Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recap: Ownedale Upsets Anothertwistafate in Lexington Stakes

Keeneland Race Course
4/13/2019
Race Round-Up (R9): Gr. III Lexington Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/16th Mile Dirt, $200,000)
Track Condition: Fast
Final Time: 1:44.14 (24.33), (48.23), (1:12.88), (1:38.05)


Anothertwistafate and Sueno were on the outside looking in on the Kentucky Derby 2019 leader board and a victory by either might have solidified a spot in the starting gate.  Owendale squashed those dreams with a powerful wide trip victory under Florent Geroux.  The son of Into Mischief broke through the graded ranks and crossed the wire at 1:44.14.  Trainer Brad Cox is not one to overlook and certainly knows how to win big races.  We could possibly see this guy in the Preakness however I would not be surprised to see Cox looking elsewhere.

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Owendale capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.


With his second-place finish, Anothertwistafate sits in 23rd on the leader board with 38 points (tied with Signalman). Sueno now has 32 points and sits in 24th on the Derby leaderboard.  A few horses would have to scratch or opt out of the race for these two to get in.

Read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse...

Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Video: Arkansas Derby & Lexington Stakes

Check out my top win contenders for the Arkansas Derby & Lexington Stakes in my Today's Racing Digest video below!

Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: End of the Line for Derby Points Races

This is the final week for points races on the Road to Kentucky Derby 2019. Omaha Beach and Improbable are the two favorites in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, April 13, and Anothertwistafate and Sueno square off in the Lexington Stakes (G3) on the same day at Keeneland.   

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Omaha Beach capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.


Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis for Saturday (4-13-19)


KEE 9 (G3 Lexington, 8.5f) #4 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (2-1) proved that he could handle dirt in a surging place finish in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24 (137 CPR, 155 Pace Rating, 149 Final Rating). I like his early-pressing versatility and Castellano should have options. He drilled a Sunland bullet for this April 4 and has the talent to make short work of this group. #3 Sueno (5-1) fired trifecta shots in all six starts including a trio of underneath finishes in Derby points races (2nd in G3 Sham, 2nd in G3 Southwest, 3rd in G2 LA Derby). He projects another decent tactical trip under Lanerie. #5 Harvey Wallbanger (7-2) and #10 Roiland (15-1) did not get much pace help in the Florida Derby (G1) and LA Derby (G2) in their last starts. I can see one or both hitting the board if the pace heats up. The Plays: #4 to win, Exacta 4-3, Trifecta Key 4/3-5-10 


OP 11 (G1 Arkansas Derby, 9f) #8 COUNTRY HOUSE (12-1) is slowly improving for Mott and this would be a great time to put it all together. Rosario might be a good fit for this one and there is pace to chase today. He was off slow and wide in the LA Derby (G2), and he flattened out in the lane after putting in a big run around the far turn (improved 106 FIRE). Plus, the speed did not come back that day, but it might in this spot. #3 Omaha Beach (2-1) has put in all together in his last pair and gamely beat Game Winner in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) March 16. He is firing bullets for this and could easily score again. #1 Improbable (8-5) adds blinkers and goes from the outside post in the Rebel Stakes (G2) to the rail in this longer event. He won all three starts last year from inner posts including a razor sharp score from the rail in the Los Al Futurity (G1). He drilled a SA bullet for this April 5. #11 Long Range Toddy (5-1) always finishes in the top three in these points races, He will have to work out a trip from the outside post and he upset Improbable in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) under today’s rider Jon Court March 16. #7 Galilean (10-1) removes blinkers after an okay 3rd in the 1st division of the Rebel Stakes (G2). He figures to stalk the pace under Prat. #5 Laughing Fox (20-1) was pinched at the start and never got involved vs. Omaha Beach last time. He fired a bullet in the local mud April 8 and deserves another chance in the stakes ranks. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/1-3, Exacta 1-3/8, Superfecta 8/1-3/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/8/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/1-3-11/8/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11/8


Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps  


Blue Grass Stakes (G2) Recap (4-6-19) - Winner: Vekoma ($4.80)


Vekoma did not disappoint as the favorite in his final Derby prep. He chased the pace from 2nd, took the lead, and rode the speed bias to an easy 3-1/2 length victory. He was good as a juvenile and has improved this year. He will have to improve again to compete for a top prize on the first Saturday in May. Win Win Win rallied to grab the place in the final strides and has also secured his spot in the Derby. Signalman stalked the pace and just missed the place. He finished in the top three in four of his five points races and is #18 on the Derby points list. Somelikeithotbrown battled on the pace and weakened late to finish 4th. He is currently #21 on the points list (30 points) and is on the outside looking in. Chess Chief, So Alive, Sir Winston, Admire, Moonster, Lucky Lee, Market King, Aquadini, Dream Maker, and Parsimony completed the order of finish. 

You can read the rest of this post at The Runaway Horse...

Kentucky Derby 2019 Video Series Featuring Anothertwistafate & Sueno

My Kentucky Derby 2019 under the radar video series continues with the Lexington Stakes (G30 at Keeneland on April 13, 2019. In this video, I take a look at Anothertwistafate and Sueno. 

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Sueno capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Video by Jarrod Horak

You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.  

Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Analysis: Anothertwistafate Strong Win Threat in Lexington Stakes

Race 9: Gr. III Lexington Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/16th Mile Dirt, $200,000)
Available Points: 20-8-4-2
Weather: Cloudy with a high in the 60’s with low chance of precipitation.


This will be the final weekend of the Kentucky Derby 2019 prep races and the last hope for some of these runners trying to up their total in hopes of making it to the starting gate on May 4th.


Anothertwistafate sits in 23rd with 30 points and first or second place finish should guarantee his spot.  Sueno currently sits in 25th with 28 points and he’ll need a win here to qualify.  Last week, the connections of Master Fencer (JPN) stated they will be making the trip to Louisville so that did knock a couple horses down the leader board.  There usually are a couple deflections going into the Derby by way of sickness, injury or the trainers just not opting to run so a horse sitting around 21st – 24th may get lucky regardless if they don’t run this weekend.

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Anothertwistafate capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.


Without further ado, let’s look at the contenders:


2019 Lexington Contenders


1- Shang
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Steve Asmussen
10-1


2 - Hawaiian Noises
John Velazquez
Wesley Ward
10-1


3 - Sueno
Corey Lanerie
Keith Desormeaux
5-1


4 - Anothertwistafate
Javier Castellano
Blaine Wright
2-1


5 - Harvey Wallbanger
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Kenny McPeek
7-2


6 - Chase the Ghost
Miguel Mena
Dallas Stewart
30-1


7 - Knicks Go
Albin Jimenez
Ben Colebrook
15-1


8 - Owendale
Florent Geroux
Brad Cox
12-1


9 - Zenden
Tyler Gaffalione
Victor Barboza
6-1


10 - Roiland
James Graham
Tom Amoss
15-1


#1 – Shang: Has won four straight races ranging from 6F to 8.5F for trainer Steve Asmussen.  His last two wins came when he was sitting just off the pace so I imagine Irad will do the same here (no more than five back in the early stages).  Can’t knock the connections for trying here but with no points on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard one would assume this might be a prep for the Preakness.  Asmussen trained Shang’s dam Humble Janet who won four times from 17 starts, three coming at a mile and one at a mile and a sixteenth.  She also placed in two Gr. III races over a mile.  Shang is a son of Shanghai Bobby who won the Gr. I BC Juvenile back in 2012 so the distance should not be a problem. Possible exotic play.


#2 – Hawaiian Noises: Wesley Ward trainee has won three in a row with two coming over the synthetic surface (Turfway Park) and the other coming over the dirt back here in October.  Those were all sprints however and this will be  his first-time routing.  In his last start he won an ungraded stake on March 9th which was also his first race of 2019.  He could improve second off a layoff and dose own some nice works over the track as of late.  Hawaiian Noises is by Super Saver who won the Kentucky Derby in 2010 and his dam, Lastofthesummerwine only raced one and finished second in a sprint over the synthetic.  Seems like the artificial surface will be more to his liking so I’ll pass here.


#3 – Sueno: The Atreides colt has never missed the board in six starts and was last seen finishing third in the Gr. II Louisiana Derby on March 23rd.  His Brisnet speed figures have been steadily improving and he needs a win to solidify his spot in the Derby starting gate.  Last time out in the Gr. II Louisiana Derby he had a perfect trip sitting right behind the pace setter but ultimately could not keep up with By My Standards and Spinoff down the lane.  I see him being a bit further back than his usually running style as there are some fast horses in here, however he should be getting a nice trip down by or close to the rail.  Desormeaux obviously feels he’s Derby material or he would have not opted to run here.


#4 – Anothertwistafate: The 2-1 morning line favorite and deservingly so after his last two performances.  Two races back he took the El Camino Derby in gate to wire fashion over the synthetic surface at Golden going 9F.  The son of Scat Daddy then went down to Sunland Park where he finished a game second behind Cutting humor in the Gr. III Sunland Park Derby on March 24th.  If he runs his race, I feel he dominates this field.  Strong win contender.


#5 – Harvey Wallbanger: Disappointed last time out in the Gr. I Florida Derby where he did very little running.  The fractions were slow during the early stages, but he really had no excuse for such an effort.  Prior to that effort he never missed the exacta in five starts and does get a little class relief here.  The pace in here looks quick and I do think that should benefit him, so a rebound effort is not out of the question.  As of now, Harvey Wallbanger has 10 points on the Derby trail and even with a victory here on Saturday he still wouldn’t crack the top 20.  The only way he gets in is if he wins this race, and at least four or five horses opt out of the Derby.  Can’t discount him here and going back to 8.5F should be more suitable.


#6 – Chase the Ghost: Comes into this race with a 7-1-2-0 record with just under $50K in career earnings.  Dallas Stewart has been known to blow up an exacta or two, however I can’t see this horse beating this group.  In the Gr. II Risen Star, he did have some trouble down the stretch but he was not getting to the winners that day regardless.  I see Mena sitting off the pace and making a late run turning for home.  Will pass here.


#7 – Knicks Go: Has not returned to his two-year old form  and has two poor efforts in the Gr. II Sam F. Davis and the Gr. III Gotham.  The last time this horse won, it was over this very track (October).  This will be his third start off the layoff and Jimenez will have him up on the pace during the early stages.  I still feel this one’s best days are behind him however he if hit the board I would not be totally surprised.


#8 – Owendale: Was last seen finishing 8th in the Gr. II Risen Star back on February 16th.  From looking at his past performances I don’t think this guy wants to go much farther than a mile.  Two races back he won over a good surface when pressing the pace after he took off from post one in a six-horse field.  Florent Geroux will take the mount and he and Cox have been winning at a 34% clip over the last 60 days (47 mounts).  Could use underneath.


#9 – Zenden: This guy will likely be a pace factor and if I am the jock, I send him right to the front as there is a not much runway going into the first turn.  Last time out in the Gr. II Tampa Bay Derby, this guy set blistering fractions and held on to finish fourth behind Tacitus and Win Win Win, both of whom have came back to run huge in their following starts.  The son of Fed Biz will be making his third start off a layoff for trainer Victor Barboza and Tyler Gaffalione will take over the mount.  Could be maturing at the right time and I expect a solid effort in this spot.


#10 – Roiland: Another improving type for Tom Amoss but he just doesn’t seem to be a Derby horse in my eyes.  His last four starts have come in the graded stakes ranks with his best finish being a third in the Gr. II Risen Star.  Given his late running style a fast pace could play out to his benefit and it would not shock me for him to finish third or fourth in here.  I would imagine Graham takes him to the rail during the early stages trying to save ground and find his way through late down the lane.    


Top Four: 4 – 9 – 5 - 1


You can read all of our Derby blogs on our Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and our annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on our Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.   


About Josh:


Originally from Upstate New York,  Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".


Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga  Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.  


​​Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).

Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: Florida Derby Preview Featuring Code of Honor

There are a couple of races on the Road to Kentucky Derby 2019 this weekend including the Florida Derby. Hidden Scroll tries to rebound after getting cooked on the lead in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2). The UAE Derby from Dubai is the other big weekend points race, and that race looks like a mad scramble.

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Code of Honor capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.


Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis 


GP 14 (G1 Florida Derby, 9f) #4 BOURBON WAR (7-2) rallied and fell 3/4ths of a length short as my top choice in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He drew well, gets pace to chase, and should love today’s added ground. I think the improving son of Tapit can get there this time under Ortiz Jr., but he does not need to win to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. He has 21 points, and if he runs 3rd, he picks up another 20 points, and that would get him into the gate on the first Saturday in May. #1 Hidden Scroll (5-2) drew the rail and almost has to go to the lead. He was sensational in his local flat mile debut on a wet track, and actually did well to hold 4th after using too much early energy in the Fountain of Youth (G2) March 2. He gets a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano and could easily go all the way. #9 Code of Honor (3-1) sat a great trip behind the speed from the inside post in the Fountain of Youth, and he is firing bullets for this. I love his versatility and he might score again but he won’t be 9-1 this time. #2 Current(15-1) has shown ability in the turf stakes ranks and Todd Pletcher has been on a roll in recent points races. I can see him hitting the board at a price. #7 Maximum Security (9-2) stretches out and faces a salty graded group after a trio of facile victories vs. much lesser local sprinters. Jason Servis is a high % trainer and he looms a pace factor at the very least under Luis Saez. He might end up compromising Hidden Scroll on the front end, but I don’t know if he will be able to hang in there throughout. The Plays: #4 to win, Exacta Box 1-4, Trifecta 1-4/1-2-4-9/1-2-4-9, Trifecta 1/ALL/4 


MEY 5 (G1 UAE Derby, 9.5f) #5 DERMA LOUVRE (12-1) might like this longer trip. His biggest win last year was a 7-length romp in his longest start at a mile and an eighth. After that maiden win, he won a couple of races as the chalk at seven panels, and finished his 2018 campaign with a head defeat in a flat mile event in the mud. He showed decent late interest in a show finish Feb 17 and might be ready to move forward. #1 Walking Thunder (5-1) easily won his first three starts before settling for the place in the UAE Guineas (G3) Feb 7. Dettori ends up here and he is a solid threat if able to navigate today’s added ground. #6 Divine Image(2-1) is getting better and can run all day. She exits back-to-back course/distance wins and put it all together in a romping win March 9. This is her toughest test to date and she won’t offer much value. #8 Gray Magician (15-1) was beaten by very good Maryland-bred Alwaysmining in the Miracle Wood at Laurel Feb. 16. He has some speed and might get brave if able to shake loose early under Joel Rosario. #11 Van Beethoven (10-1) might surprise for Aidan O’Brien. He was a group two winner in a turf sprint last year and returned with an even 4th in an all-weather flat mile event March 6. The son of Scat Daddy is bred to handle dirt. The Plays: #5 to win, Exacta Box 1-5, Trifecta 1-5/1-5-6/1-5-6-8-11


Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps


Louisiana Derby (G2) from Fair Grounds (3-23-19) - Winner: By My Standards 


War of Will was the strong favorite but took an awkward step early and never got seriously involved. That threw this race wide open, and By My Standards sat a better trip than runner-up Spinoff and prevailed by less than a length. The runner-up broke from post 10, stalked wide, and did everything but win while well clear of show horse Sueno. It should be noted that none of the top three competed in any of the prior points races at Fair Grounds, and that probably means that War of Will was beating nothing in the Lecomte and Risen Star. Country House made a wide, threatening move from the back but flattened out and ended up 4th. Mr. Money was next, followed by Roiland, Bankit, Hog Creek Hustle, War of Will, Limonite, and Lemniscate. If I want anyone out of this race, it is Spinoff. It looks like they will press on with War of Will. I do not like his Derby chances at all. He is exiting a below par effort and probably peaked over the winter. He will be meeting a full group of sharp, improving horses on the first Saturday in May. 


Sunland Derby (G3) from Sunland Park (3-23-19) - Winner: Cutting Humor ($6.60)


Mucho Gusto was the strong favorite in this one, and he set sail for the lead from the inside post under Joe Talamo. He went too fast early and paid the price late in a distant show finish. Cutting Humor was always well placed under John Velazquez and got first run. He needed that jump because Anothertwistafate was charging late but came up a neck short. The latter had a less than ideal trip but never stopped trying and proved that he could handle dirt. He won his previous three all-weather routes in front running fashion and is definitely not a need to lead type. Mucho Gusto was about six lengths behind the top two and was followed by Wicked Indeed, Eye Cloud, Pasamonte Man, Hustle Up, Collusionist, and Walker Stalker. 


Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders (3-29-19)


(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)


Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)


Latest Workout: 4f in 48.80 (7/23) at Santa Anita on March 26. 


Comments: We finally got to see Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he did not disappoint despite losing by a neck. He was supposed to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes on March 9, but that was was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He has shipped to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and the strong favorite rallied to miss by a nose. Fellow California shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on him and won the battle, but Game Winner brushed off the rust and appears poised to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6. I am sure that Bob Baffert is not worried about losing a mile and a sixteenth prep. He just needed to get a race into his talented runner and the Rebel Stakes was a means to an end. The goal is to peak on the first Saturday in May, and that may very well happen. 


Derby Points (45)


(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)


Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)


Comments: Bob Baffert’s other unbeaten juvenile was also supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe, and ended up in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park last Saturday due to the well documented surface issues at Santa Anita Park. He ran a quality race from the outside post and missed by a neck while racing wide throughout under Drayden van Dyke. I fully expect him to be much fitter in his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13, and Jose Ortiz will be his new rider. I would not be surprised to see both Baffert runners win their final Derby points races next month and head to Churchill Downs as the two favorites. 


Derby Points (25) 


(3) CODE OF HONOR  (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)


Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)


Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 48.40 (1/12) at Payson Park on March 25. 


Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He is as talented as any sophomore in the land and is getting good at the right time. He drew post 9 for the Florida Derby (G1) and is the 3-1 second choice on the morning line. 


Derby Points (54)


(4) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)


Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.) 


Latest Workout: 4f in 49.00 (2/39) at Payson Park on March 22. 


Comments: Returned to the list for the second time after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs, and he sure seems like a mile and a quarter type. It looks like he will make his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 6. 


Derby Points (50) 


(5) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)


Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)


Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.40 (1/7) at Payson Park on March 22. 


Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout.  He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite in his stakes debut. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano. 


Derby Points (5) 


(6) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)


Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)


Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy put his three-race all-weather route wins streak on the line in the Sunland Derby (G3) on March 24, and he finished strongly to miss by a neck in a fine effort. The Sunland Derby may have been his best effort yet because he proved that he could sit behind horses and handle regular dirt. He owns dangerous early-pressing versatility and should be able to handle a mile and a quarter. He remains at Sunland Park and could end up running in one more race prior to Derby if he needs more points. 


Derby Points (30)


(7) SPINOFF (Hard Spun - Zaftig, by Gone West)


Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Werthheimer and Frere)   


Comments: I have liked this one since he ran 3rd in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his second career start last summer. It was great to see him stretch out and improve in his romping Tampa Bay Downs return Feb. 22, and he continued his upward trajectory in an excellent runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds on March 23. His tactical speed in a big asset and he appears to be getting good at the right time. 


Derby Points (40)


(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)


Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)


Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 48.00 (1/26) at Fair Hill (all-weather training) on March 23. 


Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did just enough in that event to remain on my list. He deserves final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early. It looks like he will go next in either the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland or Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, and a final decision will be made after he works again on March 30. 


Derby Points (10) 


(9) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)


Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)


Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.82 (10/14) at Palm Beach Downs on March 23. 


Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep, which will be at Keeneland in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) on April 6.   


Derby Points (10 points) 


(10) ROADSTER (Quality Road - Ghost Dancing, by Silver Ghost)


Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Speedway Stable LLC)


Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.00 (4/8) at Santa Anita Park on March 26. 


Comments: I have been patiently waiting to get one of my original “exceptional eleven” members back on my list ever since his sharp optional claiming win at Santa Anita on March 1. That was his first start since a show finish in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last summer, and he sure was impressive. We saw what he was capable of in his winning debut at Del Mar last July. He overcame the intimidating inside post in his professional debut at Del Mar, and his return victory was a big step in the right direction. He stalked the pace in his first route try on March 1 and pulled clear to easily best highly regarded John Sadler runner Nolo Contesto. He will get his first and only points race test in the Santa Anita Derby on April 6, and he has three solid works this month in preparation for that test. He will qualify for Kentucky Derby 2019 with a 1st or 2nd place finish. 


(11) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)


Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden) 


Comments: I liked the progress he made in his first four starts, but I was expecting more in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He showed a bit more maturity in that event, but did not get a ton of pace help and flattened out late after making nice progress to get into contention turning for home. I still think there is a bit more talent than he has shown, and if he can break a bit better, he could jump up and win a graded event. He is frequently at the mercy of the pace and needs racing luck, and there is a chance that he runs in one final points race. His position at the bottom of the list is very shaky, and he will most likely be replaced by Bourbon War if that one runs a quality race in the Florida Derby. 


Derby Points (30) 


THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Omaha Beach, (14) By My Standards, (15) Long Range Toddy, (16) Haikal, (17) War of Will, (18) Signalman, (19) Cutting Humor, (20) Instagrand


Kentucky Derby 2019 blog by Jarrod Horak


​You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.