Here is my #BreedersCup Classic 2020 video.
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Showing posts with label Improbable. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Improbable. Show all posts
Saturday, November 7, 2020
Breeders' Cup Classic 2020 Video Preview
Here is my early #BreedersCup Classic 2020 video preview.
Check out free stakes picks and more at The Runaway Horse.
Saturday, October 5, 2019
Pennsylvania Derby 2019 Video From Parx Featuring Mr. Money & Improbable
Check out my PA Derby video from Parx for Saturday (9-21-19) below!
Friday, July 26, 2019
Saturday, April 20, 2019
Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: Mike Smith to Ride Derby Favorite Omaha Beach at Churchill Downs
All of the Kentucky Derby 2019 points races have been run and now were are counting down to the first Saturday in May. Omaha Beach won the final prep at Oaklawn Park in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and is your likely favorite on the first Saturday in May.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Omaha Beach capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Lexington Stakes (G3) Recap (4-13-19) - Winner: Owendale ($27.40)
Owendale made a wide, sweeping move from off the pace and took down top honors by a bit less than two lengths. He was an early season Derby buzz horse after a fast allowance route win at Fair Grounds in January. He failed his first points test in the Risen Star (G2), and bounced back with a nice victory in this event. He picked up 20 Derby points but that is not nearly enough to make the field. He figures to target the Preakness Stakes (G1) and clearly has some talent. The Lexington Stakes (G3) was basically a win and you’re in for Anothertwsitafate, and he fell a length and three-quarters short in a solid place finish. In his start prior to the Lexington, he switched to dirt, stalked the pace, and surged in the lane to miss by a neck in the Sunland Derby (G3). In those two races, he was a bit uncomfortable chasing the pace in and amongst horses, but he fought hard throughout both times despite less than ideal circumstances. I think he is best setting the pace or stalking outside and in the clear, and he is currently on the outside looking in at #23 on the Derby points list. Earlier this winter, he was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields on all-weather footing, and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy needs a few defections to get into the Derby, and the best thing for him might be missing that race and waiting for the Preakness. The Derby would be his third start in six weeks. If he waits for the Preakness, he would have five weeks between races, and he is talented enough to make some noise in Baltimore. Sueno was also on the points bubble and needed a win here, but all he could manage was a clear place finish. The Keith Desormeaux trainee is consistent but a cut or two below the top 3-year-olds. Knicks Go attended the pace and finished 4th, and was followed by Shang, Roiland, Harvey Wallbanger, Zenden, Hawaiian Noises, and Chase the Ghost.
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Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Omaha Beach capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Lexington Stakes (G3) Recap (4-13-19) - Winner: Owendale ($27.40)
Owendale made a wide, sweeping move from off the pace and took down top honors by a bit less than two lengths. He was an early season Derby buzz horse after a fast allowance route win at Fair Grounds in January. He failed his first points test in the Risen Star (G2), and bounced back with a nice victory in this event. He picked up 20 Derby points but that is not nearly enough to make the field. He figures to target the Preakness Stakes (G1) and clearly has some talent. The Lexington Stakes (G3) was basically a win and you’re in for Anothertwsitafate, and he fell a length and three-quarters short in a solid place finish. In his start prior to the Lexington, he switched to dirt, stalked the pace, and surged in the lane to miss by a neck in the Sunland Derby (G3). In those two races, he was a bit uncomfortable chasing the pace in and amongst horses, but he fought hard throughout both times despite less than ideal circumstances. I think he is best setting the pace or stalking outside and in the clear, and he is currently on the outside looking in at #23 on the Derby points list. Earlier this winter, he was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields on all-weather footing, and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy needs a few defections to get into the Derby, and the best thing for him might be missing that race and waiting for the Preakness. The Derby would be his third start in six weeks. If he waits for the Preakness, he would have five weeks between races, and he is talented enough to make some noise in Baltimore. Sueno was also on the points bubble and needed a win here, but all he could manage was a clear place finish. The Keith Desormeaux trainee is consistent but a cut or two below the top 3-year-olds. Knicks Go attended the pace and finished 4th, and was followed by Shang, Roiland, Harvey Wallbanger, Zenden, Hawaiian Noises, and Chase the Ghost.
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Saturday, April 13, 2019
Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Video: Arkansas Derby & Lexington Stakes
Check out my top win contenders for the Arkansas Derby & Lexington Stakes in my Today's Racing Digest video below!
Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: End of the Line for Derby Points Races
This is the final week for points races on the Road to Kentucky Derby 2019. Omaha Beach and Improbable are the two favorites in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, April 13, and Anothertwistafate and Sueno square off in the Lexington Stakes (G3) on the same day at Keeneland.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Omaha Beach capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis for Saturday (4-13-19)
KEE 9 (G3 Lexington, 8.5f) #4 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (2-1) proved that he could handle dirt in a surging place finish in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24 (137 CPR, 155 Pace Rating, 149 Final Rating). I like his early-pressing versatility and Castellano should have options. He drilled a Sunland bullet for this April 4 and has the talent to make short work of this group. #3 Sueno (5-1) fired trifecta shots in all six starts including a trio of underneath finishes in Derby points races (2nd in G3 Sham, 2nd in G3 Southwest, 3rd in G2 LA Derby). He projects another decent tactical trip under Lanerie. #5 Harvey Wallbanger (7-2) and #10 Roiland (15-1) did not get much pace help in the Florida Derby (G1) and LA Derby (G2) in their last starts. I can see one or both hitting the board if the pace heats up. The Plays: #4 to win, Exacta 4-3, Trifecta Key 4/3-5-10
OP 11 (G1 Arkansas Derby, 9f) #8 COUNTRY HOUSE (12-1) is slowly improving for Mott and this would be a great time to put it all together. Rosario might be a good fit for this one and there is pace to chase today. He was off slow and wide in the LA Derby (G2), and he flattened out in the lane after putting in a big run around the far turn (improved 106 FIRE). Plus, the speed did not come back that day, but it might in this spot. #3 Omaha Beach (2-1) has put in all together in his last pair and gamely beat Game Winner in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) March 16. He is firing bullets for this and could easily score again. #1 Improbable (8-5) adds blinkers and goes from the outside post in the Rebel Stakes (G2) to the rail in this longer event. He won all three starts last year from inner posts including a razor sharp score from the rail in the Los Al Futurity (G1). He drilled a SA bullet for this April 5. #11 Long Range Toddy (5-1) always finishes in the top three in these points races, He will have to work out a trip from the outside post and he upset Improbable in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) under today’s rider Jon Court March 16. #7 Galilean (10-1) removes blinkers after an okay 3rd in the 1st division of the Rebel Stakes (G2). He figures to stalk the pace under Prat. #5 Laughing Fox (20-1) was pinched at the start and never got involved vs. Omaha Beach last time. He fired a bullet in the local mud April 8 and deserves another chance in the stakes ranks. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/1-3, Exacta 1-3/8, Superfecta 8/1-3/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/8/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/1-3-11/8/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11/8
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Blue Grass Stakes (G2) Recap (4-6-19) - Winner: Vekoma ($4.80)
Vekoma did not disappoint as the favorite in his final Derby prep. He chased the pace from 2nd, took the lead, and rode the speed bias to an easy 3-1/2 length victory. He was good as a juvenile and has improved this year. He will have to improve again to compete for a top prize on the first Saturday in May. Win Win Win rallied to grab the place in the final strides and has also secured his spot in the Derby. Signalman stalked the pace and just missed the place. He finished in the top three in four of his five points races and is #18 on the Derby points list. Somelikeithotbrown battled on the pace and weakened late to finish 4th. He is currently #21 on the points list (30 points) and is on the outside looking in. Chess Chief, So Alive, Sir Winston, Admire, Moonster, Lucky Lee, Market King, Aquadini, Dream Maker, and Parsimony completed the order of finish.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Omaha Beach capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis for Saturday (4-13-19)
KEE 9 (G3 Lexington, 8.5f) #4 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (2-1) proved that he could handle dirt in a surging place finish in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24 (137 CPR, 155 Pace Rating, 149 Final Rating). I like his early-pressing versatility and Castellano should have options. He drilled a Sunland bullet for this April 4 and has the talent to make short work of this group. #3 Sueno (5-1) fired trifecta shots in all six starts including a trio of underneath finishes in Derby points races (2nd in G3 Sham, 2nd in G3 Southwest, 3rd in G2 LA Derby). He projects another decent tactical trip under Lanerie. #5 Harvey Wallbanger (7-2) and #10 Roiland (15-1) did not get much pace help in the Florida Derby (G1) and LA Derby (G2) in their last starts. I can see one or both hitting the board if the pace heats up. The Plays: #4 to win, Exacta 4-3, Trifecta Key 4/3-5-10
OP 11 (G1 Arkansas Derby, 9f) #8 COUNTRY HOUSE (12-1) is slowly improving for Mott and this would be a great time to put it all together. Rosario might be a good fit for this one and there is pace to chase today. He was off slow and wide in the LA Derby (G2), and he flattened out in the lane after putting in a big run around the far turn (improved 106 FIRE). Plus, the speed did not come back that day, but it might in this spot. #3 Omaha Beach (2-1) has put in all together in his last pair and gamely beat Game Winner in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) March 16. He is firing bullets for this and could easily score again. #1 Improbable (8-5) adds blinkers and goes from the outside post in the Rebel Stakes (G2) to the rail in this longer event. He won all three starts last year from inner posts including a razor sharp score from the rail in the Los Al Futurity (G1). He drilled a SA bullet for this April 5. #11 Long Range Toddy (5-1) always finishes in the top three in these points races, He will have to work out a trip from the outside post and he upset Improbable in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) under today’s rider Jon Court March 16. #7 Galilean (10-1) removes blinkers after an okay 3rd in the 1st division of the Rebel Stakes (G2). He figures to stalk the pace under Prat. #5 Laughing Fox (20-1) was pinched at the start and never got involved vs. Omaha Beach last time. He fired a bullet in the local mud April 8 and deserves another chance in the stakes ranks. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/1-3, Exacta 1-3/8, Superfecta 8/1-3/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/8/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/1-3-11/8/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11/8
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Blue Grass Stakes (G2) Recap (4-6-19) - Winner: Vekoma ($4.80)
Vekoma did not disappoint as the favorite in his final Derby prep. He chased the pace from 2nd, took the lead, and rode the speed bias to an easy 3-1/2 length victory. He was good as a juvenile and has improved this year. He will have to improve again to compete for a top prize on the first Saturday in May. Win Win Win rallied to grab the place in the final strides and has also secured his spot in the Derby. Signalman stalked the pace and just missed the place. He finished in the top three in four of his five points races and is #18 on the Derby points list. Somelikeithotbrown battled on the pace and weakened late to finish 4th. He is currently #21 on the points list (30 points) and is on the outside looking in. Chess Chief, So Alive, Sir Winston, Admire, Moonster, Lucky Lee, Market King, Aquadini, Dream Maker, and Parsimony completed the order of finish.
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Saturday, March 23, 2019
Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: Rebel Recap + Louisiana Derby, Sunland Derby Preview
The Road to Kentucky Derby 2019 stops at Fair Grounds Race Course for the final time this year, and War of Will goes for a sweep of the New Orleans points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on Saturday, March 23. The other points race this weekend is the Sunland Derby (G3) on March 24, and Mucho Gusto is the 8-5 morning line favorite for Bob Baffert.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Mucho Gusto capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
FG 13 (G2 Louisiana Derby, 9f) #8 COUNTRY HOUSE (9-2) made too many mistakes as my value top choice in the Risen Star (G2) and that cost him any chance of winning (career best 104 FIRE Number). He was better than everyone except War of Will that day and might be able to turn the tables on that rival with a more professional effort from off the pace. He should love today’s added ground. #10 Spinoff (8-1) is a dangerous early-pressing colt for Todd Pletcher. He ran well in both juvenile sprints and returned with a strong two turn optional claiming win at Tampa Bay Feb 22. There is not a ton of pace in this event and he might get brave if aggressively handled under John Velazquez. He drilled a bullet for this March 16 and would not have to improve much to win this. #4 Sueno (8-1) is on the improve and finished in front of subsequent Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Long Range Toddy in the Southwest (G3) last time. He drew well and projects a stalking trip. #6 War of Will (6-5) just goes out there and wins races and he could easily sweep the local points races. He figures to stalk the pace and Tyler Gaffalione is 3-for-3 with him. #9 Bankit (20-1) used to be a speed horse but changes tactics and rallied in his last four. There is a chance that he did not like Oaklawn Park and today’s rider Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard for his romping Sleepy Hollow victory vs. New York-breds last fall. He shows two local works for this and might spice up the exotics. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/4-6-10, Exacta 4-8-10/6, Trifecta 4-6-8-10/4-6-8-10/9
SUN 11 (G3 Sunland Derby, 9f) #2 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (3-1) is one of the most interesting Derby trail runners this year. He won his last three all-weather routes by a combined 16-lengths including the El Camino Real Derby Feb 16 (field-best 150 Final Rating), and you can draw a line through his dirt sprint bow at SA last fall. He should make his presence felt throughout and most likely wins this if he handles dirt. #1 Mucho Gusto (8-5) might be forced to go too fast early from the inside post. He is 3-for-4 with two graded wins but had everything go right on a wet speed favoring oval in the Robert Lewis (G3) Feb 2. I am not sure that he is a good as his reputation and the Baffert trainee looks like an underlay in this spot. #5 Cutting Humor (8-1) fits with these if he can run back to his runner-up finish behind Bourbon War Jan 18. He was the beaten favorite in the Southwest (G3) but did show some run in that event and might rebound if he settled early under John Velazquez. #4 Wicked Indeed (6-1) exits a clear place finish in the local prep for this and he gets pace to chase in the paper race. Contreras knows him now and he is the only top contender with a race over the track. The Plays: #2 to win, Exacta 2/1-4-5, Exacta 1-4-5/2, Trifecta Key 2/1-4-5
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 1 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Long Range Toddy ($18.80)
This was supposed to be a gimme for Improbable but Long Range Toddy had other ideas. Bob Baffert’s strong favorite stalked wide from the outside post and made his way to the lead in the stretch but Long Range Toddy wore him down late to win by a neck. The winner, ridden by Jon Court, always puts himself in a favorable stalking position and continues to get no respect from bettors despite finishing in the top three in all of his points race tries. Improbable was clearly second best and ran well considering all of the turmoil at Santa Anita recently. He should move forward in his final points race in the Arkansas Derby next month. Galilean attended the pace after a less than ideal start and was no match for the top two. Extra Hope made an early move from the inside post under Mike Smith but ran out of gas in late stretch. Easy Shot, Ninth Street, and Classy John trailed. The final time was 1:42.49.
Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 2 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Omaha Beach ($10.80)
The second division of the Rebel Stakes was run in slightly faster time (1:42.42) but the winner was not 2-year-old champion Game Winner. Richard Mandella’s Santa Anita shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on the Baffert chalk and held on by a nose in a nice effort in his stakes debut. Game Winner lost nothing in defeat. Like his stablemate Improbable, he had to call an audible after the San Felipe was cancelled a week earlier, and all of the wet weather in California this winter messed with his training schedule. He just missed in a rock solid effort while more than eight lengths clear of show finisher Market King. Late runner Gunmetal Gray got going too late and ended up 4th, and was followed by Jersey Agenda, Captain Von Trapp, Laughing Fox, Parsimony, Kaziranga, and Our Braintrust.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders (3-22-19)
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Comments: We finally got to see Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he did not disappoint despite losing by a nose. He was supposed to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes on March 9, but that race was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He was forced to ship to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 16. Fellow California shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on him and won the battle, but Game Winner brushed off the rust and appears poised to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6. I am sure that Bob Baffert is not worried about losing a mile and a sixteenth prep in his first start after a layoff. He just needed to get a race into his talented runner and the Rebel Stakes was a means to an end. The goal is to peak on the first Saturday in May, and that may very well happen.
Derby Points (45)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s other unbeaten juvenile was also supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe, and he also ended up at Oaklawn Park on March 16. He competed in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and missed by a neck from the outside post while racing wide throughout under Drayden van Dyke. I fully expect him to be much fitter in his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13. I would not be surprised to see both Baffert runners win their final Derby points races next month and head to Churchill Downs as the two favorites.
Derby Points (25)
(3) CODE OF HONOR (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 1:01.00 (1/6) at Payson Park on March 16.
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He is as talented as any sophomore in the land and is getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (54)
(4) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Latest Workout: 4f in 47.60 (3/31) at Fair Grounds on March 15.
Comments: He had two of the better looking points race victories this year in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He goes for a sweep of the Fair Grounds derby points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 23. He drew a better post in the LA Derby and figures to stalk the pace.
Derby Points (60)
(5) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.60 (2/15) at Payson Park on March 17.
Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still immature. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together. He will meet War of Will again in the Louisiana Derby, and he can turn the tables on that rival if he runs a more professional race. He will need pace help at Fair Grounds as well.
Derby Points (20)
(6) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Comments: Returned to the list after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs, and he sure seems like a mile and a quarter type.
Derby Points (50)
(7) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.40 (1/7) at Payson Park on March 22.
Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind a hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite in his stakes debut. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano.
Derby Points (5)
(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did enough to remain on my list. He ran well enough to earn one final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early.
Derby Points (10)
(9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.00 (2/11) at Golden Gate Fields on March 17.
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24. He drew post two at Sunland Park and should make his presence felt throughout if he handles dirt.
Derby Points (10)
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.76 (7/18) at Palm Beach Downs on March 15.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (10 points)
(11) SPINOFF (Hard Spun - Zaftig, by Gone West)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Werthheimer and Frere)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.59 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on March 16.
Comments: I have liked this one since he ran 3rd in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his second career start last summer. It was great to see him stretch out and improve in his romping Tampa Bay Downs return Feb. 22, and he finally shows up in a points race in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and should make his presence felt throughout at Fair Grounds on March 23.
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Roadster, (14) Omaha Beach, (15) Long Range Toddy, (16) Haikal, (17) Mucho Gusto, (18) Signalman, (19) Gunmetal Gray, (20) Instagrand
Article and by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
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Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
FG 13 (G2 Louisiana Derby, 9f) #8 COUNTRY HOUSE (9-2) made too many mistakes as my value top choice in the Risen Star (G2) and that cost him any chance of winning (career best 104 FIRE Number). He was better than everyone except War of Will that day and might be able to turn the tables on that rival with a more professional effort from off the pace. He should love today’s added ground. #10 Spinoff (8-1) is a dangerous early-pressing colt for Todd Pletcher. He ran well in both juvenile sprints and returned with a strong two turn optional claiming win at Tampa Bay Feb 22. There is not a ton of pace in this event and he might get brave if aggressively handled under John Velazquez. He drilled a bullet for this March 16 and would not have to improve much to win this. #4 Sueno (8-1) is on the improve and finished in front of subsequent Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Long Range Toddy in the Southwest (G3) last time. He drew well and projects a stalking trip. #6 War of Will (6-5) just goes out there and wins races and he could easily sweep the local points races. He figures to stalk the pace and Tyler Gaffalione is 3-for-3 with him. #9 Bankit (20-1) used to be a speed horse but changes tactics and rallied in his last four. There is a chance that he did not like Oaklawn Park and today’s rider Irad Ortiz Jr. was aboard for his romping Sleepy Hollow victory vs. New York-breds last fall. He shows two local works for this and might spice up the exotics. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/4-6-10, Exacta 4-8-10/6, Trifecta 4-6-8-10/4-6-8-10/9
SUN 11 (G3 Sunland Derby, 9f) #2 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (3-1) is one of the most interesting Derby trail runners this year. He won his last three all-weather routes by a combined 16-lengths including the El Camino Real Derby Feb 16 (field-best 150 Final Rating), and you can draw a line through his dirt sprint bow at SA last fall. He should make his presence felt throughout and most likely wins this if he handles dirt. #1 Mucho Gusto (8-5) might be forced to go too fast early from the inside post. He is 3-for-4 with two graded wins but had everything go right on a wet speed favoring oval in the Robert Lewis (G3) Feb 2. I am not sure that he is a good as his reputation and the Baffert trainee looks like an underlay in this spot. #5 Cutting Humor (8-1) fits with these if he can run back to his runner-up finish behind Bourbon War Jan 18. He was the beaten favorite in the Southwest (G3) but did show some run in that event and might rebound if he settled early under John Velazquez. #4 Wicked Indeed (6-1) exits a clear place finish in the local prep for this and he gets pace to chase in the paper race. Contreras knows him now and he is the only top contender with a race over the track. The Plays: #2 to win, Exacta 2/1-4-5, Exacta 1-4-5/2, Trifecta Key 2/1-4-5
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 1 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Long Range Toddy ($18.80)
This was supposed to be a gimme for Improbable but Long Range Toddy had other ideas. Bob Baffert’s strong favorite stalked wide from the outside post and made his way to the lead in the stretch but Long Range Toddy wore him down late to win by a neck. The winner, ridden by Jon Court, always puts himself in a favorable stalking position and continues to get no respect from bettors despite finishing in the top three in all of his points race tries. Improbable was clearly second best and ran well considering all of the turmoil at Santa Anita recently. He should move forward in his final points race in the Arkansas Derby next month. Galilean attended the pace after a less than ideal start and was no match for the top two. Extra Hope made an early move from the inside post under Mike Smith but ran out of gas in late stretch. Easy Shot, Ninth Street, and Classy John trailed. The final time was 1:42.49.
Rebel Stakes (G2) Division 2 Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19) - Winner: Omaha Beach ($10.80)
The second division of the Rebel Stakes was run in slightly faster time (1:42.42) but the winner was not 2-year-old champion Game Winner. Richard Mandella’s Santa Anita shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on the Baffert chalk and held on by a nose in a nice effort in his stakes debut. Game Winner lost nothing in defeat. Like his stablemate Improbable, he had to call an audible after the San Felipe was cancelled a week earlier, and all of the wet weather in California this winter messed with his training schedule. He just missed in a rock solid effort while more than eight lengths clear of show finisher Market King. Late runner Gunmetal Gray got going too late and ended up 4th, and was followed by Jersey Agenda, Captain Von Trapp, Laughing Fox, Parsimony, Kaziranga, and Our Braintrust.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders (3-22-19)
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Comments: We finally got to see Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion in the Rebel Stakes (G2), and he did not disappoint despite losing by a nose. He was supposed to kick off his sophomore campaign in the San Felipe Stakes on March 9, but that race was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He was forced to ship to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 16. Fellow California shipper Omaha Beach got the jump on him and won the battle, but Game Winner brushed off the rust and appears poised to move forward in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6. I am sure that Bob Baffert is not worried about losing a mile and a sixteenth prep in his first start after a layoff. He just needed to get a race into his talented runner and the Rebel Stakes was a means to an end. The goal is to peak on the first Saturday in May, and that may very well happen.
Derby Points (45)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s other unbeaten juvenile was also supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe, and he also ended up at Oaklawn Park on March 16. He competed in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2), and missed by a neck from the outside post while racing wide throughout under Drayden van Dyke. I fully expect him to be much fitter in his final Kentucky Derby prep in the Arkansas Derby (G1) on April 13. I would not be surprised to see both Baffert runners win their final Derby points races next month and head to Churchill Downs as the two favorites.
Derby Points (25)
(3) CODE OF HONOR (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 1:01.00 (1/6) at Payson Park on March 16.
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He is as talented as any sophomore in the land and is getting good at the right time.
Derby Points (54)
(4) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Latest Workout: 4f in 47.60 (3/31) at Fair Grounds on March 15.
Comments: He had two of the better looking points race victories this year in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He goes for a sweep of the Fair Grounds derby points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 23. He drew a better post in the LA Derby and figures to stalk the pace.
Derby Points (60)
(5) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.60 (2/15) at Payson Park on March 17.
Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still immature. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together. He will meet War of Will again in the Louisiana Derby, and he can turn the tables on that rival if he runs a more professional race. He will need pace help at Fair Grounds as well.
Derby Points (20)
(6) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Comments: Returned to the list after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs, and he sure seems like a mile and a quarter type.
Derby Points (50)
(7) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:02.40 (1/7) at Payson Park on March 22.
Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind a hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite in his stakes debut. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano.
Derby Points (5)
(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did enough to remain on my list. He ran well enough to earn one final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early.
Derby Points (10)
(9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.00 (2/11) at Golden Gate Fields on March 17.
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24. He drew post two at Sunland Park and should make his presence felt throughout if he handles dirt.
Derby Points (10)
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.76 (7/18) at Palm Beach Downs on March 15.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (10 points)
(11) SPINOFF (Hard Spun - Zaftig, by Gone West)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Werthheimer and Frere)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:00.59 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on March 16.
Comments: I have liked this one since he ran 3rd in the Saratoga Special (G2) in his second career start last summer. It was great to see him stretch out and improve in his romping Tampa Bay Downs return Feb. 22, and he finally shows up in a points race in the Louisiana Derby (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and should make his presence felt throughout at Fair Grounds on March 23.
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Roadster, (14) Omaha Beach, (15) Long Range Toddy, (16) Haikal, (17) Mucho Gusto, (18) Signalman, (19) Gunmetal Gray, (20) Instagrand
Article and by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Wednesday, March 20, 2019
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recap: Long Range Toddy Wins Rebel Stakes
Kentucky Derby 2019 contender Long Range Toddy ran down heavy favorite Improbable to win the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, March 16.
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Long Range Toddy has been a gem of consistency for trainer Steve Asmussen. After finishing 4th in his dirt sprint bow at Remington Park, he rattled off three straight wins at that venue including the Springboard Mile (Kentucky Derby points race) to end his juvenile campaign.
He has now run three times in 2019 at Oaklawn Park with a neck defeat in the Smarty Jones, a solid 3rd from post 10 in the Southwest (G3), and a neck victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2). He has accumulated 53 Kentucky Derby 2019 points, and that should be more than enough to secure a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Rebel Stakes (Division 1) Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19)
1st - Long Range Toddy - His tactical speed and inner post almost assured him a smooth trip, and his fitness edge allowed him to run down Improbable in deep stretch. This was a solid effort from a very consistent performer. The final time was 1:42.49.
2nd - Improbable - Did everything but win in a race he was forced to compete in after the cancellation of the San Felipe Stakes on March 9. He raced wide throughout from the outside post under Drayden Van Dyke, and he was a bit unlucky to lose after pulling clear by a length in the stretch. He is expected to return to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby on April 13, and he should be much fitter for that event.
3rd - Galilean - Did not have a great start under Flavien Prat and he had to hustle a bit early because of that mistake. Even a minor error can make all the difference at this level, and he battled on the pace throughout and weakened in late stretch. Not a bad effort in his first Derby points race but he needed to show a bit more.
4th - Extra Hope - Made an early move and went after the leaders under Mike Smith. Like Galilean, he hung in there until deep stretch before weakening late. This was not his first points race and he has just not developed enough at this stage.
5th - Easy Shot - Raced evenly throughout and was more than five lengths behind Extra Hope at the finish.
6th - Ninth Street - Was last through the first six furlongs and never made an impact.
7th - Classy John - Dueled on the lead through the opening six furlongs and definitely had a big impact on the pace. He was ultimately no match for the classier speed horses and retreated to last.
Article by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Long Range Toddy capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Long Range Toddy has been a gem of consistency for trainer Steve Asmussen. After finishing 4th in his dirt sprint bow at Remington Park, he rattled off three straight wins at that venue including the Springboard Mile (Kentucky Derby points race) to end his juvenile campaign.
He has now run three times in 2019 at Oaklawn Park with a neck defeat in the Smarty Jones, a solid 3rd from post 10 in the Southwest (G3), and a neck victory in the Rebel Stakes (G2). He has accumulated 53 Kentucky Derby 2019 points, and that should be more than enough to secure a spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Rebel Stakes (Division 1) Recap from Oaklawn Park (3-16-19)
1st - Long Range Toddy - His tactical speed and inner post almost assured him a smooth trip, and his fitness edge allowed him to run down Improbable in deep stretch. This was a solid effort from a very consistent performer. The final time was 1:42.49.
2nd - Improbable - Did everything but win in a race he was forced to compete in after the cancellation of the San Felipe Stakes on March 9. He raced wide throughout from the outside post under Drayden Van Dyke, and he was a bit unlucky to lose after pulling clear by a length in the stretch. He is expected to return to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby on April 13, and he should be much fitter for that event.
3rd - Galilean - Did not have a great start under Flavien Prat and he had to hustle a bit early because of that mistake. Even a minor error can make all the difference at this level, and he battled on the pace throughout and weakened in late stretch. Not a bad effort in his first Derby points race but he needed to show a bit more.
4th - Extra Hope - Made an early move and went after the leaders under Mike Smith. Like Galilean, he hung in there until deep stretch before weakening late. This was not his first points race and he has just not developed enough at this stage.
5th - Easy Shot - Raced evenly throughout and was more than five lengths behind Extra Hope at the finish.
6th - Ninth Street - Was last through the first six furlongs and never made an impact.
7th - Classy John - Dueled on the lead through the opening six furlongs and definitely had a big impact on the pace. He was ultimately no match for the classier speed horses and retreated to last.
Article by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Saturday, March 16, 2019
Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: Game Winner, Improbable Return in Rebel Stakes
The Road to Kentucky Derby 2019 features the return of my longtime top two contenders on Saturday, March 16. Game Winner and Improbable finally return to action in split divisions of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park.
Improbable went 3-for-3 as a juvenile including a sharp victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). Two-year-old champion Game Winner went 4-for-4 in 2018 and capped off his outstanding juvenile campaign with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Game Winner capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
OP 8 (G2 Rebel, 8.5f) #8 GALILEAN (3-1) deserves a shot in a Derby points race after dusting CA-bred stakes foes in his last pair (147, 146 Final Ratings). He will have to run a tad faster vs. better foes but the $600k son of Uncle Mo might be up to the challenge. He should be part of the pace and Prat is 12-for-27 with Hollendorfer. #9 Improbable (3-5) should win this if he is ready to go in his first start of the year (155 Final Rating in Los Al Futurity). Baffert usually dominates these Derby preps at Oaklawn and a win would be no surprise. He did have to alter his schedule after the San Felipe was canceled last week. He is just getting warmed up at 8.5f. #1 Extra Hope (6-1) might have been runner-up in the Los Al Futurity (G1) but Savagery blew the turn and forced him out, and he ended up 3rd behind Improbable and Mucho Gusto. He returned with a big optional claiming route win SA Jan 31 and looks ready to rejoin the stakes ranks. A ground saving stalking trip is expected and Mike Smith is 4-for-9 with Richard Mandella. In his last three dirt routes, he earned 129, 131, 138 Final Ratings, and will need to run a bit faster to win this. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/1-9, Exacta 1-9/8, Trifecta 1-8/1-8-9/1-8-9
OP 10 (G2 Rebel, 8.5f) #2 LAUGHING FOX (10-1) stretched out and won back-to-back local races on Jan 25 and Feb 18 (improved 98 FIRE, 130 CPR, 141 Final Rating). He can stalk or close for Asmussen and can compete here if he moves forward again in his third race after a layoff. His sire Union Rags was one of my favorites and my Derby & Belmont Stakes top choice. #5 Game Winner (4-5) went 4-for-4 last year (3 grade one wins - 146, 144, 140 Final Ratings) and Joel Rosario is 3-for-3 aboard the 2-year-old champ. The versatile colt is fresh and should be forwardly placed in his sophomore bow. Just like his stablemate Improbable, he had to alter his schedule after the San Felipe was canceled last week. #6 Omaha Beach (7-2) got over the hump in a romping maiden win on a wet track Feb. 2 (career best 99 FIRE + 138 Final Rating), and the light bulb has seemingly turned on. He fired a big Los Al bullet for this March 9 and should be forwardly placed under his new rider Mike Smith. #8 Gunmetal Gray (10-1) is the best finisher in the field and will probably finish somewhere in the top three. He finished 1-2 in three of his four points races around two turns and today’s rider Flavien Prat guided him to a place finish in the American Pharoah (G1) last year. He earned 129 & 134 Final Ratings in his last pair. The Plays: #2 to win, Exacta 2/5-6-8, Exacta 5-6-8/2, Trifecta 2-5-6/2-5-6/8
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Gotham Stakes (G3) Recap from Aqueduct (3-9-19) - Winner: Haikal
The fractions were 22.36, 44.02, and 1:09.23, and Haikal took full advantage of the pace collapse. He sure looks like a late running sprinter and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. Mind Control rallied for the place and also benefitted from fast fractions. He is a decent sort up to one mile but will probably struggle in longer races. Instagrand chased the pace in his first start since August 2018 and did well to land the show, but does not seem to be a Kentucky Derby horse at this stage. He should improve in his next start but he has never run over a route of ground and his stamina is a major question mark at this stage. Much Better tried to run them off their feet but the California shipper could not maintain his lead in the stretch and was edged for the show. Family Biz, Tikhvin Flew, Knicks Go, and Not That Brady trailed.
Tampa Bay Derby (G2) Recap from Tampa Bay Downs (3-9-19) - Winner: Tacitus
Yet another Derby points race with a fast pace (22.79, 45.85, 1:09.57, and Tacitus made his 3-year-old bow a winning one. This was not just his first start in four months, but this was his first try against winners, and the Bill Mott trainee sat in midpack and rolled home by a bit more than a length under Jose Ortiz. He owns a strong pedigree and should continue to show more. Outshine stalked the pace and was clearly second best for Todd Pletcher. He ran a quality race in his first attempt over a route of ground. Beaten favorite Win Win Win rallied wide to land the show and also ran well in his first start around two turns, while the top two finishers enjoyed better trips. Zenden set the pace and finished 4th, and was followed by Sir Winston, Dunph, Admire, Well Defined, The Right Path, Dream Maker, and Lord Dragon.
Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) Recap from Turfway Park (3-9-19) - Winner: Somelikeithotbrown
Somelikeithotbrown was aggressively handled by Tyler Gaffalione and was never seriously threatened in an easy 3-1/4 length front running victory as the strong favorite. He will get a chance to prove that he can handle conventional dirt in his final Derby prep. He is good on all-weather and turf, and I think turf will be his future. El Camino Real Derby hero Anothertwistafate is the more interesting all-weather/dirt Derby hopeful. Dynamic Racer chased the pace and tried hard throughout but was never catching the winner. Moonster rallied for the show and Five Star General faded to 4th. Dabo, Speed App, Counter Offer, Skywire, Curlin Gray, Twelfthofneverland, and Baytown Jimbo completed the order of finish.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Latest Workout: 5f in 59.80 (12/25) at Los Alamitos on March 10.
Comments: It has been a long time since we have seen Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion, and the wait is finally over. He was supposed to return in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 9, but that race was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He has shipped to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 16, and he is the 4-5 morning line favorite.
Derby Points (30)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Latest Workout: 5f in 59.20 (6/25) at Los Alamitos on March 10.
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s unbeaten colt was supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe and has also shipped to Oaklawn Park for the Rebel (first division). He got better as distances increased in a trio of 2018 starts. In his final start as a 2-year-old, he was the strong favorite in the Lost Alamitos Futurity (G1) on Dec. 8, and he stalked the pace and won for fun from the inside post at a mile and a sixteenth. He really kicked it in high gear in late stretch in that race and seems to want more ground. He is the strong 3-5 morning line favorite and will break from the outside post at Oaklawn Park on March 16.
Derby Points (10)
(3) CODE OF HONOR (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am not sure how effective he will be beyond a mile and a sixteenth but he is getting good at the right time and will get a chance to show his stamina in his final Derby prep at a mile and an eighth.
Derby Points (54)
(4) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Latest Workout: 4f in 47.60 (3/31) at Fair Grounds on March 15.
Comments: He had two of the better looking points race victories this year in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks and months. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He goes for a sweep of the Fair Grounds derby points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 23.
Derby Points (60)
(5) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 1:02.40 (1/5) at Payson Park on March 10.
Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still green. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together. He will meet War of Will again in the Louisiana Derby, and he can turn the tables on that rival if he runs a more professional race.
Derby Points (20)
(6) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Comments: Returns to the list for the second time after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs.
Derby Points (50)
(7) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 4f in 50.20 (12/26) at Payson Park on March 15.
Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano.
Derby Points (5)
(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did enough to remain on my list. He ran well enough to earn one final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early.
Derby Points (10)
(9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.00 (4/67) at Golden Gate Fields on March 10.
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24.
Derby Points (10)
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.76 (7/18) at Palm Beach Downs on March 15.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (10 points)
(11) GUNMETAL GRAY (Exchange Rate - Classofsixtythree, by Include)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (West Point Thoroughbreds and Jerry Hollendorfer)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:12.60 (7/10) at Los Alamitos on March 9.
Comments: Has competed in four points races over a route of ground with a win in the Sham (G3) and runner-up finishes in the American Pharoah (G1) and Robert Lewis (G3). I thought that his Robert Lewis runner-up finish was his best race to date. He proved that he could handle a wet track that day and showed nice late interest over a speed favoring surface. I still think that he is a cut below the best at this stage but he does have some stamina and a decent late kick. He was slated to go in the San Felipe but missing that race should not hurt him too much. He has already raced six times overall and twice this year. Look for him late in the second division of the Rebel Stakes and he has a very good shot to hit the board.
Derby Points (18)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Roadster, (14) Spinoff, (15) Extra Hope, (16) Haikal, (17) Mucho Gusto, (18) Signalman, (19) Tax, (20) Instagrand
Kentucky Derby 2019 blog by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
Improbable went 3-for-3 as a juvenile including a sharp victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1). Two-year-old champion Game Winner went 4-for-4 in 2018 and capped off his outstanding juvenile campaign with a win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Game Winner capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis
OP 8 (G2 Rebel, 8.5f) #8 GALILEAN (3-1) deserves a shot in a Derby points race after dusting CA-bred stakes foes in his last pair (147, 146 Final Ratings). He will have to run a tad faster vs. better foes but the $600k son of Uncle Mo might be up to the challenge. He should be part of the pace and Prat is 12-for-27 with Hollendorfer. #9 Improbable (3-5) should win this if he is ready to go in his first start of the year (155 Final Rating in Los Al Futurity). Baffert usually dominates these Derby preps at Oaklawn and a win would be no surprise. He did have to alter his schedule after the San Felipe was canceled last week. He is just getting warmed up at 8.5f. #1 Extra Hope (6-1) might have been runner-up in the Los Al Futurity (G1) but Savagery blew the turn and forced him out, and he ended up 3rd behind Improbable and Mucho Gusto. He returned with a big optional claiming route win SA Jan 31 and looks ready to rejoin the stakes ranks. A ground saving stalking trip is expected and Mike Smith is 4-for-9 with Richard Mandella. In his last three dirt routes, he earned 129, 131, 138 Final Ratings, and will need to run a bit faster to win this. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/1-9, Exacta 1-9/8, Trifecta 1-8/1-8-9/1-8-9
OP 10 (G2 Rebel, 8.5f) #2 LAUGHING FOX (10-1) stretched out and won back-to-back local races on Jan 25 and Feb 18 (improved 98 FIRE, 130 CPR, 141 Final Rating). He can stalk or close for Asmussen and can compete here if he moves forward again in his third race after a layoff. His sire Union Rags was one of my favorites and my Derby & Belmont Stakes top choice. #5 Game Winner (4-5) went 4-for-4 last year (3 grade one wins - 146, 144, 140 Final Ratings) and Joel Rosario is 3-for-3 aboard the 2-year-old champ. The versatile colt is fresh and should be forwardly placed in his sophomore bow. Just like his stablemate Improbable, he had to alter his schedule after the San Felipe was canceled last week. #6 Omaha Beach (7-2) got over the hump in a romping maiden win on a wet track Feb. 2 (career best 99 FIRE + 138 Final Rating), and the light bulb has seemingly turned on. He fired a big Los Al bullet for this March 9 and should be forwardly placed under his new rider Mike Smith. #8 Gunmetal Gray (10-1) is the best finisher in the field and will probably finish somewhere in the top three. He finished 1-2 in three of his four points races around two turns and today’s rider Flavien Prat guided him to a place finish in the American Pharoah (G1) last year. He earned 129 & 134 Final Ratings in his last pair. The Plays: #2 to win, Exacta 2/5-6-8, Exacta 5-6-8/2, Trifecta 2-5-6/2-5-6/8
Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps
Gotham Stakes (G3) Recap from Aqueduct (3-9-19) - Winner: Haikal
The fractions were 22.36, 44.02, and 1:09.23, and Haikal took full advantage of the pace collapse. He sure looks like a late running sprinter and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. Mind Control rallied for the place and also benefitted from fast fractions. He is a decent sort up to one mile but will probably struggle in longer races. Instagrand chased the pace in his first start since August 2018 and did well to land the show, but does not seem to be a Kentucky Derby horse at this stage. He should improve in his next start but he has never run over a route of ground and his stamina is a major question mark at this stage. Much Better tried to run them off their feet but the California shipper could not maintain his lead in the stretch and was edged for the show. Family Biz, Tikhvin Flew, Knicks Go, and Not That Brady trailed.
Tampa Bay Derby (G2) Recap from Tampa Bay Downs (3-9-19) - Winner: Tacitus
Yet another Derby points race with a fast pace (22.79, 45.85, 1:09.57, and Tacitus made his 3-year-old bow a winning one. This was not just his first start in four months, but this was his first try against winners, and the Bill Mott trainee sat in midpack and rolled home by a bit more than a length under Jose Ortiz. He owns a strong pedigree and should continue to show more. Outshine stalked the pace and was clearly second best for Todd Pletcher. He ran a quality race in his first attempt over a route of ground. Beaten favorite Win Win Win rallied wide to land the show and also ran well in his first start around two turns, while the top two finishers enjoyed better trips. Zenden set the pace and finished 4th, and was followed by Sir Winston, Dunph, Admire, Well Defined, The Right Path, Dream Maker, and Lord Dragon.
Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) Recap from Turfway Park (3-9-19) - Winner: Somelikeithotbrown
Somelikeithotbrown was aggressively handled by Tyler Gaffalione and was never seriously threatened in an easy 3-1/4 length front running victory as the strong favorite. He will get a chance to prove that he can handle conventional dirt in his final Derby prep. He is good on all-weather and turf, and I think turf will be his future. El Camino Real Derby hero Anothertwistafate is the more interesting all-weather/dirt Derby hopeful. Dynamic Racer chased the pace and tried hard throughout but was never catching the winner. Moonster rallied for the show and Five Star General faded to 4th. Dabo, Speed App, Counter Offer, Skywire, Curlin Gray, Twelfthofneverland, and Baytown Jimbo completed the order of finish.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2019 Contenders
(1) GAME WINNER (Candy Ride - Indyan Giving, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Gary and Mary West)
Latest Workout: 5f in 59.80 (12/25) at Los Alamitos on March 10.
Comments: It has been a long time since we have seen Bob Baffert’s two-year-old champion, and the wait is finally over. He was supposed to return in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 9, but that race was scrapped after the Santa Anita main track was closed due to safely concerns. He has shipped to Oaklawn Park for his sophomore debut in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) on March 16, and he is the 4-5 morning line favorite.
Derby Points (30)
(2) IMPROBABLE (City Zip - Rare Event, by A. P. Indy)
Latest Workout: 5f in 59.20 (6/25) at Los Alamitos on March 10.
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Comments: Bob Baffert’s unbeaten colt was supposed to start his campaign in the San Felipe and has also shipped to Oaklawn Park for the Rebel (first division). He got better as distances increased in a trio of 2018 starts. In his final start as a 2-year-old, he was the strong favorite in the Lost Alamitos Futurity (G1) on Dec. 8, and he stalked the pace and won for fun from the inside post at a mile and a sixteenth. He really kicked it in high gear in late stretch in that race and seems to want more ground. He is the strong 3-5 morning line favorite and will break from the outside post at Oaklawn Park on March 16.
Derby Points (10)
(3) CODE OF HONOR (Noble Mission, Reunited, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Shug McGaughey) - Owner (William S. Farish)
Comments: Original “exceptional eleven” member returned to the list after bouncing back in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 2. He was as high as #2 on my list in the past, and in the FOY, he save ground chasing fast fractions and was always in a good tactical spot under John Velazquez. He safely held off late runner Bourbon War to win by a bit less than a length. I like the versatility he has shown in four career starts. He flashed sharp early speed right out of the gate in his winning debut at Saratoga Aug. 18. He made his second career start in the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park, and he ran a big race to land the place after stumbling badly at the start. In that one-turn mile, he made a sustained run from last and rallied five-wide in the stretch to finish a clear 2nd. He failed to put his best foot forward in his first start of the year in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, but his other three efforts were spot-on and he has already earned enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am not sure how effective he will be beyond a mile and a sixteenth but he is getting good at the right time and will get a chance to show his stamina in his final Derby prep at a mile and an eighth.
Derby Points (54)
(4) WAR OF WILL (War Front - Visions of Clarity, by Sadler’s Wells)
Trainer (Mark Casse) - Owner (Gary Barber)
Latest Workout: 4f in 47.60 (3/31) at Fair Grounds on March 15.
Comments: He had two of the better looking points race victories this year in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2). He owns early-pressing versatility and used his speed to secure a nice spot from a difficult outside post in the Risen Star. Other than talented but immature Country House, there was not much talent behind him in those two stakes wins at Fair Grounds, and he did not run much faster than front running Rachel Alexandra (G2) winner Serengeti Empress. He is a solid early season Derby contender but I think better and faster horses will emerge in the coming weeks and months. Plus, the Fair Grounds road to the Kentucky Derby has not been productive over the years. He has already secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. He goes for a sweep of the Fair Grounds derby points races in the Louisiana Derby (G2) on March 23.
Derby Points (60)
(5) COUNTRY HOUSE (Lookin At Lucky - Quake Lake, by War Chant)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Shields and McFadden)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in 1:02.40 (1/5) at Payson Park on March 10.
Comments: I like the progress he made in each of his four starts but he is still green. He was clearly second best to Kentucky Wildcat in his final juvenile start on 12-1-18, and that now injured foe returned to finish a good 2nd in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) on Feb. 9. In his sophomore debut at Gulfstream on Jan. 17, he overcame a terrible start and slow pace to win going away. In the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, he broke slow again and was all over the place in the stretch. He probably would have beaten War of Will if he broke better and was able to maintain a straight line in the lane, but he did well to finish 2nd despite making multiple mistakes. Look out if/when he puts it all together. He will meet War of Will again in the Louisiana Derby, and he can turn the tables on that rival if he runs a more professional race.
Derby Points (20)
(6) TACITUS (Tapit - Close Hatches, by First Defence)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Comments: Returns to the list for the second time after winning the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) in his sophomore debut. He owns a strong pedigree and has definitely improved from age two to three. He should continue to develop for Bill Mott and has secured enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby. I am looking forward to his final Derby prep at nine furlongs.
Derby Points (50)
(7) HIDDEN SCROLL (Hard Spun - Sheba Queen, by Empire Maker)
Trainer (William Mott) - Owner (Juddmonte Farms, Inc.)
Latest Workout: 4f in 50.20 (12/26) at Payson Park on March 15.
Comments: Was sensational in his career debut in the fourth race at Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Jan. 26. In that one mile special weight affair, he went straight to the front from the inside post under jockey Joel Rosario and widened his advantage throughout. He crossed the finish line at least fourteen lengths in front of his nearest rival High Amplitude (Chad Brown first timer), and he stopped the clock in a swift 1:34.82. That stellar effort earned him a shot in the Fountain of Youth (G2) on March 2, but his inexperience was on full display. Instead of settling in behind hopelessly overmatched outsider, he went after that one early, set the pace, and paid the price late. He set fast fractions and just missed holding the show as the beaten favorite. He is fast and talented but needs to ration his speed better in his next start. The Florida Derby is his next start and he will get a rider switch from Joel Rosario to Javier Castellano.
Derby Points (5)
(8) WIN WIN WIN (Hat Trick - Miss Smarty Pants, by Smarty Jones)
Trainer (Michael Trombetta) - Owner (Live Oak Plantation)
Comments: Stretched out and finished a wide 3rd as the beaten favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2), and he did enough to remain on my list. He ran well enough to earn one final shot in a Kentucky Derby qualifying event, but he will have to run faster next time. We know he is a very talented sprinter, but I am just not sure how far he really wants to go. He could easily improve in his second try around two turns, especially if he is able to save more ground and get into a forward position early.
Derby Points (10)
(9) ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (Scat Daddy - Imprecation, by First Defence)
Trainer (Blaine Wright) - Owner (Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd.)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.00 (4/67) at Golden Gate Fields on March 10.
Comments: He was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy has now won his last three all-weather routes by a combined sixteen lengths. He has a nice combination of speed and stamina and we will learn more when he tries conventional dirt in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24.
Derby Points (10)
(10) VEKOMA (Candy Ride - Mona de Momma, by Speightstown)
Trainer (George Weaver) - Owner (R.A. Hill Stable and Gatsas Stables)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.76 (7/18) at Palm Beach Downs on March 15.
Comments: Showed excellent tactical speed and cruised home in both juvenile starts including a win in the Nashua (G3) at one mile Nov. 4. He made his sophomore debut in the Fountain of Youth and he was in the hunt throughout and ended up a decent 3rd. I am not sure how far he really wants to go but he should improve in his final Derby prep.
Derby Points (10 points)
(11) GUNMETAL GRAY (Exchange Rate - Classofsixtythree, by Include)
Trainer (Jerry Hollendorfer) - Owner (West Point Thoroughbreds and Jerry Hollendorfer)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:12.60 (7/10) at Los Alamitos on March 9.
Comments: Has competed in four points races over a route of ground with a win in the Sham (G3) and runner-up finishes in the American Pharoah (G1) and Robert Lewis (G3). I thought that his Robert Lewis runner-up finish was his best race to date. He proved that he could handle a wet track that day and showed nice late interest over a speed favoring surface. I still think that he is a cut below the best at this stage but he does have some stamina and a decent late kick. He was slated to go in the San Felipe but missing that race should not hurt him too much. He has already raced six times overall and twice this year. Look for him late in the second division of the Rebel Stakes and he has a very good shot to hit the board.
Derby Points (18)
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Bourbon War, (13) Roadster, (14) Spinoff, (15) Extra Hope, (16) Haikal, (17) Mucho Gusto, (18) Signalman, (19) Tax, (20) Instagrand
Kentucky Derby 2019 blog by Jarrod Horak
You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.
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