Check out my 2017 Twilight Derby video for Today's Racing Digest.
Saturday, October 28, 2017
Friday, October 20, 2017
Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders Video with Bolt d'Oro, Free Drop Billy, and Firenze Fire
Check out my latest Kentucky Derby 2018 contenders video featuring Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorite Bolt d'Oro.
Kentucky Derby 2018 Blog featuring Bolt d'Oro and Free Drop Billy
Bolt d’Oro exceeded all expectations and easily remains on top of my Kentucky Derby 2018 list following an authoritative victory in the G1 FrontRunner at Santa Anita. The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile favorite is a perfect 3-for-3 and his running style versatility makes him a dangerous contender in a variety of pace situations.
My second ranked Derby contender Free Drop Billy also holds his position this week following a sharp win in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on Oct 7. Romans has the BC Juvenile on his dance card, along with Iroquois runner-up Hollywood Story.
Solomini moves up a notch after a solid 2nd in the FrontRunner and Good Magicmoves up from 6th to 4th following his clear place finish in the G1 Champagne.
In other juvenile news, promising Baffert trainee Nero got back on the worktab with a 4f move (:48.20) at SA on Oct 4 and worked again on Oct 11 (4f in :49.20) He was 2nd in his DMR bow Aug 27 (111 Final) and is bred to handle a route of ground. His highly regarded stablemate St. Patrick’s Day (American Pharoah’s brother) is getting some time off because Baffert believes that he is “a bit immature.” Baffert also unveiled promising debut winner Mourinho at SA Sept 30 (125 Final) and he is entered in the Speakeasy Stakes on Oct. 15. Baffert was not done and finished the holiday weekend with first time out winner Talent Scout on Oct 9.
Tiz Mischief looked good graduating in his third lifetime start at KEE for Dale Romans on Oct 7. He rallied from 10th to score by a length at 8.5f and the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is next. Breeders’ Futurity runner-up Bravazo is also targeting the Ky Jockey Club for Wayne Lukas.
Ellis Park Juvenile hero Dak Attack has gone to the sidelines with sore shins. If he recovers in time, the Remington Springboard Mile on Dec. 17 could be a late season option. Hopeful winner Sporting Chance also has a case of sore shins.
Tatters to Riches, an original member of my Derby list, recently had hind ankle surgery to remove a bone chip. His recovery is expected to take four months and Mullins hopes to have him back in his barn early next year.
Jungle Warfare stretched out and finished a disappointing, distant 2nd behind a runaway winner at SA Sept 29. He is now 0-for-4 with four minor awards and has not progressed as expected so he drops off the bottom of my list.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Comments: He improved his Today’s Racing Digest Final Ratings (140, 132, 128) + CPR Ratings (141, 126, 120) in all three starts and the versatile, undefeated colt stalked Take the One O One and ran away from his eight opponents in the G1 FrontRunner (1st by 7+ lengths) on Sept 30. He can wrap up the 2-year-old title with a win in the BC Juvenile.
Derby Points (10)
(2) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Comments: His TRD Final Ratings are on the rise (140, 138, 129, 126) and he stalked from midpack from an outer post handled two turns as expected in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity (1st by 4 lengths) on Oct 7. He will probably be the second betting choice behind Bolt d’Oro in the BC Juvenile.
Derby Points (10)
(3) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in :47.80 (1/19) at Santa Anita on Oct 10.
Comments: Looked good beating Bahamian as the even money favorite in his DMR debut Sept 2 (132 Final). He entered the G1 FrontRuner with only one sprint under his belt and was clearly second best (116 Final) after racing four wide into the first turn from an outer post and stalking outside for much of the running. The BC Juvenile is next.
Derby Points (4)
(4) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown) - Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Comments: Still a maiden after landing the place in his first two outings. All of his TRD numbers jumped up in the G1 Champagne (138 Final Rating). Firenze Fire rallied from 10th to beat him by a 1/2 length in the Champagne but he ran a winning race was clearly second best in a fine effort.
Derby Points (4)
(5) HOLLYWOOD STAR (Malibu Moon - Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Racing)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01 (12/55) at Churchill on Oct 7.
Comments: Followed up a debut maiden win at CD June 28 (120 Final) with back-to-back place finishes in the G2 Saratoga Special (123 Final) and G3 Iorquois (134 Final). His CPR, FIRE, and Pace Ratings also improved in each of his three starts and the Romans trainee is preparing for the BC Juvenile (Joel Rosario will ride).
Derby Points (4)
(6) MONTAUK (Medaglia d’Oro - Indian Vale, by A. P. Indy)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (LaPenta, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Twin Creeks Racing Stables)
Comments: The even money chalk made a smashing debut on the Champagne Stakes undercard in the 6th race on Oct 7 (155 Pace + 141 Final). In his aforementioned seven panel bow, he stalked from post 10 after a 1/4, moved up to dispute the pace after a 1/2, and keep pulling away to win by 11+ lengths while in hand under Johnny V. The smart move would be to skip the BC Juvenile and target Aqueduct’s G2 Nashua on Nov 5 and the G2 Remsen on Dec 2.
(7) FIRENZE FIRE (Poseidon’s Warrior - My Every Wish, by Langfuhr)
Trainer (Jason Servis) - Owner (Mr Amore Stables)
Comments: 3-for-4 freshman campaign includes wins in the G3 Sanford (132 Final) and G1 Champagne (140 Final). In the Champagne, he closed from 10th to win by a 1/2 length (Good Magic 2nd) and the top two were three lengths clear of the rest. He has a sprint oriented pedigree so I am not sure how far he wants to go in the long run.
Derby Points (10)
(8) ZATTER (Midnight Lute - Katori, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Comments: Beat stablemate St. Patrick’s Day at DMR Aug 20 (140 Pace + 132 Final) and the latter flattered him with a maiden win of his own Sept 2. In the G1 Del Mar Futurity, he attended the pace outside, gained the lead while inching away in midstretch, and was run down by Bolt d’Oro while clearly second best. He saved ground stalking the pace in the FrontRunner but had nothing to offer in the lane and finished a well-beaten 5th in a disappointing effort. He might have distance limitations.
(9) HAZIT (War Front - Rumor, by Indian Charlie)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners)
Comments: Went straight to the front and gamely held off strong favorite Good Magic (clear 2nd - Chad Brown) in his Saratoga debut Aug 26 (131 Final). He chased quick fractions (wide) and ended up 5th of 12 in the Champagne. He has only started twice and still has upside.
(10) HONORABLE TREASURE ( To Honor and Serve - Tempest Treasure, by Dixie Union)
Trainer (Ken McPeek) - Owner (Harold Lerner LLC, AWC Stables, Akman, Scott K. and Nehoc Stables)
Comments: Ended up a fading 5th of 7 in his turf route bow at the Spa July 22 (104 Final) and winner Untamed Domain recently won the G2 Summer Stakes at WO. In his second start at seven panels on dirt (also Saratoga), he stalked and pounced from the outside post and cruised home by 6+ lengths (134 Final). In his most recent start in the Champagne Stakes, he disputed the pace and weakened to finish 6th of 12.
(11) BAHAMIAN (Freedom Child - Final Humor, by Distorted Humor)
Trainer (Simon Callaghan) - Owner (Reddam Racing)
Comments: Was edged for 3rd in his July 22 bow at DMR (104 Final) and was clearly second best behind promising Baffert trainee Solomini at that same venue Sept 2 (126 Final, blinkers off). Everything went out the window after he stumbled at the start, spotting the field 5+ lengths in the Champagne. He passed a trio of tired rivals and ended up 9th in an inconclusive effort.
THE NEXT NINE: (12) Nero, (13) Mourinho, (14) Talent Scout, (15) Tiz Mischief, (16) Bravazo, (17) Enticed, (18) Dak Attack, (19) St. Patrick’s Day, (20) The Tabulator
Friday, October 13, 2017
Friday, October 6, 2017
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