Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recap: Long Range Toddy Wins Rebel Stakes

Kentucky Derby 2019 contender Long Range Toddy ran down heavy favorite Improbable to win the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, March 16. 





Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Long Range Toddy capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest. 


Long Range Toddy has been a gem of consistency for trainer Steve Asmussen. After finishing 4th in his dirt sprint bow at Remington Park, he rattled off three straight wins at that venue including the Springboard Mile (Kentucky Derby points race) to end his juvenile campaign. 


He has now run three times in 2019 at Oaklawn Park with a neck defeat in the Smarty Jones, a solid 3rd from post 10 in the Southwest (G3), and a neck victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2). He has accumulated 53 Kentucky Derby 2019 points, and that should be more than enough to secure a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. 


Rebel Stakes (Division 1) Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19)


1st - Long Range Toddy - His tactical speed and inner post almost assured him a smooth trip, and his fitness edge allowed him to run down Improbable in deep stretch. This was a solid effort from a very consistent performer. The final time was 1:42.49. 


2nd - Improbable - Did everything but win in a race he was forced to compete in after the cancellation of the San Felipe Stakes on March 9. He raced wide throughout from the outside post under Drayden Van Dyke, and he was a bit unlucky to lose after pulling clear by a length in the stretch. He is expected to return to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby on April 13, and he should be much fitter for that event. 


3rd - Galilean - Did not have a great start under Flavien Prat and he had to hustle a bit early because of that mistake. Even a minor error can make all the difference at this level, and he battled on the pace throughout and weakened in late stretch. Not a bad effort in his first Derby points race but he needed to show a bit more. 


4th - Extra Hope - Made an early move and went after the leaders under Mike Smith. Like Galilean, he hung in there until deep stretch before weakening late. This was not his first points race and he has just not developed enough at this stage. 


5th - Easy Shot - Raced evenly throughout and was more than five lengths behind Extra Hope at the finish. 


6th - Ninth Street - Was last through the first six furlongs and never made an impact. 


7th - Classy John - Dueled on the lead through the opening six furlongs and definitely had a big impact on the pace. He was ultimately no match for the classier speed horses and retreated to last. 


Article by Jarrod Horak


You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.    

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