3/30/2019
Race 14: Gr. I Florida Derby (3yr M, 1-1/8 Mile Dirt, $1,000,000)
Available Points: 100-40-20-10
Weather: High in 70’s to low 80’s with little chance of precipitation
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Bourbon War capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Saturday’s $1,000,000 Florida Derby will be the final prep race at Gulfstream for Kentucky Derby 2019. In a year that has yet to yield a clear-cut favorite for the Derby, this race could shape up to be a pivotal one leading up to the first Saturday in May. In years past this race has been an important prep as horses like Always Dreaming, Nyquist, and Orb all went on to win the Derby after their Florida Derby score. A field of 11 will take to the starting gate with 170 total qualifying points on the line so without further ado, let’s look at the contenders:
2019 Florida Derby Contenders
1- Hidden Scroll
Javier Castellano
Bill Mott
5-2
2 - Current
Manny Franco
Todd Pletcher
15-1
3 - Harvey Wallbanger
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Kenny McPeek
15-1
4 - Bourbon War
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Mark Hennig
7-2
5 - Everfast
Chris Landeros
Dale Romans
20-1
6 - Hard Belle
Jose Batista
Jamie Mejia
50-1
7 - Maximum Security
Luis Saez
Jason Servis
9-2
8 - Bodexpress
Nik Juarez
Gustavo Delgado
30-1
9 - Code of Honor
John Velazquez
Shug McGaughey
3-1
10 - Union’s Destiny
Leonel Reyes
Juan Avila
30-1
11 - Garter and Tie
Jeffrey Sanchez
Ralph Nicks
15-1
#1 – Hidden Scroll: Broke his maiden first time out back here on January 26th in impressive fashion with a gate to wire 14 length romp over a sloppy track. Mott moved him right up to the graded stakes ranks with a start in the Gr. II Fountain of Youth where the Hard Spun colt faded to fourth down the lane after setting fast early fractions. Given how fast he ran during the opening stages, it was another solid performance considering it was only his second start. Hidden Scroll only lost by about three lengths to Code of Honor so he should be more tuned up for this performance on Saturday. Mott will make a rider change to Javier Castellano and if he can get Hidden Scroll to tone it down a bit in the early stages he should be right there at the end.
#2 – Current: Pletcher will send out Current who has made five starts over the grass and comes into this race with a 6-2-0-2 record. The son of Curlin won the Gr. III Bourbon Stakes back in October at Keeneland (third start) where he sat at the back of the pack before making a strong run down the stretch. He got up to win by a nose over some quality horses in War of Will and Henley’s Joy int hat effort. He does have one start over the dirt which came in the Gr. II Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill back in late November. That race was over a sloppy surface so he could improve on a fast track, but he’ll need to take a step forward from a speed figure standpoint to compete with this group. This will be his second start of the year and his breeding does suggest the surface and the distance should not be a problem. Interesting horse and might be one to consider in the exotics.
#3 – Harvey Wallbanger: The longshot winner of the Gr. II Holy Bull back here in early February skipped the Fountain of Youth and will make his second start of 2019. Harvey Wallbanger has never been out of the exacta in five career starts and does have some nice back class when looking at his past foes. Last time out in the Gr. II Holy Bull, the son of Congrats sat in last for the early stages before making a strong move up the rail entering the final turn. He drove through tight quarters in doing so and the more I watch his last race the more impressed I get. He’ll need a fast pace to close into but with Hidden Scroll and Maximum Security in here he may just get it. One to include in your tickets.
#4 – Bourbon War: Jumped on this guy’s bandwagon after his two-length score in an optional claiming race back here on January 18th after encountering some trouble in the early stages. Cutting Humor finished second in that race who recently came back to win the Gr. III Sunland Park Derby last weekend in track record setting fashion. He followed that up with a strong second place finish in the Gr. II Fountain of Youth Stakes in which he finished about three-quarters of a length behind Honor Code. I believe he’ll like the added distance and I think Ortiz will have him closer to the pace on Saturday. Strong win contender.
#5 – Everfast: Comes into this race with eight career starts with one victory, one second and one third place finish. The son of Take Charge Indy ran a career best when finishing second in the Gr. II Holy Bull behind Harvey Wallbanger but that performance seems like an anomaly considering his other races. Landeros should have him in good position behind the front runners but he’ll need to take a drastic step forward to make some noise again.
#6 – Hard Belle: Has mostly ran in sprint races thus far with his longest coming at one mile over the dirt in which he finished a distant third last December, and the other coming in a 1-1/16th contest over the turf in the Gr. III Palm Beach Stakes. Jose Batista will get the mount for trainer Jaime Mejia and he should be a pace factor come Saturday. Will pass on him here.
#7 – Maximum Security: One of the outliers in this race is the Jason Servis trainee in Maximum Security. He is three for three in his early career, all wins coming in sprint races so he will be stretching out for the first time. His sire won the BC Juvenile back in 2013 and his dam, Lil Indy was a miler on her best day, so I am unsure if he’ll like the 9F distance. He takes a huge step up from a competition standpoint, but his early running style could allow him to hang in for a piece if Hidden Scroll does not go with him early. I will take the wait and see approach with this one so will look elsewhere in this spot.
#8 – Bodexpress: The son of Bodemeister will get his second try routing with his first attempt resulting in a distant fourth place finish over the slop back here on January 26th. Hidden Scroll was the victor that day so you may excuse his effort as the surface may not have been to his liking. This one is still a maiden however and I don’t see him beating the likes of this group. Nik Juarez will be in the saddle once again and I see them sitting no further than five lengths off the speed horses in the early stages. Could be another one to include in the exotics.
#9 – Code of Honor: Will make his third start of 2019 for trainer Shug McGaughey who seems like a different horse after his fourth-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes back here in early January. Since then, he came back to win the Gr. II Fountain of Youth Stakes in which he was able to hold of the late charge of Bourbon War. In the Fountain of Youth, Velazquez was able to grab good position down on the rail in which the pair was fifth for most of the backstretch. He began to pick up steam entering the final turn and had enough to cross the wire first, but his stride was shortening a bit approaching the wire and if the race was any further Bourbon War would have got him. Given this will be his second start off the layoff maybe he’ll be more fit and be able to maintain his form for the extra half furlong. Should be one to include on your tickets however I am still not 100% sold on this guy for the Derby.
#10 – Union’s Destiny: Steadily improving type for Juan Avila who finished sixth in the Gr. II Fountain of Youth back here on March second. He took off from post 11 in that race and went super wide into the first turn but with a similar position I am not sure he’ll get a much better set-up. Would not be surprised to see Reyes drop back and move him closer to the rail entering the first turn and being his second start of 2019, an improvement would not be out of the question. His sire, Union Rags won the Belmont Stakes back in 2012 and his dam, Ms Anna Destiny was an ungraded stakes winner sprinting so it will be interesting to see how the extra distance treats him. I think he’s up against it in this spot, but I see this one improving as the year goes on. I see him finishing fourth through sixth here.
#11 – Garter and Tie: The Ralph Nicks trainee will be getting the blinkers off for the first time in his eight-race career and does have a dreadful post given the short run into the first turn. It will be interesting to see what Sanchez does out of the gate as he must gun him to the front or pull up and move towards the rail to have any shot. His last start came in the Gr. II Holy Bull in which he took up running at the back of the pack. He managed to make up some ground for a sixth-place finish in which he was only beaten by five lengths. Will need to take a big step up to compete with the best in this spot.
Top Four: 4 – 3 – 1 - 9
About Josh:
Originally from Upstate New York, Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".
Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.
Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).
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