5 Most Likely Kentucky Derby 2022 Winners Featuring Epicenter and Zandon

 Here is my latest horse racing video featuring the 5 most likely #KyDerby 2022 winners. 

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5 Most Likely Kentucky Oaks 2022 Winners Featuring Nest and Echo Zulu

Here is my latest horse racing video featuring the 5 most likely #KyOaks 2022 winners. 

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Kentucky Derby 2022 Contenders Video Featuring Crown Pride and Summer Is Tomorrow

Here is my latest horse racing video featuring #KyDerby contenders Crown Pride and Summer Is Tomorrow.       

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Kentucky Derby 2022 Contenders Video Featuring Taiba and Messier

Here is my latest horse racing video featuring #KyDerby contenders Taiba and Messier.       

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Kentucky Derby 2022 Contenders Featuring White Abarrio, Simplification, and Cyberknife

Here is my latest horse racing video featuring #KyDerby contenders White Abarrio and Cyberknife.      

Check out free stakes picks, Santa Anita card analysis, and more at The Runaway Horse. 

Kentucky Derby 2022 Contenders Video Featuring Mo Donegal & Tiz the Bomb

Here is my latest horse racing video featuring #KyDerby contenders Mo Donegal and Tiz the Bomb.      

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Kentucky Derby 2022 Contenders Video Featuring Epicenter, Smile Happy, and Zandon

Here is my latest horse racing video featuring #KyDerby contenders Epicenter & Zandon.     

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Kentucky Derby 2022 Points Race Video Series: Lexington Stakes Analysis

Here is my latest horse racing video featuring analysis of the Lexington Stakes on 4-16-22.     

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Kentucky Derby 2022 Report: Updated Exceptional 11 Contenders

 

Cyberknife, White Abarrio, and Tiz The Bomb all punched their tickets to Kentucky Derby 2022 with tactical stakes victories in the Arkansas Derby (G1), Florida Derby (G1), and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on Saturday, April 2. There are three more 100 points races on the docket for April 9, and one race worth 20 points on April 16. We are getting down to the wire now and the Derby picture is getting cleared, but this division remains highly competitive with no apparent standouts. 

Kentucky Derby 2022 Points Race Results

Arkansas Derby (4-2-22) - Winner: Cyberknife ($13.60) 

The four-race road to the Derby series at Oaklawn Park was disappointing. The Smarty Jones, Southwest (G3), and Rebel (G2) were slow events, and the Arkansas Derby (G1) was not much better. Kavod was intent on the early lead from the inside post, and Chasing Time from post 2 was forward early as well. In a surprising pace development, SoCal closer Doppelganger removed blinkers and was aggressively handled early under Johnny V. It looked like the latter wanted to make the front but was not quick enough, so he chased wide. While all of that was going on, Cyberknife sat a dream trip stalking from 4th. He crept closer under Geroux, split horses, hit the front, got clear, and scored by a bit less than three lengths while lugging out late. Barber Road rallied for the place and was lugging in. He wins the award for the most consistent 3yo in Arkansas. He completed the exacta in the Smarty Jones, Southwest (G3), and this race, and landed the show in the Rebel (G2). Secret Oath was the chalk while taking on the males, and she was bothered early, sat back, made a premature wide move, got into 2nd, and flattened out in a solid show finish. She will target the Ky Oaks and should be competitive in that spot. Doppelganger started to drop back with three furlongs to go and appeared to be done at that stage, but moved outside in the lane and somehow passed multiple rivals to complete the superfecta while no threat to the Top 3. The final time was 1:50.02 (final quarter in 26.02), with a final furlong in 13.18. 

Florida Derby (4-2-22) - Winner: White Abarrio ($7.80)

This was probably the strongest of the three Derby preps run on April 2, but I am still not convinced that we saw the Derby winner this weekend. Classic Causeway made the early lead and that was hardly a surprise, but I was not expecting him to be pressed by post time favorite Simplification and BC Juvenile (G1) runner-up Pappacap. Charge It did not have the smoothest start and ended up stalking inside, and White Abarrio stalked wide while out in the clear. Simplification turned up the pressure on Classic Causeway, and the latter was surprisingly done very early. Pappacap immediately confronted Simplification and stuck his head in front briefly. White Abarrio moved up outside and Charge It was given his cue inside. Pappacap started to tire and Simplification kept fighting on, but White Abarrio gained command in the lane and Charge It came after him. The latter could not keep a straight line and that cost him dearly. In the end, White Abarrio scored by a length and a quarter over a green Charge It, and Simplification was best of the rest in 3rd. Pappacap ended up an okay 4th and the others never really got involved. Classic Causeway turned in a real clunker and faded to last (beaten more than 21 lengths). I did not like him coming back in three weeks, and he figured to face pace pressure as the slowest of the four main win contenders, but I did not expect him to give up the ghost so quickly. I do not see how they go to the Derby after this effort. The final time for 9f was 1:50.64 (25.87 final quarter), with a final furlong in 14.09. 

Jeff Ruby Steaks (4-2-22) - Winner: Tiz The Bomb ($5.20)

Tiz The Bomb followed up a win in the local Battaglia Memorial with another victory in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3). He sat in midpack in the 12-horse field, and he got into a tussle with my top choice Tawny Port. Those two ended up dominating, and Tiz The Bomb seized control late and edged clear by 2-1/2 lengths. Tawny Port worked out a decent tactical trip and was clearly second best. Rich Strike rallied from the back of the pack to garner the show, and Dowagic Chief set the pace and weakened to 4th. The final time for 9f on all-weather ground was a solid 1:48.60 (final quarter in 24.51), with a last fraction of 12.71. The main concern for the top two finishers in regards to the Ky Derby is the dirt surface. Tiz The Bomb bombed on dirt in the Holy Bull (G3) earlier this year, and Tawny Port was a non-threatening 5th on the main track in the Risen Star (G2). 
 
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Kentucky Derby 2022 Points Race Results
Iroquois (10-4-2-1) - Sept. 18 - Winner: Major General ($11.80)
American Pharoah (10-4-2-1) - Oct. 1 - Winner: Corniche ($2.80)
Champagne (10-4-2-1) - Oct. 2 - Winner: Jack Christopher ($5.40)
Breeders’ Futurity (10-4-2-1) - Oct. 9 - Winner: Rattle N Roll ($19.40)
BC Juvenile (20-8-4-2) - Nov. 5 - Winner: Corniche ($4.80)
Ky Jockey Club (10-4-2-1) - Nov. 27 - Winner: Smile Happy ($11.60)
Remsen (10-4-2-1) - Dec. 4 - Winner: Mo Donegal ($4.90)
Los Al Futurity (10-4-2-1) - Dec. 11 - Winner: Slow Down Andy ($12.40)
Springboard Mile (10-4-2-1) - Dec. 17 - Winner: Make It Big ($4.60)
Gun Runner (10-4-2-1) - Dec. 26. - Winner: Epicenter ($7.80)
Smarty Jones (10-4-2-1) - Jan. 1 - Winner: Dash Attack ($17.40)
Jerome (10-4-2-1) - Jan. 1 - Winner: Courvoisier ($10.00)
Sham (10-4-2-1) - Jan. 1 - Winner: Newgrange ($7.40)
Lecomte (10-4-2-1) - Jan. 22 - Winner: Call Me Midnight ($59.00)
Southwest (10-4-2-1) - Jan. 29 - Winner: Newgrange ($5.00)
Withers (10-4-2-1) - Feb. 5 - Winner: Early Voting ($4.60)
Holy Bull (10-4-2-1) - Feb. 5 - Winner: White Abarrio ($14.00)
Robert Lewis (10-4-2-1) - Feb. 6 - Winner: Messier ($3.20)
Sam F. Davis (10-4-2-1) - Feb. 12 - Winner: Classic Causeway ($5.20)
El Camino Real Derby (10-4-2-1) - Feb. 12 - Winner: Blackadder ($9.60)
Risen Star (50-20-10-5) - Feb, 19 - Winner: Epicenter ($9.00)
Rebel (50-20-10-5) - Feb. 26 - Winner: Un Ojo ($152.80)
John Battaglia Memorial (10-4-2-1) - March 5 - Winner: Tiz the Bomb ($5.20)
Fountain of Youth (50-20-10-5) - March 5 - Winner: Simplification ($7.00)
Gotham (50-20-10-5) - March 5 - Winner: Morello ($4.00)
San Felipe (50-20-10-5) - March 5 - Winner: Forbidden Kingdom ($4.00)
Tampa Bay Derby - March 12 - Winner: Classic Causeway ($3.60)
UAE Derby (100-40-20-10) - March 26 - Winner: Crown Pride (JPN)
Louisiana Derby (100-40-20-10) - March 26 - Winner: Epicenter ($4.00)
Sunland Derby (50-20-10-5) - March 27 - Winner: Slow Down Andy ($4.40)
Florida Derby (100-40-20-10) - April 2 - White Abarrio ($7.80)
Arkansas Derby (100-40-20-10) - April 2 - Cyberknife ($13.60)
Jeff Ruby Steaks (100-40-20-10) - April 2 - Tiz The Bomb ($5.20)

Upcoming Derby Points Races
Wood Memorial (100-40-20-10) - April 9
Blue Grass (100-40-20-10) - April 9
SA Derby (100-40-20-10) - April 9
Lexington (20-8-4-2) - April 16

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Top 30 Kentucky Derby Points Leaders (thru 4-8-22)

164 Points: Epicenter

112 Points: White Abarrio

110 Points: Tiz the Bomb

100 Points: Cyberknife, Crown Pride (JPN)

74 Points: Simplification

66 Points: Classic Causeway

60 Points: Slow Down Andy

58 Points: Barber Road

54 Points: Un Ojo

50 Points: Forbidden Kingdom, Morello

40 Points: Zozos, Summer Is Tomorrow, Charge It, Tawny Port

30 Points: Smile Happy

25 Points: Pioneer of Medina

21 Points: Grantham, Rich Strike

20 Points: Rattle N Roll, Ethereal Road, Bye Bye Bobby, In Due Time

14 Points: Zandon

12 Points: Mo Donegal

10 Points: Major General, Dash Attack, Early Voting, Call Me Midnight, Happy Jack

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Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2022 Contenders (4-8-22)

1 - SMILE HAPPY (Runhappy - Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap)

He won what was arguably the top juvenile points race last year. He was sharp in that victory in the Kentucky Jockey (G2), and three runners from that heat have won four Derby points races this year (Call Me Midnight, White Abarrio, Classic Causeway). He made his 3yo bow in the Risen Star (G2) and ran well without winning, and two runners from that heat have won subsequent Derby points races (Epicenter, Slow Down Andy). He has worked five times since the Risen Star including a 5f bullet at Gulfstream Park on March 19 (58.81 - best of 28). They have landed on the April 9 Blue Grass (G2) as his final Derby prep, and he drew post 10 and is the morning line favorite.

2 - EPICENTER (Not This Time - Silent Candy, by Candy Ride)

Improved nicely in his prominent throughout romp in the Gun Runner Stakes at 8.5f on Dec. 26. He came right back in the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds on Jan. 22, and he carved out above par fractions, turned away multiple challenges, and was nailed on the line by longshot closer Call Me Midnight. He lost nothing in defeat in the Lecomte, and he really put it all together with a strong front running victory in the Risen Star (G2) at 9f. Quality early-pressing types will make you pay if you hand them an easy lead through comfortable fractions, and he did just that on Feb. 19. The LA Derby was his final Derby prep, and instead of setting the pace, he settled inside stalking the early leaders, and he tipped out and rolled home to another easy victory. This is not really a knock, but it is more like a nagging feeling that he is peaking too soon. He ran well in points race routes on Dec. 26, Jan. 22, Feb. 19, and March 26. It is tough to run so many hard races in a relatively short timeframe without regressing.

3 - WHITE ABARRIO (Race Day - Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief)

White Abarrio was solid again in the Florida Derby (G1), and he is now 4-for-4 at GP. He had every right to be a bit short in the Holy Bull (G3) and in the Florida Derby due to a light workout pattern for the former race and a couple days of missed training for the latter race, but he prevailed both times for Saffie Joseph Jr. His tactical speed always leads to a favorable trip and he is a legit Derby win contender. 

4 - ZANDON (Upstart - Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause)

He gave Mo Donegal a real tussle in the Remsen (G2). In the latter event, he stalked slow fractions while out in the clear, grabbed the lead in the lane, and fought back when Mo Donegal passed him in a gritty nose defeat. He was originally slated to go in the Holy Bull (G3), but his connections called an audible and opted for the Risen Star (G2). In the 9f affair at Fair Grounds, he was expected to stalk the pace but lunged at the start and was away last. He made a nice, long run from off the pace and ended up a solid 3rd. That race should have done wonders from a fitness standpoint and he might move up in a big way next time. Chad Brown has penciled in the April 9 Blue Grass (G2) for his next assignment, and he drew comfortably in post 4 and is a solid contender. 

5 - MO DONEGAL (Uncle Mo - Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit)

Back-to-back route wins including the Remsen (G2). In that race, he saved ground stalking the pace from the rail, swung out wide in the stretch, gained a short advantage, and dug in and edged Zandon in an exciting stretch battle. He showed nice determination, and Todd Pletcher’s well-bred colt owns fine tactical speed. He made his sophomore bow in the Holy Bull (G3), and he rallied for the show in a rock solid effort. He was entered in the March 5 Fountain of Youth (G2), but he drew post 12 and came down with a fever, so he was removed from that event. The Wood Memorial (G2) on April 9 will be his final Derby prep, and he sports back-to-back bullets for that engagement. 

6 - MESSIER (Empire Maker - Checkered Past, by Smart Strike)

Slow Down Andy beat him in the Los Al Futurity (G2) late last year, and that one recently captured the Sunland Derby (G3). Messier ran off the screen in his lone 3yo start in the Robert Lewis Stakes (G3) Feb. 6, and that is still the fastest points race this year. He was recently transferred from Bob Baffert to Tim Yakteen due to his former conditioner’s ban from the 2022 Derby. He has worked six times since his last including a 6f bullet March 27, and a solid 5f move April 2. He goes next in the SA Derby (G1) April 9 and is the even money favorite. He needs a 1-2 finish to qualify for the Ky Derby. 

7 - FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (American Pharoah - Just Louise, by Five Star Day)

He sure looked sharp in his seven panel return in the San Vicente (G2). In that affair, he got to the front from the inside post and stayed clear throughout in a nice 2-1/4 length score over Baffert trainees Pinehurst (next-out winner in G3 Saudi Derby), McLaren Vale, and Doppelganger. He was firing three bullets in advance of the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 5, and he used his blazing easy speed to run them off their feet in that spot. The waters get deeper in the SA Derby (G1), and he is going to need to distribute his energy more efficiently if he expects to handle 9f and beyond. He is the 6-5 second choice in the SA Derby. 

8 - CYBERKNIFE (Gun Runner - Awesome Flower, by Flower Alley)

Cyberknife picked up his first stakes win in the Arkansas Derby (G1), and that was his sixth career start for Brad Cox. He has made nice progress this year and is getting good at the right time, but he could not have hoped for better trip on April 2. He sat sweetly behind three early runners, moved up while racing between rivals, pushed clear, and won comfortably over consistent board-hitter Barber Road and filly Secret Oath. He seems a cut below the top runners in this division, but this continues to look like a relatively closely-matched group, and I would not completely count him out on the first Saturday in May. 

9 - CHARGE IT (Tapit - I’ll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie)

I am not quite sure what to make of Charge It’s Derby chances after an unprofessional, runner-up finish in the Florida Derby (G1). His raw talent carried him at the Gulf on April 2. That was just his third start and first stakes and route attempt. He took dirt for the first time after a less than ideal start, and he might have won if he kept a straight line in the lane. It was a nice education run and I might really like him if he had one more race under his belt. The feeling at this stage is he will be better later this year.

10 - SIMPLIFICATION (Not This Time - Simply Confection, by Candy Ride)

Simplification ran quality races in a front running win in the Much Macho Man, a rallying 2nd after a bad start in the Holy Bull (G3), and a late running score in the Fountain of Youth (G2). He ran hard throughout in a solid show finish in the Florida Derby (G1), and I do not know if he has another big effort in him on the first Saturday in May. He might run out of wind at 10f and probably peaked in the FOY. 

11 - MORELLO (Classic Empire - Stop the Wedding, by Congrats)

Asmussen’s early-pressing colt captured all three starts. He stalked and scored in his 6f bow, and duplicated that feat in the 7f Jimmy Winkfield. In the Gotham (G3) at one mile around one turn, he chased the pace and pulled away in the lane. He got back to work at Belmont Park (dirt training) March 14, and the April 9 Wood Memorial (G2) is his next step. We will learn much more about him in that 9f affair., and he is the 8-5 morning line favorite. 

Next Nine: (12) Early Voting, (13) Grantham, (14) Ethereal Road, (15) Zozos, (16) Emmanuel, (17) Tiz the Bomb, (18) Pioneer of Medina, (19) Un Ojo, (20) Commandperformance

Article by Jarrod Horak (originally posted at The Runaway Horse on 4-8-22)

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Kentucky Oaks 2022 Report: Nest Powers Away in Ashland Stakes

Kathleen O. proved that she was a legitimate Kentucky Oaks 2022 contender after winning for the fourth time in as many outings in the GP Oaks (G2) on April 2. In other Oaks points race action last weekend, Yuugiri wired the field in the Fantasy, and bomber Candy Raid rolled to a big victory in the Bourbonette Oaks. Not to be outdone, my top ranked Oaks contender Nest rolled home like a good thing in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland on Friday, April 8.

Kentucky Oaks 2022 Points Race Results

GP Oaks (4-2-22) - Winner: Kathleen O. ($3.00)

Only six lined up in this 8.5f Oaks prep, and there was not much depth. Two horses took all the betting action and they dominated. Goddess of Fire got first run for Saez/Pletcher, but Kathleen O. made a strong wide run, swept past the aforementioned Pletcher trainee, and scored by an easy 2+ lengths. Goddess of Fire ran a winning race but just hooked a better rival while 17+ clear of show finisher Running Legacy. Amani’s Image, Blustery, and Cancel This also ran. The final time was 1:43.75.

Fantasy (4-2-22) - Winner: Yuugiri ($10.20)

This race lost much of its luster when Secret Oath opted for the Arkansas Derby (G1). Eda was the morning line favorite, but she came down with a fever and scratched. It appears as though there would be a contested pace, but Yuugiri got to the front and gamely held off stalker Beguine to score by a half-length. Bubble Rock stayed forward throughout and was best of the rest in 3rd. I Feel the Need, beaten favorite Dream Lith, Heartyconstitution, Mariah’s Fortune, and Magic Circle completed the order of finish. The final time was 1:43.65 and I seriously doubt we saw the Oaks winner in this watered down event.

Bourbonette Oaks (4-2-22) - Winner: Candy Raid ($106.60)

Bombs away in this all-weather Oaks prep at 8.5f. Twelve runners broke from the gate, and 52-1 longshot Candy Raid went last-to-first to win by a stunningly easy 4+ lengths for Bejarano/Keith D. Tap Dancing Lady finished in a dead-heat for 2nd with Florida shipper Catiche, and North County and Mrs. Barbara followed those two. Scholfmitz, beaten chalk Sandstone, Vergara, Heavenly Hellos, Let’s Be Clear, Red Hot Mama, and Champagne Poetry also ran. The finish time was 1:42.96.

Ashland (4-8-22) - Winner: Nest ($5.40)

My top ranked Oaks contender Nest glided across the wet fast footing in this 8.5f affair. Interstatedaydream beat Happy Soul to the front after the latter was bumped at the start. Those two were clear after a half-mile, but Nest was moving sweetly outside under Irad Ortiz Jr. Her rider knew it was a short stretch and needed to attack earlier, and did she ever. She sailed to the front and widened to score by 8+ lengths. Cocktail Moments rallied to nip Interstatedaydream for the runner-up spot, and they were clear of weakening stalker Awake At Midnyte. The rest were of no consequence including distance challenged Happy Soul. The final time was 1:44.16 and the winner is a solid Oaks win contender at a distance she should love.

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Kentucky Oaks 2022 Points Race Results
Pocahontas (10-4-2-1) - Sep. 18 - Winner: Hidden Connection
Chandelier (10-4-2-1) - Oct. 1 - Winner: Ain’t Easy
Frizette (10-4-2-1) - Oct. 3 - Winner: Echo Zulu
Alcibiades (10-4-2-1) - Oct. 8 - Winner: Juju’s Map
BC Juvenile Fillies (20-8-4-2) - Nov. 5 - Winner: Echo Zulu
Golden Rod (10-4-2-1) - Nov. 27 - Winner: Dream Lith
Demoiselle (10-4-2-1) - Dec. 4 - Winner: Nest
Starlet (10-4-2-1) - Dec. 4 - Winner: Eda
Untapable (10-4-2-1) - Dec. 26 - Winner: North County
Sant Ynez (10-4-2-1) - Jan. 8 - Winner: Under the Stars
Silverbulletday (10-4-2-1) - Jan. 22 - Winner: La Crete
Busanda (10-4-2-1) - Jan. 23 - Winner: Magic Circle
Martha Washington (10-4-2-1) - Jan. 29 - Winner: Secret Oath
Forward Gal (10-4-2-1) - Feb. 5 - Winner: Girl With a Dream
Las Virgenes (10-4-2-1) - Feb. 6 - Winner: Adare Manor
Suncoast (10-4-2-1) - Feb. 12 - Winner: Nest
UAE Oaks (50-20-10-5) - Feb. 17 - Winner: Shahama
Rachel Alexandra (50-20-10-5) - Feb. 19 - Winner: Turnerloose
Honeybee (50-20-10-5) - Feb. 26.- Winner: Secret Oath
Cincinnati Trophy (10-4-2-1) - March 5 - Winner: Bubble Rock
Davona Dale (50-20-10-5) - March 5 - Winner: Kathleen O.
Busher (50-20-10-5) - March 5 - Winner: Venti Valentine
Santa Ysabel (50-20-10-5) - March 6 - Winner: Eda
FG Oaks (100-40-20-10) - March 26 - Winner Echo Zulu
Sunland Park Oaks (50-20-10-5) - March 27 - Winner: Cleopatras Charge
GP Oaks (100-40-20-10) - April 2 - Winner: Kathleen O.
Fantasy (100-40-20-10) - April 2 - Winner: Yuugirl
Bourbonette Oaks (50-20-10-5) - April 2 - Winner: Candy Raid
Ashland (100-40-20-10) - April 8 - Winner: Nest
​
Upcoming Oaks Points Races
Gazelle (100-40-20-10) - April 9
SA Oaks (100-40-20-10) - April 9
Beaumont (10-4-2-1) - April 10

Top 20 Kentucky Oaks Points Leaders (through 4-8-22)
​
150 Points: Kathleen O.

130 Points: Echo Zulu

120 Points: Nest

114 Points: Yuugiri

80 Points: Secret Oath

62 Points: Goddess of Fire

60 Points: Turnerloose

57 Points: Hidden Connection

54 Points: Venti Valentine

52 Points: Cocktail Moments

51 Points: Candy Raid

50 Points: Shahama

30 Points: Bubble Rock

24 Points: Awake At Midnyte

23 Points: Magic Circle

21 Points: Shotgun Hottie

20 Points: Ain’t Easy, Favor, Classy Edition

18 Points: Juju’s Map

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Jarrod Horak’s Fabulous Five Kentucky Oaks 2022 Contenders (4-8-22)   

#1 - NEST - Followed up a smart Suncoast win with a razor sharp triumph in Ashland (G1). 

#2 - SECRET OATH - Solid 3rd in April 2 Arkansas Derby (G1). Dominated 3yo fillies at OP this year.

#3 - KATHLEEN O. - Shug’s Late running filly is 4-for-4. She was excellent in GP Oaks (G2) April 2.

#4 - ECHO ZULU - 2YO filly champ just held on in less than spectacular FG Oaks (G2) return.     

#5 - AIN’T EASY - Returned with okay 3rd in Santa Ysabel (G3). Needs to move up in April 9 SA Oaks (G2).

Article by Jarrod Horak (originally posted at The Runaway Horse on 4-8-22)

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#KyDerby + #KyOaks Video Series: SA Derby & SA Oaks

Here is my latest horse racing video featuring analysis of the SA Derby + SA Oaks on 4-9-22.     

Check out free stakes picks, Santa Anita card analysis, and more at The Runaway Horse.