Saturday, March 2, 2019

Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis: Fountain of Youth Stakes

Gulfstream Park
3/2/2019
Race 13: Gr. II Fountain of Youth Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/16 Mile Dirt, $400,000)
Available Points: 50-20-10-5

Saturday’s $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes is the second of the three major Kentucky Derby 2019 prep races held at the Gulfstream Park.  The winner of this event will likely have a secured spot in the starting gate come the first Saturday in May with the top four finishers earning 50-20-10-5 points.  This race usually serves as a prep for the Gr. I Florida Derby which will take place here on March 30th.  Back in 2013, Orb won this race and then went on to win the Kentucky Derby.  This field of 11 looks pretty good and I envision this will be a key prep race moving forward on the Derby trail.




Without further ado, let’s look at the contenders:


2019 Fountain of Youth Stakes Contenders


1 - Code of Honor
John Velazquez
Shug McGaughey
6-1


2 - Epic Dreamer
Tyler Gaffalione
Kelly Breen
20-1


3 - Gladiator King
Jorge Solorzano
Jamie Mejia
50-1


4 - Bourbon War
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Mark Hennig
10-1


5 - Vekoma
Manny Franco
George Weaver
7-2


6 - Signalman
Brain Hernandez Jr.
Kenny McPeek
9-2


7 - Hidden Scroll
Joel Rosario
Bill Mott
9-5


8 - Global Campaign
Luis Saez
Stanley Hough
10-1


Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Global Campaign capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

9 - Everfast
Chris Landeros
Dale Romans
20-1


10 - Frosted Grace
Jonathan Gonzales
Kathy Rivto
30-1


11 - Union’s Destiny
Leonel Reyes
Juan Avila
30-1


#1 – Code of Honor: Made his first start of 2019 and finished fourth in a field of six in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes.  The son of Nobel Mission has had seven works since that race and should be more fit here.  In the Mucho Macho Man he had a poor start and was last for the first quarter mile but then rallied to be fourth within a few lengths of the front runners.  His trip was by no means clean as he was between horses much throughout.  Half way down the stretch you can see the horse become less interested and Johnny V wrapped him up to hold fourth as he was beaten by seven plus lengths.  I envision Velazquez will try to push him out of the gate as he is taking off from the one hole and he’ll likely settle in a good spot down on the rail.


#2 – Epic Dreamer: The front running son of Orb finished fourth in his 2019 debut in the Gr. II Holy Bull Stakes.  Last time out, he set the pace only to fall to fourth by a little more than two lengths.  Breen has only saddled one winner this meet at Gulfstream, but he does pick up the services of Tyler Gaffalione.  He won at this distance to break his maiden back at Belmont last October so the distance should be no problem, however he’ll need to improve again this bunch.


#3 – Gladiator King: Ran in the Texas Glitter Stakes on turf back here on February 23rd so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him scratch here.  If he does run, he’ll be a pace player (along with Epic Dreamer) however I do think this one is more of a turf horse.  The son of Curlin is 10-3-1-1 in his career with two of those wins coming in turf sprints and the other coming over the slop in a 6F sprint.  Will look elsewhere here.


#4 – Bourbon War: Broke his maiden in his first start in an off the turf race at Aqueduct back in November.  Since then, the son of Tapit finished fourth in the Gr. II Remsen to close out 2018 but came back to win impressively here on January 18th.  After the break, this one settled in third to last going around the first turn and was sitting about two to three-wide off the rail before making a move between horses on the backstretch.  Entering the final turn, you could see Irad had a loaded horse underneath him and kept pushing through the pack.  It took him bit second to change leads but when he did it was over from there.  He ended up winning by a little more than two lengths and that race seemed like a confidence booster to me.


#5 – Vekoma: Is two for two thus far for trainer George Weaver and he’ll be making his 2019 debut on Saturday.  Last time out in the Gr. III Nashua Stakes, he sat third for most of the race behind pace setter Factor It In, and Call Paul.  They were moving quick through early fractions of 22.53, and 45.29 until Vekoma made his move going into the final turn.  The son of Candy Ride was a little green down the lane and it did take him a bit to switch to his lead leg, but he was able to hold off Network Effect by almost two lengths.  Weaver has had this one in training since early January and he will be getting lasix for the first time.


#6 – Signalman: This one comes into this race as one of two graded stakes winners of the bunch and will be making his first start in 2019.  Entering this race, he sports a 5-2-2-1 record with three of those races coming against graded stakes competition in routing fashion.  The son of General Quarters has worked five times since the end of January, but I feel he’ll need a race to sharpen the screws.  He does have a versatile running style so it will be interesting to see where Hernandez has him in the early stages.


#7 – Hidden Scroll:  The son of Hard Spun broke his maiden in impressive fashion over the slop back here on January 26th.  Mott does not usually put his horses into stakes races for their second go however he does speak highly of this one.  He earned a 102-speed figure in his debut so if he can run back to that he’ll be a player for sure.  Rosario went gate to wire in that race so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him out in front again.

 

#8 – Global Campaign:  Stanley Hough’s runner is two for two entering this race and has been nothing but impressive during those two starts.  The half-brother to Bolt d’Oro broke nicely in his last start and took the lead going into the first turn.  Entering the backstretch, he was passed by Blue Steel but remained in second before entering the final turn.  At the top of the stretch he already had a two-length lead and you can see Saez never touched the whip.  He was never pressured down the lane and look very professional in this race.


#9 – Everfast: The Dale Romans trainee will be making his third start off a layoff and recently finished second (at 128-1) in the Gr. II Holy Bull.  He had a relatively easy trip in that race sitting on the rail before being switched to the outside and rallied to finish second behind Harvey Wallbanger.  His early pressing style should have him mid-pack in the early stages but he does take off from an outside post so I could see him being four or five wide entering the first turn.


#10 – Frosted Grace: Comes into this race with a 5-1-1-1 record with his lone victory coming at 7F in his maiden breaking score (third start).  The son of Mark Velaski started 2019 in an optional claiming race going a mile and finished a close second behind Federal Case.  He followed that up with a fifth-place finish in the Gr. III Swale Stakes behind multiple graded stakes winner Call Paul.  Gonzales will try to grab good position early on but with the short stretch going into the first turn I see him being caught wide.


#11 – Union’s Destiny: The son of Union Rags has improving speed figures in his three career starts and will be making his graded stakes debut against a salty group.  This will also be his first start of 2019 so I think his back is up against the wall in this spot.  His lone win came in gate to wire fashion back here in August going 7F so it will be interesting to see where Reyes has him in the early stages.  Will look elsewhere.


Top Four: 8 – 7 – 4 - 5


Article by Josh Chicorelli 


About Josh:


Originally from Upstate New York,  Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".


Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga  Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.  


​Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).

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