Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recap: Ownedale Upsets Anothertwistafate in Lexington Stakes

Keeneland Race Course
4/13/2019
Race Round-Up (R9): Gr. III Lexington Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/16th Mile Dirt, $200,000)
Track Condition: Fast
Final Time: 1:44.14 (24.33), (48.23), (1:12.88), (1:38.05)


Anothertwistafate and Sueno were on the outside looking in on the Kentucky Derby 2019 leader board and a victory by either might have solidified a spot in the starting gate.  Owendale squashed those dreams with a powerful wide trip victory under Florent Geroux.  The son of Into Mischief broke through the graded ranks and crossed the wire at 1:44.14.  Trainer Brad Cox is not one to overlook and certainly knows how to win big races.  We could possibly see this guy in the Preakness however I would not be surprised to see Cox looking elsewhere.

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With his second-place finish, Anothertwistafate sits in 23rd on the leader board with 38 points (tied with Signalman). Sueno now has 32 points and sits in 24th on the Derby leaderboard.  A few horses would have to scratch or opt out of the race for these two to get in.

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Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Video: Arkansas Derby & Lexington Stakes

Check out my top win contenders for the Arkansas Derby & Lexington Stakes in my Today's Racing Digest video below!

Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: End of the Line for Derby Points Races

This is the final week for points races on the Road to Kentucky Derby 2019. Omaha Beach and Improbable are the two favorites in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, April 13, and Anothertwistafate and Sueno square off in the Lexington Stakes (G3) on the same day at Keeneland.   

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Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis for Saturday (4-13-19)


KEE 9 (G3 Lexington, 8.5f) #4 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (2-1) proved that he could handle dirt in a surging place finish in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24 (137 CPR, 155 Pace Rating, 149 Final Rating). I like his early-pressing versatility and Castellano should have options. He drilled a Sunland bullet for this April 4 and has the talent to make short work of this group. #3 Sueno (5-1) fired trifecta shots in all six starts including a trio of underneath finishes in Derby points races (2nd in G3 Sham, 2nd in G3 Southwest, 3rd in G2 LA Derby). He projects another decent tactical trip under Lanerie. #5 Harvey Wallbanger (7-2) and #10 Roiland (15-1) did not get much pace help in the Florida Derby (G1) and LA Derby (G2) in their last starts. I can see one or both hitting the board if the pace heats up. The Plays: #4 to win, Exacta 4-3, Trifecta Key 4/3-5-10 


OP 11 (G1 Arkansas Derby, 9f) #8 COUNTRY HOUSE (12-1) is slowly improving for Mott and this would be a great time to put it all together. Rosario might be a good fit for this one and there is pace to chase today. He was off slow and wide in the LA Derby (G2), and he flattened out in the lane after putting in a big run around the far turn (improved 106 FIRE). Plus, the speed did not come back that day, but it might in this spot. #3 Omaha Beach (2-1) has put in all together in his last pair and gamely beat Game Winner in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) March 16. He is firing bullets for this and could easily score again. #1 Improbable (8-5) adds blinkers and goes from the outside post in the Rebel Stakes (G2) to the rail in this longer event. He won all three starts last year from inner posts including a razor sharp score from the rail in the Los Al Futurity (G1). He drilled a SA bullet for this April 5. #11 Long Range Toddy (5-1) always finishes in the top three in these points races, He will have to work out a trip from the outside post and he upset Improbable in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) under today’s rider Jon Court March 16. #7 Galilean (10-1) removes blinkers after an okay 3rd in the 1st division of the Rebel Stakes (G2). He figures to stalk the pace under Prat. #5 Laughing Fox (20-1) was pinched at the start and never got involved vs. Omaha Beach last time. He fired a bullet in the local mud April 8 and deserves another chance in the stakes ranks. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/1-3, Exacta 1-3/8, Superfecta 8/1-3/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/8/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/1-3-11/8/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11/8


Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps  


Blue Grass Stakes (G2) Recap (4-6-19) - Winner: Vekoma ($4.80)


Vekoma did not disappoint as the favorite in his final Derby prep. He chased the pace from 2nd, took the lead, and rode the speed bias to an easy 3-1/2 length victory. He was good as a juvenile and has improved this year. He will have to improve again to compete for a top prize on the first Saturday in May. Win Win Win rallied to grab the place in the final strides and has also secured his spot in the Derby. Signalman stalked the pace and just missed the place. He finished in the top three in four of his five points races and is #18 on the Derby points list. Somelikeithotbrown battled on the pace and weakened late to finish 4th. He is currently #21 on the points list (30 points) and is on the outside looking in. Chess Chief, So Alive, Sir Winston, Admire, Moonster, Lucky Lee, Market King, Aquadini, Dream Maker, and Parsimony completed the order of finish. 

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Kentucky Derby 2019 Video Series Featuring Anothertwistafate & Sueno

My Kentucky Derby 2019 under the radar video series continues with the Lexington Stakes (G30 at Keeneland on April 13, 2019. In this video, I take a look at Anothertwistafate and Sueno. 

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Sueno capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Video by Jarrod Horak

You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.  

Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Analysis: Anothertwistafate Strong Win Threat in Lexington Stakes

Race 9: Gr. III Lexington Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/16th Mile Dirt, $200,000)
Available Points: 20-8-4-2
Weather: Cloudy with a high in the 60’s with low chance of precipitation.


This will be the final weekend of the Kentucky Derby 2019 prep races and the last hope for some of these runners trying to up their total in hopes of making it to the starting gate on May 4th.


Anothertwistafate sits in 23rd with 30 points and first or second place finish should guarantee his spot.  Sueno currently sits in 25th with 28 points and he’ll need a win here to qualify.  Last week, the connections of Master Fencer (JPN) stated they will be making the trip to Louisville so that did knock a couple horses down the leader board.  There usually are a couple deflections going into the Derby by way of sickness, injury or the trainers just not opting to run so a horse sitting around 21st – 24th may get lucky regardless if they don’t run this weekend.

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Without further ado, let’s look at the contenders:


2019 Lexington Contenders


1- Shang
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Steve Asmussen
10-1


2 - Hawaiian Noises
John Velazquez
Wesley Ward
10-1


3 - Sueno
Corey Lanerie
Keith Desormeaux
5-1


4 - Anothertwistafate
Javier Castellano
Blaine Wright
2-1


5 - Harvey Wallbanger
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Kenny McPeek
7-2


6 - Chase the Ghost
Miguel Mena
Dallas Stewart
30-1


7 - Knicks Go
Albin Jimenez
Ben Colebrook
15-1


8 - Owendale
Florent Geroux
Brad Cox
12-1


9 - Zenden
Tyler Gaffalione
Victor Barboza
6-1


10 - Roiland
James Graham
Tom Amoss
15-1


#1 – Shang: Has won four straight races ranging from 6F to 8.5F for trainer Steve Asmussen.  His last two wins came when he was sitting just off the pace so I imagine Irad will do the same here (no more than five back in the early stages).  Can’t knock the connections for trying here but with no points on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard one would assume this might be a prep for the Preakness.  Asmussen trained Shang’s dam Humble Janet who won four times from 17 starts, three coming at a mile and one at a mile and a sixteenth.  She also placed in two Gr. III races over a mile.  Shang is a son of Shanghai Bobby who won the Gr. I BC Juvenile back in 2012 so the distance should not be a problem. Possible exotic play.


#2 – Hawaiian Noises: Wesley Ward trainee has won three in a row with two coming over the synthetic surface (Turfway Park) and the other coming over the dirt back here in October.  Those were all sprints however and this will be  his first-time routing.  In his last start he won an ungraded stake on March 9th which was also his first race of 2019.  He could improve second off a layoff and dose own some nice works over the track as of late.  Hawaiian Noises is by Super Saver who won the Kentucky Derby in 2010 and his dam, Lastofthesummerwine only raced one and finished second in a sprint over the synthetic.  Seems like the artificial surface will be more to his liking so I’ll pass here.


#3 – Sueno: The Atreides colt has never missed the board in six starts and was last seen finishing third in the Gr. II Louisiana Derby on March 23rd.  His Brisnet speed figures have been steadily improving and he needs a win to solidify his spot in the Derby starting gate.  Last time out in the Gr. II Louisiana Derby he had a perfect trip sitting right behind the pace setter but ultimately could not keep up with By My Standards and Spinoff down the lane.  I see him being a bit further back than his usually running style as there are some fast horses in here, however he should be getting a nice trip down by or close to the rail.  Desormeaux obviously feels he’s Derby material or he would have not opted to run here.


#4 – Anothertwistafate: The 2-1 morning line favorite and deservingly so after his last two performances.  Two races back he took the El Camino Derby in gate to wire fashion over the synthetic surface at Golden going 9F.  The son of Scat Daddy then went down to Sunland Park where he finished a game second behind Cutting humor in the Gr. III Sunland Park Derby on March 24th.  If he runs his race, I feel he dominates this field.  Strong win contender.


#5 – Harvey Wallbanger: Disappointed last time out in the Gr. I Florida Derby where he did very little running.  The fractions were slow during the early stages, but he really had no excuse for such an effort.  Prior to that effort he never missed the exacta in five starts and does get a little class relief here.  The pace in here looks quick and I do think that should benefit him, so a rebound effort is not out of the question.  As of now, Harvey Wallbanger has 10 points on the Derby trail and even with a victory here on Saturday he still wouldn’t crack the top 20.  The only way he gets in is if he wins this race, and at least four or five horses opt out of the Derby.  Can’t discount him here and going back to 8.5F should be more suitable.


#6 – Chase the Ghost: Comes into this race with a 7-1-2-0 record with just under $50K in career earnings.  Dallas Stewart has been known to blow up an exacta or two, however I can’t see this horse beating this group.  In the Gr. II Risen Star, he did have some trouble down the stretch but he was not getting to the winners that day regardless.  I see Mena sitting off the pace and making a late run turning for home.  Will pass here.


#7 – Knicks Go: Has not returned to his two-year old form  and has two poor efforts in the Gr. II Sam F. Davis and the Gr. III Gotham.  The last time this horse won, it was over this very track (October).  This will be his third start off the layoff and Jimenez will have him up on the pace during the early stages.  I still feel this one’s best days are behind him however he if hit the board I would not be totally surprised.


#8 – Owendale: Was last seen finishing 8th in the Gr. II Risen Star back on February 16th.  From looking at his past performances I don’t think this guy wants to go much farther than a mile.  Two races back he won over a good surface when pressing the pace after he took off from post one in a six-horse field.  Florent Geroux will take the mount and he and Cox have been winning at a 34% clip over the last 60 days (47 mounts).  Could use underneath.


#9 – Zenden: This guy will likely be a pace factor and if I am the jock, I send him right to the front as there is a not much runway going into the first turn.  Last time out in the Gr. II Tampa Bay Derby, this guy set blistering fractions and held on to finish fourth behind Tacitus and Win Win Win, both of whom have came back to run huge in their following starts.  The son of Fed Biz will be making his third start off a layoff for trainer Victor Barboza and Tyler Gaffalione will take over the mount.  Could be maturing at the right time and I expect a solid effort in this spot.


#10 – Roiland: Another improving type for Tom Amoss but he just doesn’t seem to be a Derby horse in my eyes.  His last four starts have come in the graded stakes ranks with his best finish being a third in the Gr. II Risen Star.  Given his late running style a fast pace could play out to his benefit and it would not shock me for him to finish third or fourth in here.  I would imagine Graham takes him to the rail during the early stages trying to save ground and find his way through late down the lane.    


Top Four: 4 – 9 – 5 - 1


You can read all of our Derby blogs on our Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and our annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on our Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.   


About Josh:


Originally from Upstate New York,  Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".


Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga  Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.  


​​Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).

Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recap: By My Standards Wins Louisiana Derby

Fair Grounds Race Course
3/23/2019
​Race Round-Up: (R13) Gr. II Louisiana Derby (3yr M, 1-1/8 Mile Dirt, $1,000,000)
Track Condition: Fast
Final Time: 1:49.53

By My Standards punched his ticket to Kentucky Derby 2019 by besting a field of 11 at the Fair Grounds on Saturday.  The son of Goldencents now sits atop the leaderboard with 100 qualifying points and barring any setbacks will be one of the 20 starters come May 4th.

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The top four finishers of the race were By My Standards, Spinoff, Sueno, and Country House with each runner earning 100, 40, 20 and 10 points respectively.  This was a key race for the quartet as each may have enough qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby.  Spinoff sits in 8th place with 40 points, Country House at 11th with 30, and Sueno in 12th with 28.  At this point, there are 10 Kentucky Derby prep races left with three of them happening overseas.


Let’s look at the race round up for Saturday’s Gr. II Louisiana Derby:


#1 – By My Standards:  Has steadily improved in his four career starts and broke through the graded stakes ranks with a rail hugging victory on Saturday.  After a clean break, By My Standards sat in third, just off Sueno’s flank entering the first turn.  Moving into the backstretch, Saez moved towards the rail where he sat for most of the race until the stretch drive.   Down the lane, Saez shifted slightly off the fence to get by front runner Lemniscate, then moved back towards the rail where he finished about a length in front of second place finisher Spinoff.  The fractions of the race were run in (23.63), (47.68), (1:11.54), (1:36.84) and they finished up in 1:49.53.  By My Standards is by Goldencents out of a Muqtarib mare, A Jealous Women.  Goldencents was a two-time BC Mile winner but did compete in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness back in 2013.  He finished 17th and 5th in those races but later went on to be a force in races 8F or under.  By My Standards dam, A Jealous Women was a turf horse with most of her wins coming at 8F and shorter as well.  Even though he ran nicely on Saturday, I am suspect this horse wants to go 10F.


#2 – Spinoff: Was slightly bumped leaving the gate from post 10 but gathered himself nicely to end up in third after the first turn.  He was never further back than a couple lengths from the front runners and had a clean trip overall.  Entering the turn for home, Spinoff switched leads nicely and soon took over the lead from Sueno.  He later relinquished the lead to By My Standards who came under a strong right-handed whip from Gabriel Saez.  Given this was only his second start of 2019, coming up a bit short was reasonable.  Spinoff is the son of Hard Spun who ran in all three classic races back in 2007 finishing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th respectively.  Spinoff’s dam, Zaftig was a miler at heart but I do think this can get the 10F distance.


#3 – Sueno:  Kept his on-the-board streak alive with a respectable third place finish in which he finished about five lengths back of the top two.  Like Spinoff, this one had a clean trip and was in good position throughout but ultimately could not keep up with Spinoff or By My Standards down the stretch.  Sueno sat in second behind Lemniscate for most of the race until the leader began to retreat just before the turn for home.  He briefly had the lead but was quickly taken over by Spinoff and finished a distant third.  The fast start to Sueno’s career does not surprise me as both of his parents started off in strong fashion but neither raced past their three-year-old season.  I think this distance is about as far as he wants to go.


#4 – Country House:  After another slow start, Country House had to go three-wide entering the first turn and eventually settled in ninth entering the backstretch.  The Chestnut colt made a six-wide move entering the stretch and it looked like he was going to make some noise, but he flattened out to finish fourth, about six lengths off the winner.  He did improve from a visual standpoint as he was not weaving down the stretch like he did in the Risen Star, but he still must improve to compete with the top of this crop.  Country House is by Lookin At Lucky by a War Chant mare named Quake Lake.  Lookin At Lucky won several stakes throughout his career including the 2010 Preakness, Haskell and Indian Derby.  He finished his career with a fourth-place finish in the BC Classic.  Quake lake won twice in her career with both coming in 6F sprints over the synthetic surface.  He should be able to go longer, and I imagine he’ll continue to improve as the year goes on.


#5 – Mr. Money:  Had a solid start and ended up in fifth after the first turn.  Kept in the three-path down the backstretch, Mr. Money raced behind Spinoff and next to War of Will until making a five wide move entering the final turn.  Country House was right alongside him at the point and he essentially had no where to go from there.  He did show some fight to get into fifth as he just edged out Roiland.  Given he missed the LeComte with a sickness it will be interesting to see what Calhoun does from here as there is enough time for another prep should he feel the colt can improve from this start.


#6 – Roiland:  Was a little slow out of the gate but that was a given considering his past performances.  Most of the horses were off the rail entering the first turn so the fence was wide open leaving Roiland to settle in seventh.  He essentially followed By My Standards up the rail for most of the race and later flattened out down the lane, just getting nipped for fifth by Mr. Money.


#7 – Bankit: Took a weird step out of the gate and ended up in last entering the first turn.  He was about 10 lengths off the pace setters for much of the backstretch when he began to inch closer before the final turn.  At the top of the stretch, the group was compact and Oritz had no where to go but wide.  He passed a few horses down the lane but he ultimately looks like a sprinter in my eyes.


#8 – Hog Creek Hustle:  Slightly bumped Spinoff out of the gate but I don’t think it was very detrimental to either horse.  Since Spinoff scooted off towards the front, Hog Creek Hustle was able to make his way towards the rail and sat to the outside of Roiland entering the backstretch.  Country House joined him to his right and Hog Creek Hustle was up against it at that point.  Mena shifted the horse towards the fence down the lane but there was no where to go at that point, and he finished three-quarters of a length in front of War of Will.


#9 – War of Will:  The post time favorite had a troubled start as you can see his hind legs dip about three jumps after the break.  According to various sources, the son of War Front suffered a strained patellar ligament which was the likely cause of his dull performance.  He would regain his stride and eventually settled in sixth down the backstretch.  Racing between horses for the remainder of the contest, War of Will had little to give down the lane and retreated to finish in 9th out of the 11-horse field.  One never wants to see a setback on the Derby trail but there is six weeks until the big race.  Casse thinks he should be able to get him back into form, but I would not be surprised to see him skip the Derby.


#10 – Limonite:  Broke slow for Jose Ortiz and settled towards the rear entering the first turn.  On the backstretch, the son of Lemon Drop Kid raced in the two-path before going wide entering the stretch.  This one had little to give down the lane and ended up getting beaten by 11 plus lengths.  I would not be surprised to see Asmussen take one more shot with this guy as this was only his second start of the year.    

#11 – Lemniscate:  Had a sharp break and went on to set the pace during the early stages.  Sueno was close throughout and as they entered the turn for home, Lemniscate began to retreat and ended up last of the 11-horse field.  Would imagine the connections move him back to the grass after this effort.
​

About Josh:


Originally from Upstate New York,  Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".


Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga  Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.  


​​Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).