Breeders' Cup 2023 Sire Justify

 

By Jarrod Horak

This is my fourth article in my five-part Breeders’ Cup sires series. So far, I have covered 2007 Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Curlin, 2017 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Good Magic, and 2017 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Gun Runner, and next up is Triple Crown 2018 hero Justify.  

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Early Race Record

Justify (Scat Daddy – Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper) burst onto the scene with a sensational extended sprint maiden romp at Santa Anita Park as the 1-2 favorite on February 18, 2018. He returned three weeks later and ran off the screen as the overwhelming betting choice in a flat mile allowance race. Bob Baffert’s very promising colt would make his stakes debut about a month later in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, and he set the pace as the chalk and kicked away from multiple graded winner Bolt d’Oro. 

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Kentucky Oaks 2023 Video Series: Las Virgenes Stakes

Here is my latest road to #kyoaks 2023 video featuring analysis of the Las Virgenes Stakes.   

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Desi Arnaz Stakes 2022 Video Analysis

Here is my latest horse racing video featuring analysis of the Desi Arnaz Stakes from Del Mar.  

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Belmont Stakes 2018 Blog and Video

Justify has answered all of the questions after five career starts, and the 2018 Belmont Stakes figures to be his toughest test to date. Can he complete an improbable Triple Crown sweep, or will he be another in a long line of Belmont Park close calls and near misses? 

​BELMONT STAKES 2018 FIELD (in post position order, with comments)

Belmont Park Race 11 (6-9-18) - Post Time - 6:46pm ET

#1 - Justify (4-5) - The unbeaten Triple Crown hopeful owns descending numbers and might be over the top. Jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bob Baffert know how to win the Belmont Stakes. His best chance is to control proceedings throughout, just like American Pharoah did in 2015.

#2 - Free Drop Billy (30-1) - Son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags is firing bullets for this and might show more speed than expected. 

#3 - Bravazo (8-1) - Preakness runner-up is rounding back into form and is capable of turning the tables on Justify. His trainer D. Wayne Lukas has saddled four Belmont Stakes winners.  

#4 - Hofburg (9-2) - Florida Derby runner-up found trouble in the 20-horse Derby stampede. He is lightly raced and appears to be sitting on a top effort.  He has the best long distance pedigree, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and trainer Bill Mott have both won the Belmont Stakes before.

#5 - Restoring Hope (30-1) - Wood Memorial show finisher disliked the sloppy track in the Pat Day Mile. He is the other Baffert runner.  

#6 - Gronkowski (12-1) - Got sick and missed the Kentucky Derby, and his new trainer Chad Brown chose this ambitious spot for his US bow. He is training well, and jockey Jose Ortiz guided home Tapwrit in the 2017 Belmont Stakes.  

#7  - Tenfold (12-1) - Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing. He tries to give trainer Steve Asmussen his second Belmont Stakes winner (saddled 2016 Belmont hero Creator). 

#8 - Vino Rosso (8-1) - Wood Memorial winner raced wide from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and the wet track did not help either. He can bounce back for John Velazquez (2 Belmont wins) and Todd Pletcher (3 Belmont Stakes wins). 

#9 - Noble Indy (30-1) - He is the second entrant for Pletcher. He failed to show his customary early speed from post 19 in the Kentucky Derby. He was all over the pace in his game G2 LA Derby win, and he should be close up from the outset under Javier Castellano. 

#10 - Blended Citizen (15-1) - G3 Peter Pan winner is the only entrant with Belmont Park experience, and two of his wins were at 9f. He is improving and should be rallying from off the pace. He he seems to be improving at the right time.   

Written by Jarrod Horak (The Runaway Horse Founder and Handicapper)

Photo by Josh Chicorelli (The Runaway Horse Handicapper)

Video Editor: Stacy Edwards (The Runaway Horse Photographer/Video Editor)

Belmont Stakes 2018 Blog and Video featuring Triple Crown hopeful Justify

Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Justify is one race away from sweeping the 2018 Triple Crown series for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith. 

Bob Baffert had three runners win the Derby and Preakness before losing the Belmont Stakes (War Emblem, Silver Charm, Real Quiet). Point Given was his first Belmont Stakes winner in 2001, and American Pharoah completed the Triple Crown sweep with a front running victory in the 2015 Belmont Stakes. 

Veteran jockey Mike Smith used to be a regular on the New York circuit back in the day, and he has two Belmont Stakes wins to his credit (Drosselmeyer, Palace Malice). 

With a bit more than a week to go, up to eleven horses are expected to try to spoil Justify’s Triple Crown party.   

Belmont Stakes 2018 Probable Field (as of 6-1-18):

Bandua: His trainer Dermot Weld saddled 1990 Belmont Stakes winner Go and Go. As of this writing, his chances of shipping to New York are 50/50.  

Blended Citizen: Doug O’Neill’s Peter Pan Stakes winner can seemingly run all day. The last Peter Pan winner to capture the Belmont Stakes was Tonalist in 2014. 

Bravazo: The G2 Risen Star winner returned to form in a strong place finish in the Preakness Stakes. Wayne Lukas turned back the clock and worked the son of Awesome Again at flat mile at Churchill Downs earlier this week.  

Free Drop Billy: Trainer Dale Romans says the longer the better for the son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags. Look for him to stalk the Belmont pace under Robby Albarado.  

Gronkowski: He got sick and missed a scheduled start in the Kentucky Derby. Chad Brown trains the overseas synthetic specialist now, and he had his first Belmont Stakes workout on May 26. He is expected to work one more time this weekend. His jockey Jose Ortiz won last year's Belmont aboard Tapwrit. 

Hofburg: Bill Mott won the 2010 Belmont Stakes with Drosselmeyer, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. guided Creator home in the 2016 Belmont Stakes. This lightly raced colt was 2nd in the Florida Derby and 7th in the Kentucky Derby in his last two starts. 

Justify: The Triple Crown is clearly within reach for the unbeaten son of Scat Daddy. He fired a big half-mile bullet workout at Churchill Downs on May 29. Look for him to be on or near the lead with 2-3 furlongs to go, and that is where the litmus test begins.   

Noble Indy: His trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners, and Jockey Javier Castellano is still searching for his first Belmont victory. The LA Derby hero was hung out to dry from post 19 on a wet track in the Kentucky Derby. He has speed, is training well, and should be forwardly placed on June 9. 

Restoring Hope: Justify’s stablemate failed to handle the wet surface in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Before that, he landed the show in the Wood Memorial. Flavien Prat will ride the grinding type.   

Seahenge: He won an overseas Group 2 event last year as a juvenile for Aidan O’Brien. In his last two starts, he was 5th in the UAE Derby and 7th in the Pat Day Mile.  

Tenfold: The Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing for Steve Asmussen (saddled Belmont Stakes winner Creator in 2016). He will probably stalk the pace at Big Sandy. 

Vino Rosso: The Wood Memorial winner had no shot from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and he ended up a respectable 9th on a wet track that day. His sire Curlin just missed in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, and his rider John Velazquez has two Belmont wins (Rags to Riches, Union Rags). As mentioned earlier, trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners.  

Preakness Stakes 2018 Recap & Belmont Stakes Preview Video

Click here to read my Preakness recap/Belmont preview blog. 

Preakness Stakes Video Preview: Justify vs. Good Magic

Check out my Preakness 2018 preview for Today's Racing Digest, and visit The Runaway Horse Preakness 2018 page for extensive coverage on the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Kentucky Derby 2018 Recap + Preakness Preview Video

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2018 recap plus Preakness recap video for Today's Racing Digest below. 

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Kentucky Derby 2018 Video Preview Featuring Justfiy, Mendelssohn, Good Magic, and Bolt d'Oro

Check out my Kentucky Derby 2018 video preview for Today's Racing Digest. 

Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Justify Headlines Derby Field

Post positions have been drawn for Kentucky Derby 2018 and we are a few days away from the big dance. Justify, the 3-1 morning line favorite, will break from post position seven. 

Inner posts can be the kiss of death in the Derby. My Derby top Lookin At Lucky had a miserable trip from the rail in 2010, but came back two weeks later to capture the Preakness. 

My Derby top Union Rags was shuffled out of contention from an inner post in 2012 but returned five weeks later to capture the Belmont Stakes. His son Free Drop Billy drew post two this year and might get shuffled back early. 

For Derby post positions, I want my top win contenders to be as far away from the rail post as possible and 2015 was a good example. Early/pressing type American Pharoah drew post 18 and moved in a bit after scratches. He was free and clear and in the hunt throughout and his outer draw was the key to his victory over Firing Line and Dortmund.

Nyquist stalked the pace from post 13 en route to a 1-1/4 length victory over late striding Exaggerator in Kentucky Derby 2016. 

The last four Derby winners (California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming) all had early/pressing versatility and comfortable forwardly placed trips from advantageous post positions. 

From a 2018 post position standpoint, all of the main contenders landed decent positions. I think Mendelssohn did very well to land post 14. He should attend the pace while in the clear, and his draw seems to enhance his chances. 

Bolt d’Oro was a big post position winner after landing 11. He projects a free and clear stalking trip. 

Good Magic could fall into a beautiful ground saving stalking trip behind the speed. He could easily ride the inner portion of the track to victory. 

Magnum Moon should not have any issues from post 16 and will probably stalk the pace outside. 

As for post time favorite Justify, he did okay getting post 7. The key to his success is relaxing early behind likely front runner Promises Fulfilled from post 3. Flameaway has been on the engine this week, and he figures to attend the pace from post 4. 

Audible is versatile and Javier Castellano will probably take up a tactical position from post 5. 

At the other end of the spectrum, Firenze Fire drew the dreaded rail, but he was not a serious top four contender anyway. Combatant might have a tough go of it from post 20. 

Noble Indy might be in trouble from post 19. He likes to be forwardly placed and could end up wide chasing lively fractions. 

Solomini does not really have an effective winning running style, and whatever Flavien Prat decides, he better make a quick decision from post 17. 

Vino Rosso will likely be coming from off the pace under John Velazquez from post 18. I would not say that he was a post position winner. It all depends on the break, and he may or may not end up with a wide or uncomfortable journey. 

Everybody else did fine in the draw department including Lone Sailor (post 8), Hofburg (9), My Boy Jack (10), Enticed, (12), Bravazo, (13), and Instilled Regard (15). Blended Citizen is on the also-eligible list. 

Jarrod Horak’s Final “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders

(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)

Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)

Latest Workout: 4f in :48.20 (10/70) at Santa Anita Park on April 28. 

Comments: He has been my top ranked Derby contender since I rolled out my first list on 9-25-17, and I see no reason to abandon him now. His six lifetime starts have produced four wins, a second, and a third, and the 3-time graded stakes winner (2 grade one wins) has a versatile running style. He had his first Derby work at Santa Anita Park on April 22. In that move, he was eager to work, getting his first half-mile in 46.60, and cruising through five panels in a brisk 58.40. He finished his work on the clubhouse turn under slight urging. In his final Derby work on April 28, he worked a rock solid solo half-mile under a very still Victor Espinoza, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times (War Emblem, California Chrome, American Pharaoh).   
       
Derby Points (104)

(2) GOOD MAGIC  (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)

Trainer (Chad Brown) 

Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.20 (8/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28. 

Comments: The 2-year-old champion was a flat 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but he quickly put that effort in the rear view mirror after a rock solid stalk and pounce victory from an outer post position in the Blue Grass Stakes (150 Final Rating) at Keeneland on April 7. The 2017 BC Juvenile remains his best overall number, which is not a great sign, but the Blue Grass was definitely a step in the right direction. Trainer Chad Brown has methodically brought him along slowly this year, and he appears to be sitting on a top effort in the Kentucky Derby. His April 21 workout at Keeneland was excellent. The solo half-mile move was strong from start to finish, and he went an additional eighth of a mile in 1:01.40, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.60. He had his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 28, and once again, he was impressive. His gallops leading up to the Derby have been strong as well.     

Derby Points (134) 

(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)  

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18) 

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (39/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.  

Comments: There is not much that this New York-bred colt cannot do. He brings a four-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby, and he beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He sat in 2nd in his romping Holy Bull Stakes victory (moderate pace). In the Florida Derby, the pace was smoking hot, and he rallied from 8th place. Due to his longstanding relationship with trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Javier Castellano chose Audible over Bolt d’Oro for the Kentucky Derby. The $500,000 colt has never been a strong work horse, but his April 13 bullet was an exception. In that move, he worked inside older stablemate You’re to Blame, and finished on even terms after moving outside (pulled clear on the gallop out in 1:02.22). He worked in company with 2017 Derby also-ran Patch on April 20, and pulled well clear on the gallop out in 1:15.80. The only possible knock in his pedigree, which is not suited to a mile and a quarter. 

Derby Points (110)

(4) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) 

Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 147 (SA Derby, SA, 4-7-18)

Latest Workout: 7f in 1:25.20 (1/1) at Santa Anita Park on April 27. 

Comments: The Kentucky Derby favorite has been going great guns since his sharp SA Derby wire job under Mike Smith. He had the first of his two Derby workouts at Santa Anita Park on April 21, and it was a solid move in company with Zipman. He got five furlongs in 1:00.80 and six panels in 1:13.20 before galloping out seven-eighths in 1:26.80 under his exercise rider Drayden Van Dyke. He started slow and finished fast, getting his final three furlongs in 36.00. In his final Derby move on April 27, he worked a strong seven panels (1:25.20) in company with recent maiden winner Longden (1-for-6 career record). Baffert caught the splits on his watch in 12.40, 24.40, 36.60, 49.20, 1:00.80, and 1:12.60. He galloped out a mile in 1:39.80. There is no denying his talent, and he is coming up to the race perfectly, but the 20-horse Derby stampede is a tall order for such an inexperienced horse.        

Derby Points (100)

(5) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Arkansas Derby, OP, 4-14-18)

Latest Workout: 4f in :47.40 (4/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27. 

Comments: He used his tactical speed and strong finishing kick to perfection in his first three wins, including a big Derby points race tally in the Rebel Stakes. He brought two bullet workouts into the Arkansas Derby, and went to the lead (slow pace) and never looked back in an easy triumph over pace presser Quip. It is easy to look good visually when everything is handed to you on a silver platter, and the same can be said of Justify. How will he handle a less than ideal trip in 20-horse Derby field? Apollo in 1882 was the last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby. He returned to his Palm Beach Downs base in Florida after the Arkansas Derby, and shipped to Churchill Downs on April 23.     

Derby Points (150)

(6) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)

Trainer (Aidan O’Brien) 

Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17) 

Comments: The UAE Derby has not been the preferred road to the Kentucky Derby to say the least, but this colt won the aforementioned Dubai race by a commanding eighteen lengths. Beholder’s $3 million half-brother shipped to Del Mar and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. In seven lifetime starts, he rattled off four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. He is one of the most intriguing overseas invaders to ever compete at Churchill Downs. He has arrived in Louisville and had his initial visit under the Twin Spires on May 3.  

Derby Points (100)

(7) VINO ROSSO (Curlin - Mythical Bride, by Street Cry)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Wood Memorial, AQU, 4-7-18) 

Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.20 (1/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27. 

Comments: The Wood Memorial hero has been hitting all the right notes since that breakout performance. In his workout on April 20, he drew away from older stakes winner Outplay, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.77. John Velazquez is his Derby pilot, and he has the pedigree to handle ten furlongs.  

Derby Points (107)

(8) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)

Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)

Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.60 (4/9) at Santa Anita Park on April 29. 

Comments: Gem of consistency has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in all six starts. He has not won since breaking his maiden in his career debut, but he did cross the line first in the Los Alamitos Futurity (disqualified and placed 3rd). He has not shown a winning spirit in the stakes ranks, and the hard trying grinder has not developed a winning running style. He fired a three furlong bullet on April 23, and his final Derby move on April 29 was solid. In his latest work at Santa Anita, he galloped out seven furlongs in 1:28.20  and changed leads on time, something he has not always done. Baffert has said that he will instruct jockey Flavien Prat to take him back and let him finish in the Derby, and that strategy was successful for him in the Los Al Fururity late last year. 

Derby Points (54)

(9) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)

Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)

Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (31/87) at Churchill Downs on April 28. 

Comments: He earned a 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and duplicated that number in in his first start this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd). In his final Derby prep on April 7, he was placed 3rd via disqualification in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (138 Final Rating). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He uncorked a big bullet at Churchill Downs on April 21, and jogged a mile on April 24. He might be rounding back into top form.  

Derby Points (44)

(10) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)

Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)

Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (24/43) at Churchill Downs on April 27. 

Comments: The Louisiana Derby winner is not afraid to get into a pace battle, and that determination to win is a big asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby. His LA Derby pilot John Velazquez has opted to ride Vino Rosso in the Derby, and Florent Geroux is his new pilot after Quip, another WinStar runner, opted to point to the Preakness Stakes. He had his first Derby workout on April 6, and breezed again in Florida on April 13. In his April 20 move, he was well clear of overmatched workmate Road to Damascus.    

Derby Points (110)  

(11) ENTICED  (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)

Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)

Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)

Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:00.25 (2/7) at Palm Meadows on April 26. 

Comments: The Champagne Stakes show finisher (Good Magic 2nd) ended his 2-year-old campaign with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The latter key race produced subsequent stakes winners Bravazo, Diamond King, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Reride. He was 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. In his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial on April 7 (141 Final Rating), he stalked, took the lead, and was second best behind sharp winner Vino Rosso. In his latest workout on April 19, he traveled in company with Take Charge Paula, and he edged clear of his multiple Grade 2-placed workmate. It was a solid morning move, but I am concerned that his best speed rating was earned in a one-turn mile event.   
​
Derby Points (103) 

THE NEXT NINE: 

(12) Hofburg - (40 points) - Bill Mott’s Florida Derby runner-up late bloomer appears to be developing rapidly. He worked in company with Good Samaritan on April 15, and got the better of his classy older work mate by a head. They galloped out 5f in 1:01.37, and kept on going another furlong (1:15.30). He drilled a five furlong bullet on April 22 in 1:01.40 (1/6), and impressed again in his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 29. In his latest move, he worked in company with 3-year-old filly Villamay, and he worked a strong half-mile with an energetic gallop out. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be his Kentucky Derby pilot. Like many others, he appears to be peaking at the right time, but looking ahead, the Belmont Stakes might be his coming out party, along with Vino Rosso.    

(13) My Boy Jack (32 points) - The late runner definitely earned his Derby stripes in the Sham Stakes (3rd), Southwest Stakes (1st), LA Derby (3rd), and Lexington Stakes (1st). He could easily land a share for Team Desormeaux if the Derby pace heats up, but at this stage he seems to prefer a mile and a sixteenth. West Point Thoroughbreds has purchased an interest in the Creative Cause colt. His lone Derby breeze was an easy five furlong maintenance move in 1:03.20 (46/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.  

(14) Flameaway - (70 points) - He ranks up there with My Boy Jack as a very likeable overachiever. He has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf, and has competed in eight stakes races with four wins, and a pair of 2nds. The early/pressing type never stops trying and has been on the muscle in his exercise leading up to the Derby. He breezed 5f in 1:00.40 (12/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and came back with a half-mile breeze in :47.80 (2/87) at Churchill on April 28. Jose Lezcano is his Derby pilot.   

(15) Lone Sailor - (40 points) - His lone points race success was a rallying 2nd in the LA Derby. He will be passing tired horses in the Kentucky Derby, and a minor award is not impossible, especially if the pace is swift. On April 19, he drilled a five furlong bullet in :57.60 (1/19) at Churchill Downs, and his final Derby move was a four furlong breeze in :48.00 (13/75) on April 27. 

(16) Combatant - (32 points) - He settled for minor awards in all five of his Derby points race events. The late mover will be passing tired horses, and he can be used in the trifecta and superfecta.  

(17) Instilled Regard (29 points) - A couple of late defections helped land him in the Derby field. His improvement pattern ended after his Jan. 13 Lecomte win, and that is not a positive pattern. He worked 5f in 1:01.00 (37/96) at Santa Anita on April 21, and came back with another five furlong move in 1:00.80 (3/62) at that same venue on April 29.  

(18) Firenze Fire - (39 points) - He is easy to root for, but a mile and a quarter is too far. 25 of his 39 Kentucky Derby points were earned in one-turn mile races (Champagne, Jerome, Gotham). He breezed 3f in 39.70 (35/37) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on April 21, and returned with an easy half-mile breeze in 50.00 (52/83) at that same venue on April 28.     

(19) Bravazo - (54 points) - He qualified for the Derby with a game prominent throughout victory in the Risen Star, but was up the track when last seen in the LA Derby. The Wayne Lukas trainee worked six furlongs from the gate at Churchill Downs in 1:15/40 (1/3) on April 20, and his final Derby breeze was a five-eighths exercise in 1:01.40 (11/55) on April 28.    

(20) Promises Fulfilled - (50 points)  - The Dale Romans trainee is the likely Derby front runner, but he probably won’t be around at the finish. He went all the way in the Fountain of Youth, but got caught in a speed duel before throwing in the towel in the Florida Derby. He breezed 5f in 59.20 (4/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and went that same distance in 1:00.40 (4/55) on April 28. Like Bravazo, he may have peaked over the winter.   

(21) Blended Citizen (22 points) - The Derby also-eligible needs one defection to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Even if he gets in, he faces a very tall order from the far outside post position. He seems to prefer synthetic or turf footing.