This is my third in a series of videos featuring under the radar horses on the road to Kentucky Derby 2019. I started covering all of the remaining points races beginning with the Louisiana Derby (G2) from Fair Grounds on Saturday, March 23. Spinoff, trainer by Todd Pletcher, was featured in my first video, and Anothertwistafate was my second video horse to watch in the Sunland Derby (G3). In this video, I take a look at Florida Derby entrant Hidden Scroll.
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Article and Video by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Salespage later this spring.
There are a couple of races on the Road to Kentucky Derby 2019this weekend including the Florida Derby. Hidden Scroll tries to rebound after getting cooked on the lead in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). The UAE Derby from Dubai is the other big weekend points race, and that race looks like a mad scramble.
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Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
GP 14 (G1 Florida Derby, 9f) #4 BOURBON WAR (7-2) rallied and fell 3/4ths of a length short as my top choice in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He drew well, gets pace to chase, and should love today’s added ground. I think the improving son of Tapit can get there this time under Ortiz Jr., but he does not need to win to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. He has 21 points, and if he runs 3rd, he picks up another 20 points, and that would get him into the gate on the first Saturday in May. #1 Hidden Scroll (5-2) drew the rail and almost has to go to the lead. He was sensational in his local flat mile debut on a wet track, and actually did well to hold 4th after using too much early energy in the Fountain of Youth (G2) March 2. He gets a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano and could easily go all the way. #9 Code of Honor (3-1) sat a great trip behind the speed from the inside post in the Fountain of Youth, and he is firing bullets for this. I love his versatility and he might score again but he won’t be 9-1 this time. #2 Current(15-1) has shown ability in the turf stakes ranks and Todd Pletcher has been on a roll in recent points races. I can see him hitting the board at a price. #7 Maximum Security (9-2) stretches out and faces a salty graded group after a trio of facile victories vs. much lesser local sprinters. Jason Servis is a high % trainer and he looms a pace factor at the very least under Luis Saez. He might end up compromising Hidden Scroll on the front end, but I don’t know if he will be able to hang in there throughout. The Plays: #4 to win, Exacta Box 1-4, Trifecta 1-4/1-2-4-9/1-2-4-9, Trifecta 1/ALL/4
MEY 5 (G1 UAE Derby, 9.5f) #5 DERMA LOUVRE (12-1) might like this longer trip. His biggest win last year was a 7-length romp in his longest start at a mile and an eighth. After that maiden win, he won a couple of races as the chalk at seven panels, and finished his 2018 campaign with a head defeat in a flat mile event in the mud. He showed decent late interest in a show finish Feb 17 and might be ready to move forward. #1 Walking Thunder (5-1) easily won his first three starts before settling for the place in the UAE Guineas (G3) Feb 7. Dettori ends up here and he is a solid threat if able to navigate today’s added ground. #6 Divine Image(2-1) is getting better and can run all day. She exits back-to-back course/distance wins and put it all together in a romping win March 9. This is her toughest test to date and she won’t offer much value. #8 Gray Magician (15-1) was beaten by very good Maryland-bred Alwaysmining in the Miracle Wood at Laurel Feb. 16. He has some speed and might get brave if able to shake loose early under Joel Rosario. #11 Van Beethoven (10-1) might surprise for Aidan O’Brien. He was a group two winner in a turf sprint last year and returned with an even 4th in an all-weather flat mile event March 6. The son of Scat Daddy is bred to handle dirt. The Plays: #5 to win, Exacta Box 1-5, Trifecta 1-5/1-5-6/1-5-6-8-11
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Louisiana Derby (G2) from Fair Grounds (3-23-19) - Winner: By My Standards
War of Will was the strong favorite but took an awkward step early and never got seriously involved. That threw this race wide open, and By My Standards sat a better trip than runner-up Spinoff and prevailed by less than a length. The runner-up broke from post 10, stalked wide, and did everything but win while well clear of show horse Sueno. It should be noted that none of the top three competed in any of the prior points races at Fair Grounds, and that probably means that War of Will was beating nothing in the Lecomte and Risen Star. Country House made a wide, threatening move from the back but flattened out and ended up 4th. Mr. Money was next, followed by Roiland, Bankit, Hog Creek Hustle, War of Will, Limonite, and Lemniscate. If I want anyone out of this race, it is Spinoff. It looks like they will press on with War of Will. I do not like his Derby chances at all. He is exiting a below par effort and probably peaked over the winter. He will be meeting a full group of sharp, improving horses on the first Saturday in May.
Sunland Derby (G3) from Sunland Park (3-23-19) - Winner: Cutting Humor ($6.60)
Mucho Gusto was the strong favorite in this one, and he set sail for the lead from the inside post under Joe Talamo. He went too fast early and paid the price late in a distant show finish. Cutting Humor was always well placed under John Velazquez and got first run. He needed that jump because Anothertwistafate was charging late but came up a neck short. The latter had a less than ideal trip but never stopped trying and proved that he could handle dirt. He won his previous three all-weather routes in front running fashion and is definitely not a need to lead type. Mucho Gusto was about six lengths behind the top two and was followed by Wicked Indeed, Eye Cloud, Pasamonte Man, Hustle Up, Collusionist, and Walker Stalker.
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Latest Workout: 4f in 48.80 (7/23) at Santa Anita on March 26.
Comments: We finally got to see Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he did not disappoint despite losing by a neck. He was supposed to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes on March 9, but that was was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He has shipped to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and the strong favorite rallied to miss by a nose. Fellow California shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on him and won the battle, but Game Winner brushed off the rust and appears poised to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6. I am sure that Bob Baffert is not worried about losing a mile and a sixteenth prep. He just needed to get a race into his talented runner and the Rebel Stakes was a means to an end. The goal is to peak on the first Saturday in May, and that may very well happen.
Derby Points (45)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s other unbeaten juvenile was also supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe, and ended up in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park last Saturday due to the well documented surface issues at Santa Anita Park. He ran a quality race from the outside post and missed by a neck while racing wide throughout under Drayden van Dyke. I fully expect him to be much fitter in his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13, and Jose Ortiz will be his new rider. I would not be surprised to see both Baffert runners win their final Derby points races next month and head to Churchill Downs as the two favorites.
Derby Points (25)
(3) CODE OF HONOR (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 48.40 (1/12) at Payson Park on March 25.
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He is as talented as any sophomore in the land and is getting good at the right time. He drew post 9 for the Florida Derby (G1) and is the 3-1 second choice on the morning line.
Derby Points (54)
(4) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.00 (2/39) at Payson Park on March 22.
Comments: Returned to the list for the second time after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs, and he sure seems like a mile and a quarter type. It looks like he will make his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 6.
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.40 (1/7) at Payson Park on March 22.
Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite in his stakes debut. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano.
Derby Points (5)
(6) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy put his three-race all-weather route wins streak on the line in the Sunland Derby (G3) on March 24, and he finished strongly to miss by a neck in a fine effort. The Sunland Derby may have been his best effort yet because he proved that he could sit behind horses and handle regular dirt. He owns dangerous early-pressing versatility and should be able to handle a mile and a quarter. He remains at Sunland Park and could end up running in one more race prior to Derby if he needs more points.
Derby Points (30)
(7) SPINOFF (Hard Spun - Zaftig, by Gone West)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Werthheimer and Frere)
Comments: I have liked this one since he ran 3rd in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his second career start last summer. It was great to see him stretch out and improve in his romping Tampa Bay Downs return Feb. 22, and he continued his upward trajectory in an excellent runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds on March 23. His tactical speed in a big asset and he appears to be getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (40)
(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 48.00 (1/26) at Fair Hill (all-weather training) on March 23.
Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did just enough in that event to remain on my list. He deserves final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early. It looks like he will go next in either the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland or Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, and a final decision will be made after he works again on March 30.
Derby Points (10)
(9) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.82 (10/14) at Palm Beach Downs on March 23.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep, which will be at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) on April 6.
Derby Points (10 points)
(10) ROADSTER (Quality Road - Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.00 (4/8) at Santa Anita Park on March 26.
Comments: I have been patiently waiting to get one of my original “exceptional eleven” members back on my list ever since his sharp optional claiming win at Santa Anita on March 1. That was his first start since a show finish in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last summer, and he sure was impressive. We saw what he was capable of in his winning debut at Del Mar last July. He overcame the intimidating inside post in his professional debut at Del Mar, and his return victory was a big step in the right direction. He stalked the pace in his first route try on March 1 and pulled clear to easily best highly regarded John Sadler runner Nolo Contesto. He will get his first and only points race test in the Santa Anita Derby on April 6, and he has three solid works this month in preparation for that test. He will qualify for Kentucky Derby 2019 with a 1st or 2nd place finish.
(11) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Comments: I liked the progress he made in his first four starts, but I was expecting more in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He showed a bit more maturity in that event, but did not get a ton of pace help and flattened out late after making nice progress to get into contention turning for home. I still think there is a bit more talent than he has shown, and if he can break a bit better, he could jump up and win a graded event. He is frequently at the mercy of the pace and needs racing luck, and there is a chance that he runs in one final points race. His position at the bottom of the list is very shaky, and he will most likely be replaced by Bourbon War if that one runs a quality race in the Florida Derby.
Derby Points (30)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Omaha Beach, (14) By My Standards, (15) Long Range Toddy, (16) Haikal, (17) War of Will, (18) Signalman, (19) Cutting Humor, (20) Instagrand
Kentucky Derby 2019 blog by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Salespage later this spring.
Gulfstream Park 3/30/2019 Race 14: Gr. I Florida Derby (3yr M, 1-1/8 Mile Dirt, $1,000,000) Available Points: 100-40-20-10 Weather: High in 70’s to low 80’s with little chance of precipitation
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Saturday’s $1,000,000 Florida Derby will be the final prep race at Gulfstream for Kentucky Derby 2019.In a year that has yet to yield a clear-cut favorite for the Derby, this race could shape up to be a pivotal one leading up to the first Saturday in May. In years past this race has been an important prep as horses like Always Dreaming, Nyquist, and Orb all went on to win the Derby after their Florida Derby score. A field of 11 will take to the starting gate with 170 total qualifying points on the line so without further ado, let’s look at the contenders:
2019 Florida Derby Contenders
1- Hidden Scroll Javier Castellano Bill Mott 5-2
2 - Current Manny Franco Todd Pletcher 15-1
3 - Harvey Wallbanger Brian Hernandez Jr. Kenny McPeek 15-1
4 - Bourbon War Irad Ortiz Jr. Mark Hennig 7-2
5 - Everfast Chris Landeros Dale Romans 20-1
6 - Hard Belle Jose Batista Jamie Mejia 50-1
7 - Maximum Security Luis Saez Jason Servis 9-2
8 - Bodexpress Nik Juarez Gustavo Delgado 30-1
9 - Code of Honor John Velazquez Shug McGaughey 3-1
10 - Union’s Destiny Leonel Reyes Juan Avila 30-1
11 - Garter and Tie Jeffrey Sanchez Ralph Nicks 15-1
#1 – Hidden Scroll: Broke his maiden first time out back here on January 26th in impressive fashion with a gate to wire 14 length romp over a sloppy track.Mott moved him right up to the graded stakes ranks with a start in the Gr. II Fountain of Youth where the Hard Spun colt faded to fourth down the lane after setting fast early fractions.Given how fast he ran during the opening stages, it was another solid performance considering it was only his second start.Hidden Scroll only lost by about three lengths to Code of Honor so he should be more tuned up for this performance on Saturday.Mott will make a rider change to Javier Castellano and if he can get Hidden Scroll to tone it down a bit in the early stages he should be right there at the end.
#2 – Current: Pletcher will send out Current who has made five starts over the grass and comes into this race with a 6-2-0-2 record.The son of Curlin won the Gr. III Bourbon Stakes back in October at Keeneland (third start) where he sat at the back of the pack before making a strong run down the stretch.He got up to win by a nose over some quality horses in War of Will and Henley’s Joy int hat effort.He does have one start over the dirt which came in the Gr. II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill back in late November.That race was over a sloppy surface so he could improve on a fast track, but he’ll need to take a step forward from a speed figure standpoint to compete with this group.This will be his second start of the year and his breeding does suggest the surface and the distance should not be a problem.Interesting horse and might be one to consider in the exotics.
#3 – Harvey Wallbanger: The longshot winner of the Gr. II Holy Bull back here in early February skipped the Fountain of Youth and will make his second start of 2019.Harvey Wallbanger has never been out of the exacta in five career starts and does have some nice back class when looking at his past foes.Last time out in the Gr. II Holy Bull, the son of Congrats sat in last for the early stages before making a strong move up the rail entering the final turn.He drove through tight quarters in doing so and the more I watch his last race the more impressed I get.He’ll need a fast pace to close into but with Hidden Scroll and Maximum Security in here he may just get it.One to include in your tickets.
#4 – Bourbon War: Jumped on this guy’s bandwagon after his two-length score in an optional claiming race back here on January 18th after encountering some trouble in the early stages. Cutting Humor finished second in that race who recently came back to win the Gr. III Sunland Park Derby last weekend in track record setting fashion. He followed that up with a strong second place finish in the Gr. II Fountain of Youth Stakes in which he finished about three-quarters of a length behind Honor Code.I believe he’ll like the added distance and I think Ortiz will have him closer to the pace on Saturday.Strong win contender.
#5 – Everfast: Comes into this race with eight career starts with one victory, one second and one third place finish.The son of Take Charge Indy ran a career best when finishing second in the Gr. II Holy Bull behind Harvey Wallbanger but that performance seems like an anomaly considering his other races.Landeros should have him in good position behind the front runners but he’ll need to take a drastic step forward to make some noise again. #6 – Hard Belle: Has mostly ran in sprint races thus far with his longest coming at one mile over the dirt in which he finished a distant third last December, and the other coming in a 1-1/16th contest over the turf in the Gr. III Palm Beach Stakes.Jose Batista will get the mount for trainer Jaime Mejia and he should be a pace factor come Saturday.Will pass on him here.
#7 – Maximum Security: One of the outliers in this race is the Jason Servis trainee in Maximum Security.He is three for three in his early career, all wins coming in sprint races so he will be stretching out for the first time.His sire won the BC Juvenile back in 2013 and his dam, Lil Indy was a miler on her best day, so I am unsure if he’ll like the 9F distance.He takes a huge step up from a competition standpoint, but his early running style could allow him to hang in for a piece if Hidden Scroll does not go with him early.I will take the wait and see approach with this one so will look elsewhere in this spot.
#8 – Bodexpress: The son of Bodemeister will get his second try routing with his first attempt resulting in a distant fourth place finish over the slop back here on January 26th.Hidden Scroll was the victor that day so you may excuse his effort as the surface may not have been to his liking.This one is still a maiden however and I don’t see him beating the likes of this group.Nik Juarez will be in the saddle once again and I see them sitting no further than five lengths off the speed horses in the early stages.Could be another one to include in the exotics.
#9 – Code of Honor: Will make his third start of 2019 for trainer Shug McGaughey who seems like a different horse after his fourth-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes back here in early January.Since then, he came back to win the Gr. II Fountain of Youth Stakes in which he was able to hold of the late charge of Bourbon War.In the Fountain of Youth, Velazquez was able to grab good position down on the rail in which the pair was fifth for most of the backstretch.He began to pick up steam entering the final turn and had enough to cross the wire first, but his stride was shortening a bit approaching the wire and if the race was any further Bourbon War would have got him.Given this will be his second start off the layoff maybe he’ll be more fit and be able to maintain his form for the extra half furlong.Should be one to include on your tickets however I am still not 100% sold on this guy for the Derby.
#10 – Union’s Destiny: Steadily improving type for Juan Avila who finished sixth in the Gr. II Fountain of Youth back here on March second.He took off from post 11 in that race and went super wide into the first turn but with a similar position I am not sure he’ll get a much better set-up.Would not be surprised to see Reyes drop back and move him closer to the rail entering the first turn and being his second start of 2019, an improvement would not be out of the question.His sire, Union Rags won the Belmont Stakes back in 2012 and his dam, Ms Anna Destiny was an ungraded stakes winner sprinting so it will be interesting to see how the extra distance treats him.I think he’s up against it in this spot, but I see this one improving as the year goes on.I see him finishing fourth through sixth here.
#11 – Garter and Tie: The Ralph Nicks trainee will be getting the blinkers off for the first time in his eight-race career and does have a dreadful post given the short run into the first turn.It will be interesting to see what Sanchez does out of the gate as he must gun him to the front or pull up and move towards the rail to have any shot.His last start came in the Gr. II Holy Bull in which he took up running at the back of the pack.He managed to make up some ground for a sixth-place finish in which he was only beaten by five lengths.Will need to take a big step up to compete with the best in this spot.
Top Four: 4 – 3 – 1 - 9
About Josh:
Originally from Upstate New York, Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".
Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.
Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).
The Road to Kentucky Derby 2019makes one stop this weekend, and it might be an important one. The Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park will be run on Saturday, March 2, and romping debut winner Hidden Scroll is the morning line favorite.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) from Gulfstream Park (3-2-19)
GP 13 (G2 Fountain of Youth, 8.5f) #4 BOURBON WAR (10-1) gets pace to chase and exits a sharp optional claiming victory at this course/distance (150 Final Rating w/strong 32.0 Last Fraction). #8 Global Campaign (10-1) pressed the pace and kicked well clear in both of his local starts (137, 141 Final Rating). This is a tough spot for the promising, well bred son of Curlin. #7 Hidden Scroll (9-5) ran fast throughout in his local flat mile maiden romp in the slop (153 Final Rating). He looms a pace factor at the very least and this is a good two turn stakes test on dry land vs. quality competition. #5 Vekoma (7-2) won both of his starts last year including the Nashua (G3). He shows six works for this and figures to stalk the pace. #6 Signalman (9-2) ran well in all five starts last year including a trio of top three finishes in Kentucky Derby points races. He is hoping for contested early fractions and might be able to land a share. #1 Code of Honor (6-1) drew well and deserves another chance after a flat 4th in the Mucho Macho Man. He was a sharp debut winner at Saratoga last summer and overcame a bad start to finish a clear 2nd in the Champagne (G1) second time out. He is training well for this. THE PLAYS: #4 & #8 to win, Trifecta 1-4-5-7-8/1-4-5-7-8/6
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(1)GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Latest Workout: 6f from the gate in 1:13.60 (3/11) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 25.
Comments: It has been a long time since we have seen Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion. He went 4-for-4 as a juvenile including a trio of grade one victories (Del Mar Futurity, American Pharoah Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile). The BC Juvenile has been a productive race so far. Show finisher Signalman returned to take the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). 5th place finisher Gunmetal Gray won the Sham Stakes (G3) in his next start, and 7th place finisher Mind Control won the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on New Year’s Day. Well Defined finished 12th in the Juvenile and captured the Sam F. Davis (G3) on Feb. 9. He was not a next-out winner (5th in Mucho Macho Man Jan. 5) but did become the fourth Juvenile runner to win a points race. He has a strong pedigree, Derby-winning connections, class, running style versatility, and is in great shape as the current Derby points leader. He returned to the work tab Jan. 9 and is expected to have two Derby preps this year (San Felipe & SA Derby likely targets). The San Felipe is on March 9 at Santa Anita Park, and the Santa Anita Derby is on April 6.
Derby Points (30)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Latest Workout: 6f bullet in 1:12 (1/11) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 25.
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s unbeaten colt got better as distances increased in a trio of 2018 starts. In his final start as a 2-year-old, he was the strong favorite in the Lost Alamitos Futurity (G1) on Dec. 8, and he stalked the pace and won for fun from the inside post at a mile and a sixteenth. He really kicked it in high gear in late stretch in that race and seems to want more ground. Troubled Los Al Futurity show finisher Extra Hope was a next-out allowance winner on a wet track at Santa Anita Jan. 31. Los Al Futurity runner-up Mucho Gusto won the Robert Lewis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 2. The son of City Zip returned to the work tab Jan. 9 and the latest word is that he will take on his stablemate Game Winner in the San Felipe on March 9. Bob Baffert is known to change his mind when it comes to Derby preps, so we shall see if his two big Derby contenders face off on March 9 at Santa Anita.
Derby Points (10)
(3) SIGNALMAN (General Quarters - Trip South, by Trippi)
Trainer (Ken McPeek) - Owner (Magdalena Racing)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.75 (15/44) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 23.
Comments: This one racked up the Derby points as a juvenile with top three finishes in the Breeders’ Futurity (2nd), BC Juvenile (3rd), and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (1st). He sure was consistent last year and had his first published workout of 2019 on Jan. 26. He makes his 3-year-old bow in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He has had five workouts this year (thru Feb. 23) and trainer Ken McPeek probably won’t have him fully cranked for his sophomore debut. I would like to see him finish up well and hit the board on Saturday while picking up a few more Derby points.
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.00 (1/3) at Payson Park on Feb. 22.
Comments: Could not have been more impressive in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile maiden special weight affair for three-year-olds, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and he widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. He is bred to handle a route of ground and could be any kind of performer. His aforementioned debut was on a wet track and I want to see if he can run the same race on dry land. We will learn much more about him in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, and he is the morning line favorite.
(5) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Latest Workout: 5f gate bullet in 59.20 (1/33) at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 24.
Comments: Lost for the first time after a bad start from the rail in the Heft Stakes at Laurel Park Dec. 29. He was clearly second best that day and talented winner Alwaysmining has now won three straight (2 stakes wins). Michael Trombetta’s improving colt shipped to Tampa Bay Downs and ran off the screen in the Pasco Stakes at seven panels after a slow start on Jan. 19, and he is now 3-for-4 with a 2nd in sprint races. He is targeting the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) on March 9 and is training well for that engagement, and that will be his first try over a route of ground.
(6) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Comments: There have been eleven Derby points races so far this year, and War of Will had two of the better looking victories in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks and months. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Derby Points (60)
(7) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still green. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together.
Derby Points (20)
(8) INSTAGRAND (Into Mischief - Assets of War, by Lawyer Ron)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:26.60 (2/2) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 25.
Comments: He was untouchable in his first two dirt sprints last summer (both 10-length romps) including the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar. The $1.2 million purchase has not started since 8-11-18 and that was a decision made by his owner. I am not sure how far he ultimately wants to go but he certainly showed a lot of promise as a juvenile. He was expected to make his first 3-year-old start in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 9, but will instead run in the Gotham Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct that same day. This was definitely the right move. He has not been seen in quite some time and the one turn mile in New York makes much more sense.
(9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24.
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 59.87 (1/6) at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 23.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He was originally slated to go in the Remsen Stakes but got a break instead, and he returned to the work tab in Florida on Jan. 12. He has some route and sprint influences in his pedigree, and we will see how far he wants to go in the near future. He goes next in the Fountain of Youth, and we will learn much more about him in that event.
(11) GUNMETAL GRAY (Exchange Rate - Classofsixtythree, by Include)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (West Point Thoroughbreds and Jerry Hollendorfer)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:15.20 (14/23) at Santa Anita Park on March 1.
Comments: Has competed in four points races over a route of ground with a win in the Sham (G3) and runner-up finishes in the American Pharoah (G1) and Robert Lewis (G3). I thought that his Robert Lewis runner-up finish was his best race to date. He proved that he could handle a wet track that day and showed nice late interest over a speed favoring surface. I still think that he is a cut below the best at this stage but he does have some stamina and a decent late kick.
Derby Points (18)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Code of Honor, (13) Dream Maker, (14) Extra Hope, (15) Roadster, (16) Bourbon War, (17) Mucho, (18) Spinoff, (19) Tacitus, (20) Mucho Gusto
Kentucky Derby 2019 article by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Salespage later this spring.
