4/6/2019
Race 10: Gr. II Wood Memorial Stakes (3yr M, 1-1/8th Mile Dirt, $750,000)
Available Points: 100-40-20-10
Weather: Possible high into the 60s with about 20% of precipitation. It is supposed to rain for much of the day on Friday.
The $750,000 Gr. II Wood Memorial will feature 11 runners and 170 Kentucky Derby 2019 qualifying points on the line. There has been a slew of upsets on the Derby trail this year so there could be another shake up if that trend continues. Two horses in here already have enough points for the Derby (Tacitus and Haikal) so these others will have to put their best hoof forward to make it to the first Saturday in May.
Without further ado, let’s look at the contenders:
2019 Wood Memorial Contenders
1 - Tax
Junior Alvarado
Danny Gargan
9-2
2 - Tacitus
Jose Ortiz
Bill Mott
5-2
3 - Hoffa’s Union
Dylan Davis
Mark Casse
6-1
4 - Haikal
Rajiv Maragh
Kiaran McLaughlin
7-2
5 - Final Jeopardy
Manny Franco
Jason Servis
8-1
6 - Overdeliver
Kendrick Carmouche
Todd Pletcher
20-1
7 - Not That Brady
Reylu Gutierrez
Rudy Rodriguez
20-1
8 - Grumps Little Tots
Jose Lezcano
Jason Servis
30-1
9 - Math Wizard
Eric Cancel
Saffie Joseph
30-1
10 - Outshine
John Velazquez
Todd Pletcher
6-1
11 - Joevia
Nik Juarez
Greg Sacco
30-1
#1 – Tax: The son of Arch comes into this race with a 4-2-1-1 record and just over $185K in career earnings. The dark bay gelding started his career in the maiden claiming ranks under Ben Colebrook and was picked up by Danny Gargan back in October. Last time out in the Gr. II Withers, Tax had a slight stumble out of the gate but rebounded quickly to be forwardly placed down on the rail. At the top of the stretch he continued to make up ground down on the rail and it looked like he might get closed off by Not That Brady but the leader moved out just enough for Tax to get by and hold on by a head. This will be the third time Tax will try the 9F distance so that should not be a problem however he does need a top four finish to qualify for the Derby. Currently, he sits in 25th with 12 points and if he wants to guarantee his spot a second or third place finish will be needed.
#2 – Tacitus: Will make his second start of 2019 with his most recent start coming March 9th in the Gr. II Tampa Bay Derby. He was able to find room on the rail down the stretch and finished very nicely under Jose Ortiz. The son of Tapit already has 50 points and sits in 9th on the Derby leaderboard so his spot is already locked up. I’d like to see a good finish and him lengthening his stride approaching the wire. If he does that, I believe he’ll be a solid bet come Derby day. Strong win contender.
#3 – Hoffa’s Union: A bit of an unknown compared to the rest of this group as he only has one start under his belt which came in an 8.5F gate to wire performance back in late February down at Laurel. The gelding by Union Rags has a nice pedigree so I don’t think the distance should be a problem however he is stepping up in class here after his maiden breaking score. He’ll be up on the pace, if not setting it under Dylan Davis and with Mark Casse as the trainer you cannot discount this guy. Consider using in the exotics.
#4 – Haikal: Won the Gr. III Gotham Stakes back here on March 9th in which he was able to close into a fast pace from the early stages. Midway down the stretch it looked like he was dead in the water but the front three were shortening their strides and Rajiv Maragh was able to get the son of Daaher up to win by a length at the wire. The time was solid as he crossed the wire in 1:35 for the 8F distance but I am still not sure if he wants to go much longer. As with Tacitcus, he has 50 points, so his Derby ticket is already punched. Haikal has won three straight races and has been steadily improving in all his races and if the pace is fast enough, he could be flying home late again.
#5 – Final Jeopardy: Coming from the same connections that got Maximum Security home in the Gr. I Florida Derby last week, Final Jeopardy has two wins and one third place finish from three starts. He will be trying the 9F distance for the first time and being out of Street Sense by an Unbridled’s Song mare Addison Run I feel this should be within his wheelhouse. He’s shown some versatility in all three starts but will likely be placed mid pack during the early stages. Manny Franco will be in the saddle and with Servis, the duo has won at a 43% clip in the last 60 days (from seven starts).
#6 – Overdeliver: One of two Todd Pletcher runners and this one will have Kendrick Carmouche in the irons. I imagine this one will be forwardly placed as Outshine looks to be more of a pace horse so this one could be setting it up for his stablemate. Last time out, he finished second behind Win Win Win who is running in the Blue Grass down at Keeneland and two races back he beat Bodexpress who finished second in the Florida Derby last week. His sire, Overanalyze won twice at the 9F distance and finished third in another so the distance should not be a problem. This will only be his third career start and first since January 19th.
#7 – Not That Brady: This one was under a nice progression before finishing last in the Gr. III Gotham Stakes back here on March 9th. He took off from the seven post that day and had to go wide into the first turn so him not getting to the front could have thrown him off. Two races back, he finished right behind Tax in the Gr. III Withers at this distance so a rebound effort would not be out of the question. Look for Gutierrez to have him forwardly placed during the early stages.
#8 – Grumps Little Tots: Also trained by Jason Servis, the son of Sky Mesa has yet to finish off the board in four starts. He broke his maiden last time out going 8F on February 18th, but the time was rather slow, so I feel he’ll be up against it on Saturday. Jose Lezcano will get the mount as Franco opts to ride Final Jeopardy so that could be a telling sign.
#9 – Math Wizard: Comes into this race with a 7-2-1-2 record with five of those starts coming in the claiming ranks. He did finish behind Maximum Security last December and then came right back to break his maiden by six lengths in the following race. This is another one who likes to be forwardly placed although he did rally for second in his last start from last place (six horse field). The son of Algorithms will be trying the 9F distance for the first time and from his past competition I think the odds are against him. Will look elsewhere.
#10 – Outshine: Ran a solid second behind Tacitus in the Gr. II Tampa Bay Derby under Joel Rosario last time out. He gets Johnny V back and with Pletcher’s recent Derby success he could be peaking at the right time. His dam, Life Lesson was mostly a sprinter but being out of Malibu Moon he may be able to get the distance. This one will be off the pace in the early stages and will need fast fractions to make a late run. Outshine currently sits in 22nd on the leaderboard with 20 points so a second or third would be needed for him to make it to the Derby. Can’t discount him in this spot.
#11 – Joevia: The Greg Sacco trainee has only raced three times and has yet to finish out of the exacta. Last time out, the son of Shanghai Bobby finished second behind Alwaysmining in the Private Term Stakes at Laurel back on March 16th. This guy should be forwardly placed, and Nik Juarez will make the trip to New York for this race. Will not use him here.
Top Four: 2 – 10 – 6 - 3
About Josh:
Originally from Upstate New York, Josh (also referred to as Dr. Atlas in racing circles) has been a long time follower and supporter of the "Sport of Kings".
Mr. Chicorelli worked for Horse Racing Nation and DerbyWars from 2011-2013 and has been a local at the Saratoga Race Course for over a decade. In his spare time, Josh writes handicapping articles and has worked part-time for the NYRA Bets Squad over the past two years.
Josh received his BS in New Media Marketing from RIT in 2011 and recently completed his Masters in Business Administration from RPI (May 2018).
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