unless something crazy happens in the next two weeks I would imagine he’ll be a top three betting choice come May 4th.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Tacitus capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
The top four runners in here were Tacitus, Tax, Haikal, and Math Wizard. Tax solidified his Derby ticket by earning 40 tokens for his second-place finish and now sits in 12th with 52 points. Haikal came into this race with 50 points so he was most likely going to the Derby anyway, but he bumped up his total to 70 after his third-place effort. Math Wizard ran well for fourth, however he will not have enough to qualify for the Derby.
Let’s look at the race round up for Saturday’s Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes:
#1 – Tacitus: Started well under Jose Ortiz but soon came under trouble due to Joevia coming across the field from post 11. Tax was a little bit ahead of Tacitus at this point who moved slightly outside Joevia going into the first turn. Due to this Ortiz had to pull up on the reins which caused his mount to drift outside which made Overdeliver drift further outside. Going into the backstretch Tacitus was moved down towards the rail and ran in fourth for much of the race before making a four-wide move into the stretch. He quickly had his sights set on Tax and soon headed the second-place finisher before powering away to win by a length and a quarter.
#2 – Tax: Had a great start from post one and was quickly joined by Joevia. Tax made a slight move outside of Joevia which caused further trouble to a few of the horses behind him. He settled in third down the backstretch before making the first jump on Not That Brady down the lane. He quickly took over the lead but had Tacitus right to his outside. He had a valiant effort but was no match for the winner and eventually finished second by a little more than a length.
#3 – Haikal: Was slow out of the gate like he usually is and settle between horses going into the first turn. He ended up in eighth down the backstretch and eventually had to make a move between the two Pletcher horses going into the final turn. Haikal skimmed the rail and kept fighting on to get up for third by a half length over Math Wizard.
#4 – Math Wizard: Ran evenly with Outshine to his outside out of the break. The jockey had to pull back on the reins slightly as Not That Brady pushed towards the front, but it was nothing too serious. He ended up in tenth on the backstretch where he got the jump on Haikal by splitting the two Pletcher horses. Entering the final turn, he was in fifth down by the rail and it looked like he would hold on for a third, but he was done running midway down the stretch.
#5 – Not That Brady: Broke well and was just able to avoid the traffic going into the first turn and ended up in third moving into the backstretch. He soon joined Joevia to his outside where the duo raced head to head leading up to the final turn. Joevia began to retreat at this point and Not That Brady went into the stretch with a slight lead over Tax. This lead did not last long, and the son of Big Brown faded to fifth losing by about five lengths.
#6 – Final Jeopardy: Had a clean break under Manny Franco and was quickly shuffled to fifth in between Tacitus and Overdeliever before the first turn. Down the backstretch he took up running in ninth before getting passed by Grumps Little Tots. He made up some ground entering the final turn and just got up for sixth over Joevia down the lane. Not a bad finish considering the circumstances going into the first turn.
#7 – Joevia (Disqualified and placed 11th): Took off from post 11 and made a strong move towards the rail going into the first turn. Due to this, Tacticus, Final Jeopardy, and Overdeliver were all negatively affected. Joevia was in first moving into the backstretch but was soon joined by Not That Brady where the two battled it out until Joevia began to retreat before the final turn. He was passed by Final Jeopardy down the lane to finish seventh but was eventually disqualified and placed last.
#8 – Hoffa’s Union: Did not break well but was able to avoid the trouble going into the first turn and sat about seventh in the early stages. Hoffa’s Union moved into fifth during the backstretch and really had no excuse from there. Entering the stretch, you can see the horse was done running so I feel it was too much too soon for this guy.
#9 – Grumps Little Tots: Began slowest of the group and was last going into the first turn. He soon passed Final Jeopardy but did little after that. Down the lane he was a little green and Lezcano pulled back on the reins signally he was finished at that point.
#10 – Outshine: Had an even beginning next to Math Wizard but Velazquez tried to push on towards the front runners entering the first turn. He was already wide at that point due to Overdeliver getting pushed further outside and ended up floating about seven-wide around the first turn. He was essentially done by this point but given the circumstances you could probably draw a line through this effort.
#11 – Overdeliver: Probably took the worst of the whole debacle going into the first turn and ended up going five to six around the first turn. He tried his best down the backstretch but ended up retreating before the final turn. You can probably draw a line through this effort as he arguably took the worst from the congestion going into the first turn.
About Josh:
Originally from Upstate New York, Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".
Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.
Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).
4/6/2019
Race Round-Up: (R10) Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/8th Mile Dirt, $750,000)
Track Condition: Fast
Final Time: 1:51.23
Tacitus proved his worth on Saturday when he overcame a troubled beginning and eventually got up to win by a length and a quarter over Tax. He now has two Gr. II wins under his belt and put himself atop the Kentucky Derby 2019 leader board with 150 points. Traveling fourth down the backstretch, the son of Tapit went through fractions of 23.62, 46.91, 1:11.46, 1:37.81 before crossing the wire at 1:51.23. I have to say, this was an incredible run given the circumstances going into the first turn and the way he overcame adversity must sit well with bettors going into the Derby. Unless something crazy happens in the next two weeks I would imagine he’ll be a top three betting choice come May 4th.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Tacitus capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
The top four runners in here were Tacitus, Tax, Haikal, and Math Wizard. Tax solidified his Derby ticket by earning 40 tokens for his second-place finish and now sits in 12th with 52 points. Haikal came into this race with 50 points so he was most likely going to the Derby anyway, but he bumped up his total to 70 after his third-place effort. Math Wizard ran well for fourth, however he will not have enough to qualify for the Derby.
Let’s look at the race round up for Saturday’s Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes:
#1 – Tacitus: Started well under Jose Ortiz but soon came under trouble due to Joevia coming across the field from post 11. Tax was a little bit ahead of Tacitus at this point who moved slightly outside Joevia going into the first turn. Due to this Ortiz had to pull up on the reins which caused his mount to drift outside which made Overdeliver drift further outside. Going into the backstretch Tacitus was moved down towards the rail and ran in fourth for much of the race before making a four-wide move into the stretch. He quickly had his sights set on Tax and soon headed the second-place finisher before powering away to win by a length and a quarter.
#2 – Tax: Had a great start from post one and was quickly joined by Joevia. Tax made a slight move outside of Joevia which caused further trouble to a few of the horses behind him. He settled in third down the backstretch before making the first jump on Not That Brady down the lane. He quickly took over the lead but had Tacitus right to his outside. He had a valiant effort but was no match for the winner and eventually finished second by a little more than a length.
#3 – Haikal: Was slow out of the gate like he usually is and settle between horses going into the first turn. He ended up in eighth down the backstretch and eventually had to make a move between the two Pletcher horses going into the final turn. Haikal skimmed the rail and kept fighting on to get up for third by a half length over Math Wizard.
#4 – Math Wizard: Ran evenly with Outshine to his outside out of the break. The jockey had to pull back on the reins slightly as Not That Brady pushed towards the front, but it was nothing too serious. He ended up in tenth on the backstretch where he got the jump on Haikal by splitting the two Pletcher horses. Entering the final turn, he was in fifth down by the rail and it looked like he would hold on for a third, but he was done running midway down the stretch.
#5 – Not That Brady: Broke well and was just able to avoid the traffic going into the first turn and ended up in third moving into the backstretch. He soon joined Joevia to his outside where the duo raced head to head leading up to the final turn. Joevia began to retreat at this point and Not That Brady went into the stretch with a slight lead over Tax. This lead did not last long, and the son of Big Brown faded to fifth losing by about five lengths.
#6 – Final Jeopardy: Had a clean break under Manny Franco and was quickly shuffled to fifth in between Tacitus and Overdeliever before the first turn. Down the backstretch he took up running in ninth before getting passed by Grumps Little Tots. He made up some ground entering the final turn and just got up for sixth over Joevia down the lane. Not a bad finish considering the circumstances going into the first turn.
#7 – Joevia (Disqualified and placed 11th): Took off from post 11 and made a strong move towards the rail going into the first turn. Due to this, Tacticus, Final Jeopardy, and Overdeliver were all negatively affected. Joevia was in first moving into the backstretch but was soon joined by Not That Brady where the two battled it out until Joevia began to retreat before the final turn. He was passed by Final Jeopardy down the lane to finish seventh but was eventually disqualified and placed last.
#8 – Hoffa’s Union: Did not break well but was able to avoid the trouble going into the first turn and sat about seventh in the early stages. Hoffa’s Union moved into fifth during the backstretch and really had no excuse from there. Entering the stretch, you can see the horse was done running so I feel it was too much too soon for this guy.
#9 – Grumps Little Tots: Began slowest of the group and was last going into the first turn. He soon passed Final Jeopardy but did little after that. Down the lane he was a little green and Lezcano pulled back on the reins signally he was finished at that point.
#10 – Outshine: Had an even beginning next to Math Wizard but Velazquez tried to push on towards the front runners entering the first turn. He was already wide at that point due to Overdeliver getting pushed further outside and ended up floating about seven-wide around the first turn. He was essentially done by this point but given the circumstances you could probably draw a line through this effort.
#11 – Overdeliver: Probably took the worst of the whole debacle going into the first turn and ended up going five to six around the first turn. He tried his best down the backstretch but ended up retreating before the final turn. You can probably draw a line through this effort as he arguably took the worst from the congestion going into the first turn.
About Josh:
Originally from Upstate New York, Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".
Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.
Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).
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