Sunday, February 3, 2019

Kentucky Derby 2019 Points Race Recap: Withers Stakes

2/2/2019
Aqueduct
Race 9: Gr. III Withers Stakes Recap (3yr M, 1-1/8 Miles Dirt, $250,000)
Track Condition: Fast
Final Time: 1:50.23


Please visit The Runaway Horse Kentucky Derby 2019 Page for Derby Trail Updates






A field of seven competed in the Gr. III Withers Stakes this past Saturday at the Aqueduct Racetrack.  Conditions were good as the track was labeled fast.  Tax (Arch by Toll), trained by Danny Gargan crossed the wire first in a final time of 1:50.23 for the 1-1/8 distance.


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Tax capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.


Overall, I was not impressed by the race however one must give credit to Mr. Gargan as he claimed the winner back in late October and he has done nothing but improve since.  Danny Gargan is one of the more underrated trainers in the country and does phenomenal work with his stable.  After the claim, Tax finished third in the Gr. II Remsen back on December 1st going the same 1-1/8 distance.  Maximus Mischief won that event and went on to finish third this past weekend in the Gr. II Holy Bull Stakes down at Gulfstream Park.


Tax did suffer a minor misstep after the gates opened but he quickly regained his momentum and took the lead going into the first turn.  All runners had pretty good beginnings except #5 – Lucky Lee and #7 – Not That Brady whom were both off a step slow.  Heading into the backstretch, Tax settled in third on the rail where he would sit for the remainder of the race. At the top of the stretch, Junior Alvarado flicked the whip and drove the horse through a tight hole on the rail.  After getting a little room, Junior went to the whip again and Tax was able to hold off #7 - Not That Brady, and #6 – Our Braintrust by a head at the wire.


I doubt any of these horses want to go much further and I do not think the 2019 Derby winner will come from this field.  I was most impressed with #7 – Not That Brady as he went five-wide into the first turn and still held on for second in his first race past eight furlongs.

1st – Tax: Took a bad step out of the gate but quickly regained his form and took the lead going into the first turn.  Entering the backstretch, he settled in third down on the rail where he sat for the remainder of the race.  The horse had to bully his way through very tight quarters down on the rail, so you must give him some credit in that regard.  Junior took to the whip midway down the stretch and the horse was able to hold off the second and third place finisher by a head.  It was a decent performance for a former claiming horse however I am not sold on his ability to go much further.

2nd -  Not That Brady:  Was off a step slow and went awfully wide into the first turn.  Had that not happened he probably wins the race.  After the first turn, Reylu Gutierrez sent the horse to the lead where he stayed for the remainder of the race until getting passed by Tax down on the rail.  There was some bumping between Not That Brady and Our Braintrust down the stretch, however I don’t think it cost either the victory.

3rd - Our Braintrust: Had a good start but also went four-wide entering the first turn as he had #4 – Admire and #1 – Tax to his inside.  Not That Brady soon passed Our Braintrust entering the backstretch and he followed suit to sit second for most of the race.  Admire was sitting to his left for a bit of the backstretch but entering the final turn Our Braintrust turned him away and inched closer to the leader.  Our Braintrust and Not That Brady did bump each other down the stretch and Our Braintrust probably took the worst of it.  Either way I don’t think they were catching the winner.


4th - Sir Winston: Good start out of the gate but settled in last entering the first turn.  He was about eight lengths off the pace for most of the race and rallied on the rail to finish fourth.  This was his first race over the dirt since his sixth-place finish in his debut at Saratoga so we will see if he can improve from this.


5th – Admire:  Ended up third after the first turn as Eric Cancel had to pull on the reigns for a bit when Not That Brady passed to his outside.  Soon after, Our Braintrust followed which put Admire fourth and between horses for the remainder of the race.  Cancel tried to keep up with the top two but entering the final turn you could see he had little left.  This was only his third career start, so some improvement is to be expected.


6th – Moretti: Was the favorite for most of the post parade and drifted up to 2.45-1 once the gates opened.  His start was solid enough and he later settled for fifth down by the rail; about three lengths off the leaders.  With some space to run the colt looked to be inching closer to the pace setters but Manny Franco pulled back on the reigns and essentially curtailed the horse’s momentum.  I put more strain on Franco for this loss.  Todd Pletcher added blinkers for this race and he did win at the distance to break his maiden.  Big strides would have to be taken moving forward to consider him a threat.


7th – Lucky Lee: Was off a step slow and raced second to last for most of the contest.  He looked good entering the final turn as he approached Moretti to his outside however Moretti did shift out a bit which must have been the deterrent in him making up any more ground.  At the point Lucky Lee was last as Sir Winston passed him to his inside.  To me this horse had no interest in running on Saturday and I don’t think he can go further than eight to eight and a half furlongs.  Seemed a bit outclassed by this group.

Article by Josh Chicorelli 



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