There are a couple of races on the Road to Kentucky Derby 2019this weekend including the Florida Derby. Hidden Scroll tries to rebound after getting cooked on the lead in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). The UAE Derby from Dubai is the other big weekend points race, and that race looks like a mad scramble.
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Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
GP 14 (G1 Florida Derby, 9f) #4 BOURBON WAR (7-2) rallied and fell 3/4ths of a length short as my top choice in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He drew well, gets pace to chase, and should love today’s added ground. I think the improving son of Tapit can get there this time under Ortiz Jr., but he does not need to win to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. He has 21 points, and if he runs 3rd, he picks up another 20 points, and that would get him into the gate on the first Saturday in May. #1 Hidden Scroll (5-2) drew the rail and almost has to go to the lead. He was sensational in his local flat mile debut on a wet track, and actually did well to hold 4th after using too much early energy in the Fountain of Youth (G2) March 2. He gets a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano and could easily go all the way. #9 Code of Honor (3-1) sat a great trip behind the speed from the inside post in the Fountain of Youth, and he is firing bullets for this. I love his versatility and he might score again but he won’t be 9-1 this time. #2 Current(15-1) has shown ability in the turf stakes ranks and Todd Pletcher has been on a roll in recent points races. I can see him hitting the board at a price. #7 Maximum Security (9-2) stretches out and faces a salty graded group after a trio of facile victories vs. much lesser local sprinters. Jason Servis is a high % trainer and he looms a pace factor at the very least under Luis Saez. He might end up compromising Hidden Scroll on the front end, but I don’t know if he will be able to hang in there throughout. The Plays: #4 to win, Exacta Box 1-4, Trifecta 1-4/1-2-4-9/1-2-4-9, Trifecta 1/ALL/4
MEY 5 (G1 UAE Derby, 9.5f) #5 DERMA LOUVRE (12-1) might like this longer trip. His biggest win last year was a 7-length romp in his longest start at a mile and an eighth. After that maiden win, he won a couple of races as the chalk at seven panels, and finished his 2018 campaign with a head defeat in a flat mile event in the mud. He showed decent late interest in a show finish Feb 17 and might be ready to move forward. #1 Walking Thunder (5-1) easily won his first three starts before settling for the place in the UAE Guineas (G3) Feb 7. Dettori ends up here and he is a solid threat if able to navigate today’s added ground. #6 Divine Image(2-1) is getting better and can run all day. She exits back-to-back course/distance wins and put it all together in a romping win March 9. This is her toughest test to date and she won’t offer much value. #8 Gray Magician (15-1) was beaten by very good Maryland-bred Alwaysmining in the Miracle Wood at Laurel Feb. 16. He has some speed and might get brave if able to shake loose early under Joel Rosario. #11 Van Beethoven (10-1) might surprise for Aidan O’Brien. He was a group two winner in a turf sprint last year and returned with an even 4th in an all-weather flat mile event March 6. The son of Scat Daddy is bred to handle dirt. The Plays: #5 to win, Exacta Box 1-5, Trifecta 1-5/1-5-6/1-5-6-8-11
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Louisiana Derby (G2) from Fair Grounds (3-23-19) - Winner: By My Standards
War of Will was the strong favorite but took an awkward step early and never got seriously involved. That threw this race wide open, and By My Standards sat a better trip than runner-up Spinoff and prevailed by less than a length. The runner-up broke from post 10, stalked wide, and did everything but win while well clear of show horse Sueno. It should be noted that none of the top three competed in any of the prior points races at Fair Grounds, and that probably means that War of Will was beating nothing in the Lecomte and Risen Star. Country House made a wide, threatening move from the back but flattened out and ended up 4th. Mr. Money was next, followed by Roiland, Bankit, Hog Creek Hustle, War of Will, Limonite, and Lemniscate. If I want anyone out of this race, it is Spinoff. It looks like they will press on with War of Will. I do not like his Derby chances at all. He is exiting a below par effort and probably peaked over the winter. He will be meeting a full group of sharp, improving horses on the first Saturday in May.
Sunland Derby (G3) from Sunland Park (3-23-19) - Winner: Cutting Humor ($6.60)
Mucho Gusto was the strong favorite in this one, and he set sail for the lead from the inside post under Joe Talamo. He went too fast early and paid the price late in a distant show finish. Cutting Humor was always well placed under John Velazquez and got first run. He needed that jump because Anothertwistafate was charging late but came up a neck short. The latter had a less than ideal trip but never stopped trying and proved that he could handle dirt. He won his previous three all-weather routes in front running fashion and is definitely not a need to lead type. Mucho Gusto was about six lengths behind the top two and was followed by Wicked Indeed, Eye Cloud, Pasamonte Man, Hustle Up, Collusionist, and Walker Stalker.
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Latest Workout: 4f in 48.80 (7/23) at Santa Anita on March 26.
Comments: We finally got to see Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he did not disappoint despite losing by a neck. He was supposed to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes on March 9, but that was was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He has shipped to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and the strong favorite rallied to miss by a nose. Fellow California shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on him and won the battle, but Game Winner brushed off the rust and appears poised to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6. I am sure that Bob Baffert is not worried about losing a mile and a sixteenth prep. He just needed to get a race into his talented runner and the Rebel Stakes was a means to an end. The goal is to peak on the first Saturday in May, and that may very well happen.
Derby Points (45)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s other unbeaten juvenile was also supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe, and ended up in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park last Saturday due to the well documented surface issues at Santa Anita Park. He ran a quality race from the outside post and missed by a neck while racing wide throughout under Drayden van Dyke. I fully expect him to be much fitter in his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13, and Jose Ortiz will be his new rider. I would not be surprised to see both Baffert runners win their final Derby points races next month and head to Churchill Downs as the two favorites.
Derby Points (25)
(3) CODE OF HONOR (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 48.40 (1/12) at Payson Park on March 25.
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He is as talented as any sophomore in the land and is getting good at the right time. He drew post 9 for the Florida Derby (G1) and is the 3-1 second choice on the morning line.
Derby Points (54)
(4) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.00 (2/39) at Payson Park on March 22.
Comments: Returned to the list for the second time after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs, and he sure seems like a mile and a quarter type. It looks like he will make his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 6.
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.40 (1/7) at Payson Park on March 22.
Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite in his stakes debut. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano.
Derby Points (5)
(6) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy put his three-race all-weather route wins streak on the line in the Sunland Derby (G3) on March 24, and he finished strongly to miss by a neck in a fine effort. The Sunland Derby may have been his best effort yet because he proved that he could sit behind horses and handle regular dirt. He owns dangerous early-pressing versatility and should be able to handle a mile and a quarter. He remains at Sunland Park and could end up running in one more race prior to Derby if he needs more points.
Derby Points (30)
(7) SPINOFF (Hard Spun - Zaftig, by Gone West)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Werthheimer and Frere)
Comments: I have liked this one since he ran 3rd in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his second career start last summer. It was great to see him stretch out and improve in his romping Tampa Bay Downs return Feb. 22, and he continued his upward trajectory in an excellent runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds on March 23. His tactical speed in a big asset and he appears to be getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (40)
(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 48.00 (1/26) at Fair Hill (all-weather training) on March 23.
Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did just enough in that event to remain on my list. He deserves final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early. It looks like he will go next in either the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland or Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, and a final decision will be made after he works again on March 30.
Derby Points (10)
(9) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.82 (10/14) at Palm Beach Downs on March 23.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep, which will be at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) on April 6.
Derby Points (10 points)
(10) ROADSTER (Quality Road - Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.00 (4/8) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: I have been patiently waiting to get one of my original “exceptional eleven” members back on my list ever since his sharp optional claiming win at Santa Anita on March 1. That was his first start since a show finish in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last summer, and he sure was impressive. We saw what he was capable of in his winning debut at Del Mar last July. He overcame the intimidating inside post in his professional debut at Del Mar, and his return victory was a big step in the right direction. He stalked the pace in his first route try on March 1 and pulled clear to easily best highly regarded John Sadler runner Nolo Contesto. He will get his first and only points race test in the Santa Anita Derby on April 6, and he has three solid works this month in preparation for that test. He will qualify for Kentucky Derby 2019 with a 1st or 2nd place finish.
(11) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Comments: I liked the progress he made in his first four starts, but I was expecting more in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He showed a bit more maturity in that event, but did not get a ton of pace help and flattened out late after making nice progress to get into contention turning for home. I still think there is a bit more talent than he has shown, and if he can break a bit better, he could jump up and win a graded event. He is frequently at the mercy of the pace and needs racing luck, and there is a chance that he runs in one final points race. His position at the bottom of the list is very shaky, and he will most likely be replaced by Bourbon War if that one runs a quality race in the Florida Derby.
Derby Points (30)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Omaha Beach, (14) By My Standards, (15) Long Range Toddy, (16) Haikal, (17) War of Will, (18) Signalman, (19) Cutting Humor, (20) Instagrand
Kentucky Derby 2019 blog by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Salespage later this spring.
Trainer Todd Pletcher is suddenly on a roll in Kentucky Derby 2019 points races. He saddled Spinoff to a strong runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 23, and the 40 points he earned is enough to run on the first Saturday in May. In the Sunland Derby on March 24, he saddled 2-1 winner Cutting Humor, and he picked up an important 50 Derby points in his neck victory over Anothertwistafate.
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Sunland Park Derby Recap (3-24-19) - Winner: Cutting Humor ($6.60)
1st - CUTTING HUMOR - Made a nice forward move and put it all together at Sunland Park on Sunday. He stalked the pace under John Velazquez, took the lead in the lane, and gamely held off Anothertwistafate by a neck. The improving son of First Samurai is peaking at the right time, but I think the runner-up would have beat him with a better trip.
2nd - Anothertwistafate - Golden Gate Fields all-weather specialist handled the dirt just fine in a clear place finish at Sunland Park. He controlled the pace in his three wins at Golden Gate including the El Camino Real Derby, which was a win and you're in race for the 2019 Preakness Stakes. He picked up 10 Derby points for that win, and another 20 for his second place finish on Sunday. In the Sunland Derby, he stalked the pace and was in an uncomfortable spot between horses. Cutting Humor got the jump on him, and he was gaining ground on that one in deep stretch but ultimately ran out of real estate. It was a good experience to run well without a perfect trip, and ten furlongs appears well within reach. His sire Scat Daddy was responsible for last year's Triple Crown hero Justify, and if there is one horse from this race with the ability to make some noise on the first Saturday in May, it is this guy.
3rd- Mucho Gusto - Took more win money than he should have for Bob Baffert. The inside post forced Joe Talamo to get aggressive early, and that likely cost him any chance of winning. He was the fourth best Derby hope in his own barn (Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster), and I am not surprised that he finished a well-beaten 3rd. He is a solid horse but I never had him ranked on my Derby list. He ended up about six lengths behind the top two.
4th - Wicked Indeed - Looked like the best of the local runners for Steve Asmussen. He raced evenly throughout while failing to make any serious inroads in the lane.
5th - Eye Cloud - Raced in last place for at least the first six furlongs before showing some late interest to finish well clear of the rest at 164-1.
6th - Pasamonte Man - Maiden figured to picked off a few of the back markers, but 64-1 longshot was just in too deep.
7th - Hustle Up - Overachieving New Mexico-bred front runner tried to go with Mucho Gusto early, but the classy speed horses were just too much for him, and he faded in the lane.
8th - Collusionist - never made his way out of 8th place at 95-1 under Scott Stevens.
9th - Walker Stalker - Sat in 6th place for much of the running before weakening to last place at 89-1.
Article by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Salespage later this spring.
Anothertwistafate, the second horse from my newly created Under the Radar video series for Kentucky Derby 2019, finished a strong 2nd and picked up 20 Derby points at Sunland Park on Sunday, March 24.
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He earned 10 Derby points and qualified for Preakness 2019 with a win in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields last month, but the Kentucky Derby on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs is up first. Will 30 points be enough to run in the Kentucky Derby? He currently sits 12th on the points list (top 20 points earners qualify for Derby), but there are still six races worth 100-40-20-10 to the top four finishers, so much could happen between the Florida Derby on March 30 and the Arkansas Derby on April 13.
In case you missed my Anothertwistafate video, check it out below!
Article and Video by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Salespage later this spring.
The Road toKentucky Derby 2019 stops at Fair Grounds Race Course for the final time this year, and War of Will goes for a sweep of the New Orleans points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on Saturday, March 23. The other points race this weekend is the Sunland Derby (G3) on March 24, and Mucho Gusto is the 8-5 morning line favorite for Bob Baffert.
Check out Today's Racing Digestfor handicapping products, analysis, and more! Mucho Gusto capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
FG 13 (G2 Louisiana Derby, 9f) #8 COUNTRY HOUSE (9-2) made too many mistakes as my value top choice in the Risen Star (G2) and that cost him any chance of winning (career best 104 FIRE Number). He was better than everyone except War of Will that day and might be able to turn the tables on that rival with a more professional effort from off the pace. He should love today’s added ground. #10 Spinoff (8-1) is a dangerous early-pressing colt for Todd Pletcher. He ran well in both juvenile sprints and returned with a strong two turn optional claiming win at Tampa Bay Feb 22. There is not a ton of pace in this event and he might get brave if aggressively handled under John Velazquez. He drilled a bullet for this March 16 and would not have to improve much to win this. #4 Sueno (8-1) is on the improve and finished in front of subsequent Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Long Range Toddy in the Southwest (G3) last time. He drew well and projects a stalking trip. #6 War of Will (6-5) just goes out there and wins races and he could easily sweep the local points races. He figures to stalk the pace and Tyler Gaffalione is 3-for-3 with him. #9 Bankit (20-1) used to be a speed horse but changes tactics and rallied in his last four. There is a chance that he did not like Oaklawn Park and today’s rider Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard for his romping Sleepy Hollow victory vs. New York-breds last fall. He shows two local works for this and might spice up the exotics. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/4-6-10, Exacta 4-8-10/6, Trifecta 4-6-8-10/4-6-8-10/9
SUN 11 (G3 Sunland Derby, 9f) #2 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (3-1) is one of the most interesting Derby trail runners this year. He won his last three all-weather routes by a combined 16-lengths including the El Camino Real Derby Feb 16 (field-best 150 Final Rating), and you can draw a line through his dirt sprint bow at SA last fall. He should make his presence felt throughout and most likely wins this if he handles dirt. #1 Mucho Gusto (8-5) might be forced to go too fast early from the inside post. He is 3-for-4 with two graded wins but had everything go right on a wet speed favoring oval in the Robert Lewis (G3) Feb 2. I am not sure that he is a good as his reputation and the Baffert trainee looks like an underlay in this spot. #5 Cutting Humor (8-1) fits with these if he can run back to his runner-up finish behind Bourbon War Jan 18. He was the beaten favorite in the Southwest (G3) but did show some run in that event and might rebound if he settled early under John Velazquez. #4 Wicked Indeed (6-1) exits a clear place finish in the local prep for this and he gets pace to chase in the paper race. Contreras knows him now and he is the only top contender with a race over the track. The Plays: #2 to win, Exacta 2/1-4-5, Exacta 1-4-5/2, Trifecta Key 2/1-4-5
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 1 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Long Range Toddy ($18.80)
This was supposed to be a gimme for Improbable but Long Range Toddy had other ideas. Bob Baffert’s strong favorite stalked wide from the outside post and made his way to the lead in the stretch but Long Range Toddy wore him down late to win by a neck. The winner, ridden by Jon Court, always puts himself in a favorable stalking position and continues to get no respect from bettors despite finishing in the top three in all of his points race tries. Improbable was clearly second best and ran well considering all of the turmoil at Santa Anita recently. He should move forward in his final points race in the Arkansas Derby next month. Galilean attended the pace after a less than ideal start and was no match for the top two. Extra Hope made an early move from the inside post under Mike Smith but ran out of gas in late stretch. Easy Shot, Ninth Street, and Classy John trailed. The final time was 1:42.49.
Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 2 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Omaha Beach ($10.80)
The second division of the Rebel Stakes was run in slightly faster time (1:42.42) but the winner was not 2-year-old champion Game Winner. Richard Mandella’s Santa Anita shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on the Baffert chalk and held on by a nose in a nice effort in his stakes debut. Game Winner lost nothing in defeat. Like his stablemate Improbable, he had to call an audible after the San Felipe was cancelled a week earlier, and all of the wet weather in California this winter messed with his training schedule. He just missed in a rock solid effort while more than eight lengths clear of show finisher Market King. Late runner Gunmetal Gray got going too late and ended up 4th, and was followed by Jersey Agenda, Captain Von Trapp, Laughing Fox, Parsimony, Kaziranga, and Our Braintrust.
(1)GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Comments: We finally got to see Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he did not disappoint despite losing by a nose. He was supposed to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes on March 9, but that race was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He was forced to ship to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 16. Fellow California shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on him and won the battle, but Game Winner brushed off the rust and appears poised to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6. I am sure that Bob Baffert is not worried about losing a mile and a sixteenth prep in his first start after a layoff. He just needed to get a race into his talented runner and the Rebel Stakes was a means to an end. The goal is to peak on the first Saturday in May, and that may very well happen.
Derby Points (45)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s other unbeaten juvenile was also supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe, and he also ended up at Oaklawn Park on March 16. He competed in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and missed by a neck from the outside post while racing wide throughout under Drayden van Dyke. I fully expect him to be much fitter in his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13. I would not be surprised to see both Baffert runners win their final Derby points races next month and head to Churchill Downs as the two favorites.
Derby Points (25)
(3) CODE OF HONOR (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 1:01.00 (1/6) at Payson Park on March 16.
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He is as talented as any sophomore in the land and is getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (54)
(4) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Latest Workout: 4f in 47.60 (3/31) at Fair Grounds on March 15.
Comments: He had two of the better looking points race victories this year in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He goes for a sweep of the Fair Grounds derby points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 23. He drew a better post in the LA Derby and figures to stalk the pace.
Derby Points (60)
(5) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.60 (2/15) at Payson Park on March 17.
Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still immature. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together. He will meet War of Will again in the Louisiana Derby, and he can turn the tables on that rival if he runs a more professional race. He will need pace help at Fair Grounds as well.
Derby Points (20)
(6) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)
Comments: Returned to the list after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs, and he sure seems like a mile and a quarter type.
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.40 (1/7) at Payson Park on March 22.
Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind a hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite in his stakes debut. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano.
Derby Points (5)
(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did enough to remain on my list. He ran well enough to earn one final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early.
Derby Points (10) (9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.00 (2/11) at Golden Gate Fields on March 17.
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24. He drew post two at Sunland Park and should make his presence felt throughout if he handles dirt.
Derby Points (10)
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.76 (7/18) at Palm Beach Downs on March 15.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (10 points)
(11) SPINOFF (Hard Spun - Zaftig, by Gone West)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Werthheimer and Frere)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.59 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on March 16.
Comments: I have liked this one since he ran 3rd in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his second career start last summer. It was great to see him stretch out and improve in his romping Tampa Bay Downs return Feb. 22, and he finally shows up in a points race in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and should make his presence felt throughout at Fair Grounds on March 23.
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Roadster, (14) Omaha Beach, (15) Long Range Toddy, (16) Haikal, (17) Mucho Gusto, (18) Signalman, (19) Gunmetal Gray, (20) Instagrand
Article and by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Salespage later this spring.
