Check out my Kentucky Derby 2018 recap plus Preakness recap video for Today's Racing Digest below.
Click Here to Ready my Derby Recap/Preakness Preview Blog
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby 2018. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kentucky Derby 2018. Show all posts
Saturday, May 12, 2018
Friday, May 4, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Justify Headlines Derby Field
Post positions have been drawn for Kentucky Derby 2018 and we are a few days away from the big dance. Justify, the 3-1 morning line favorite, will break from post position seven.
Inner posts can be the kiss of death in the Derby. My Derby top Lookin At Lucky had a miserable trip from the rail in 2010, but came back two weeks later to capture the Preakness.
My Derby top Union Rags was shuffled out of contention from an inner post in 2012 but returned five weeks later to capture the Belmont Stakes. His son Free Drop Billy drew post two this year and might get shuffled back early.
For Derby post positions, I want my top win contenders to be as far away from the rail post as possible and 2015 was a good example. Early/pressing type American Pharoah drew post 18 and moved in a bit after scratches. He was free and clear and in the hunt throughout and his outer draw was the key to his victory over Firing Line and Dortmund.
Nyquist stalked the pace from post 13 en route to a 1-1/4 length victory over late striding Exaggerator in Kentucky Derby 2016.
The last four Derby winners (California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming) all had early/pressing versatility and comfortable forwardly placed trips from advantageous post positions.
From a 2018 post position standpoint, all of the main contenders landed decent positions. I think Mendelssohn did very well to land post 14. He should attend the pace while in the clear, and his draw seems to enhance his chances.
Bolt d’Oro was a big post position winner after landing 11. He projects a free and clear stalking trip.
Good Magic could fall into a beautiful ground saving stalking trip behind the speed. He could easily ride the inner portion of the track to victory.
Magnum Moon should not have any issues from post 16 and will probably stalk the pace outside.
As for post time favorite Justify, he did okay getting post 7. The key to his success is relaxing early behind likely front runner Promises Fulfilled from post 3. Flameaway has been on the engine this week, and he figures to attend the pace from post 4.
Audible is versatile and Javier Castellano will probably take up a tactical position from post 5.
At the other end of the spectrum, Firenze Fire drew the dreaded rail, but he was not a serious top four contender anyway. Combatant might have a tough go of it from post 20.
Noble Indy might be in trouble from post 19. He likes to be forwardly placed and could end up wide chasing lively fractions.
Solomini does not really have an effective winning running style, and whatever Flavien Prat decides, he better make a quick decision from post 17.
Vino Rosso will likely be coming from off the pace under John Velazquez from post 18. I would not say that he was a post position winner. It all depends on the break, and he may or may not end up with a wide or uncomfortable journey.
Everybody else did fine in the draw department including Lone Sailor (post 8), Hofburg (9), My Boy Jack (10), Enticed, (12), Bravazo, (13), and Instilled Regard (15). Blended Citizen is on the also-eligible list.
Jarrod Horak’s Final “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.20 (10/70) at Santa Anita Park on April 28.
Comments: He has been my top ranked Derby contender since I rolled out my first list on 9-25-17, and I see no reason to abandon him now. His six lifetime starts have produced four wins, a second, and a third, and the 3-time graded stakes winner (2 grade one wins) has a versatile running style. He had his first Derby work at Santa Anita Park on April 22. In that move, he was eager to work, getting his first half-mile in 46.60, and cruising through five panels in a brisk 58.40. He finished his work on the clubhouse turn under slight urging. In his final Derby work on April 28, he worked a rock solid solo half-mile under a very still Victor Espinoza, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times (War Emblem, California Chrome, American Pharaoh).
Derby Points (104)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.20 (8/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: The 2-year-old champion was a flat 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but he quickly put that effort in the rear view mirror after a rock solid stalk and pounce victory from an outer post position in the Blue Grass Stakes (150 Final Rating) at Keeneland on April 7. The 2017 BC Juvenile remains his best overall number, which is not a great sign, but the Blue Grass was definitely a step in the right direction. Trainer Chad Brown has methodically brought him along slowly this year, and he appears to be sitting on a top effort in the Kentucky Derby. His April 21 workout at Keeneland was excellent. The solo half-mile move was strong from start to finish, and he went an additional eighth of a mile in 1:01.40, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.60. He had his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 28, and once again, he was impressive. His gallops leading up to the Derby have been strong as well.
Derby Points (134)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (39/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: There is not much that this New York-bred colt cannot do. He brings a four-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby, and he beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He sat in 2nd in his romping Holy Bull Stakes victory (moderate pace). In the Florida Derby, the pace was smoking hot, and he rallied from 8th place. Due to his longstanding relationship with trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Javier Castellano chose Audible over Bolt d’Oro for the Kentucky Derby. The $500,000 colt has never been a strong work horse, but his April 13 bullet was an exception. In that move, he worked inside older stablemate You’re to Blame, and finished on even terms after moving outside (pulled clear on the gallop out in 1:02.22). He worked in company with 2017 Derby also-ran Patch on April 20, and pulled well clear on the gallop out in 1:15.80. The only possible knock in his pedigree, which is not suited to a mile and a quarter.
Derby Points (110)
(4) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 147 (SA Derby, SA, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:25.20 (1/1) at Santa Anita Park on April 27.
Comments: The Kentucky Derby favorite has been going great guns since his sharp SA Derby wire job under Mike Smith. He had the first of his two Derby workouts at Santa Anita Park on April 21, and it was a solid move in company with Zipman. He got five furlongs in 1:00.80 and six panels in 1:13.20 before galloping out seven-eighths in 1:26.80 under his exercise rider Drayden Van Dyke. He started slow and finished fast, getting his final three furlongs in 36.00. In his final Derby move on April 27, he worked a strong seven panels (1:25.20) in company with recent maiden winner Longden (1-for-6 career record). Baffert caught the splits on his watch in 12.40, 24.40, 36.60, 49.20, 1:00.80, and 1:12.60. He galloped out a mile in 1:39.80. There is no denying his talent, and he is coming up to the race perfectly, but the 20-horse Derby stampede is a tall order for such an inexperienced horse.
Derby Points (100)
(5) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Arkansas Derby, OP, 4-14-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :47.40 (4/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: He used his tactical speed and strong finishing kick to perfection in his first three wins, including a big Derby points race tally in the Rebel Stakes. He brought two bullet workouts into the Arkansas Derby, and went to the lead (slow pace) and never looked back in an easy triumph over pace presser Quip. It is easy to look good visually when everything is handed to you on a silver platter, and the same can be said of Justify. How will he handle a less than ideal trip in 20-horse Derby field? Apollo in 1882 was the last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby. He returned to his Palm Beach Downs base in Florida after the Arkansas Derby, and shipped to Churchill Downs on April 23.
Derby Points (150)
(6) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Aidan O’Brien)
Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17)
Comments: The UAE Derby has not been the preferred road to the Kentucky Derby to say the least, but this colt won the aforementioned Dubai race by a commanding eighteen lengths. Beholder’s $3 million half-brother shipped to Del Mar and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. In seven lifetime starts, he rattled off four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. He is one of the most intriguing overseas invaders to ever compete at Churchill Downs. He has arrived in Louisville and had his initial visit under the Twin Spires on May 3.
Derby Points (100)
(7) VINO ROSSO (Curlin - Mythical Bride, by Street Cry)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Wood Memorial, AQU, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.20 (1/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: The Wood Memorial hero has been hitting all the right notes since that breakout performance. In his workout on April 20, he drew away from older stakes winner Outplay, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.77. John Velazquez is his Derby pilot, and he has the pedigree to handle ten furlongs.
Derby Points (107)
(8) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.60 (4/9) at Santa Anita Park on April 29.
Comments: Gem of consistency has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in all six starts. He has not won since breaking his maiden in his career debut, but he did cross the line first in the Los Alamitos Futurity (disqualified and placed 3rd). He has not shown a winning spirit in the stakes ranks, and the hard trying grinder has not developed a winning running style. He fired a three furlong bullet on April 23, and his final Derby move on April 29 was solid. In his latest work at Santa Anita, he galloped out seven furlongs in 1:28.20 and changed leads on time, something he has not always done. Baffert has said that he will instruct jockey Flavien Prat to take him back and let him finish in the Derby, and that strategy was successful for him in the Los Al Fururity late last year.
Derby Points (54)
(9) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (31/87) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: He earned a 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and duplicated that number in in his first start this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd). In his final Derby prep on April 7, he was placed 3rd via disqualification in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (138 Final Rating). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He uncorked a big bullet at Churchill Downs on April 21, and jogged a mile on April 24. He might be rounding back into top form.
Derby Points (44)
(10) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (24/43) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: The Louisiana Derby winner is not afraid to get into a pace battle, and that determination to win is a big asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby. His LA Derby pilot John Velazquez has opted to ride Vino Rosso in the Derby, and Florent Geroux is his new pilot after Quip, another WinStar runner, opted to point to the Preakness Stakes. He had his first Derby workout on April 6, and breezed again in Florida on April 13. In his April 20 move, he was well clear of overmatched workmate Road to Damascus.
Derby Points (110)
(11) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:00.25 (2/7) at Palm Meadows on April 26.
Comments: The Champagne Stakes show finisher (Good Magic 2nd) ended his 2-year-old campaign with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The latter key race produced subsequent stakes winners Bravazo, Diamond King, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Reride. He was 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. In his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial on April 7 (141 Final Rating), he stalked, took the lead, and was second best behind sharp winner Vino Rosso. In his latest workout on April 19, he traveled in company with Take Charge Paula, and he edged clear of his multiple Grade 2-placed workmate. It was a solid morning move, but I am concerned that his best speed rating was earned in a one-turn mile event.
Derby Points (103)
THE NEXT NINE:
(12) Hofburg - (40 points) - Bill Mott’s Florida Derby runner-up late bloomer appears to be developing rapidly. He worked in company with Good Samaritan on April 15, and got the better of his classy older work mate by a head. They galloped out 5f in 1:01.37, and kept on going another furlong (1:15.30). He drilled a five furlong bullet on April 22 in 1:01.40 (1/6), and impressed again in his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 29. In his latest move, he worked in company with 3-year-old filly Villamay, and he worked a strong half-mile with an energetic gallop out. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be his Kentucky Derby pilot. Like many others, he appears to be peaking at the right time, but looking ahead, the Belmont Stakes might be his coming out party, along with Vino Rosso.
(13) My Boy Jack (32 points) - The late runner definitely earned his Derby stripes in the Sham Stakes (3rd), Southwest Stakes (1st), LA Derby (3rd), and Lexington Stakes (1st). He could easily land a share for Team Desormeaux if the Derby pace heats up, but at this stage he seems to prefer a mile and a sixteenth. West Point Thoroughbreds has purchased an interest in the Creative Cause colt. His lone Derby breeze was an easy five furlong maintenance move in 1:03.20 (46/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
(14) Flameaway - (70 points) - He ranks up there with My Boy Jack as a very likeable overachiever. He has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf, and has competed in eight stakes races with four wins, and a pair of 2nds. The early/pressing type never stops trying and has been on the muscle in his exercise leading up to the Derby. He breezed 5f in 1:00.40 (12/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and came back with a half-mile breeze in :47.80 (2/87) at Churchill on April 28. Jose Lezcano is his Derby pilot.
(15) Lone Sailor - (40 points) - His lone points race success was a rallying 2nd in the LA Derby. He will be passing tired horses in the Kentucky Derby, and a minor award is not impossible, especially if the pace is swift. On April 19, he drilled a five furlong bullet in :57.60 (1/19) at Churchill Downs, and his final Derby move was a four furlong breeze in :48.00 (13/75) on April 27.
(16) Combatant - (32 points) - He settled for minor awards in all five of his Derby points race events. The late mover will be passing tired horses, and he can be used in the trifecta and superfecta.
(17) Instilled Regard (29 points) - A couple of late defections helped land him in the Derby field. His improvement pattern ended after his Jan. 13 Lecomte win, and that is not a positive pattern. He worked 5f in 1:01.00 (37/96) at Santa Anita on April 21, and came back with another five furlong move in 1:00.80 (3/62) at that same venue on April 29.
(18) Firenze Fire - (39 points) - He is easy to root for, but a mile and a quarter is too far. 25 of his 39 Kentucky Derby points were earned in one-turn mile races (Champagne, Jerome, Gotham). He breezed 3f in 39.70 (35/37) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on April 21, and returned with an easy half-mile breeze in 50.00 (52/83) at that same venue on April 28.
(19) Bravazo - (54 points) - He qualified for the Derby with a game prominent throughout victory in the Risen Star, but was up the track when last seen in the LA Derby. The Wayne Lukas trainee worked six furlongs from the gate at Churchill Downs in 1:15/40 (1/3) on April 20, and his final Derby breeze was a five-eighths exercise in 1:01.40 (11/55) on April 28.
(20) Promises Fulfilled - (50 points) - The Dale Romans trainee is the likely Derby front runner, but he probably won’t be around at the finish. He went all the way in the Fountain of Youth, but got caught in a speed duel before throwing in the towel in the Florida Derby. He breezed 5f in 59.20 (4/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and went that same distance in 1:00.40 (4/55) on April 28. Like Bravazo, he may have peaked over the winter.
(21) Blended Citizen (22 points) - The Derby also-eligible needs one defection to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Even if he gets in, he faces a very tall order from the far outside post position. He seems to prefer synthetic or turf footing.
Inner posts can be the kiss of death in the Derby. My Derby top Lookin At Lucky had a miserable trip from the rail in 2010, but came back two weeks later to capture the Preakness.
My Derby top Union Rags was shuffled out of contention from an inner post in 2012 but returned five weeks later to capture the Belmont Stakes. His son Free Drop Billy drew post two this year and might get shuffled back early.
For Derby post positions, I want my top win contenders to be as far away from the rail post as possible and 2015 was a good example. Early/pressing type American Pharoah drew post 18 and moved in a bit after scratches. He was free and clear and in the hunt throughout and his outer draw was the key to his victory over Firing Line and Dortmund.
Nyquist stalked the pace from post 13 en route to a 1-1/4 length victory over late striding Exaggerator in Kentucky Derby 2016.
The last four Derby winners (California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming) all had early/pressing versatility and comfortable forwardly placed trips from advantageous post positions.
From a 2018 post position standpoint, all of the main contenders landed decent positions. I think Mendelssohn did very well to land post 14. He should attend the pace while in the clear, and his draw seems to enhance his chances.
Bolt d’Oro was a big post position winner after landing 11. He projects a free and clear stalking trip.
Good Magic could fall into a beautiful ground saving stalking trip behind the speed. He could easily ride the inner portion of the track to victory.
Magnum Moon should not have any issues from post 16 and will probably stalk the pace outside.
As for post time favorite Justify, he did okay getting post 7. The key to his success is relaxing early behind likely front runner Promises Fulfilled from post 3. Flameaway has been on the engine this week, and he figures to attend the pace from post 4.
Audible is versatile and Javier Castellano will probably take up a tactical position from post 5.
At the other end of the spectrum, Firenze Fire drew the dreaded rail, but he was not a serious top four contender anyway. Combatant might have a tough go of it from post 20.
Noble Indy might be in trouble from post 19. He likes to be forwardly placed and could end up wide chasing lively fractions.
Solomini does not really have an effective winning running style, and whatever Flavien Prat decides, he better make a quick decision from post 17.
Vino Rosso will likely be coming from off the pace under John Velazquez from post 18. I would not say that he was a post position winner. It all depends on the break, and he may or may not end up with a wide or uncomfortable journey.
Everybody else did fine in the draw department including Lone Sailor (post 8), Hofburg (9), My Boy Jack (10), Enticed, (12), Bravazo, (13), and Instilled Regard (15). Blended Citizen is on the also-eligible list.
Jarrod Horak’s Final “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.20 (10/70) at Santa Anita Park on April 28.
Comments: He has been my top ranked Derby contender since I rolled out my first list on 9-25-17, and I see no reason to abandon him now. His six lifetime starts have produced four wins, a second, and a third, and the 3-time graded stakes winner (2 grade one wins) has a versatile running style. He had his first Derby work at Santa Anita Park on April 22. In that move, he was eager to work, getting his first half-mile in 46.60, and cruising through five panels in a brisk 58.40. He finished his work on the clubhouse turn under slight urging. In his final Derby work on April 28, he worked a rock solid solo half-mile under a very still Victor Espinoza, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times (War Emblem, California Chrome, American Pharaoh).
Derby Points (104)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.20 (8/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: The 2-year-old champion was a flat 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but he quickly put that effort in the rear view mirror after a rock solid stalk and pounce victory from an outer post position in the Blue Grass Stakes (150 Final Rating) at Keeneland on April 7. The 2017 BC Juvenile remains his best overall number, which is not a great sign, but the Blue Grass was definitely a step in the right direction. Trainer Chad Brown has methodically brought him along slowly this year, and he appears to be sitting on a top effort in the Kentucky Derby. His April 21 workout at Keeneland was excellent. The solo half-mile move was strong from start to finish, and he went an additional eighth of a mile in 1:01.40, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.60. He had his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 28, and once again, he was impressive. His gallops leading up to the Derby have been strong as well.
Derby Points (134)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (39/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: There is not much that this New York-bred colt cannot do. He brings a four-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby, and he beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He sat in 2nd in his romping Holy Bull Stakes victory (moderate pace). In the Florida Derby, the pace was smoking hot, and he rallied from 8th place. Due to his longstanding relationship with trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Javier Castellano chose Audible over Bolt d’Oro for the Kentucky Derby. The $500,000 colt has never been a strong work horse, but his April 13 bullet was an exception. In that move, he worked inside older stablemate You’re to Blame, and finished on even terms after moving outside (pulled clear on the gallop out in 1:02.22). He worked in company with 2017 Derby also-ran Patch on April 20, and pulled well clear on the gallop out in 1:15.80. The only possible knock in his pedigree, which is not suited to a mile and a quarter.
Derby Points (110)
(4) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 147 (SA Derby, SA, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:25.20 (1/1) at Santa Anita Park on April 27.
Comments: The Kentucky Derby favorite has been going great guns since his sharp SA Derby wire job under Mike Smith. He had the first of his two Derby workouts at Santa Anita Park on April 21, and it was a solid move in company with Zipman. He got five furlongs in 1:00.80 and six panels in 1:13.20 before galloping out seven-eighths in 1:26.80 under his exercise rider Drayden Van Dyke. He started slow and finished fast, getting his final three furlongs in 36.00. In his final Derby move on April 27, he worked a strong seven panels (1:25.20) in company with recent maiden winner Longden (1-for-6 career record). Baffert caught the splits on his watch in 12.40, 24.40, 36.60, 49.20, 1:00.80, and 1:12.60. He galloped out a mile in 1:39.80. There is no denying his talent, and he is coming up to the race perfectly, but the 20-horse Derby stampede is a tall order for such an inexperienced horse.
Derby Points (100)
(5) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Arkansas Derby, OP, 4-14-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :47.40 (4/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: He used his tactical speed and strong finishing kick to perfection in his first three wins, including a big Derby points race tally in the Rebel Stakes. He brought two bullet workouts into the Arkansas Derby, and went to the lead (slow pace) and never looked back in an easy triumph over pace presser Quip. It is easy to look good visually when everything is handed to you on a silver platter, and the same can be said of Justify. How will he handle a less than ideal trip in 20-horse Derby field? Apollo in 1882 was the last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby. He returned to his Palm Beach Downs base in Florida after the Arkansas Derby, and shipped to Churchill Downs on April 23.
Derby Points (150)
(6) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Aidan O’Brien)
Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17)
Comments: The UAE Derby has not been the preferred road to the Kentucky Derby to say the least, but this colt won the aforementioned Dubai race by a commanding eighteen lengths. Beholder’s $3 million half-brother shipped to Del Mar and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. In seven lifetime starts, he rattled off four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. He is one of the most intriguing overseas invaders to ever compete at Churchill Downs. He has arrived in Louisville and had his initial visit under the Twin Spires on May 3.
Derby Points (100)
(7) VINO ROSSO (Curlin - Mythical Bride, by Street Cry)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Wood Memorial, AQU, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.20 (1/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: The Wood Memorial hero has been hitting all the right notes since that breakout performance. In his workout on April 20, he drew away from older stakes winner Outplay, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.77. John Velazquez is his Derby pilot, and he has the pedigree to handle ten furlongs.
Derby Points (107)
(8) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.60 (4/9) at Santa Anita Park on April 29.
Comments: Gem of consistency has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in all six starts. He has not won since breaking his maiden in his career debut, but he did cross the line first in the Los Alamitos Futurity (disqualified and placed 3rd). He has not shown a winning spirit in the stakes ranks, and the hard trying grinder has not developed a winning running style. He fired a three furlong bullet on April 23, and his final Derby move on April 29 was solid. In his latest work at Santa Anita, he galloped out seven furlongs in 1:28.20 and changed leads on time, something he has not always done. Baffert has said that he will instruct jockey Flavien Prat to take him back and let him finish in the Derby, and that strategy was successful for him in the Los Al Fururity late last year.
Derby Points (54)
(9) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (31/87) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: He earned a 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and duplicated that number in in his first start this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd). In his final Derby prep on April 7, he was placed 3rd via disqualification in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (138 Final Rating). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He uncorked a big bullet at Churchill Downs on April 21, and jogged a mile on April 24. He might be rounding back into top form.
Derby Points (44)
(10) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (24/43) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: The Louisiana Derby winner is not afraid to get into a pace battle, and that determination to win is a big asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby. His LA Derby pilot John Velazquez has opted to ride Vino Rosso in the Derby, and Florent Geroux is his new pilot after Quip, another WinStar runner, opted to point to the Preakness Stakes. He had his first Derby workout on April 6, and breezed again in Florida on April 13. In his April 20 move, he was well clear of overmatched workmate Road to Damascus.
Derby Points (110)
(11) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:00.25 (2/7) at Palm Meadows on April 26.
Comments: The Champagne Stakes show finisher (Good Magic 2nd) ended his 2-year-old campaign with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The latter key race produced subsequent stakes winners Bravazo, Diamond King, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Reride. He was 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. In his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial on April 7 (141 Final Rating), he stalked, took the lead, and was second best behind sharp winner Vino Rosso. In his latest workout on April 19, he traveled in company with Take Charge Paula, and he edged clear of his multiple Grade 2-placed workmate. It was a solid morning move, but I am concerned that his best speed rating was earned in a one-turn mile event.
Derby Points (103)
THE NEXT NINE:
(12) Hofburg - (40 points) - Bill Mott’s Florida Derby runner-up late bloomer appears to be developing rapidly. He worked in company with Good Samaritan on April 15, and got the better of his classy older work mate by a head. They galloped out 5f in 1:01.37, and kept on going another furlong (1:15.30). He drilled a five furlong bullet on April 22 in 1:01.40 (1/6), and impressed again in his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 29. In his latest move, he worked in company with 3-year-old filly Villamay, and he worked a strong half-mile with an energetic gallop out. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be his Kentucky Derby pilot. Like many others, he appears to be peaking at the right time, but looking ahead, the Belmont Stakes might be his coming out party, along with Vino Rosso.
(13) My Boy Jack (32 points) - The late runner definitely earned his Derby stripes in the Sham Stakes (3rd), Southwest Stakes (1st), LA Derby (3rd), and Lexington Stakes (1st). He could easily land a share for Team Desormeaux if the Derby pace heats up, but at this stage he seems to prefer a mile and a sixteenth. West Point Thoroughbreds has purchased an interest in the Creative Cause colt. His lone Derby breeze was an easy five furlong maintenance move in 1:03.20 (46/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
(14) Flameaway - (70 points) - He ranks up there with My Boy Jack as a very likeable overachiever. He has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf, and has competed in eight stakes races with four wins, and a pair of 2nds. The early/pressing type never stops trying and has been on the muscle in his exercise leading up to the Derby. He breezed 5f in 1:00.40 (12/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and came back with a half-mile breeze in :47.80 (2/87) at Churchill on April 28. Jose Lezcano is his Derby pilot.
(15) Lone Sailor - (40 points) - His lone points race success was a rallying 2nd in the LA Derby. He will be passing tired horses in the Kentucky Derby, and a minor award is not impossible, especially if the pace is swift. On April 19, he drilled a five furlong bullet in :57.60 (1/19) at Churchill Downs, and his final Derby move was a four furlong breeze in :48.00 (13/75) on April 27.
(16) Combatant - (32 points) - He settled for minor awards in all five of his Derby points race events. The late mover will be passing tired horses, and he can be used in the trifecta and superfecta.
(17) Instilled Regard (29 points) - A couple of late defections helped land him in the Derby field. His improvement pattern ended after his Jan. 13 Lecomte win, and that is not a positive pattern. He worked 5f in 1:01.00 (37/96) at Santa Anita on April 21, and came back with another five furlong move in 1:00.80 (3/62) at that same venue on April 29.
(18) Firenze Fire - (39 points) - He is easy to root for, but a mile and a quarter is too far. 25 of his 39 Kentucky Derby points were earned in one-turn mile races (Champagne, Jerome, Gotham). He breezed 3f in 39.70 (35/37) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on April 21, and returned with an easy half-mile breeze in 50.00 (52/83) at that same venue on April 28.
(19) Bravazo - (54 points) - He qualified for the Derby with a game prominent throughout victory in the Risen Star, but was up the track when last seen in the LA Derby. The Wayne Lukas trainee worked six furlongs from the gate at Churchill Downs in 1:15/40 (1/3) on April 20, and his final Derby breeze was a five-eighths exercise in 1:01.40 (11/55) on April 28.
(20) Promises Fulfilled - (50 points) - The Dale Romans trainee is the likely Derby front runner, but he probably won’t be around at the finish. He went all the way in the Fountain of Youth, but got caught in a speed duel before throwing in the towel in the Florida Derby. He breezed 5f in 59.20 (4/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and went that same distance in 1:00.40 (4/55) on April 28. Like Bravazo, he may have peaked over the winter.
(21) Blended Citizen (22 points) - The Derby also-eligible needs one defection to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Even if he gets in, he faces a very tall order from the far outside post position. He seems to prefer synthetic or turf footing.
Friday, April 27, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Combatant, Instilled Regard are in
We are now less than two weeks to Kentucky Derby 2018 and final workouts and the post position draw are the last pieces of the puzzle.
A couple of Derby points qualifiers have been removed from consideration. Tampa Bay Derby winner and Arkansas Derby runner-up Quip will bypass the Kentucky Derby and instead point to the Preakness. Also, European Road to the Derby qualifier Gronkowski has an infection and will not make the trip to Churchill Downs. He is expected to resume training next week and point to the Belmont Stakes. Those two defections have opened the door for Combatant and Instilled Regard.
Combatant earned his 32 Derby points the hard way. He landed the place in the Remington Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones, and Southwest Stakes, and finished 3rd in the Rebel Stakes. He picked up his final 10 points with a 4th place effort in the Arkansas Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen has confirmed that Ricardo Santana, Jr. will ride him in the Derby.
Instilled Regard started fast on the Derby points race trail with a place finish in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and a victory in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. He ended up 4th in his final two derby preps in the Risen Star Stakes and Santa Anita Derby.
Snapper Sinclair briefly moved up to the 21st spot on the Derby points list. He was expected to expected to run in the American Turf next, but will instead get some time off. Asmussen also had Reride on the outside looking in, but he is looking at the Preakness for that one, so that leaves Blended Citizen as the new Kentucky Derby points bubble horse. Trainer Doug O’Neill would like to run the latter in the Derby if the opportunity presents itself.
Combatant capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:24.20 (1/3) at Santa Anita Park on April 22.
Comments: He has been my top ranked Derby contender since I rolled out my first list on 9-25-17, and I see no reason to jump ship now. His six lifetime starts have produced four wins, a second, and a third, and the 3-time graded stakes winner (2 grade one wins) has a versatile running style. He had his first Derby work at Santa Anita Park on April 22. In his latest move, he was eager to work, getting his first half-mile in 46.60, and cruising through five panels in a brisk 58.40. He finished his workout on the clubhouse turn under slight urging. He is scheduled to work again on April 28, prior to shipping to Churchill Downs on April 30. Victor Espinoza will ride him on the first Saturday in May, and he has won the Kentucky Derby three times (War Emblem, California Chrome, American Pharaoh).
Derby Points (104)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f breeze in :48.00 (8/77) at Keeneland on April 21.
Comments: The 2-year-old champion was a flat 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but he quickly put that effort in the rear view mirror after a rock solid stalk and pounce victory from an outer post position in the Blue Grass Stakes (150 Final Rating) at Keeneland on April 7. The 2017 BC Juvenile remains his best overall number, which is not a great sign, but the Blue Grass was definitely a step in the right direction. It is now becoming clear that trainer Chad Brown has methodically brought him along slowly this year, and he appears to be sitting on a top effort in the Kentucky Derby. His April 21 workout at Keeneland was excellent. The solo half-mile move was strong from start to finish, and he went an additional eighth of a mile in 1:01.40, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.60. He jogged a mile and a half on April 24 and will have his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs.
Derby Points (134)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.40 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on April 20.
Comments: There is not much that this New York-bred colt cannot do. He brings a four-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby, and he can beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He sat in 2nd in his romping Holy Bull Stakes victory (moderate pace). In the Florida Derby, the pace was smoking hot, and he rallied from 8th place. Due to his longstanding relationship with trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Javier Castellano chose Audible over Bolt d’Oro for the Kentucky Derby. The $500,000 colt has never been a strong work horse, but his April 13 bullet was an exception. In that move, he worked inside older stablemate You’re to Blame, and finished on even terms after moving outside (pulled clear on the gallop out in 1:02.22). He worked in company with 2017 Derby also-ran Patch on April 20, and pulled well clear on the gallop out in 1:15.80. The only possible knock in his pedigree, which is not suited to a mile and a quarter.
Derby Points (110)
(4) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 147 (SA Derby, SA, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:13.20 (4/16) at Santa Anita Park on April 21.
Comments: The likely Kentucky Derby favorite could be any kind after easily winning all three of his starts this year including a facile wire job in the SA Derby under Mike Smith. The 20-horse Kentucky Derby stampede is a whole new ballgame, and it takes much more than raw talent to succeed on the first Saturday in May. He had the first of his two Derby workouts at Santa Anita Park on April 21, and it was a solid company drill. He got five furlongs in 1:00.80 and six panels in 1:13.20 before galloping out seven-eighths in 1:26.80 under his exercise rider Drayden Van Dyke. He started slow and finished fast, getting his final three furlongs in 36.00.
Derby Points (100)
(5) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Comments: He used his tactical speed and strong finishing kick to perfection in his first three wins, including a big Derby points race tally in the Rebel Stakes. He brought two bullet workouts into the Arkansas Derby, and went to the lead (slow pace) and never looked back in an easy triumph over pace presser Quip. It is easy to look good visually when everything is handed to you on a silver platter, and the same can be said of Justify. How will he handle a less than ideal trip in 20-horse Derby field? Apollo in 1882 was the last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby. He returned to his Palm Beach Downs base in Florida after the Arkansas Derby, and shipped to Churchill Downs on April 23.
Derby Points (150)
(6) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Aidan O’Brien)
Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17)
Comments: The UAE Derby has not been the preferred road to the Kentucky Derby to say the least, but this colt won the aforementioned Dubai race by a commanding eighteen lengths. Beholder’s $3 million half-brother shipped to Del Mar and won a productive renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. In seven lifetime starts, he rattled off four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. He is one of the most intriguing overseas invaders to ever compete at Churchill Downs.
Derby Points (100)
(7) VINO ROSSO (Curlin - Mythical Bride, by Street Cry)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Wood Memorial, AQU, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.65 (5/14) at Palm Beach Downs on April 20.
Comments: The Wood Memorial hero has been hitting all the right notes since that breakout performance. In his most recent workout on April 20, he drew away from older stakes winner Outplay, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.77. John Velazquez is his Derby pilot, and he has the pedigree to handle ten furlongs.
Derby Points (107)
(8) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 3f bullet in :35.20 (1/36) at Santa Anita Park on April 23.
Comments: Gem of consistency has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in all six starts. He has not won since breaking his maiden in his career debut, but he did cross the line first in the Los Alamitos Futurity (disqualified and placed 3rd). He has not shown a winning spirit in the stakes ranks, and the hard trying grinder has not developed a winning running style. He fired a three furlong bullet on April 23 and will have one more workout at Santa Anita before departing for Churchill Downs.
Derby Points (54)
(9) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.00 (1/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21.
Comments: He earned 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Ratings in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and in his first two starts this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd) and Gotham Stakes (finished 3rd). In his final Derby prep on April 7, he was placed 3rd via disqualification in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (138 Final Rating). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He uncorked a big bullet at Churchill Downs on April 21, and jogged a mile on April 24. He might be rounding back into top form.
Derby Points (44)
(10) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:15.00 (1/2) at Palm Beach Downs on April 20.
Comments: The Louisiana Derby winner is not afraid to get into a pace battle, and that determination to win is a big asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby. His LA Derby pilot John Velazquez has opted to ride Vino Rosso in the Derby, and Florent Geroux is now available after Quip, another WinStar runner, opted to point to the Preakness Stakes. He had his first Derby workout on April 6, and breezed again in Florida on April 13. In his latest move on April 20, he was well clear of overmatched workmate Road to Damascus.
Derby Points (110)
(11) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.20 (2/7) at Palm Meadows on April 19.
Comments: The Champagne Stakes show finisher (Good Magic 2nd) ended his 2-year-old campaign with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The latter key race produced subsequent stakes winners Bravazo, Diamond King, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Reride. He was 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. In his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial on April 7 (141 Final Rating), he stalked, took the lead, and was second best behind sharp winner Vino Rosso. In his latest workout on April 19, he traveled in company with Take Charge Paula, and he edged clear of his multiple Grade 2-placed workmate. It was a solid morning move, but I am concerned that his best speed rating was earned in a one-turn mile event.
Derby Points (103)
THE NEXT NINE:
(12) Hofburg - (40 points) - Bill Mott’s Florida Derby runner-up late bloomer appears to be developing rapidly. He worked in company with Good Samaritan on April 15, and got the better of his classy older work mate by a head. They galloped out 5f in 1:01.37, and kept on going another furlong (1:15.30). He impressed again in his April 22 bullet in 1:01.40 (1/6). He was expected to arrive at Churchill Downs on April 24, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be his Kentucky Derby pilot. Looking ahead to the Belmont Stakes, he would appear to be well-suited to that race, along with Vino Rosso.
(13) My Boy Jack (32 points) - The late runner definitely earned his Derby stripes in the Sham Stakes (3rd), Southwest Stakes (1st), LA Derby (3rd), and Lexington Stakes (1st). He could easily land a share for Team Desormeaux if the Derby pace heats up, but at this stage he seems to prefer a mile and a sixteenth. West Point Thoroughbreds has purchased an interest in the Creative Cause colt. He galloped a mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs on April 24, and is expected to breeze on April 28.
(14) Flameaway - (70 points) - He ranks up there with My Boy Jack as a likeable overachiever. He has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf, and has competed in eight stakes races with four wins, and a pair of 2nds. The early/pressing type never stops trying. He breezed 5f in 1:00.40 (12/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21. He galloped a mile on April 24 and is scheduled to work again on April 28. Jose Lezcano is his Derby pilot.
(15) Lone Sailor - (40 points) - His lone points race success was a rallying 2nd in the LA Derby. He will be passing tired horses in the Kentucky Derby, and a minor award is not impossible. In his latest Derby move, he drilled a five furlong bullet in :57.60 (1/19) at Churchill Downs on April 19. He galloped a mile and a half on April 24 for trainer Tom Amoss.
(16) Combatant - (32 points) - He settled for minor awards in all five of his Derby points race events. The late mover will be passing tired horses, and he can be used in the trifecta and superfecta.
(17) Instilled Regard (29 points) - A couple of late defections has landed him in the Derby field. His improvement pattern ended after the Jan. 13 Lecomte, and that is not a positive pattern. He worked 5f in 1:01.00 (37/96) at Santa Anita on April 21.
(18) Firenze Fire - (39 points) - He is easy to root for, but a mile and a quarter is too far. 25 of his 39 Kentucky Derby points were earned in one-turn mile races (Champagne, Jerome, Gotham). He breezed 3f in 39.70 (35/37) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on April 21.
(19) Bravazo - (54 points) - He qualified for the Derby with a game prominent throughout victory in the Risen Star, but was up the track when last seen in the LA Derby. The Wayne Lukas trainee worked six furlongs from the gate at Churchill Downs in 1:15.40 (1/3) on April 20.
(20) Promises Fulfilled - (50 points) - The Dale Romans trainee is the likely Derby front runner, but he probably won’t be around at the finish. He went all the way in the Fountain of Youth, but got caught in a speed duel before throwing in the towel in the Florida Derby. He breezed 5f in 59.20 (4/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and jogged one mile on April 24.
ON OUTSIDE LOOKING IN: (21) Blended Citizen, (22) Dream Baby Dream - 20 points, (23) Restoring Hope - 20 points.
A couple of Derby points qualifiers have been removed from consideration. Tampa Bay Derby winner and Arkansas Derby runner-up Quip will bypass the Kentucky Derby and instead point to the Preakness. Also, European Road to the Derby qualifier Gronkowski has an infection and will not make the trip to Churchill Downs. He is expected to resume training next week and point to the Belmont Stakes. Those two defections have opened the door for Combatant and Instilled Regard.
Combatant earned his 32 Derby points the hard way. He landed the place in the Remington Springboard Mile, Smarty Jones, and Southwest Stakes, and finished 3rd in the Rebel Stakes. He picked up his final 10 points with a 4th place effort in the Arkansas Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen has confirmed that Ricardo Santana, Jr. will ride him in the Derby.
Instilled Regard started fast on the Derby points race trail with a place finish in the Los Alamitos Futurity, and a victory in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. He ended up 4th in his final two derby preps in the Risen Star Stakes and Santa Anita Derby.
Snapper Sinclair briefly moved up to the 21st spot on the Derby points list. He was expected to expected to run in the American Turf next, but will instead get some time off. Asmussen also had Reride on the outside looking in, but he is looking at the Preakness for that one, so that leaves Blended Citizen as the new Kentucky Derby points bubble horse. Trainer Doug O’Neill would like to run the latter in the Derby if the opportunity presents itself.
Combatant capture above and speed figures below courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
Jarrod Horak’s “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:24.20 (1/3) at Santa Anita Park on April 22.
Comments: He has been my top ranked Derby contender since I rolled out my first list on 9-25-17, and I see no reason to jump ship now. His six lifetime starts have produced four wins, a second, and a third, and the 3-time graded stakes winner (2 grade one wins) has a versatile running style. He had his first Derby work at Santa Anita Park on April 22. In his latest move, he was eager to work, getting his first half-mile in 46.60, and cruising through five panels in a brisk 58.40. He finished his workout on the clubhouse turn under slight urging. He is scheduled to work again on April 28, prior to shipping to Churchill Downs on April 30. Victor Espinoza will ride him on the first Saturday in May, and he has won the Kentucky Derby three times (War Emblem, California Chrome, American Pharaoh).
Derby Points (104)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 4f breeze in :48.00 (8/77) at Keeneland on April 21.
Comments: The 2-year-old champion was a flat 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but he quickly put that effort in the rear view mirror after a rock solid stalk and pounce victory from an outer post position in the Blue Grass Stakes (150 Final Rating) at Keeneland on April 7. The 2017 BC Juvenile remains his best overall number, which is not a great sign, but the Blue Grass was definitely a step in the right direction. It is now becoming clear that trainer Chad Brown has methodically brought him along slowly this year, and he appears to be sitting on a top effort in the Kentucky Derby. His April 21 workout at Keeneland was excellent. The solo half-mile move was strong from start to finish, and he went an additional eighth of a mile in 1:01.40, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.60. He jogged a mile and a half on April 24 and will have his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs.
Derby Points (134)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.40 (1/4) at Palm Beach Downs on April 20.
Comments: There is not much that this New York-bred colt cannot do. He brings a four-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby, and he can beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He sat in 2nd in his romping Holy Bull Stakes victory (moderate pace). In the Florida Derby, the pace was smoking hot, and he rallied from 8th place. Due to his longstanding relationship with trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Javier Castellano chose Audible over Bolt d’Oro for the Kentucky Derby. The $500,000 colt has never been a strong work horse, but his April 13 bullet was an exception. In that move, he worked inside older stablemate You’re to Blame, and finished on even terms after moving outside (pulled clear on the gallop out in 1:02.22). He worked in company with 2017 Derby also-ran Patch on April 20, and pulled well clear on the gallop out in 1:15.80. The only possible knock in his pedigree, which is not suited to a mile and a quarter.
Derby Points (110)
(4) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 147 (SA Derby, SA, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:13.20 (4/16) at Santa Anita Park on April 21.
Comments: The likely Kentucky Derby favorite could be any kind after easily winning all three of his starts this year including a facile wire job in the SA Derby under Mike Smith. The 20-horse Kentucky Derby stampede is a whole new ballgame, and it takes much more than raw talent to succeed on the first Saturday in May. He had the first of his two Derby workouts at Santa Anita Park on April 21, and it was a solid company drill. He got five furlongs in 1:00.80 and six panels in 1:13.20 before galloping out seven-eighths in 1:26.80 under his exercise rider Drayden Van Dyke. He started slow and finished fast, getting his final three furlongs in 36.00.
Derby Points (100)
(5) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (Rebel Stakes, OP, 3-17-18)
Comments: He used his tactical speed and strong finishing kick to perfection in his first three wins, including a big Derby points race tally in the Rebel Stakes. He brought two bullet workouts into the Arkansas Derby, and went to the lead (slow pace) and never looked back in an easy triumph over pace presser Quip. It is easy to look good visually when everything is handed to you on a silver platter, and the same can be said of Justify. How will he handle a less than ideal trip in 20-horse Derby field? Apollo in 1882 was the last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby. He returned to his Palm Beach Downs base in Florida after the Arkansas Derby, and shipped to Churchill Downs on April 23.
Derby Points (150)
(6) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Aidan O’Brien)
Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17)
Comments: The UAE Derby has not been the preferred road to the Kentucky Derby to say the least, but this colt won the aforementioned Dubai race by a commanding eighteen lengths. Beholder’s $3 million half-brother shipped to Del Mar and won a productive renewal of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. In seven lifetime starts, he rattled off four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. He is one of the most intriguing overseas invaders to ever compete at Churchill Downs.
Derby Points (100)
(7) VINO ROSSO (Curlin - Mythical Bride, by Street Cry)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Wood Memorial, AQU, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in 49.65 (5/14) at Palm Beach Downs on April 20.
Comments: The Wood Memorial hero has been hitting all the right notes since that breakout performance. In his most recent workout on April 20, he drew away from older stakes winner Outplay, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.77. John Velazquez is his Derby pilot, and he has the pedigree to handle ten furlongs.
Derby Points (107)
(8) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (Rebel Stakes, 3-17-18)
Latest Workout: 3f bullet in :35.20 (1/36) at Santa Anita Park on April 23.
Comments: Gem of consistency has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in all six starts. He has not won since breaking his maiden in his career debut, but he did cross the line first in the Los Alamitos Futurity (disqualified and placed 3rd). He has not shown a winning spirit in the stakes ranks, and the hard trying grinder has not developed a winning running style. He fired a three furlong bullet on April 23 and will have one more workout at Santa Anita before departing for Churchill Downs.
Derby Points (54)
(9) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f bullet in :59.00 (1/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21.
Comments: He earned 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Ratings in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and in his first two starts this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd) and Gotham Stakes (finished 3rd). In his final Derby prep on April 7, he was placed 3rd via disqualification in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (138 Final Rating). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He uncorked a big bullet at Churchill Downs on April 21, and jogged a mile on April 24. He might be rounding back into top form.
Derby Points (44)
(10) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:15.00 (1/2) at Palm Beach Downs on April 20.
Comments: The Louisiana Derby winner is not afraid to get into a pace battle, and that determination to win is a big asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby. His LA Derby pilot John Velazquez has opted to ride Vino Rosso in the Derby, and Florent Geroux is now available after Quip, another WinStar runner, opted to point to the Preakness Stakes. He had his first Derby workout on April 6, and breezed again in Florida on April 13. In his latest move on April 20, he was well clear of overmatched workmate Road to Damascus.
Derby Points (110)
(11) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 161 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.20 (2/7) at Palm Meadows on April 19.
Comments: The Champagne Stakes show finisher (Good Magic 2nd) ended his 2-year-old campaign with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The latter key race produced subsequent stakes winners Bravazo, Diamond King, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Reride. He was 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. In his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial on April 7 (141 Final Rating), he stalked, took the lead, and was second best behind sharp winner Vino Rosso. In his latest workout on April 19, he traveled in company with Take Charge Paula, and he edged clear of his multiple Grade 2-placed workmate. It was a solid morning move, but I am concerned that his best speed rating was earned in a one-turn mile event.
Derby Points (103)
THE NEXT NINE:
(12) Hofburg - (40 points) - Bill Mott’s Florida Derby runner-up late bloomer appears to be developing rapidly. He worked in company with Good Samaritan on April 15, and got the better of his classy older work mate by a head. They galloped out 5f in 1:01.37, and kept on going another furlong (1:15.30). He impressed again in his April 22 bullet in 1:01.40 (1/6). He was expected to arrive at Churchill Downs on April 24, and Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be his Kentucky Derby pilot. Looking ahead to the Belmont Stakes, he would appear to be well-suited to that race, along with Vino Rosso.
(13) My Boy Jack (32 points) - The late runner definitely earned his Derby stripes in the Sham Stakes (3rd), Southwest Stakes (1st), LA Derby (3rd), and Lexington Stakes (1st). He could easily land a share for Team Desormeaux if the Derby pace heats up, but at this stage he seems to prefer a mile and a sixteenth. West Point Thoroughbreds has purchased an interest in the Creative Cause colt. He galloped a mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs on April 24, and is expected to breeze on April 28.
(14) Flameaway - (70 points) - He ranks up there with My Boy Jack as a likeable overachiever. He has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf, and has competed in eight stakes races with four wins, and a pair of 2nds. The early/pressing type never stops trying. He breezed 5f in 1:00.40 (12/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21. He galloped a mile on April 24 and is scheduled to work again on April 28. Jose Lezcano is his Derby pilot.
(15) Lone Sailor - (40 points) - His lone points race success was a rallying 2nd in the LA Derby. He will be passing tired horses in the Kentucky Derby, and a minor award is not impossible. In his latest Derby move, he drilled a five furlong bullet in :57.60 (1/19) at Churchill Downs on April 19. He galloped a mile and a half on April 24 for trainer Tom Amoss.
(16) Combatant - (32 points) - He settled for minor awards in all five of his Derby points race events. The late mover will be passing tired horses, and he can be used in the trifecta and superfecta.
(17) Instilled Regard (29 points) - A couple of late defections has landed him in the Derby field. His improvement pattern ended after the Jan. 13 Lecomte, and that is not a positive pattern. He worked 5f in 1:01.00 (37/96) at Santa Anita on April 21.
(18) Firenze Fire - (39 points) - He is easy to root for, but a mile and a quarter is too far. 25 of his 39 Kentucky Derby points were earned in one-turn mile races (Champagne, Jerome, Gotham). He breezed 3f in 39.70 (35/37) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on April 21.
(19) Bravazo - (54 points) - He qualified for the Derby with a game prominent throughout victory in the Risen Star, but was up the track when last seen in the LA Derby. The Wayne Lukas trainee worked six furlongs from the gate at Churchill Downs in 1:15.40 (1/3) on April 20.
(20) Promises Fulfilled - (50 points) - The Dale Romans trainee is the likely Derby front runner, but he probably won’t be around at the finish. He went all the way in the Fountain of Youth, but got caught in a speed duel before throwing in the towel in the Florida Derby. He breezed 5f in 59.20 (4/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and jogged one mile on April 24.
ON OUTSIDE LOOKING IN: (21) Blended Citizen, (22) Dream Baby Dream - 20 points, (23) Restoring Hope - 20 points.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)