Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: Mike Smith to Ride Derby Favorite Omaha Beach at Churchill Downs

All of the Kentucky Derby 2019 points races have been run and now were are counting down to the first Saturday in May. Omaha Beach won the final prep at Oaklawn Park in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and is your likely favorite on the first Saturday in May. 

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Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps


Lexington Stakes (G3) Recap (4-13-19) - Winner: Owendale ($27.40) 


Owendale made a wide, sweeping move from off the pace and took down top honors by a bit less than two lengths. He was an early season Derby buzz horse after a fast allowance route win at Fair Grounds in January. He failed his first points test in the Risen Star (G2), and bounced back with a nice victory in this event. He picked up 20 Derby points but that is not nearly enough to make the field. He figures to target the Preakness Stakes (G1) and clearly has some talent. The Lexington Stakes (G3) was basically a win and you’re in for Anothertwsitafate, and he fell a length and three-quarters short in a solid place finish. In his start prior to the Lexington, he switched to dirt, stalked the pace, and surged in the lane to miss by a neck in the Sunland Derby (G3). In those two races, he was a bit uncomfortable chasing the pace in and amongst horses, but he fought hard throughout both times despite less than ideal circumstances. I think he is best setting the pace or stalking outside and in the clear, and he is currently on the outside looking in at #23 on the Derby points list. Earlier this winter, he was excellent in the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate Fields on all-weather footing, and that victory earned him an automatic berth in the Preakness Stakes (G1). The $360k son of Scat Daddy needs a few defections to get into the Derby, and the best thing for him might be missing that race and waiting for the Preakness. The Derby would be his third start in six weeks. If he waits for the Preakness, he would have five weeks between races, and he is talented enough to make some noise in Baltimore. Sueno was also on the points bubble and needed a win here, but all he could manage was a clear place finish. The Keith Desormeaux trainee is consistent but a cut or two below the top 3-year-olds. Knicks Go attended the pace and finished 4th, and was followed by Shang, Roiland, Harvey Wallbanger, Zenden, Hawaiian Noises, and Chase the Ghost. 


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Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recap: Derby Favorite Omaha Beach Wins Arkansas Derby

​Mud-loving Omaha Beach got the jump on Improbable and won the last big 100 point Kentucky Derby 2019 prep race by a length. That is the second time that he shipped to Oaklawn Park and took down a Bob Baffert runner. Last month, he nipped Game Winner by a nose in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2). 

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Kentucky Derby 2019 Prep Race Video: Arkansas Derby & Lexington Stakes

Check out my top win contenders for the Arkansas Derby & Lexington Stakes in my Today's Racing Digest video below!

Kentucky Derby 2019 Blog: End of the Line for Derby Points Races

This is the final week for points races on the Road to Kentucky Derby 2019. Omaha Beach and Improbable are the two favorites in the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park on Saturday, April 13, and Anothertwistafate and Sueno square off in the Lexington Stakes (G3) on the same day at Keeneland.   

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Omaha Beach capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.


Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Analysis for Saturday (4-13-19)


KEE 9 (G3 Lexington, 8.5f) #4 ANOTHERTWISTAFATE (2-1) proved that he could handle dirt in a surging place finish in the Sunland Derby (G3) March 24 (137 CPR, 155 Pace Rating, 149 Final Rating). I like his early-pressing versatility and Castellano should have options. He drilled a Sunland bullet for this April 4 and has the talent to make short work of this group. #3 Sueno (5-1) fired trifecta shots in all six starts including a trio of underneath finishes in Derby points races (2nd in G3 Sham, 2nd in G3 Southwest, 3rd in G2 LA Derby). He projects another decent tactical trip under Lanerie. #5 Harvey Wallbanger (7-2) and #10 Roiland (15-1) did not get much pace help in the Florida Derby (G1) and LA Derby (G2) in their last starts. I can see one or both hitting the board if the pace heats up. The Plays: #4 to win, Exacta 4-3, Trifecta Key 4/3-5-10 


OP 11 (G1 Arkansas Derby, 9f) #8 COUNTRY HOUSE (12-1) is slowly improving for Mott and this would be a great time to put it all together. Rosario might be a good fit for this one and there is pace to chase today. He was off slow and wide in the LA Derby (G2), and he flattened out in the lane after putting in a big run around the far turn (improved 106 FIRE). Plus, the speed did not come back that day, but it might in this spot. #3 Omaha Beach (2-1) has put in all together in his last pair and gamely beat Game Winner in the second division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) March 16. He is firing bullets for this and could easily score again. #1 Improbable (8-5) adds blinkers and goes from the outside post in the Rebel Stakes (G2) to the rail in this longer event. He won all three starts last year from inner posts including a razor sharp score from the rail in the Los Al Futurity (G1). He drilled a SA bullet for this April 5. #11 Long Range Toddy (5-1) always finishes in the top three in these points races, He will have to work out a trip from the outside post and he upset Improbable in the first division of the Rebel Stakes (G2) under today’s rider Jon Court March 16. #7 Galilean (10-1) removes blinkers after an okay 3rd in the 1st division of the Rebel Stakes (G2). He figures to stalk the pace under Prat. #5 Laughing Fox (20-1) was pinched at the start and never got involved vs. Omaha Beach last time. He fired a bullet in the local mud April 8 and deserves another chance in the stakes ranks. The Plays: #8 to win, Exacta 8/1-3, Exacta 1-3/8, Superfecta 8/1-3/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/8/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/1-3-11/8/1-3-5-7-11, Superfecta 1-3/1-3-11/1-3-5-7-11/8


Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recaps  


Blue Grass Stakes (G2) Recap (4-6-19) - Winner: Vekoma ($4.80)


Vekoma did not disappoint as the favorite in his final Derby prep. He chased the pace from 2nd, took the lead, and rode the speed bias to an easy 3-1/2 length victory. He was good as a juvenile and has improved this year. He will have to improve again to compete for a top prize on the first Saturday in May. Win Win Win rallied to grab the place in the final strides and has also secured his spot in the Derby. Signalman stalked the pace and just missed the place. He finished in the top three in four of his five points races and is #18 on the Derby points list. Somelikeithotbrown battled on the pace and weakened late to finish 4th. He is currently #21 on the points list (30 points) and is on the outside looking in. Chess Chief, So Alive, Sir Winston, Admire, Moonster, Lucky Lee, Market King, Aquadini, Dream Maker, and Parsimony completed the order of finish. 

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Kentucky Derby 2019 Video Series: Arkansas Derby Runners Country House and Galilean

My Kentucky Derby 2019 under the radar video series continues with the Arkansas Derby (G1). In this video, I take a look at Country House, Galilean, and Laughing Fox.

Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Country House capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.

Video by Jarrod Horak

You can read all of my Derby blogs on my Kentucky Derby 2019 page, and my annual Triple Crown full card analysis from Churchill Downs, Pimlico Race Course, and Belmont Park will be available on my Runaway Horse Sales page later this spring.