Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Mucho Gusto capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
FG 13 (G2 Louisiana Derby, 9f) #8 COUNTRY HOUSE (9-2) made too many mistakes as my value top choice in the Risen Star (G2) and that cost him any chance of winning (career best 104 FIRE Number). He was better than everyone except War of Will that day and might be able to turn the tables on that rival with a more professional effort from off the pace. He should love today’s added ground. #10 Spinoff (8-1) is a dangerous early-pressing colt for Todd Pletcher. He ran well in both juvenile sprints and returned with a strong two turn optional claiming win at Tampa Bay Feb 22. There is not a ton of pace in this event and he might get brave if aggressively handled under John Velazquez. He drilled a bullet for this March 16 and would not have to improve much to win this. #4 Sueno (8-1) is on the improve and finished in front of subsequent Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Long Range Toddy in the Southwest (G3) last time. He drew well and projects a stalking trip. #6 War of Will (6-5) just goes out there and wins races and he could easily sweep the local points races. He figures to stalk the pace and Tyler Gaffalione is 3-for-3 with him. #9 Bankit (20-1) used to be a speed horse but changes tactics and rallied in his last four. There is a chance that he did not like Oaklawn Park and today’s rider Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard for his romping Sleepy Hollow victory vs. New York-breds last fall. He shows two local works for this and might spice up the exotics. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/4-6-10, Exacta 4-8-10/6, Trifecta 4-6-8-10/4-6-8-10/9
SUN 11 (G3 Sunland Derby, 9f) #2 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (3-1) is one of the most interesting Derby trail runners this year. He won his last three all-weather routes by a combined 16-lengths including the El Camino Real Derby Feb 16 (field-best 150 Final Rating), and you can draw a line through his dirt sprint bow at SA last fall. He should make his presence felt throughout and most likely wins this if he handles dirt. #1 Mucho Gusto (8-5) might be forced to go too fast early from the inside post. He is 3-for-4 with two graded wins but had everything go right on a wet speed favoring oval in the Robert Lewis (G3) Feb 2. I am not sure that he is a good as his reputation and the Baffert trainee looks like an underlay in this spot. #5 Cutting Humor (8-1) fits with these if he can run back to his runner-up finish behind Bourbon War Jan 18. He was the beaten favorite in the Southwest (G3) but did show some run in that event and might rebound if he settled early under John Velazquez. #4 Wicked Indeed (6-1) exits a clear place finish in the local prep for this and he gets pace to chase in the paper race. Contreras knows him now and he is the only top contender with a race over the track. The Plays: #2 to win, Exacta 2/1-4-5, Exacta 1-4-5/2, Trifecta Key 2/1-4-5
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 1 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Long Range Toddy ($18.80)
This was supposed to be a gimme for Improbable but Long Range Toddy had other ideas. Bob Baffert’s strong favorite stalked wide from the outside post and made his way to the lead in the stretch but Long Range Toddy wore him down late to win by a neck. The winner, ridden by Jon Court, always puts himself in a favorable stalking position and continues to get no respect from bettors despite finishing in the top three in all of his points race tries. Improbable was clearly second best and ran well considering all of the turmoil at Santa Anita recently. He should move forward in his final points race in the Arkansas Derby next month. Galilean attended the pace after a less than ideal start and was no match for the top two. Extra Hope made an early move from the inside post under Mike Smith but ran out of gas in late stretch. Easy Shot, Ninth Street, and Classy John trailed. The final time was 1:42.49.
Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 2 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Omaha Beach ($10.80)
The second division of the Rebel Stakes was run in slightly faster time (1:42.42) but the winner was not 2-year-old champion Game Winner. Richard Mandella’s Santa Anita shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on the Baffert chalk and held on by a nose in a nice effort in his stakes debut. Game Winner lost nothing in defeat. Like his stablemate Improbable, he had to call an audible after the San Felipe was cancelled a week earlier, and all of the wet weather in California this winter messed with his training schedule. He just missed in a rock solid effort while more than eight lengths clear of show finisher Market King. Late runner Gunmetal Gray got going too late and ended up 4th, and was followed by Jersey Agenda, Captain Von Trapp, Laughing Fox, Parsimony, Kaziranga, and Our Braintrust.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders (3-22-19)
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Comments: We finally got to see Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he did not disappoint despite losing by a nose. He was supposed to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes on March 9, but that race was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He was forced to ship to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 16. Fellow California shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on him and won the battle, but Game Winner brushed off the rust and appears poised to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6. I am sure that Bob Baffert is not worried about losing a mile and a sixteenth prep in his first start after a layoff. He just needed to get a race into his talented runner and the Rebel Stakes was a means to an end. The goal is to peak on the first Saturday in May, and that may very well happen.
Derby Points (45)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s other unbeaten juvenile was also supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe, and he also ended up at Oaklawn Park on March 16. He competed in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and missed by a neck from the outside post while racing wide throughout under Drayden van Dyke. I fully expect him to be much fitter in his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13. I would not be surprised to see both Baffert runners win their final Derby points races next month and head to Churchill Downs as the two favorites.
Derby Points (25)
(3) CODE OF HONOR (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 1:01.00 (1/6) at Payson Park on March 16.
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He is as talented as any sophomore in the land and is getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (54)
(4) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Latest Workout: 4f in 47.60 (3/31) at Fair Grounds on March 15.
Comments: He had two of the better looking points race victories this year in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He goes for a sweep of the Fair Grounds derby points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 23. He drew a better post in the LA Derby and figures to stalk the pace.
Derby Points (60)
(5) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.60 (2/15) at Payson Park on March 17.
Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still immature. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together. He will meet War of Will again in the Louisiana Derby, and he can turn the tables on that rival if he runs a more professional race. He will need pace help at Fair Grounds as well.
Derby Points (20)
(6) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Comments: Returned to the list after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs, and he sure seems like a mile and a quarter type.
Derby Points (50)
(7) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.40 (1/7) at Payson Park on March 22.
Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind a hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite in his stakes debut. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano.
Derby Points (5)
(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did enough to remain on my list. He ran well enough to earn one final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early.
Derby Points (10)
(9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.00 (2/11) at Golden Gate Fields on March 17.
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24. He drew post two at Sunland Park and should make his presence felt throughout if he handles dirt.
Derby Points (10)
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.76 (7/18) at Palm Beach Downs on March 15.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (10 points)
(11) SPINOFF (Hard Spun - Zaftig, by Gone West)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Werthheimer and Frere)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.59 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on March 16.
Comments: I have liked this one since he ran 3rd in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his second career start last summer. It was great to see him stretch out and improve in his romping Tampa Bay Downs return Feb. 22, and he finally shows up in a points race in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and should make his presence felt throughout at Fair Grounds on March 23.
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Roadster, (14) Omaha Beach, (15) Long Range Toddy, (16) Haikal, (17) Mucho Gusto, (18) Signalman, (19) Gunmetal Gray, (20) Instagrand
Article and by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
No comments:
Post a Comment