Top Five 3-Year-Old Males: Travers 2019 Hero Code of Honor Moves Up

Code of Honor won the Travers Stakes (G1) on Saturday, August 24. Did he do enough to take over the top spot on my sophomore males list? 

Travers Stakes (G1) Recap (8-24-19) - Winner: Code of Honor ($10.80)

Mucho Gusto and Tacitus set this up for a closer. When two very good horses are battling on the lead at a mile and a quarter, you just know another quality horse will pick them off. Tax from post 12 also pushed the pace, and Code of Honor’s pilot John Velazquez had to be loving the race shape. He was patiently ridden from 9th, and he started to move up with a quarter of a mile remaining. He raced wide throughout and swung out even wider in the stretch, and rumbled down the middle to prevail by about three lengths. Tacitus fought with Mucho Gusto throughout and gamely finished a 1/2 length in front of that one for 2nd. The top three ran quality races and Tacitus settled for the runner-up spot once again (also 2nd in G1 Belmont and G2 Jim Dandy). The blinkers definitely got him in the race earlier, and he lost nothing in defeat. He will win one of these big races at some point. Mucho Gusto tried to steal it and probably would have if Tacitus did not get the equipment change. Hats off to Shug McGaughey for having Code of Honor in peak form for the mid-summer Derby. Endorsed rallied from 12th to complete the superfecta. Owendale was a bit more forwardly placed than expected from the rail, and he ended up an even 5th. Highest Honors sort of ran in place throughout and was right behind that one in 6th, and Tax gradually weakened to 7th. Chess Chief, Laughing Fox, and Scars Are Cool were next, and it was a big gap back to Looking At Bikinis (stumbled at start) and Everfast.

Jarrod Horak’s Top 5 Three-Year-Old Males (9-5-19)  

#1 - OMAHA BEACH - Ack Ack (G3) at Churchill on Sept. 28 is the new comeback spot.

#2 -  CODE OF HONOR - Top 3yo of second half with wins in Dwyer (G3) and Travers (G1). 

#3 - TACITUS - Gem of consistency added blinkers and finished 2nd in Travers.   

#4 - MAXIMUM SECURITY - Bounced back in Haskell (G1). PA Derby next. 

#5 - GAME WINNER - Got sick and missed Travers. No fall plans have been announced.    

Article by Jarrod Horak

​Photo by Josh Chicorelli
​
You can read all of our 3-year-old division reports on our Triple Crown 2019 page. 

Travers Stakes 2019 Video Preview #2: Key Prep Races

The 2019 Travers Stakes (G1) is still two weeks away, but all of the major preps have been run, and there are ten horses seriously considering the mid-summer Derby at this stage. It promises to be the biggest horse racing event of the summer, and it might have major implications on the 3-year-old title. 

Check out my Travers video below! This week's video looks at the key prep races for the mid-summer Derby. 

Saratoga Race Course photo above courtesy of Josh Chicorelli

You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Sales page. 

Travers Stakes 2019 Video Preview: Game Winner, Maximum Security, Tacitus

The 2019 Travers Stakes (G1) is still three weeks away, but all of the major preps have been run, and there are eleven horses seriously considering the mid-summer Derby at this stage. It promises to be the biggest horse racing event of the summer, and it might have major implications on the 3-year-old title. 

Check out my Travers video below!

Tacitus photo above courtesy of Josh Chicorelli

You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Sales page. 

Bad Luck Continues for Tacitus in 2019 Jim Dandy Stakes

It all started with the Belmont Stakes (G1). Tacitus was supposed to win the final leg of the Triple Crown. He looked like a slam dunk on paper, but a funny thing happened. He drew the outside post and raced wide throughout. That would not have been a deal breaker, except for the fact that the rail was golden, and upset winner Sir Winston was riding the good inside. 

Fast forward to the Jim Dandy, and Tacitus found a way to lose again. This time, he stumbles badly at the start and almost tosses jockey Jose Ortiz. He miraculously recovers and almost beats Tax. See my full Jim Dandy recap below.

My Kentucky Derby (G1) top choice Game Winner finally made it back to the races on July 13, and he easily disposed of three overmatched rivals in the Los Alamitos Derby (G3). This was nothing more than a public workout, and the 2-year-old champ did his best work in late stretch. That race should set him up perfectly for the Travers (G1) at Saratoga Race Course on August 24. 

Also on July 13, Mr. Money captured his third straight grade three race in the Indiana Derby. He has obviously never been better, and his tactical speed is a big weapon. The Travers is being considered, but he is more likely to go in the West Virginia Derby (G3) at Mountaineer Park on Aug. 3. The latter race just makes more sense. He most likely wants nothing to do with grade one foes at a mile and a quarter. 

Maximum Security got back on the beam in the Haskell (G1) at Monmouth Park on July 20. He got his revenge on King for a Day, and he gamely turned away Baffert trainee Mucho Gusto. The top two were well clear of show finisher Spun to Run. Everfast was 4th, followed by King for a Day and Bethlehem Road. The Travers might be next for the winner, but his steady numbers are not getting any better, and he sure did not look like he would thrive at ten furlongs. Mucho Gusto is consistent and improving, but he seems to have distance limitations. There was not much depth to this race. 

Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) Recap (7-27-19) - Winner: Tax ($11.00)

Let’s just get this out of the way right now. No disrespect to Tax, but Tacitus was best in this race, and I am not saying that because he was my top pick. Actually, Tacitus was also best in his prior start in the Belmont Stakes (G1). In the Test of Champions, he was hung out to dry from the outside post while the winner was perched on the golden rail. In the Jim Dandy, he had a terrible stumble and lost all chance at the start. Tax was the early leader but War of Will surged to the front and showed the way for much of the opening six furlongs. The Preakness (G1) champ threw in the towel in short order and Tax took over in the lane and looked home free, but Tacitus emerged along the inside and made a race of it in deep stretch. Tax was traveling slightly better and prevailed by a bit less than a length. Tacitus ran a monster race to finish a clear 2nd, and Global Campaign was an okay 3rd. Laughing Fox edged War of Will for 4th, and Mihos trailed. One horse I absolutely did not like in this race was War of Will. He just has not improved from a numbers standpoint since January.

Jarrod Horak’s Top 5 Three-Year-Old Males (7-28-19)  

#1 - OMAHA BEACH - Rebel/Arkansas Derby hero returned to work tab at Del Mar July 23. 

#2 - GAME WINNER - Nice effort in Los Al Derby (G3). Had first Travers work July 27. 

#3 - TACITUS - Belmont/Jim Dandy runner-up needs racing luck in Travers.  

#4 - MAXIMUM SECURITY - Bounced back in Haskell (G1). Possible for Travers.

#5 -  CODE OF HONOR - Dwyer (G3) return was outstanding. Travers is next. 

Article by Jarrod Horak

Photo by Josh Chicorelli
​
You can read all of my 3-year-old division reports on my Triple Crown 2019 page, and my daily full cards from Del Mar can be found on my Runaway Horse Sales page. 

Indiana Derby Los Al Derby 2019 Video: Mr. Money & Game Winner

Kentucky Derby 2019 Video Preview: 5 Most Likely Derby Winners

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2019 preview video for The Runaway Horse.

Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Recap: Roadster wins SA Derby

A Kentucky Derby 2019 contender trained by Bob Baffert won the Santa Anita Derby on April 6, but not the one you might think. Two-year-old champion Game Winner was nailed in late stretch by his lightly raced stablemate Roadster, and both have secured enough points to run in the Derby.

 


Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Roadster capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.


Santa Anita Derby Top to Bottom Rundown:


1st - Roadster - Was patiently handled by a confident Mike Smith. He was content to sit in 5th place, about five lengths or so behind the top four after six panels. He started making serious inroads while racing outside in the stretch, and got past Game Winner in deep stretch to score by a 1/2 length. This was exactly what you want to see heading into the Derby. He finished up like he wants more ground than a mile and an eighth. The highly regarded colt should only get better as the year progresses. 


2nd - Game Winner - Won all four of his starts last year and has been a bit unlucky in both of his 2019 outings. He missed by a nose in the Rebel Stakes (G2) last month, and he returned in three weeks and was second best again. He stalked wide from the outside post and should have gotten plenty out of both Derby preps this year. 


3rd - Instagrand - He had a flashy juvenile campaign and came back with an okay 3rd in the Gotham Stakes (G3) in New York last month. This was his first two turn test and he set the pace and ended up a clear 3rd. He does not have enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby and that is probably a good thing. His future is probably in shorter events. 


4th - Nolo Contesto - Roadster defeated him in an optional claiming route at Santa Anita last month, and he could not hang with that rival today either. He chased Instagrand and made a run for the lead in the lane but weakened in the final furlong. He has some talent but is a cut or two below the best. 


5th- Synthesis - Chased the pace and steadily retreated as a 66-1 outsider. 


6th- More Ice - Trailed throughout as the longest shot in the field. 


Article by Jarrod Horak


​You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.  

Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Video for Saturday (4-6-19)

Check out my top win selections for the Blue Grass, SA Derby, and Wood Memorial in my Today's Racing Digest video below!

 

Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: All Eyes on Game Winner in Santa Anita Derby

This is a huge week on the Road to Kentucky Derby 2019. Two-year-old champ Game Winner is the strong favorite in the Santa Anita Derby. Tacitus tops the Wood Memorial (G2), and Vekoma and Win Win Win square off in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2).

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Game Winner capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest. 


Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis for Saturday (4-6-19) 


AQU 10 (G2 Wood Memorial, 9f) #10 OUTSHINE (6-1) might be in for a decent outside stalking trip. He is moving forward for Pletcher and exits a good 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). #2 Tacitus (5-2) earned his best career number in his first start vs. winners, first start after a layoff, and first stakes try in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) March 9. He is bred to get better as distances increase and could easily move forward again. He graduated at Aqueduct last fall and needs pace help. #4 Haikal (7-2) got plenty of pace help as my top choice in the Gotham (G3). He has to prove that he is more than a late running sprinter. #3 Hoffa’s Union (6-1) is the mystery horse. He won by the length of the stretch in his Laurel debut and was purchased privately by Mark Casse. The promising son of Union Rags is thrown to the wolves in an attempt to make the Kentucky Derby. #1 Tax (9-2) has been consistent but that Withers number should be taken with a grain of salt. Four horses from that race have run in points races since and none hit the board. #5 Final Jeopardy (8-1) earned a better number in a flat mile optional claiming win at GP March 3. This is his first two turn try and he figures to stalk the pace. The Plays: #10 to win, Exacta Box 2-10, Trifecta 2-10/1-2-3-5/2-10, Trifecta Key 10/1-2-3-4-5 


SA 8 (G1 SA Derby, 9f) #1 ROADSTER (5-2) might sit the right tactical trip behind Instagrand and figures to get the jump on his chalky stablemate Game Winner. He was highly regarded last year and returned with a strong flat mile optional claiming victory March 1. #6 Game Winner (4-5) is the class of the field and could easily beat these. He does not have to win his final Derby prep but could easily get the job done for Rosario/Baffert. #5 Instagrand (3-1) is probably the one to catch but I am not sure how far he wants to go. He was sensational in a pair of sprint wins last summer including the Best Pal (G2) and returned with an okay 3rd in the Gotham (G3). #3 Nolo Contesto (6-1) is slowly improving for Sadler and projects a decent stalking trip under Talamo. He beat Omaha Beach in a local flat mile maiden race Jan 4, and that one has won twice since including the Rebel (G2). Roadster beat him last time but he might be fitter in his second start after a layoff. #2 More Ice (30-1) exits a wide, distant 3rd from post 10 in the El Camino Real Derby, and occupied that same spot in the Eddie Logan on turf in his final start as a 2-year-old. He has some ability but is not fast enough to threaten these. #4 Synthesis (30-1) moves to the George Papaprodromou barn after a distant 4th place finish in the San Vicente (G2). He graduated in a dirt route at Keeneland last fall and will probably try to get involved early but is not nearly as quick as Instagrand. The Plays: #1 to win, Exacta 1-5-6/3, Trifecta Key 1/3-6 


KEE 10 (G2 Blue Grass, 9f) #8 WIN WIN WIN (7-2) is still an unknown commodity in routes after a wide, rallying show finish in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). All four of his sprint tries were solid and he could improve in his second try around two turns. He was right up on the pace in his first two wins but found gate trouble in his last three. His Pasco number at seven panels buries these and he has been on my Derby list for quite some time, so he’s my top pick. #2 Vekoma (9-5) won both of his starts around one turn last year and came back with a solid 3rd in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He should be fitter but there is no guarantee that he will excel at longer distances. #1 Somelikeithotbrown (10-1) won his last two on all-weather ground including the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) in front running fashion. I love his versatility and he is bred to handle dirt. He is the only entrant with a win at this distance and is a threat if he handles the surface switch. #3 Signalman (5-1) ran well in all three points races around two turns last year including a win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). He returned with a subpar effort in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and will try to get involved late. #6 Dream Maker (12-1) is very inconsistent. The all or nothing type was sharp in his Churchill debut last June before flopping in a pair of stakes tries to end his juvenile campaign. He was sharp around two turns vs. optional claimers Feb 9 before throwing in another clunker in Tampa Bay Derby (G2). I have no idea what we will get from him in this event and all three of his stakes tries were poor. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/1-2-6, Exacta 1-2-6/8, Trifecta 1-2-6-8/1-2-6-8/3


Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps for Saturday (3-30-19)


UAE Derby from Meydan (3-30-19) - Winner: Plus Que Parfait ($19.60)


The Americans made short work of this race, and two horses in desperate need of Derby points finished 1-2. Plus Que Parfait finished an okay 2nd in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill as a juvenile, but was nowhere in the Lecomte (G3) or Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds this winter. Gray Magician made one previous points race appearance and ended up a flat 4th in the Sham Stakes (G3). In the stretch run of the UAE Derby, Plus Que Parfait dove inside and split horses under Jose Ortiz, while Gray Magician was battling on along the outside, and the heads up ride by Ortiz made all of the difference. They both have enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby, but their form in US points races was not great, and I do not want to take a Dubai shipper on the first Saturday in May. 


Florida Derby (G1) from Gulfstream Park (3-30-19) - Winner: Maximum Security ($11.60)


Pace makes the race, especially when the track is favoring speed. Forwardly placed runners won all of the main track races at Gulfstream on Saturday (3 front running winners), and this should have been a slam dunk for Hidden Scroll. The Florida Derby chalk was clearly the main speed from the rail, but for some inexplicable reason, his new rider Javier Castellano wrangled him back early and took away his main weapon. Maximum Security, a former maiden claimer, and Bodexpress, a maiden after four career starts, controlled the pace through extremely soft fractions and made it a parade. Neither had run two turns before, and they dominated from start to finish in their first stakes attempts. Maximum Security was 3+ lengths in front at the wire for Luis Saez and Jason Servis, and Bodexpress was clear of the show by another 3+ lengths. Code of Honor emerged from the pack and held off Bourbon War for the show by a bit less than a length, and they were well clear of late running turf specialist Current. Hidden Scroll was next, and his connections thought about the tactics of this race way too much. He went way too fast early in the Fountain of Youth, and they overcompensated to say the least. All they had to do was put the inside speed on the lead through moderate fractions. That was his best and only chance to succeed, and when you have speed and the rail at Gulfstream, you take that advantage and let the chips fall where they may. Union’s Destiny was next, followed by Harvey Wallbanger, Everfast, Garter and Tie, and Hard Belle. 


Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders (4-5-19)


(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)


Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)


Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:13.40 (1/11) at Santa Anita on April 1. 


Comments: We finally got to see Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he did not disappoint despite losing by a nose. He was supposed to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes on March 9, but that was was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He shipped to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and the strong favorite rallied to miss by a nose. Fellow California shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on him and won the battle, but Game Winner brushed off the rust and appears poised to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6. I am sure that Bob Baffert is not worried about losing a mile and a sixteenth prep. He just needed to get a race into his talented runner and the Rebel Stakes was a means to an end. The goal is to peak on the first Saturday in May, and that may very well happen. Actually, he does not need to win the SA Derby either. A solid underneath finish from off the pace will suffice. 


Derby Points (45)


(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)


Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)


Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:12.80 (1/24) at Santa Anita on March 30. 


Comments: Bob Baffert’s other unbeaten juvenile was also supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe, and ended up in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park last Saturday due to the well documented surface issues at Santa Anita Park. He ran a quality race from the outside post and missed by a neck while racing wide throughout under Drayden van Dyke. I fully expect him to be much fitter in his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13, and Jose Ortiz will be his new rider. I would not be surprised to see both Baffert runners win their final Derby points races and head to Churchill Downs as the two favorites. 


Derby Points (25) 


(3) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)


Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)


Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 46.80 (1/7) at Sunland Park on April 4. 


Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy put his three-race all-weather route win streak on the line in the Sunland Derby (G3) on March 24, and he finished strongly to miss by a neck in a fine effort. The Sunland Derby may have been his best effort yet because he proved that he could sit behind horses and handle regular dirt. He owns dangerous early-pressing versatility and should be able to handle a mile and a quarter. He remains at Sunland Park and could end up running in one more race prior to Derby if he needs more points. The Lexington Stakes (G2) at Keeneland on April 13 is the likely target if he runs again before the Kentucky Derby. 


Derby Points (30)


(4) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)


Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.) 


Latest Workout: 4f in 49.80 (11/31) at Payson Park on March 31. 


Comments: Returned to the list for the second time after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs, and he sure seems like a mile and a quarter type. He will have his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 6, and he is the morning line favorite. 


Derby Points (50) 


(5) SPINOFF (Hard Spun - Zaftig, by Gone West)


Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Werthheimer and Frere)  


Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 48.85 (1/6) at Palm Beach Downs on April 3. 


Comments: I have liked this one since he ran 3rd in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his second career start last summer. It was great to see him stretch out and improve in his romping Tampa Bay Downs return Feb. 22, and he continued his upward trajectory with an excellent runner-up finish from an outer post in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds on March 23. His tactical speed in a big asset and he appears to be getting good at the right time. 


Derby Points (40)


(6) OMAHA BEACH (War Front - Charming, by Seeking the Soul)


Trainer (Richard Mandella) - Owner (Fox Hill Farms, Inc.)


Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.80 (1/25) at Santa Anita Park on March 29. 


Comments: The light bulb came on in his romping wet track maiden win in an extended sprint at Santa Anita Feb. 2, and he followed that up with a nose victory over 2-year-old champion Game Winner in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park March 16. In the latter race, he sat a great tactical trip and got the jump on the returning champ, and the top two were well clear of the rest. His numbers continue to climb and he might be peaking at the right time. He will return to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby (G1) April 13, and Baffert trainee Improbable will be waiting. 


Derby Points (37.5)


(7) CODE OF HONOR  (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)


Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)


Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. Fast forward to his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Florida Derby (G1), and he got no pace help and ended up 3rd (beaten 6+ lengths). I like the versatility he has shown in five career starts, but he has suddenly become more pace dependent than ever. I was never completely sold on his stamina beyond a mile and a sixteenth, and I still do not know how far he really wants to go. He qualified for the Kentucky Derby in the Fountain of Youth, so the Florida Derby was not important from a points perspective. I wish he would have been closer to the pace on Saturday, and there are more questions than answers, which is a recurring theme with this crop. 


Derby Points (74)


(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)


Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)


Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (6/15) at Fair Hill (all-weather training) on March 30. 


Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did just enough in that event to remain on my list. He deserves a final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early. His final Derby prep will come in the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland on April 6, and he is the second choice on the morning line. 


Derby Points (10) 


(9) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)


Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)


Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.56 (3/10) at Palm Beach Downs on March 30. 


Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep, which will be at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) on April 6. He is the Blue Grass favorite and he figures to stalk the pace from an inner post.    


Derby Points (10 points) 


(10) ROADSTER (Quality Road - Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost)


Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Speedway Stable LLC)


Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:12.60 (1/19) at Santa Anita Park on March 31. 


Comments: I have been patiently waiting to get one of my original “exceptional eleven” members back on my list ever since his sharp optional claiming win at Santa Anita on March 1. That was his first start since a show finish in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last summer, and he sure was impressive. We saw what he was capable of in his winning debut at Del Mar last July. He overcame the intimidating inside post in his professional debut at Del Mar, and his return victory was a big step in the right direction. He stalked the pace in his first route try on March 1 and pulled clear to easily best highly regarded John Sadler runner Nolo Contesto. He will get his first and only points race test in the Santa Anita Derby on April 6, and he has four solid works in preparation for that event. He will qualify for Kentucky Derby 2019 with a 1st or 2nd place finish. 


(11) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)


Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden) 


Latest Workout: 4f in 50.20 (2/5) at Payson Park on April 5. 


Comments: I liked the progress he made in his first four starts, but I was expecting more in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He showed a bit more maturity in that event, but did not get a ton of pace help and flattened out late after making nice progress (raced wide) to get into contention turning for home. I still think there is a bit more talent than he has shown, and if he can break a bit better and work out a decent trip, he could jump up and win a graded event. He is frequently at the mercy of the pace and needs racing luck. He maintains his position at the bottom of the list, and it looks like he will run in one final points race in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13. 


Derby Points (30) 


THE NEXT NINE: (12) Long Range Toddy, (13) Bourbon War, (14) By My Standards, (15) Maximum Security, (16) Haikal, (17) War of Will, (18) Cutting Humor, (19) Plus Que Parfait, (20) Gray Magician, (21) Bodexpress

Kentucky Derby 2019 blog by Jarrod Horak

You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.    

Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: Rebel Recap + Louisiana Derby, Sunland Derby Preview

The Road to Kentucky Derby 2019 stops at Fair Grounds Race Course for the final time this year, and War of Will goes for a sweep of the New Orleans points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on Saturday, March 23. The other points race this weekend is the Sunland Derby (G3) on March 24, and Mucho Gusto is the 8-5 morning line favorite for Bob Baffert.

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Mucho Gusto capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest. 


Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis 


FG 13 (G2 Louisiana Derby, 9f) #8 COUNTRY HOUSE (9-2) made too many mistakes as my value top choice in the Risen Star (G2) and that cost him any chance of winning (career best 104 FIRE Number). He was better than everyone except War of Will that day and might be able to turn the tables on that rival with a more professional effort from off the pace. He should love today’s added ground. #10 Spinoff (8-1) is a dangerous early-pressing colt for Todd Pletcher. He ran well in both juvenile sprints and returned with a strong two turn optional claiming win at Tampa Bay Feb 22. There is not a ton of pace in this event and he might get brave if aggressively handled under John Velazquez. He drilled a bullet for this March 16 and would not have to improve much to win this. #4 Sueno (8-1) is on the improve and finished in front of subsequent Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Long Range Toddy in the Southwest (G3) last time. He drew well and projects a stalking trip. #6 War of Will (6-5) just goes out there and wins races and he could easily sweep the local points races. He figures to stalk the pace and Tyler Gaffalione is 3-for-3 with him. #9 Bankit (20-1) used to be a speed horse but changes tactics and rallied in his last four. There is a chance that he did not like Oaklawn Park and today’s rider Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard for his romping Sleepy Hollow victory vs. New York-breds last fall. He shows two local works for this and might spice up the exotics. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/4-6-10, Exacta 4-8-10/6, Trifecta 4-6-8-10/4-6-8-10/9


SUN 11 (G3 Sunland Derby, 9f) #2 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (3-1) is one of the most interesting Derby trail runners this year. He won his last three all-weather routes by a combined 16-lengths including the El Camino Real Derby Feb 16 (field-best 150 Final Rating), and you can draw a line through his dirt sprint bow at SA last fall. He should make his presence felt throughout and most likely wins this if he handles dirt. #1 Mucho Gusto (8-5) might be forced to go too fast early from the inside post. He is 3-for-4 with two graded wins but had everything go right on a wet speed favoring oval in the Robert Lewis (G3) Feb 2. I am not sure that he is a good as his reputation and the Baffert trainee looks like an underlay in this spot. #5 Cutting Humor (8-1) fits with these if he can run back to his runner-up finish behind Bourbon War Jan 18. He was the beaten favorite in the Southwest (G3) but did show some run in that event and might rebound if he settled early under John Velazquez. #4 Wicked Indeed (6-1) exits a clear place finish in the local prep for this and he gets pace to chase in the paper race. Contreras knows him now and he is the only top contender with a race over the track. The Plays: #2 to win, Exacta 2/1-4-5, Exacta 1-4-5/2, Trifecta Key 2/1-4-5


Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps


Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 1 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Long Range Toddy ($18.80)


This was supposed to be a gimme for Improbable but Long Range Toddy had other ideas. Bob Baffert’s strong favorite stalked wide from the outside post and made his way to the lead in the stretch but Long Range Toddy wore him down late to win by a neck. The winner, ridden by Jon Court, always puts himself in a favorable stalking position and continues to get no respect from bettors despite finishing in the top three in all of his points race tries. Improbable was clearly second best and ran well considering all of the turmoil at Santa Anita recently. He should move forward in his final points race in the Arkansas Derby next month. Galilean attended the pace after a less than ideal start and was no match for the top two. Extra Hope made an early move from the inside post under Mike Smith but ran out of gas in late stretch. Easy Shot, Ninth Street, and Classy John trailed. The final time was 1:42.49. 


Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 2 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Omaha Beach ($10.80)


The second division of the Rebel Stakes was run in slightly faster time (1:42.42) but the winner was not 2-year-old champion Game Winner. Richard Mandella’s Santa Anita shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on the Baffert chalk and held on by a nose in a nice effort in his stakes debut. Game Winner lost nothing in defeat. Like his stablemate Improbable, he had to call an audible after the San Felipe was cancelled a week earlier, and all of the wet weather in California this winter messed with his training schedule. He just missed in a rock solid effort while more than eight lengths clear of show finisher Market King. Late runner Gunmetal Gray got going too late and ended up 4th, and was followed by Jersey Agenda, Captain Von Trapp, Laughing Fox, Parsimony, Kaziranga, and Our Braintrust. 


Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders (3-22-19)


(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)


Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)


Comments: We finally got to see Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he did not disappoint despite losing by a nose. He was supposed to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes on March 9, but that race was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He was forced to ship to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 16. Fellow California shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on him and won the battle, but Game Winner brushed off the rust and appears poised to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6. I am sure that Bob Baffert is not worried about losing a mile and a sixteenth prep in his first start after a layoff. He just needed to get a race into his talented runner and the Rebel Stakes was a means to an end. The goal is to peak on the first Saturday in May, and that may very well happen. 


Derby Points (45)


(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)


Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)


Comments: Bob Baffert’s other unbeaten juvenile was also supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe, and he also ended up at Oaklawn Park on March 16. He competed in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and missed by a neck from the outside post while racing wide throughout under Drayden van Dyke. I fully expect him to be much fitter in his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13. I would not be surprised to see both Baffert runners win their final Derby points races next month and head to Churchill Downs as the two favorites. 


Derby Points (25) 


(3) CODE OF HONOR  (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)


Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)


Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 1:01.00 (1/6) at Payson Park on March 16. 


Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He is as talented as any sophomore in the land and is getting good at the right time.   


Derby Points (54)


(4) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)


Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)


Latest Workout: 4f in 47.60 (3/31) at Fair Grounds on March 15. 


Comments: He had two of the better looking points race victories this year in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He goes for a sweep of the Fair Grounds derby points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 23. He drew a better post in the LA Derby and figures to stalk the pace.   


Derby Points (60)


(5) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)


Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden) 


Latest Workout: 4f in 49.60 (2/15) at Payson Park on March 17. 


Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still immature. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together. He will meet War of Will again in the Louisiana Derby, and he can turn the tables on that rival if he runs a more professional race. He will need pace help at Fair Grounds as well. 


Derby Points (20) 


(6) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)


Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.) 


Comments: Returned to the list after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs, and he sure seems like a mile and a quarter type. 


Derby Points (50) 


(7) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)


Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)


Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.40 (1/7) at Payson Park on March 22. 


Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout.  He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind a hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite in his stakes debut. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano. 


Derby Points (5) 


(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)


Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)


Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did enough to remain on my list. He ran well enough to earn one final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early. 


Derby Points (10) 
 
(9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)


Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)


Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.00 (2/11) at Golden Gate Fields on March 17. 


Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24. He drew post two at Sunland Park and should make his presence felt throughout if he handles dirt. 


Derby Points (10)


(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)


Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)


Latest Workout: 4f in 49.76 (7/18) at Palm Beach Downs on March 15. 


Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep. 


Derby Points (10 points) 


(11) SPINOFF (Hard Spun - Zaftig, by Gone West)


Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Werthheimer and Frere)   


Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.59 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on March 16.


Comments: I have liked this one since he ran 3rd in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his second career start last summer. It was great to see him stretch out and improve in his romping Tampa Bay Downs return Feb. 22, and he finally shows up in a points race in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and should make his presence felt throughout at Fair Grounds on March 23. 


THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Roadster, (14) Omaha Beach, (15) Long Range Toddy, (16) Haikal, (17) Mucho Gusto, (18) Signalman, (19) Gunmetal Gray, (20) Instagrand 

Article and by Jarrod Horak

You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.