Here is my latest handicapping video featuring win picks for three stakes races at Santa Anita Park including the G1 Malibu.
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Showing posts with label Mucho Gusto. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mucho Gusto. Show all posts
Saturday, December 26, 2020
Friday, January 31, 2020
Pegasus World Cup Day 2020 Video Featuring Mucho Gusto
Check out my Pegasus World Cup Day 2020 video from Gulfstream Park for Saturday (1-25-20) below!
Video by Jarrod Horak
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.
Video by Jarrod Horak
Please visit The Runaway Horse Sales page to purchase my daily Santa Anita picks.
Friday, July 26, 2019
Saturday, March 30, 2019
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recap: Cutting Humor Takes Sunland Derby
Trainer Todd Pletcher is suddenly on a roll in Kentucky Derby 2019 points races. He saddled Spinoff to a strong runner-up finish in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on March 23, and the 40 points he earned is enough to run on the first Saturday in May. In the Sunland Derby on March 24, he saddled 2-1 winner Cutting Humor, and he picked up an important 50 Derby points in his neck victory over Anothertwistafate.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Cutting Humor capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Sunland Park Derby Recap (3-24-19) - Winner: Cutting Humor ($6.60)
1st - CUTTING HUMOR - Made a nice forward move and put it all together at Sunland Park on Sunday. He stalked the pace under John Velazquez, took the lead in the lane, and gamely held off Anothertwistafate by a neck. The improving son of First Samurai is peaking at the right time, but I think the runner-up would have beat him with a better trip.
2nd - Anothertwistafate - Golden Gate Fields all-weather specialist handled the dirt just fine in a clear place finish at Sunland Park. He controlled the pace in his three wins at Golden Gate including the El Camino Real Derby, which was a win and you're in race for the 2019 Preakness Stakes. He picked up 10 Derby points for that win, and another 20 for his second place finish on Sunday. In the Sunland Derby, he stalked the pace and was in an uncomfortable spot between horses. Cutting Humor got the jump on him, and he was gaining ground on that one in deep stretch but ultimately ran out of real estate. It was a good experience to run well without a perfect trip, and ten furlongs appears well within reach. His sire Scat Daddy was responsible for last year's Triple Crown hero Justify, and if there is one horse from this race with the ability to make some noise on the first Saturday in May, it is this guy.
3rd- Mucho Gusto - Took more win money than he should have for Bob Baffert. The inside post forced Joe Talamo to get aggressive early, and that likely cost him any chance of winning. He was the fourth best Derby hope in his own barn (Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster), and I am not surprised that he finished a well-beaten 3rd. He is a solid horse but I never had him ranked on my Derby list. He ended up about six lengths behind the top two.
4th - Wicked Indeed - Looked like the best of the local runners for Steve Asmussen. He raced evenly throughout while failing to make any serious inroads in the lane.
5th - Eye Cloud - Raced in last place for at least the first six furlongs before showing some late interest to finish well clear of the rest at 164-1.
6th - Pasamonte Man - Maiden figured to picked off a few of the back markers, but 64-1 longshot was just in too deep.
7th - Hustle Up - Overachieving New Mexico-bred front runner tried to go with Mucho Gusto early, but the classy speed horses were just too much for him, and he faded in the lane.
8th - Collusionist - never made his way out of 8th place at 95-1 under Scott Stevens.
9th - Walker Stalker - Sat in 6th place for much of the running before weakening to last place at 89-1.
Article by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Cutting Humor capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Sunland Park Derby Recap (3-24-19) - Winner: Cutting Humor ($6.60)
1st - CUTTING HUMOR - Made a nice forward move and put it all together at Sunland Park on Sunday. He stalked the pace under John Velazquez, took the lead in the lane, and gamely held off Anothertwistafate by a neck. The improving son of First Samurai is peaking at the right time, but I think the runner-up would have beat him with a better trip.
2nd - Anothertwistafate - Golden Gate Fields all-weather specialist handled the dirt just fine in a clear place finish at Sunland Park. He controlled the pace in his three wins at Golden Gate including the El Camino Real Derby, which was a win and you're in race for the 2019 Preakness Stakes. He picked up 10 Derby points for that win, and another 20 for his second place finish on Sunday. In the Sunland Derby, he stalked the pace and was in an uncomfortable spot between horses. Cutting Humor got the jump on him, and he was gaining ground on that one in deep stretch but ultimately ran out of real estate. It was a good experience to run well without a perfect trip, and ten furlongs appears well within reach. His sire Scat Daddy was responsible for last year's Triple Crown hero Justify, and if there is one horse from this race with the ability to make some noise on the first Saturday in May, it is this guy.
3rd- Mucho Gusto - Took more win money than he should have for Bob Baffert. The inside post forced Joe Talamo to get aggressive early, and that likely cost him any chance of winning. He was the fourth best Derby hope in his own barn (Game Winner, Improbable, Roadster), and I am not surprised that he finished a well-beaten 3rd. He is a solid horse but I never had him ranked on my Derby list. He ended up about six lengths behind the top two.
4th - Wicked Indeed - Looked like the best of the local runners for Steve Asmussen. He raced evenly throughout while failing to make any serious inroads in the lane.
5th - Eye Cloud - Raced in last place for at least the first six furlongs before showing some late interest to finish well clear of the rest at 164-1.
6th - Pasamonte Man - Maiden figured to picked off a few of the back markers, but 64-1 longshot was just in too deep.
7th - Hustle Up - Overachieving New Mexico-bred front runner tried to go with Mucho Gusto early, but the classy speed horses were just too much for him, and he faded in the lane.
8th - Collusionist - never made his way out of 8th place at 95-1 under Scott Stevens.
9th - Walker Stalker - Sat in 6th place for much of the running before weakening to last place at 89-1.
Article by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Saturday, March 23, 2019
Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: Rebel Recap + Louisiana Derby, Sunland Derby Preview
The Road to Kentucky Derby 2019 stops at Fair Grounds Race Course for the final time this year, and War of Will goes for a sweep of the New Orleans points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on Saturday, March 23. The other points race this weekend is the Sunland Derby (G3) on March 24, and Mucho Gusto is the 8-5 morning line favorite for Bob Baffert.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Mucho Gusto capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
FG 13 (G2 Louisiana Derby, 9f) #8 COUNTRY HOUSE (9-2) made too many mistakes as my value top choice in the Risen Star (G2) and that cost him any chance of winning (career best 104 FIRE Number). He was better than everyone except War of Will that day and might be able to turn the tables on that rival with a more professional effort from off the pace. He should love today’s added ground. #10 Spinoff (8-1) is a dangerous early-pressing colt for Todd Pletcher. He ran well in both juvenile sprints and returned with a strong two turn optional claiming win at Tampa Bay Feb 22. There is not a ton of pace in this event and he might get brave if aggressively handled under John Velazquez. He drilled a bullet for this March 16 and would not have to improve much to win this. #4 Sueno (8-1) is on the improve and finished in front of subsequent Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Long Range Toddy in the Southwest (G3) last time. He drew well and projects a stalking trip. #6 War of Will (6-5) just goes out there and wins races and he could easily sweep the local points races. He figures to stalk the pace and Tyler Gaffalione is 3-for-3 with him. #9 Bankit (20-1) used to be a speed horse but changes tactics and rallied in his last four. There is a chance that he did not like Oaklawn Park and today’s rider Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard for his romping Sleepy Hollow victory vs. New York-breds last fall. He shows two local works for this and might spice up the exotics. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/4-6-10, Exacta 4-8-10/6, Trifecta 4-6-8-10/4-6-8-10/9
SUN 11 (G3 Sunland Derby, 9f) #2 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (3-1) is one of the most interesting Derby trail runners this year. He won his last three all-weather routes by a combined 16-lengths including the El Camino Real Derby Feb 16 (field-best 150 Final Rating), and you can draw a line through his dirt sprint bow at SA last fall. He should make his presence felt throughout and most likely wins this if he handles dirt. #1 Mucho Gusto (8-5) might be forced to go too fast early from the inside post. He is 3-for-4 with two graded wins but had everything go right on a wet speed favoring oval in the Robert Lewis (G3) Feb 2. I am not sure that he is a good as his reputation and the Baffert trainee looks like an underlay in this spot. #5 Cutting Humor (8-1) fits with these if he can run back to his runner-up finish behind Bourbon War Jan 18. He was the beaten favorite in the Southwest (G3) but did show some run in that event and might rebound if he settled early under John Velazquez. #4 Wicked Indeed (6-1) exits a clear place finish in the local prep for this and he gets pace to chase in the paper race. Contreras knows him now and he is the only top contender with a race over the track. The Plays: #2 to win, Exacta 2/1-4-5, Exacta 1-4-5/2, Trifecta Key 2/1-4-5
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 1 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Long Range Toddy ($18.80)
This was supposed to be a gimme for Improbable but Long Range Toddy had other ideas. Bob Baffert’s strong favorite stalked wide from the outside post and made his way to the lead in the stretch but Long Range Toddy wore him down late to win by a neck. The winner, ridden by Jon Court, always puts himself in a favorable stalking position and continues to get no respect from bettors despite finishing in the top three in all of his points race tries. Improbable was clearly second best and ran well considering all of the turmoil at Santa Anita recently. He should move forward in his final points race in the Arkansas Derby next month. Galilean attended the pace after a less than ideal start and was no match for the top two. Extra Hope made an early move from the inside post under Mike Smith but ran out of gas in late stretch. Easy Shot, Ninth Street, and Classy John trailed. The final time was 1:42.49.
Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 2 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Omaha Beach ($10.80)
The second division of the Rebel Stakes was run in slightly faster time (1:42.42) but the winner was not 2-year-old champion Game Winner. Richard Mandella’s Santa Anita shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on the Baffert chalk and held on by a nose in a nice effort in his stakes debut. Game Winner lost nothing in defeat. Like his stablemate Improbable, he had to call an audible after the San Felipe was cancelled a week earlier, and all of the wet weather in California this winter messed with his training schedule. He just missed in a rock solid effort while more than eight lengths clear of show finisher Market King. Late runner Gunmetal Gray got going too late and ended up 4th, and was followed by Jersey Agenda, Captain Von Trapp, Laughing Fox, Parsimony, Kaziranga, and Our Braintrust.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders (3-22-19)
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Comments: We finally got to see Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he did not disappoint despite losing by a nose. He was supposed to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes on March 9, but that race was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He was forced to ship to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 16. Fellow California shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on him and won the battle, but Game Winner brushed off the rust and appears poised to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6. I am sure that Bob Baffert is not worried about losing a mile and a sixteenth prep in his first start after a layoff. He just needed to get a race into his talented runner and the Rebel Stakes was a means to an end. The goal is to peak on the first Saturday in May, and that may very well happen.
Derby Points (45)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s other unbeaten juvenile was also supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe, and he also ended up at Oaklawn Park on March 16. He competed in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and missed by a neck from the outside post while racing wide throughout under Drayden van Dyke. I fully expect him to be much fitter in his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13. I would not be surprised to see both Baffert runners win their final Derby points races next month and head to Churchill Downs as the two favorites.
Derby Points (25)
(3) CODE OF HONOR (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 1:01.00 (1/6) at Payson Park on March 16.
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He is as talented as any sophomore in the land and is getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (54)
(4) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Latest Workout: 4f in 47.60 (3/31) at Fair Grounds on March 15.
Comments: He had two of the better looking points race victories this year in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He goes for a sweep of the Fair Grounds derby points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 23. He drew a better post in the LA Derby and figures to stalk the pace.
Derby Points (60)
(5) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.60 (2/15) at Payson Park on March 17.
Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still immature. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together. He will meet War of Will again in the Louisiana Derby, and he can turn the tables on that rival if he runs a more professional race. He will need pace help at Fair Grounds as well.
Derby Points (20)
(6) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Comments: Returned to the list after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs, and he sure seems like a mile and a quarter type.
Derby Points (50)
(7) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.40 (1/7) at Payson Park on March 22.
Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind a hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite in his stakes debut. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano.
Derby Points (5)
(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did enough to remain on my list. He ran well enough to earn one final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early.
Derby Points (10)
(9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.00 (2/11) at Golden Gate Fields on March 17.
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24. He drew post two at Sunland Park and should make his presence felt throughout if he handles dirt.
Derby Points (10)
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.76 (7/18) at Palm Beach Downs on March 15.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (10 points)
(11) SPINOFF (Hard Spun - Zaftig, by Gone West)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Werthheimer and Frere)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.59 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on March 16.
Comments: I have liked this one since he ran 3rd in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his second career start last summer. It was great to see him stretch out and improve in his romping Tampa Bay Downs return Feb. 22, and he finally shows up in a points race in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and should make his presence felt throughout at Fair Grounds on March 23.
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Roadster, (14) Omaha Beach, (15) Long Range Toddy, (16) Haikal, (17) Mucho Gusto, (18) Signalman, (19) Gunmetal Gray, (20) Instagrand
Article and by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Mucho Gusto capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
FG 13 (G2 Louisiana Derby, 9f) #8 COUNTRY HOUSE (9-2) made too many mistakes as my value top choice in the Risen Star (G2) and that cost him any chance of winning (career best 104 FIRE Number). He was better than everyone except War of Will that day and might be able to turn the tables on that rival with a more professional effort from off the pace. He should love today’s added ground. #10 Spinoff (8-1) is a dangerous early-pressing colt for Todd Pletcher. He ran well in both juvenile sprints and returned with a strong two turn optional claiming win at Tampa Bay Feb 22. There is not a ton of pace in this event and he might get brave if aggressively handled under John Velazquez. He drilled a bullet for this March 16 and would not have to improve much to win this. #4 Sueno (8-1) is on the improve and finished in front of subsequent Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Long Range Toddy in the Southwest (G3) last time. He drew well and projects a stalking trip. #6 War of Will (6-5) just goes out there and wins races and he could easily sweep the local points races. He figures to stalk the pace and Tyler Gaffalione is 3-for-3 with him. #9 Bankit (20-1) used to be a speed horse but changes tactics and rallied in his last four. There is a chance that he did not like Oaklawn Park and today’s rider Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard for his romping Sleepy Hollow victory vs. New York-breds last fall. He shows two local works for this and might spice up the exotics. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/4-6-10, Exacta 4-8-10/6, Trifecta 4-6-8-10/4-6-8-10/9
SUN 11 (G3 Sunland Derby, 9f) #2 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (3-1) is one of the most interesting Derby trail runners this year. He won his last three all-weather routes by a combined 16-lengths including the El Camino Real Derby Feb 16 (field-best 150 Final Rating), and you can draw a line through his dirt sprint bow at SA last fall. He should make his presence felt throughout and most likely wins this if he handles dirt. #1 Mucho Gusto (8-5) might be forced to go too fast early from the inside post. He is 3-for-4 with two graded wins but had everything go right on a wet speed favoring oval in the Robert Lewis (G3) Feb 2. I am not sure that he is a good as his reputation and the Baffert trainee looks like an underlay in this spot. #5 Cutting Humor (8-1) fits with these if he can run back to his runner-up finish behind Bourbon War Jan 18. He was the beaten favorite in the Southwest (G3) but did show some run in that event and might rebound if he settled early under John Velazquez. #4 Wicked Indeed (6-1) exits a clear place finish in the local prep for this and he gets pace to chase in the paper race. Contreras knows him now and he is the only top contender with a race over the track. The Plays: #2 to win, Exacta 2/1-4-5, Exacta 1-4-5/2, Trifecta Key 2/1-4-5
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 1 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Long Range Toddy ($18.80)
This was supposed to be a gimme for Improbable but Long Range Toddy had other ideas. Bob Baffert’s strong favorite stalked wide from the outside post and made his way to the lead in the stretch but Long Range Toddy wore him down late to win by a neck. The winner, ridden by Jon Court, always puts himself in a favorable stalking position and continues to get no respect from bettors despite finishing in the top three in all of his points race tries. Improbable was clearly second best and ran well considering all of the turmoil at Santa Anita recently. He should move forward in his final points race in the Arkansas Derby next month. Galilean attended the pace after a less than ideal start and was no match for the top two. Extra Hope made an early move from the inside post under Mike Smith but ran out of gas in late stretch. Easy Shot, Ninth Street, and Classy John trailed. The final time was 1:42.49.
Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 2 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Omaha Beach ($10.80)
The second division of the Rebel Stakes was run in slightly faster time (1:42.42) but the winner was not 2-year-old champion Game Winner. Richard Mandella’s Santa Anita shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on the Baffert chalk and held on by a nose in a nice effort in his stakes debut. Game Winner lost nothing in defeat. Like his stablemate Improbable, he had to call an audible after the San Felipe was cancelled a week earlier, and all of the wet weather in California this winter messed with his training schedule. He just missed in a rock solid effort while more than eight lengths clear of show finisher Market King. Late runner Gunmetal Gray got going too late and ended up 4th, and was followed by Jersey Agenda, Captain Von Trapp, Laughing Fox, Parsimony, Kaziranga, and Our Braintrust.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders (3-22-19)
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Comments: We finally got to see Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he did not disappoint despite losing by a nose. He was supposed to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes on March 9, but that race was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He was forced to ship to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 16. Fellow California shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on him and won the battle, but Game Winner brushed off the rust and appears poised to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6. I am sure that Bob Baffert is not worried about losing a mile and a sixteenth prep in his first start after a layoff. He just needed to get a race into his talented runner and the Rebel Stakes was a means to an end. The goal is to peak on the first Saturday in May, and that may very well happen.
Derby Points (45)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s other unbeaten juvenile was also supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe, and he also ended up at Oaklawn Park on March 16. He competed in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and missed by a neck from the outside post while racing wide throughout under Drayden van Dyke. I fully expect him to be much fitter in his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13. I would not be surprised to see both Baffert runners win their final Derby points races next month and head to Churchill Downs as the two favorites.
Derby Points (25)
(3) CODE OF HONOR (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 1:01.00 (1/6) at Payson Park on March 16.
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He is as talented as any sophomore in the land and is getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (54)
(4) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Latest Workout: 4f in 47.60 (3/31) at Fair Grounds on March 15.
Comments: He had two of the better looking points race victories this year in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He goes for a sweep of the Fair Grounds derby points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 23. He drew a better post in the LA Derby and figures to stalk the pace.
Derby Points (60)
(5) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.60 (2/15) at Payson Park on March 17.
Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still immature. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together. He will meet War of Will again in the Louisiana Derby, and he can turn the tables on that rival if he runs a more professional race. He will need pace help at Fair Grounds as well.
Derby Points (20)
(6) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Comments: Returned to the list after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs, and he sure seems like a mile and a quarter type.
Derby Points (50)
(7) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.40 (1/7) at Payson Park on March 22.
Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind a hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite in his stakes debut. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano.
Derby Points (5)
(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did enough to remain on my list. He ran well enough to earn one final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early.
Derby Points (10)
(9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.00 (2/11) at Golden Gate Fields on March 17.
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24. He drew post two at Sunland Park and should make his presence felt throughout if he handles dirt.
Derby Points (10)
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.76 (7/18) at Palm Beach Downs on March 15.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (10 points)
(11) SPINOFF (Hard Spun - Zaftig, by Gone West)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Werthheimer and Frere)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.59 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on March 16.
Comments: I have liked this one since he ran 3rd in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his second career start last summer. It was great to see him stretch out and improve in his romping Tampa Bay Downs return Feb. 22, and he finally shows up in a points race in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and should make his presence felt throughout at Fair Grounds on March 23.
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Roadster, (14) Omaha Beach, (15) Long Range Toddy, (16) Haikal, (17) Mucho Gusto, (18) Signalman, (19) Gunmetal Gray, (20) Instagrand
Article and by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Friday, February 8, 2019
Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: Holy Bull, Robert Lewis, Withers Recap + Sam F. Davis Stakes Analysis
The Road to Kentucky Derby 2019 makes just one stop this week at Tampa Bay Downs for the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3). Last year’s Breeders’ Futurity winner and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up Knicks Go is the morning line favorite.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis for Saturday (2-9-19)
TAM 11 (G3 Sam F. Davis, 8.5f) #6 KENTUCKY WILDCAT (9-2) made nice progress in all three starts in New York last year and graduated in a flat mile affair when last seen at Aqueduct Dec. 1 (3 next-out winners). He owns a nice route pedigree and has the right running style for this (fast pace expected). #8 So Alive (5-1) stretched out to two turns and caught a fast track for the first time, and he looked good winning that local optional claiming event Jan 6 (blinkers on). He came back to drill a bullet Feb 3 and Castellano comes in to ride the Pletcher trainee. He gets pace to chase and might offer a hint of value. #10 Still Dreaming (15-1) is interesting at a price for Motion. He dueled and weakened in his 6f bow at Laurel Nov. 22, and he stretched out to a mile and was a sharp winner at that same venue Jan. 1 (clear runner-up Red Gum next-out winner). #4 Cave Run (6-1) is bred to route and gets pace to chase. He still has to prove himself on fast dirt and over a route of ground. #1 Counter Offer (12-1) was clearly second best behind So Alive last time. He should save all of the ground before launching his last rally and might spice up the exotics. I don’t love the outside post and the $460k purchase might end up losing too much ground stalking the pace. I have never been a big fan of #3 Knicks Go (5-2) and he will almost certainly take too much action today. He stretched out and stole the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at 70-1 last fall but that was not a fast race. His best effort was a runner-up finish in the BC Juvenile at 40-1 and he followed that up with a fading 11th place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in the slop. He meets plenty of other speed and is worth trying to beat on the win end. The Plays: #6 to win, Exacta 6/8-10, Exacta 8-10/6, Trifecta 6-8/1-3-4-6-8-10/1-4-6-8
Kentucky Derby Points Race Recaps
Withers Stakes (G3) from Aqueduct (2-2-19) - Winner: Tax
It is pretty early for these young sophomores to be traveling a mile and an eighth, and we really did not learn much in this affair. It was a thrilling three-horse photo finish that went to Tax by a head over front runner Not That Brady, and Our Braintrust was another neck back in 3rd. Former claimer Tax did not have the smoothest journey from the inside post and showed some determination. The runner-up did not have the best start and that probably cost him the win. Our Braintrust had stamina questions to answer and the fact that he hung in there throughout makes me think that none of these wanted to go this far. All-weather specialist Sir Winston was up for 4th and was followed by Admire, Moretti, and Lucky Lee.
Holy Bull Stakes (G2) from Gulfstream Park (2-2-19) - Winner: Harvey Wallbanger
Harvey Wallbanger stormed home from the back of the pack to pull off a 29-1 shocker in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Feb. 2. He has stamina and a decent late kick for trainer Ken McPeek, but he was really helped by the race shape in this event. Overall, I was not impressed with the quality of this Derby prep. I was surprised to see Harvey Wallbanger win, but 128-1 outsider Everfast running 2nd was a real head-scratcher. The Dale Romans trainee was beaten by a combined 69+ lengths in his other three graded tries and was the slowest entrant in the field on speed figures. That fact that he only lost this race by a length speaks volumes to the overall strength of this field. Strong favorite Maximus Mischief sat the perfect stalking trip and had every chance, but he got tired in a disappointing show finish. There was always a stamina concern for him and he sure looked like a miler today. Epic Dreamer took the race to Maximus Mischief right out of the box and only ended up a length behind that one in an okay performance. He was 6th of 11 in the Springboard Mile Dec. 16 and does not quite have graded stakes ability. Mihos checked in 5th and appears best in extended sprints. Garter and Tie, a disappointing Federal Case, Come On Gerry, and Gladiator King trailed.
Robert Lewis Stakes (G3) from Santa Anita Park (2-2-19) - Winner: Mucho Gusto
All of the luster was taken out of this race following the defection of Nolo Contesto, and Sadler and company must be thinking what might have been after watching Omaha Beach run off the screen in the fifth race. A field of five left the gate in this Derby points race and heavy favorite Mucho Gusto chased aggressive front runner Magnificent McCool. Bob Baffert’s favorite put away the surface switching early runner and the race was basically over after six furlongs. Mucho Gusto splashed home by 4+ lengths over Sham (G3) hero Gunmetal Gray. The latter gamely wore down Easy Shot for the place, and Magnificent McCool was a couple more lengths back in 4th. Kid Cantina took a bad step on the backstretch and was pulled up and vanned off. I doubt that we saw the Derby winner here but Mucho Gusto joins Extra Hope as next-out dirt route winners from the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). Those runners certainly flattered Improbable this week.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.20 (9/130) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 8.
Comments: Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion went 4-for-4 as a juvenile including a trio of grade one victories (Del Mar Futurity, American Pharoah Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile). The BC Juvenile has been a productive race so far (three next-out points race winners). Show finisher Signalman returned to take the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). 5th place finisher Gunmetal Gray won the Sham Stakes (G3) in his next start, and 7th place finisher Mind Control won the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on New Year’s Day. He has a strong pedigree, Derby-winning connections, class, running style versatility, and is in great shape as the current Derby points leader. He returned to the work tab Jan. 9 and is expected to have two Derby preps this year (San Felipe & SA Derby likely targets).
Derby Points (30)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:15.00 (11/17) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 8.
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: The Eclipse Award finalist followed up a debut sprint win at Santa Anita with a runaway score in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs on the Breeders’ Cup undercard (one mile around one turn). Bob Baffert’s talented runner was the strong favorite in the CashCall Futurity (G1) at Los Alamitos Race Course on Dec. 8, and he won for fun from the inside post. Troubled Los Al Futurity show finisher Extra Hope was a next-out allowance winner on a wet track at Santa Anita Jan. 31. Los Al Futurity runner-up Mucho Gusto won the Robert Lewis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 2. He has been finishing like he wants more ground and is a very promising player on the Derby trail. He returned to the work tab Jan. 9 and could end up shipping to Oaklawn for some upcoming Derby preps.
Derby Points (10)
(3) SIGNALMAN (General Quarters - Trip South, by Trippi)
Trainer (Ken McPeek) - Owner (Magdalena Racing)
Latest Workout: 4f in 46.63 (2/73) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 2.
Comments: This one racked up the Derby points as a juvenile with top three finishes in the Breeders’ Futurity (2nd), BC Juvenile (3rd), and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (1st). He sure was consistent last year and had his first published workout of 2019 on Jan. 26. He might make his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 2.
Derby Points (18)
(4) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.80 (4/12) at Payson Park on Feb. 8.
Comments: Could not have been more impressive in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile maiden special weight affair for three-year-olds, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and he widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. He is bred to handle a route of ground and could be any kind of performer. His aforementioned debut was on a wet track and I want to see if he can run the same race on dry land. We will find out how good he is in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
(5) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Latest Workout: 4f in 51.80 (60/64) at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 2.
Comments: Lost for the first time after a bad start from the rail in the Heft Stakes at Laurel Park Dec. 29. He was clearly second best that day and talented winner Alwaysmining has now won three straight (2 stakes wins). The Maryland based 3-year-old males are pretty good (Maryland Juvenile runner-up Our Braintrust was 2nd in Jerome at Aqueduct Jan 1). Michael Trombetta’s improving colt shipped to Tampa Bay Downs and ran off the screen in the Pasco Stakes at seven panels after a slow start on Jan. 19. He is targeting the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and is expected to work again on Sam F. Davis Day (2-9-19).
(6) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Latest Workout: 4f in 51.00 (138/170) at Fair Grounds on Feb. 2.
Comments: There have been seven Derby points races so far this year, and War of Will was the most impressive winner by far. He placed in the Summer (G1) on turf at Woodbine last summer, and he switched to dirt and cruised in his last pair, including a sharp stalk/pounce score in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds on Jan. 19. He owns a long distance turf pedigree and is on the upswing.
Derby Points (10)
(7) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Latest Workout: 4f in 50.00 (11/22) at Payson Park on Feb. 5.
Comments: I decided to replace Tacitus with Country House on my list because the former has not worked since Jan. 29 and has not raced this year, and the latter is pointing to the Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 16. I like the progress he made in each of his three starts. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and in his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a bad start and slow pace to win handily.
(8) INSTAGRAND (Into Mischief - Assets of War, by Lawyer Ron)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Latest Workout: 6f from the gate in 1:13.60 (7/17) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 8.
Comments: He showed endless potential in a pair of 10-length romps last summer including the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar. The $1.2 million purchase has not started since 8-11-18 and that was a decision made by his owner. I am not sure how far he ultimately wants to go but he certainly showed a lot of promise as a juvenile and he has six published workouts this year (thru Feb. 8). He might make his first 3-year-old start in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 9.
(9) MUCHO (Blame - Extent, by Pulpit)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 49.00 (1/16) at Payson Park on Feb. 4.
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after getting back on the work tab on Jan. 6. He followed up an okay 2nd in his June 10 debut at Belmont Park with a runaway maiden victory at Saratoga Aug. 4. He was the strong favorite in the Hopeful (G1) on closing day at Saratoga but was unable to catch Mind Control while clearly second best (129 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating). He figures to enjoy two turns and is expected to have his first start of 2019 sometime in March.
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 4f in 51.16 (16/19) at Palm Beach Downs on Jan. 29.
Comments: Followed up a smart six furlong debut win at Belmont Park Sept. 23 with a fairly easy triumph in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He was originally slated to go in the Remsen Stakes but got a break instead. He is wintering in Florida and returned to the work tab on Jan. 12. He has some route and sprint influences in his pedigree, and we will see how far he wants to go later this year. He might go next in the Fountain of Youth.
(11) GUNMETAL GRAY (Exchange Rate - Classofsixtythree, by Include)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (West Point Thoroughbreds and Jerry Hollendorfer)
Comments: Has now competed in four points races over a route of ground with a win in the Sham (G3) and runner-up finishes in the American Pharoah (G1) and Robert Lewis (G3). He handled a wet track in the latter race and gamely rallied for the place over that speed favoring surface. I still think that he is a cut below the best at this stage but he does have some stamina and a decent late kick.
Derby Points (18)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Code of Honor, (13) Coliseum, (14) Extra Hope, (15) Maximus Mischief, (16) Bourbon War, (17) Network Effect, (18) Harvey Wallbanger, (19) Tacitus, (20) Mucho Gusto
Kentucky Derby blog by Jarrod Horak
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more!
Kentucky Wildcat capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis for Saturday (2-9-19)
TAM 11 (G3 Sam F. Davis, 8.5f) #6 KENTUCKY WILDCAT (9-2) made nice progress in all three starts in New York last year and graduated in a flat mile affair when last seen at Aqueduct Dec. 1 (3 next-out winners). He owns a nice route pedigree and has the right running style for this (fast pace expected). #8 So Alive (5-1) stretched out to two turns and caught a fast track for the first time, and he looked good winning that local optional claiming event Jan 6 (blinkers on). He came back to drill a bullet Feb 3 and Castellano comes in to ride the Pletcher trainee. He gets pace to chase and might offer a hint of value. #10 Still Dreaming (15-1) is interesting at a price for Motion. He dueled and weakened in his 6f bow at Laurel Nov. 22, and he stretched out to a mile and was a sharp winner at that same venue Jan. 1 (clear runner-up Red Gum next-out winner). #4 Cave Run (6-1) is bred to route and gets pace to chase. He still has to prove himself on fast dirt and over a route of ground. #1 Counter Offer (12-1) was clearly second best behind So Alive last time. He should save all of the ground before launching his last rally and might spice up the exotics. I don’t love the outside post and the $460k purchase might end up losing too much ground stalking the pace. I have never been a big fan of #3 Knicks Go (5-2) and he will almost certainly take too much action today. He stretched out and stole the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at 70-1 last fall but that was not a fast race. His best effort was a runner-up finish in the BC Juvenile at 40-1 and he followed that up with a fading 11th place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) in the slop. He meets plenty of other speed and is worth trying to beat on the win end. The Plays: #6 to win, Exacta 6/8-10, Exacta 8-10/6, Trifecta 6-8/1-3-4-6-8-10/1-4-6-8
Kentucky Derby Points Race Recaps
Withers Stakes (G3) from Aqueduct (2-2-19) - Winner: Tax
It is pretty early for these young sophomores to be traveling a mile and an eighth, and we really did not learn much in this affair. It was a thrilling three-horse photo finish that went to Tax by a head over front runner Not That Brady, and Our Braintrust was another neck back in 3rd. Former claimer Tax did not have the smoothest journey from the inside post and showed some determination. The runner-up did not have the best start and that probably cost him the win. Our Braintrust had stamina questions to answer and the fact that he hung in there throughout makes me think that none of these wanted to go this far. All-weather specialist Sir Winston was up for 4th and was followed by Admire, Moretti, and Lucky Lee.
Holy Bull Stakes (G2) from Gulfstream Park (2-2-19) - Winner: Harvey Wallbanger
Harvey Wallbanger stormed home from the back of the pack to pull off a 29-1 shocker in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Feb. 2. He has stamina and a decent late kick for trainer Ken McPeek, but he was really helped by the race shape in this event. Overall, I was not impressed with the quality of this Derby prep. I was surprised to see Harvey Wallbanger win, but 128-1 outsider Everfast running 2nd was a real head-scratcher. The Dale Romans trainee was beaten by a combined 69+ lengths in his other three graded tries and was the slowest entrant in the field on speed figures. That fact that he only lost this race by a length speaks volumes to the overall strength of this field. Strong favorite Maximus Mischief sat the perfect stalking trip and had every chance, but he got tired in a disappointing show finish. There was always a stamina concern for him and he sure looked like a miler today. Epic Dreamer took the race to Maximus Mischief right out of the box and only ended up a length behind that one in an okay performance. He was 6th of 11 in the Springboard Mile Dec. 16 and does not quite have graded stakes ability. Mihos checked in 5th and appears best in extended sprints. Garter and Tie, a disappointing Federal Case, Come On Gerry, and Gladiator King trailed.
Robert Lewis Stakes (G3) from Santa Anita Park (2-2-19) - Winner: Mucho Gusto
All of the luster was taken out of this race following the defection of Nolo Contesto, and Sadler and company must be thinking what might have been after watching Omaha Beach run off the screen in the fifth race. A field of five left the gate in this Derby points race and heavy favorite Mucho Gusto chased aggressive front runner Magnificent McCool. Bob Baffert’s favorite put away the surface switching early runner and the race was basically over after six furlongs. Mucho Gusto splashed home by 4+ lengths over Sham (G3) hero Gunmetal Gray. The latter gamely wore down Easy Shot for the place, and Magnificent McCool was a couple more lengths back in 4th. Kid Cantina took a bad step on the backstretch and was pulled up and vanned off. I doubt that we saw the Derby winner here but Mucho Gusto joins Extra Hope as next-out dirt route winners from the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). Those runners certainly flattered Improbable this week.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.20 (9/130) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 8.
Comments: Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion went 4-for-4 as a juvenile including a trio of grade one victories (Del Mar Futurity, American Pharoah Stakes, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile). The BC Juvenile has been a productive race so far (three next-out points race winners). Show finisher Signalman returned to take the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). 5th place finisher Gunmetal Gray won the Sham Stakes (G3) in his next start, and 7th place finisher Mind Control won the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct on New Year’s Day. He has a strong pedigree, Derby-winning connections, class, running style versatility, and is in great shape as the current Derby points leader. He returned to the work tab Jan. 9 and is expected to have two Derby preps this year (San Felipe & SA Derby likely targets).
Derby Points (30)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:15.00 (11/17) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 8.
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: The Eclipse Award finalist followed up a debut sprint win at Santa Anita with a runaway score in the Street Sense at Churchill Downs on the Breeders’ Cup undercard (one mile around one turn). Bob Baffert’s talented runner was the strong favorite in the CashCall Futurity (G1) at Los Alamitos Race Course on Dec. 8, and he won for fun from the inside post. Troubled Los Al Futurity show finisher Extra Hope was a next-out allowance winner on a wet track at Santa Anita Jan. 31. Los Al Futurity runner-up Mucho Gusto won the Robert Lewis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 2. He has been finishing like he wants more ground and is a very promising player on the Derby trail. He returned to the work tab Jan. 9 and could end up shipping to Oaklawn for some upcoming Derby preps.
Derby Points (10)
(3) SIGNALMAN (General Quarters - Trip South, by Trippi)
Trainer (Ken McPeek) - Owner (Magdalena Racing)
Latest Workout: 4f in 46.63 (2/73) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 2.
Comments: This one racked up the Derby points as a juvenile with top three finishes in the Breeders’ Futurity (2nd), BC Juvenile (3rd), and Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (1st). He sure was consistent last year and had his first published workout of 2019 on Jan. 26. He might make his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park on March 2.
Derby Points (18)
(4) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.80 (4/12) at Payson Park on Feb. 8.
Comments: Could not have been more impressive in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile maiden special weight affair for three-year-olds, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and he widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. He is bred to handle a route of ground and could be any kind of performer. His aforementioned debut was on a wet track and I want to see if he can run the same race on dry land. We will find out how good he is in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
(5) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Latest Workout: 4f in 51.80 (60/64) at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 2.
Comments: Lost for the first time after a bad start from the rail in the Heft Stakes at Laurel Park Dec. 29. He was clearly second best that day and talented winner Alwaysmining has now won three straight (2 stakes wins). The Maryland based 3-year-old males are pretty good (Maryland Juvenile runner-up Our Braintrust was 2nd in Jerome at Aqueduct Jan 1). Michael Trombetta’s improving colt shipped to Tampa Bay Downs and ran off the screen in the Pasco Stakes at seven panels after a slow start on Jan. 19. He is targeting the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and is expected to work again on Sam F. Davis Day (2-9-19).
(6) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Latest Workout: 4f in 51.00 (138/170) at Fair Grounds on Feb. 2.
Comments: There have been seven Derby points races so far this year, and War of Will was the most impressive winner by far. He placed in the Summer (G1) on turf at Woodbine last summer, and he switched to dirt and cruised in his last pair, including a sharp stalk/pounce score in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds on Jan. 19. He owns a long distance turf pedigree and is on the upswing.
Derby Points (10)
(7) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Latest Workout: 4f in 50.00 (11/22) at Payson Park on Feb. 5.
Comments: I decided to replace Tacitus with Country House on my list because the former has not worked since Jan. 29 and has not raced this year, and the latter is pointing to the Risen Star at Fair Grounds on Feb. 16. I like the progress he made in each of his three starts. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and in his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a bad start and slow pace to win handily.
(8) INSTAGRAND (Into Mischief - Assets of War, by Lawyer Ron)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (OXO Equine LLC)
Latest Workout: 6f from the gate in 1:13.60 (7/17) at Santa Anita Park on Feb. 8.
Comments: He showed endless potential in a pair of 10-length romps last summer including the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar. The $1.2 million purchase has not started since 8-11-18 and that was a decision made by his owner. I am not sure how far he ultimately wants to go but he certainly showed a lot of promise as a juvenile and he has six published workouts this year (thru Feb. 8). He might make his first 3-year-old start in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 9.
(9) MUCHO (Blame - Extent, by Pulpit)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 49.00 (1/16) at Payson Park on Feb. 4.
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after getting back on the work tab on Jan. 6. He followed up an okay 2nd in his June 10 debut at Belmont Park with a runaway maiden victory at Saratoga Aug. 4. He was the strong favorite in the Hopeful (G1) on closing day at Saratoga but was unable to catch Mind Control while clearly second best (129 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating). He figures to enjoy two turns and is expected to have his first start of 2019 sometime in March.
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 4f in 51.16 (16/19) at Palm Beach Downs on Jan. 29.
Comments: Followed up a smart six furlong debut win at Belmont Park Sept. 23 with a fairly easy triumph in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He was originally slated to go in the Remsen Stakes but got a break instead. He is wintering in Florida and returned to the work tab on Jan. 12. He has some route and sprint influences in his pedigree, and we will see how far he wants to go later this year. He might go next in the Fountain of Youth.
(11) GUNMETAL GRAY (Exchange Rate - Classofsixtythree, by Include)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (West Point Thoroughbreds and Jerry Hollendorfer)
Comments: Has now competed in four points races over a route of ground with a win in the Sham (G3) and runner-up finishes in the American Pharoah (G1) and Robert Lewis (G3). He handled a wet track in the latter race and gamely rallied for the place over that speed favoring surface. I still think that he is a cut below the best at this stage but he does have some stamina and a decent late kick.
Derby Points (18)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Code of Honor, (13) Coliseum, (14) Extra Hope, (15) Maximus Mischief, (16) Bourbon War, (17) Network Effect, (18) Harvey Wallbanger, (19) Tacitus, (20) Mucho Gusto
Kentucky Derby blog by Jarrod Horak
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more!
Kentucky Wildcat capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
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