Fair Ground Race Course
3/23/2019
Race 13: Gr. II Louisiana Derby (3yr M, 1-1/8 Mile Dirt, $1,000,000)
Available Points: 100-40-20-10
Saturday’s Gr. II Louisiana Derby will be the last stop on the Kentucky Derby 2019 trail for the Fair Grounds preps. Six of the top seven finishers will come back from the Gr. II Risen Star (2/16/19) to try and accumulate enough points to make the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. A win by any of these would essentially stamp their ticket however they will have to upset the likely favorite in War of Will who will be trying to sweep the Fair Grounds series for the first time since International Star did so in 2015.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! War of Will capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Let’s look at the field for Saturday’s race:
2019 Louisiana Derby Contenders
1 - Roiland
James Graham
Thomas Amoss
2- Lemniscate
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Kenny McPeek
3 - Limonite
Jose Ortiz
Steve Asmussen
4 - SuenoCorey Lanerie
Keith Desormeaux
5 - By My Standards
Gabriel Saez
Bret Calhoun
6 - War of Will
Tyler Gaffalione
Mark Casse
7 - Mr. Money
Adam Beschizza
Bret Calhoun
8 - Country House
Luis Saez
William Mott
9 - Bankit
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Steve Asmussen
10 - Spinoff
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
11- Hog Creek Hustle
Miguel Mena
Vickie Foley
#1 – Roiland: Will be making his third start of 2019 for trainer Tom Amoss. Last time out in the Gr. II Risen Star, the son of Successful Appeal had slow start from post two by rallied to finish third behind War of Will and Country House. It should be noted that the second, third, fourth, and fifth place finishers in the Risen Star were all posted in the back of the pack in the early stages of the race and the fractions were not very impressive. This one will need at least another top three finish to have a shot at making the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.
#2 – Lemniscate: The son of Exchange Rate comes into this race with a 3-1-1-0 record with his lone win coming over the turf in his last start (March 3rd) at Gulfstream Park. This one should be a pace player here as he’s been in his last two starts so I expect Hernandez to hustle him out of the gate. His first two starts came sprinting over the dirt so he should take to the surface, but we’ll see how he likes the 9F distance. McPeek does have a positive ROI with runners switching surfaces ($2.81) in his last 52 attempts.
#3 – Limonite: One of two Steve Asmussen trainees in here and this one will be making his second start in 2019. Last time out, the son of Lemon Drop Kid sat in the rear of the pack of the Risen Star before making his move up the rail entering the turn for home. He did encounter some traffic down the stretch but rallied nicely to finish fifth. Limonte has mostly been sitting mid to late pack in the early stages of his races however he did show some speed in his third career start in which he finished second by a neck (CD – 10/28/18). Jose Ortiz will take the mount and I wouldn’t be surprised to see an improvement here. Should be one to include in the exotics.
#4 – Sueno: Comes into this race with a 5-2-2-1 record with just over $190K in career earnings. The Keith Desormeaux trainee started his career in the maiden claiming ranks and has steadily shown improvement in each of his five starts. Last time out in the Gr. III Southwest Stakes back at Oaklawn Park, he raced early to mid-pack for most of the race before rallying to finish a close second behind longshot winner Super Steed. It looked like Sueno was going to go inside Super Seed down the lane but as the winner moved towards the rail, Lanerie moved the horse to the outside of the eventual winner which may have been the difference maker. The horse did gallop out nicely so and I imagine Lanerie will try to set a similar trip in this race. Might be one to include in the exotics.
#5 – By My Standards: Another horse who has yet to miss the board in four career starts, the son of Goldencents comes into this race with a 4-1-2-1 record. Last time out, By My Standards sat close to the pace before going away to win by four to break his maiden back here in February 16th. Saez has been aboard for all four starts and will likely have him within five lengths of the pace setters in the early stages.
#6 – War of Will: Not much to say about this one that hasn’t been said already. The son of War Front is three for three since switching to dirt and has won his last two starts in impressive fashion. This will be his third start of 2019 and I expect another solid performance out of him on Saturday. In a year which has shown there’s no clear-cut favorite on this year Derby trail, he has been the most consistent although I am suspect of the competition he’s been facing. There will be a few new faces in here but if he wins on Saturday, he’ll likely be on of the top three betting choices come May 4th.
#7 – Mr. Money: Was dealing with a sickness which knocked him out of the LeComte Stakes back in late January however he’s had three nice works since his seventh-place finish in the Gr. II Risen Star. The son of Goldencents finished fourth in the Gr. I BC Juvenile to close out his 2018 campaign but he’ll need to take a big step forward to show he’s ready to face the big boys come May.
#8 – Country House: The striking Chestnut son of Lookin At Lucky finished a good second behind War of Will back here on February 16th in which he was a little green down the lane. Luis Saez will be in the saddle once again for trainer Bill Mott and if he can take a step forward from his Risen Star performance, I think he’ll be right there at the finish. This one is a late runner so look for him to be sitting near the back of the back in the early stages come Saturday.
#9 – Bankit: Came out of the gate well in his last start ( Gr. III Southwest Stakes) but settled towards the back of the pack and was pushed super wide entering the first turn. He later moved down towards the rail and eventually had to go wide entering the stretch. He did make up some ground to finish fifth, but he ultimately looks like a sprinter in my eyes. He’ll pick up the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. but I will look elsewhere in this race.
#10 – Spinoff: The son of Hard Spun looks like one of the possible horses that could take on War of Will and Country House in this spot for Todd Pletcher. Last time out, the Chestnut colt began his 2019 campaign with a bang as he won an OC $75K race at Tampa by 11 lengths (Feb. 22nd). Pletcher usually has at least a couple good colts on the Derby trail and this one could be his main threat if he can manage to finish in the exacta. John Velazquez will come over for the ride and he’ll likely have him up towards the pace in the early stages.
#11 – Hog Creek Hustle: Comes into this race with a 6-2-1-1 record with both wins coming in sprints. This will be his third start of 2019 and he ultimately seems like a miler or sprinter at this point in his career. The son of Overanalyze usually races towards the back of the pack in the early stages and taking off from the outside post, he’ll have his work cut out for him. Will pass on him in this spot.
Top Four: 8 – 6 – 3 - 4
Article by Josh Chicorelli
About Josh:
Originally from Upstate New York, Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".
Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.
Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).
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