Available Points: 20-8-4-2
Weather: Cloudy with a high in the 60’s with low chance of precipitation.
This will be the final weekend of the Kentucky Derby 2019 prep races and the last hope for some of these runners trying to up their total in hopes of making it to the starting gate on May 4th.
Anothertwistafate sits in 23rd with 30 points and first or second place finish should guarantee his spot. Sueno currently sits in 25th with 28 points and he’ll need a win here to qualify. Last week, the connections of Master Fencer (JPN) stated they will be making the trip to Louisville so that did knock a couple horses down the leader board. There usually are a couple deflections going into the Derby by way of sickness, injury or the trainers just not opting to run so a horse sitting around 21st – 24th may get lucky regardless if they don’t run this weekend.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Anothertwistafate capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Without further ado, let’s look at the contenders:
2019 Lexington Contenders
1- Shang
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Steve Asmussen
10-1
2 - Hawaiian Noises
John Velazquez
Wesley Ward
10-1
3 - Sueno
Corey Lanerie
Keith Desormeaux
5-1
4 - Anothertwistafate
Javier Castellano
Blaine Wright
2-1
5 - Harvey Wallbanger
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Kenny McPeek
7-2
6 - Chase the Ghost
Miguel Mena
Dallas Stewart
30-1
7 - Knicks Go
Albin Jimenez
Ben Colebrook
15-1
8 - Owendale
Florent Geroux
Brad Cox
12-1
9 - Zenden
Tyler Gaffalione
Victor Barboza
6-1
10 - Roiland
James Graham
Tom Amoss
15-1
#1 – Shang: Has won four straight races ranging from 6F to 8.5F for trainer Steve Asmussen. His last two wins came when he was sitting just off the pace so I imagine Irad will do the same here (no more than five back in the early stages). Can’t knock the connections for trying here but with no points on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard one would assume this might be a prep for the Preakness. Asmussen trained Shang’s dam Humble Janet who won four times from 17 starts, three coming at a mile and one at a mile and a sixteenth. She also placed in two Gr. III races over a mile. Shang is a son of Shanghai Bobby who won the Gr. I BC Juvenile back in 2012 so the distance should not be a problem. Possible exotic play.
#2 – Hawaiian Noises: Wesley Ward trainee has won three in a row with two coming over the synthetic surface (Turfway Park) and the other coming over the dirt back here in October. Those were all sprints however and this will be his first-time routing. In his last start he won an ungraded stake on March 9th which was also his first race of 2019. He could improve second off a layoff and dose own some nice works over the track as of late. Hawaiian Noises is by Super Saver who won the Kentucky Derby in 2010 and his dam, Lastofthesummerwine only raced one and finished second in a sprint over the synthetic. Seems like the artificial surface will be more to his liking so I’ll pass here.
#3 – Sueno: The Atreides colt has never missed the board in six starts and was last seen finishing third in the Gr. II Louisiana Derby on March 23rd. His Brisnet speed figures have been steadily improving and he needs a win to solidify his spot in the Derby starting gate. Last time out in the Gr. II Louisiana Derby he had a perfect trip sitting right behind the pace setter but ultimately could not keep up with By My Standards and Spinoff down the lane. I see him being a bit further back than his usually running style as there are some fast horses in here, however he should be getting a nice trip down by or close to the rail. Desormeaux obviously feels he’s Derby material or he would have not opted to run here.
#4 – Anothertwistafate: The 2-1 morning line favorite and deservingly so after his last two performances. Two races back he took the El Camino Derby in gate to wire fashion over the synthetic surface at Golden going 9F. The son of Scat Daddy then went down to Sunland Park where he finished a game second behind Cutting humor in the Gr. III Sunland Park Derby on March 24th. If he runs his race, I feel he dominates this field. Strong win contender.
#5 – Harvey Wallbanger: Disappointed last time out in the Gr. I Florida Derby where he did very little running. The fractions were slow during the early stages, but he really had no excuse for such an effort. Prior to that effort he never missed the exacta in five starts and does get a little class relief here. The pace in here looks quick and I do think that should benefit him, so a rebound effort is not out of the question. As of now, Harvey Wallbanger has 10 points on the Derby trail and even with a victory here on Saturday he still wouldn’t crack the top 20. The only way he gets in is if he wins this race, and at least four or five horses opt out of the Derby. Can’t discount him here and going back to 8.5F should be more suitable.
#6 – Chase the Ghost: Comes into this race with a 7-1-2-0 record with just under $50K in career earnings. Dallas Stewart has been known to blow up an exacta or two, however I can’t see this horse beating this group. In the Gr. II Risen Star, he did have some trouble down the stretch but he was not getting to the winners that day regardless. I see Mena sitting off the pace and making a late run turning for home. Will pass here.
#7 – Knicks Go: Has not returned to his two-year old form and has two poor efforts in the Gr. II Sam F. Davis and the Gr. III Gotham. The last time this horse won, it was over this very track (October). This will be his third start off the layoff and Jimenez will have him up on the pace during the early stages. I still feel this one’s best days are behind him however he if hit the board I would not be totally surprised.
#8 – Owendale: Was last seen finishing 8th in the Gr. II Risen Star back on February 16th. From looking at his past performances I don’t think this guy wants to go much farther than a mile. Two races back he won over a good surface when pressing the pace after he took off from post one in a six-horse field. Florent Geroux will take the mount and he and Cox have been winning at a 34% clip over the last 60 days (47 mounts). Could use underneath.
#9 – Zenden: This guy will likely be a pace factor and if I am the jock, I send him right to the front as there is a not much runway going into the first turn. Last time out in the Gr. II Tampa Bay Derby, this guy set blistering fractions and held on to finish fourth behind Tacitus and Win Win Win, both of whom have came back to run huge in their following starts. The son of Fed Biz will be making his third start off a layoff for trainer Victor Barboza and Tyler Gaffalione will take over the mount. Could be maturing at the right time and I expect a solid effort in this spot.
#10 – Roiland: Another improving type for Tom Amoss but he just doesn’t seem to be a Derby horse in my eyes. His last four starts have come in the graded stakes ranks with his best finish being a third in the Gr. II Risen Star. Given his late running style a fast pace could play out to his benefit and it would not shock me for him to finish third or fourth in here. I would imagine Graham takes him to the rail during the early stages trying to save ground and find his way through late down the lane.
Top Four: 4 – 9 – 5 - 1
You can read all of our Derby blogs on our Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and our annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on our Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
About Josh:
Originally from Upstate New York, Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".
Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.
Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).
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