Kentucky Derby 2019 Video Recap + Preakness Preview: Country House, War of Will

Kentucky Derby 2019 Longshots Video Featuring Country House

Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Video: Arkansas Derby & Lexington Stakes

Check out my top win contenders for the Arkansas Derby & Lexington Stakes in my Today's Racing Digest video below!

Kentucky Derby 2019 Video Series: Arkansas Derby Runners Country House and Galilean

My Kentucky Derby 2019 under the radar video series continues with the Arkansas Derby (G1). In this video, I take a look at Country House, Galilean, and Laughing Fox.

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Country House capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Video by Jarrod Horak

You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring. 

Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recap: By My Standards Wins Louisiana Derby

Fair Grounds Race Course
3/23/2019
​Race Round-Up: (R13) Gr. II Louisiana Derby (3yr M, 1-1/8 Mile Dirt, $1,000,000)
Track Condition: Fast
Final Time: 1:49.53

By My Standards punched his ticket to Kentucky Derby 2019 by besting a field of 11 at the Fair Grounds on Saturday.  The son of Goldencents now sits atop the leaderboard with 100 qualifying points and barring any setbacks will be one of the 20 starters come May 4th.

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! By My Standards capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

The top four finishers of the race were By My Standards, Spinoff, Sueno, and Country House with each runner earning 100, 40, 20 and 10 points respectively.  This was a key race for the quartet as each may have enough qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby.  Spinoff sits in 8th place with 40 points, Country House at 11th with 30, and Sueno in 12th with 28.  At this point, there are 10 Kentucky Derby prep races left with three of them happening overseas.


Let’s look at the race round up for Saturday’s Gr. II Louisiana Derby:


#1 – By My Standards:  Has steadily improved in his four career starts and broke through the graded stakes ranks with a rail hugging victory on Saturday.  After a clean break, By My Standards sat in third, just off Sueno’s flank entering the first turn.  Moving into the backstretch, Saez moved towards the rail where he sat for most of the race until the stretch drive.   Down the lane, Saez shifted slightly off the fence to get by front runner Lemniscate, then moved back towards the rail where he finished about a length in front of second place finisher Spinoff.  The fractions of the race were run in (23.63), (47.68), (1:11.54), (1:36.84) and they finished up in 1:49.53.  By My Standards is by Goldencents out of a Muqtarib mare, A Jealous Women.  Goldencents was a two-time BC Mile winner but did compete in the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness back in 2013.  He finished 17th and 5th in those races but later went on to be a force in races 8F or under.  By My Standards dam, A Jealous Women was a turf horse with most of her wins coming at 8F and shorter as well.  Even though he ran nicely on Saturday, I am suspect this horse wants to go 10F.


#2 – Spinoff: Was slightly bumped leaving the gate from post 10 but gathered himself nicely to end up in third after the first turn.  He was never further back than a couple lengths from the front runners and had a clean trip overall.  Entering the turn for home, Spinoff switched leads nicely and soon took over the lead from Sueno.  He later relinquished the lead to By My Standards who came under a strong right-handed whip from Gabriel Saez.  Given this was only his second start of 2019, coming up a bit short was reasonable.  Spinoff is the son of Hard Spun who ran in all three classic races back in 2007 finishing 2nd, 3rd, and 4th respectively.  Spinoff’s dam, Zaftig was a miler at heart but I do think this can get the 10F distance.


#3 – Sueno:  Kept his on-the-board streak alive with a respectable third place finish in which he finished about five lengths back of the top two.  Like Spinoff, this one had a clean trip and was in good position throughout but ultimately could not keep up with Spinoff or By My Standards down the stretch.  Sueno sat in second behind Lemniscate for most of the race until the leader began to retreat just before the turn for home.  He briefly had the lead but was quickly taken over by Spinoff and finished a distant third.  The fast start to Sueno’s career does not surprise me as both of his parents started off in strong fashion but neither raced past their three-year-old season.  I think this distance is about as far as he wants to go.


#4 – Country House:  After another slow start, Country House had to go three-wide entering the first turn and eventually settled in ninth entering the backstretch.  The Chestnut colt made a six-wide move entering the stretch and it looked like he was going to make some noise, but he flattened out to finish fourth, about six lengths off the winner.  He did improve from a visual standpoint as he was not weaving down the stretch like he did in the Risen Star, but he still must improve to compete with the top of this crop.  Country House is by Lookin At Lucky by a War Chant mare named Quake Lake.  Lookin At Lucky won several stakes throughout his career including the 2010 Preakness, Haskell and Indian Derby.  He finished his career with a fourth-place finish in the BC Classic.  Quake lake won twice in her career with both coming in 6F sprints over the synthetic surface.  He should be able to go longer, and I imagine he’ll continue to improve as the year goes on.


#5 – Mr. Money:  Had a solid start and ended up in fifth after the first turn.  Kept in the three-path down the backstretch, Mr. Money raced behind Spinoff and next to War of Will until making a five wide move entering the final turn.  Country House was right alongside him at the point and he essentially had no where to go from there.  He did show some fight to get into fifth as he just edged out Roiland.  Given he missed the LeComte with a sickness it will be interesting to see what Calhoun does from here as there is enough time for another prep should he feel the colt can improve from this start.


#6 – Roiland:  Was a little slow out of the gate but that was a given considering his past performances.  Most of the horses were off the rail entering the first turn so the fence was wide open leaving Roiland to settle in seventh.  He essentially followed By My Standards up the rail for most of the race and later flattened out down the lane, just getting nipped for fifth by Mr. Money.


#7 – Bankit: Took a weird step out of the gate and ended up in last entering the first turn.  He was about 10 lengths off the pace setters for much of the backstretch when he began to inch closer before the final turn.  At the top of the stretch, the group was compact and Oritz had no where to go but wide.  He passed a few horses down the lane but he ultimately looks like a sprinter in my eyes.


#8 – Hog Creek Hustle:  Slightly bumped Spinoff out of the gate but I don’t think it was very detrimental to either horse.  Since Spinoff scooted off towards the front, Hog Creek Hustle was able to make his way towards the rail and sat to the outside of Roiland entering the backstretch.  Country House joined him to his right and Hog Creek Hustle was up against it at that point.  Mena shifted the horse towards the fence down the lane but there was no where to go at that point, and he finished three-quarters of a length in front of War of Will.


#9 – War of Will:  The post time favorite had a troubled start as you can see his hind legs dip about three jumps after the break.  According to various sources, the son of War Front suffered a strained patellar ligament which was the likely cause of his dull performance.  He would regain his stride and eventually settled in sixth down the backstretch.  Racing between horses for the remainder of the contest, War of Will had little to give down the lane and retreated to finish in 9th out of the 11-horse field.  One never wants to see a setback on the Derby trail but there is six weeks until the big race.  Casse thinks he should be able to get him back into form, but I would not be surprised to see him skip the Derby.


#10 – Limonite:  Broke slow for Jose Ortiz and settled towards the rear entering the first turn.  On the backstretch, the son of Lemon Drop Kid raced in the two-path before going wide entering the stretch.  This one had little to give down the lane and ended up getting beaten by 11 plus lengths.  I would not be surprised to see Asmussen take one more shot with this guy as this was only his second start of the year.    

#11 – Lemniscate:  Had a sharp break and went on to set the pace during the early stages.  Sueno was close throughout and as they entered the turn for home, Lemniscate began to retreat and ended up last of the 11-horse field.  Would imagine the connections move him back to the grass after this effort.
​

About Josh:


Originally from Upstate New York,  Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".


Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga  Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.  


​​Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).

Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Video: Louisiana Derby Featuring War of Will

Check out my Louisiana Derby 2019 video for Today's Racing Digest.

Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Preview: War Of Will Takes on 10 in LA Derby

​Fair Ground Race Course
3/23/2019
Race 13: Gr. II Louisiana Derby (3yr M, 1-1/8 Mile Dirt, $1,000,000)
Available Points: 100-40-20-10


Saturday’s Gr. II Louisiana Derby will be the last stop on the Kentucky Derby 2019 trail for the Fair Grounds preps.  Six of the top seven finishers will come back from the Gr. II Risen Star (2/16/19) to try and accumulate enough points to make the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.  A win by any of these would essentially stamp their ticket however they will have to upset the likely favorite in War of Will who will be trying to sweep the Fair Grounds series for the first time since International Star did so in 2015.


Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! War of Will capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.


Let’s look at the field for Saturday’s race:


2019 Louisiana Derby Contenders


1 - Roiland
James Graham
Thomas Amoss


2- Lemniscate
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Kenny McPeek


3 - Limonite
Jose Ortiz
Steve Asmussen


4 - SuenoCorey Lanerie
Keith Desormeaux


5 - By My Standards
Gabriel Saez
Bret Calhoun


6 - War of Will
Tyler Gaffalione
Mark Casse


7 - Mr. Money
Adam Beschizza
Bret Calhoun


8 - Country House
Luis Saez
William Mott


9 - Bankit
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Steve Asmussen


10 - Spinoff
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher


11- Hog Creek Hustle
Miguel Mena
Vickie Foley


#1 – Roiland:  Will be making his third start of 2019 for trainer Tom Amoss.  Last time out in the Gr. II Risen Star, the son of Successful Appeal had slow start from post two by rallied to finish third behind War of Will and Country House.  It should be noted that the second, third, fourth, and fifth place finishers in the Risen Star were all posted in the back of the pack in the early stages of the race and the fractions were not very impressive. This one will need at least another top three finish to have a shot at making the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.


#2 – Lemniscate:  The son of Exchange Rate comes into this race with a 3-1-1-0 record with his lone win coming over the turf in his last start (March 3rd) at Gulfstream Park.  This one should be a pace player here as he’s been in his last two starts so I expect Hernandez to hustle him out of the gate.  His first two starts came sprinting over the dirt so he should take to the surface, but we’ll see how he likes the 9F distance.  McPeek does have a positive ROI with runners switching surfaces ($2.81) in his last 52 attempts.


#3 – Limonite:  One of two Steve Asmussen trainees in here and this one will be making his second start in 2019.  Last time out, the son of Lemon Drop Kid sat in the rear of the pack of the Risen Star before making his move up the rail entering the turn for home.  He did encounter some traffic down the stretch but rallied nicely to finish fifth.  Limonte has mostly been sitting mid to late pack in the early stages of his races however he did show some speed in his third career start in which he finished second by a neck (CD – 10/28/18).  Jose Ortiz will take the mount and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an improvement here.  Should be one to include in the exotics.


#4 – Sueno:  Comes into this race with a 5-2-2-1 record with just over $190K in career earnings.  The Keith Desormeaux trainee started his career in the maiden claiming ranks and has steadily shown improvement in each of his five starts.  Last time out in the Gr. III Southwest Stakes back at Oaklawn Park, he raced early to mid-pack for most of the race before rallying to finish a close second behind longshot winner Super Steed.  It looked like Sueno was going to go inside Super Seed down the lane but as the winner moved towards the rail, Lanerie moved the horse to the outside of the eventual winner which may have been the difference maker.  The horse did gallop out nicely so and I imagine Lanerie will try to set a similar trip in this race. Might be one to include in the exotics.


#5 – By My Standards:  Another horse who has yet to miss the board in four career starts, the son of Goldencents comes into this race with a 4-1-2-1 record.  Last time out, By My Standards sat close to the pace before going away to win by four to break his maiden back here in February 16th.  Saez has been aboard for all four starts and will likely have him within five lengths of the pace setters in the early stages.


#6 – War of Will:  Not much to say about this one that hasn’t been said already.  The son of War Front is three for three since switching to dirt and has won his last two starts in impressive fashion.  This will be his third start of 2019 and I expect another solid performance out of him on Saturday.  In a year which has shown there’s no clear-cut favorite on this year Derby trail, he has been the most consistent although I am suspect of the competition he’s been facing.  There will be a few new faces in here but if he wins on Saturday, he’ll likely be on of the top three betting choices come May 4th.


#7 – Mr. Money:  Was dealing with a sickness which knocked him out of the LeComte Stakes back in late January however he’s had three nice works since his seventh-place finish in the Gr. II Risen Star.  The son of Goldencents finished fourth in the Gr. I BC Juvenile to close out his 2018 campaign but he’ll need to take a big step forward to show he’s ready to face the big boys come May.


#8 – Country House:  The striking Chestnut son of Lookin At Lucky finished a good second behind War of Will back here on February 16th in which he was a little green down the lane.  Luis Saez will be in the saddle once again for trainer Bill Mott and if he can take a step forward from his Risen Star performance, I think he’ll be right there at the finish.  This one is a late runner so look for him to be sitting near the back of the back in the early stages come Saturday.


#9 – Bankit: Came out of the gate well in his last start ( Gr. III Southwest Stakes) but settled towards the back of the pack and was pushed super wide entering the first turn.  He later moved down towards the rail and eventually had to go wide entering the stretch.  He did make up some ground to finish fifth, but he ultimately looks like a sprinter in my eyes.  He’ll pick up the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. but I will look elsewhere in this race.


#10 – Spinoff: The son of Hard Spun looks like one of the possible horses that could take on War of Will and Country House in this spot for Todd Pletcher.  Last time out, the Chestnut colt began his 2019 campaign with a bang as he won an OC $75K race at Tampa by 11 lengths (Feb. 22nd).  Pletcher usually has at least a couple good colts on the Derby trail and this one could be his main threat if he can manage to finish in the exacta.  John Velazquez will come over for the ride and he’ll likely have him up towards the pace in the early stages.


#11 – Hog Creek Hustle:  Comes into this race with a 6-2-1-1 record with both wins coming in sprints.  This will be his third start of 2019 and he ultimately seems like a miler or sprinter at this point in his career.  The son of Overanalyze usually races towards the back of the pack in the early stages and taking off from the outside post, he’ll have his work cut out for him.  Will pass on him in this spot.


Top Four: 8 – 6 – 3 - 4


Article by Josh Chicorelli 


About Josh:


Originally from Upstate New York,  Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".


Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga  Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.  


​​Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).

Kentucky Derby 2019 Report: Trainer Bill Mott Loaded With Derby Trail Prospects

All eyes are on five-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert and his likely two-year-old champion Game Winner, plus Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) hero Improbable, and a barn full of lightly raced promising colts. Triple Crown Bob is not the only conditioner with multiple Kentucky Derby 2019 talent. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has three colts with unlimited Derby potential beginning with Country House. 

Country House (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant) showed marked improvement in a runner-up finish in his second career start at Aqueduct on Dec. 1. He made his first sophomore start at Gulfstream Park on Jan. 17 and he broke slow and rallied from last place to win going away in a visually impressive effort at a mile and a sixteenth. He seems to have plenty of stamina and is definitely worth following.

Mucho (Blame - Extent, by Pulpit) was part of my original "exceptional eleven" Derby contenders list when I started my blog last September. He followed up a clear place finish in his Saratoga debut with a romping dirt sprint victory at that same venue second time out. He ended his juvenile campaign with a clear place finish behind Mind Control in the Hopeful (G1). He is spending the winter in Florida and returned to the work tab on Jan. 6.

Tacitcus (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence) raced twice in 2018 including a one mile maiden win at Aqueduct in November. He owns a very classy pedigree and I put him on my Derby list shortly after his aforementioned maiden win  He also got back to work at Payson Park Training Center in Florida on Jan. 6.

You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.

Article by Jarrod Horak

Mucho photo courtesy of Josh Chicorelli