Improbable went 3-for-3 as a juvenile including a sharp victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). Two-year-old champion Game Winner went 4-for-4 in 2018 and capped off his outstanding juvenile campaign with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
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Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
OP 8 (G2 Rebel, 8.5f) #8 GALILEAN (3-1) deserves a shot in a Derby points race after dusting CA-bred stakes foes in his last pair (147, 146 Final Ratings). He will have to run a tad faster vs. better foes but the $600k son of Uncle Mo might be up to the challenge. He should be part of the pace and Prat is 12-for-27 with Hollendorfer. #9 Improbable (3-5) should win this if he is ready to go in his first start of the year (155 Final Rating in Los Al Futurity). Baffert usually dominates these Derby preps at Oaklawn and a win would be no surprise. He did have to alter his schedule after the San Felipe was canceled last week. He is just getting warmed up at 8.5f. #1 Extra Hope (6-1) might have been runner-up in the Los Al Futurity (G1) but Savagery blew the turn and forced him out, and he ended up 3rd behind Improbable and Mucho Gusto. He returned with a big optional claiming route win SA Jan 31 and looks ready to rejoin the stakes ranks. A ground saving stalking trip is expected and Mike Smith is 4-for-9 with Richard Mandella. In his last three dirt routes, he earned 129, 131, 138 Final Ratings, and will need to run a bit faster to win this. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/1-9, Exacta 1-9/8, Trifecta 1-8/1-8-9/1-8-9
OP 10 (G2 Rebel, 8.5f) #2 LAUGHING FOX (10-1) stretched out and won back-to-back local races on Jan 25 and Feb 18 (improved 98 FIRE, 130 CPR, 141 Final Rating). He can stalk or close for Asmussen and can compete here if he moves forward again in his third race after a layoff. His sire Union Rags was one of my favorites and my Derby & Belmont Stakes top choice. #5 Game Winner (4-5) went 4-for-4 last year (3 grade one wins - 146, 144, 140 Final Ratings) and Joel Rosario is 3-for-3 aboard the 2-year-old champ. The versatile colt is fresh and should be forwardly placed in his sophomore bow. Just like his stablemate Improbable, he had to alter his schedule after the San Felipe was canceled last week. #6 Omaha Beach (7-2) got over the hump in a romping maiden win on a wet track Feb. 2 (career best 99 FIRE + 138 Final Rating), and the light bulb has seemingly turned on. He fired a big Los Al bullet for this March 9 and should be forwardly placed under his new rider Mike Smith. #8 Gunmetal Gray (10-1) is the best finisher in the field and will probably finish somewhere in the top three. He finished 1-2 in three of his four points races around two turns and today’s rider Flavien Prat guided him to a place finish in the American Pharoah (G1) last year. He earned 129 & 134 Final Ratings in his last pair. The Plays: #2 to win, Exacta 2/5-6-8, Exacta 5-6-8/2, Trifecta 2-5-6/2-5-6/8
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Gotham Stakes (G3) Recap from Aqueduct (3-9-19) - Winner: Haikal
The fractions were 22.36, 44.02, and 1:09.23, and Haikal took full advantage of the pace collapse. He sure looks like a late running sprinter and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. Mind Control rallied for the place and also benefitted from fast fractions. He is a decent sort up to one mile but will probably struggle in longer races. Instagrand chased the pace in his first start since August 2018 and did well to land the show, but does not seem to be a Kentucky Derby horse at this stage. He should improve in his next start but he has never run over a route of ground and his stamina is a major question mark at this stage. Much Better tried to run them off their feet but the California shipper could not maintain his lead in the stretch and was edged for the show. Family Biz, Tikhvin Flew, Knicks Go, and Not That Brady trailed.
Tampa Bay Derby (G2) Recap from Tampa Bay Downs (3-9-19) - Winner: Tacitus
Yet another Derby points race with a fast pace (22.79, 45.85, 1:09.57, and Tacitus made his 3-year-old bow a winning one. This was not just his first start in four months, but this was his first try against winners, and the Bill Mott trainee sat in midpack and rolled home by a bit more than a length under Jose Ortiz. He owns a strong pedigree and should continue to show more. Outshine stalked the pace and was clearly second best for Todd Pletcher. He ran a quality race in his first attempt over a route of ground. Beaten favorite Win Win Win rallied wide to land the show and also ran well in his first start around two turns, while the top two finishers enjoyed better trips. Zenden set the pace and finished 4th, and was followed by Sir Winston, Dunph, Admire, Well Defined, The Right Path, Dream Maker, and Lord Dragon.
Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) Recap from Turfway Park (3-9-19) - Winner: Somelikeithotbrown
Somelikeithotbrown was aggressively handled by Tyler Gaffalione and was never seriously threatened in an easy 3-1/4 length front running victory as the strong favorite. He will get a chance to prove that he can handle conventional dirt in his final Derby prep. He is good on all-weather and turf, and I think turf will be his future. El Camino Real Derby hero Anothertwistafate is the more interesting all-weather/dirt Derby hopeful. Dynamic Racer chased the pace and tried hard throughout but was never catching the winner. Moonster rallied for the show and Five Star General faded to 4th. Dabo, Speed App, Counter Offer, Skywire, Curlin Gray, Twelfthofneverland, and Baytown Jimbo completed the order of finish.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Latest Workout: 5f in 59.80 (12/25) at Los Alamitos on March 10.
Comments: It has been a long time since we have seen Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion, and the wait is finally over. He was supposed to return in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 9, but that race was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He has shipped to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 16, and he is the 4-5 morning line favorite.
Derby Points (30)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Latest Workout: 5f in 59.20 (6/25) at Los Alamitos on March 10.
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s unbeaten colt was supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe and has also shipped to Oaklawn Park for the Rebel (first division). He got better as distances increased in a trio of 2018 starts. In his final start as a 2-year-old, he was the strong favorite in the Lost Alamitos Futurity (G1) on Dec. 8, and he stalked the pace and won for fun from the inside post at a mile and a sixteenth. He really kicked it in high gear in late stretch in that race and seems to want more ground. He is the strong 3-5 morning line favorite and will break from the outside post at Oaklawn Park on March 16.
Derby Points (10)
(3) CODE OF HONOR (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am not sure how effective he will be beyond a mile and a sixteenth but he is getting good at the right time and will get a chance to show his stamina in his final Derby prep at a mile and an eighth.
Derby Points (54)
(4) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Latest Workout: 4f in 47.60 (3/31) at Fair Grounds on March 15.
Comments: He had two of the better looking points race victories this year in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks and months. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He goes for a sweep of the Fair Grounds derby points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 23.
Derby Points (60)
(5) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 1:02.40 (1/5) at Payson Park on March 10.
Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still green. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together. He will meet War of Will again in the Louisiana Derby, and he can turn the tables on that rival if he runs a more professional race.
Derby Points (20)
(6) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Comments: Returns to the list for the second time after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs.
Derby Points (50)
(7) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 4f in 50.20 (12/26) at Payson Park on March 15.
Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano.
Derby Points (5)
(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did enough to remain on my list. He ran well enough to earn one final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early.
Derby Points (10)
(9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.00 (4/67) at Golden Gate Fields on March 10.
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24.
Derby Points (10)
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.76 (7/18) at Palm Beach Downs on March 15.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (10 points)
(11) GUNMETAL GRAY (Exchange Rate - Classofsixtythree, by Include)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (West Point Thoroughbreds and Jerry Hollendorfer)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:12.60 (7/10) at Los Alamitos on March 9.
Comments: Has competed in four points races over a route of ground with a win in the Sham (G3) and runner-up finishes in the American Pharoah (G1) and Robert Lewis (G3). I thought that his Robert Lewis runner-up finish was his best race to date. He proved that he could handle a wet track that day and showed nice late interest over a speed favoring surface. I still think that he is a cut below the best at this stage but he does have some stamina and a decent late kick. He was slated to go in the San Felipe but missing that race should not hurt him too much. He has already raced six times overall and twice this year. Look for him late in the second division of the Rebel Stakes and he has a very good shot to hit the board.
Derby Points (18)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Roadster, (14) Spinoff, (15) Extra Hope, (16) Haikal, (17) Mucho Gusto, (18) Signalman, (19) Tax, (20) Instagrand
Kentucky Derby 2019 blog by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
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