BREEDERS’ CUP 2019 STAKES RECAPS
Saturday, November 2, 2019
Check out Today's Racing Digest for handicapping products, analysis, and more! Bricks and Mortar capture above courtesy of Today's Racing Digest.
BC FILLY & MARE SPRINT - Winner: Covfefe ($5.00)
Covfefe was a solid win contender on paper. The big question was the kind of trip the early-pressing type would get from the rail. Danuska’s My Girl was drawn in post 2, and she was a bit quicker than Covfefe early, and Heavenhasmynikki joined the pace from post 3. Spiced Perfection tracked from the outside post, and the race was on. Covfefe put away the aforementioned three rivals and opened up a 2-1/2 length lead in the stretch. The race was really over at this point, but Bellafina made a sustained run and cut into the winning margin, which was 3/4ths of a length at the wire. Bellafina ran a big race over the speed friendly main track and was 7+ clear of late running show finisher Dawn the Destroyer. Spiced Perfection lost 3rd late, and was followed by Danuska’s My Girl, Come Dancing, Selcourt, Lady Ninja, and Heavenhasmynikki.
BC TURF SPRINT - Winner: Belvoir Bay ($31.60)
Having turf sprint experience at Santa Anita has been the key to success when the Turf Sprint is run at the Great Race Place. That is why I went with Eddie Haskell, but he was shuffled back more than once in a miserable trip. Peter Miller is a deadly turf sprint trainer, and his 2-time Turf Sprint winner Stormy Liberal tried to win the BC again, but he has lost a step and weakened after chasing the pace. Miller also saddled Belvoir Bay, and she made short work of this field. She cleared from post 12 under Javier Castellano and it was lights out. She was never threatened in a comfortable 1-1/4 length front running victory. Om chased from post 11 and just edged fellow forwardly placed runner Shekky Shebaz for runner-up honors. Stubbins was up for 4th and just ran out of ground. Pure Sensation raced evenly in 5th, and was followed across the line by Imprimis, Leinster, Stormy Liberal, Final Frontier, Totally Boss, Eddie Haskell, and Legends of War.
BC DIRT MILE - Winner: Spun to Run ($20.20)
Spun to Run went straight to the front and kept on finding in a sharp 2-3/4 length victory. Irad Ortiz Jr. rode like the best jockey in the country this weekend. He was outstanding on dirt and turf. He understood how both surfaces were playing and frequently put his horses in the right spot. Omaha Beach was the beaten favorite, and I was stunned to see him so far back early. I am not sure what jockey Mike Smith was thinking. He showed excellent tactical speed in the past and was in striking range throughout in his SA Sprint Championship (G1) return at six furlongs. He tracked Shancelot that day, and he is one of the fastest sprinters in the country. How could he be more than six lengths back from a perfect middle post in this one mile race? The even money favorite made a sustained wide run to finish a clear 2nd. Blue Chipper was ridden perfectly by Flavien Prat. The shipper from Korea chased the winner throughout and was best of the rest in 3rd. Even Snapper Sinclair from post 10 was positioned in front of Omaha Beach for the first half-mile or so. He ended up an okay 4th. Improbable was 5th as my top choice. I had the right idea in regards to looking for a front running winner, but I landed on the wrong horse. I do not blame Rafael Bejarano at all. He tried to get Improbable close to the pace from post 2, and he was pushing on him early. Unfortunately, he was not quick enough to get to the front, and he chased inside and was not able to make a serious impact. Coat Front, Mr. Money. Diamond Oops, and Ambassadorial were next, and Giant Expectations was the distant trailer.
BC FILLY & MARE TURF - Winner: Iridessa ($28.40)
I did not think Sistercharlie was a lock to repeat due to a strong overseas presence, but a top three finish was a near certainty. Mirth was a runaway early leader under Mike Smith, but she figured to find this company too classy, and that was the case. After Mirth came back to the field, the real running began. Vasilika was in the right spot under Flavien Prat. She was sitting a clear 2nd behind Mirth and was patiently waiting for that one to get tired. She had a good three-length cushion on Iridessa for at least the opening six furlongs. Her cushion over the eventual winner evaporated and they both went after the lead in the stretch. Based on the way the race shape played out, it really was a match race between the two chasers, and the overseas runner prevailed by a hard fought neck. Vasilika ran a winning race but came up just short while well clear of the rest. Sistercharlie outfinished my value top choice Fanny Logan for show honors, and they were followed across the line by Just Wonderful, Mirth, Villa Marina, Billesdon Brook, Mrs. Sippy, and Castle Lady.
BC SPRINT - Winner: Mitole ($5.60)
This was a classic case of pure speed vs. class. Shancelot was wickedly fast early, and Mitole was a multiple G1 winner between 7-8 furlongs. Shancelot was my best bet top pick, and he put in a dazzling opening quarter in 21.47. Mitole was training lights out for this engagement and he sat the Omaha Beach trip. That one chased Shancelot and ran him down in the local prep for this, and it was Mitole’s turn today. The Steve Asmussen trainee came after Shancelot in the stretch and class prevailed by a length and a quarter under Ricardo Santana Jr. Shancelot did everything but win in an excellent clear place finish under his new rider Jose Ortiz. One of the closers figured to get a piece, and last year’s Sprint runner-up Whitmore took show honors this year under Flavien Prat. Engage was an okay 4th, and Firenze Fire was right behind him. Hog Creek Hustle was another nose back in 6th, and Catalina Cruiser and Matera Sky trailed.
BC MILE - Winner: Uni ($9.20)
Even though the pace scenario was muddled in this 13-horse field, it really did look like a match race between the two ladies. Got Stormy was my top choice based on her tactical speed and nice middle draw. Uni was more of a late runner and figured to need racing luck, but there was no denying her electric turn of foot in the stretch. The pace was honest with Hey Gaman, El Tormenta, and Bowies Hero from post 12 taking the first three spots early. True Valour was next, and Got Stormy was in a great spot in 5th. The latter got the first run as expected, but Uni was uncorking a big run under Joel Rosario. If it wasn’t the Ortiz brothers, it was Rosario this weekend, and trainer Chad Brown had a sensational BC as well. Uni’s strong late kick was just too much for Got Stormy and the final margin of victory was a length and a half. Got Stormy was second best in a strong effort, and Without Parole was along for 3rd under Irad Ortiz Jr. The latter might be one to watch next year for Chad Brown. Circus Maximus just missed holding the show, and Bowies Hero was behind him. Flavien Prat gave the latter a fighting chance from an outside post. Definitely cannot fault that ride. El Tormenta, Hey Gaman, Space Traveler, Lord Glitters, and True Valour were next. There was a dead-heat for 11th place between Lucullan and Train Fluors, and Next Shares trailed throughout from post 13.
BC DISTAFF - Winner: Blue Prize ($19.80)
I was wrong about Blue Prize. She was not my top pick in the BC Distaff last year, but I thought she had a good shot at her home track (Churchill Downs). At Churchill and Keeneland, she is really good, but I did not think she could elevate her game on the road in SoCal, especially from post 11. Wrong! Serengeti Empress ensured honest splits, and Flavien Prat gave her the ride and trip she needed. It looked like she might pull off a front running upset, but Blue Prize had all of the momentum from off the pace and Joe Bravo simply outmaneuvered Mike Smith. The latter jockey was aboard strong favorite Midnight Bisou, and I am surprised that she did not win this race. She was 7-for-7 this year and this race set up perfectly for her. She was four positions in front of Blue Prize early, and was still in front of that one after the first half-mile. Blue Prize made her move shortly after that, and that was the difference maker. Midnight Bisou was a 1/2 length in front of the winner after a half, but at the six furlong mark Blue Prize was a length in front of the chalk and moving forward. Blue Prize made that big, wide, sweeping move and won the race right there. Midnight Bisou angled out in the stretch and finished well but Blue Prize got the jump and already won the race at that point. Midnight Bisou was clearly second best and Serengeti Empress was best of the rest in 3rd. Ollie’s Candy chased the pace and ended up an even 4th under Joel Rosario (good ride). Dunbar Road was unable to get into the race and was taken out of her tactical game. She ended up an okay 5th. Not a bad effort for the lightly raced 3yo filly. Mo See Cal chased and retreated to 6th, and finishing behind her were Wow Cat, Street Band, Secret Spice, La Force, and Paradise Woods (broke slow from post 1, rushed up, faltered).
BC TURF - Winner: Bricks and Mortar ($4.00)
Bricks and Mortar probably sealed the deal for Horse of the Year with his victory in the Turf. Acclimate set the pace as expected, and the 40-1 longshot also weakened as anticipated by just about everyone. Hopefully some of the Today’s Racing Digest fans watched my BC Saturday video. I gave out a horse worth betting in each of the BC races, and my Turf horse to bet was United. He went off at 51-1, and he tracked the pace under Flavien Prat and almost pulled off one of the biggest BC upsets ever. He has the lead in the stretch but Bricks and Mortar got an outstanding patient ride and prevailed by a head. Who rode the winer? But of course it was Irad Ortiz Jr. Patience is the key in these marathons, and trainer Chad Brown pegged this one in interviews prior to this race. He said he wanted him patiently ridden in midpack and within striking range, and he got his wish. Quality trips and smart rides mean everything in these big races, and Ortiz Jr. did everything right again. United could not have run any better for Richard Mandella. This was his first marathon try and he has a bright future in these long distance turf races. This was no fluke. He is a quality turf runner in SoCal. Anthony Van Dyck did not have the smoothest journey under Ryan Moore. The overseas shipper ended up a solid 3rd. Zulu Alpha went from last to 4th, and was followed by Alounak, Mount Everest, Channel Cat, Arklow, Acclimate, Baudua, Old Persian, and Channel Maker.
BC CLASSIC - Winner: Vino Rosso ($11.20)
I was all over this one. Vino Rosso was my top choice because he was a sharp, fresh, tactical G1 winner at the Classic course/distance. It did not hurt to have Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle either, and he put Todd Pletcher’s colt in the right spot throughout. War of Will was the early leader but he was way too slow on paper and retreated as expected. McKinzie was in a great forward spot under Joel Rosario. This is the ride and trip the Bob Baffert trainee needed. Unfortunately for him, a mile and a quarter is a bit beyond his reach. He took the lead around the far turn and into the stretch, but Vino Rosso never looked like a loser. He was traveling smoothly in 4th, ranged up outside McKinzie in the stretch, and pulled well clear to win by 4-1/4 lengths. He was much the best in this race. Higher Power rallied from midpack and was best of the rest in 3rd under Flavien Prat. Elate ended up too far back early and was well clear of the rest in 4th under Jose Ortiz. The top four BC jockeys dominated the Classic superfecta. Math Wizard rallied from last to get 5th, and picked up 3% of the purse in the process. I am sure his connections are happy with that $180k result. Seeking the Soul and Code of Honor were next, followed by Yoshida, War of Will, and Owendale. Mongolian Groom chased the pace under Abel Cedillo before suffering an injury to his left hind leg in the stretch. He was pulled up and vanned off, and could not be saved in a very sad ending to the 2019 BC races.
Article by Jarrod Horak
Showing posts with label Vino Rosso. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Vino Rosso. Show all posts
Sunday, December 1, 2019
Saturday, October 19, 2019
Breeders' Cup Classic 2019 Video Preview Featuring Code of Honor & McKinzie
Check out my Breeders' Cup Classic 2019 video preview below!
Saturday, June 9, 2018
Belmont Stakes 2018 Blog and Video
Justify has answered all of the questions after five career starts, and the 2018 Belmont Stakes figures to be his toughest test to date. Can he complete an improbable Triple Crown sweep, or will he be another in a long line of Belmont Park close calls and near misses?
BELMONT STAKES 2018 FIELD (in post position order, with comments)
Belmont Park Race 11 (6-9-18) - Post Time - 6:46pm ET
#1 - Justify (4-5) - The unbeaten Triple Crown hopeful owns descending numbers and might be over the top. Jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bob Baffert know how to win the Belmont Stakes. His best chance is to control proceedings throughout, just like American Pharoah did in 2015.
#2 - Free Drop Billy (30-1) - Son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags is firing bullets for this and might show more speed than expected.
#3 - Bravazo (8-1) - Preakness runner-up is rounding back into form and is capable of turning the tables on Justify. His trainer D. Wayne Lukas has saddled four Belmont Stakes winners.
#4 - Hofburg (9-2) - Florida Derby runner-up found trouble in the 20-horse Derby stampede. He is lightly raced and appears to be sitting on a top effort. He has the best long distance pedigree, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and trainer Bill Mott have both won the Belmont Stakes before.
#5 - Restoring Hope (30-1) - Wood Memorial show finisher disliked the sloppy track in the Pat Day Mile. He is the other Baffert runner.
#6 - Gronkowski (12-1) - Got sick and missed the Kentucky Derby, and his new trainer Chad Brown chose this ambitious spot for his US bow. He is training well, and jockey Jose Ortiz guided home Tapwrit in the 2017 Belmont Stakes.
#7 - Tenfold (12-1) - Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing. He tries to give trainer Steve Asmussen his second Belmont Stakes winner (saddled 2016 Belmont hero Creator).
#8 - Vino Rosso (8-1) - Wood Memorial winner raced wide from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and the wet track did not help either. He can bounce back for John Velazquez (2 Belmont wins) and Todd Pletcher (3 Belmont Stakes wins).
#9 - Noble Indy (30-1) - He is the second entrant for Pletcher. He failed to show his customary early speed from post 19 in the Kentucky Derby. He was all over the pace in his game G2 LA Derby win, and he should be close up from the outset under Javier Castellano.
#10 - Blended Citizen (15-1) - G3 Peter Pan winner is the only entrant with Belmont Park experience, and two of his wins were at 9f. He is improving and should be rallying from off the pace. He he seems to be improving at the right time.
Written by Jarrod Horak (The Runaway Horse Founder and Handicapper)
Photo by Josh Chicorelli (The Runaway Horse Handicapper)
Video Editor: Stacy Edwards (The Runaway Horse Photographer/Video Editor)
BELMONT STAKES 2018 FIELD (in post position order, with comments)
Belmont Park Race 11 (6-9-18) - Post Time - 6:46pm ET
#1 - Justify (4-5) - The unbeaten Triple Crown hopeful owns descending numbers and might be over the top. Jockey Mike Smith and trainer Bob Baffert know how to win the Belmont Stakes. His best chance is to control proceedings throughout, just like American Pharoah did in 2015.
#2 - Free Drop Billy (30-1) - Son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags is firing bullets for this and might show more speed than expected.
#3 - Bravazo (8-1) - Preakness runner-up is rounding back into form and is capable of turning the tables on Justify. His trainer D. Wayne Lukas has saddled four Belmont Stakes winners.
#4 - Hofburg (9-2) - Florida Derby runner-up found trouble in the 20-horse Derby stampede. He is lightly raced and appears to be sitting on a top effort. He has the best long distance pedigree, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and trainer Bill Mott have both won the Belmont Stakes before.
#5 - Restoring Hope (30-1) - Wood Memorial show finisher disliked the sloppy track in the Pat Day Mile. He is the other Baffert runner.
#6 - Gronkowski (12-1) - Got sick and missed the Kentucky Derby, and his new trainer Chad Brown chose this ambitious spot for his US bow. He is training well, and jockey Jose Ortiz guided home Tapwrit in the 2017 Belmont Stakes.
#7 - Tenfold (12-1) - Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing. He tries to give trainer Steve Asmussen his second Belmont Stakes winner (saddled 2016 Belmont hero Creator).
#8 - Vino Rosso (8-1) - Wood Memorial winner raced wide from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and the wet track did not help either. He can bounce back for John Velazquez (2 Belmont wins) and Todd Pletcher (3 Belmont Stakes wins).
#9 - Noble Indy (30-1) - He is the second entrant for Pletcher. He failed to show his customary early speed from post 19 in the Kentucky Derby. He was all over the pace in his game G2 LA Derby win, and he should be close up from the outset under Javier Castellano.
#10 - Blended Citizen (15-1) - G3 Peter Pan winner is the only entrant with Belmont Park experience, and two of his wins were at 9f. He is improving and should be rallying from off the pace. He he seems to be improving at the right time.
Written by Jarrod Horak (The Runaway Horse Founder and Handicapper)
Photo by Josh Chicorelli (The Runaway Horse Handicapper)
Video Editor: Stacy Edwards (The Runaway Horse Photographer/Video Editor)
Saturday, June 2, 2018
Belmont Stakes 2018 Blog and Video featuring Triple Crown hopeful Justify
Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Justify is one race away from sweeping the 2018 Triple Crown series for trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith.
Bob Baffert had three runners win the Derby and Preakness before losing the Belmont Stakes (War Emblem, Silver Charm, Real Quiet). Point Given was his first Belmont Stakes winner in 2001, and American Pharoah completed the Triple Crown sweep with a front running victory in the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
Veteran jockey Mike Smith used to be a regular on the New York circuit back in the day, and he has two Belmont Stakes wins to his credit (Drosselmeyer, Palace Malice).
With a bit more than a week to go, up to eleven horses are expected to try to spoil Justify’s Triple Crown party.
Belmont Stakes 2018 Probable Field (as of 6-1-18):
Bandua: His trainer Dermot Weld saddled 1990 Belmont Stakes winner Go and Go. As of this writing, his chances of shipping to New York are 50/50.
Blended Citizen: Doug O’Neill’s Peter Pan Stakes winner can seemingly run all day. The last Peter Pan winner to capture the Belmont Stakes was Tonalist in 2014.
Bravazo: The G2 Risen Star winner returned to form in a strong place finish in the Preakness Stakes. Wayne Lukas turned back the clock and worked the son of Awesome Again at flat mile at Churchill Downs earlier this week.
Free Drop Billy: Trainer Dale Romans says the longer the better for the son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags. Look for him to stalk the Belmont pace under Robby Albarado.
Gronkowski: He got sick and missed a scheduled start in the Kentucky Derby. Chad Brown trains the overseas synthetic specialist now, and he had his first Belmont Stakes workout on May 26. He is expected to work one more time this weekend. His jockey Jose Ortiz won last year's Belmont aboard Tapwrit.
Hofburg: Bill Mott won the 2010 Belmont Stakes with Drosselmeyer, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. guided Creator home in the 2016 Belmont Stakes. This lightly raced colt was 2nd in the Florida Derby and 7th in the Kentucky Derby in his last two starts.
Justify: The Triple Crown is clearly within reach for the unbeaten son of Scat Daddy. He fired a big half-mile bullet workout at Churchill Downs on May 29. Look for him to be on or near the lead with 2-3 furlongs to go, and that is where the litmus test begins.
Noble Indy: His trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners, and Jockey Javier Castellano is still searching for his first Belmont victory. The LA Derby hero was hung out to dry from post 19 on a wet track in the Kentucky Derby. He has speed, is training well, and should be forwardly placed on June 9.
Restoring Hope: Justify’s stablemate failed to handle the wet surface in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Before that, he landed the show in the Wood Memorial. Flavien Prat will ride the grinding type.
Seahenge: He won an overseas Group 2 event last year as a juvenile for Aidan O’Brien. In his last two starts, he was 5th in the UAE Derby and 7th in the Pat Day Mile.
Tenfold: The Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing for Steve Asmussen (saddled Belmont Stakes winner Creator in 2016). He will probably stalk the pace at Big Sandy.
Vino Rosso: The Wood Memorial winner had no shot from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and he ended up a respectable 9th on a wet track that day. His sire Curlin just missed in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, and his rider John Velazquez has two Belmont wins (Rags to Riches, Union Rags). As mentioned earlier, trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners.
Bob Baffert had three runners win the Derby and Preakness before losing the Belmont Stakes (War Emblem, Silver Charm, Real Quiet). Point Given was his first Belmont Stakes winner in 2001, and American Pharoah completed the Triple Crown sweep with a front running victory in the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
Veteran jockey Mike Smith used to be a regular on the New York circuit back in the day, and he has two Belmont Stakes wins to his credit (Drosselmeyer, Palace Malice).
With a bit more than a week to go, up to eleven horses are expected to try to spoil Justify’s Triple Crown party.
Belmont Stakes 2018 Probable Field (as of 6-1-18):
Bandua: His trainer Dermot Weld saddled 1990 Belmont Stakes winner Go and Go. As of this writing, his chances of shipping to New York are 50/50.
Blended Citizen: Doug O’Neill’s Peter Pan Stakes winner can seemingly run all day. The last Peter Pan winner to capture the Belmont Stakes was Tonalist in 2014.
Bravazo: The G2 Risen Star winner returned to form in a strong place finish in the Preakness Stakes. Wayne Lukas turned back the clock and worked the son of Awesome Again at flat mile at Churchill Downs earlier this week.
Free Drop Billy: Trainer Dale Romans says the longer the better for the son of 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags. Look for him to stalk the Belmont pace under Robby Albarado.
Gronkowski: He got sick and missed a scheduled start in the Kentucky Derby. Chad Brown trains the overseas synthetic specialist now, and he had his first Belmont Stakes workout on May 26. He is expected to work one more time this weekend. His jockey Jose Ortiz won last year's Belmont aboard Tapwrit.
Hofburg: Bill Mott won the 2010 Belmont Stakes with Drosselmeyer, and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. guided Creator home in the 2016 Belmont Stakes. This lightly raced colt was 2nd in the Florida Derby and 7th in the Kentucky Derby in his last two starts.
Justify: The Triple Crown is clearly within reach for the unbeaten son of Scat Daddy. He fired a big half-mile bullet workout at Churchill Downs on May 29. Look for him to be on or near the lead with 2-3 furlongs to go, and that is where the litmus test begins.
Noble Indy: His trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners, and Jockey Javier Castellano is still searching for his first Belmont victory. The LA Derby hero was hung out to dry from post 19 on a wet track in the Kentucky Derby. He has speed, is training well, and should be forwardly placed on June 9.
Restoring Hope: Justify’s stablemate failed to handle the wet surface in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard. Before that, he landed the show in the Wood Memorial. Flavien Prat will ride the grinding type.
Seahenge: He won an overseas Group 2 event last year as a juvenile for Aidan O’Brien. In his last two starts, he was 5th in the UAE Derby and 7th in the Pat Day Mile.
Tenfold: The Preakness show finisher is lightly raced and on the upswing for Steve Asmussen (saddled Belmont Stakes winner Creator in 2016). He will probably stalk the pace at Big Sandy.
Vino Rosso: The Wood Memorial winner had no shot from post 18 in the Kentucky Derby, and he ended up a respectable 9th on a wet track that day. His sire Curlin just missed in the 2007 Belmont Stakes, and his rider John Velazquez has two Belmont wins (Rags to Riches, Union Rags). As mentioned earlier, trainer Todd Pletcher has saddled three Belmont Stakes winners.
Saturday, May 26, 2018
Friday, May 4, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018 Update: Justify Headlines Derby Field
Post positions have been drawn for Kentucky Derby 2018 and we are a few days away from the big dance. Justify, the 3-1 morning line favorite, will break from post position seven.
Inner posts can be the kiss of death in the Derby. My Derby top Lookin At Lucky had a miserable trip from the rail in 2010, but came back two weeks later to capture the Preakness.
My Derby top Union Rags was shuffled out of contention from an inner post in 2012 but returned five weeks later to capture the Belmont Stakes. His son Free Drop Billy drew post two this year and might get shuffled back early.
For Derby post positions, I want my top win contenders to be as far away from the rail post as possible and 2015 was a good example. Early/pressing type American Pharoah drew post 18 and moved in a bit after scratches. He was free and clear and in the hunt throughout and his outer draw was the key to his victory over Firing Line and Dortmund.
Nyquist stalked the pace from post 13 en route to a 1-1/4 length victory over late striding Exaggerator in Kentucky Derby 2016.
The last four Derby winners (California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming) all had early/pressing versatility and comfortable forwardly placed trips from advantageous post positions.
From a 2018 post position standpoint, all of the main contenders landed decent positions. I think Mendelssohn did very well to land post 14. He should attend the pace while in the clear, and his draw seems to enhance his chances.
Bolt d’Oro was a big post position winner after landing 11. He projects a free and clear stalking trip.
Good Magic could fall into a beautiful ground saving stalking trip behind the speed. He could easily ride the inner portion of the track to victory.
Magnum Moon should not have any issues from post 16 and will probably stalk the pace outside.
As for post time favorite Justify, he did okay getting post 7. The key to his success is relaxing early behind likely front runner Promises Fulfilled from post 3. Flameaway has been on the engine this week, and he figures to attend the pace from post 4.
Audible is versatile and Javier Castellano will probably take up a tactical position from post 5.
At the other end of the spectrum, Firenze Fire drew the dreaded rail, but he was not a serious top four contender anyway. Combatant might have a tough go of it from post 20.
Noble Indy might be in trouble from post 19. He likes to be forwardly placed and could end up wide chasing lively fractions.
Solomini does not really have an effective winning running style, and whatever Flavien Prat decides, he better make a quick decision from post 17.
Vino Rosso will likely be coming from off the pace under John Velazquez from post 18. I would not say that he was a post position winner. It all depends on the break, and he may or may not end up with a wide or uncomfortable journey.
Everybody else did fine in the draw department including Lone Sailor (post 8), Hofburg (9), My Boy Jack (10), Enticed, (12), Bravazo, (13), and Instilled Regard (15). Blended Citizen is on the also-eligible list.
Jarrod Horak’s Final “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.20 (10/70) at Santa Anita Park on April 28.
Comments: He has been my top ranked Derby contender since I rolled out my first list on 9-25-17, and I see no reason to abandon him now. His six lifetime starts have produced four wins, a second, and a third, and the 3-time graded stakes winner (2 grade one wins) has a versatile running style. He had his first Derby work at Santa Anita Park on April 22. In that move, he was eager to work, getting his first half-mile in 46.60, and cruising through five panels in a brisk 58.40. He finished his work on the clubhouse turn under slight urging. In his final Derby work on April 28, he worked a rock solid solo half-mile under a very still Victor Espinoza, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times (War Emblem, California Chrome, American Pharaoh).
Derby Points (104)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.20 (8/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: The 2-year-old champion was a flat 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but he quickly put that effort in the rear view mirror after a rock solid stalk and pounce victory from an outer post position in the Blue Grass Stakes (150 Final Rating) at Keeneland on April 7. The 2017 BC Juvenile remains his best overall number, which is not a great sign, but the Blue Grass was definitely a step in the right direction. Trainer Chad Brown has methodically brought him along slowly this year, and he appears to be sitting on a top effort in the Kentucky Derby. His April 21 workout at Keeneland was excellent. The solo half-mile move was strong from start to finish, and he went an additional eighth of a mile in 1:01.40, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.60. He had his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 28, and once again, he was impressive. His gallops leading up to the Derby have been strong as well.
Derby Points (134)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (39/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: There is not much that this New York-bred colt cannot do. He brings a four-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby, and he beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He sat in 2nd in his romping Holy Bull Stakes victory (moderate pace). In the Florida Derby, the pace was smoking hot, and he rallied from 8th place. Due to his longstanding relationship with trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Javier Castellano chose Audible over Bolt d’Oro for the Kentucky Derby. The $500,000 colt has never been a strong work horse, but his April 13 bullet was an exception. In that move, he worked inside older stablemate You’re to Blame, and finished on even terms after moving outside (pulled clear on the gallop out in 1:02.22). He worked in company with 2017 Derby also-ran Patch on April 20, and pulled well clear on the gallop out in 1:15.80. The only possible knock in his pedigree, which is not suited to a mile and a quarter.
Derby Points (110)
(4) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 147 (SA Derby, SA, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:25.20 (1/1) at Santa Anita Park on April 27.
Comments: The Kentucky Derby favorite has been going great guns since his sharp SA Derby wire job under Mike Smith. He had the first of his two Derby workouts at Santa Anita Park on April 21, and it was a solid move in company with Zipman. He got five furlongs in 1:00.80 and six panels in 1:13.20 before galloping out seven-eighths in 1:26.80 under his exercise rider Drayden Van Dyke. He started slow and finished fast, getting his final three furlongs in 36.00. In his final Derby move on April 27, he worked a strong seven panels (1:25.20) in company with recent maiden winner Longden (1-for-6 career record). Baffert caught the splits on his watch in 12.40, 24.40, 36.60, 49.20, 1:00.80, and 1:12.60. He galloped out a mile in 1:39.80. There is no denying his talent, and he is coming up to the race perfectly, but the 20-horse Derby stampede is a tall order for such an inexperienced horse.
Derby Points (100)
(5) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Arkansas Derby, OP, 4-14-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :47.40 (4/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: He used his tactical speed and strong finishing kick to perfection in his first three wins, including a big Derby points race tally in the Rebel Stakes. He brought two bullet workouts into the Arkansas Derby, and went to the lead (slow pace) and never looked back in an easy triumph over pace presser Quip. It is easy to look good visually when everything is handed to you on a silver platter, and the same can be said of Justify. How will he handle a less than ideal trip in 20-horse Derby field? Apollo in 1882 was the last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby. He returned to his Palm Beach Downs base in Florida after the Arkansas Derby, and shipped to Churchill Downs on April 23.
Derby Points (150)
(6) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Aidan O’Brien)
Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17)
Comments: The UAE Derby has not been the preferred road to the Kentucky Derby to say the least, but this colt won the aforementioned Dubai race by a commanding eighteen lengths. Beholder’s $3 million half-brother shipped to Del Mar and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. In seven lifetime starts, he rattled off four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. He is one of the most intriguing overseas invaders to ever compete at Churchill Downs. He has arrived in Louisville and had his initial visit under the Twin Spires on May 3.
Derby Points (100)
(7) VINO ROSSO (Curlin - Mythical Bride, by Street Cry)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Wood Memorial, AQU, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.20 (1/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: The Wood Memorial hero has been hitting all the right notes since that breakout performance. In his workout on April 20, he drew away from older stakes winner Outplay, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.77. John Velazquez is his Derby pilot, and he has the pedigree to handle ten furlongs.
Derby Points (107)
(8) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.60 (4/9) at Santa Anita Park on April 29.
Comments: Gem of consistency has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in all six starts. He has not won since breaking his maiden in his career debut, but he did cross the line first in the Los Alamitos Futurity (disqualified and placed 3rd). He has not shown a winning spirit in the stakes ranks, and the hard trying grinder has not developed a winning running style. He fired a three furlong bullet on April 23, and his final Derby move on April 29 was solid. In his latest work at Santa Anita, he galloped out seven furlongs in 1:28.20 and changed leads on time, something he has not always done. Baffert has said that he will instruct jockey Flavien Prat to take him back and let him finish in the Derby, and that strategy was successful for him in the Los Al Fururity late last year.
Derby Points (54)
(9) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (31/87) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: He earned a 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and duplicated that number in in his first start this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd). In his final Derby prep on April 7, he was placed 3rd via disqualification in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (138 Final Rating). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He uncorked a big bullet at Churchill Downs on April 21, and jogged a mile on April 24. He might be rounding back into top form.
Derby Points (44)
(10) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (24/43) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: The Louisiana Derby winner is not afraid to get into a pace battle, and that determination to win is a big asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby. His LA Derby pilot John Velazquez has opted to ride Vino Rosso in the Derby, and Florent Geroux is his new pilot after Quip, another WinStar runner, opted to point to the Preakness Stakes. He had his first Derby workout on April 6, and breezed again in Florida on April 13. In his April 20 move, he was well clear of overmatched workmate Road to Damascus.
Derby Points (110)
(11) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:00.25 (2/7) at Palm Meadows on April 26.
Comments: The Champagne Stakes show finisher (Good Magic 2nd) ended his 2-year-old campaign with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The latter key race produced subsequent stakes winners Bravazo, Diamond King, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Reride. He was 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. In his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial on April 7 (141 Final Rating), he stalked, took the lead, and was second best behind sharp winner Vino Rosso. In his latest workout on April 19, he traveled in company with Take Charge Paula, and he edged clear of his multiple Grade 2-placed workmate. It was a solid morning move, but I am concerned that his best speed rating was earned in a one-turn mile event.
Derby Points (103)
THE NEXT NINE:
(12) Hofburg - (40 points) - Bill Mott’s Florida Derby runner-up late bloomer appears to be developing rapidly. He worked in company with Good Samaritan on April 15, and got the better of his classy older work mate by a head. They galloped out 5f in 1:01.37, and kept on going another furlong (1:15.30). He drilled a five furlong bullet on April 22 in 1:01.40 (1/6), and impressed again in his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 29. In his latest move, he worked in company with 3-year-old filly Villamay, and he worked a strong half-mile with an energetic gallop out. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be his Kentucky Derby pilot. Like many others, he appears to be peaking at the right time, but looking ahead, the Belmont Stakes might be his coming out party, along with Vino Rosso.
(13) My Boy Jack (32 points) - The late runner definitely earned his Derby stripes in the Sham Stakes (3rd), Southwest Stakes (1st), LA Derby (3rd), and Lexington Stakes (1st). He could easily land a share for Team Desormeaux if the Derby pace heats up, but at this stage he seems to prefer a mile and a sixteenth. West Point Thoroughbreds has purchased an interest in the Creative Cause colt. His lone Derby breeze was an easy five furlong maintenance move in 1:03.20 (46/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
(14) Flameaway - (70 points) - He ranks up there with My Boy Jack as a very likeable overachiever. He has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf, and has competed in eight stakes races with four wins, and a pair of 2nds. The early/pressing type never stops trying and has been on the muscle in his exercise leading up to the Derby. He breezed 5f in 1:00.40 (12/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and came back with a half-mile breeze in :47.80 (2/87) at Churchill on April 28. Jose Lezcano is his Derby pilot.
(15) Lone Sailor - (40 points) - His lone points race success was a rallying 2nd in the LA Derby. He will be passing tired horses in the Kentucky Derby, and a minor award is not impossible, especially if the pace is swift. On April 19, he drilled a five furlong bullet in :57.60 (1/19) at Churchill Downs, and his final Derby move was a four furlong breeze in :48.00 (13/75) on April 27.
(16) Combatant - (32 points) - He settled for minor awards in all five of his Derby points race events. The late mover will be passing tired horses, and he can be used in the trifecta and superfecta.
(17) Instilled Regard (29 points) - A couple of late defections helped land him in the Derby field. His improvement pattern ended after his Jan. 13 Lecomte win, and that is not a positive pattern. He worked 5f in 1:01.00 (37/96) at Santa Anita on April 21, and came back with another five furlong move in 1:00.80 (3/62) at that same venue on April 29.
(18) Firenze Fire - (39 points) - He is easy to root for, but a mile and a quarter is too far. 25 of his 39 Kentucky Derby points were earned in one-turn mile races (Champagne, Jerome, Gotham). He breezed 3f in 39.70 (35/37) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on April 21, and returned with an easy half-mile breeze in 50.00 (52/83) at that same venue on April 28.
(19) Bravazo - (54 points) - He qualified for the Derby with a game prominent throughout victory in the Risen Star, but was up the track when last seen in the LA Derby. The Wayne Lukas trainee worked six furlongs from the gate at Churchill Downs in 1:15/40 (1/3) on April 20, and his final Derby breeze was a five-eighths exercise in 1:01.40 (11/55) on April 28.
(20) Promises Fulfilled - (50 points) - The Dale Romans trainee is the likely Derby front runner, but he probably won’t be around at the finish. He went all the way in the Fountain of Youth, but got caught in a speed duel before throwing in the towel in the Florida Derby. He breezed 5f in 59.20 (4/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and went that same distance in 1:00.40 (4/55) on April 28. Like Bravazo, he may have peaked over the winter.
(21) Blended Citizen (22 points) - The Derby also-eligible needs one defection to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Even if he gets in, he faces a very tall order from the far outside post position. He seems to prefer synthetic or turf footing.
Inner posts can be the kiss of death in the Derby. My Derby top Lookin At Lucky had a miserable trip from the rail in 2010, but came back two weeks later to capture the Preakness.
My Derby top Union Rags was shuffled out of contention from an inner post in 2012 but returned five weeks later to capture the Belmont Stakes. His son Free Drop Billy drew post two this year and might get shuffled back early.
For Derby post positions, I want my top win contenders to be as far away from the rail post as possible and 2015 was a good example. Early/pressing type American Pharoah drew post 18 and moved in a bit after scratches. He was free and clear and in the hunt throughout and his outer draw was the key to his victory over Firing Line and Dortmund.
Nyquist stalked the pace from post 13 en route to a 1-1/4 length victory over late striding Exaggerator in Kentucky Derby 2016.
The last four Derby winners (California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, Always Dreaming) all had early/pressing versatility and comfortable forwardly placed trips from advantageous post positions.
From a 2018 post position standpoint, all of the main contenders landed decent positions. I think Mendelssohn did very well to land post 14. He should attend the pace while in the clear, and his draw seems to enhance his chances.
Bolt d’Oro was a big post position winner after landing 11. He projects a free and clear stalking trip.
Good Magic could fall into a beautiful ground saving stalking trip behind the speed. He could easily ride the inner portion of the track to victory.
Magnum Moon should not have any issues from post 16 and will probably stalk the pace outside.
As for post time favorite Justify, he did okay getting post 7. The key to his success is relaxing early behind likely front runner Promises Fulfilled from post 3. Flameaway has been on the engine this week, and he figures to attend the pace from post 4.
Audible is versatile and Javier Castellano will probably take up a tactical position from post 5.
At the other end of the spectrum, Firenze Fire drew the dreaded rail, but he was not a serious top four contender anyway. Combatant might have a tough go of it from post 20.
Noble Indy might be in trouble from post 19. He likes to be forwardly placed and could end up wide chasing lively fractions.
Solomini does not really have an effective winning running style, and whatever Flavien Prat decides, he better make a quick decision from post 17.
Vino Rosso will likely be coming from off the pace under John Velazquez from post 18. I would not say that he was a post position winner. It all depends on the break, and he may or may not end up with a wide or uncomfortable journey.
Everybody else did fine in the draw department including Lone Sailor (post 8), Hofburg (9), My Boy Jack (10), Enticed, (12), Bravazo, (13), and Instilled Regard (15). Blended Citizen is on the also-eligible list.
Jarrod Horak’s Final “Exceptional Eleven" Kentucky Derby 2018 Contenders
(1) BOLT D’ORO (Medaglia d’Oro - Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
Trainer (Mick Ruis) - Owner (Ruis Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 143 (San Felipe Stakes, SA, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :48.20 (10/70) at Santa Anita Park on April 28.
Comments: He has been my top ranked Derby contender since I rolled out my first list on 9-25-17, and I see no reason to abandon him now. His six lifetime starts have produced four wins, a second, and a third, and the 3-time graded stakes winner (2 grade one wins) has a versatile running style. He had his first Derby work at Santa Anita Park on April 22. In that move, he was eager to work, getting his first half-mile in 46.60, and cruising through five panels in a brisk 58.40. He finished his work on the clubhouse turn under slight urging. In his final Derby work on April 28, he worked a rock solid solo half-mile under a very still Victor Espinoza, who has won the Kentucky Derby three times (War Emblem, California Chrome, American Pharaoh).
Derby Points (104)
(2) GOOD MAGIC (Curlin - Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun)
Trainer (Chad Brown)
Owner (e Five Racing Thoroughbreds and Stonestreet Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 153 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:01.20 (8/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: The 2-year-old champion was a flat 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but he quickly put that effort in the rear view mirror after a rock solid stalk and pounce victory from an outer post position in the Blue Grass Stakes (150 Final Rating) at Keeneland on April 7. The 2017 BC Juvenile remains his best overall number, which is not a great sign, but the Blue Grass was definitely a step in the right direction. Trainer Chad Brown has methodically brought him along slowly this year, and he appears to be sitting on a top effort in the Kentucky Derby. His April 21 workout at Keeneland was excellent. The solo half-mile move was strong from start to finish, and he went an additional eighth of a mile in 1:01.40, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14.60. He had his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 28, and once again, he was impressive. His gallops leading up to the Derby have been strong as well.
Derby Points (134)
(3) AUDIBLE (Into Mischief - Blue Devil Bel, by Gilded Time)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm, China Horse Club, SF Racing)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 158 (Florida Derby, GP, 3-31-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (39/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: There is not much that this New York-bred colt cannot do. He brings a four-race win streak into the Kentucky Derby, and he beat you from anywhere on the racetrack. He sat in 2nd in his romping Holy Bull Stakes victory (moderate pace). In the Florida Derby, the pace was smoking hot, and he rallied from 8th place. Due to his longstanding relationship with trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Javier Castellano chose Audible over Bolt d’Oro for the Kentucky Derby. The $500,000 colt has never been a strong work horse, but his April 13 bullet was an exception. In that move, he worked inside older stablemate You’re to Blame, and finished on even terms after moving outside (pulled clear on the gallop out in 1:02.22). He worked in company with 2017 Derby also-ran Patch on April 20, and pulled well clear on the gallop out in 1:15.80. The only possible knock in his pedigree, which is not suited to a mile and a quarter.
Derby Points (110)
(4) JUSTIFY (Scat Daddy - Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper)
Trainer (Bob Baffert)
Owners (China Horse Club, Head of Plains, Starlight Racing, WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 147 (SA Derby, SA, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 7f in 1:25.20 (1/1) at Santa Anita Park on April 27.
Comments: The Kentucky Derby favorite has been going great guns since his sharp SA Derby wire job under Mike Smith. He had the first of his two Derby workouts at Santa Anita Park on April 21, and it was a solid move in company with Zipman. He got five furlongs in 1:00.80 and six panels in 1:13.20 before galloping out seven-eighths in 1:26.80 under his exercise rider Drayden Van Dyke. He started slow and finished fast, getting his final three furlongs in 36.00. In his final Derby move on April 27, he worked a strong seven panels (1:25.20) in company with recent maiden winner Longden (1-for-6 career record). Baffert caught the splits on his watch in 12.40, 24.40, 36.60, 49.20, 1:00.80, and 1:12.60. He galloped out a mile in 1:39.80. There is no denying his talent, and he is coming up to the race perfectly, but the 20-horse Derby stampede is a tall order for such an inexperienced horse.
Derby Points (100)
(5) MAGNUM MOON (Malibu Moon - Dazzling Song, by Unbridled’s Song)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Robert and Lowana Low)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 149 (Arkansas Derby, OP, 4-14-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :47.40 (4/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: He used his tactical speed and strong finishing kick to perfection in his first three wins, including a big Derby points race tally in the Rebel Stakes. He brought two bullet workouts into the Arkansas Derby, and went to the lead (slow pace) and never looked back in an easy triumph over pace presser Quip. It is easy to look good visually when everything is handed to you on a silver platter, and the same can be said of Justify. How will he handle a less than ideal trip in 20-horse Derby field? Apollo in 1882 was the last unraced 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby. He returned to his Palm Beach Downs base in Florida after the Arkansas Derby, and shipped to Churchill Downs on April 23.
Derby Points (150)
(6) MENDELSSOHN (More Than Ready - Song of Bernadette, by Bernardini)
Trainer (Aidan O’Brien)
Owners (Derek Smith, Michael Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 132 (BC Juvenile Turf, DMR, 11-4-17)
Comments: The UAE Derby has not been the preferred road to the Kentucky Derby to say the least, but this colt won the aforementioned Dubai race by a commanding eighteen lengths. Beholder’s $3 million half-brother shipped to Del Mar and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last fall. In seven lifetime starts, he rattled off four wins in Dubai, Great Britain, Ireland, and the United States, and he has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf. He is one of the most intriguing overseas invaders to ever compete at Churchill Downs. He has arrived in Louisville and had his initial visit under the Twin Spires on May 3.
Derby Points (100)
(7) VINO ROSSO (Curlin - Mythical Bride, by Street Cry)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 150 (Wood Memorial, AQU, 4-7-18)
Latest Workout: 4f bullet in 47.20 (1/75) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: The Wood Memorial hero has been hitting all the right notes since that breakout performance. In his workout on April 20, he drew away from older stakes winner Outplay, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:16.77. John Velazquez is his Derby pilot, and he has the pedigree to handle ten furlongs.
Derby Points (107)
(8) SOLOMINI (Curlin - Surf Song, by Storm Cat)
Trainer (Bob Baffert) - Owner (Zayat Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (BC Juvenile, 11-4-17)
Latest Workout: 6f in 1:14.60 (4/9) at Santa Anita Park on April 29.
Comments: Gem of consistency has finished 1st, 2nd, or 3rd in all six starts. He has not won since breaking his maiden in his career debut, but he did cross the line first in the Los Alamitos Futurity (disqualified and placed 3rd). He has not shown a winning spirit in the stakes ranks, and the hard trying grinder has not developed a winning running style. He fired a three furlong bullet on April 23, and his final Derby move on April 29 was solid. In his latest work at Santa Anita, he galloped out seven furlongs in 1:28.20 and changed leads on time, something he has not always done. Baffert has said that he will instruct jockey Flavien Prat to take him back and let him finish in the Derby, and that strategy was successful for him in the Los Al Fururity late last year.
Derby Points (54)
(9) FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags - Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway)
Trainer (Dale Romans) - Owner (Albaugh Family Stables)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 140 (Holy Bull Stakes, GP, 2-3-18)
Latest Workout: 4f in :49.40 (31/87) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
Comments: He earned a 140 Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland last fall, and duplicated that number in in his first start this year in the Holy Bull (finished 2nd). In his final Derby prep on April 7, he was placed 3rd via disqualification in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland (138 Final Rating). He is one of four original members of the “exceptional eleven,” along with Bolt d’Oro, Good Magic, and Solomini. He uncorked a big bullet at Churchill Downs on April 21, and jogged a mile on April 24. He might be rounding back into top form.
Derby Points (44)
(10) NOBLE INDY (Take Charge Indy - Noble Maz, by Storm Boot)
Trainer (Todd Pletcher) - Owner (WinStar Farm)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 134 (LA Derby, FG, 3-24-18)
Latest Workout: 5f in 1:01.60 (24/43) at Churchill Downs on April 27.
Comments: The Louisiana Derby winner is not afraid to get into a pace battle, and that determination to win is a big asset in a race like the Kentucky Derby. His LA Derby pilot John Velazquez has opted to ride Vino Rosso in the Derby, and Florent Geroux is his new pilot after Quip, another WinStar runner, opted to point to the Preakness Stakes. He had his first Derby workout on April 6, and breezed again in Florida on April 13. In his April 20 move, he was well clear of overmatched workmate Road to Damascus.
Derby Points (110)
(11) ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro - It’s Tricky, by Mineshaft)
Trainer (Kiaran McLaughlin) - Owner (Godolphin Racing, LLC.)
Top Today’s Racing Digest Final Rating: 146 (Gotham Stakes, AQU, 3-10-18)
Latest Workout: 5f breeze in 1:00.25 (2/7) at Palm Meadows on April 26.
Comments: The Champagne Stakes show finisher (Good Magic 2nd) ended his 2-year-old campaign with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. The latter key race produced subsequent stakes winners Bravazo, Diamond King, Promises Fulfilled, Quip, and Reride. He was 4th from the inside post in his Holy Bull return, but bounced back with a win from the outside post in the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct on March 10. In his final Derby prep in the Wood Memorial on April 7 (141 Final Rating), he stalked, took the lead, and was second best behind sharp winner Vino Rosso. In his latest workout on April 19, he traveled in company with Take Charge Paula, and he edged clear of his multiple Grade 2-placed workmate. It was a solid morning move, but I am concerned that his best speed rating was earned in a one-turn mile event.
Derby Points (103)
THE NEXT NINE:
(12) Hofburg - (40 points) - Bill Mott’s Florida Derby runner-up late bloomer appears to be developing rapidly. He worked in company with Good Samaritan on April 15, and got the better of his classy older work mate by a head. They galloped out 5f in 1:01.37, and kept on going another furlong (1:15.30). He drilled a five furlong bullet on April 22 in 1:01.40 (1/6), and impressed again in his final Derby workout at Churchill Downs on April 29. In his latest move, he worked in company with 3-year-old filly Villamay, and he worked a strong half-mile with an energetic gallop out. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be his Kentucky Derby pilot. Like many others, he appears to be peaking at the right time, but looking ahead, the Belmont Stakes might be his coming out party, along with Vino Rosso.
(13) My Boy Jack (32 points) - The late runner definitely earned his Derby stripes in the Sham Stakes (3rd), Southwest Stakes (1st), LA Derby (3rd), and Lexington Stakes (1st). He could easily land a share for Team Desormeaux if the Derby pace heats up, but at this stage he seems to prefer a mile and a sixteenth. West Point Thoroughbreds has purchased an interest in the Creative Cause colt. His lone Derby breeze was an easy five furlong maintenance move in 1:03.20 (46/55) at Churchill Downs on April 28.
(14) Flameaway - (70 points) - He ranks up there with My Boy Jack as a very likeable overachiever. He has won on dirt, synthetic, and turf, and has competed in eight stakes races with four wins, and a pair of 2nds. The early/pressing type never stops trying and has been on the muscle in his exercise leading up to the Derby. He breezed 5f in 1:00.40 (12/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and came back with a half-mile breeze in :47.80 (2/87) at Churchill on April 28. Jose Lezcano is his Derby pilot.
(15) Lone Sailor - (40 points) - His lone points race success was a rallying 2nd in the LA Derby. He will be passing tired horses in the Kentucky Derby, and a minor award is not impossible, especially if the pace is swift. On April 19, he drilled a five furlong bullet in :57.60 (1/19) at Churchill Downs, and his final Derby move was a four furlong breeze in :48.00 (13/75) on April 27.
(16) Combatant - (32 points) - He settled for minor awards in all five of his Derby points race events. The late mover will be passing tired horses, and he can be used in the trifecta and superfecta.
(17) Instilled Regard (29 points) - A couple of late defections helped land him in the Derby field. His improvement pattern ended after his Jan. 13 Lecomte win, and that is not a positive pattern. He worked 5f in 1:01.00 (37/96) at Santa Anita on April 21, and came back with another five furlong move in 1:00.80 (3/62) at that same venue on April 29.
(18) Firenze Fire - (39 points) - He is easy to root for, but a mile and a quarter is too far. 25 of his 39 Kentucky Derby points were earned in one-turn mile races (Champagne, Jerome, Gotham). He breezed 3f in 39.70 (35/37) at Belmont Park (dirt training) on April 21, and returned with an easy half-mile breeze in 50.00 (52/83) at that same venue on April 28.
(19) Bravazo - (54 points) - He qualified for the Derby with a game prominent throughout victory in the Risen Star, but was up the track when last seen in the LA Derby. The Wayne Lukas trainee worked six furlongs from the gate at Churchill Downs in 1:15/40 (1/3) on April 20, and his final Derby breeze was a five-eighths exercise in 1:01.40 (11/55) on April 28.
(20) Promises Fulfilled - (50 points) - The Dale Romans trainee is the likely Derby front runner, but he probably won’t be around at the finish. He went all the way in the Fountain of Youth, but got caught in a speed duel before throwing in the towel in the Florida Derby. He breezed 5f in 59.20 (4/52) at Churchill Downs on April 21, and went that same distance in 1:00.40 (4/55) on April 28. Like Bravazo, he may have peaked over the winter.
(21) Blended Citizen (22 points) - The Derby also-eligible needs one defection to make the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Even if he gets in, he faces a very tall order from the far outside post position. He seems to prefer synthetic or turf footing.
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